M&A

PREDICTOR

FEBRUARY 2012

What is

KPMGs
M&A
Predictor?

Confidence dips in global market

Despite still being up on the dark days of 2009, the
first six months of 2012 look set to be challenging.
As indicated by the falling worldwide deal market,
there has been a fall in confidence for global M&A, with
forward P/E ratios down by 5 percent since June 2011
and down 14 percent over a year. It is a slower rate of
decline than in the previous six months, but nevertheless
it indicates that the gradual improvement in M&A over the
past two years is coming to a halt.

KPMGs M&A Predictor is a forward-looking tool that

helps clients to forecast worldwide trends in mergers
and acquisitions. The Predictor was established in
2007. It looks at the appetite and capacity for M&A
deals by tracking and projecting important indicators
12 months forward. The rise or fall of forward P/E
(price/earnings) ratios offers a good guide to the
overall market confidence, while net debt to
EBITDA (earnings before tax, depreciation and
amortization) ratios help gauge the capacity of
companies to fund future acquisitions.
The Predictor covers the world by sector and
region. It is produced twice a year, using data
comprising 1,000 of the largest companies
in the world by market capitalization.*
David Simpson
Global Head of
Mergers & Acquisitions

14%
Market
Confidence

Since December
2010

18%
Net Debt/
EBITDA
By December
2012

Source: Capital IQ/KPMG analysis

*The financial services and property sectors are excluded from our analysis, as net debt/EBITDA ratios are not considered relevant in these industries. All the raw data within the
Predictor is sourced from Capital IQ. Where possible, earnings and EBITDA data is on a pre-exceptionals basis with the exception of Japan, for which GAAP has been used.
2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

While confidence
drops, capacity is
still rising.
Some sectors faring better than others
Confidence lags capacity

Across all sectors, year ahead net profit

expectations have dropped since our last survey.
This is the first time in two years that this has
happened, with the pinch being felt especially
in Basic Materials, Industrials, Utilities and
Consumer Discretionary.

Appetite in the M&A market continues to

drop, although the capacity to transact
continues to rise, with overall net debt
forecast to drop 12 percent globally
and net debt to EBITDA ratios
Against this backdrop, confidence in many industries
expected to be down 18 percent.
is
predictably muted, with forward P/E ratios
This increased capacity to transact
particularly down in Basic Materials (14 percent down)
is not matched by the motivation
and
Industrials (9 percent down).
to undertake deals in the current
climate a reluctance that looks
Some sectors are bearing up better than others,
likely to set the tone for the next
however. Consumer Staple actually registers a 2 percent
six months.
forward P/E ratio increase, while Technology remains
flat. Viewed in the longer term, Healthcare is also faring
relatively well. Despite registering a 3 percent P/E decrease
between June and December 2011, this is on the back of
two successive six-month increases, leaving the sector in an
overall healthier situation than it was 12 months ago.

Market confidence by industry sector

16
15

Forward P/E ratios

14
13
12
11
10
9
8

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Basic materials

Consumer discretionary

Energy

Healthcare

Industrials

Consumer staple

Technology

Telecommunications Services

Utilities

Source: Capital IQ/KPMG Analysis

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

We are forecasting a modest decline in

M&A for the first six months of 2012.

Number of deals

2,300,000
2,200,000
2,100,000
2,000,000
1,900,000
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
No. of Deals

1,800,000

Value (US$m)

Number of deals

Americas completed deals: 1 year trailing January December 11

11,900
11,800
11,700
11,600
11,500
11,400
11,300
11,200
11,100
11,000
10,900

1,350,000
1,300,000
1,250,000
1,200,000
1,150,000
1,100,000
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
No. of Deals

1,050,000

Value (US$m)

Number of deals

AsPac completed deals: 1 year trailing January December 11

9,500

650,000

9,000

600,000

8,500

550,000

8,000

500,000

7,500

450,000

7,000

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
No. of Deals

400,000

Value (US$m)

EMA completed deals: 1 year trailing January December 11

15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
No. of Deals

1,000,000
950,000
900,000
850,000
800,000
750,000
700,000
650,000
600,000

Value (US$m)

Overall the first six months of

2012, and probably beyond,
will show an interruption to

2,400,000

Value (US$m)

With a general downward

trend in net debt/EBITDA ratios
globally, companies have more
capacity to undertake M&A but
are not showing the confidence
to do so. Instead, they are
prioritizing debt reduction and
balance sheet management
over M&A growth opportunities.

2,500,000

Value (US$m)

There are big variations

between some of the worlds
major economies with India and
Germany showing confidence
drops of 19 and 18 percent
respectively over the last six
months compared with the
UK with only a 2 percent drop
and the US which remains flat.
Globally, forward P/E ratios are
down across most countries.
One notable exception is Japan,
which registered a 10 percent
increase over the past
six months. This is probably
due to unusually low midyear figures as a result of
the tsunami, rather than a
miraculous recovery, and it
is probably more accurate to
compare year-on-year data.

33,000
32,500
32,000
31,500
31,000
30,500
30,000
29,500
29,000
28,500
28,000

Value (US$m)

The total number of deals

completed worldwide within
the last 12 months has fallen,
with particular declines in
the EMA and AsPac regions.
However, global deal values are
modestly up, suggesting that
the big players are driving most
M&A activity while smaller
rivals struggle.

Worldwide completed deals: 1 year trailing January December 11

Number of deals

Lack of confidence
restricts deals

Value (US$m)

Source: Thomson Reuters SDC/KPMG analysis

Note: Figures shown are totals for the 12 month period up to the specified date

the M&A recovery of the

past two years, especially
as uncertainty over the
Eurozone crisis continues.
We are not forecasting a

steep decline; deal activity

will likely be supported by
corporate cash, private equity
and the availability of target
companies.

