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THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Appeal of the Red Earth
For more than two years, house hunters keen on getting a home in Tanah Merah, which means Red Earth, can only look to the secondary market. Optima @ Tanah Merah was the last project to hit the primary market in that area in eastern Singapore. The 297-unit condominium was launched in July 2009 and was fully sold in less than two months at a median price of $830 psf. Last week, a state land next to the decades-old Bedok Court, a short distance away from Optima, was successfully auctioned with seven bids. The top bid of $534.2 psf ppr came from a joint venture between Far East Organization, Frasers Centrepoint and Sekisui House, and it was just a whisker above the next highest offer of $526.3 psf ppr. Based on an estimated breakeven of $920 psf, the developer could be eyeing an average selling price of at least $1,100 psf, possibly reaping more than $90m in profits over an estimated four-year project completion period. The expected selling price of $1,100 psf is supported by transactions in the vicinity. Last December, a handful of units at Casa Merah changed hands at an average price of $1,054 psf. In the same month, a unit at Optima @ Tanah Merah sold for $1,072 psf. Although the developer is likely to gun for at least $1,100 psf, we do not expect sales to be brisk, as evidenced by the recent launches (exceptions are Watertown and The Hillier, two well-located mixed-use projects). In our view, the project may attract a 30-50% take-up rate in the first few months, before slipping into an extended period of slow sales. Separately, rental for new units in the Tanah Merah area stood at about $3.5 psf pm as at the end of last quarter, according to our estimates. This works out to a healthy gross yield of 3.8%, another reason why we think the selling price of at least $1,100 psf is not at all optimistic.
Recently sold GLS site in Tanah Merah
Casa Merah TOP 2009 Latest caveat $1,086 psf Dec 2011 Optima TOP 2012/13 Latest caveat $1,072 psf Dec 2011
16 February 2012
East Meadows TOP 2002 Latest caveat $863 psf Jan 2012
The Tanamera TOP 1994 Latest caveat $791 psf Oct 2011
Bedok Court TOP 1985 Latest caveat $655 psf Jan 2012 Note: All projects are 99-year leasehold. Source: URA, Maybank KE
Tanah Merah
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 01-Jan-09 09-Aug-09 17-Mar-10 23-Oct-10 31-May-11 06-Jan-12 Optima (TOP '12) Casa Merah (TOP '09) East Meadows (TOP '01) The Tanamera (TOP '94) Bedok Court (TOP '85)
There are five projects within the vicinity of the GLS site sold. Units at Optima and Casa Merah are currently asking for about $1,100 psf. Optima is still under construction and is expected to complete by year-end or early next year. Casa Merah was completed in 2009 and based on the latest rental data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the median rental for units there was $3.42 psf pm in 4Q11, or a gross yield of 3.7%. More affordable alternatives are available. Prices are hovering around $900 psf for units at East Meadows and about $810 psf on average for those at The Tanamera. Rental data indicated that East Meadows units are fetching a median rental of $3.22 psf pm, translating to a gross yield of 4.3%. In the meantime, there has been speculation that Bedok Court will be put up for en bloc sale soon. The project is 27 years old and recent transactions indicated an average selling price of $680 psf. Median rental stood at $1.97 psf pm, or a gross yield of 3.5%.
4Q11 rental data for District 16 Rental $psf pm Project Aquarius By The Park Bayshore Park The Bayshore Bedok Court Casa Merah Changi Court Changi Green The Clearwater Costa Del Sol East Meadows The Summit Sunhaven
Source: URA, Maybank KE
Total units 720 1,083 1,038 280 556 297 256 420 906 482 242 295
th 25 percentile 2.95 3.11 3.03 1.86 3.26 2.79 2.63 2.90 3.35 2.98 2.90 2.68
Median 3.15 3.50 3.21 1.97 3.42 2.89 2.70 3.19 3.70 3.22 3.10 2.76
75th percentile 3.50 3.74 3.44 2.05 3.55 2.99 2.84 3.81 3.97 3.45 3.39 3.02
16 February 2012
Page 2 of 7
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project Bedok Court East Meadows Bedok Court Bedok Court East Meadows Casa Merah Casa Merah Casa Merah East Meadows Optima @ Tanah Merah Casa Merah East Meadows Casa Merah Optima @ Tanah Merah Casa Merah East Meadows Casa Merah Optima @ Tanah Merah Casa Merah East Meadows Bedok Court East Meadows Casa Merah East Meadows Bedok Court Optima @ Tanah Merah Optima @ Tanah Merah Bedok Court Optima @ Tanah Merah The Tanamera Casa Merah The Tanamera Casa Merah Optima @ Tanah Merah
Source: URA
16 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Size (sq m) 224 113 161 210 116 142 116 114 128 78 114 124 146 80 117 111 88 88 98 111 169 111 88 113 211 116 45 213 142 141 114 123 86 80
