33

TIMING OF THE LAST MEDITERRAI\EAN SEA_, BLACK SEA CO{I\ECTION FROM ISOSTATIC MODELS-ANDREGIONAL SEA-LEVEL ATA

Kurt Lambeck,r l)orit Sivan,2 AnthonyPurcelll and

I ReseurchSchool o/'Eurrh Scienc'es, Atrtrtlitttt Nttiontl Llnivcr.titt,.Clunhcrnt. /L'T ()200 Australict Detartmentof Muritinre Cit,ilixttiott.s undhe Ree'uttttli Inslitttle./itt' lt4ut'itinte Slttdie.s (RIMS), Univer.sit.t, ol'lluilh. Huilh 31905Isrut'l 2

Abstract:

watcr lcvelsin thc Mcditerranean ulack Scassincethc Lastcilacial and Maxinttlnt ltavc varicd substantially across lcgionlrccausc. inlucncc thc ol'tlrc of thenrelting thelastgreaticc sheets rcdistributing andwaterovcr of in icc thcEarth's sut'face. slatial This variability sigrrifcant clisctrssions is fbr of thc tinringof waterexchange between Aegcan BlackSea. the ancl rvhich rcacher{ c ' u . - 1 0 l r e l a t i vte p r e s e n t s e a l e v cl l2 kt y c a l t l P . n t h c a t r s c n c c o f d i r c c t n o a l observational evidence, sea-level change sill locations prcclictecl at is here usingisostatic models that havcbeencaliblated agairrst obscrvational data frontothcrMcditcnanean localitics. oueassurncsdcrth - 32 m forthe If a of Bosphorus the BlackSeais predictccl havebcclreached rising sill, to try Mediten'anean waterbetween about10.3and9.5 ky calBP.Altcr.natively, if theBosphorus gorge - - 100urdcpthis acloptcd thcsill,then bedrock at as thc frstMcditcrraltcan influx overthe shallowc-r Dardancllcs at - -80 nr is sill predicted havcoccurrecl to bctweeu ancll-'.7 calllP. l5 ky prediction, sca-lcvel glacio-hydloisostasy, lrcight,UlackSea,Marrnara sill Sea

Kevwords:

1.

INTRODUCTION

The cotrnectiou the between Black Seaand the Mecliten'anear via Sea the Seaof Mannararenrains controversial a issue. Was tlrerea catastrolhic floodingof the Black Sea when a rising Meditclrancar the Sca breachecl Bosphorus as Ryan et al. (1997,2003), sill (1998),Major Ryan and Pitnran

