C08QT

Quantitative Methods 1 Examples using the Binomial distribution

Handout 3

DIS

1. Q. Items are taken at regular intervals from a production line and tested each item is then classied as satisfactory or defective. When the process is in control it produces items, of which 8% on average are defective. (a) Find the probability (assuming the process is in control) that, of 16 items tested, 5 or more will be found to be defective. (b) If 16 items are tested and 5 are found to be defective, discuss briey whether you think the process is actually in control. A. Let X be the number of items out of 16 found to be defective. (a) The Binomial model is appropriate with number of trials n = 16 and p = P(any item is defective) = 0.08. So P(X 5) = 1 - P(X 4) = 1 - 0.9932 (from NCST tables page 16) = 0.0068 (b) If p = 0.08 the probability of getting 5 or more defective items out of 16 is very small (0.0068) a chance of less than 1 in 100 so we have observed an extremely unlikely event. This should cause us to have serious doubts about the assumption that p = 0.08 and in fact suggests that the process is not in control and is operating with P(item is defective) > 0.08. 2. Q. Suppose that 18 rst-class letters are posted at noon one Monday at points around the country. Assuming that 90% of rst-class letters are delivered the next delivery day, nd the probability that 14 or fewer of the 18 posted are delivered on the Tuesday. A. Let X be the number of the 18 which are delivered next day. An appropriate model is X Binomial(18, 0.9) but the tables do not include entries for p = 0.9. So consider the number which are not delivered next day, Y say. Then Y Binomial(18, 0.1). We require: P(X 14) = P(Y 4) = 1 - P(Y 3) = 1 - 0.9018 = 0.0982 (NCST tables page 19). 3. Q. Optical bres of a certain type are cut into lengths of 1 km and collected together into bundles of 20 bres. If the probability of an individual bre being perfect is 0.94 nd the probabilities that: (a) at least 18 of the bres in a bundle are perfect (b) a bundle is perfect (c) a bundle is faulty. A. Let X be the number bres in a bundle which are faulty. Assuming independence from bre to bre, a Binomial model is appropriate with n = 20 and p = 0.06. (a) P(at least 18 perfect) = P(at most 2 faulty) = P(X 2) = 0.8850 (tables page 22) (b) P(a bundle is perfect) = P(X = 0) = 0.2901 (c) P(bundle is faulty) = 1 - 0.2901 = 0.7099

Examples using the Poisson distribution 4. Q. Vehicles pass a point at random times at a rate of 3 vehicles per minute. What is the probability that no vehicles pass in 15 seconds? A. A Poisson model is appropriate with a rate parameter = 0.75. The tables give: P(X = 0) = 0.4771 for = 0.74 P(X = 0) = 0.4677 for = 0.76 Interpolating gives P(X = 0) = 0.4724. Alternatively, use e0.75 = 0.4724. 5. Q. The server on a computer web site can handle up to 8 hits per minute before there is a clear slowing in the response time. (a) If hits arrive a random at a rate of 240 per hour, what is the probability of a slow response in a one minute period? (b) The web site manager wishes to have no more than 10% one minute periods with a slow response. What is the maximum hourly hit rate that the site can handle without upgrading the server? A. The description implies that a Poisson model is appropriate. (a) A rate of 240 hits per hour implies a rate of 4 per minute. P(X > 8) = 1 - P(X 8) = 1 - 0.9786 = 0.0214 (from NCST tables) (b) Need to nd the rate (per minute) such that P(X 8) = 0.90 For Poisson(5.40), the NCST tables give P(X 8) = 0.9027 For Poisson(5.45), the NCST tables give P(X 8) = 0.8986 Using linear interpolation, the required rate = 5.4329 hits per minute So the site could handle up to 5.4329 60 = 326 hits per hour.

Examples using the Normal distribution 6. Q. A machine lls 100 gm jars with instant coee. Assuming that the weights of coee delivered by the machine to the jars can be modelled by a Normal distribution with mean = 101 gm and with standard deviation = 0.4 gm, nd: (a) the probability that the contents of a randomly selected jar are under the advertised weight (b) the interval, symmetrical about the mean, which contains 99% of the delivered weights of coee. A. Let X be the weight of coee delivered by the machine to a randomly selected jar. Then X has a Normal distribution with = 101 gm and = 0.4 gm. (a) We want to nd P(X < 100) The z-score of x = 100 is z = (100 - 101)/0.4 = -2.5 So P(X < 100) = P(Z < -2.5) = P(Z > + 2.5) = 1 - 0.99379 = 0.00621 So about 0.6% of jars are underweight. (b) The 99% z-interval is from -2.58 to +2.58 We nd the corresponding x-interval by nding the x-values which are 2.58 standard deviations below, and above, the mean i.e. x = 101 - 2.58(0.4) and x = 101 + 2.58(0.4) i.e. x = 101 - 1.032 and x = 101 + 1.032 i.e. x = 99.968 and x = 102.032 So 99% of delivered weights are in the interval 99.97 gm to 102.03 gm.

7. Q. Mens sweaters produced by a knitwear manufacturer are made and sold in chest sizes 36, 38, 40, and 42. As part of the results of some market research, the manufacturer is advised that the chest sizes of the adult male population have a symmetrical distribution about a mean of 38.2 and with standard deviation 2.1 there is, in addition, nothing in the data examined to suggest that a Normal model for chest size would be inappropriate. What proportion of sweaters should the manufacturer make in each size ? A. Let X be the chest size of a randomly selected man. We will adopt a Normal model for the distribution of X with = 38.2 and = 2.1. The mid-points between the sweater sizes are 37, 39, and 41. P(X < 37) = P(Z < -1.2/2.1) = P(Z < -0.57) = 1 - 0.7157 = 0.284 P(37 < X < 39) = P(-1.2/2.1 < Z < 0.8/2.1) = P(-0.57 < Z < 0.38) = 0.2157 + 0.1480 = 0.364 P(39 < X < 41) = P(0.8/2.1 < Z < 2.8/2.1) = P(0.38 < Z < 1.33) = 0.9082 - 0.6480 = 0.260 P(X > 41) = P(Z > 2.8/2.1) = P(Z > 1.33) = 1 - 0.9082 = 0.092 So if the manufacturer assumes that when a man buys a sweater, he will buy one whose marked size is nearest to his chest size, the output should consist of 28.4% in size 36, 36.4% in size 38, 26.0% in size 40, and 9.2% in size 42. More realistically, suppose that when a man buys a sweater, he buys one whose marked size is at least as big as his chest size, but not needlessly big. So X < 36 = buy a 36 36 < X < 38 = buy a 38 38 < X < 40 = buy a 40 40 < X < 42 = buy a 42 X > 42 = do not buy P(X < 36) = 0.147 P(38 < X < 40) = 0.342 and P(X > 42) = 0.035 P(36 < X < 38) = 0.315 P(40 < X < 42) = 0.161

So the manufacturer should make his sweaters in the ratios 147 : 315 : 342 : 161. The total 147 of these 4 numbers is 965, so he should make 15.2% ( 965 100) in size 36, 32.6% in size 38, 35.4% in size 40, and 16.7% in size 42.