The Suns Eleven Year Magnetic Reversal Theory

1.

Introduction The presented theory in this draft document uses the speed of the rotating magnetic fields of the Sun in order to calculate the magnetic field activity of the Sun and the number of sunspots which appear on the Suns surface. A sunspot is a place on the Suns surface which is characterized by a very strong magnetic field. Therefore, the number of the sunspots on the Sun is a good indicator of the intensity of the overall Suns magnetic activity. It is well-known that the magnetic field of the Sun peaks every eleven years, a cycle known as the sunspot cycle. At the peak of magnetic activity, the sun records maxima of sunspot numbers on its surface. It should be noted that the length of the sunspot cycle is not always exactly eleven years, to the contrary, it varies as discussed by Mursula and Ulich (1). The presented theory tries to achieve the following (non-exhaustive) goals:

To successfully calculate the length of the sunspot cycle based on the variability of the speeds of the Suns magnetic fields as found by Callebaut (2) To be able to calculate the speeds of the polar magnetic fields based on the sunspot cycle length and the equatorial speed To successfully calculate the varying hemispherical number of sunspots during each sunspot cycle To calculate the positive and negative polarity of the sunspots To depict the polar magnetic reversal event

A correlation between the intensity of the Suns magnetic activity and the variability of the speeds of its magnetic fields is presented in Long Term Variations of the Torsional Oscillations of the Sun
(2). The authors state that the differential rotation of the Sun is least differential during the magnetic

maxima and most differential during the magnetic minima. In other words, the speeds of the equatorial and the two polar speeds (North and South polar speeds of rotation) have the most similar values during the period when a maximal number of sunspots are recorded. The presented theory tries to go along with this finding and tries to calculate speeds of the equatorial and polar fields which fit the behavior described in reference (2). This draft document is structured as follows: In Section 2, the magnetic field theory is described, in Section 3 the calculated values are presented and finally this document is concluded with the essential findings of the new theory.

2. The Magnetic Field Theory of the Sun

As it has been previously stated, the theory bases its calculation on the variability of the speeds of the magnetic fields of the Sun. The theory uses the model depicted in Fig. 1.

Figure 1. The observers model

S marks the polar view of the Sun. Let Ae represent the angular rotation of the equatorial field, An the angular rotation of the north polar magnetic field and As the angular rotation of the south polar magnetic field. O represents an individual observer which travels around the Sun with constant angular speed of Aob. The observer travels the length of the mean of the north polar and equatorial field in one day. Although aware that the speed and the length of the south magnetic field is slightly different from the speed and the length of the north field, we use the length of the north field only for simplicity. Practical evidence has shown that the obtained results do not differ to a great scale. As a consequence of the polar fields change at the end of each sunspot cycle, we observe different travel lengths of the observer if two consecutive sunspot cycles are simulated. For instance, when the north polar magnetic field switches with the south magnetic field and the length and speed of the north magnetic field are lower than the length and speed of the south field, we observe shortened travel length and consequently increased travel time of the observer. The object m represents the direction of the magnetic fields of the Sun. The angular rotation speeds are measured in degrees per day.

The number of sunspots is calculated at each equilibrium point of rotational position (degrees) between the equatorial field and the North or South polar field. Therefore, {fi} represents the position (degrees) of the ith equilibrium point recorded (for North or South polar magnetic field). The number of the sunspots is obtained from Eq. (1):
MS SN
n rth | so th o u

=Ps o

eq

P s o

o b

(1),

where Poseq is the position of the equatorial field (degrees) and Posob is the position of the individual observer. MSSNnorth|south is the number of sunspots on the North and South hemisphere of the Sun respectively. It should be noted that Eq. (1) is performed at each equilibrium point of position between equatorial and polar north field and between equatorial and polar south field, in order to calculate MSSNnorth and MSSNsouth respectively. The length of each sunspot cycle is calculated as sum of the periods (days) between the equilibrium points of position of the equatorial and the polar fields (the equilibrium points will be referred to as taking-over events further on). Since the theory is based on an external individual observer, this theory is referred to as The Observers Magnetic Field Theory of the Sun.