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

1,000

19
2
4
3
24
38
2
8
57
2
2
4
1
3
38
27
24
12
10
12
3
9
95
1
1
5
2
10
12
1
16
5
1
1
1
4
4
3
2
20
7
9
11
23
10
15
25
13
5
4
2
41
346

1,000

Global:

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Bermuda
Brazil
Canada
Channel Islands
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Egypt
Finland
France
Germany
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Luxembourg
Macau
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States

Global:

Source: Capital IQ/KPMG analysis

28
95
191
252
47
387

549,816
1,737,035
4,290,381
8,214,439
1,328,296
11,183,630

480,455
1,589,509
3,667,167
6,852,653
1,138,466
10,743,357

746,401
29,394
124,677
44,601
763,965
798,345
15,928
134,682
1,367,203
94,583
35,865
132,588
9,086
65,917
1,224,859
1,079,409
634,594
223,470
125,738
180,587
75,029
266,513
1,737,035
8,503
14,718
118,433
38,622
112,039
325,403
16,171
563,289
149,798
7,646
9,423
9,663
30,897
47,898
44,662
27,968
662,243
154,087
147,182
218,672
470,769
365,259
310,875
942,305
299,665
68,231
72,400
34,084
1,771,776
10,340,684

581,596
19,288
122,370
40,809
635,839
698,743
16,999
102,979
1,150,636
95,855
27,679
109,750
6,848
50,526
964,919
797,696
589,032
169,382
123,760
164,281
59,779
207,327
1,589,509
6,388
12,535
85,167
35,773
108,301
294,039
13,911
540,148
136,547
7,196
8,497
9,754
33,257
31,434
33,917
26,889
494,750
144,833
129,864
187,965
397,777
280,090
257,341
825,787
257,130
68,579
55,033
27,694
1,625,354
10,003,804

25,974,735 27,303,597 24,471,606

726,471
23,982
117,095
44,327
765,004
783,340
15,884
138,077
1,293,440
93,322
28,919
127,873
9,943
79,598
1,091,746
955,459
623,930
230,393
113,661
158,269
78,266
233,848
1,776,485
8,473
20,989
124,103
29,297
107,056
329,364
15,799
530,209
140,690
8,573
9,460
12,456
33,111
40,941
37,697
28,043
578,048
155,599
139,898
226,376
428,175
312,340
305,128
893,201
294,509
64,018
76,895
33,704
1,722,826
9,749,007

25,974,735 27,303,597 24,471,606

568,719
1,776,485
4,110,466
7,604,168
1,338,223
10,576,674

(6%)

(20%)
(20%)
5%
(8%)
(17%)
(11%)
7%
(25%)
(11%)
3%
(4%)
(14%)
(31%)
(37%)
(12%)
(17%)
(6%)
(26%)
9%
4%
(24%)
(11%)
(11%)
(25%)
(40%)
(31%)
22%
1%
(11%)
(12%)
2%
(3%)
(16%)
(10%)
(22%)
0%
(23%)
(10%)
(4%)
(14%)
(7%)
(7%)
(17%)
(7%)
(10%)
(16%)
(8%)
(13%)
7%
(28%)
(18%)
(6%)
3%

(6%)

(16%)
(11%)
(11%)
(10%)
(15%)
2%

5%

3%
23%
6%
1%
(0%)
2%
0%
(2%)
6%
1%
24%
4%
(9%)
(17%)
12%
13%
2%
(3%)
11%
14%
(4%)
14%
(2%)
0%
(30%)
(5%)
32%
5%
(1%)
2%
6%
6%
(11%)
(0%)
(22%)
(7%)
17%
18%
(0%)
15%
(1%)
5%
(3%)
10%
17%
2%
5%
2%
7%
(6%)
1%
3%
6%

5%

(3%)
(2%)
4%
8%
(1%)
6%

2,044,461

57,458
2,516
7,755
4,050
62,863
47,799
834
6,449
91,382
4,622
2,836
8,292
709
5,836
89,730
77,253
47,871
12,512
7,274
11,170
6,802
23,666
141,823
1,511
1,418
8,403
1,319
6,568
18,860
1,110
48,427
13,835
762
140
955
2,153
3,189
2,518
2,542
88,167
13,001
9,841
15,260
46,572
27,847
20,924
69,376
20,755
5,230
3,711
3,052
162,722
722,144

2,044,461

43,894
141,823
311,349
679,653
93,749
773,993

2,377,652

69,780
2,905
9,092
4,289
76,170
60,670
1,090
6,445
109,779
8,063
2,782
9,485
925
4,002
99,771
94,955
53,715
16,493
8,097
13,421
7,517
27,063
158,820
1,650
1,301
10,889
2,139
8,198
21,890
1,114
57,431
16,699
906
165
904
2,488
4,040
2,964
3,187
105,433
15,187
11,232
18,195
53,959
29,647
23,808
75,482
25,001
6,590
4,013
3,041
181,156
842,927

2,377,652

50,467
158,820
370,190
776,816
113,474
907,885

2,234,557

61,928
2,385
8,919
3,943
69,289
58,405
1,302
6,968
104,691
8,869
2,728
7,879
960
3,855
91,122
86,043
51,774
15,529
8,127
14,037
7,263
25,185
132,569
1,657
1,241
8,558
2,195
7,162
21,394
1,028
54,109
15,266
1,021
172
1,083
2,396
3,750
2,660
3,298
104,397
14,711
10,984
19,511
50,969
27,754
20,729
69,447
20,525
6,590
3,898
2,654
169,654
811,468

