Release Date: June 23, 2011

April 2011
Quinn W. Eddins, Director of Research

Spring Arrives Softly

Its Still All About the Inventory
The year-over-year trend in home prices remained negative in April. The 25-MSA RPX Composite price deteriorated 5.1 percent in April relative to a year prior. This decline reversed the positive year-on-year trend observed at this point last year, when government stimulus in the form of homebuyer tax credits helped to buoy buyer demand and thus housing prices. The stimulus has since abated and home prices have declined as a result. RPX prices declined year over year in all 25 metropolitan areas included in the composite. The 25-MSA RPX Composite price increased two percent month over month, which was a large gain relative to the monthover-month increase in April during the last five years. Nevertheless, the change in the RPX Composite from January to April was negative for only the third time in the last ten years, marking a significant reversal from last year (see Exhibit 5). The decline in the Composite price during January was so large that the seasonal bounce in April was not enough to bring the year-to-date change into positive territory. The changes in the RPX Composite through April are consistent with the changes in the FHFA purchase only house price index announced yesterday. The FHFA purchase index declined 5.7 percent year over year and increased 0.8 percent month over month in April. Despite the month-over-month uptick in April, our outlook for housing prices is negative as the major headwinds facing the nation's housing markets - widespread negative equity, a backlogged foreclosure pipeline and persistent oversupply - have not abated. In fact, statistics provided in the May 2011 Housing Market Fact Sheet released by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Treasury show that these problems may be getting worse. The fact sheet cites statistics from CoreLogic showing the number of underwater borrowers increased through the fourth quarter of 2010, the latest value released. And according to the National Association of Realtors, there were 3,720,000 existing homes for sale in May, which is still above the level reported in December 2008. As we have said before on a number of occasions, the problem with housing is inventory. There is simply too much supply to be absorbed by the tenuous, at best, demand. Home sales, as measured by the 25-MSA RPX Composite transaction count, declined 9.2 percent year over year through the end of April. This decline is consistent with the latest observations from the National Association of Realtors, who reported that existing home sales fell 15.3 percent year over year as of the end of May. On a month-over-month basis the 25-MSA transaction count increased significantly in April due to a seasonal increase in housing demand, but the increase in activity year-to-date was less than usual for the past three years. The 25-MSA transaction count increased 11.6 percent month over month, which is the largest percentage increase for the month of April in the last ten years (see Exhibit 5). Yet the year-to-date increase (about 24 percent) was less than it was at this time in 2010 and 2008. The increase in sales activity was accompanied by a seasonal shift in the mix of sales away from sales of foreclosed homes and toward sales of homes not in foreclosure, as described below.
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In aggregate across the 25 metropolitan areas tracked by Radar Logic, foreclosed homes sold at a 39 percent discount to non-foreclosed homes in April. The significant increase in sales of foreclosed homes over the last few years has put downward pressure on housing price indices as foreclosed homes typically sell at a significant discount to other homes. Indices that blend transaction data from foreclosed and non-foreclosed homes overstate declines and understate gains in prices of non-foreclosed homes which still account for the majority of home sales. For this reason Radar Logic tracks values and sales activity of foreclosed homes and non-foreclosed homes separately, in addition to producing metro-wide indices based on data from all sales within a given metropolitan area (see Exhibits 711). The 25-MSA RPX Motivated Composite price, which tracks prices of foreclosed homes, was 39 percent lower than the composite price for all other home as of the end of April. The discount has increased slightly from 38 percent at the end of March 2011 and 38 percent at the end of April 2010 (see Exhibit 10). Sales of foreclosed homes accounted for about 30 percent of all sales during April, down from 33 percent in March, as sales of foreclosed homes increased less quickly than sales of other homes. As the demand and supply of foreclosed homes are more consistent throughout the year than the demand and supply of other homes, foreclosure and REO sales typically increase as a percentage of total during the fall and decrease as a percentage of total during the spring. Supply and demand are more consistent in the market for foreclosed homes because sellers (lenders and servicers) and buyers (largely investors) are less sensitive to seasonal factors, such as weather and school schedules, than the owner-occupants that buy and sell homes in the non-foreclosure market. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite Indices for April 2011 will exhibit their first gains in eight months. Last month, we predicted that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for March 2011 would be about 152 and the 20-City composite would be roughly 138. In fact, the 10-City composite was 151.66 and the 20-City composite was 138.16. This month, we expect the April 2011 10-City composite index to be about 153 and the 20-City index to be roughly 140.