3. The Results
Two types of evaluation of the observers magnetic field theory were performed: a) A static approach; the input parameter of the static approach is the average speed of the equatorial magnetic field. This approach is called static since the Aeq, An and As are simulated with constant values during the known length of the cycle. Considering the differential rotation of the Sun, An and As are calculated as in Eq. (2) and Eq. (3): An = Aeq x FactPN (2) As = Aeq x FactPS (3) where FactPN and FactPS represent the factors of difference in speed of rotation between the equatorial magnetic field and the north and south magnetic fields respectively (see reference 3, The
Internal Rotation of the Sun).

. b) A dynamic approach; in this approach a more realistic scenario is simulated. The input parameters in this scenario are the length of the sunspot cycle and the monthly equatorial speed. Therefore, the value of the speed of the equatorial field is not constant anymore, it is changed every month. The values of the changing equatorial speed of the Sun in the period of the year 1920 till the year 1990 are depicted in Fig. 2.

Figure 2. The dynamic equatorial speed. From Long Term Variations of the Torsional Oscillations of the Sun (2). At each taking-over event, a speed of the North and South polar field is searched in the interval of 36 to 38 days for the North polar field, and in the interval of 36.5 to 38.5 days for the South polar field. The chosen polar speed for that taking-over event is the speed which gives a minimal difference between the real hemispheric sunspot number and the calculated hemispheric sunspot number according to Eq. (1). The simulation efforts were made with specially crafted software application created for this purpose.

3.1. The Static Approach

The static approach is an approach which concentrates on the ability of the observers magnetic field theory to successfully calculate the length of the cycle, not the magnetic intensity. Hence, by the algorithm of the static approach presented in Section 3, it can be easily concluded that the simulation of constant averaged values of the equatorial and polar fields cannot successfully calculate the real hemispherical number of sunspots since the movement of the equatorial and therefore polar fields is certainly not constant (Fig. 2). The intensity of a sunspot cycle (s) used for calculation of the length of the cycle only, is depicted in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4, for North and South polar fields respectively. The calculated sunspot numbers are calculated from averaged equatorial speed of 25.75 days. On the Y-axis of both Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 are presented the sunspot numbers calculated at each taking-over event. On the X-axis a time scale is represented, where the time is measured in bits. One bit represents the time interval measured in days

between each taking-over event. Since all fields of the sun have constant values, accompanied by the constant value of the observer, one bit for the North field has value of 83.78 days and 82.63 for the South field for equatorial speed of 25.75 days and values of FactPN and FactPS 1.443744 and 1.4527033 respectively. As it has been stated earlier, the static approach of this theory does not successfully present the numbers of sunspots on the Suns surface, it is merely used to successfully calculate and visually present the length of the sunspot cycle. Additionally, the sudden peaks evident in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 are also undesirable byproduct of the static unrealistic nature of the simulation and should be neglected for observation.
350 Num of Sunspots ber 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749 515355575961636567697173757779818385878991939597 Tim (bits) e

Figure 3. The static approach Sunspot cycle of the North hemisphere

350 300 Num of Sunspots ber 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749515355575961636567697173757779818385878991939597 Tim (bits) e

Figure 4. The static approach Sunspot cycle of the South hemisphere For several known sunspot cycles the static approach was deployed. For each year in the cycle the appropriate yearly equatorial speed was used in order to calculate averaged equatorial speed for the whole sunspot cycle. The averaged equatorial speed was used as input parameter to the static approach in order to obtain the length of the sunspot cycle. Based on the calculations for many sunspot cycles, certain correlations between the FactPN and FactPS and the cycle length was found. We map the values of FactPN and FactPS for different average equatorial speeds in order to calculate series of lengths of sunspot cycles of 11 years in

