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IVRCL Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Revenue EBITDA PAT 3QFY12 1,203 94.8 6.8 3QFY11 1,417 140.2 42.3 % chg (yoy) (15.1) (32.4) (84.0) 2QFY12 1,046 93.8 8.1 % chg (qoq) 15.0 1.1 (16.6)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,611 2.0 96/27 836,985 2 18,202 5,532 IVRC.BO IVRC@IN
`60 `64
12 Months
IVRCL reported a disappointing set of numbers for 3QFY2012, with lower-thanexpected performance on all fronts. However, order inflow for 9MFY2012 was commendable at `10,700cr, given the current scenario. The companys order book stands at `25,000cr (4.4x FY2011 revenue, including L1 projects of `3,000cr). During the quarter, IVRCL Assets and Holdings has sold its Noida land (3 parcels out of 4) and is expecting to receive the cash to the tune of `225-300cr by March 2012. Further the company expects to divest stake in one road BOT project for ~`100-175cr in near term. This development is positive for the company as it will help to fulfill its equity commitment towards four under construction road BOT projects in FY2013 (excluding Sion Panvel, Raipur Bilaspur and Haryana projects). We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised target price of `64 (`56). Poor show on numbers front: IVRCLs revenue declined by 15.1% yoy to `1,203cr, below our estimate of `1,374cr. On the EBITDAM front, the company posted dismal margin of 7.9% (9.9%) and below our estimate of 9.2% as fixed overheads were not absorbed fully due to low turnover. Interest cost came in at `66.1cr, an increase of 11.6% yoy/1.3% qoq, lower than our expectations. On earnings front, IVRCL reported an 84.0% yoy decline to `6.8cr, against our estimate of a ~47% decline. This was on primarily on account of poor performance on the revenue and margin front. Outlook and valuation: We are revising our estimates downwards for FY2012 to factor in the poor quarterly performance. However, land monetization and improvement in working capital for FY2013 will ease debt requirement for FY2013 leading to savings on interest cost. The stock price of IVRCL has seen tremendous rally in last 3 months and captured near term positives (strong order inflow and easing on debt front) to some extent. Further, management is not confident of clocking 15-20% revenue growth for FY2013 given headwinds. Hence we recommend Accumulate on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg FDEPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoAE (%) RoACE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 11.2 26.1 38.5 24.2
3m 7.8
1yr (0.4)
76.2 (17.2)
FY2010 5,492 10.3 211.3 (6.5) 7.9 9.7 7.6 11.5 14.2 0.9 0.6 5.8
FY2011 5,651 2.9 157.9 (25.3) 5.9 9.1 10.2 8.2 11.6 0.8 0.6 6.9
FY2012E 5,057 (10.5) 54.0 (65.8) 2.0 8.2 29.8 2.7 7.3 0.8 0.8 10.0
FY2013E 5,758 13.9 129.0 138.9 4.8 9.2 12.5 6.2 8.9 0.8 0.7 8.0
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 1,203 1,108 94.8 7.9 66.1 22.9 1.0 6.9 0.1 6.8 0.6 6.8 0.6 0.3
3QFY11 1,417 1,277 140.2 9.9 59.2 19.7 1.1 62.5 20.2 42.3 3.0 42.3 3.0 1.6
% chg (yoy) (15.1) (13.2) (32.4) (200)bp 11.6 16.3 (12.2) (89.0) (99.7) (84.0) (84.0) (240)bp (84.0)
2QFY12 1,046 952 93.8 9.0 65.2 25.0 5.3 8.9 0.7 8.1 0.8 8.1 0.8 0.3
% chg (qoq) 15.0 16.3 1.1 (110)bp 1.3 (8.4) (81.5) (22.8) (91.2) (16.6) (16.6) (20)bp (16.6)
9MFY12 3,373 3,099 274.1 8.1 194.1 70.6 11.2 20.6 1.5 19.1 0.6 19.1 0.6 0.7
9MFY11 3,599 3,263 336.5 9.3 152.5 54.0 7.6 137.6 44.0 93.7 2.6 93.7 2.6 3.5
% chg (6.3) (5.0) (18.5) (120)bp 27.3 30.6 46.3 (85.0) (96.7) (79.6) (79.6) (200)bp (79.6)
On the recently won road project, Raipur Bilaspur the company expects average daily toll collection of `40lakhs/day. Further, the management is hopeful of achieving project IRR of 13-14% and equity IRR of 17%.
