!"#$%&'()*(+*#,-&(,%&+./&0()+.

1-&/,/)23&4$%2/+& 1
& 2
A.E. Besslei S
Bept. of Atmospheiic Sciences 4
Texas A&N 0niveisity S
College Station, TX 6
7
Abstiact: The question of whethei clouus aie the cause of suiface tempeiatuie 8
changes, iathei than acting as a feeuback in iesponse to those tempeiatuie changes, 9
is exploieu using uata obtaineu between 2uuu anu 2u1u. An eneigy buuget 1u
calculation shows that the eneigy tiappeu by clouus accounts foi little of the 11
obseiveu climate vaiiations. Anu obseivations of the laggeu iesponse of top-of- 12
atmospheie (T0A) eneigy fluxes to suiface tempeiatuie vaiiations aie not eviuence 1S
that clouus aie causing climate change. 14
1S
5,+)#%$6+*#,&& 16
The usual way to think about clouus in the climate system is that they aie a feeuback 17
as the climate waims, clouus change in iesponse anu eithei amplify (positive 18
clouu feeuback) oi amelioiate (negative clouu feeuback) the initial change |e.g., 19
Stephens, 2uuSj. In iecent papeis, Linuzen anu Choi |2u11, heieaftei LC11j anu 2u
Spencei anu Biaswell |2u11, heieaftei SB11j have aigueu that ieality is ieveiseu: 21
clouus aie the cause of, anu not a feeuback on, changes in suiface tempeiatuie. If 22
this claim is coiiect, then significant ievisions to climate science may be iequiieu. 2S
24
0,/)23&4$%2/+&6("6$"(+*#,& 2S
LC11 (theii Eq. 8) anu SB11 (theii Eq. 1) both wiite the Eaith's eneigy buuget as: 26
27
!
C
dT
s
dt
= "R
cloud
+ "F
ocean
# $"T
s
(1) 28
29
C is the heat capacity of the ocean's mixeu layei, !Ts is the suiface tempeiatuie, anu Su
!F
ocean
is the heating of the climate system by the ocean. The teim -"!T
s
iepiesents S1
the enhanceu emission of eneigy to space as the planet waims. " is the climate S2
sensitivity anu it contains the Planck iesponse as well as the climate feeubacks. SS
!R
cloud
is the change in T0A flux uue to clouus. Note that !R
cloud
is not a feeuback in S4
this foimulation it is a foicing anu is inuepenuent of suiface tempeiatuie (the SS
clouu feeuback is in the -"!Ts teim). All quantities aie global monthly aveiage S6
anomalies (anomalies aie calculateu by subtiacting the mean annual cycle.). 0thei S7
teims, such as the change in iauiative foicing by gieenhouse gases, aie small ovei S8
the peiiou examineu, so they aie ignoieu. S9
4u
The foimulation of Eq. 1 is potentially pioblematic because the climate system is 41
uefineu to incluue the ocean, yet one of the heating teims is flow of eneigy tofiom 42
the ocean (!F
ocean
). This leaus to the contiauictoiy situation wheie heating of theii 4S
climate system by the ocean (!F
ocean
> u) causes an inciease of eneigy in the ocean 44
(C(uTsut) > u), appaiently violating eneigy conseivation. While it may be possible 4S
to uefine the teims so that Eq. 1 conseives eneigy, LC11 anu SB11 uo not pioviue 46
enough infoimation to show that they have actually uone so. Bowevei, to 47
compiehensively evaluate the aiguments of LC11 anu SB11, I simply note this 48
potential pioblem anu assume in the iest of the papei that Eq. 1 is coiiect. 49
Su
In theii analyses, LC11 anu SB11 test Eq. 1 by cieating synthetic uata foi !F
ocean
anu S1
!R
cloud
, anu this iequiies an assumption about the ielative magnituues of these S2
teims. LC11 choose the iatios of the stanuaiu ueviations of the time seiies SS
#(!F
ocean
)#(!R
cloud
) - 2 while SB11 choose, foi theii most iealistic case, S4
#(!F
ocean
)#(!R
cloud
) - u.S (the time seiies aie anomalies, so theii means aie zeio SS