2,234,557

50,665
132,569
345,720
724,183
107,604
873,816
16%

15%
12%
19%
14%
21%
17%
(6%)

0%
(17%)
(7%)
(7%)
(5%)
(4%)

9%

16%

(6%)

8%
21% (11%)
(5%) 15% (18%)
15% 17% (2%)
(3%)
6%
(8%)
10% 21% (9%)
22% 27% (4%)
56% 31% 19%
8%
(0%)
8%
15% 20% (5%)
92% 74% 10%
(4%) (2%) (2%)
(5%) 14% (17%)
35% 30%
4%
(34%) (31%) (4%)
2%
11% (9%)
11% 23% (9%)
8%
12% (4%)
24% 32% (6%)
12% 11%
0%
26% 20%
5%
7%
11% (3%)
6%
14% (7%)
(7%) 12% (17%)
10%
9%
0%
(12%) (8%) (5%)
2%
30% (21%)
66% 62%
3%
9%
25% (13%)
13% 16% (2%)
(7%)
0%
(8%)
12% 19% (6%)
10% 21% (9%)
34% 19% 13%
23% 18%
5%
13% (5%) 20%
11% 16% (4%)
18% 27% (7%)
6%
18% (10%)
30% 25%
3%
18% 20% (1%)
13% 17% (3%)
12% 14% (2%)
28% 19%
7%
9%
16% (6%)
(0%)
6%
(6%)
(1%) 14% (13%)
0%
9%
(8%)
(1%) 20% (18%)
26% 26% (0%)
5%
8%
(3%)
(13%) (0%) (13%)
4%
11% (6%)
12% 17% (4%)

9%

15%
(7%)
11%
7%
15%
13%

12.7

12.6
9.5
15.1
10.9
12.2
16.4
19.0
21.4
14.2
20.2
10.2
15.4
14.0
13.6
12.2
12.4
13.0
18.4
15.6
14.2
11.5
9.9
12.5
5.6
14.8
14.8
22.2
16.3
17.5
14.2
10.9
10.2
11.3
67.5
13.0
15.4
12.8
15.0
11.0
6.6
12.0
14.2
14.8
9.2
11.2
14.6
12.9
14.2
12.2
20.7
11.0
10.6
13.5

12.7

13.0
12.5
13.2
11.2
14.3
13.7

11.5

10.7
10.1
13.7
10.4
10.0
13.2
14.6
20.9
12.5
11.7
12.9
14.0
9.8
16.5
12.3
11.4
11.8
13.5
15.5
13.5
10.0
9.8
10.9
5.2
11.3
10.9
18.1
13.7
14.9
14.5
9.8
9.0
8.4
57.1
10.7
12.4
11.9
15.1
8.8
6.3
10.1
13.1
12.0
8.7
12.3
13.1
12.5
12.0
10.4
18.0
11.2
9.8
12.3

11.5

10.9
10.9
11.6
10.6
11.7
12.3

11.0

9.4
8.1
13.7
10.3
9.2
12.0
13.1
14.8
11.0
10.8
10.1
13.9
7.1
13.1
10.6
9.3
11.4
10.9
15.2
11.7
8.2
8.2
12.0
3.9
10.1
10.0
16.3
15.1
13.7
13.5
10.0
8.9
7.0
49.3
9.0
13.9
8.4
12.8
8.2
4.7
9.8
11.8
9.6
7.8
10.1
12.4
11.9
12.5
10.4
14.1
10.4
9.6
12.3

11.0

9.5
12.0
10.6
9.5
10.6
12.3

(14%)

(26%)
(15%)
(9%)
(5%)
(25%)
(27%)
(31%)
(31%)
(22%)
(46%)
(1%)
(10%)
(49%)
(4%)
(13%)
(25%)
(13%)
(41%)
(3%)
(17%)
(28%)
(17%)
(4%)
(31%)
(32%)
(33%)
(27%)
(7%)
(21%)
(5%)
(9%)
(12%)
(37%)
(27%)
(31%)
(10%)
(35%)
(15%)
(26%)
(28%)
(18%)
(17%)
(35%)
(15%)
(10%)
(15%)
(8%)
(12%)
(15%)
(32%)
(5%)
(10%)
(9%)

(14%)

(27%)
(4%)
(20%)
(15%)
(26%)
(10%)

(10%)

(15%)
6%
(9%)
(5%)
(18%)
(20%)
(23%)
(2%)
(12%)
(42%)
26%
(9%)
(30%)
21%
1%
(8%)
(9%)
(26%)
(1%)
(5%)
(13%)
(0%)
(13%)
(8%)
(24%)
(26%)
(19%)
(16%)
(15%)
2%
(10%)
(12%)
(25%)
(15%)
(18%)
(19%)
(8%)
1%
(20%)
(4%)
(15%)
(8%)
(19%)
(5%)
10%
(10%)
(3%)
(16%)
(15%)
(13%)
2%
(8%)
(9%)

(10%)

4,344,021

(5%)