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Subdued topline and lower EBITDAM leads to poor show on earnings front
On the EBITDA margin front, the company posted dismal margin of 7.9%, a dip of 200bp yoy against and below our estimate of 9.2% as fixed overheads were not absorbed fully due to low turnover. Interest cost came in at `66.1cr, an increase of 11.6% yoy/1.3% qoq, lower than our expectations. On earnings front, IVRCL reported an 84.0% yoy decline to `6.8cr, against our estimate of a ~47% decline. This was on primarily on account of poor performance on the revenue and margin front.
37.8
(6.5)
(1.7) (8.2)
4.2
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
FY2013E Variation (%) (9.7) (15.7) (60)bp (2.8) (46.5) (46.5) Earlier Estimates 6,457.9 593.0 9.2 396.7 123.5 4.6 Revised Estimates 5,757.9 528.8 9.2 344.6 129.0 4.8 Variation (%) (10.8) (10.8) (13.1) 4.4 4.4
We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The companys core construction business has been valued at P/E of 8x FY2013E EPS of `4.8 (`38.6/share), whereas its stake in subsidiaries IVR Prime (`21.3/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (`4.5/share) has been valued on mcap basis, post assigning a 20% holding company discount. The stock price of IVRCL has seen tremendous rally in last 3 months and captured near term positives (strong order inflow and easing on debt front) to some extent. Further, management is not confident of clocking 1520% revenue growth for FY2013 given headwinds. Hence we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a revised SOTP target price of `64 (`56).
Remarks 8x FY2013E earnings 20% holding company discount 20% holding company discount
FY2009 FY2010 6,421 4,980 13,682 2.7 8,696 5,492 16,887 3.1
2.0 4.8
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P/E
7YEAR AVG
5YEAR AVG
3YEAR AVG
P/B
5YEAR AVG
3YEAR AVG
7YEAR AVG
14-Feb-12
24.5 13.6 27.9 22.3 0.9 7.6 17.4 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.6 6.4
Buy 13,832 13,763 16,017 Accu. 43,905 53,779 60,258 Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Accu. Buy 1,816 5,074 3,476 2,209 4,889 1,952 4,946 3,573 2,602 5,961 2,503 5,790 3,609 2,585 6,732
1,449 1,608
17.2 54.3
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Du Pont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.6 2.5 6.9 0.7 3.1 1.9 0.8 2.7 2.2 1.0 3.8 1.7 1.3 6.2 1.0 1.2 4.9 1.2 10.8 14 81 99 146 9.2 15 80 94 146 7.8 15 118 142 143 6.8 17 141 180 152 5.2 21 159 193 209 5.4 21 142 173 205 14.4 15.8 14.4 12.7 13.3 13.2 14.2 14.8 11.5 11.6 12.1 8.2 7.3 7.5 2.7 8.9 9.2 6.2 9.0 73.8 1.8 11.6 4.3 0.4 14.6 7.5 82.5 1.8 11.0 13.3 0.6 9.5 8.7 64.3 1.7 9.5 9.1 0.7 9.9 7.8 67.9 1.6 8.2 9.6 0.9 7.0 6.4 67.6 1.2 5.1 9.5 1.1 0.2 7.4 67.6 1.2 6.2 8.5 1.2 3.3 15.5 7.9 9.1 1.4 60.1 16.7 8.5 10.2 1.4 67.8 7.8 7.9 9.9 1.5 69.4 5.9 5.9 8.8 1.6 74.4 2.0 2.0 5.6 1.7 75.7 4.8 4.8 8.6 1.8 79.9 7.7 6.6 1.0 2.3 0.7 6.9 0.9 7.1 5.9 0.9 2.3 0.6 6.9 0.9 7.6 6.1 0.9 2.5 0.6 5.8 0.9 10.2 6.9 0.8 2.7 0.6 6.9 0.9 29.8 10.8 0.8 2.8 0.8 10.0 0.9 12.5 7.0 0.8 3.0 0.7 8.0 0.9 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
IVRCL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12