Table 1. Furthermore, in Table 2 we present the values of FactPN and FactPS when the average equatorial speed of rotation of the Sun is 25.75 days for lengths of sunspot cycles of different magnitude. Table 1. Values of FactPN/FactPS for the same sunspot cycle length and different equatorial rotation speeds (separated in two sub-tables for clarity). Note that the same length is not always possible because the length of the bits is between 81 and 87 days (the mean of the length is calculated after 10 cycles) Equatorial rotation speed (day) 25.75 25.35 26.3 Equatorial rotation speed (day) Length of sunspot cycle (year) 11.01 11.00 11.01 Length of sunspot cycle (year) 1.443744 1.44458 1.44259 FactPS FactPN North polar rotation speed (day) 37.17641 36.6201 37.9401 South polar rotation speed (day) 25.75 25.35 26.3 11.00 10.99 10.99 1.4527033 1.45342 1.45173 37.40711 36.84419 38.1805

Table 2. Values of FactPN/FactPS for different sunspot cycle lengths and equatorial rotation speed of 25.75 days (separated in two sub-tables for clarity) Length of sunspot cycle (year) 11.01 13.56 8.73 Length of sunspot cycle (year) 11.00 14.02 9.49 FactPN 1.443744 1.44458 1.44259 FactPS 1.4527033 1.45173 1.45342 North polar rotation speed (day) 37.17641 37.19793 37.14669 South polar rotation speed (day) 37.40711 37.38205 37.42556

Strange observation As you can see there is something very strange with the south polar field.

When the factor is decreased this should lead to a shorter sunspot length. We calculate the opposite.... And vice versa

Based on the observations presented in Table 1 and Table 2, it can be easily concluded that even a small change in the equatorial rotation speed of the Sun (and consequently in the polar rotation speed) can result in considerable change in the length of the sunspot cycle. Additionally, we calculated that a difference of only 0.0807 percent in the speed of rotation of the north polar field causes change in the cycle length from 9.64 to 12.49. Generally, in Table 2 we present the interconnectivity between the hemispherical polar speeds and appropriate factors in order to calculate the same cycle length (see 11.0 years, Table 2) we depict greater factor (1.4527033 vs. 1.443744) for slower polar speed (37.40711 vs. 37.17641). In Table 3, the calculated values of averaged sunspot length are presented for six sunspot cycles. The average equatorial speed is calculated from the data presented in Long Term Variations of
the Torsional Oscillations of the Sun (2). We use fixed values of 1.443744 and 1.4527033 for FactPN and

FactPS respectively. Before looking at this table, please remember that a difference of only 0.0807 percent in the speed of rotation of the north polar field causes change in the cycle length from 9.64 to 12.49. Table 3. Calculated sunspot lengths by using the static approach Sunspot cycle duration Average equatorial speed (day) August 1923 September 1933 September 1933 February 1944 February 1944 - April 1954 April 1954 October 1964 October 1964 June 1976 June 1976 September 1986 Conclusion: If we flip poles in every new cycle, then we find the closest values for the length, except for cycle number 3. The 1964 1976 and 1976 1986 periods match with the calculated data. Real sunspot length (year) 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.5 11.7 10.3
N = 10.76

Calculated sunspot length/Pole (years)

S = 11.22

25.70 25.77
25.78 25.75 25.88 25.91

S = 10.91 N= 11.16 S = 11.00 N = 11.73 S = 10.35

N = 11.11 S = 10.87 N = 11.00 S = 10.50 N = 11.91

Remarks: 1. In the timeframe from 1915 till 1990 the Sun's equatorial rate declined from 14.05 to 13.95. This can lead to different fixed factors for the earlier calculated lengths.