by uefinition; thus, the stanuaiu ueviation is a measuie of the magnituue of the S6
teims). S7
S8
Bowevei, it is possible to use uata to estimate the magnituue of S9
#(!F
ocean
)#(!R
cloud
). I will focus on the peiiou fiom Naich 2uuu to Febiuaiy 2u1u, 6u
uuiing which goou uata exist anu the piimaiy climate vaiiations weie causeu by 61
ENS0. This is the same peiiou evaluateu by SB11, anu LC11's analysis also incluueu 62
this peiiou. 6S
64
To evaluate the magnituue of the fiist teim, C(uTsut), I assume a heat capacity C of 6S
168 W-monthm
2
K, the same value useu by LC11 (as uiscusseu below, SB11's heat 66
capacity is too small). The time ueiivative is estimateu by subtiacting each month's 67
global aveiage ocean suiface tempeiatuie fiom the pievious month's value. 68
Tempeiatuies useu in this calculation come fiom NASA's Nouein Eia Retiospective- 69
analysis foi Reseaich anu Application (NERRA) |Rieneckei et al., 2u11j. The 7u
stanuaiu ueviation of the monthly anomaly time seiies, #(C(uTsut)), is 9 Wm
2
. 71
72
This can be confiimeu by looking at the Aigo ocean heat content uata coveiing 7S
2uuS-2uu8. 0sing uata iepoiteu in Bouglass anu Knox |2uu9j, the month-to-month 74
change in monthly inteiannual heat content anomalies can be calculateu (# = 7S
1.2x1u
22
}month). Assuming the ocean coveis 7u% of the planet, this coiiesponus 76
to 1S Wm
2
, in agieement with the pievious estimate. 77
78
In Besslei |2u1uj (heieaftei B1u), the eneigy tiappeu by clouus each month ovei 79
this peiiou was computeu (LC11 calculateu similai values). If all of this eneigy is 8u
assumeu to be a climate foicing i.e., unielateu to suiface tempeiatuie changes 81
then I can use these values foi !R
cloud
. This yielus #(!R
cloud
) = u.S Wm
2
. 82
Calculations foi potential watei vapoi foicing aie of a similai magnituue. 8S
84
To calculate "!T
s
, I assume that " is between 1 anu 6 Wm
2
K. ulobal anu monthly 8S
aveiageu !T
s
aie fiom the NERRA ieanalysis. I calculate that #("!T
s
) < u.4 Wm
2
. 86
87
!F
ocean
can be calculateu as a iesiuual using Eq. 1 anu the teims calculateu above. 88
The iesult is that !F
ocean
- C(uTsut), anu that #(!F
ocean
) - #(C(uTsut)). Bespite 89
potential pioblems in Eq. 1, the conclusion heie is iobust: eneigy tiappeu by clouus 9u
can explain only a few peicent of the suiface tempeiatuie changes. This is 91
consistent with pievious woik showing that heating of the suiface anu atmospheie 92
uuiing ENS0 comes fiom ocean heat tianspoit |e.g., Tienbeith et al., 2uu2; 9S
Tienbeith et al., 2u1uj anu it means that clouus weie not causing significant climate 94
change ovei this peiiou. 9S
96
A ielateu point maue by both LC11 anu SB11 is that iegiessions of T0A flux oi its 97
components vs. !T
s
will not yielu an accuiate estimate of the climate sensitivity " oi 98
the clouu feeuback. This conclusion, howevei, ielies on theii paiticulai values foi 99
#(!F
ocean
) anu #(!R
cloud
). 0sing a moie iealistic value of #(!F
ocean
)#(!R
cloud
) = 2u, 1uu
iegiession of T0A flux vs. !T
s
yielus a slope that is within u.4% of ", a iesult 1u1
confiimeu in Fig. 2b of Spencei anu Biaswell |2uu8j. This also applies to the 1u2
inuiviuual components of the T0A flux, meaning that iegiession of !R
cloud
vs. !Ts 1uS
yielus an accuiate estimate of the magnituue of the clouu feeuback, theieby 1u4
confiiming the iesults of B1u. & 1uS
1u6
As a siue note, SB11 estimateu theii heat capacity by iegiessing !R
cloud
vs. uTsut 1u7
