INDEX

Acknowledgement Bibliography Facts about global warming Timeline Early warning signs Causes Effects Initiatives Summits Conclusion

Acknowledgment Working on this project has been a learning experience. I am now more aware about the pressing problem of global warming. I would like to thank my professor for giving me this opportunity.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

http://www.climatehotmap.org

www.wikipedia.com

www.googleimages.com

FACTS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING Global warming is caused by green house gases, which trap in the suns infrared rays in the earths atmosphere, which in turn heat up the earths atmosphere. These green house effect warming is called as global warming. The effects of green house effect are visible more prominently in the recent years, with number of natural calamities on the rise in the whole world.

The global warming has happened in the past few years and is evident from the rise in mean temperature of the earths atmosphere. The main causes for the global warming are attributed to release of green house gases by human activities. The main gases contributing to green house effect are carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane and nitrous oxide. The largest producers of these gases are the thermal power plants, which burn the fossil fuels and produce these gases in large quantities. The second biggest sources of these green house gases are the road vehicles and industries.

The global warming has led to increase in mean earth surface temperature and thus melting of polar ice. There are frequent melt down of glaciers that result in floods and other natural calamities. The melting of ice at the poles had led the mean sea level. And further increase in temperature may further melt the ice and lead to further increase in mean sea level, which will engulf low lying countries.

The effect of global warming is very evident on the animal kingdom also. Some animals have become extinct due to loss of their natural habitat or their inability to evolve to the rapid changes in the climate. Also there is a change in their life style because of the changes in the seasons. The migrating birds have changed their time of travel and also their place of migration.

The effect of global warming can be felt on seasons too. There is shift in season cycle, as the summers are getting longer than the winters. This has affected the animals and made them to change their lifestyle accordingly, and those who failed to do so have perished or on the verge of extinction.

The global warming is also responsible for the introduction of some new diseases. The bacteria are more effective and multiply much faster in warmer temperatures compared to cold temperatures. The increase in temperature has led to increase in the microbes that cause diseases.

Global warming is also effecting the crop production, as the crops are getting destroyed by the sudden change in temperatures or sudden on set of rains. Also the flash floods and other natural calamities affect the crop.

As a matter of fact, because of global warming, the earths atmosphere is getting more unpredictable with heavy rains in the areas, which have scanty rainfall or drought in the areas, which received good annual rainfall. The months of rainfall has also getting affected.

But there are some people who believe that the global warming is a natural process and cannot disturb our ecosystem. The earths surface mean temperature was even higher a long time ago, and the ecosystem has evolved from that temperature to this. So it can evolve further. But the changes that are happening now are rather fast compared to earlier times.

TIMELINE
Here are gathered in chronological sequence the most important events in the history of climate change science. This list includes major influences external to the science itself. Following it is a list of other external influences. 1800-1870 Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million). Mean global temperature (1850-1870) is about 13.6C. First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth. 1824 Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. 1859 Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change. 1896 Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2. 1897 Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks. 1870-1910 Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth. 1914-1918 World War I; governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies. 1920-1925 Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy. 1930s Global warming trend since late 19th century reported. Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages. degrees 1938 Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question.

1939-1945 World War II. Grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields. 1945 US Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change. 1956 Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset. degrees Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere. Plass calculates that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance. 1957 Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies. Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans. 1958 Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water. 1960 Mitchell reports downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s Keeling accurately measures CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise. The level is 315 ppm. Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 13.9C. 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War. 1963 Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO2 level. 1965 Boulder, Colo. meeting on causes of climate change: Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts. 1966 Emiliani's analysis of deep-sea cores shows the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes. 1967 International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.

Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO2 would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees. 1968 Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically. 1969 Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole. degrees Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks. degrees Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements. degrees 1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. degrees Creation of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world's leading funder of climate research. degrees Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they counteract global warming and may bring serious cooling. degrees 1971 SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort. Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past. 1972 Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago. 1973 Oil embargo and price rise bring first "energy crisis". degrees 1974 Serious droughts since 1972 increase concern about climate, with cooling from aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; scientists are doubtful as journalists talk of a new ice age. 1975 Warnings about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer. Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO2.

1976 Studies show that CFCs (1975) and also methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect. degrees Deep-sea cores show a dominating influence from 100,000-year Milankovitch orbital changes, emphasizing the role of feedbacks. degrees Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate. degrees Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods . 1977 Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as the chief climate risk in next century. degrees 1978 Attempts to coordinate climate research in US end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding. degrees 1979 Second oil "energy crisis." Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth. degrees US National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO2 will bring 1.5-4.5C global warming. degrees World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research. degrees 1981 Election of Reagan brings backlash against environmental movement to power. Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about global warming. IBM Personal Computer introduced. Advanced economies are increasingly delinked from energy. Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate, raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming. Some scientists predict greenhouse warming "signal" should be visible by about the year 2000. 1982 Greenland ice cores reveal drastic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past. Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest year on record. 1983 Reports from US National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark conflict, as greenhouse warming becomes prominent in mainstream politics.

1985 Ramanathan and collaborators announce that global warming may come twice as fast as expected, from rise of methane and other trace greenhouse gases. Villach Conference declares consensus among experts that some global warming seems inevitable, calls on governments to consider international agreements to restrict emissions. Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature went up and down together through past ice ages, pointing to powerful biological and geochemical feedbacks. degrees Broecker speculates that a reorganization of North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change. 1987 Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases. degrees 1988 News media coverage of global warming leaps upward following record heat and droughts plus testimony by Hansen. degrees Toronto conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions; UK Prime Minister Thatcher is first major leader to call for action. degrees Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems give climate feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming. degrees Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established. degrees 1989 Fossil-fuel and other U.S. industries form Global Climate Coalition to tell politicians and the public that climate science is too uncertain to justify action. degrees 1990 First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. 1991 Mt. Pinatubo explodes; Hansen predicts cooling pattern, verifying (by 1995) computer models of aerosol effects. degrees Global warming skeptics claim that 20th-century temperature changes followed from solar influences. (The solar-climate correlation would fail in the following decade.) degrees Studies from 55 million years ago show possibility of eruption of methane from the seabed with enormous self-sustained warming. degrees 1992 Conference in Rio de Janeiro produces UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but US blocks calls for serious action. degrees Study of ancient climates reveals climate sensitivity in same range as predicted independently by computer models. degrees

1993 Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes (at least on a regional scale) can occur in the space of a single decade. degrees 1995 Second IPCC report detects "signature" of human-caused greenhouse effect warming, declares that serious warming is likely in the coming century. degrees Reports of the breaking up of Antarctic ice shelves and other signs of actual current warming in polar regions begin affecting public opinion. degrees 1997 Toyota introduces Prius in Japan, first mass-market electric hybrid car; swift progress in large wind turbines and other energy alternatives. International conference produces Kyoto Protocol, setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if enough nations sign onto a treaty. 1998 "Super El Nio" causes weather disasters and warmest year on record (approximately matched by 2005 and 2007). Borehole data confirm extraordinary warming trend. Qualms about arbitrariness in computer models diminish as teams model ice-age climate and dispense with special adjustments to reproduce current climate. degrees 1999 Criticism that satellite measurements show no warming are dismissed by National Academy Panel. Ramanathan detects massive "brown cloud" of aerosols from South Asia. degrees 2000 Global Climate Coalition dissolves as many corporations grapple with threat of warming, but oil lobby convinces US administration to deny problem. degrees A variety of studies emphasize variability and importance of biological feedbacks in carbon cycle, liable to accelerate warming. 2001 Third IPCC report states baldly that global warming, unprecedented since end of last ice age, is "very likely," with possible severe surprises. Effective end of debate among all but a few scientists. Bonn meeting, with participation of most countries but not US, develops mechanisms for working towards Kyoto targets. National Academy panel sees a "paradigm shift" in scientific recognition of the risk of abrupt climate change (decade-scale). Warming observed in ocean basins; match with computer models gives a clear signature of greenhouse effect warming.

2002 Studies find surprisingly strong "global dimming," due to pollution, has retarded arrival of greenhouse warming, but dimming is now decreasing. 2003 Numerous observations raise concern that collapse of ice sheets (West Antarctica, Greenland) can raise sea levels faster than most had believed. Deadly summer heat wave in Europe accelerates divergence between European and US public opinion. 2004 In controversy over temperature data covering past millenium, most conclude climate variations were not comparable to the post-1980 warming. First major books, movie and art work featuring global warming appear. 2005 Kyoto treaty goes into effect, signed by major industrial nations except US. Work to retard emissions accelerates in Japan, Western Europe, US regional governments and corporations. Hurricane Katrina and other major tropical storms spur debate over impact of global warming on storm intensity. 2007 Fourth IPCC report warns that serious effects of warming have become evident; cost of reducing emissions would be far less than the damage they will cause. Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover found to be shrinking faster than expected. 2009 Many experts warn that global warming is arriving at a faster and more dangerous pace than anticipated just a few years earlier. degrees Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 385 ppm. Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 14.5C, the warmest in hundreds, perhaps thousands of years.

Global warming early warning signs

This map illustrates the local consequences of global warming. Events indicated on the map are divided into two categories:

Fingerprints. Some of the events are direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures, as already documented and projected to continue by models of a changing climate. These "fingerprints" of climate change are indicated with yellow icons. Harbingers. The map also identifies events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming. These "harbingers" of climate change are indicated with red icons. For these events, evidence for a direct link to long-term climate change cannot be confirmed or ruled out at this time.

The Asian region spans polar, temperate, and tropical climates and is home to over 3 billion people. As the climate warms, many mountain glaciers may disappear, permafrost will thaw, and the northern forests are likely to shift further north. Rapid population growth and development in countries like China and India will put additional pressures on natural ecosystems and will lead to a rapid rise in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere unless steps are taken to curtail emissions.

Fingerprints

1. Llasa, Tibet -- Warmest June on record, 1998. Temperatures hovered above 77 F for 23 days. 2. Garhwal Himalayas, India -- Glacial retreat at record pace. The Dokriani Barnak Glacier retreated 66 ft (20.1 m) in 1998 despite a severe winter. The Gangorti Glacier is retreating 98 ft (30 m) per year. At this rate scientists predict the loss of all central and eastern Himalayan glaciers by 2035. 3. Tien Shan Mountains, China -- Glacial ice reduced by one quarter in the past 40 years.

4. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002. In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120F, resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record. This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1F (0.6C) per century. 5. Nepal - High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8F (1C), with high elevation sites warming the most. This is twice as fast as the 1F (0.6C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change. 6. Taiwan - Average temperature increase. The average temperature for the island has risen 1.8-2.5F (1-1.4C) in the last 100 years. The average temperature for 2000 was the warmest on record. 7. Afghanistan - 2001 - Warmest winter on record. Arid Central Asia, which includes Afghanistan, experienced a warming of 0.8-3.6F (1-2C) during the 20th century.

8. Tibet - Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the Dasuopu Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years. Meteorological records for the Tibetan Plateau show that annual temperatures increased 0.4F (0.16C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6F (0.32C) per decade from 1955 to 1996. 9. Mongolia - Warmest century of the past millennium. A 1,738-year tree-ring record from remote alpine forests in the Tarvagatay Mountains indicates that 20th century temperatures in this region are the warmest of the last millennium. Tree growth during 1980-1999 was the highest of any 20-year period on record, and 8 of the 10 highest growth years occurred since 1950. The 20th century warming has been observed in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature from widespread

regions of Eurasia, including sites in the Polar Urals, Yakutia, and the Taymir Peninsula, Russia. The average annual temperature in Mongolia has increased by about 1.3F (0.7C) over the past 50 years. 10. Chokoria Sundarbans, Bangladesh - Flooded mangroves. Rising ocean levels have flooded about 18,500 acres (7,500 hectares) of mangrove forest during the past three decades. Global sea-level rise is aggravated by substantial deltaic subsidence in the area with rates as high as 5.5 mm/year. 11. China - Rising waters and temperature. The average rate of sea-level rise was 0.09 +/- 0.04 inches (2.3 +/- 0.9 mm) per year over the last 30 years. Global sealevel rise was aggravated locally by subsidence of up to 2 inches (5 cm) per year for some regions due to earthquakes and groundwater withdrawal. Also, ocean temperatures off the China coast have risen in the last 100 years, especially since the 1960s. 12. Bhutan - Melting glaciers swelling lakes. As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is 100-130 feet (30-40 m) per year. Temperatures in the high Himalayas have risen 1.8F (1C) since the mid 1970s. 13. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating. Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter. 14. Mt. Everest - Retreating glacier.The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 3 miles (5 km) since 1953. The Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1.8F (1C) since the 1970s. 15. Kyrgyzstan - Disappearing glaciers. During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared. Temperatures in the mountains of Kyrgyztan have increased by 0.9-2.7 F (0.5-1.5C) since the 1950s. 16. Siberia - Melting permafrost. Large expanses of tundra permafrost are melting. In some regions the rate of thawing of the upper ground is nearly 8 inches (20 cm) per year. Thawing permafrost has already damaged 300 buildings in the cities of Norilsk and Yakutsk. In Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permanently frozen ground has warmed by 2.7 F (1.5C) during the past 30 years.

Harbingers
1. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997.

2.

Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.

3. Indian Ocean -- Coral reef bleaching (inclues Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia). 4. Persian Gulf -- Coral reef bleaching. 5. Korea -- Heavy rains and flooding. Severe flooding struck during July and August, 1998, with daily rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches (25.4 cm).

6. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres (809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres (101,172 hectares) of primary forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan orangutan. 7. Khabarovsk, Russia -- Wildfires threaten tiger habitat, 1998. Drought and high winds fueled fires that destroyed 3.7 million acres (1,497,337 hectares) of taiga and threatened two important nature reserves that are habitat for the only remaining Amur tigers.

8. Bangladesh - Link between stronger El Nio events and cholera prevalence. Researchers found a robust relationship between progressively stronger El Nio events and cholera prevalence, spanning a 70-year period from 1893-1940 and 1980-2001. There has been a marked intensification of the El Nio/Southern Oscillation phenomenon since the 1980s, which is not fully explained by the known shifts in the Pacific basin temperature regime that began in the mid-1970s. Findings by Rodo et al. are consistent with model projections of El Nio intensification under global warming conditions. The authors make a strong case for the climate-health link by providing evidence for biological sensitivity to climate, meteorological evidence of climate change, and evidence of epidemiological change with global warming. The study likely represents the first piece of evidence that warming trends over the last century are affecting human disease. 9. Lake Baikal, Russia - Shorter freezing period. Winter freezing is about 11 days later and spring ice breakup is about 5 days earlier compared to a century ago. Some regions of Siberia have warmed by as much as 2.5F (1.4C) in just 25 years.

10. Iran - Desiccated wetlands, 2001 Ninety percent of wetlands have dried up after 2 years of extreme drought. Much of South West Asia has experienced a prolonged three-year drought that is unusual in its magnitude. Out of 102 years of record, 1999, 2000, and 2001 rank as the fifth, third, and seventh driest on record. 1999-2000 was the driest winter on record.

11. Pakistan - Longest drought on record, 1999-2001. The prolonged three-year drought, which covers much of South West Asia, has affected 2.2 million people and 16 million livestock in Pakistan. 12. Tajikistan - Lowest rainfall in 75 years, 2001. 2001 marked the third consecutive year of drought, which has destroyed half the wheat crop. 13. Korea - Worst drought in 100 years of record, 2001. It coincided with an average annual temperature increase in Asias temperate region, which includes Korea, by more than 1.8F (1C) over the past century. The warming has been most pronounced since 1970. 14. China - Disappearing Lakes, 2001. More than half of the 4,000 lakes in the Qinghai province are disappearing due to drought. The severity of the impact is exacerbated by overpumping of aquifers. Annual average temperature in China has increased during the past century, with pronounced warming since 1980. Most of the warming has been in northern areas, including Qinghai Province, and in the winter.

MAJOR CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING

1. Greenhouse gases
Green House effect is an phenomenon in which earth's atmosphere traps the heat from the sun & prevents it from escaping. The phenomenon is so named because earth's atmosphere acts like a greenhouse made of glass in which sunlight enters through transparent glass, but the heat released by plants in the form of infrared radiations is not allowed to escape. As a result of this , the temp. increasses inside the greenhouse. In a similar manner, sunlight enters earth's atmosphere and heats the surface of the earth. But certain gases present in the atmosphere trap the heat emitted by earth's surface & do not allow it to escape. This causes an increase in temp. of earth's atmosphere. This is known as Global Warming. The gases causing green house effect are called greenhouse gases. Carbon Dioxide, methane, ozone, and CFCs are the green house gases present in the atmosphere which are responsible for global warming. Scientific consensus has identified carbon dioxide as the dominant greenhouse gas. The dominant greenhouse gas overall is water vapor. Water vapor, however, has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days) and is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, so it is not a forcing gas in the context of global warming. Methane and nitrous oxide are also major forcing contributors to the greenhouse effect. The chart below attributes anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to eight main economic sectors, of which the largest contributors are power stations (many of which burn coal or other fossil fuels), industrial processes (among which cement production is a dominant contributor), transportation fuels (generally fossil fuels), and agricultural by-products (mainly methane from enteric fermentation and nitrous oxide from fertilizer use).

2)Land use Climate change is attributed to land use for two main reasons. While 66% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the last 250 years have resulted from burning fossil fuels, 33% have resulted from changes in land use, primarily deforestation. Deforestation both reduces the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by deforested regions and releases greenhouse gases directly, together with aerosols, through biomass burning that frequently accompanies it. A second reason that climate change has been attributed to land use is that the terrestrial albedo is often altered by use, which leads to radiative forcing. This effect is more significant locally than globally. 3)Livestock and land use Worldwide, livestock production occupies 70% of all land used for agriculture, or 30% of the ice-free land surface of the Earth. Scientists attribute more than 18% of artificial greenhouse gas emissions to livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices. The following are the major causes of global warming due to livestock and livestock activities:

9% of global carbon dioxide emissions

35-40% of global methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure) 64% of global nitrous oxide emissions, chiefly due to fertilizer use.

4)Aerosols With virtual certainty, scientific consensus has attributed various forms of climate change, chiefly cooling effects, to aerosols, which are small particles or droplets suspended in the atmosphere. Key sources to which anthropogenic aerosols are attributed include:

biomass burning such as slash and burn deforestation. Aerosols produced are primarily black carbon. industrial air pollution, which produces soot and airborne sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium dust produced by land use effects such as desertification

Detection vs. attribution

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country including land-use change

Detection of a signal requires demonstrating that an observed change is statistically significantly different from that which can be explained by natural internal variability. Attribution requires demonstrating that a signal is:
o o

unlikely to be entirely due to internal variability; consistent with the estimated responses to the given combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing not consistent with alternative, physically plausible explanations of recent climate change that exclude important elements of the given combination of forcing. Detection does not imply attribution, and is easier to show than attribution. Unequivocal attribution would require controlled experiments with multiple copies of the climate system, which is not possible. Therefore, attribution, as described above, can only be done within some margin of error. For example, the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report says "it is extremely likely that human activities have exerted a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750," where "extremely likely" indicates a probability greater than 95%. Following the publication of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, "detection and attribution" of climate change has remained an active area of research. Some important results include:

o A review of detection and attribution studies by the International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group found that "natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 yr can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus, the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that 'most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the increase in greenhouse gases. o Multiple independent reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years confirm that the late 20th century is probably the warmest period in that time. o Two papers in the journal Science in August 2005 resolve the problem, evident at the time of the TAR, of tropospheric temperature trends. The UAH version of the record contained errors, and there is evidence of spurious cooling trends in the radiosonde

record, particularly in the tropics. See satellite temperature measurements for details; and the 2006 US CCSP report. o Barnett and colleagues say that the observed warming of the oceans "cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models," concluding that "it is of human origin, a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences"

Warming on other planets? o Over the last two decades, proxy evidence of local or planetary warming has been observed on Mars, Pluto, Jupiter, and Neptune's largest moon Triton. It has sometimes been asserted in the popular press that this points to a solar explanation for the recent warming on Earth. Physicist Khabibullo Abdusamatov claims that solar variation has caused global warming on Earth, and that the coincident warmings "can only be a straightline consequence of the effect of the one same factor: a long-time change in solar irradiance." This view is not accepted by other scientists. Planetary physicist Colin Wilson responded, "His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," and climate scientist Amato Evan stated, "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations." Charles Long ofPacific Northwest National Laboratory, who studies radiative transfer, says "That's nuts ... It doesn't make physical sense that that's the case. Jay Pasachoff, an astronomy professor at Williams College, said that Pluto's global warming was "likely not connected with that of the Earth. The major way they could be connected is if the warming was caused by a large increase in sunlight. But the solar constant, the amount of sunlight received each second is carefully monitored by spacecraft, and we know the Sun's output is much too steady to be changing the temperature of Pluto." Instead, scientific opinion is that these changes are caused by other factors, such as orbital irregularities or (in the case of Mars) changes in albedo as a result of dust storms.