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Exhibit 1: 25-MSA RPX Composite Price (28-Day), 2000-2011

$320

$270

$220

$170

$120

April21

$70 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPXTM Composite price as of 4/21/2011

Exhibit 2: Year-Over-Year Change in 25-MSA RPX Price (28-Day), 2001-2011

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPXTM Composite price as of 4/21/2011

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Exhibit 3: 25-MSA RPX Transaction Count (28-Day), 2000-2011

200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-00 Jan-01
TM

April21

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPX

Composite transaction count as of 4/21/2011

Exhibit 4: Year-Over-Year Change in 25-MSA RPX Transaction Count (28-Day), 2001-2011

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPXTM Composite transaction count as of 4/21/2011

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Exhibit 5: Month-to-Month, Year-to-Date and Year-to-Year Change in the RPX Composite Price and Transaction Count vs. Past Years
Month-over-Month Change in the 25-MSA Composite Price through April 21 % Change (left axis) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 $ Change (right axis) $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 4.0% $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Month-over-Month Change in the 25-MSA Transaction Count through April 21 % Change (left axis) # Change (right axis) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

Year-to-Date Change in the 25-MSA Composite Price through April 21 % Change (left axis) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 $ Change (right axis) $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Year-to-Date Change in the 25-MSA Transaction Count through April 21 % Change (left axis) # Change (right axis) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Year-over-Year Change in the 25-MSA Composite Price through April 21 % Change (left axis) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% '02 '03 '04 '05
TM

Year-over-Year Change in the 25-MSA Transaction Count through April 21 % Change (left axis) 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% $15.00 $30.00 $45.00 $60.00 $75.00 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 # Change (right axis) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

$ Change (right axis) $60.00 $45.00 $30.00 $15.00 $0.00

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPX

Composite prices and transaction counts as of 4/21/2011

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Exhibit 6: 28-Day Regional RPX Composite Prices 1234

RPX 25-MSA Composite Price, 2009-2011 $200 $195 $190 $185 $180 $175 Oct10 Jul10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Aug10 May10 Mar10 Sep10 Apr10 Apr11 Jun10

RPX Midwest Composite Price1 $120 $115 $110 $105 $220 $100 $95 $90 $85 Oct10 Jul10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 Aug10 Sep10 May10 Jun10 Mar10 Apr10 $215 $210 $205 $235 $230 $225

RPX Northeast Composite Price2

Oct10

Jul10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11 Mar11

Aug10

May10

Mar10

RPX West Composite Price3 $235 $230 $225 $220 $215 $210 $205 $200 $195 Oct10 Jul10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Aug10 May10 Mar10 Sep10 Apr10 Apr11 Jun10 $100 $95 May10 $115 $110 $105 $125 $120

RPX South Composite Price4

Aug10

Sep10

Apr10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar10

Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPXTM values as of 4/21/2011

The RPX Midwest composite is a weighted average of RPX values for Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and St. Louis. The RPX Northeast composite is a weighted average of RPX values for Boston, New York and Philadelphia. 3 The RPX West composite is a weighted average of RPX values for Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle. 4 The RPX South composite is a weighted average of RPX values for Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa and Washington, DC.
1 2

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Sep10

Apr10

Apr11

Oct10

Jun10

Jul10

Apr11

Jun10

Exhibit 7 5
25-MSA Composite - Motivated and Other RPX Transaction Counts, 2007-20115 MotivatedTC 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 OtherTC

