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So What?
.
November 2007 .
Droughts Worsen.
Deserts Spread.
Evaporation
The Culprit? . .
Catastrophe in Slow Motion
materializes slowly.
∆ +
2006 temperature
Up
36%
370
350
Acceleration
began.
330
310
300 ppm(ppm)
parts per million (maximum between ice ages)
290
Annual
Averages
270
1750 1790 1830 1870 1910 1950 1990
A brighter sun has a stronger magnetic field. It shields Earth from more cosmic
rays, so they create fewer ions to become cloud condensation nuclei. Less cloudy.
Less shade. Warming. This too amplifies solar cycle effects.
The reverse occurs when the sun dims. The Medieval Optimum stayed as
warm as the 1970s. Vikings colonized Greenland. Sand dunes spread across
Nebraska. During 3 Little Ice Ages (with few or no sunspots - a dimmer sun),
climates averaged 0.5°C colder than 1970’s climate. Greenland Viking colonies
died out in the first Little Ice Age. The Medieval Optimum averaged 0.5°C warmer
than a Little Ice Age, but today’s climate is another 0.7°C warmer still.
Human GHGs already warm Earth 5-6 times as much as solar maximum
effects. But solar cycles warm, then cool. Human warming is growing fast. In 25
years, human GHGs could warm Earth 10 times as much as solar maxima.
• Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface.
Barriers include blue sky (not black), clouds, haze & the ozone layer.
Clouds
• Clouds reflect some sunlight away, cooling Earth.
They also keep outbound heat in, warming Earth, esp. at night.
• Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it.
High clouds do the reverse.
• Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth.
On balance, clouds cool Earth.
• Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature.
So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds.
• GHGs stay in the air many years, sulfates usually for days.
g
in
heat island effects
0.6
m
ar
w
ll.
fa
Æ¡C
s
0.4
te
fa
l
Su
Mt.
Pinatubo
0.2 Sulfates r El
l a ise, big t
al Chichón
f major coo ime.
es ling
f at
Sul
0.0
bit. +
Sulfates rise g
in WW II
from 1951-80 Baseline -
some more. rm th
Temperature
Krakatoa Difference a
w rm more SO2, US SO2
Cooling G w
a ht
n so cooling cuts start
-0.2 GH nd nlig he JFK-LBJ
u u l w l
e bo m s ked s fa Expansion:
US
WW I: r fro as vel more SO2
m e Clean 5-year mean
cool
more SO2
u n- O4 l Air Act
up the stacks S
-0.4
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Great
Sulfates rise. Depression
Cooling
1880 40 offsets 61 89 77 116 162 118 2000
GHG
warming. Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice (Intergovernmental Panel
Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice on Climate Change, 2002)
Warming
Land warms more (faster) than oceans.
in winter,
at night,
& especially
toward the poles.
Earth Is Heating Up
• Earth now absorbs 440 million MW more than it emits:
our carbon emissions at work - the greenhouse effect.
This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960.
immense
440 million MW = 100 x global electric supply: big momentum!
time heating!
• Air at the land surface is 1.0°C warmer than 100 years ago.
The last two decades brought 0.17°C, then 0.35°C warming.
Another 0.6°C warming (so far) is “in the pipeline.” That is,
Earth will warm another 0.6°C, so it emits enough heat to balance
absorption.
• Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than 100 years ago.
With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic. Shells dissolve easier.
Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004, so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2.
From the mid-1990s to 2002-05, CO2 uptake in the N Atlantic fell by half.
Is That All?.
No Water ..
Desert belts expanded 70 miles toward the poles, 1979-2004.
The Amazon drought is the worst in decades, Australia’s the worst on record.
With more evaporation & irrigation, many water tables fall
3-20 feet/year.
Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai (China) vanished. 92% in Hebei (Beijing).
Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre dry up & vanish.
More rivers fail to reach the sea - Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling.
Turning Wheat into Cactus
moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or
moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use).
650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, Texas.
+4.2°C
+14% rain
2029 2059
Climate Model:
NASA
Goddard
Institute for
Space Studies
(GISS)
}
Dry 16%
Drought 5% Occurrence in Control Run
Extreme Drought 1%
50
40
30
Occurence (%)
20
10
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Fig. 2 in Rind et al., 1990 2x
CO2
“Once a century” drought can cover 45% of Earth’s land by 2059.
Over 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for “Drought” and 33%Projected
for “Dry”.Droughts by Year .
A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%.
Thanks for the crystal ball.
BUT
i l e re
m o
warming effect
10 fec ine
s
re n m
precipitation + warming
ef mb
25
-3.0
ua lio
sq mil t
<
co
Drought Compare 2002
20 to 1979.
Index
15
Extreme 11% of the time during 1951-80
Severity Area where rain is scarce
or increased by quite a bit:
10
3-4 million square miles. ,
sed
a
Severe
5
Drought
c re 87.
in 19
n e
a tio inc
Palmer p or ot s
with 0 a l
. Ev by a
%
-5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NOAA], "A Compare 30% actual severe drought area in
Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27%
Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide.
Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130
Droughts spread, as projected or faster.
Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979. Evaporation at work
Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.
OK,
So Warming Produces More Dry Areas.
10
- Palmer
Compare 2002
During 1950-1980, the precipitation effect to 1979.