Effects of global warming

Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrink age, Arctic methane release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and sea level rise. Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales, there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change. Some of the physical impacts of climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales. Sea level is expected to rise 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches) by the end of the 21st century. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets. Slowing of the Meridional Overturning Circulation is very likely to occur this century, but temperatures in the Atlantic and Europe will probably still be higher due to global warming. For a global warming of 14C (relative to 19902000), there is a moderate chance that partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia. Including the possible contribution of partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 46 m or more. The impacts on human systems of climate change will probably be distributed unevenly. Some regions and sectors are expected to experience benefits while others will experience costs. With greater levels of warming (greater than 23C, relative to 1990 levels), it is likely that benefits will decline and costs increase. Low-latitude and lessdeveloped areas are probably at the greatest risk from climate change. With human systems, adaptation potential for climate change impacts is considerable, although the costs of adaptation are largely unknown and potentially large. Climate change will likely result in reduced diversity of ecosystems and the extinction of many species. Adaptation potential for biological and geophysical systems is estimated to be lower than that for human systems.

Physical impacts: 1)Effects on weather Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on storms are less clear. Extra-tropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.

-i-Extreme weather Based on future projections of climate change, the IPCC report makes a number of predictions. It is predicted that over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells or heat waves will very likely increase. It is likely that:

Increased areas will be affected by drought There will be increased intense tropical cyclone activity There will be increased incidences of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)

Storm strength leading to extreme weather is increasing, such as the power dissipation index of hurricane intensity. Kerry Emanuel writes that hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming. However, a further study by Emanuel using current model output concluded that the increase in power dissipation in recent decades cannot be completely attributed to global warming. Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, highCO2 conditions, are more intense, however, hurricane frequency will be reduced. Worldwide, the proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 or 5 with wind speeds above 56 meters per second has risen from 20% in the 1970s to 35% in the 1990s. Precipitation hitting the US from hurricanes has increased by 7% over the twentieth century. The extent to which this is due to global warming as opposed to the Atlantic Multi decadal Oscillation is unclear. Some studies have found that the increase in sea surface temperature may be offset by an increase in wind shear, leading to little or no change in hurricane activity. Hoyos et al. (2006) have linked the increasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 19702004 directly to the trend in sea surface temperatures. Increases in catastrophes resulting from extreme weather are mainly caused by increasing population densities, and anticipated future increases are similarly dominated by societal change rather than climate change. The World Meteorological Organization explains that though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point. They also clarified that no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change. Thomas Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of NOAA stated in 2004 that warming induced by greenhouse gas may lead to increasing occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms. In 2008, Knutson found that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies could reduce under future greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Vecchi and Soden find

that wind shear, the increase of which acts to inhibit tropical cyclones, also changes in model-projections of global warming. There are projected increases of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and East Pacific associated with the deceleration of the Walker circulation, as well as decreases of wind shear in the western and central Pacific. The study does not make claims about the net effect on Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes of the warming and moistening atmospheres, and the model-projected increases in Atlantic wind shear. A substantially higher risk of extreme weather does not necessarily mean a noticeably greater risk of slightly-above-average weather. However, the evidence is clear that severe weather and moderate rainfall are also increasing. Increases in temperature are expected to produce more intense convection over land and a higher frequency of the most severe storms. -ii-Increased evaporation

Increasing water vapor at Boulder, Colorado.

Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates have reduced worldwide ; this is thought by many to be explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer and the causes of global dimming are reduced, evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall, with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification. On the other hand, in other areas, increased rainfall lead to growth of forests in dry desert areas.

Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses. The IPCC Third Annual Report says: "global average water vapor concentration and precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected."

-iii-Local climate change

The first recorded South Atlantic hurricane, "Catarina", which hit Brazil in March 2004

In the northern hemisphere, the southern part of the Arctic region (home to 4,000,000 people) has experienced a temperature rise of 1 C to 3 C (1.8 F to 5.4 F) over the last 50 years. Canada, Alaska and Russia are experiencing initial melting of permafrost. This may disrupt ecosystems and by increasing bacterial activity in the soil lead to these areas becoming carbon sources instead ofcarbon sinks. A study of changes to eastern Siberia's permafrost suggests that it is gradually disappearing in the southern regions, leading to the loss of nearly 11% of Siberia's nearly 11,000 lakes since 1971. At the same time, western Siberia is at the initial stage where melting permafrost is creating new lakes,

which will eventually start disappearing as in the east. Furthermore, permafrost melting will eventually cause methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs. Prior to March 2004, no tropical cyclone had been observed in the South Atlantic Ocean. The first Atlantic cyclone to form south of the equator hit Brazil on March 28, 2004 with 40 m/s winds, although some Brazilian meteorologists deny that it was a hurricane. Monitoring systems may have to be extended 1,600 km (1,000 miles) further south. There is no agreement as to whether this hurricane is linked to climate change, but one climate model exhibits increased tropical cyclone genesis in the South Atlantic under global warming by the end of the 21st century.

2) Glacier retreat and disappearance

A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue. In historic times, glaciers grew during a cool period from about 1550 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age. Subsequently, until about 1940, glaciers around the world retreated as the climate warmed. Glacier retreat declined and reversed in many cases from 1950 to

1980 as a slight global cooling occurred. Since 1980, glacier retreat has become increasingly rapid and ubiquitous, and has threatened the existence of many of the glaciers of the world. This process has increased markedly since 1995. Excluding the ice caps and ice sheets of the Arctic and Antarctic, the total surface area ofglaciers worldwide has decreased by 50% since the end of the 19th century. Currently glacier retreat rates and mass balance losses have been increasing in the Andes, Alps,Pyrenees, Himalayas, Rocky Mountains and North Cascades. The loss of glaciers not only directly causes landslides, flash floods and glacial lakeoverflow, but also increases annual variation in water flows in rivers. Glacier runoff declines in the summer as glaciers decrease in size, this decline is already observable in several regions. Glaciers retain water on mountains in high precipitation years, since the snow cover accumulating on glaciers protects the ice from melting. In warmer and drier years, glaciers offset the lower precipitation amounts with a higher meltwater input. Of particular importance are the Hindu Kush and Himalayan glacial melts that comprise the principal dry-season water source of many of the major rivers of the Central, South, East and Southeast Asian mainland. Increased melting would cause greater flow for several decades, after which "some areas of the most populated regions on Earth are likely to 'run out of water'" as source glaciers are depleted. The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Temperatures there are rising four times faster than in the rest of China, and glacial retreat is at a high speed compared to elsewhere in the world. According to a Reuters report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the sources of Asia's biggest riversGanges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze,Mekong, Salween and Yellow could diminish as temperatures rise. Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers. India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people. It has to be acknowledged, however, that increased seasonal runoff of Himalayan glaciers led to increased agricultural production in northern India throughout the 20th century. The recession of mountain glaciers, notably in Western North America, Franz-Josef Land, Asia, the Alps, the Pyrenees, Indonesia and Africa, and tropical and sub-tropical regions of South America, has been used to provide qualitative support to the rise in global temperatures since the late 19th century. Many glaciers are being lost to melting

further raising concerns about future local water resources in these glaciated areas. In Western North America the 47 North Cascade glaciers observed all are retreating.

Retreat of the Helheim Glacier, Greenland

Despite their proximity and importance to human populations, the mountain and valley glaciers of temperate latitudes amount to a small fraction of glacial ice on the earth. About 99% is in the great ice sheets of polar and sub polar Antarctica and Greenland. These continuous continental-scale ice sheets, 3 kilometres (1.9 mi) or more in thickness, cap the polar and sub polar land masses. Like rivers flowing from an enormous lake, numerous outlet glaciers transport ice from the margins of the ice sheet to the ocean. Glacier retreat has been observed in these outlet glaciers, resulting in an increase of the ice flow rate. In Greenland the period since the year 2000 has brought retreat to several very large glaciers that had long been stable. Three glaciers that have been researched, Helheim, Jakobshavn Isbr and Kangerdlugssuaq Glaciers, jointly drain more than 16%

of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Satellite images and aerial photographs from the 1950s and 1970s show that the front of the glacier had remained in the same place for decades. But in 2001 it began retreating rapidly, retreating 7.2 km between 2001 and 2005. It has also accelerated from 20 m /day to 32 m /day. Jakobshavn Isbr in western Greenland had been moving at speeds of over 24 m /day with a stable terminus since at least 1950. The glacier's ice tongue began to break apart in 2000, leading to almost complete disintegration in 2003, while the retreat rate doubled to over 30 m /day.

3)Oceans The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation. -i-Sea level rise With increasing average global temperature, the water in the oceans expands in volume, and additional water enters them which had previously been locked up on land in glaciers, for example, the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets. For most glaciers worldwide, an average volume loss of 60% until 2050 is predicted. Meanwhile, the estimated total ice melting rate over Greenland is 239 cubic kilometres per year, mostly from East Greenland. The Antarctic ice sheet, however, is expected to grow during the 21st century because of increased precipitation. Under the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) A1B, by the mid-2090s global sea level will reach 0.22 to 0.44 m in above 1990 levels, and is currently rising at about 4 mm per year. Since 1900, the sea level has risen at an average of 1.7 mm per year; since 1993, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of about 3 mm per year. The sea level has risen more than 120 metres since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago. The bulk of that occurred before 7000 years ago. Global temperature declined after the Holocene Climatic Optimum, causing a sea level lowering of 3.9 in between 4000 and 2500 years before present. From 3000 years ago to the start of the 19th