Exhibit 8
25-MSA Composite - Motivated Transaction Count as % of Total Transaction Count, '07-'11 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% MotivatedSales'ShareofTotalSales 25MSACompositeRPXPrice $310 $295 $280 $265 $250 $235 $220 $205 $190 $175

Exhibit 9
25-MSA Composite - Motivated, Other and MSAWide Prices, 2007-2011 $290 $270 $250 $230 $210 $190 $170 $150 $130 $110 MotivatedPrice RPXOtherPrice MSAPrice

Exhibit 10
25-MSA Composite - Motivated Sales Price Discount Relative to Other Sales, 2007-2011 55% DiscountofMotivatedPricev.OtherPrice 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 25MSACompositeRPXPrice $295 $280 $265 $250 $235 $220 $205 $190 $175 $310

Exhibit 11
Motivated Sales as a Percent of Total Sales, 25 MSAs 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4/21/2011 4/21/2010

Source: Radar Logic

5

The shaded areas depicting motivated and other transaction counts are stacked. www.radarlogic.com

Exhibit 12: Radar Logic Daily Prices in 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (Ranked by 1-Year % Change)67
April 2011 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 March 2011 Rank 1 6 7 8 5 4 3 2 21 12 24 13 11 14 10 9 18 17 22 15 16 23 19 20 25 MSA New York, NY Washington, DC Charlotte, NC San Jose, CA San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA San Diego, CA Columbus, OH Atlanta, GA Milwaukee, WI Miami, FL Denver, CO Philadelphia, PA St. Louis, MO Phoenix, AZ Chicago, IL Cleveland, OH Sacramento, CA Detroit, MI Minneapolis, MN Las Vegas, NV Tampa, FL Seattle, WA Jacksonville, FL Boston, MA6 25-MSA Composite Manhattan Condo7 PPSF $237.12 $165.10 $87.46 $333.20 $267.92 $243.47 $207.32 $84.02 $70.10 $99.63 $94.37 $118.77 $125.72 $93.19 $74.00 $111.82 $64.62 $110.57 $54.86 $102.25 $70.23 $73.51 $150.60 $77.20 $152.64 $182.55 $1,012.49 April 2011 vs. April 2010 -0.2% -2.2% -3.0% -3.1% -4.6% -5.2% -5.2% -5.9% -6.5% -6.7% -7.2% -8.0% -8.1% -8.2% -9.5% -9.6% -9.6% -10.0% -10.0% -10.7% -10.8% -10.8% -12.9% -13.1% -21.8% -5.1% -2.3% April 2010 vs. April 2009 -1.1% -0.8% 1.3% 14.9% 12.2% 6.1% 12.5% 0.7% -2.5% -8.0% -10.6% 5.6% -3.3% 1.5% 0.2% -12.6% -8.5% 1.5% -12.9% 0.5% -3.6% -8.9% -4.2% -2.6% 8.5% 2.3% -9.0% April 2011 vs. March 2011 2.2% 4.8% 5.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.5% -1.2% 1.7% 12.0% 6.3% 5.9% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.8% 3.7% 5.4% 3.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.2% 3.3% -1.2% 3.3% -0.4% 2.0% -8.6%
= positive = neutral

April 2010 vs. March 2010 -0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.1% 3.9% 4.2% 3.1% -2.5% 0.1% -0.7% 0.2% 1.2% 4.5% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2.8% 1.5% -0.1% 0.3% 3.7% 5.5% 0.9% 6.2%
= negative

Source: 28-Day RPXTM value for each MSA as of 4/21/2011

Exhibit 13: Radar Logic Daily Prices Year-Over-Year Change

30% NewYork,NY Charlotte,NC SanFrancisco,CA SanDiego,CA Atlanta,GA Miami,FL Philadelphia,PA Phoenix,AZ Cleveland,OH Detroit,MI LasVegas,NV Seattle,WA Boston,MA 25MSAComposite 21.8% 5.1% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Exhibit 14: Radar Logic Daily Prices Month-Over-Month Change