anu assuming that C is the slope. This is only coiiect, howevei, if !F
ocean
= u. Foi the 1u8
iealistic case wheie #(!F
ocean
) >> #(!R
cloud
), the slope is much less than C, which 1u9
explains why SB11's heat capacity is too small. 11u
111
!#78()*-#,&9*+.&7#%/"-:&;!<<& 112
LC11 base theii conclusion that clouus aie a foicing iathei a feeuback on a plot like 11S
the one in Fig. 1 (see theii Fig. 9). The figuie shows the slope of the coiielation 114
between !R
cloud
anu !T
s
as a function of lag foi the obseivations in B1u. 11S
116
The obseivations show that laigei negative slopes exist when the clouu time seiies 117
leaus the suiface tempeiatuie, with mostly positive slopes when the tempeiatuies 118
leaus the clouu time seiies. Baseu on this coiielation, LC11 concluue that clouus 119
must be initiating the climate vaiiations. 12u
121
I've also plotteu the iesults fiom nine mouels fiom the Atmospheiic Nouel 122
Inteicompaiison Pioject (ANIP) (CNRN CNS, INNCN S.u, IPSL CN4, NIR0C S.2 12S
NEBRES, NIR0C S.2 BIRES, NPI ECBAN S, NRI CuCN 2.S.2a, NCAR CCSN, 0KN0 124
BABuEN1). While some uisagieements between the obseivations anu mouels exist, 12S
the mouels cleaily simulate the key aspect of the uata iuentifieu by LC11: laigei 126
negative slopes when !R
cloud
leaus !T
s
. 127
128
This is an impoitant iesult because the sea suiface tempeiatuies (SST) aie specifieu 129
in ANIP mouels. This means the inteiaction in these mouels is one-way: clouus 1Su
iesponu to SST changes, but SST uoes not iesponu to clouu changes. In othei woius, 1S1
iealistic !Rclouu vaiiations aie geneiateu in these mouels by specifying !Ts 1S2
vaiiations. The suggests that the obseiveu leau-lag ielation is a iesult of vaiiations 1SS
in atmospheiic ciiculation uiiven by !Ts vaiiations anu is not eviuence that clouus 1S4
aie initiating climate vaiiations. This conclusion also agiees with the eneigy buuget 1SS
piesenteu eailiei that concluueu that clouus aie not tiapping enough eneigy to 1S6
explain the !Ts vaiiations. 1S7
1S8
Calculations using fully coupleu mouels yielu similai leau-lag ielations as the ANIP 1S9
mouels. This means that closing the loop to allow clouus to affect SST uoes not 14u
change these conclusions. 141
142
!#78()*-#,&9*+.&7#%/"-:&=><<& 14S
SB11's analysis is built on a plot like LC11's, but using T0A net flux insteau of 144
!R
cloud
. Figuie 2 shows my ieconstiuction of SB11's Fig. S. Each line shows, foi a 14S
single uata set, the slope of the ielation between T0A net flux anu !T
s
as a function 146
of lag between them. The coloieu lines aie obseivations: the blue line shows the 147
uata useu by SB11 (CERES fluxes anu BauCR0TS tempeiatuie |Biohan et al., 2uu6j); 148
the ieu lines use the same flux uata, but uiffeient suiface tempeiatuie uata sets 149
(NERRA, ERA-Inteiim, uISTENP |Bansen et al., 2u1uj). The shaueu iegions show 1Su
the 2# unceitainties of the obseivations using uISTENP anu BauCR0TS. As uone by 1S1
SB11, all uata have been 1-2-1 filteieu. 1S2
1SS
The black lines aie fiom pie-inuustiial contiol iuns of 1S fully coupleu climate 1S4
mouels (CCCNA CuCN S.1, CNRN CNS, uFBL CN 2.u, uFBL CN 2.1, uISS ER, Fu0ALS 1SS
1.uu, INNCN S.u, IPSL CN4, NIR0C S.2 BIRES, NIR0C S.2 NEBRES, NPI ECBANS, 1S6
NRI CuCN 2.S.2A, NCAR CCSN S.u) fiom the CNIPS uatabase |Neehl et al., 2uu7j 1S7
(SB11 useu ue-tienueu 2u
th
centuiy iuns; uiffeiences with my calculations appeai 1S8
minoi). The mouels with the ciosses '+' aie S of the 6 mouels analyzeu by SB11. 1S9