797
V. Tanko-Homltachet al. (eds.). Tlte Bluck Seu l'ltnl @2007 Springer. Qttestiot, 797-tl0tl

79 8 et al. (2002),andRyan(thisvolume)haveproposed, wastheconnection or one of gradual waterexchange described Aksu et al. (2002),HiscottandAksu as by (2002),and Hiscott et al. (this volume)?And when did this eventoccur?Some researchers place the first post-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) incursion of Mediterranean waterinto the Black Seaas early as 12,800 (oneof the two BP presented Major et a\.2002),whileothers scenarios by dateit later.It took place about I1,000-10,500 according Aksu et at. (2002) andHiscott BP to andAksu (2002),but it was laterstill at 9100BP according Kaminskiet al. (2002).^ ro date of 8400 BP has beenproposed Ryan et at. (2003) and in the second in scenario Major et al. (2002),andit wasplaced recently 7100Bp in Ryan of as as et al. (1997). If sea-level change known or canbe predicted, the depths the is and of topographic barriersseparating AegeanandBlack Seas alsoknown,then the are it becomespossible to predict the timing of the frst contacts betweenthe Aegean, Marmara, and Black Seas. The principalsources uncertainty of would ( I ) the accuracy the local sea-level be of curve,and (2) whethertherehasbeen significant modification ofthe sillsby erosion, sedimentation, localtectonics. or This paperenrploysa predictive approach estimating tinringof to the inter-basin connection based uponisostatic models sea-levelchange have of that beencalibrated against regionalMediterranean sea-level data.Previous studies haveusedthe Barbados sea-level curveof Fairbanks (19s9)-e.g.,Aksu el /. (2002)-or earlier models by Milliman and Emery (1968)-e.g.,Ryan et al. (1997)-orChappell (1986)-e.g., and Shackleton Aksu et al. (2002)-toesrimare the timing of the post-LGM flooding of the Black Seaby the Mediteranean without first testingwhethertheselocal sea-level functionsare appropriate for the Black Seasill location.In fact,asdernonstrated Lambeck(1995, 1996), by sealevelsfrom the Aegeanto the Black Seavary substantially because the of combined effects glacio-andhydroisostasy, in the absence tectonics. of even of Furthermore,the results can be expectedto differ from observedvalues at Barbados similar sites because or Mediterranean Black Sea levelswere and stronglyinfluenced the nearness the formerEuropean sheetandby the by of ice geometry the oceanbasins coastline of into which theglacialmeltwater drained (Larnbeck Purcell2005). and There appear to be no sea-levelobservationsfrom areas near the Bosphorus Dardanelles and sills that controlledthe exchange waterbetween of the Aegeanandthe Black Sea,so instead usea regionalmodel for the Mediwe terranean that has been comparecl sea-level to clatafi'oln tectonicallystable regions. calibrated The modelis thenused predictsea-levelchange thesills to at based the assuntptions (l ) therewas no tectonic on that contribution theseato level signalor thatthis hasbeencorrected someway, and (2) lateralvariatiorr in in theeffectiveparameters defne Earth's that the response changing to waterand ice loadson time scales 104 yearsis unimportant. of

7()9

The firstassumption becntested has against siteswhcretherosition oF the lastinterglacial shoreline known. is The seconcl assurnption nrrst renrain an articleof faith until full three-dimensional mantleresponse rrodelshavebeen developed and testedagainst observatiorral data.Until this is aclrievect. the followingpredictions nltstbe based a rangeof eff'ective on paraearthnrodel lneters thatyield predictions consistent field datathat lravebeen with obtainecl across region. the The datausedincludeinfornration from Israel(Sivanet c/. 2001,2004),from locations Greece in wherevertical tectonic displacements are believedto be small (van Andel and Shackleton 1982:Lanrbeck1996),fronr Italy (Lambeck a\.2004),andfrom the French er (Larnbeck Mediterranean and Bard2000).These dataspanthecriticalperiodduringwhichthe sillsguarding theBlackSeawerelikely to havebeen breached a post-LGMMecliterranean by transgressiorr.

2.

PREDICTION OF MEDITERRANEAN SEA LEVEL

prcdicts The nrodel sea-level clrange to tlrcgrowtlr clue arrcl <Jccay tlre of ice sheets the lastglacialcycle,i.e.,frolrrthe lastilrterglacial thepresent. of to It incorporates planet's the def'ormation well asthevariations gravitational as in feld carsed slriftingice and waterloadsancltheir reclistribution the by over Eartlt's surface. Meltwater returns theoceans, as it does. configurato and tlre tion of theoceat basins theshape theirnrargins and of becore tirnedepenclent. butthroughout process, ocean the the surface renrains equipotential. loatls Ice are constrained examining response thecrust by the (mainly of refected sea-level by in change) the formerlyglaciated areas, while the tinrehistoryof the totalice volulneis inferredfront sea-level datafar f'omthe glaciatecl regions. The most recent discussiolt thetheory of used here in Lanrbeck Johnston1998) ( is and and Lanrbeck ctl. (2003).The theory is consistent et with that of f'or exarrrple, Mitrovica andMilne (2003). Modelparameters theMecliterranean for irr appear (nd),andthe ice-volume and Lalnbeck Purcell equivalerrt levelusedis that sea (2001 and of Lanrbeck Chappell ). FigureI illusttates predicted level(relative toc{zry's the sea to values) in theMediterratlean BlackSeafor ca. 12,000 It clearlyshows spatial and BP. the va riabil i t yn s c a - l c vcl i rcsro n sc a tcrrr c c x r cclcd:r cl' r lss r cgior rThc th b . thc do lt rin a n ti g hf r e q u cn cy a ti a l si g n ia lcl u e thcchangcs sca- flour h sp s to in loatling by n re ltw a t c r a d d cdl tce eo tseo f'p o st-L ( iM si th t clcglaciation. is sccn r r il' his nrarily a subsidence as withinthebasins, suchastheUlackSeaandtheWestern Mediterranean, a relative and uplift of adjacent lalrcl boclies. Sulerirnposed on this is a lortger wavelength variatior, mainlywith a norlh-south trencl. is that

800 the planet'ssea-level response changes ice loadovernorthern to in Europeand North America, detailsof which may be found in Lambeckand purcell (nd). Thus, the Black Sea will have a differentsea-level response than, say, the Levantinecoast,which lies fartherfrom the former ice loads.