5% Atlanta,GA Miami,FL Cleveland,OH Detroit,MI Chicago,IL Tampa,FL Minneapolis,MN NewYork,NY Denver,CO LasVegas,NV Philadelphia,PA Boston,MA Seattle,WA 25MSAComposite 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 6.3% 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 4.9% 4.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 12.0%

0.2% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 6.7% 7.2% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 9.5% 9.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.7% 10.8% 10.8% 12.9% 13.1%

Source: 28-Day RPXTM value for each MSA as of 4/21/2011

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Source: 28-Day RPXTM value for each MSA as of 4/21/2011

The decline in the RPX Boston price may overstate the actual decline in area home prices because transaction data for April 2011 was not available for all the counties within the Boston metropolitan area. We are addressing this issue with our data providers. 7 Manhattan Condo is a subset of the New York MSA. www.radarlogic.com

Exhibit 15: Transaction Counts8

MSA Miami, FL Jacksonville, FL Philadelphia, PA Tampa, FL Las Vegas, NV Sacramento, CA Phoenix, AZ San Francisco, CA New York, NY San Diego, CA Detroit, MI Los Angeles, CA Minneapolis, MN San Jose, CA Cleveland, OH Washington, DC Denver, CO Seattle, WA Chicago, IL Milwaukee, WI Charlotte, NC St. Louis, MO Columbus, OH Atlanta, GA Boston, MA 25-MSA Composite Manhattan Condo
Source: 28-Day RPX analytics as of 4/21/2011

April 2011 vs. April 2010 21.8% 16.2% 13.1% 12.4% 10.1% 3.6% 1.7% -1.2% -3.0% -5.9% -7.0% -7.4% -10.1% -12.8% -14.0% -14.2% -16.3% -16.7% -18.2% -22.3% -24.5% -29.5% -30.5% -33.4% -84.5% -9.2% 2.2%

April 2010 vs. April 2009 53.8% 50.0% 36.3% 46.5% 236.0% 22.1% 26.5% 39.2% 61.2% 17.5% 67.6% 19.4% 76.8% 29.0% 56.3% 17.6% 39.0% 51.7% 90.1% 68.1% 25.9% 105.1% 45.6% 44.9% 41.1% 44.0% 113.7%

April 2011 vs. March 2011 10.2% 12.2% -5.4% 28.0% -1.7% 1.6% 5.4% 4.0% 22.4% 21.4% 18.3% 1.1% 16.3% 0.4% 34.1% 31.5% 28.6% 6.5% 10.9% 41.1% 23.5% 2.1% 18.0% 24.9% -18.2% 11.6% 14.7%

April 2010 vs. March 2010 0.0% 6.4% 28.8% 8.6% -2.3% 0.8% 8.8% 10.1% 10.3% 6.8% 18.7% 6.1% 16.8% 8.0% 22.6% 13.0% 12.6% 19.4% 19.3% 27.4% 22.4% 14.5% 21.6% 10.7% 35.6% 11.3% 6.9%

Exhibit 16: Transaction Counts Year-Over-Year Change

110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% 10% 30% Miami,FL Jacksonville,FL Philadelphia,PA Tampa,FL LasVegas,NV Sacramento,CA Phoenix,AZ SanFrancisco,CA NewYork,NY SanDiego,CA Detroit,MI LosAngeles,CA Minneapolis,MN SanJose,CA Cleveland,OH Washington,DC Denver,CO Seattle,WA Chicago,IL Milwaukee,WI Charlotte,NC St.Louis,MO Columbus,OH Atlanta,GA Boston,MA 84.5% 25MSAComposite 21.8% 16.2% 13.1% 12.4% 10.1% 3.6% 1.7% 1.2% 3.0% 5.9% 7.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.8% 14.0% 14.2% 16.3% 16.7% 18.2% 22.3% 24.5% 29.5% 30.5% 33.4%