century, sea level was almost constant, with only minor fluctuations. However, the Medieval Warm Period may have caused some sea level rise; evidence has been found in the Pacific Ocean for a rise to perhaps 0.9 m above present level in 700 BP. In a paper published in 2007, the climatologist James Hansen et al. claimed that ice at the poles does not melt in a gradual and linear fashion, but that another according to the geological record, the ice sheets can suddenly destabilize when a certain threshold is exceeded. Sea level rise due to the collapse of an ice sheet would be distributed nonuniformly across the globe. The loss of mass in the region around the ice sheet would decrease the gravitational potential there, reducing the amount of local sea level rise or even causing local sea level fall. The loss of the localized mass would also change the moment of inertia of the Earth, as flow in the Earth's mantle will require 1015 thousand years to make up the mass deficit. This change in the moment of inertia results in true polar wander, in which the Earth's rotational axis remains fixed with respect to the sun, but the rigid sphere of the Earth rotates with respect to it. This changes the location of the equatorial bulge of the Earth and further affects the geoid, or global potential field. A 2009 study of the effects of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shows the result of both of these effects. Instead of a global 5-meter sea level rise, western Antarctica would experience approximately 25 centimeters of sea level fall, while the United States, parts of Canada, and the Indian Ocean, would experience up to 6.5 meters of sea level rise. A paper published in 2008 by a group of researchers at the University of Wisconsin lead by Anders Carlson used the deglaciation of North America at 9000 years before present as an analogue to predict sea level rise of 1.3 meters in the next century, which is also much higher than the IPCC predictions. However, models of glacial flow in the smaller present-day ice sheets show that a probable maximum value for sea level rise in the next century is 80 centimeters, based on limitations on how quickly ice can flow below the equilibrium line altitude and to the sea. -ii-Temperature rise From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007. The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 C (0.31 F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole . As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by

melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2. -iii-Acidification Ocean acidification is an effect of rising concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, and is not a direct consequence of global warming. The oceans soak up much of the CO2 produced by living organisms, either as dissolved gas, or in the skeletons of tiny marine creatures that fall to the bottom to become chalk or limestone. Oceans currently absorb about one tonne of CO2 per person per year. It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all CO2 generated by human activities since 1800. In water, CO2 becomes a weak carbonic acid, and the increase in the greenhouse gas since the Industrial Revolution has already lowered the average pH of seawater by 0.1 units, to 8.2. Predicted emissions could lower the pH by a further 0.5 by 2100, to a level probably not seen for hundreds of millennia and, critically, at a rate of change probably 100 times greater than at any time over this period. There are concerns that increasing acidification could have a particularly detrimental effect on corals (16% of the world's coral reefs have died from bleaching caused by warm water in 1998, which coincidentally was the warmest year ever recorded) and other marine organisms withcalcium carbonate shells. In November 2009 an article in Science by scientists at Canada's Department of Fisheries and Oceans reported they had found very low levels of the building blocks for the calcium chloride that forms plankton shells in the Beaufort Sea. Fiona McLaughlin, one of the DFO authors, asserted that the increasing acidification of the Arctic Ocean was close to the point it would start dissolving the walls of existing plankton: "[the] Arctic ecosystem may be risk. In actual fact, they'll dissolve the shells." Because cold water absorbs CO2 more readily than warmer water the acidification is more severe in the polar regions. McLaughlin predicted the acidified water would travel to the North Atlantic within the next ten years. -iv-Shutdown of thermohaline circulation There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.

The chances of this near-term collapse of the circulation are unclear; there is some evidence for the short-term stability of the Gulf Stream and possible weakening of the North Atlantic drift.[citation needed] However, the degree of weakening, and whether it will be sufficient to shut down the circulation, is under debate. As yet, no cooling has been found in northern Europe or nearby seas.[citation needed] Lenton et al. found that "simulations clearly pass a THC tipping point this century". -v-Oxygen depletion The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.

5)Ecosystems Unchecked global warming could affect most terrestrial eco regions. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems will change; some species are being forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Secondary effects of global warming, such as lessened snow cover, rising sea levels, and weather changes, may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystem. Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from the University of York write, "The global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new mass extinction event, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out." Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears and Emperor Penguins. In the Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice. Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and Snowy Owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be hit hard. Marine invertebrates enjoy peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, regardless of how cold these may be, and cold-blooded animals found at greater latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season. Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout. Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds, and butterflies have shifted their ranges northward by 200 km in Europe and North

America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down by cities and roads. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago. A 2002 article in Nature surveyed the scientific literature to find recent changes in range or seasonal behaviour by plant and animal species. Of species showing recent change, 4 out of 5 shifted their ranges towards the poles or higher altitudes, creating "refugee species". Frogs were breeding, flowers blossoming and birds migrating an average 2.3 days earlier each decade; butterflies, birds and plants moving towards the poles by 6.1 km per decade. A 2005 study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them . Scientists have observed that Antarctic hair grass is colonizing areas of Antarctica where previously their survival range was limited. Mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change. Parmesan states, "Few studies have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species" and McLaughlin agreed "few mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change." Daniel Botkin and other authors in one study believe that projected rates of extinction are overestimated. Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the Blue Whale. Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans, may affect existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well. The white lemuroid possum, only found in the mountain forests of northern Queensland, has been named as the first mammal species to be driven extinct by man-made global warming. The White Possum has not been seen in over three years. These possums cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 C (86 F), which occurred in 2005. A final expedition to uncover any surviving White Possums is scheduled for 2009.

-i-Forests

Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of severe winters since that time; a few days of extreme cold kill most mountain pine beetles and have kept outbreaks in the past naturally contained. The infestation, which (by November 2008) has killed about half of the province's lodgepole pines (33 million acres or 135,000 km) is an order of magnitude larger than any previously recorded outbreak and passed via unusually strong winds in 2007 over the continental divide to Alberta. An epidemic also started, be it at a lower rate, in 1999 in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. The United States forest service predicts that between 2011 and 2013 virtually all 5 million acres of Colorados lodgepole pine trees over five inches (127 mm) in diameter will be lost. As the northern forests are a carbon sink, while dead forests are a major carbon source, the loss of such large areas of forest has a positive feedback on global warming. In the worst years, the carbon emission due to beetle infestation of forests in British Columbia

alone approaches that of an average year of forest fires in all of Canada or five years worth of emissions from that country's transportation sources. Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests provide a fire risk. Even many healthy forests appear to face an increased risk of forest fires because of warming climates. Forest fires in Indonesia have dramatically increased since 1997 as well. These fires are often actively started to clear forest for agriculture. They can set fire to the large peat bogs in the region and the carbon dioxide released by these peat bog fires has been estimated, in an average year, to be 15% of the quantity of carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel combustion. -ii-Mountains Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats. Researchers expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of water. Studies suggest that a warmer climate in the United States would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the higher alpine zone. Such a shift would encroach on the rare alpine meadows and other high-altitude habitats. High-elevation plants and animals have limited space available for new habitat as they move higher on the mountains in order to adapt to long-term changes in regional climate. Changes in climate will also affect the depth of the mountains snowpacks and glaciers. Any changes in their seasonal melting can have powerful impacts on areas that rely on freshwater runoff from mountains. Rising temperature may cause snow to melt earlier and faster in the spring and shift the timing and distribution of runoff. These changes could affect the availability of freshwater for natural systems and human uses. -iii-Ecological productivity According to a 2003 paper by Smith and Hitz, it is reasonable to assume that the relationship between increased global mean temperature and ecosystem productivity is parabolic. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations will favourably affect plant growth and demand for water. Higher temperatures could initially be favourable for plant growth. Eventually, increased growth would peak then decline. Research done by the Swiss Canopy Crane Project suggests that slow-growing trees only are stimulated in growth for

a short period under higher CO2 levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term. In general, but especially in rainforests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades. 6)Water scarcity Sea level rise is projected to increase salt-water intrusion into groundwater in some regions, affecting drinking water and agriculture in coastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weather means more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of a replenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water supply. The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different effects. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt. Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower. Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.

7)Health Climate change currently contributes to the burden of disease and premature deaths. Economic development will affect how effective adaptation to climate change will be. According to the IPCC report, it is likely that:

climate change will bring some benefits, such as reduced cold deaths. the balance of positive and negative health impacts will vary from one location to another. adverse health impacts will be greatest in low-income countries.

the negative health impacts of climate change will outweigh the benefits, especially in developing countries. Some examples of negative health impacts include increased malnutrition, increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts, and increased frequency of cardiorespiratory diseases.

According to a 2009 study by UCL academics, climate change and global warming pose the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. The most direct effect of climate change on humans might be the impacts of hotter temperatures themselves. Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die on a given day for many reasons: people with heart problems are vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool during hot weather, heat exhaustion, and some respiratory problems increase. Global warming could mean more cardiovascular diseases, doctors warn. Higher air temperature also increase the concentration of ozone at ground level. In the lower atmosphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant. It damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases. Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality: higher temperatures in winter reduce deaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths. The net local impact of these two direct effects depends on the current climate in a particular area. Spread of disease: Global warming may extend the favourable zones for vectors conveying infectious disease such as dengue fever, West Nile virus, and malaria. In poorer countries, this may simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. In richer countries, where such diseases have been eliminated or kept in check by vaccination, draining swamps and using pesticides, the consequences may be felt more in economic than health terms. The World Health Organization (WHO) says global warming could lead to a major increase in insect-borne diseases in Britain and Europe, as northern Europe becomes warmer, ticks and lyme diseases are likely to move in. However, malaria has always been a common threat in European past, with the last epidemic occurring in the Netherlands during the 1950s. In the United States, Malaria has been endemic in as much as 36 states (including Washington, North Dakota, Michigan and New York) until the 1940s. By 1949, the

country was declared free of malaria as a significant public health problem, after more than 4,650,000 house DDT spray applications had been made. The World Health Organisation estimates 150,000 deaths annually "as a result of climate change", of which half are in the Asia-Pacific region. In April 2008, it reported that, as a result of increased temperatures, the number of malaria infections is expected to increase in the highland areas of Papua New Guinea. 8)Economic and social Effects Indigenous populations in high-latitude areas are already experiencing significant adverse impacts because of climate change. The impact of future climate change on human systems will likely be unevenly distributed. Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to future climate change. Developing countries are probably more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. With warming of 12C above 19902000 levels, it is likely that key negative impacts would be experienced in some regions, e.g., Arctic nations and small islands. In other regions, some population groups would be threatened by this level of warming, e.g., high-altitude communities and coastal-zone communities with significant levels of poverty. Above 23C warming, it is likely that most countries would experience net negative impacts. The total economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Typical estimates of climate change impacts are of a change in gross world product of plus or minus a few percent. Small changes in gross world product could be associated with relatively large changes in national economies. 9)Effects on agriculture Climate change is expected to have a mixed effect on agriculture, with some regions benefitting from moderate temperature increases and others being negatively affected. Low-latitude areas are at most risk of suffering decreased crop yields. Mid- and highlatitude areas could see increased yields for temperature increases of up to 13C (relative to the period 198099). According to the IPCC report, above 3C of warming, global agricultural production might decline. Most of the agricultural studies assessed in the Report do not include changes in extreme weather events, changes in the spread of pests and diseases, or potential developments that may aid adaptation to climate change. Rice crops might be strongly affected by rising temperatures. At a 2005 Conference held

by the Royal Society, the benefits of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were said to be outweighed by the negative impacts of climate change. 10)Distribution of impacts -i- In Iceland, rising temperatures have made possible the widespread sowing of barley, which was untenable twenty years ago. Some of the warming is due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from the Caribbean, which has also affected fish stocks. By the mid-21st century, in Siberia and elsewhere in Russia, climate change is expected to expand the scope for agriculture. In East and Southeast Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%. In drier areas ofLatin America, productivity of some important crops is expected to decline, while in temperate zones, soybean yields are expected to increase. In Northern Europe, climate change is expected to initially benefit crop yields. Subsistence and commercial agriculture are expected to be adversely affected by climate change in small islands. Without further adaptation, by 2030, production from agriculture is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and parts of eastern New Zealand. Initial benefits are projected in western and southern areas of New Zealand. In North America, over the first few decades of this century, moderate climate change is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 520%, but with important variability among regions. According to a 2006 paper by Deschenes and Greenstone, predicted increases in temperature and precipitation will have virtually no effect on the most important crops in the US. In Africa, climate change is expected to severely compromise agricultural production and access to food. Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable, and seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maizethe country's staple cropwill be grown. Alongside other factors, regional climate change - in particular, reduced precipitation - is thought to have contributed to the conflict in Darfur. The combination of decades of drought, desertification and overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Baggara Arab nomads searching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples.