4,344,021

(12%) 67,497
(20%) 10,467
0%
41,803
(0%)
10,150
(9%) 126,947
(9%) 153,773
(11%)
-1,410
(29%) 24,283
(12%) 190,678
(8%)
2,657
(21%)
8,246
(0%)
21,663
(27%)
1,911
(20%)
1,548
(14%) 316,003
(18%) 152,128
(4%)
14,980
(19%) 15,796
(2%)
2,981
(13%) 11,557
(18%)
9,080
(16%) 178,774
10% 754,541
(25%)
-4,302
(11%)
198
(9%)
28,463
(10%)
1,033
11%
6,936
(8%)
25,579
(7%)
753
2%
93,889
(0%)
13,506
(17%)
-608
(14%)
868
(16%)
-755
12%
9,882
(29%)
-765
(15%) 26,161
(7%)
6,265
(25%) 118,435
(3%)
37,839
(10%) 19,641
(20%)
3,593
(11%) 58,324
(18%) 214,109
(5%)
20,529
(5%)
87,375
5%
1,347
1%
12,841
(22%)
1,563
(7%)
3,080
(2%) 275,177
0% 1,164,657

(5%)

3,814,160

77,187
10,506
35,984
7,800
150,513
143,204
-1,772
25,023
194,288
3,208
8,799
20,380
1,192
2,271
302,797
117,258
266
10,555
1,059
5,896
4,990
177,211
704,910
-4,930
-1,174
25,081
-134
3,126
18,789
836
84,331
14,011
0
2,241
-952
10,296
336
26,009
4,644
99,864
32,841
17,119
88
45,251
207,377
15,664
65,361
-235
13,111
-1,868
2,069
267,627
861,715

3,814,160

(12%)

14%
0%
(14%)
(23%)
19%
(7%)
26%
3%
2%
21%
7%
(6%)
(38%)
47%
(4%)
(23%)
(98%)
(33%)
(64%)
(49%)
(45%)
(1%)
(7%)
15%
(692%)
(12%)
(113%)
(55%)
(27%)
11%
(10%)
4%
(100%)
158%
26%
4%
(144%)
(1%)
(26%)
(16%)
(13%)
(13%)
(98%)
(22%)
(3%)
(24%)
(25%)
(117%)
2%
(219%)
(33%)
(3%)
(26%)

(12%)

4,875,509

7%

13%
9%
13%
5%
12%
6%

4,546,874

4,875,509

7%

109,634 121,689 11%

6,713
7,726
15%
20,229
21,801
8%
7,720
8,252
7%
123,671 137,598 11%
123,540 134,726
9%
1,334
1,860
39%
14,121
16,026
13%
209,197 235,967 13%
15,578
17,079
10%
5,462
5,791
6%
22,263
22,866
3%
1,409
1,741
24%
7,442
7,813
5%
229,017 240,277
5%
207,262 215,626
4%
99,491
107,844
8%
21,076
25,961
23%
13,245
14,978
13%
21,659
24,752
14%
8,873
9,942
12%
88,949
94,307
6%
402,756 438,320
9%
1,906
1,888
(1%)
2,181
2,273
4%
18,006
19,669
9%
2,531
3,118
23%
13,687
15,701
15%
43,201
49,458
14%
2,023
2,087
3%
125,007 128,768
3%
52,190
54,223
4%
1,476
1,820
23%
486
435
(10%)
1,135
1,230
8%
5,405
5,967
10%
8,056
8,001
(1%)
6,965
7,910
14%
6,420
6,873
7%
184,254 180,874 (2%)
29,553
30,931
5%
15,800
17,580
11%
29,672
36,752
24%
77,958
93,283
20%
77,855
85,272
10%
37,599
38,775
3%
109,471 119,943 10%
26,887
30,017
12%
10,672
12,237
15%
7,526
8,371
11%
5,632
6,202
10%
308,346 324,185
5%
1,573,139 1,667,427 6%

4,546,874

(16%) (13%) 62,720

45,487 (27%) 85,764
96,800
(13%) 10% 754,541 704,910 (7%) 402,756 438,320
(12%) (8%) 397,896 369,200 (7%) 609,453 688,485
(5%) (11%) 1,621,574 1,485,262 (8%) 1,546,797 1,620,110
(18%) (10%) 178,711 196,582 10% 197,706 221,390
(10%) (0%) 1,328,580 1,012,719 (24%) 1,704,398 1,810,404

1.0

0.6
1.6
2.1
1.3
1.0
1.2
-1.1
1.7
0.9
0.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
0.2
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
1.0
2.0
1.9
-2.3
0.1
1.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.3
-0.4
1.8
-0.7
1.8
-0.1
3.8
1.0
0.6
1.3
1.2
0.1
0.7
2.8
0.5
0.8
0.1
1.2
0.2
0.5
0.9
0.7

1.0

0.7
1.9
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.8

0.8

0.6
1.4
1.7
0.9
1.1
1.1
-1.0
1.6
0.8
0.2
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.3
1.3
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.9
1.6
-2.6
-0.5
1.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.0
5.1
-0.8
1.7
0.0
3.3
0.7
0.6
1.1
1.0
0.0
0.5
2.4
0.4
0.5
0.0
1.1
-0.2
0.3
0.8
0.5

0.8

0.5
1.6
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.6

(18%)

3%
(13%)
(20%)
(28%)
7%
(15%)
(10%)
(9%)
(10%)
10%
1%
(8%)
(49%)
40%
(9%)
(26%)
(98%)
(46%)
(69%)
(55%)
(51%)
(7%)
(14%)
16%
(668%)
(19%)
(111%)
(61%)
(36%)
8%
(13%)
(0%)
(100%)
188%
16%
(6%)
(144%)
(12%)
(31%)
(14%)
(17%)
(22%)
(98%)
(35%)
(12%)
(26%)
(32%)
(116%)
(11%)
(207%)
(39%)
(7%)
(30%)