Exhibit 17: Transaction Counts Month-Over-Month Change

40% Milwaukee,WI Cleveland,OH Washington,DC Denver,CO Tampa,FL Atlanta,GA Charlotte,NC NewYork,NY SanDiego,CA Detroit,MI Columbus,OH Minneapolis,MN Jacksonville,FL Chicago,IL Miami,FL Seattle,WA Phoenix,AZ SanFrancisco,CA St.Louis,MO Sacramento,CA LosAngeles,CA SanJose,CA LasVegas,NV Philadelphia,PA Boston,MA 25MSAComposite 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

41.1% 34.1% 31.5% 28.6% 28.0% 24.9% 23.5% 22.4% 21.4% 18.3% 18.0% 16.3% 12.2% 10.9% 10.2% 6.5% 5.4% 4.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7% 5.4% 18.2% 11.6%

9.2%

Source: 28-Day RPXTM value for each MSA as of 4/21/2011

Source: 28-Day RPXTM value for each MSA as of 4/21/2011

Transaction counts reflect the transactions included in the calculation of the Radar Logic Daily Prices and may not reflect transaction volume in the market. www.radarlogic.com

RPX Forward Price Fixings

Price fixings are established each trading day by a dealer poll and represent the midmarket expectation of the reference value to be published on the contract expiration date. For the chart below, the 25-MSA RPX Composite prices are plotted on a publication-date basis. The names of the series indicate the dates those price fixings were published.

Exhibit 18: Historical Fixings for RPX Composite Forwards RPXCompositePrice $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Official RPX Daily Fixings as of 6/17/2011

2/17/2011

4/15/2011

6/17/2011

Exhibit 19: Cumulative Home Price Appreciation Implied by RPX Composite Forward Fixings as of 6/17/2011
28-Day RPX on 2/17/2011 $182.55 12/31/2011 4.1% 12/31/2012 4.6% 12/31/2013 5.2% 12/31/2014 5.7% 12/31/2015 6.3%

Source: Official RPX Daily Fixings as of 6/17/2011

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About Radar Logic

Radar Logic Incorporated, a real estate data and analytics company, calculates and publishes the Radar Logic Daily Prices. The prices track housing values for major U.S. metropolitan areas and are the basis of the Residential Property Index (RPX), a market that enables real estate to be traded as a liquid asset, via property derivatives marketed by major financial institutions. RPX allows real estate and financial professionals to manage opportunity and risk, invest in real estate values without owning physical assets and effectively analyze markets using a consistent metric: price per square foot. Data in the RPX Monthly Housing Market Report reflect the 28-day aggregated value of Radar Logic Daily Prices. The price per square foot metric used significantly reduces the influence of property sizes on overall housing price trends, which can skew results. The Daily Prices for each MSA are not adjusted for seasonal variations. In some cases, Daily Prices may vary based on reporting characteristics within individual MSAs. The RPX Monthly Housing Market Report provides insight and detailed analysis of Radar Logics 25 MSAs and the Manhattan Condo market. This study is based on the premise that there is no national housing market; rather, each MSA, while having some economic influences in common, is influenced primarily by local conditions. The May 2011 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report will be released on July 21, 2011, at 4:00 PM EDT.

RPX Analytics & Research

Radar Logic offers specialized analytic services which allow real estate and financial professionals to view current and historical price per square foot and transaction count trends for all markets and sub-markets we track. MSAs can be segmented by location (zip code and county), property type (single family, multi-family and condo), property size, date range, and sale price. The database is derived from our neutral, public source records. Our data provide a means for all entities associated with or affected by housing prices to maintain market data streams on a constant, neutral and daily-updated basis. For additional insight on this report or for inquiries about research or analytic products, please contact: Radar Logic Incorporated 180 Varick Street, Suite 502 New York, NY 10014 212.965.0300 info@radarlogic.com 2011 Radar Logic Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Data presented AS IS. Radar Logic does not make, and hereby expressly disclaims, any representation or warranty of any manner in connection with the information including, without limitation, with respect to its accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose. This report may not be republished in whole or in part without the expressed permission of Radar Logic.

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