-ii- Coasts and low-lying areas For historical reasons to do with trade, many of the world's largest and most prosperous cities are on the coast. In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplains, because it is the only available space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dykes and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit needed to recover from disasters. With future climate change, it is likely that densely populated coastal areas will face increased risk of sea level rise and damages due to more intense extreme weather events. Due to differences in adaptive capacity, adaptation of the coasts of developing countries will probably be more difficult than for the coasts of developed countries. -iii- Migration Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as Tuvalu, are concerned about the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become economically unviable for them. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation. In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees at around 25 million. (Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugees, which only includes migrants fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the worlds governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050s predicted 10 billion world population).[126][127]

-iv- Northwest Passage

Melting Arctic ice may open the Northwest Passage in summer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia. This would be of particular benefit for supertankers which are too big to fit through the Panama Canal and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's eastern Arctic Archipelago decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.

In September 2007, the Arctic Ice Cap retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history. In August, 2008, melting sea ice simultaneously opened up the Northwest Passage and theNorthern Sea Route, making it possible to sail around the Arctic ice cap. The Northwest Passage opened August 25, 2008, and the remaining tongue of ice blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Because of Arctic shrinkage, the Beluga group of Bremen, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route in 2009. -v- Maldives The Guardian that his government plans to start saving funds to buy a new homeland as a contingency plan in case the low-lying island nation sinks entirely due to climate change. Nasheed says the government will allocate some of the $1 billion a year that the country

earns from its booming tourism industry to create a sovereign fund toward the purchase of new land on higher ground. The government has already discussed the idea with several countries. Among those under consideration are Sri Lanka, India and Australia. Scientists predict that the coral islands that make up the Maldives, most of which lie less than five feet above sea level, will sink if climate change continues at its current pace. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that sea levels in the country will rise by at least 7.1 inches by the end of the century. The UN forecasts that the seas are likely to rise by up to 59cm by 2100, due to global warming. Most parts of the Maldives are just 1.5m above water. The president said even a "small rise" in sea levels would inundate large parts of the archipelago.

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Rio Summit, Rio Conference, Earth Summit (Portuguese: Eco '92) was a major United Nations conference held in Rio de Janeiro from June 3 to June 14, 1992.to 14 June 1992. The objective of the treaty is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The treaty itself sets no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms. The treaty is considered legally nonbinding. Instead, the treaty provides for updates (called "protocols") that would set mandatory emission limits. The principal update is the Kyoto Protocol, which has become much better known than the UNFCCC itself. The UNFCCC was opened for signature on May 9, 1992, after an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee produced the text of the Framework Convention as a report following its meeting in New York from 30 April to 9 May 1992. It entered into force on March 21, 1994. As of December 2009, UNFCCC had 192 parties. One of its first tasks was to establish national greenhouse gas inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, which were used to create the 1990 benchmark levels for accession of Annex I countries to the Kyoto Protocol and for the commitment of those countries to GHG reductions. Updated inventories must be regularly submitted by Annex I countries. The UNFCCC is also the name of the United Nations Secretariat charged with supporting the operation of the Convention, with offices in Haus Carstanjen, Bonn, Germany. Since 2006 the head of the secretariat has been Yvo de Boer. The Secretariat, augmented through the parallel efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), aims to gain consensus through meetings and the discussion of various strategies. The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was concluded and established legally binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Annex I countries (industrialized countries and economies in transition) Annex II countries (developed countries which pay for costs of developing countries) Developing countries.

Annex I countries which have ratified the Protocol have committed to reduce their emission levels of greenhouse gasses to targets that are mainly set below their 1990 levels. They may do this by allocating reduced annual allowances to the major operators within their borders. These operators can only exceed their allocations if they buy emission allowances, or offset their excesses through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to UNFCCC. Annex II countries are a sub-group of the Annex I countries. They comprise the OECD members, excluding those that were economies in transition in 1992. Developing countries are not required to reduce emission levels unless developed countries supply enough funding and technology. Setting no immediate restrictions under UNFCCC serves three purposes:

it avoids restrictions on their development, because emissions are strongly linked to industrial capacity they can sell emissions credits to nations whose operators have difficulty meeting their emissions targets they get money and technologies for low-carbon investments from Annex II countries.

Developing countries may volunteer to become Annex I countries when they are sufficiently developed. Some opponents of the Convention argue that the split between Annex I and developing countries is unfair, and that both developing countries and developed countries need to reduce their emissions unilaterally. Some countries claim that their costs of following the Convention requirements will stress their economy. This was one reason given by George W. Bush, then President of the United States, for not forwarding the Kyoto Protocol to the United States Senate for ratification. Other countries point to research, such as the Stern Report, that calculates the cost of compliance to be less than the cost of the consequences of doing nothing. [edit]Annex I countries Annex I countries (industrialized countries): Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark,Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Irelan d, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco,Netherlands, New

Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey,Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America (40 countries and separately the European Union) [edit]Annex II countries Annex II countries (developed countries which pay for costs of developing countries) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Icela nd, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands,New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States of America

Conferences of the Parties Since the UNFCCC entered into force, the parties have been meeting annually in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change, and beginning in the mid-1990s, to negotiate the Kyoto Protocol to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.[2] From 2005 the Conferences have met in conjunction with Meetings of Parties of the Kyoto Protocol (MOP), and parties to the Convention that are not parties to the Protocol can participate in Protocol-related meetings as observers. 1995 - COP 1, The Berlin Mandate The first UNFCCC Conference of Parties took place in the spring of 1995 in Berlin, Germany. It voiced concerns about the adequacy of countries' abilities to meet commitments under the Convention. These were expressed in a U.N. ministerial declaration known as the "Berlin Mandate", which established a 2-year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP), to negotiate a "comprehensive menu of actions" for countries to pick from and choose future options to address climate change which for them, individually, made the best economic and environmental sense. The Berlin Mandate exempted non-Annex I countries from additional binding obligations, in keeping with the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" established in the UNFCCC even though, collectively, the larger, newly industrializing countries were expected to be the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions 15 years hence.

1996 - COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland COP 2 took place in July 1996 in Geneva, Switzerland. Its Ministerial Declaration was adopted July 18, 1996, and reflected a U.S. position statement presented by Timothy Wirth, former Under Secretary for Global Affairs for the U.S. State Department at that meeting, which 1. Accepted the scientific findings on climate change proffered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its second assessment (1995); 2. Rejected uniform "harmonized policies" in favor of flexibility; 3. Called for "legally binding mid-term targets." 1997 - COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change COP 3 took place in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. After intensive negotiations, it adopted the Kyoto Protocol. Most industrialized nations and some central European economies in transition (all defined as Annex B countries) agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of an average of 6% to 8% below 1990 levels between the years 2008-2012, defined as the first emissions budget period. The United States would be required to reduce its total emissions an average of 7% below 1990 levels, however neither the Clinton administration nor the Bush administration sent the protocol to Congress for ratification. The Bush administration explicitly rejected the protocol in 2001. 1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires COP 4 took place in November 1998 in Buenos Aires. It had been expected that the remaining issues unresolved in Kyoto would be finalized at this meeting. However, the complexity and difficulty of finding agreement on these issues proved insurmountable, and instead the parties adopted a 2-year "Plan of Action" to advance efforts and to devise mechanisms for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, to be completed by 2000. 1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany COP 5 took place between October 25 and November 5, 1999, in Bonn, Germany. It was primarily a technical meeting, and did not reach major conclusions.

2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands COP 6 took place between November 13-November 25, 2000, in The Hague, Netherlands. The discussions evolved rapidly into a high-level negotiation over the major political issues. These included major controversy over the United States' proposal to allow credit for carbon "sinks" in forests and agricultural lands, satisfying a major proportion of the U.S. emissions reductions in this way; disagreements over consequences for non-compliance by countries that did not meet their emission reduction targets; and difficulties in resolving how developing countries could obtain financial assistance to deal with adverse effects of climate change and meet their obligations to plan for measuring and possibly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the final hours of COP 6, despite some compromises agreed between the United States and some EU countries, notably the United Kingdom, the EU countries as a whole, led by Denmark and Germany, rejected the compromise positions, and the talks in The Hague collapsed. Jan Pronk, the President of COP 6, suspended COP-6 without agreement, with the expectation that negotiations would later resum. It was later announced that the COP 6 meetings (termed "COP 6 bis") would be resumed in Bonn, Germany, in the second half of July. The next regularly scheduled meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC - COP 7 had been set for Marrakech, Morocco, in October-November 2001. 2001 - COP 6, Bonn, Germany COP 6 negotiations resumed July 17-27, 2001, in Bonn, Germany, with little progress have been made on resolving the differences that had produced an impasse in The Hague. However, this meeting took place after President George W. Bush had become the U.S. President, and had rejected the Kyoto Protocol in March; as a result the United States delegation to this meeting declined to participate in the negotiations related to the Protocol, and chose to act as observers at that meeting. As the other parties negotiated the key issues, agreement was reached on most of the major political issues, to the surprise of most observers given the low level of expectations that preceded the meeting. The agreements included: 1. Flexible Mechanisms: The "flexibility" mechanisms which the United States had strongly favored as the Protocol was initially put together, including emissions trading; Joint Implementation (JI); and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which allow industrialized countries to fund emissions reduction activities in developing countries as an alternative to domestic emission

