Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 22, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Reena Walia Nair - Sr. Research Analyst reena.walia@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134 Pallavi Munankar - Research Associate pallavia.munankar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136 Technical Team Abhishek Chauhan Sr. Manager abhishek.chauhan@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6152

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 22, 2012

Overview
Asian stocks down on rising Greece debt worries. Chinas HSBC Flash PMI index increases to 49.7-level in February. Indias annual CPI index stands at 7.65 percent in January.
Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today as increasing concerns that Greece debt crisis will still persists despite the second bailout of 130 billion Euros led to rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos yesterday stated that Greece have to complete a swap of private holdings of its debt as part of a 130th billion Euro EU/IMF bailout package by around 10 March 2012. Indias annual consumer price index (CPI) stood at 7.65 percent in January which was higher than wholesale price index (WPI) of 6.55 percent during the same period. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7-level in February from previous mark of 48.8 in January.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Feb'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Feb12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tone G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 105.84 1757.10 2.5 1.9 5607.2 18428.6 12965.7 1362.2 16710.9 2024.2 9463.0 Prev. day 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2

as on Feb 21, 2012 WoW 3.5 3.2 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.1 -0.1 MoM 9.4 8.4 2.3 3.6 4.9 3.8 7.7 YoY 1.6 -0.1 5.9 1.4 -24.8 0.9 -12.8

5.1 2.4

7.0 5.6

22.8 26.6

3441.30 8451.25 104.06

3.7 2.3 0.1

3.3 0.8 0.0

7.8 0.9 1.2

6.5 -14.2 5.9

Source: Reuters

US Dollar Index
US Dollar (% change) The US Dollar Index (DX) weakened around 0.4 percent on Tuesday on account of Greece bailout agreement. However, sharp decline was cushioned as despite the bailout concerns over Greece still remains which led mixed sentiments in the global markets yesterday. The index touched an intra-day low of 78.90 and ended its trading session at the level of 79.14 on Tuesday.
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb12 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.14 49.21 49.35 49.35 Prev. day -0.4 -0.1 -0.03 -0.04 as on Feb 21, 2012 WoW -0.7 0.5 0.02 0.01 MoM -1.1 1.6 -2.86 -2.88 YoY 1.8 -8.7 9.09 9.03

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated slightly around 0.1 percent on Tuesday and touched an intra-day low of 49.32. However, sharp depreciation was not witnessed due to weakness in the US dollar and positive sentiments in the domestic markets yesterday. The Nifty and Sensex rose around 0.8 percent each on Tuesday. The currency ended its trading session at the level of 49.21 yesterday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 14461.60 crores till st 21 February 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital st inflows stood at Rs 24819.20 crores till 21 February. Outlook We expect the Indian Rupee to come under pressure today, on the back of poor sentiments in the global markets which will lead downside in domestic equities too. Additionally, a stronger dollar will also act as a negative factor for the currency. Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for Feb 22, 2012 Support 49.20/49.04 Resistance 49.50/49.75

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 22, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro ended on a flat note in yesterdays trading session as despite the approval of the rescue package as concerns with respect to Greece debt tensions still persists which led mixed sentiments in the global markets. The major concerns are that the austerity measures forced on Greece will deteriorate its already weak economy thus making it harder to repay its debts. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.3184 and closed at 1.3238 on Tuesday. European Consumer Confidence index stood at -20 in January as against previous mark of -21 in December. Outlook The Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias today, on the back of escalating worries with respect to Europes debt crisis coupled with dollar strength. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 65.0/64.80 65.50/65.70 valid for Feb 22, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3238 65.14 65.27 65.3 Prev. day 0.0 -0.1 0.66 0.67 WoW 0.9 -0.4 -0.23 -0.20

as on Feb 21, 2012 MoM 1.7 -0.1 -0.40 -0.35 YoY -3.2 -5.7 6.32 6.36

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Pound depreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from unfavorable economic data from the country. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.5770 and closed at 1.5784 on Tuesday. UK's Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 7.8 billion Pounds in January as against a previous rise of 10.8 billion Pounds in December. Outlook We expect the Pound to trade lower today, on account of concerns over global economy along with mixed sentiments in the markets. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for Feb 22, 2012 Support 77.75/77.55 Resistance 78.20/78.45 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5784 77.66 77.97 Prev. day -0.4 0.3 -0.25 WoW 0.7 -0.1 -0.05

Source: Telequote

as on Feb 21, 2012

MoM 1.1 0.5 -0.58

YoY -2.7 -6.6 6.36

77.97

-0.27

-0.06

-0.65

6.34

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 22, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated slightly by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session and touched an intra-day low of 79.84. However, sharp depreciation was resisted due to choppy sentiments in the global markets. The currency closed its trading session at the level of 79.69 on Tuesday. Japans All Industries Activity increased by 1.3 percent in December as against a decline of 1 percent a month ago. Outlook We expect the Yen to trade with an appreciation bias mainly on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which will boost demand for the low-yielding currency.

JPY (% change)
Last 79.69 0.6171 61.84 61.85 Prev day 0.1 -0.1 -0.93 -0.94

as on Feb 21, 2012 WoW 1.5 2.1 -2.64 -3.16 MoM 2.6 4.1 -5.94 -5.91 YoY -4.1 -14.2 13.84 13.86

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for Feb 22, 2012 Support 61.55/61.30 Resistance 62.0/62.20

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 22, 2012

Indicator MPC Member Bean Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI MPC Meeting Minutes Industrial New Orders m/m Belgium NBB Business Climate Existing Home Sales Country UK China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK Euro Euro US Time (IST) 1.00am 8:00am 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm 8:30pm Actual 49.7 Forecast 48.8 52.2 51.3 53.7 49.4 50.7 0-0-9 0.6% -7.9 4.66M Previous 48.8 48.5 52.3 51.0 53.7 48.8 50.4 0-0-9 -1.2% -9.5 4.61M Impact Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High

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