16u
Theie aie thiee notable points to be maue. Fiist, SB11 analyzeu 14 mouels, but they 161
plotteu only six mouels anu the paiticulai obseivational uata set that pioviueu 162
maximum suppoit foi theii hypothesis. Plotting all of the mouels anu all of the uata 16S
pioviue a much uiffeient conclusion. Seconu, some of the mouels (not plotteu by 164
SB11) agiee with the obseivations, which means that the obseivations aie not 16S
funuamentally inconsistent with mainstieam climate mouels containing positive net 166
feeubacks. Thiiu, the mouels that uo a goou job simulating the obseivations (uFBL 167
CN 2.1, NPI ECBANS, anu NRI CuCN 2.S.2A) aie among those that have been 168
iuentifieu as iealistically iepiouucing ENS0 |Lin, 2uu7j. Anu since most of the 169
climate vaiiations ovei this peiiou weie uue to ENS0, this suggests that the ability 17u
to iepiouuce ENS0 is what's being testeu heie, not anything uiiectly ielateu to 171
equilibiium climate sensitivity. 172
17S
0?=@&6#$8"*,2&*,&+./&7#%/"& 174
This leaus us to a funuamental pioblem in theii analysis of Eq. 1: LC11 anu SB11 17S
mouel !F
ocean
as ianuom time seiies, but this is incoiiect. !F
ocean
is actually a 176
function of !Ts, with the coupling occuiiing via the ENS0 uynamics: !Ts contiols the 177
atmospheiic ciiculation, which uiives ocean ciiculation, which ueteimines !F
ocean
, 178
which contiols !Ts. 179
18u
Putting eveiything togethei, the evolution of !Ts uuiing ENS0 is uue piimaiily to 181
heat tianspoit by the ocean. As the ANIP mouels show, these changes in !Ts also 182
change clouus, but the impact of these clouu changes on !Ts is small. Thus, the leau- 18S
lag ielation between T0A flux anu !Ts tells us nothing about the physics uiiving !Ts. 184
18S
!"#$%&'("#' 186
These calculations show that clouus uiu not cause significant climate change ovei 187
the last uecaue (ovei the uecaues oi centuiies ielevant foi long-teim climate 188
change, on the othei hanu, clouus can inueeu cause significant waiming). Rathei, 189
the evolution of the suiface anu atmospheie uuiing ENS0 vaiiations aie uominateu 19u
by oceanic heat tianspoit. This means in tuin that iegiessions of T0A fluxes vs. !T
s
191
can be useu to accuiately estimate climate sensitivity oi the magnituue of climate 192
feeubacks. In auuition, obseivations piesenteu by LC11 anu SB11 aie not in 19S
funuamental uisagieement with mainstieam climate mouels, noi uo they pioviue 194
eviuence that clouus aie causing climate change. Suggestions that significant 19S
ievisions to mainstieam climate science aie iequiieu aie theiefoie not suppoiteu. 196
197
Acknowleugments: This woik was suppoiteu by NSF giant AuS-1u1266S to Texas 198
A&N 0niveisity. I thank A. Evan, }. Fasullo, B. Nuiphy, K. Tienbeith, N. Zelinka, anu 199
A.}. Besslei foi useful comments. 2uu
2u1
Biohan, P., }. Kenneuy, I. Baiiis, S. Tett, anu P. }ones (2uu6), 0nceitainty estimates in 2u2
iegional anu global obseiveu tempeiatuie changes: A new uataset fiom 18Su, }. 2uS
ueophys. Res., 111, B121u6, uoi: 1u.1u292uuS}Buu6S48. 2u4
Bee, B. P., et al. (2u11), The ERA-Inteiim ieanalysis: Configuiation anu peifoimance 2uS
of the uata assimilation system, Q. }. R. Neteoi. Soc., 1S7, uoi: 1u.1uu2qj.828, 2u6
SSS-S97. 2u7
Besslei, A. E. (2u1u), A ueteimination of the clouu feeuback fiom climate vaiiations 2u8
ovei the past uecaue, Science, SSu, uoi: 1u.1126science.1192S46, 1S2S-1S27. 2u9
Bouglass, B. B., anu R. S. Knox (2uu9), 0cean heat content anu Eaith's iauiation 21u