reductions. One of the key elements of this agreement was that there would be no quantitative limit on the credit a country could claim from use of these mechanisms, but that domestic action must constitute a significant element of the efforts of each Annex B country to meet their targets. 2. Carbon sinks: Credit was agreed to for broad activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere or store it, including forest and cropland management, and revegetation, with no over-all cap on the amount of credit that a country could claim for sinks activities. In the case of forest management, an Appendix Z establishes country-specific caps for each Annex I country, for example, a cap of 13 million tons could be credited to Japan (which represents about 4% of its baseyear emissions). For cropland management, countries could receive credit only for carbon sequestration increases above 1990 levels. 3. Compliance: final action on compliance procedures and mechanisms that would address non-compliance with Protocol provisions was deferred to COP 7, but included broad outlines of consequences for failing to meet emissions targets that would include a requirement to "make up" shortfalls at 1.3 tons to 1, suspension of the right to sell credits for surplus emissions reductions; and a required compliance action plan for those not meeting their targets. 4. Financing: Three new funds were agreed upon to provide assistance for needs associated with climate change; a fund for climate change that supports a series of climate measures; a least-developed-country fund to support National Adaptation Programs of Action; and a Kyoto Protocol adaptation fund supported by a CDM levy and voluntary contributions. A number of operational details attendant upon these decisions remained to be negotiated and agreed upon, and these were the major issues of the COP 7 meeting that followed. 2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco At the COP 7 meeting in Marrakech, Morocco October 29-November 10, 2001, negotiators in effect completed the work of the Buenos AiresPlan of Action, finalizing most of the operational details and setting the stage for nations to ratify the Protocol. The completed package of decisions are known as the Marrakech Accords. The United States delegation continued to act as observers, declining to participate in active negotiations. Other parties continued to express their hope that the United States would re-engage in the process at some point, but indicated their intention to seek ratification of the requisite number of countries to bring the Protocol into force (55 countries representing 55% of

developed country emissions of carbon dioxide in 1990). A target date for bringing the Protocol into force was put forward: the August-September 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) to be held in Johannesburg, South Africa. The main decisions at COP 7 included:

Operational rules for international emissions trading among parties to the Protocol and for the CDM and joint implementation; A compliance regime that outlines consequences for failure to meet emissions targets but defers to the parties to the Protocol after it is in force to decide whether these consequences are legally binding; Accounting procedures for the flexibility mechanisms;

A decision to consider at COP 8 how to achieve a review of the adequacy of commitments that might move toward discussions of future developing country commitments. Johannesburg, 2002 The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held in Johannesburg, South Africa from 26th August to 4 September, 2002,turned out to be as impressive as United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). It was held to mark the tenth anniversary of the Rio Earth Summit and to evaluate the progress on Agenda 21.The WSSD was unable to match the ambition or scope of UNCED it sought a Political Declaration as its principal output. WSSD was different from both Stockholm Summit (1972) and Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (1972) in several ways such as:

A Plan of Implementation- one that was much less ambitious in scope or scale than Agenda 21 but more extensive than the Stockholm Plan of Action. Type 2 agreements - informal agreements involving non-state parties and individual Governments. These agreements also mentioned the massive change in landscape that had occurred over the previous ten years The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation sought agreement on actual targets and timetables rather than simple statements of intent. Direct reference to energy. More importantly, the Declaration clearly identifies energy as a human need at a par with needs such as clean water, sanitation, shelter, health care, food security and biodiversity.

Though there have been many disappointments energy was one of the few areas where progress was made. While it is true that in many cases (including renewable energy) the targets and timetables were not forthcoming and in others they were merely restatements of targets that had already been set (such as in access to clean water), it is also true that in a few areas (such as sanitation) meaningful headway was made in terms of reaching agreement on targets and timetables where there had previously been none. The WSSD saw heated debates about setting up quantifiable targets and timetables for renewable energy use. These discussions eventually failed to yield actual timetables and targets

(principally because of US opposition to them) but they did succeed in introducing more detailed language regarding energy issues than had been present in Agenda 21. The purpose of such summits is principally declaratory. However, the value of these declaratory proclamations must not be underestimated. They serve not only to advance the conceptual agenda but also tend to eventually influence the actual policies, although usually with some time lag. 2002 - COP 8, New Delhi, India October 23 November 1, 2002 2003 - COP 9, Milan, Italy 1 12 December 2003 2004 - COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina 6 17 December 2004 2005 - COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada

COP 11 (or COP 11/MOP 1) took place between November 28 and December 9, 2005, in Montreal,Quebec, Canada. COP 11 was also the first Meeting of the Parties (MOP-1) to the Kyoto Protocol since their initial meeting in Kyoto in 1997. It was therefore one of the largest intergovernmental conferences onclimate change ever. The event marked the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. Hosting more than 10,000 delegates, it was one of Canada's largest international events ever and the largest gathering in Montreal since Expo 67. The Montreal Action Plan is an agreement hammered out at the end of the conference to "extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 expiration date and negotiate deeper cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions."

Canada's environment minister, at the time, Stphane Dion, said the agreement provides a "map for the future."

See also COP 11 pages at the UNFCCC. 2006 - COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya COP 12/MOP 2 took place between 6 and 17 November 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya. At the meeting, the phrase climate tourists was coined to describe some delegates who attended "to see Africa, take snaps of the wildlife, the poor, dying African children and women". 2007 - COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia Main article: 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 13/MOP 3 took place between December 3 and December 15, 2007, at Nusa Dua, in Bali, Indonesia. Agreement on a timeline and structured negotiation on the post 2012 framework (a successor to the Kyoto Protocol) was achieved with the adoption of the Bali Action Plan (Decision 1/CP.13). The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) was established as a new subsidiary body to conduct the negotiations aimed at urgently enhancing the implementation of the Convention now, up to and beyond 2012. These negotiations will take place during 2008 (leading to COP 14/MOP 4 in Poznan, Poland) and 2009 (leading to COP 15/MOP 5 in Copenhagen). 2008 - COP 14/MOP 4, Pozna, Poland Main article: 2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference

2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 14 inPoznan. More image and news:2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 14/MOP 4 took place between 112 December 2008 in Pozna, Poland.[3] Delegates agreed on principles of financing for a fund to help the poorest nations cope with the effects of climate change. And also they approved a mechanism to incorporate forest protection into efforts.[4] 2009 - COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark

Main article: 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 15 took place in Copenhagen, Denmark from 7 December to 18 December 2009. The overall goal for the COP 15/MOP 5 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Denmark was to establish an ambitious global climate agreement for the period from 2012 when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires. However, on November 14, 2009, the New York Times announced that "President Obama and other world leaders have decided to put off the difficult task of reaching a climate change agreement... agreeing instead to make it the mission of the Copenhagen conference to reach a less specific politically binding agreement that would punt the most difficult issues into the future."[5] Ministers and officials from 192 countries took part in the Copenhagen meeting and in addition there were participants from a large number of civil society organizations. A large part of the diplomatic work that lays the foundation for a post-Kyoto agreement has been undertaken up to the COP15. The conference did achieve a binding agreement for the post-Kyoto period. A 13paragraph 'political accord' was agreed by most of the parties, but it was only 'noted' by the COP as there was no consensus. [6] The accord was notable in that it referred to a collective commitment by developed countries for new and additional resources, including forestry and investments through international institutions, that will approach USD 30 billion for the period 2010 - 2012. The negotiations on extending the Kyoto Protocol had unresolved issues as did the negotiations on a framework for long-term cooperative action. The working groups on these tracks to the negotiations are now due to report to COP 16 and MOP 6 in Mexico. The Copenhagen summit, 2009 The Copenhagen Summit will go down in history for having hosted the historic United Nations Climate Change Conference, which is being attended by the leaders and delegates of 192 countries. The 12 Day summit started on 7th December, 2009 with an aim to negotiate a treaty to save the world from Global Warming. The main agenda of the summit is the reduction of carbon emission to help limit the rise in atmospheric temperature. Emission Intensity refers to the measurement of emission per unit of GDP. It allows the total emissions to stay intact while creating a cleaner and more efficient economy by ensuring energy use to be cut for major industries. India is being represented by Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh along with a delegation comprising of 255 people including various Officials, Journalists, representatives from NGOs and Private Organizations. Ramesh stated that India is ready for a voluntary cut in the Carbon Emission Intensity by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020. This declaration was followed by Chinas declaration of 40-45% cut in Carbon Emission Intensity.

However, back home this announcement has led to severe criticism from the Opposition and key climate negotiators who went berserk and even threatened to drop out from the Indian Delegation to Copenhagen Reassuring the Nation that the national interest would not be compromised Ramesh stated that the Summit was voluntary and not binding. He also stated that Indias mission document on Clean Carbon Technology would be submitted on 15th December, 2009.It would focus on the following aspects: Developing ultra super critical technology for coal based power plants that will make them 8% more efficient than normal power plants. Promoting use of bio-fuels like bio ethanol, biomass, agricultural residue etc. Supporting technology that produces oil and gas from coal .This will help India cut oil and gas imports and achieve energy security. India being the fourth largest carbon emitter is listed in the top ten countries to be worst affected in the future by Global warming. Thus the government has already started initiating energy consumption measures. It is possible to reduce the carbon emission intensity level by 20- 25 % through better use of technology in coal fired plants that are responsible for about a third of the carbon emissions. The Copenhagen Summit also witnessed sharp differences between the developed and developing countries over the action plan to cut emission. Developed countries want substantial, long term financial assistance and technology transfer to take mitigation and adaptation measures. There are several apprehensions about a comprehensive deal coming through, although the chances have brightened with a large number of important heads of State agreeing to be Copenhagen for the concluding session on 18th December, 2009.