2. We also note that the differences in speed from the equator field in the 1964 1976 and 1976 1986 periods are larger then in the previous four. 3. If we make the fourth cycle = 10.5 years for North and South, then we find the following fixed
factors: 1.44350 and 1.45293. If we use these new constants for the first 3 cycles we find the following: Table 4. Calculated sunspot lengths by using 1.44350 and 1.45293 as new fixed factors Sunspot cycle duration Average equatorial speed (day) August 1923 September 1933 September 1933 February 1944 February 1944 - April 1954 April 1954 October 1964 Real sunspot length (year) Calculated sunspot length/Pole 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.5 (year) N: 10.21 S : 10.41 N: 10.57 S = 10.5

25.70 25.77
25.78 25.75

Conclusion: The difference between the cycle lengths can be solved by using other factors for the fixed factors.

Calculation off New Polar Factors for Changing Length Sunspot Cycles Use the constant values of 1.443744 and 1.4527033 of the 2 sunspot cycles for a speed of 25.75 days for the equator. Then increase the speed of the equator to 25.35 days, the fastest value found by Callebaut. This way we observe the maximal length for the southern field and the minimal length for

the northern field.

Results: 1. The Sunspot cycle from 25.35 and 1.443744 decreases in length to 9.24 years 2. The Sunspot cycle from 25.35 and 1.4527033 increases in length to 13.10 years Then decrease the speed of the equator to 26.30 days, the slowest value found by Callebaut. This way we observe the maximal length for the northern field and the minimal length for the southern

field.
Results:

1. The Sunspot cycle from 26.30 and 1.443744 increases in length to 14.76 years

2. The Sunspot cycle from 26.30 and 1.4527033 decreases in length to 9.06 years
CONCLUSION Both hemispheres need to have the same length. So one of them has to change the value of his factor! Example: North is the Dominant Field

Table 5. Calculated sunspot lengths by using new fixed factors for the Southern field Average equatorial speed (day) 25.35 25.75 26.30 FactPN Calculated sunspot length/ North 9.24 11.01 14.76 FactPS 1.454250 1.4527033 1.450587 Calculated sunspot length/ South 9.24 11.00 14.76

1.443744 1.443744 1.443744

South is the Dominant Field

Table 6. Calculated sunspot lengths by using new fixed factors for the Northern field Average equatorial speed (day) 25.35 25.75 26.30 FactPS Calculated sunspot length/South 13.10 11.00 9.06 FactPN 1.445287 1.443744 1.441620 Calculated sunspot length/ North 13.11 11.01 9.07

1.4527033 1.4527033 1.4527033

Study of the Known Solar Cycles By studying the solar cycles we have following remarks:

1. Solar cycle 4 is the longest. Therefore we choose it as the northern

dominant field. This matches with our previous finding.

2. Solar cycle 2 falls slightly out of our calculated lengths with the data from
Callebaut. There are 2 possibilities: A. The equator field was a bit faster B. The length of the cycle is not completely right

To have a length of 9 years for the dominant northern field we calculate a mean equator speed of 25.28 days (calculated length = 8.99 years). The southern field has then a length of 13.55 years.

Table 7 . Some properties of solar cycle 123

Solar cycle number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Starting of solar cycle (mm/yyyy) 3/1755 2 6/1766 6/1775 9/1784 5/1798 8/1810 5/1823 11/1833 7/1843 12/1855 3/1867 12/1878 3/1890 1/1902 8/1913 8/1923 9/1933 2/1944 Solar maximum (mm/yyyy) 6/1761 9/1769 5/1778 2/1788 2/1805 4/1816 11/1829 3/1837 2/1848 2/1860 8/1870 12/1883 1/1893 2/1906 8/1917 4/1928 4/1937 5/1947 Ending of solar cycle (mm/yyyy) 5/1766 5/1775 8/1784 4/1798 7/1810 4/1823 10/1833 3/1837 11/1855 2/1867 11/1878 2/1890 12/1901 7/1913 7/1923 8/1933 1/1944 3/1954

