Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Indian Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
2QFY12 1,135 921 469 % chg (qoq) 3.1 (1.0) 12.2 3QFY11 1,038 812 491 % chg (yoy) 12.8 12.3 7.0
`241
-
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, Indian Bank reported net profit growth of 7.0% yoy (up 12.2% qoq) to `526cr, above our estimate, primarily due to reversal of `52cr of tax liability during the quarter. We recommend Neutral on the stock. NIM declines sequentially; NPA levels rise qoq: Advances for the bank grew by 1.8% qoq (18.2% yoy) and deposits grew by 2.4% qoq (17.8% yoy). CASA deposits growth was relatively healthy at 3.8% qoq (11.1% yoy), leading to a 41bp sequential rise in CASA ratio to 30.2%. CASA deposit growth was mainly on account of healthy traction in saving account deposits, which grew by 6.1% qoq. The banks yield on advances declined by 41bp qoq to 11.7%, while cost of deposits increased by 26bp qoq to 6.9%, leading to an 18bp qoq fall in reported NIM to 3.6%. The bank witnessed a sequential decline of 16.5% in fee income during 3QFY2012 to `235cr. Treasury income also declined by 12.5% qoq to `18cr, while recoveries were also low for 3QFY2012, declining by 29.9% qoq to `28cr. NPA levels of the bank rose sequentially, with absolute gross NPAs increasing by 13.6% qoq and net NPA increasing by 16.7% qoq. Provision coverage ratio of the bank declined by 285bp qoq to 76.5% compared to 79.4% in 2QFY2012 and 84.1% in 1QFY2012. Slippage levels, which had risen sharply in 2QFY2012 to `380cr on account of switchover to system-based NPA recognition and due to a few chunky accounts slipping into NPA, declined to `293cr (slippage ratio of 1.6%). As of 3QFY2012, the banks restructured book stood at `5,573cr. The bank restructured accounts worth `421cr during 3QFY2012, of which ~`300cr was on account of restructuring of GTL (also led to NPV hit of `36cr in the P&L). Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.0x compared to its five-year range of 0.8x-1.3x. The current valuations of 1.0x are relatively high compared to peers, which are trading at 0.6-0.8x FY2013E ABV. As these relatively high valuations are primarily attributable to the banks high NIM, which may not sustain in the medium term, we believe the risk-return trade-off in case of Indian Bank is less favorable. Hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 4.9 9.1 5.9
3m 2.7 13.0
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 3,161 21.2 1,555 24.9 3.5 35.1 6.9 1.6 1.7 25.6
FY2011 4,036 27.7 1,714 10.2 3.7 38.8 6.2 1.3 1.5 23.5
FY2012E 4,547 12.7 1,903 11.0 3.5 43.4 5.5 1.1 1.4 22.0
FY2013E 5,058 11.2 1,828 (4.0) 3.4 41.7 5.8 1.0 1.2 18.2
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 3,224 2,494 725 5 2,054 1,170 281 263 235 18 28 1,451 540 372 168 912 236 117 53 66 675 150 526 22.1 3,035 2,356 675 3 1,899 1,135 342 321 281 21 40 1,478 557 367 190 921 220 102 96 22 701 232 469 33.1 6.2 5.9 7.4 32.1 NA 8.1 3.1 (17.8) (18.2) (16.5) (12.5) (29.9) (1.8) (3.1) 1.5 (11.8) (1.0) 7.2 15.0 (45.2) 196.4 (3.6) (35.5) 12.2 (1096)bp 2,392 1,803 582 6 1,354 1,038 249 222 155 27 23 1,286 474 333 142 812 54 28 21 5 758 267 491 35.2 34.8 38.3 24.5 (30.4) NA 51.7 12.8 13.1 18.6 51.5 (31.9) 21.9 12.8 13.7 11.8 18.3 12.3 340.9 318.8 150.7 1,354.1 (10.9) (44.0) 7.0 (1308)bp