Figure /. Predicted level across sea the Mediterranean 12,000 at calBP.Prcdictions ssume tectonic stability thecrustbut include of glacio-hydro-isostatic effects based realistic and on ice earthmodelsthat havebeencalibrated againstobservational datafrom across region(from the Lambeck Purcell and 2005).

This spatialvariabilityis furtherillustrated Figure2 as a time series in at the four Meditemanean sitesdiscussed below. In this case,predictions for Villefranche(on the French Mediterranean coast)and Tirins (Peloponnese, Greece) very similar,but they differ from the Levantine are coastresultby -10 yearsBP. As a consequence, shouldnot usea sea-level m at 10,000 one curve fronr any other location in the Mediterranean a proxy for changein the as Bosphorus withoutfirstcorrecting differential for isostatic effects. Likewise, one cannot theBarbados use sea-level functionunless canbederlonstrated the it that isostatic effects fortuitously sanre these are the for sitesastheyarefor the Black Seas ills. In thispaper, calibrate isostatic we the rebound modelat locations the in Mediterranean whereverticaltectonicdisplacements smallor known (from are thc MIS 5.5shorclillc clcvatiort), cstinlatc wc cl'l'cctivc carthatrdicc shect paralneters describe observed that the response, thenwe interpolate looations and to of particular interest, thiscase connection in the between Mediterranean the and the Black Sea.FigureI showsone resultof suchan interpolation the Medifor terranean Black Seabasins a whole. and as

80r
In the ltextsection, predictions basecl the Larntrcck Purcell are on allcl (2005)nrodel,and accuracy estirnates clepend uporuncertainties both the in earth-and ice-nrodel paralneters, well as the accuracy the global ice as of volullres thepost-LGMperiod, discussed for as therein. The nrodel predictions have been successfully tested against observations f'onr outsi{e the Mediterrarrean, inclucl-ing Barbados (seeLanrbeck a1.2002\. the data </

E 4 0 ()
"o

t
E' l)

-60

t5

l0

time (x1000) caltsP

Figr<' 2. Predictccl sca levels at four Mediten'ancan locationsbascdorr thc modcl in Fipurc l.

3.

CALIBRATIOI{ OF THB SEA-LEVEL MODEL

Figure3 illustrates predicted levelsat sevcral sea localitics aclcorlrpares thelttto observed values the samelocations. for l--igure describes 3A the Carnrel coast Israel. of Here, underwater coastal ancl archaeological rcscarch tlas -9500 caltlP to the providedconstraints the local sea-level on curve lioln present. offshore The evidence includes subrncrgcd prchistoric scttlcntelts, watcr wells,andshipwrecks whose ages canbe established rrctclating (e.g., by Galili an dWe i n s t e i n - E v r o n 8 5Ga l i l ie ta l . 1 9 8 8GaliliandNir 1993) .The 19 ; ; onshor e cvidcllcc iltcltclcs rct'tlltttts of'anchuragcs, slirways, cuarricd porrds, riscirras, , a n <w a t e r e l l s( e . g . R a b a n 9 8 1 ,1 9 8 3 R a b a n n c G a l i l i l t ) t l 5 ; a l i l ia n d l w 1 ; a l G 1 ; Sh a rv it 9 9 9S i v a n n dGa l i l i 1 9 9 9 ), u tw e h ave a b usccl r ly osc or tlr inclicator s at tlr can be related sealeveland whoseage detenlinations believecl be to are to reliable. Generally, predictions consistent the are with the otrservational data. -9 kv Bp. although latterare lilnitedto tirres the after