(18%)

(36%)
(14%)
(18%)
(13%)
(2%)
(28%)

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

(10%)

(22%)
(34%)
(2%)
(9%)
(17%)
(12%)
7%
(24%)
(16%)
1%
(23%)
(17%)
(25%)
(23%)
(21%)
(26%)
(7%)
(24%)
(2%)
(9%)
(20%)
(22%)
(8%)
(25%)
(15%)
(28%)
(7%)
(3%)
(10%)
(14%)
(4%)
(9%)
(6%)
(10%)
1%
8%
(34%)
(24%)
(4%)
(25%)
(6%)
(12%)
(14%)
(16%)
(23%)
(17%)
(12%)
(14%)
1%
(24%)
(19%)
(8%)
(3%)

(10%)

(13%)
(8%)
(15%)
(17%)
(14%)
(4%)

Market Cap
Net Profit (Pre Exce)
P/E
Net Debt
EBITDA
Net Debt/EBITDA
As at
As at
As at
31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
Number of
% change
% change
% change
%
%
%
Companies 31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
change
change
change
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
D
E
F
G
D/F
E/G

Africa and Middle East

AsPac : Japan (GAAP)
AsPac : Other
Europe
LatAm
North America

All figures are in US$m

Region

Country

1,000

Global:

Global:

Source: Capital IQ/KPMG analysis

3,354,011
3,277,567
4,725,616
2,486,759
3,066,337
3,466,679
3,275,880
2,203,563
1,447,184

229,774
21,212
31,522
43,060
39,848
7,622
11,801
149,699
15,277
99,457
467,866
33,715
127,558
363,110
117,221
252,653
208,283
67,172
878,409
412,508
897,976
30,062
485,285
374,973
480,945
542,374
187,850
1,190,139
892,774
1,406,698
873,464
971,914
1,219,894
264,870
702,111
692,576
295,187
38,681
331,835
54,400
305,076
23,707
181,408
98,001
661,045
1,444,525
2,023,870
1,412,614
1,151,780
1,441,894
2,241,905
419,688
386,309

199,336
16,431
28,720
35,719
34,976
8,532
10,907
130,392
15,443
82,889
399,413
29,183
128,646
332,252
132,773
222,535
200,674
61,146
622,922
350,935
767,527
26,704
381,187
367,724
433,862
541,092
175,214
836,308
713,899
1,267,097
819,012
748,126
1,144,239
225,112
587,881
510,978
222,993
30,599
278,706
43,134
303,148
24,618
150,711
84,556
569,756
1,364,421
1,865,327
1,364,888
1,031,529
1,479,419
2,237,598
413,202
417,216

25,974,735 27,303,597 24,471,606

238,313
22,063
31,463
46,865
41,246
7,655
9,605
155,900
15,610
103,732
468,129
27,574
130,017
370,006
119,547
282,506
195,894
79,080
852,774
353,468
867,267
31,318
479,491
357,586
473,092
516,310
179,159
1,161,933
791,423
1,278,975
761,125
897,309
1,161,768
244,058
674,242
633,334
319,865
41,306
358,465
56,434
289,059
19,548
166,305
87,243
675,484
1,370,931
1,859,426
1,254,970
1,070,551
1,366,775
2,243,299
381,612
353,628

5%

0%
8%
7%
12%
5%
5%
0%
5%
7%
(10%)

(24%)
(12%)
(10%)
(4%)
(16%)
(1%)
(4%)
(8%)
(13%)

(6%)

5%

(10%)

(16%) (4%) (13%)

(26%) (4%) (23%)
(9%)
0%
(9%)
(24%) (8%) (17%)
(15%) (3%) (12%)
11% (0%) 12%
14% 23% (8%)
(16%) (4%) (13%)
(1%) (2%)
1%
(20%) (4%) (17%)
(15%) (0%) (15%)
6%
22% (13%)
(1%) (2%)
1%
(10%) (2%) (8%)
11% (2%) 13%
(21%) (11%) (12%)
2%
6%
(4%)
(23%) (15%) (9%)
(27%) 3% (29%)
(1%) 17% (15%)
(12%) 4% (15%)
(15%) (4%) (11%)
(21%) 1% (21%)
3%
5%
(2%)
(8%)
2% (10%)
5%
5%
(0%)
(2%)
5%
(7%)
(28%) 2% (30%)
(10%) 13% (20%)
(1%) 10% (10%)
8%
15% (6%)
(17%) 8% (23%)
(2%)
5%
(6%)
(8%)
9% (15%)
(13%) 4% (16%)
(19%) 9% (26%)
(30%) (8%) (24%)
(26%) (6%) (21%)
(22%) (7%) (16%)
(24%) (4%) (21%)
5%
6%
(1%)
26% 21%
4%
(9%)
9% (17%)
(3%) 12% (14%)
(16%) (2%) (14%)
(0%)
5%
(6%)
0%
9%
(8%)
9%
13% (3%)
(4%)
8% (10%)
8%
5%
3%
(0%) (0%) (0%)
8%
10% (2%)
18%
9%
8%

(6%)

2,534,204 (24%)
2,875,697 (6%)
4,236,561 (4%)
2,374,970 7%
2,571,204 (12%)
3,435,834 4%
3,154,632 (4%)
2,023,952 (3%)
1,264,552 (6%)

25,974,735 27,303,597 24,471,606

3,352,100
3,047,319
4,423,171
2,224,294
2,915,036
3,302,391
3,272,108
2,090,262
1,348,054