Dominan t polar field S N S N S N S N S N S N S N S N S N

Length of solar cycle (years) 11.25 9.00 9.25 13.67 12.25 12.75 10.5 9.67 12.42 11.25 11.75 11.25 11.83 11.58 10.0 10.08 10.42 10.17

19 20 21 22 23

4/1954 10/1964 6/1976 9/1986 6/1996

3/1957 11/1968 12/1979 7/1989 7/2000

9/1964 5/1976 8/1986 5/1996 9/2007

S N S N S

10.5 11.67 10.25 10.0 11.33

Table from Study of sunspots and sunspot cycles 124 (4)

3.1.1. Change of Polarity of Sunspots It is well known that sunspots change their polarity at each new cycle of the Sun. With the observers theory one can successfully observe the change of polarity of the sunspots as one cycle ends and another one begins. The different polarity of the sunspots is depicted in Fig. 5.

Figure 5. Different sunspot polarities in North and South hemisphere

We observe the change in the speeds of the northern and southern polar fields. In Fig. 6 we

observe the calculated intensity of the sunspot cycle using the static approach. However, since it is obvious that the static approach cannot produce realistic sunspot numbers, we only pay attention to the direction of the depicted magnetic intensity of the Sun, calculated using a modified version of Eq. (1). To differ between the positive and negative polarity of the sunspots, we eliminate the absolute function of Eq. (1). In Fig. 6 we depict a situation where the polarity of the sunspots is N-S. It can be detected by observing the positive values of the first calculated intensities, and by the trend of constant increasing of values (whether positive or negative). Moreover, in Fig. 7 we present the opposite situation. The polarity of the sunspots is S-N. It can be noted that the direction of change of the calculated sunspot numbers is now downwards.

Figure 6. Upward direction of the calculated magnetic intensity of the Sun. It marks N-S polarity of sunspots

Figure 7. Downward direction of the calculated magnetic intensity of the Sun. It marks S-N polarity of sunspots The change of the sunspots polarity implies changes in the speeds of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun. We observe such change relative to a fixed value of equatorial speed of 25.75 days. We obtain N-S and S-N polarized sunspots on different hemispheres of the Sun, by calculated polar field speeds of 37.17641 and 37.40711 days respectively. To conserve the natural law of changing polarity of sunspots at each new cycle, we conclude that the polar speeds must also undergo change. If we assume that the average equatorial speed of the next is also 25.75 days, then the polar speed of 37.17641 days of the previous cycle will have to decrease to 37.40711 and vice versa. 3.1.2. Observing Very Low Sunspot Activity

The period of very low hemispheric sunspot activity during the change of polarity of sunspots can also be observed with the magnetic field theory of the sun. If we add on to the previous example and assume equatorial speed of 25.75, we conclude that change of polarity of the sunspots occurs at polar speeds somewhere around 37.3 days. The graph produced by the static approach shows indeed very low magnetic intensity (Fig. 7). We conclude that change in polar speeds cause the almost-zero activity of the Sun. Therefore, we successfully model the difference in magnetic activity (and therefore the length of the sunspot cycle) of the hemispheres; we model the situation when there is almost-zero sunspot activity on one hemisphere while there is evident sunspot activity on the other hemisphere.
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 1 3 5 7 91113151719212325272931333537394143454749515355575961636567697173757779818385878991939597 -100 Tim (bits) e

Number of Sunspots

Figure 7. Low sunspot activity during sunspot polarity reversal

3.1.3. Polar Flip of the Sun We also model the delay in the polar reversal of the poles of the Sun. Due to the well-known fact that the poles of the sun flip at the peak of the sunspot cycle, we observe the peaks of the sunspot intensity of the North and South hemisphere presented in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 respectively. We used an equatorial speed of 25.75 days and North and South polar speeds of 37.17641 and 37.40711 days respectively.
350 Num of Sunspots ber 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 Tim (bits) e

a)
30 5 Num ber of S unspots 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 5 0 0 1 6 1 1 16 2 1 2 6 31 36 41 4 6 51 56 6 1 6 6 71 76 8 1 8 6 91 96 T e(b im its)

b) Figure 8. Pole reversal moment of a) North magnetic field and b) South magnetic field The marked interception between the arrows pinpoints the peak of the sunspot cycle and therefore the change of polarity of the appropriate hemisphere. To calculate the difference in the moments of polarity change for the both hemispheres, we use Eq. (4):

D ifferen e c

=B itsN

B L itN

B itsS

B L itS

(4).