3QFY12 87,337 73.4 6,430 29,489 35,919 30.2 11.8 9.6 6.9 11.7 7.6 3.6 37.2 1,190 1.4 695 0.8 76.5 1.6 0.3
2QFY12 %chg (qoq) 3QFY11 85,765 73.8 6,813 27,804 34,617 29.8 12.2 9.9 6.6 12.1 7.6 3.8 37.7 1,048 1.2 596 0.7 79.4 2.0 0.3 1.8 (39)bp (5.6) 6.1 3.8 41bp (39)bp (34)bp 26bp (41)bp 7bp (18)bp (49)bp 13.6 14bp 16.7 11bp (285)bp (46)bp 3bp 73,919 73.2 6,358 25,972 32,330 32.0 12.4 9.7 5.4 10.4 7.2 3.8 36.9 752 1.0 417 0.6 83.0 1.6 0.1
%chg (yoy) 18.2 17.8 23bp 1.1 13.5 11.1 (181)bp (51)bp (14)bp 150bp 131bp 41bp (26)bp 30bp 58.3 33bp 66.7 23bp (651)bp (4)bp 25bp
118,970 116,218
2.4 101,015
32.0
30.8
31.0
29.8
6.5 3.1
1.8 4.7
9.6 4.4
3.9 5.2
1.8 2.4
2.0
68.0
30.2
29.0
3.84
3.86
3.76 3.58
1,822
1,863
1,895
1,927
1,935
1.0 0.6
1.0 0.5
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.7
1.4 0.8
1.6
1.9
0.9
2.0
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
36.9
190
34.7
38.9
37.7
37.2
142
139
168
333
309
359
367
372
150 -
170
10.0 -
36.9
34.7
38.9
37.7
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Investment arguments
Indian Bank's performance has broadly been positive and balanced since its listing in 2007, leading to a gradual improvement in the quality of earnings, visible amongst other things in the substantial 80bp decline in the bank's operating costs as a percentage of assets. Additionally, the bank's CMD has a five-year tenure, which provides a reasonable strategic stability to the bank.
3QFY12
37.2
1.6
0.5
Investment concerns
Relatively high yields
A larger portion of SME and mid-corporate loans has contributed to the banks relatively high yield on advances, while asset quality has held up reasonably so far, resulting in the bank enjoying one of the highest risk-adjusted yields in its peer group (90bp higher than sector average in FY2011). This has supported its NIM, which in FY2011 was higher than even larger banks having 40% CASA deposits vs. Indian Banks 30%. Past experience shows that banks that delivered high NIM on the back of high yields later paid the price for the higher risk taken in the form higher NPAs in subsequent years. Accordingly, going ahead, as in case of other banks with unsustainably high yields, we are cautious on the banks asset quality and NIM outlook.
Earlier estimates FY2012E 17.0 15.0 30.5 3.5 3.6 12.0 14.0 1.9 78.0 FY2013E 14.0 14.0 30.4 3.4 2.4 13.0 15.0 2.2 75.0
Revised estimates FY2012E 17.0 15.0 30.5 3.5 3.6 12.0 14.0 1.8 77.0 FY2013E 14.0 14.0 30.4 3.4 2.4 13.0 15.0 2.1 75.0
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Sep-11