Price ($psf) 655 863 681 717 881 1,086 1,065 1,109 946 1,072 1,050 809 961 1,054 1,044 942 1,140 1,013 1,090 957 596 912 1,087 954 630 1,041 1,410 675 1,099 791 1,116 846 1,021 1,034
Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)
Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.96 CityDev 10.87 Ho Bee 1.205 HPL 1.94 KepLand 3.06 SC Global 1.125 SingLand 6.01 UOL 4.67 Wheelock 1.64 Wing Tai 1.285 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.01 -26% 3.18 12.5 -13% 7.31 2.53 -52% 2.22 4.39 -56% 2.7 5.08 -40% 2.78 3.49 -68% 1.6 9.82 -39% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.79 -54% 2.49 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -7% 49% -46% -28% 10% -30% -44% -27% -30% -48%
16 February 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 48.3 93.6 21.2 26.8 43.5 96.7 63.9 52.9 16.7 85.8 83.3 73.0 4.2 81.8 23.4 34.7 92.4 51.0 90.2 49.3 77.4 80.7 85.2 96.7 77.6 12.4 48.5 76.5 90.6 81.5 72.6 59.6 40.8 50.7 81.9 90.0 73.3 36.9 79.6 61.4 28.7 37.9 78.9 92.5 81.7 Units sold (Jan) 14 2 9 2 11 4 3 3 13 8 5 5 3 2 33 8 6 4 3 37 11 7 5 3 770 73 21 14 13 12 12 9 9 8 6 3 387 172 10 2 198 83 7 7 4
Median
16 February 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
($psf) 1,451 1,420 3,331 1,558 1,596 1,904 1,333 1,259 1,327 1,325 1,130 1,050 1,245 745 1,117 1,483 1,731 1,644 1,153 897 986 721 866 814 District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Nov11 1,406 1,789 1,175 972 1,040 744 879 778 757 $psf Dec11 1,486 1,735 1,175 1030 1,049 795 923 813 836 MoM % Change 5.7 -3.0 0.0 6.0 0.9 6.9 5.0 4.5 10.4
City & Southwest (1-8) Farrer Park Suites 29 14 Ascentia Sky 373 349 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 49 D'Leedon 1715 460 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 54 Floridian 336 325 The Interweave 169 108 Thomson Grand 361 191 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Centra Residences 78 13 Euhabitat 748 642 Vacanza @ East 473 394 Central Imperial 63 46 Idyllic Suites 71 3 Eight Courtyards 654 535 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 135 The Seawind 222 77 Silversea 383 354 The Sound 104 53 Tivoli Grande 82 74 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 440 Seastrand 473 366 Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 463 Waterview 696 593 NV Residences 642 621 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Watertown 992 770 Riversound Residences 590 73 Cardiff Residences 163 79 Austville Residences 540 413 A Treasure Trove 882 799 Centro Residences 329 268 The Minton 1145 831 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 59 The Luxurie 622 254 Parc Vera 452 229 Terrasse 414 339 The Vue 50 45 West (22-24) Hillier 528 387 Rainforest (EC) 466 172 Blossom Residences 602 479 Pavillion Park (phase 2) 264 162 North (25-28) Parc Rosewood 689 198 The Nautical 435 165 Woodhaven 337 266 The Greenwich 319 295 The Miltonia Residences 410 335 Source: URA
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Nov11 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.6 $psf pm Dec11 4.7 4.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 MoM % Change -2.1 4.8 0.0 3.4 -3.0 0.0 3.2 -9.7 -3.8
Project Orchard Scotts Four Seasons Park The Suites at Central The Sail @ Marina Bay Rivergate 1,169 Source: URA 855 1,329 Bottom 5 Resale 693 Project 903 Toh Tuck Lodge 1,507 Nicon Gardens 873 Lakeside Tower 1,354 Hougang Green 1,067 Edelweiss Park 860 Source: URA 1,031 1,221 1,289 753 706 808 951 890 1,045 1,394 861
Transactions by $psf
Tenure Freehold Freehold 99 Yr (fm 1981) 99 Yr (fm 1975) 99 Yr (fm 1994) District 21 21 23 22 19 $psf 277 451 519 528 550
16 February 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
16 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 21 452 1,517 605 146 702 785 294 123 207 6,188 68 620 290 307 234 94 368 9 1,990 343 39 1,255 55 150 109 509 140 2,600 110 357 467 34 442 476 187 131 248 147 86 20 819 75 84 159
City Dev
Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22
CapitaLand
3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr 99yr
UOL
2 16
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 12 12 21
Wheelock
9 10
Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Freehold Freehold
16 February 2012
Page 5 of 7
16 February 2012
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 60 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,546 249 197 34 595 107 380 153 1 222 728 119 2,785 24 64 38 42 157 35 285 645 70 65 580 75 790 35 208 23 50 31 347 19,730
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
10 15 17 19
NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total
Source:HDB,URA
16 February 2012
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