BitsN stands for number of bits for the North hemisphere and BitNL for the length of one bit expressed in days for the North hemisphere. The same applies for BitsS and BitSL, except they are values measured for the South hemisphere. So, in our experiment, the value of BitNL is 83.778 days and BitSL is 82.63. Moreover, according to Fig. 8, the value of BitsN is 24.5 and of BitS is 25.5. If we apply the obtained values to Eq. (4) we calculate a difference of 54.494 days. Therefore, the polar reversal of South hemisphere will happen 54.494 days after the polar reversal of the North hemisphere. The polar reversal of the Sun will be completed after both poles are reversed. Differences in Flips We note that we found large differences in polar flip lengths if the equator rate changes. These can go from several months to a year or longer. To be investigated. The Dynamic Approach

In the previously explained static theory we use fixed values for the polar speeds and observer's orbits. However, in reality this is not the case because both change. This is for another document.
Appendix:

Calculation Observers Loop see The Internal Rotation of the Sun (ref 3) Circumference Sun: 4,373,000 km Circumference Polar field After studying the possibilities we came to the conclusion that the polar fields can have a maximum and minimum circumference from 300,000 to 1,300,000 km. The mean loop for the polar fields has to be found by further calculations. At the moment we took 2,586,5000 km for the mean value for the northern field. This gives us an observers loop of 29.936 km/sec or plus minus 360 days. Theoretical calculations place the mean for the northern field between 350 and 370 days and 365 to 385 days for the southern. However, as the calculations show, the difference in the final result is small between an observers loop of 355 or 375 days. 4,373,000 + 300,000 Mean value: 4,673,000 : 2 = 2,336,500 km 2,336,500 : 86,400 = 27.043 km/sec 4,373,000 + 1,300,000 Mean value: 5,673,000 : 2 = 2,836,500 km 2,836,500 : 86,400 = 32.83 km/sec Formula a = radius a = GM/ v2 v = speed G = 6.67428 x 10 ((power -11) m kg Mass Sun = 1.9891 x 10 power (30) kg GM = 13,275,810

Long loop a = 13,275,810/ 27.043 x 27.043 = 181,533,356 km

Circumference = 181,533,356 x 2 x 3.141592 = 1,140,608,807 km Days needed for loop= 1,140,608,807 : 2,336,500 = 488.17 days

Short loop

a = 13,275,810/107.78 = 1,231,751 km Circumference = 1,231,751 x 2 x 3.141592 = 773,931,842 km Days needed for loop= 773,931,842 : 2,836,500 = 272.85 days

References:

1. Mursula, K and Ulich, T., A new method to determine the solar cycle length. Geophys. Res. Lett, 1998,
25, 1837-1840

2. Valentine I. Makarov, Andrey G. Tlatov, Dirk K. Callebaut, Long term variationsof the torsional
oscillations of the sun. Solar Physics, 170:373-388, 1997

3. Michael J. Thompson, Jrgen Christensen-Dalsgaard, Mark S. Miesch, Juri Toomre The Internal
Rotation of the Sun Astrophys. 2003. 41:599643

4. A. K. Tripathi, Aka Tripathi and S. C. Dubey, S. K. Pandey1, Rahul Shrivastava, L. K.

Borkar, Study of sunspots and sunspot cycles 124
SCIENCE, VOL. 98, NO. 11, 10 JUNE 2010 .