802

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IJ

.lll

3
q I

I .xr
5

- i - ti i

-tft

-rt

.\l

# #
I

FFr

nP*

? .fir., - *'i;
a tls.tft

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t ritiffrl

ersill Pl l n
Nor hern Tu c0nJ
2 ycars) 15 lr) _f

R 6 J tirne (r l(X calibrattd

ycirrs tirne(x l(XX) calibratcrl

Figure 3. Comparison predictedand observedrelative sea levels at four Mediterranean of localities. (thegreyzone)arebased unceftainties Upperandlowerlinritsfor predicted values on in themodelparameters; details, Lambeck Purcell for see (2005). and Observational accuracies or upperandlowerlimitsareshownwhereappropriate. sources discussed thetext. Data are in

Figure 38 compares severalsites in the Greek Peloponnese, where tectonic is stability suggested theoccurrene theLastInterglacial levels by of sea at a few nteters abovepresent level(Kelletatet al. 1976;vanAndel l9S7). sea Data frorn severalsites. have been combinedhere: from the headsof the Argoliks, Messiniaks, Lakoniks attd Gull's, f'orrr Navrirou (Kraftel /. lay 1975,1977,1980), a LGM sea-level and estirnate fiorntlreArgoliks (vanAndel andLianos1984). Some spatial variability predicted, between these sitesis but thisis lessthantheobservational accuracy. results The havebeencombined here into a singlesea-level curve.Predicted valuesarefor the meanof the sites, and the associated accuracy includesthe contributionfrom the expectedspatial

803
variability, Much of theevidence againof a linlitirrg is nature; upper limitsare provided terrestrial by trtaterial lowerlillitsareprovidecl nrarine and by nlaterial.Agreelrlent tltepredicted levels of sea with thisevidencc again is satisfactory, altlrough datapointsbefore- 7 ky Bp are few. the A nrore detailed Holocene record with data extencling Lrack 10,000 years is available ft'onr VersiliaPlairr northern the of (Arrtorrioli ut.2000). Tuscarry ct The contilrental se<lillrents generally above,and the marinenraterials lie lie below,predicted values (Figure 3C).Datafronrotherltalianlocalities are that eithertectonically stable, wheretectonic or corrections lre lnade, also crn are consistent with the modelbackto aboutI 1,000 (e.g.,fr.onr Bp Capepalinura, Calabria, theNorthAdriatic; and Lanrbeck st.2004). et The fourthlocalityis on the FrenchMediterratlean coastwheresea-level indicat<lrs variablc of quality extendback to the LGM (Larnbeck and Bard 2000).F'orconvenience, and because observational the accuracies generallylargerthan the predictecl are spatial variabilityfor the observation sites. field datahaveherebeenprothe jected ontoa single sea-levelcurve, whichis compared thepredictecl with values in Figure 3D. Flerealso, the agreenrent satisfactory, is and frorn this brief comparison, well as front cornparisons as with other localities beyondtlre (Laltrbeck u|.2002),we conclucle tlremodelpredictions Mediterraltean cr that providca satisfactory intcrpolation clcvicc calculatiltg l'or sca-levcl change in unsurveyed areas, this casefor theAegean-Marnrara-Black connection. in Sea

4.

PREDICTBD SEA LEVEL AT THE MARMARA AND BT,ACK SEA SILLS

Two sill locationsare considered, one at the southemend of the (Figure4A) and the otherwithin the Dardanelles Bosphorus rrearCapeNara Bururt(Figure4B). In addition, sea-level profiles havebeenpredicted alog a sectiott from tlte Aegean theBlack Seathatrunsthroughthe Dardanelles. to the Seaof Manttara, (Figure arrdthe Bosphorus 4C). One inlnecliate observation is thatthepredicted levels thetwo sill locations substantially ferent: sea for are dif -5 m at 10,000 and>9 nt after14,000 Also rotable thattheBlackSea BP BP. is prediction well belowthatfor the localities lies illustratecl Figure3 ancl in that observatiors noneof these frotu sites wouldfonrra goocl proxyflrsealevelin the upperBosplrorus. Wc thcrcl)rc thcrlroclcllrcclictiorrs, usc calibratcclagairrst obscrvccltlrL f ro n tt hc o t l t c rl o c a l i t i cs, csti n ra te c ti rn es whicll thc sillswoulcl to th at likcly - -32 Itavebeenbreached. exantple, thepresent For if Bosphorus depth sill of rn(Majoret al.2002)is used, thentheMeditenarlean waterin theManlrara basin would ltave reached this elevation betweelt about 10.300ancl9500 calBP.