2,044,461

17,447
1,013
2,712
4,820
2,885
346
571
13,211
890
8,811
34,650
2,785
9,394
34,247
7,640
18,635
20,352
5,309
69,308
28,303
69,874
1,437
34,456
18,821
35,000
42,462
11,687
102,610
56,860
165,240
70,903
65,517
79,228
17,806
66,468
55,019
31,847
1,527
24,131
2,569
13,077
1,734
11,398
7,465
44,404
92,565
132,429
112,172
74,470
96,997
167,089
25,740
28,127

2,044,461

274,427
214,918
397,171
198,726
214,144
216,109
240,836
179,632
108,498

2,377,652

20,942
1,042
3,648
5,139
3,742
421
655
14,074
803
9,193
41,902
2,415
9,133
40,866
8,856
21,666
21,575
3,214
86,323
36,622
83,302
1,656
39,530
22,367
41,634
45,722
13,034
127,553
70,732
196,796
73,824
77,509
86,315
18,606
67,454
58,025
37,185
1,824
31,905
3,037
16,210
1,677
14,082
7,554
56,115
106,240
177,631
119,015
89,291
104,849
197,261
29,046
28,437

2,377,652

337,310
258,363
495,698
208,767
253,976
239,018
281,500
191,953
111,068
9%

8%
9%
19%
3%
9%
8%
12%
2%
(5%)
16%

23%
20%
25%
5%
19%
11%
17%
7%
2%

2,234,557

9%

16%

21,919
26% 20%
924
(9%)
3%
3,600
33% 35%
4,884
1%
7%
3,910
36% 30%
437
26% 22%
672
18% 15%
13,536
2%
7%
783
(12%) (10%)
7,464
(15%) 4%
29,230 (16%) 21%
2,226
(20%) (13%)
8,293
(12%) (3%)
38,227
12% 19%
9,105
19% 16%
17,630
(5%) 16%
21,712
7%
6%
-1,319 (125%) (39%)
74,228
7%
25%
35,516
25% 29%
79,973
14% 19%
1,619
13% 15%
36,218
5%
15%
22,414
19% 19%
38,658
10% 19%
45,334
7%
8%
11,761
1%
12%
106,249
4%
24%
67,542
19% 24%
191,564 16% 19%
72,346
2%
4%
67,609
3%
18%
82,569
4%
9%
18,382
3%
4%
62,983
(5%)
1%
54,938
(0%)
5%
31,608
(1%) 17%
1,778
16% 19%
30,992
28% 32%
2,659
3%
18%
16,369
25% 24%
1,906
10% (3%)
13,963
23% 24%
8,329
12%
1%
55,370
25% 26%
99,829
8%
15%
164,183 24% 34%
118,317
5%
6%
85,605
15% 20%
102,297
5%
8%
193,690 16% 18%
26,317
2%
13%
28,207
0%
1%

2,234,557

296,838
234,819
472,538
205,459
234,228
233,191
270,939
183,846
102,699

(6%)

5%
(11%)
(1%)
(5%)
4%
4%
3%
(4%)
(2%)
(19%)
(30%)
(8%)
(9%)
(6%)
3%
(19%)
1%
(141%)
(14%)
(3%)
(4%)
(2%)
(8%)
0%
(7%)
(1%)
(10%)
(17%)
(5%)
(3%)
(2%)
(13%)
(4%)
(1%)
(7%)
(5%)
(15%)
(3%)
(3%)
(12%)
1%
14%
(1%)
10%
(1%)
(6%)
(8%)
(1%)
(4%)
(2%)
(2%)
(9%)
(1%)

(6%)

(12%)
(9%)
(5%)
(2%)
(8%)
(2%)
(4%)
(4%)
(8%)

12.7

13.7
21.8
11.6
9.7
14.3
22.1
16.8
11.8
17.5
11.8
13.5
9.9
13.8
10.8
15.6
15.2
9.6
14.9
12.3
12.5
12.4
21.8
13.9
19.0
13.5
12.2
15.3
11.3
13.9
7.7
10.7
13.7
14.7
13.7
10.1
11.5
10.0
27.1
14.9
22.0
22.1
11.3
14.6
11.7
15.2
14.8
14.0
11.2
14.4
14.1
13.4
14.8
12.6

12.7

12.2
14.2
11.1
11.2
13.6
15.3
13.6
11.6
12.4

11.5

11.0
20.3
8.6
8.4
10.6
18.1
18.0
10.6
19.0
10.8
11.2
14.0
14.0
8.9
13.2
11.7
9.7
20.9
10.2
11.3
10.8
18.2
12.3
16.8
11.6
11.9
14.4
9.3
12.6
7.1
11.8
12.5
14.1
14.2
10.4
11.9
7.9
21.2
10.4
17.9
18.8
14.1
12.9
13.0
11.8
13.6
11.4
11.9
12.9
13.8
11.4
14.4
13.6

11.5

9.9
12.7
9.5
11.9
12.1
14.5
11.6
11.5
13.0

11.0

9.1
17.8
8.0
7.3
8.9
19.5
16.2
9.6
19.7
11.1
13.7
13.1
15.5
8.7
14.6
12.6
9.2
-46.4
8.4
9.9
9.6
16.5
10.5
16.4
11.2
11.9
14.9
7.9
10.6
6.6
11.3
11.1
13.9
12.2
9.3
9.3
7.1
17.2
9.0
16.2
18.5
12.9
10.8
10.2
10.3
13.7
11.4
11.5
12.0
14.5
11.6
15.7
14.8

11.0

8.5
12.2
9.0
11.6
11.0
14.7
11.6
11.0
12.3

(14%)