imbalance, Physics Letteis A, S7S, uoi: 1u.1u16j.physleta.2uu9.u7.u2S, S296- 211
SSuu. 212
Bansen, }., R. Rueuy, N. Sato, anu K. Lo (2u1u), ulobal suiface tempeiatuie change, 21S
Rev. ueophys., 48, Rg4uu4, uoi: 1u.1u292u1uiguuuS4S. 214
Lin, }. L. (2uu7), Inteiuecaual vaiiability of ENS0 in 21 IPCC AR4 coupleu uCNs, 21S
ueophys. Res. Lett., S4, L127u2, uoi: 1u.1u292uu6uLu289S7. 216
Linuzen, R. S., anu Y. S. Choi (2u11), 0n the obseivational ueteimination of climate 217
sensitivity anu its implications, Asia Pacific }. Atmos. Sci., 47, uoi: 218
1u.1uu7s1S14S-u11-uu2S-x, S77-S9u. 219
Neehl, u. A., C. Covey, T. Belwoith, N. Latif, B. NcAvaney, }. F. B. Nitchell, R. }. 22u
Stouffei, anu K. E. Tayloi (2uu7), The WCRP CNIPS multimouel uataset - A new 221
eia in climate change ieseaich, Bull. Am. Net. Soc., 88, 1S8S-1S94. 222
Rieneckei, N. N., et al. (2u11), NERRA - NASA's Nouein-Eia Retiospective Analysis 22S
foi Reseaich anu Applications, }. Climate, 24, uoi: 1u.117S}CLI-B-11-uuu1S.1, 224
S624-S648. 22S
Spencei, R. W., anu W. B. Biaswell (2uu8), Potential biases in feeuback uiagnosis 226
fiom obseivational uata: A simple mouel uemonstiation, }. Climate, 21, uoi: 227
1u.117S2uu8jcli22SS.1, S624-S628. 228
Spencei, R. W., anu W. B. Biaswell (2u11), 0n the misuiagnosis of suiface 229
tempeiatuie feeubacks fiom vaiiations in Eaith's iauiant eneigy balance, Remote 2Su
Sens., S, uoi: 1u.SS9uisSu816uS, 16uS-161S. 2S1
Stephens, u. L. (2uuS), Clouu feeubacks in the climate system: A ciitical ieview, }. 2S2
Climate, 18, 2S7-27S. 2SS
Tienbeith, K. E., }. N. Caion, B. P. Stepaniak, anu S. Woiley (2uu2), Evolution of El 2S4
Nino-Southein 0scillation anu global atmospheiic suiface tempeiatuies, }. 2SS
ueophys. Res., 1u7, 4u6S, uoi: 1u.1u292uuu}Buuu298. 2S6
Tienbeith, K. E., }. T. Fasullo, C. 0'Bell, anu T. Wong (2u1u), Relationships between 2S7
tiopical sea suiface tempeiatuie anu top-of-atmospheie iauiation, ueophys. Res. 2S8
Lett., S7, LuS7u2, uoi: 1u.1u292uu9glu42S14. 2S9
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0bseiving System expeiiment, Bulletin of the Ameiican Neteoiological 242
Association, 77, 8SS-868. 24S
244
24S
246
247
247
Figuie 1. The slope of the iegiession (Wm
2
K) of eneigy tiappeu by clouus !R
cloud
248
vs. surface temperature !T
s
, as a function of the lag between the time series in months. 249
Negative values of lag indicate that !R
cloud
leads !T
s
. The red lines are based on the 2Su
observations in D10, using CERES flux data |Wielicki et al., 1996j and either ERA- 2S1
Interim |Bee et al., 2u11j or MERRA reanalyses [Rienecker et al., 2011]. The red and 2S2
blue shading indicates the 2# uncertainty of the lines (purple shading is where the red and 2SS
blue shading overlaps). The thin black lines are AMIP climate model runs. 2S4
2SS
Figuie 2. Slope of the ielation between T0A net flux anu !T
s
, in W/m
2
/K as a function 2S6
of lag between the data sets (negative lags mean that the flux time series leads !T
s
). The 2S7
colored lines are from observations (covering 3/2000-2/2010 using the same TOA flux 2S8
data, but different time series for !T
s
); the shading represents the 2# uncertainty of two 2S9
of the data sets. The black lines are from 13 fully coupled pre-industrial control runs; 26u
lines with the crosses + are models used by SB11. Following SB11, all data are 1-2-1 261
filtered. See the text for more details about the plot. 262
26S
264
FIGURE 1
Figure 2