BITN 916_14,15 (middleeast)

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To some degree the Arab Spring did overshadow the Palestinian issue. But on the other hand, I think that the possibility to some, the threat that the Arab Spring would arrive in Palestinian society also affected some moves, such as Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbass greater The Israeli assertiveness mass social towards the US protest regarding the Palestinian UN bid movement for statehood last was clearly September. I think inspired by the that should the Arab Spring. Palestinian masses go out into the streets against the Palestinian Authority (PA), the PA would collapse like a house of cards. Mahmoud Abbas must keep that from happening, so he is more militant towards Israel. But so far, there are no signs of the Arab Spring really arriving in Palestinian society. As for its bearing on Israel, which,

in Mubarak, lost its closest Arab ally in the uprisings, Keller is equally forthright. There was a surprisingly positive attitude in Israel to events in Egypt some Egyptians were surprised at finding out how much Israelis followed events and how much they cared. The Israeli mass social protest movement last summer was clearly inspired by the Arab Spring, and some slogans and banners in the Tel Aviv demonstrations stated it explicitly, like This is our Tahrir Square or With wages low and prices sky high, we will fight like the Egyptians. But attitudes changed drastically since the Islamist victories in the Egyptian parliamentary elections. It is now commonplace in Israel to repeat that nasty clich about the Arab Spring turning into Islamist Winter. We on the left try to point out the positive side of free democratic elections, even if you dont like the results. And who are we to complain, anyway, with the bunch of nationalists and racists dominating our own parliament freely and democratically elected? I dont think we are soon going to hear again social protesters in Tel Aviv explicitly emulating Tahrir Square. A pity. Israelis regard the Islamist movements as a threat not without reason, though this is very much manipulated and blown up. Hamas, the largest Palestinian militant Islamist organisation, which governs the territory of Gaza the other Palestinian region of the West Bank is governed by the PA, in which the rival Fatah party dominates has also been the subject of much political intrigue. The 1987established group, which is designated a terrorist organisation by Israel, the US and the EU, has also been buffeted by the winds of change sweeping the region following the popular Arab revolts and the success of Islamist parties in elections, with the Gazan leadership in the Syrian capital Damascus mooting the idea of a strategic switch from armed struggle towards the path of popular non-violent resistance, contrary to the hardline leadership in Gaza itself.

On Hamas the Arab Spring had very drastic strategic results for them, explains Keller. There has always been tension between the outside leadership, which is based in Damascus, and the internal one based in Gaza. Until the Arab Spring, Syria was giving Hamas a lot of support and

I dont see any great leadership around. Mekelberg

Iran was giving a lot of money, while they had rather tense relations with former Egyptian president Mubarak, who collaborated with Israel in the 2008-09 siege of Gaza. Now nobody knows what could happen in Syria Hamas could leave Damascus and Iran has cut them off because they dont support Syrian president Bashar Assad. So the bottom line is a clear shift in the internal balance of forces in Hamas. As for the prospects of finding real and lasting peace between the state of Israel and the Palestinians in this atmosphere of change, Mekelberg, who contends that Israel doesnt understand the urgency of addressing the conflict in a Middle East which in two to five years could change completely, believes that grounds for optimism are in short supply. On what would I base my optimism? Is it the leadership in Israel, the leadership in Palestine? Can civil society try to make the necessary changes? Some of them do their best but they are not strong enough. US President Obama hasnt followed up on his good intentions, and when was the last time that the European Union came up with a common foreign and security policy on the matter? So, looking at all this evidence and when especially in times of slack you would expect great leaders to make a breakthrough I dont see any great leadership around to be optimistic right now.

Palestinian children in Rafah during a rally earlier this month calling on Egyptian authorities to end the fuel shortage caused by the crisis in Egypt and closing of smuggling tunnels. Photo: Sameh Rahmi /Demotix/Press Association

27 FEB - 4 MAR 2012 THE BIG ISSUE IN THE NORTH

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