(33%)
(18%)
(31%)
(25%)
(37%)
(12%)
(3%)
(18%)
12%
(6%)
1%
32%
12%
(20%)
(7%)
(17%)
(4%)
(411%)
(32%)
(21%)
(23%)
(24%)
(24%)
(14%)
(17%)
(2%)
(3%)
(30%)
(24%)
(15%)
5%
(19%)
(5%)
(11%)
(8%)
(19%)
(30%)
(36%)
(39%)
(26%)
(16%)
15%
(26%)
(13%)
(32%)
(8%)
(19%)
3%
(16%)
3%
(14%)
6%
18%

(14%)

(30%)
(14%)
(19%)
3%
(19%)
(4%)
(14%)
(5%)
(1%)

(10%)

(20%)
(7%)
(26%)
(14%)
(26%)
(18%)
7%
(10%)
8%
(8%)
(17%)
41%
1%
(18%)
(15%)
(23%)
0%
40%
(17%)
(10%)
(13%)
(17%)
(12%)
(12%)
(15%)
(2%)
(6%)
(18%)
(9%)
(8%)
10%
(8%)
(4%)
4%
3%
4%
(21%)
(22%)
(30%)
(18%)
(15%)
25%
(12%)
11%
(23%)
(8%)
(19%)
6%
(10%)
(2%)
(15%)
(3%)
8%

(10%)

(5%)

(17%)
(13%)
(8%)
(13%)
(16%)
8%
(10%)
(9%)
4%
3%
22%
(6%)
11%
(2%)
10%
8%
(4%)
(322%)
(18%)
(12%)
(11%)
(9%)
(14%)
(2%)
(3%)
1%
3%
(16%)
(16%)
(7%)
(4%)
(12%)
(2%)
(14%)
(10%)
(22%)
(11%)
(19%)
(14%)
(9%)
(2%)
(9%)
(16%)
(22%)
(13%)
1%
(0%)
(3%)
(7%)
5%
2%
9%
9%

(5%)

4,344,021

20,678
642
217
9,082
6,339
20
-1,171
12,771
14,142
63,241
184,105
1,577
-12,226
289,998
32,325
-1,676
54,046
143,150
57,082
-6,732
89,082
-860
95,716
18,416
-22,055
21,639
145,609
159,980
-7,604
243,134
89,660
151,996
213,497
-23,774
373,131
421,554
30,417
5,947
50,293
9,372
14,479
465
34,485
33,253
77,376
198,573
304,452
43,215
158,538
241,070
-196,094
187,126
314,324

4,344,021

(12%)

4,546,874

3,814,160

(12%)

4,546,874

4,875,509

40,228
1,099
6,255
6,723
5,721
797
804
31,799
3,374
26,923
99,710
10,523
19,587
87,911
29,609
52,880
90,643
20,533
129,735
52,293
163,138
2,208
69,400
37,369
70,738
128,043
35,562
213,030
145,976
431,091
119,941
151,878
159,410
31,302
192,731
174,750
55,825
3,973
60,953
5,881
31,665
3,074
39,362
20,656
110,391
224,320
411,149
196,141
173,119
194,283
296,199
113,531
91,270

4,875,509

(11%) 531,937 576,131

(12%) 483,537 527,371
(0%) 1,033,554 1,083,110
(84%) 336,762 344,599
(11%) 453,033 493,910
(7%) 414,764 453,135
88% 408,017 454,998
(7%) 564,864 596,110
4%
320,407 346,146

13,167 (36%) 34,584

591
(8%)
909
649
199%
5,261
5,532
(39%)
5,865
4,759
(25%)
5,082
-56
(382%)
657
-1,557
33%
752
6,402
(50%) 29,525
15,999
13%
3,129
58,056
(8%)
25,547
181,094 (2%)
85,903
3,222
104% 12,367
-23,128
89%
18,992
286,112 (1%)
81,714
25,555 (21%) 27,220
-17,222 928% 47,614
42,183 (22%) 84,793
149,039
4%
18,606
59,582
4%
117,507
-20,209 200% 44,369
83,895
(6%) 148,607
-1,052
22%
1,887
93,665
(2%)
61,963
17,024
(8%)
31,471
-36,742
67%
56,101
19,261 (11%) 117,513
153,776
6%
30,034
145,991 (9%) 202,135
-31,959 320% 140,036
220,130 (9%) 418,419
66,771 (26%) 117,169
138,170 (9%) 142,262
191,127 (10%) 147,049
-30,184
27%
28,998
356,157 (5%) 189,077
429,059
2%
161,653
29,825
(2%)
54,373
5,607
(6%)
3,447
70,143
39%
52,959
9,990
7%
5,151
10,660 (26%) 25,748
370
(20%)
2,647
33,406
(3%)
35,400
36,581
10%
17,981
56,247 (27%) 97,792
195,547 (2%) 208,872
308,516
1%
395,942
-27,767 (164%) 192,849
104,356 (34%) 156,863
236,556 (2%) 182,618
-373,921 91% 271,904
178,261 (5%) 108,556
334,923
7%
89,003

3,814,160

(19%) (14%) 408,775 362,867

(11%) (3%) 374,930 330,672
(14%) (6%) 688,755 686,556
6%
(3%) 128,871
20,355
(11%) (9%) 711,959 637,053
(5%)
2%
519,807 480,865
(14%) 0%
-244,305 -459,255
(1%) (4%) 683,197 635,669
5%
(5%) 1,072,032 1,119,377