2010 - COP 16/MOP 6, Mexico Main article: 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 16 is expected to be held in Mexico from 29 November 2010 to 10 December 2010.[7][8] 2011 - COP 17/MOP 7, South Africa The 2011 COP 17 is to be hosted by South Africa from 28 November to 9 December 2011.[9] 2012 - COP 18/MOP 8 For the 2012 COP 18 there are currently two countries bidding to host: Qatar and South Korea.[10]

COPENHAGEN - The U.N. climate conference narrowly escaped collapse Saturday as bitterly divided delegates agreed after all-night talks to recognize a political compromise that President Barack Obama brokered with China and other emerging powers. The Copenhagen Accord was bogged down for hours by protests from delegates who felt they were excluded from the process or said the deal didn't go far enough in cutting the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. After a break, the conference president gaveled a decision to "take note" of the agreement instead of formally approving it. Experts said that clears the way for the accord to begin even though it was not formally approved by the conference. "We have a deal in Copenhagen," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said, adding "this is just the beginning" of a process to craft a binding pact to reduce emissions. He said the agreement "will have an immediate operational effect." Disputes between rich and poor countries and between the world's biggest carbon polluters -- China and the U.S. -- dominated the two-week conference in Copenhagen, the largest and most important U.N. meeting ever on fighting global warming. Obama met twice with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao -- once privately and once with other leaders -- in hopes of sweeping aside some of the disputes that had blocked progress. The U.S. president appeared to have salvaged the faltering talks Friday when he declared a "breakthrough" with China, India, Brazil and South Africa. But the three-page document they agreed upon ran into trouble in the plenary, where delegates from Bolivia, Cuba, Sudan and Venezuela denounced it. Decisions are made by consensus in U.N. climate negotiations. Obama's day of hectic diplomacy produced a document promising $30 billion in emergency climate aid to poor nations in the next three years and a goal of eventually channeling $100 billion a year by 2020 to developing countries. It includes a method for verifying each nation's reductions of heat-trapping gases -- a key demand by Washington, because China has resisted international efforts to monitor its actions. It requires industrial countries to list their individual targets and developing countries to list what actions they will take to cut global warming pollution by specific amounts. Obama called that an "unprecedented breakthrough."

The document said carbon emissions should be reduced enough to keep the increase in average global temperatures below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, but it omits the usual reference to pre-industrial levels. Without that language, the starting point for limiting temperatures would be 0.7 degrees C higher -- the amount of warming in modern times. However, some of the most vulnerable nations believe the limit should be held to a no more than 1.5 degree C rise. Since leaders failed to agree on a binding deal to reduce greenhouse gases, delegates also scrapped a plan to protect the world's biologically rich tropical forests early Saturday that would have paid some 40 poor, tropical countries to protect their forests. Deforestation for logging, cattle grazing and crops has made Indonesia and Brazil the world's third- and fourth-biggest carbon emitters. The overall outcome was a significant disappointment to those who had anticipated the deal brokered by Obama would be turned into a legally binding treaty. Instead, it envisions another year of negotiations and leaves myriad details yet to be decided. "The deal is a triumph of spin over substance. It recognizes the need to keep warming below 2 degrees but does not commit to do so. It kicks back the big decisions on emissions cuts and fudges the issue of climate cash," said Jeremy Hobbs, executive director of Oxfam International. Sudan's delegate, Lumumba Di-Aping, said the agreement would condemn Africa to widespread deaths from global warming and compared it to Nazis sending "6 million people into furnaces" in the Holocaust. The African Union, however, backed the deal and his statement was denounced by other delegations. To resolve the stalemate early Saturday, U.N. officials changed the way the text was presented to the plenary. The conference recognized the agreement and those who agreed with it were invited to sign it. Robert Orr, the U.N. policy coordination chief, said the conference's decision to "take note" of the U.S.-led accord provides it with "equal legal validity as 'accepted."' One reason it's been "a very wild roller coaster ride," he said, was the unusual negotiating process involving the hands-on participation of officials on multiple levels, ranging from heads of state to ministers to negotiators. If the countries had waited to reach a full, binding agreement, "then we wouldn't make any progress," Obama said. In that case, he said, "there might be such frustration and cynicism that rather than taking one step forward, we ended up taking two steps back."

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama called the deal "a major step forward." German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a leading proponent of strong action to confront global warming, gave the Copenhagen Accord only grudging acceptance, saying she had "mixed feelings" about the outcome and called it only a first step. Outside the conference hall Saturday, more than 100 protesters chanted, "You're destroying our future!" Some carried signs of Obama with the words "climate shame" pasted on his face. Obama had planned to spend only about nine hours in Copenhagen but, as an agreement appeared within reach, he extended his stay Friday by more than six hours to attend a series of meetings. He and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton held talks with European leaders, including Merkel, Britain's Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Obama said there was a "fundamental deadlock in perspectives" between big, industrially developed countries like the United States and poorer, though sometimes large, developing nations like China, India and Brazil. Still he said this week's efforts "will help us begin to meet our responsibilities to leave our children and grandchildren a cleaner planet." The deal reflects some progress helping poor nations cope with climate change and getting China to disclose its actions to address the warming problem. But Obama agreed the world would have to take more aggressive steps to combat global warming. The first step, he said, is to build trust between developed and developing countries. In a diatribe against the U.S., Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized the conference as undemocratic. "There is a document that has been moving around, all sorts of documents that have been moving around, there is a real lack of transparency here," he said Friday. "We reject any document that Obama will slip under the door."

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at combating global warming. The UNFCCC is an internationalenvironmental treaty with the goal of achieving "stabilization

ofgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[1] The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto,Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of November 2009, 187 states have signed and ratified the protocol.[2] Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons andperfluorocarbons) produced by them, and all member countries give general commitments. Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping, but are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The benchmark 1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) [2] were the values of "global warming potential" calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These figures are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2 equivalents when computing overall sources and sinks. The Protocol allows for several "flexible mechanisms", such as emissions trading, the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation to allow Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances. Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Countries including Japan, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain and others are actively promoting government carbon funds, supporting multilateral carbon funds intent on purchasing carbon credits from non-Annex I countries,[3] and are working closely with their major utility, energy, oil and gas and chemicals conglomerates to acquire greenhouse gas certificates as cheaply as possible.[citation needed] Virtually all of the

non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage its Kyoto obligations, specifically the "CDM process" that determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the CDM Executive Board. Objectives

Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions ofgreenhouse gases. The objective is the "stabilization and reconstruction of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the year 2012. Contrary to popular belief, the Protocol will NOT expire in 2012. In 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions established for the first commitment period (20082012) (see Annex B of the Protocol). Proponents also note that Kyoto is a first step as requirements to meet the UNFCCC will be modified until the objective is met, as required by UNFCCC Article 4.2(d). The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

commitments to reduce greenhouse gases that are legally binding for annex I countries, as well as general commitments for all member countries; implementation to meet the Protocol objectives, to prepare policies and measures which reduce greenhouse gases; increasing absorption of these gases (for example through geosequestration and biosequestration) and use all mechanisms available,

such as joint implementation, clean development mechanism and emissions trading; being rewarded with credits which allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home;

minimizing impacts on developing countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change; accounting, reporting and review to ensure the integrity of the Protocol;

compliance by establishing a compliance committee to enforce commitment to the Protocol. 2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms" 39 of the 40 Annex I countries have ratified the Protocol. Of these 34 have committed themselves to a reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by them to targets that are set in relation to their 1990 emission levels, in accordance with Annex B of the Protocol. The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons andperfluorocarbons. The six GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining reductions in emissions. These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Under the Protocol, Annex I countries have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets, (formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives"- Article 4.1) that range from a joint reduction of 8% for the European Union and others, to 7% for the United States (non-binding as the US is not a signatory), 6% for Japan and 0% for Russia. The treaty permits emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.[9] Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping. Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol, their 2012 commitments (% of 1990) and 1990 emission levels (% of all Annex I countries) Annex I countries can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have excess emissions credits. 38 of the 39 Annex I countries have agreed to cap their emissions in this way, two others are required to do so under their conditions of accession into the EU, and one more (Belarus) is seeking to become an Annex I country.

The Protocol provides for several "flexible mechanisms" which enable Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission targets by acquiring GHG emission reductions credits. The credits are acquired by an Annex I country financing projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries or other Annex I countries, or by purchasing credits from Annex I countries with excess credits. The flexible mechanisms are emissions trading, the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation. In practice this means that non-Annex I countries have no GHG emission restrictions, but have financial incentives to develop GHG emission reduction projects to receive "carbon credits" that can then be sold to Annex I countries, encouraging sustainable development.[10] In addition, the flexible mechanisms allow annex I countries with efficient, low GHG-emitting industries, and high prevailing environmental standards to purchase carbon credits on the world market instead of reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. Annex I countries typically will want to acquire carbon credits as cheaply as possible, while non-Annex I countries want to maximize the value of carbon credits generated from their domestic greenhouse gas projects.

Current positions of governments People's Republic of China As of August 27, 2008 China surpassed the United States as the biggest emitter in the world of CO2 from power generation, according to theCenter for Global Development.[46] On a per capita basis, however, the emission by the power sector in the U.S. is still nearly four times that in China. The top ten power sector emitters in the world in absolute terms are China, the United States, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia, South Africa, and South Korea. If the 27 member states of the European Union are counted as a single country, the E.U. would rank as the third biggest CO2 polluter, after China and the United States. In per capita terms, emissions from the U.S. power sector are the second highest in the world. The production of electricity in the U.S. produces about 9.5 tons of CO2 per person per year, compared to 2.4 tons per person per year in China, 0.6 in India, and 0.1 in Brazil. The average per capita emission from electricity and heat production in the E.U. is 3.3 tons per year. Only Australia, at greater than 10 tons per year, emits more power-related emissions per person than the U.S does. In a related report, Canadian economists Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal issued a report dated March 27, 2008, The Carbon Tariff[47] Relying on data from a variety of sources,

including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Rubin and Tal ground their proposal for a carbon tariff in striking facts, including the following:

Chinas GHG emissions have increased by 120% since the beginning of the decade, while U.S. emissions have increased 16% over the same period; China now exceeds the United States as the single largest GHG emitter, and accounts for more than a fifth of global GHG emissions; China relies more heavily on coal-fired power plants, the most GHG-intensive energy source, than do most OECD countries. Between now and 2012, the increase in Chinese coal-based emissions will exceed the entire level of coal-based emissions in the United States.

In June 2007, China unveiled a 62-page climate change plan and promised to put climate change at the center of its energy policy and insisted that developed countries had an unshirkable responsibility to take the lead on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and that the principle of "common but differentiated responsibility", as agreed up in the UNFCCC, should be applied.[48][49] China stated the criticisms of its energy policy were unjust.[50] It is unfair to compare among different countries, since China alone makes up one-fifth of the world's population and the per capita emission in China was low compared to the emission in the industrialized world. Even after one combines the population of the E.U., the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, China would still outnumber them by a few hundred million. A comparison of yearly emissions also neglects the cumulative amount generated by developed countries. Studies ofcarbon leakage also suggest that nearly a quarter of China's emissions result from production of goods exported to developed countries.