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre-Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT avl. To equity sh. - YoY Growth (%) FY07 1,872 24.0 823 54.9 2,695 32.0 1,247 15.5 1,448 50.6 564 40.6 884 57.7 124 14.1 760 50.6 36 723 43.4 FY08 1,992 6.4 1,068 29.7 3,060 13.5 1,400 12.3 1,659 14.6 424 (24.8) 1,235 39.7 226 18.3 1,009 32.8 40 969 33.9 FY09 2,609 31.0 1,035 (3.0) 3,644 19.1 1,415 1.1 2,229 34.3 443 4.3 1,786 44.6 541 30.3 1,245 23.5 43 1,203 24.1 FY10 3,161 21.2 1,316 27.1 4,478 22.9 1,730 22.3 2,747 23.3 396 (10.6) 2,352 31.7 797 33.9 1,555 24.9 46 1,509 25.5 FY11 4,036 27.7 1,182 (10.2) 5,218 16.5 1,926 11.3 3,292 19.8 657 66.1 2,634 12.0 920 34.9 1,714 10.2 46 1,668 10.5 FY12E 4,547 12.7 1,224 3.6 5,771 10.6 2,169 12.6 3,602 9.4 883 34.3 2,719 3.2 816 30.0 1,903 11.0 37 1,866 11.9 FY13E 5,058 11.2 1,254 2.4 6,312 9.4 2,465 13.6 3,847 6.8 1,141 29.2 2,706 (0.5) 878 32.4 1,828 (4.0) 37 1,791 (4.0)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Equity Preference Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 830 430 400 3,011 47,091 15.4 1,936 3,281 56,149 3,729 1,088 20,878 29,058 29.2 551 844 56,149 17.9 FY08 830 430 400 4,381 29.6 1,283 216 2,752 6,433 340 FY09 830 430 400 6,306 18.9 531 300 3,573 6,212 472 FY10 830 430 400 7,442 21.6 657 300 3,932 7,061 1,052 28,268 62,146 20.8 1,580 1,282 20.5 FY11 830 430 400 8,691 19.9 800 1,300 4,293 6,878 1,684 34,784 75,250 21.1 1,606 1,516 20.1 FY12E 830 430 400 10,133 15.0 2,840 1,521 5,019 7,909 2,840 39,640 17.0 1,818 1,769 16.7 FY13E 830 430 400 11,524 14.0 3,234 1,734 5,680 9,016 3,234 45,071 14.0 2,008 2,015 13.9
61,046 72,582
21,915 22,801 39,839 51,465 37.1 539 1,442 25.6 29.2 1,594 1,578 19.3
88,042 100,368
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs 1.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 81.3 16.8 3.0 14.3 3.2 1.2 3.6 1.1 2.5 0.1 2.6 1.5 4.1 2.4 1.7 0.2 1.5 18.9 27.7 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 79.9 22.5 3.0 10.7 2.3 1.2 3.1 0.7 2.5 0.4 2.9 1.3 4.2 2.2 2.0 0.4 1.6 16.2 25.8 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.0 79.6 28.0 5.0 8.6 1.9 2.1 3.4 0.6 2.8 0.3 3.1 1.1 4.1 1.8 2.3 0.7 1.6 15.3 24.7 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 93.6 35.1 6.5 6.9 1.6 2.7 3.4 0.4 3.0 0.4 3.4 1.0 4.4 1.9 2.5 0.9 1.7 15.3 25.6 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 84.3 38.8 7.5 6.2 1.3 3.1 3.6 0.6 3.0 0.1 3.2 0.9 4.1 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.5 15.3 23.5 1.9 0.9 1.8 0.4 77.0 43.4 218.0 8.5 5.5 1.1 3.5 3.4 0.7 2.8 0.1 2.9 0.8 3.7 1.6 2.1 0.6 1.4 15.2 22.0 3.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 75.0 41.7 250.4 8.0 5.8 1.0 3.3 3.3 0.8 2.6 0.0 2.6 0.8 3.4 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.2 15.1 18.2 35.4 61.7 14.1 12.3 32.3 65.3 12.9 11.4 31.6 70.9 13.3 11.3 32.2 70.4 12.7 11.1 30.9 71.1 13.6 11.0 30.5 72.4 13.6 11.1 30.4 72.4 13.6 11.2 3.7 46.3 1.5 27.7 3.2 45.8 1.6 25.8 3.5 38.8 1.6 24.7 3.5 38.6 1.7 25.6 3.7 36.9 1.5 23.5 3.5 37.6 1.4 22.0 3.4 39.1 1.2 18.2 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Slippages
Loan loss prov. /avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Indian Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11