Wet made 11.2% of areas very wet. Cooling combined effect: decrease 2-6%
(1957, ‘66, ‘77, ‘79) kicked that up to 11.5%. (1-3 million square miles)
5
Severity Index >
.
ed
Very rea
s
% n inc
o
or ati
0 ap
Drought Ev
-5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
from Fig. 9 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, 2004
ct
precipitation effect
fe
rainy areas grew by 0.7% (0.4 million sq
ef
warming effect
ed
precipitation + warming
ile re
25
miles), while rain-poor areas grew by
bin
-3.0
m o
s
re n m
m
co
6.4% (3.3 million sq miles). Compare 2002
ua lio
Drought
sq il
20
m
to 1979.
10
Index <
During 1951-80, 10.9%
Moreover, increased evaporation 15 of the area was rain-poor
Extreme carce
Baseline in is s it:
from warming dried out wet areas. Severity he r e r a
Area w d by quite a es.
b
or 10
s e il
increa m
It dried out dry areas even more. illi on squ
are
d,
3-4 m
ase .
5 re 87
Drought
Severe inc 19
n
With more evaporation, tio ce
ora t sin
with0 ap lo
Ev by a
8% of Earth’s land was very wet, % Palmer
.
-5
but 30% was very dry. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
RECAP
Severe drought has arrived, as projected or faster.
Rule of thumb:
• Warming above the norm cuts corn, rice & soybean yields by 10% / °C.
• 1°C warming cut corn & soybean yields 17% in 618 or more US counties.
• World grain production barely rose from 1992 to 2006 (mainly in 2004). Production
per capita peaked in 1985, at 343 kilograms per person. It has since fallen to 305.
• The Green Revolution is stagnating. Growing water scarcity is one factor.
• Insects, fungi and other pests are spreading northward. World Grain Production .
• Pests consume 40% of crops and rising - 50% in many tropical areas.
Major Crops: US, China & India Produce Half of World Total
Corn Rice
300 240
250 200
200 160
150 120
100 80
US US
Million Metric Tons China
50
China
Million
40 MetricIndia
Tons
India
0 0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Wheat Soybeans
120 90
100 75
80 60
60 45
40 US
30 China
US
China India
Million
20 Metric
IndiaTons Million
15
Metric Tons
0 0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1990 1994 1998Rice, Soy
Corn, Wheat, 2002 2006
- US, China, India
• Researchers studying impacts of climate change project world food production to rise
110% by 2080, up 0.9%/year. Production actually rose only 0.7%/year since 1990.
• All the increase will occur away from the tropics. In the tropics, food production will
fall. These researchers do not mention eroding soils, nor the problems of finding
water to irrigate crops as glaciers and snowpacks fade away, and as water tables fall.
• Satellites show that, since 1994, hot, dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs. A
world that was turning greener is now turning browner.
• Crop production (2 slides ago) & stocks (below) don’t show faster crop yield increases.
120
100
80
60
40
Days
20 of Consumption
Earth Policy Institute, 2006
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World Grain Stocks
With less food, feed fewer animals. Eat less meat.
60
45
30
15
-15
-30
-45
-60
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
Fig. 7 in Dai,
Trenberth & Qian,
Journal of -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0
Hydrometeorology,
Dec. 2004 More negative is drier. More positive is wetter.
The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. See Spain, Italy, Greece.
The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing.
Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. The USA has lucked out so far.
CO2 Emission Paths to •
90
80 Business as Usual
550 ppm CO2e
70 450 ppm CO2e
.
60
e/yr
2 CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes
50 warming from CO2 & other GHGs,
less the cooling effect of sulfates.
40
Total
30 Warming
Billion Tons CO
Global Emissions -
20 +3°C
-67%
Stern Review, -78%
10 +2°C
British Government,
October 2006
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
430 ppm CO2e = 380 CO2 + 310 other GHGs - 260 sulfate cooling.
CO2 Stabilization Paths
World CO2 Emissions International Energy
•
from Fossil Fuels Agency, 2007
8 Bingaman (S),
no price cap
+4°C
7
6
2
Emissions
McCain / Lieberman (S)
COBillion Tons /
5 +3°C
Gulf Stream +
West Antarctic Icecap
much of Florida, Long Island, Norfolk area, Cape Cod
Industry
17%
Coal for
Electricity .
33%
Home
Heat .
6%. Commercial 2005: USDOE - EIA
(US Department of Energy -
Buildings 3%
Energy Information Administration)
Oil Other
1.6% . Waste
.59%
Geothermal
.37%
Solar
.01%
Coal
49%
* Wind: 0.82% for 1st 6 months of 2007
US MWh by Source
Solutions - Electricity
• Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons.
• Coal: Use less. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process.
Store the liquid CO2 far underground. There’s room for over 100 years of output.
• Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day, but are getting expensive.
Store energy to follow loads in water uphill, batteries, flywheels, compressed air, hydrogen.
• Wind - Resource easily exceeds total use, esp. on US Plains & NC-MA coast.
Growing 30%/year, it’s now cheaper than coal in many places. 1.2% of US MW
• Solar - Resource dwarfs total use. Load shape matches cooling needs well.
Growing 30%/yr. PV costs 30¢/kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. Most is used overseas.
• Nuclear - new plants in China, India, US Southeast. Pump water uphill at night.
• Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth.
• Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, Italy. Make hydrogen at night.
Solutions - Personal Vehicles
US cars get 23 mpg. Pickups, vans & SUVs get 16.
Average 20.
Detroit is now nearly bankrupt.
Toyota has begun to outsell Ford (in the US) & GM (around the world). .
Hybrid sales are soaring. Up to 56 mpg
New cars average 44 mpg in Europe, 45 in Japan.
Don’t drive much over 55 mph. Combine errands. Keep tire psi up.
Walk. (Be healthy!) Park farther away. Carpool. Use bus, RR. Bicycle.