India See also: Energy policy of India India signed and ratified the Protocol in August, 2002. Since India is exempted from the framework of the treaty, it is expected to gain from the protocol in terms of transfer of technology and related foreign investments. At the G8 meeting in June 2005, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pointed out that the per-capita emission rates of the developing countries are a tiny fraction of those in the developed world. Following the

principle of common but differentiated responsibility, India maintains that the major responsibility of curbing emission rests with the developed countries, which have accumulated emissions over a long period of time. However, the U.S. and other Western nations assert that India, along with China, will account for most of the emissions in the coming decades, owing to their rapid industrialization and economic growth.

United States See also: Energy policy of the United States The United States (U.S.), although a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from the Protocol. The signature alone is merely symbolic, as the Kyoto Protocol is non-binding on the United States unless ratified. The America's Climate Security Act of 2007, also more commonly referred to in the U.S. as the "Cap and Trade Bill", was proposed for greater U.S. alignment with the Kyoto standards and goals.[66] On 25 July 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was finalized (although it had been fully negotiated, and a penultimate draft was finished), the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 950 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98),[67][68] which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing nations as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On 12 November 1998, Vice President Al Goresymbolically signed the protocol. Both Gore and Senator Joseph Lieberman indicated that the protocol would not be acted upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations.[69] The Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification. The Clinton Administration released an economic analysis in July 1998, prepared by the Council of Economic Advisors, which concluded that with emissions trading among the annex B/annex I countries, and participation of key developing countries in the "Clean Development Mechanism"which grants the latter business-as-usual emissions rates through 2012the costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol could be reduced as

much as 60% from many estimates. Estimates of the cost of achieving the Kyoto Protocol carbon reduction targets in the United States, as compared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), predicted losses to GDP of between 1.0% and 4.2% by 2010, reducing to between 0.5% and 2.0% by 2020. Some of these estimates assumed that action had been taken by 1998, and would be increased by delays in starting action.[70] President George W. Bush did not submit the treaty for Senate ratification based on the exemption granted to China (now the world's largest gross emitter of carbon dioxide, although emission is low per capita[71]). Bush opposed the treaty because of the strain he believed the treaty would put on the economy; he emphasized the uncertainties which he believed were present in the scientific evidence. Furthermore, the U.S. was concerned with broader exemptions of the treaty. For example, the U.S. did not support the split between annex I countries and others.[72] In June 2002, the Environmental Protection Agency released the "Climate Action Report 2002". Some observers have interpreted this report as being supportive of the protocol, although the report itself does not explicitly endorse the protocol.[citation needed] At the G8 meeting in June 2005 administration officials expressed a desire for "practical commitments industrialized countries can meet without damaging their economies". According to those same officials, the United States is on track to fulfill its pledge to reduce its carbon intensity 18% by 2012.[73]The United States has signed the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a pact that allows those countries to set their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol while being more flexible. The Administration's position was not uniformly accepted in the U.S. For example, Paul Krugman noted that the target 18% reduction in carbon intensity is still actually an increase in overall emissions.[74] The White House has also come under criticism for downplaying reports that link human activity and greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and that a White House official, former oil industry advocate and currentExxon Mobil officer, Philip Cooney, watered down descriptions of climate research that had already been approved by government scientists, charges the White House denies.[75] Critics point to the Bush administration's close ties to the oil and gas industries. In June 2005, State Department papers showed the administration thanking Exxon executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, including the U.S. stance on Kyoto. Input from the business lobby group Global Climate Coalition was also a factor.[76]

In 2002, Congressional researchers who examined the legal status of the Protocol advised that signature of the UNFCCC imposes an obligation to refrain from undermining the Protocol's object and purpose, and that while the President probably cannot implement the Protocol alone, Congress can create compatible laws on its own initiative.[77] President Barack Obama has, as yet, taken no action with the senate that would change the position of the United States towards this protocol. When Obama was in Turkey in April 2009, he said that "it doesn't make sense for the United States to sign [the Kyoto Protocol] because [it] is about to end". At this time, two years and eleven months remained from the four-year commitment period. n 2012 the Kyoto Protocol to prevent climate changes and global warming runs out. To keep the process on the line there is an urgent need for a new climate protocol. At the conference in Copenhagen2009 the parties of the UNFCCC meet for the last time on government level before the climate agreement need to be renewed. Therefore the Climate Conference in Copenhagen is essential for the worlds climate and the Danish government and UNFCCC is putting hard effort in making the meeting in Copenhagen a success ending up with aCopenhagen Protocol to prevent global warming and climate changes. The Climate Conference will take place in theBella Center. The conference centre is placed not far from Copenhagen and near the Copenhagen Airport, Kastrup. Governmental representatives from 170 countries are expected to be in Copenhagen in the days of the conference accompanied by other governmental representatives, NGO's, journalists and others. In total 8000 people are expected to Copenhagen in the days of the climate meeting. The host of the meeting in Copenhagen is the government of Denmark represented by Connie Hedegaard, the Danish minister of Climate and Energy and Prime Minister Lars Lkke Climate friendly city car in front of the Rasmussen. The official sekretariat is placed in Bella Center connection to The Prime Ministers Office in Copenhagen. Originally the hosting of the climate conference was initiated by the former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The Danish Government has decided that not only the subject of the conference should be focused on the climate but also the conference itself. Among other initiatives the organizers work on mounting af windmill near the Bella Center to produce climate friendly electricity for the conference.

The conference in Copenhagen is the 15th conference of parties (COP15) in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The recent meeting in United Nations Climate Change Conferences was held in December 2007 in Bali. Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC - based in the German city Bonn. An important part of the scientific background for the political decisions taken on the conferences is made by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, based in Geneva, Switzerland. The IPCC is Established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In 2007 the IPCC received the Nobel Peace Price). The 31st G8 summit was held from July 6 to July 8, 2005 at the Gleneagles Hotel in Auchterarder,Perth and Kinross, in Scotland and hosted by British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The locations of previous G8 summits to have been hosted by the United Kingdom include: London (1977, 1984, 1991); and Birmingham (1998). he Group of Seven (G7) was an unofficial forum which brought together the heads of the richest industrialized countries: France, Germany,Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada starting in 1976. The G8, meeting for the first time in 1997, was formed with the addition of Russia. In addition, the President of the European Commission has been formally included in summits since 1981. The summits were not meant to be linked formally with wider international institutions; and in fact, a mild rebellion against the stiff formality of other international meetings was a part of the genesis of cooperation between France's President Giscard d'Estaing and Germany's ChancellorHelmut Schmidt as they conceived the initial summit of the Group of Six (G6) in 1975. The G8 summits during the twenty-first century have inspired widespread debates, protests and demonstrations; and the two- or three-day event becomes more than the sum of its parts, elevating the participants, the issues and the venue as focal points for activist pressure. Composition of summit leaders [edit]Permanent G8 participants The G8 summit was the second Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who had served as host in 2001 at the Genoa summit, but had been subsequently out of office for a time.

Canada - Prime Minister Paul Martin.

France - President Jacques Chirac. Germany - Chancellor Gerhard Schrder. Italy - Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Japan - Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Russia - President Vladimir Putin. United Kingdom - Prime Minister Tony Blair. United States - President George W. Bush.

Global warming Development of a joint declaration on efforts to tackle global warming has been much less successful, principally because of the long-standing U. S. opposition to emission targets as a solution to global warming. The other seven G8 nations France, Russia, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada and the United Kingdom have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and have committed to reducing their carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. Hopes had been raised that the unprecedented joint declaration by the G8 countries' academies of sciences on the need for urgent action on global warming would help moderate the US negotiating position. On July 6, U. S. President Bush recognised "that the surface of the Earth is warmer and that an increase in greenhouse gases is contributing to the problem". However, he said the Kyoto treaty was not the answer. Environment campaigners called the result of the summit "a very disappointing finale". "The G8 have delivered nothing new here and the text conveys no sense of the scale or urgency of the challenge. The action plan, without any targets or timetables, will deliver very little to reduce emissions, or to roll out renewables to the scale required", said a spokesperson for Friends of the Earth. The U.S. also pulled out of financial pledges to fund a network of regional climate centers throughout Africa which were designed to monitor the unfolding impact of global warming. Other schemes opposed by the U.S. include the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) set up to help developing states develop economically while controlling greenhouse gas emissions. To address claims that flying so many people around the world to talk about global warming actually contributes substantially to it, the entire G8 Presidency was designed to be carbon neutral, with calculated resulting carbon emissions being offset by purchasing Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) from a Clean Development Mechanism project.

The Kuyasa low-income housing energy upgrade project located in Cape Town, South Africa, was chosen. The first CDM project to be registered in Africa, it involves the installation of solar water heaters, ceiling insulation and low-energy light-bulbs in hundreds of low-income homes in Khayelitsha township. The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2009 was the twenty-first Meeting of theHeads of Government of the Commonwealth of Nations. It was held in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, between 27 November and 29 November 2009, and was hosted by that country's Prime Minister, Patrick Manning. The host country of the 2011 meeting was also discussed. It had been slated to be hosted inColombo, Sri Lanka, but the renewal of the Sri Lankan civil war, and related allegations of human rights abuses, caused some governments, including those of United Kingdom and Canada,[2][3] to call for a reassessment. This led to the CHOGM being given to Perth, Australia, instead. Sri Lanka was reassigned the CHOGM for CHOGM 2013, and Mauritius was pencilled in as the host of the2015 CHOGM.[4] The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) was reconstituted and strengthened. The Heads of Government agreed to expand the offences that it would be able to investigate to all breaches of the Harare Declaration, rather than just the overthrow of democratic governments. Global warming The summit is dominated by the issue of global warming,[5] as it is being held just before the United Nations Climate Change Conference inCopenhagen, Denmark. The countries agreed a 6bn-a-year climate change fund to promote low-carbon emission development and adaptationin developing countries, to be funded by developed Commonwealth members and France. It is the first CHOGM to be attended by a President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, who is attempting to rally support in the build-up to the Copenhagen summit. It is seen as an indication of reconciliation between France and the Commonwealth, particularly over the issue of Rwanda's prospective membership of the Commonwealth. The meeting is also attended by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and DanishPrime Minister Lars Lkke Rasmussen.