Climate Change, Forests, & Fire

What Might We Expect?

Carl N. Skinner Project Leader USFS Pacific Southwest Research Station Redding, CA

PSW

Climate Change? Statistical Proof?

There is only one earth!

Climate Change? Statistical Proof?

Control .5 x CO2 2 x CO2 4 x CO2

Study the Past Monitor the Present Model the Future

Piecing Together a Picture of Climate History

Ice Cores
Gas, Isotopes, Dust

Sediment Cores
Pollen, Charcoal, Fossils

Pack-rat Middens Tree-rings

Ring width, Ring density, Isotopes, Fire scars

Instrumental Record

Climate is always changing.

Just sometimes faster than at other times.

380

1960-1990

Ice core data

Global Temperature Trends

Black = Instrumental Record 1861-1990 Others = Reconstructed from tree rings

From: Jones et al. 2001 Science 292: 662-667

8 warmest yrs on record are since 1998

Global Temperatures

Climate Change Temperatures

Warming Warming Night vs. Day Night vs. Day Winter vs. Summer Winter vs. Summer Elevation Elevation Latitude Poles vs. Equator Latitude Poles vs. Equator

Water
Snow melt Earlier / more rapid Stream flow Dominated more by rain rather than snow More rapid rain related peaks Less summer flows

Climate Change & Fire

What might we expect?

The most potent factor in shaping the forest of the region has been, and still is, fire. The general character of the forest, ... in fact almost every phase of its condition has been determined by ... fire.
J. B. Leiberg 1902
Forest conditions in the northern Sierra Nevada, California. Professional Paper 8, Series H, Forestry, 5. US Geological Survey, GPO, Washington, D.C.

Havent Fire Regimes and Forests had to adjust to a warming climate before? Never when accompanied by nearly a century of fire suppression!

Where are we headed?

Fire season getting longer. Fuels keep growing. Greater probability of intense fires.

en yg Ox

He at

Fire Triangle Fuel

Annual Area Burned Western States

Millions of Hectares Millions of Hectares

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

7.5 * 5* 2.5 * *Millions

of Acres

1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

From: Arno & Allison-Bunnell 2002 (1915 to 2000) & From: Arno & Allison-Bunnell 2002 (1915 to 2000) & National Interagency Fire Center http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fire_stats.htm National Interagency Fire Center http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fire_stats.htm

Mediterranean Climate
Cool/wet Winters vegetation/fuel Warm/dry Summer annual fire season Lightning

Fire Climate - Precipitation Patterns

YELLOWSTONE LAKE, WY

REDDING, CA 20

2.5

2.0

15

1.5

1.0

10

0.5

5
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NORTH PLATTE, NE
FLAGSTAFF, AZ 14

20 18 16

12

14
10

12 10

8
6

6 4 2

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Red dots = Lightning Caused Fires Blue dots = Human Caused Fires

33 Fire Scars

Taylor & Skinner 2003

California ~ 4.5 to 12 million acres/yr

Stephens et al. 2007 FEM

Of the hundreds of persons who visit the Pacific slope in California every summer to see the mountains, few see more then the immediate foreground and a haze of smoke which even the strongest glass is unable to penetrate.
C. Hart Merriam 1898 Visit to Siskiyou County
Chief, Division of Biological Survey
From: Morford 1984

Stand Structure & Species Composition

Changes over 20th Century

Fire exclusion has helped lead to increasing stand density.

Original Stand Structure

Forest Restoration?
What Time Period? What is your goal? Structure Process/Function Resilience

Tree-ring Based Fire Histories

Mostly cover the period of ~1600 to 1900 Much colder than 20th Century.

From: Jones et al. 2001 Science 292: 662-667

Tree-ring Evidence of Fire/Climate Relationships

Skinner, Taylor, Carleton, Stephens

Since 1600, tree-ring evidence suggests that average temperatures were associated with fire activity the higher the temperature, the more widespread were the fires across the study regions.

Regions adapted from Trouet, Taylor, Carleton, & Skinner 2006 GRL

Resilience
the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks
Folke, C. and others 2004. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35: 557-581.

Resilience
Forested systems characterized by fire regimes of frequent, mostly low-moderate intensity fires, dominated by large, long-lived trees, are considered resilient if the forested landscape exhibits a generally forested condition, including larger trees, shortly following an event such as fire.

Priorities for Fuels Assessments

Surface Fuels Ladder Fuels Crown Fuels Large Fire Resistant Trees

Stand Scale

Agee & Skinner 2005 Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments. Forest Ecology & Management 211: 83-96

1992

1982 1994

Climate Change, Fire, & Carbon

Zhang, Powers, Skinner The following slides are based on preliminary, unpublished data. It is subject to further revision before publication.

Components of C in forest ecosystems above ground

Live trees Dead trees

Understory

Down wood

Carbon in forest floor and below ground.

Forest Floor Forest Floor

Coarse Roots Coarse Roots

Mineral Soil Mineral Soil

Lateral Roots Lateral Roots

The Whitmore Garden of Eden Study

W.M Beaty & Associates

HF F FI HFI Ctrl HI HF F H H I Ctrl F H

HF

HFI Ctrl Ctrl

HF F H

Destructive sampling at 21 years

F

Whole Stand Carbon at Age 21

Forest floor Understory Live tree

120 Carbon (Mg/ha) 100 80 60 40 20 0 C F H HF

Message #1:

Managed stands store more live tree carbon than unmanaged stands

What about climate change?

Precipitation decrease Temperature increase Both

Climate Change Effects on Aboveground Biomass at age 21

0 -4 -8 -12 -16
-25% ppt
(43.4)

(89.7)

(125.2)

(148.7)

HF

Change (%)

Climate Change Effects on Aboveground Biomass at age 21

0 -4 -8 -12 -16
-25% ppt +2C
(43.4)

(89.7)

(125.2)

(148.7)

HF

Change (%)

Climate Change Effects on Aboveground Biomass at age 21

0 Change (%) -4 -8 -12 -16
-25% ppt +2C -25%ppt +2C
(43.4)

(89.7)

(125.2)

(148.7)

HF

Message #2:

Unmanaged stands are more sensitive to global warming in terms of live tree carbon

Forest floor

Understory

Live tree

120 Carbon (Mg/ha) 100 80 60 40 20 0 C F

Carbon (Mg/ha)

What about Whole Stand Carbon after Fire?

H
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 C F H HF

HF

Understory

Live tree

26

4 4

Message #3:

Managed stands are more resilient to wildfire in terms of total stand carbon

Conclusions
Managed stands will sequester more carbon in the trees regardless of stand ages. Tree carbon is much more stable in response to fire and climate change than other aboveground ecosystem components Managing forests appears to be a particularly important tool to mitigate climate change

Where are we headed?

Fire season getting longer. Fuels keep growing. Greater probability of intense fires.
W

at

er th ea

Fire Triangle Vegetation

Cl im

Fire: A Catalyst For Change?

From M. Ritchie & T. Hamilton

Thank You!
12 inches