7%

16%
21%
19%
15%
13%
21%
7%
8%
8%
5%
16%
(15%)
3%
8%
9%
11%
7%
10%
10%
18%
10%
17%
12%
19%
26%
9%
18%
5%
4%
3%
2%
7%
8%
8%
2%
8%
3%
15%
15%
14%
23%
16%
11%
15%
13%
7%
4%
2%
10%
6%
9%
5%
3%

7%

8%
9%
5%
2%
9%
9%
12%
6%
8%

1.0

0.6
0.7
0.0
1.5
1.2
0.0
-1.6
0.4
4.5
2.5
2.1
0.1
-0.6
3.5
1.2
0.0
0.6
7.7
0.5
-0.2
0.6
-0.5
1.5
0.6
-0.4
0.2
4.8
0.8
-0.1
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.5
-0.8
2.0
2.6
0.6
1.7
0.9
1.8
0.6
0.2
1.0
1.8
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.2
1.0
1.3
-0.7
1.7
3.5

1.0

0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
1.6
1.3
-0.6
1.2
3.3

0.8

0.3
0.5
0.1
0.8
0.8
-0.1
-1.9
0.2
4.7
2.2
1.8
0.3
-1.2
3.3
0.9
-0.3
0.5
7.3
0.5
-0.4
0.5
-0.5
1.3
0.5
-0.5
0.2
4.3
0.7
-0.2
0.5
0.6
0.9
1.2
-1.0
1.8
2.5
0.5
1.4
1.2
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.8
1.8
0.5
0.9
0.8
-0.1
0.6
1.2
-1.3
1.6
3.7

0.8

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.1
1.3
1.1
-1.0
1.1
3.2

A Consensus forecasts in existence on 31-Dec-10 in respect of the year ending 31-Dec-11 for net profit and P/E B Consensus forecasts in existence on 30-Jun-11 in respect of the year ending 30-Jun-12 for net profit and P/E C/G Consensus forecasts in existence on 31-Dec-11 in respect of the year ending 31-Dec-12 for net profit, P/E and EBITDA
D Actual/consensus net forecasts in existence on 31-Dec-11 in respect of the closest fiscal year end to 31-Dec-11 E Consensus forecasts in existence on 31-Dec-11 in respect of the closest fiscal year end to 31-Dec-12 F Consensus forecasts in existence on 31-Dec-11 in respect of the year ending 31-Dec-11

1,000

11
1
1
1
3
1
1
8
1
7
20
2
9
24
9
14
4
6
29
24
23
2
37
28
16
17
15
34
31
29
17
51
32
11
23
24
10
2
4
4
13
2
5
7
28
65
62
48
49
43
56
9
27

119
143
121
77
168
126
100
66
80

Africa and Middle East - Basic Materials

Africa and Middle East - Consumer discretionary
Africa and Middle East - Energy
Africa and Middle East - Healthcare
Africa and Middle East - Industrials
Africa and Middle East - Consumer staple
Africa and Middle East - Technology
Africa and Middle East - Telecommunications Services
Africa and Middle East - Utilities
Japan - Basic Materials
Japan - Consumer discretionary
Japan - Energy
Japan - Healthcare
Japan - Industrials
Japan - Consumer staple
Japan - Technology
Japan - Telecommunications Services
Japan - Utilities
AsPac - Basic Materials
AsPac - Consumer discretionary
AsPac - Energy
AsPac - Healthcare
AsPac - Industrials
AsPac - Consumer staple
AsPac - Technology
AsPac - Telecommunications Services
AsPac - Utilities
Europe - Basic Materials
Europe - Consumer discretionary
Europe - Energy
Europe - Healthcare
Europe - Industrials
Europe - Consumer staple
Europe - Technology
Europe - Telecommunications Services
Europe - Utilities
LatAm - Basic Materials
LatAm - Consumer discretionary
LatAm - Energy
LatAm - Industrials
LatAm - Consumer staple
LatAm - Technology
LatAm - Telecommunications Services
LatAm - Utilities
North America - Basic Materials
North America - Consumer discretionary
North America - Energy
North America - Healthcare
North America - Industrials
North America - Consumer staple
North America - Technology
North America - Telecommunications Services
North America - Utilities

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

(18%)

(45%)
(24%)
151%
(47%)
(33%)
(332%)
24%
(53%)
5%
(13%)
(15%)
140%
83%
(8%)
(27%)
825%
(27%)
(6%)
(5%)
155%
(14%)
4%
(13%)
(22%)
32%
(18%)
(11%)
(13%)
303%
(12%)
(27%)
(15%)
(17%)
18%
(6%)
(6%)
(4%)
(18%)
21%
(7%)
(40%)
(31%)
(13%)
(4%)
(36%)
(8%)
(2%)
(163%)
(40%)
(8%)
75%
(9%)
4%

(18%)

(18%)
(19%)
(5%)
(85%)
(18%)
(15%)
69%
(12%)
(3%)

Market Cap
Net Profit (Pre Exce)
P/E
Net Debt
EBITDA
Net Debt/EBITDA
As at
As at
As at
31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-11
Number of
% change
% change
% change
%
%
%
Companies 31-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 31-Dec-11
31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 30-Jun-12 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12
change
change
change
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
A
B
C
C vs A B vs A C vs B
D
E
F
G
D/F
E/G

Basic Materials
Consumer discretionary
Energy
Healthcare
Industrials
Consumer staple
Technology
Telecommunications Services
Utilities

All figures are in US$m

Industry

Region/Industry

KPMG Global M&A team

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2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent
firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to
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Publication name: M&A Predictor
Publication number: 120105
Publication date: February 2012