804

-20

G' o
{, 's {o | o . 'Bo I -too
-120
6 o

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t 5 1 0 5 llme (r 1000) crllbratedyearc
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Aegean

{
T-|ry BP

Marmra Sea

)
t I

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-20

T-EkyBP

-r-;rilr.ln-r-

ct
(l)

-80

-100

-120 t400

200 100 300 Distance from the Black Sea sill (km)

Figure 4. Predicted levelsat two sill locations sea between Aegeanand Black Seas; thc present sill depths predicted and timesoftransgression indicated. Thc BlackScasill at thcsotthern are A. endof theBosphorus. two possible depths present (its with sill depth - -32ntandbcdrock at depth - -100 m). B. The Dardanelles nearCapeNaraBurun at a depthof - -80 m. C. Variation at sill in predicted level for selected sea intervals alongan Aegeanto Black Seatransect. Variation within theDardanelles generally is small,andtheprecise location thissill is not important. of

thc srread reflecting tncetainty thc nroclcl thc in prcdictions. This conlpares witlr the limitsof 9400 calBPand 8000calBPproposed Major et al. (2002) by and Ryan et al. (2003),respectively. Alternatively,if the - -100 m bedrock depth is adoptedas the top of the ancientbarrier,then the first post-LGM Mediterranean inflow is predicted haveoccurred to betweenI 5,700and 14,600 calBP,with theprovisothattherewasno higherbarrierin theDardanelles that at time. If the Dardanellessill was at -80+5 m (Major et al. 2002), then this

805 elevatiott would have beenbreached between15,000 ancl 13,700 calBp,the unbeftainty reflectingboth the rnodel'slimitationsand the unceftainty the in reported depth.This compares sill with the datingof 15,000 12,g00 ro calBp proposed Major et al. (2002).Notethat at theseearly tirnes. by circulation betweenthe northernAegealtand the restof the Mediterranean rnuchnrore was restricted thanit is today(Lanrbeck 1996).

4.

CONCLUSION

ln the absence directobservational of evidence relative fur sea-level change withintheAegean-Black corriclor, Sea glacio-hydro-isostatic nroclels are usedhereas interpolation devices predictchanges sill locations to at that are understood have conttolledthe exchange water betweenthe Aegean. to of Manttara, Black Seas. and The absolute accuracy the rroclel of preclictions-rests on the ability to separate parameters describe Earh'sresponse the that the to loadingandthosethat definethe surface loads.When the rnodelis usedfor ice interpolation purposes only, full dccoupling ol'thc paranrctcrs ot critical, is provided thelnoclel that paralleters calibrated are against regional sea-lcvel data. For thecxalttples tsed herc, agreerrrentsatisfrctory withinthcrccur.acics is and of boththe observational evidence thenroclel ancl prcclicticlns. Based these oll results, in theabsence localtectonic and of n'ovenrents, we estilltate that,assuming the Bosphorus elevation remainecl that sill has uchanged -32 m, tlteMeditenanean atreached heightfor thef,rrst this tinresince the LGM at between 10,300 9500calBP, and andthe Darclanelles at - -82 sill, rn, wasreached between 15,000 and 13,700 calBp.Beinghigher thanthe lowlevelbedrock Black Seasill, thisalsoestablishes alternative the timingfor the Black Seafloodingby the Mediterranean. Accuracy theobservationalevidence of is generally high,however, not andirnproved restlts desirable are fronrtlrercgionif thcsc tinrcs <lf'tr.arrsgrcssio are to be refined. Obtaining inrproved estimates will recuire aclditiolral highaccllracy infornratioll localsea-level oll change theregion. tllisre_qarcl, in Ill data fronl the Black Seacoastitself ntay be useful,particr.rlarly away from tectonicallyactivezones, because thevariation of predictecl occurhcre(Figurel). to

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