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Co.

Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 090/11/2009

Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Grass is greener near Hillview Avenue
The latest tender results for a condominium site at Hillview Avenue bear out the commonly-held belief that a development near any MRT line (in this case, the Downtown Line) is a boon in itself, if not a lift to the prices it can command when launched. Property cooling measures notwithstanding, the 99-year leasehold site attracted bullish offers from seven developers. Kingsford Development submitted the top bid of $243.2m, a comfortable 15.6% above the second-highest bid by Flamegold Pte Ltd. The breakeven for the land cost works out to just a 5% discount to that of The Hillier, a mixed-used project launched for sale at the beginning of the year. We expect the average selling price for the proposed development on the Hillview site to be similar to The Hillier, whose median price currently is $1,296 psf. The New York-themed tower has sparked a quicker rise in price in the vicinity, with resale condos fetching above $900 psf in the past year or so. Island-wide, The Hillier and Watertown are the only two primary market launches that stood out for a 100% take-up rate of their launched units. In our view, the new land parcel will most likely attract the same strong take-up rate, and the selling price may see a further boost as the date to the launch of the MRT station draws closer. Rental for units in the area was around $2.55 psf pm at the end of the last quarter, according to our estimates. This works out to a respectable gross yield of 3.4%.
Primary market launch prices 2011 to Feb 2012

8 March 2012

The Hillier 99-Yr TOP 2015 Latest caveat: $1462psf Hillington Green 999 yrs fm 1883 TOP 2002 Latest caveat: $1,001 psf Feb12

Land parcel

Summerhill Freehold TOP 2002 Latest caveat: $985 psf Feb12

Hillview Heights Freehold TOP 1996 Latest caveat: $1022 psf Feb12

Glendale Park Freehold TOP 2000 Latest caveat: $939 psf Feb12

Hillview Park Freehold TOP 1995 Latest caveat: $838psf Nov11

Hillview MRT

Source: www.onemap.com.sg

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Hillview

Primary market launch prices 2011 to Feb 2012


1600 The Hillier Chantilly Rise Glendale Park Hillingston Green Hillview Heights Summerhill

1400 $psf 1200

1000

800 11/18 Source: URA 1/7 2/26 4/17 6/6 7/26 9/14 11/3 12/23 2/11 4/1

Hillview tender results The Hillier Apr-11 Far East 99-yr 40,025 289.8 175.8 12 370 672.6 350 812 Latest site Mar-12 Kingsford Development 99-yr 35,416 243.2 148 7 380 638.0 350 918

Developer Leasehold GFA Highest bid ($m) Lowest bid ($m) Number of bids Units Land cost ($psf ppr) Est. construction cost ($psf) Est. breakeven ($psf) Source: URA

Light at the end of the tunnel There are several projects in the vicinity of the Hillview site sold. These received their TOP between 1995 and 2002. In the past decade, prices of Chantilly Rise, Glendale Park, Hillingston Green, Hillview Heights, Hillview Park and Summerhill have been hovering around $380-600+ psf. Finally, in 2006, the residents saw a rise in their property value in anticipation of the opening of a Downtown Line MRT station in 2015. Resale prices have reached $1,000 psf and may edge up following the launch of The Hillier, whose prices currently are at a 30% premium over neighbouring projects.
Resale prices in Hillview since 2002
Chantilly Rise 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Apr-01 Source: URA Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Glendale Park Hillingston Green Hillview Heights Summerhill Hillview Park

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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier Hillview Heights Hillington Green The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier Hillview Heights Glendale Park The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier The Hillier
Source: URA

8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Property Price Indices


Contract month February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12 February12

Size (sq m) 75 75 76 78 68 142 47 76 48 75 58 55 75 113 97 58 58 47 47 58 78 48 58 58 78 78 48 55 58 78 55 57 47

Price ($psf) 1462 1390 1650 1334 1022 1001 1467 1490 1375 1303 1142 1159 1314 937 939 1279 1298 1422 1722 1275 1339 1383 1250 1300 1446 1487 1376 1227 1325 1430 1313 1255 1378

Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)

Level 169.2 206.2 190.4

Change -0.8% +0.2% +1.7%

Government Land Sales (GLS)


Recently Awarded Sites Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610 units) Awarded to Qingjian for $218.9m ($334.6 psf ppr) Yishun Ave 1 / Miltonia Close (35.5k sqm, 355 units) Awarded to TG Dev for $138.9m ($363.6 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Awarded to SP Setia for $180m ($425.8 psf ppr) Alexandra Road (48.8k sqm, 545 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong for $396m ($754.4 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed units) Awarded to SCB Terraform for $70.8m ($510.4 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540 units) Awarded to Wee Hur for $206.2m ($354.4 psf ppr) Mount Vernon (72.8k sqm, 785 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong / TID for $388.1m ($495 psf ppr) Jalan Lempeng (68.4k sqm, 685 units) Awarded to IOI Corp for $408m ($554.4 psf ppr) Kovan Road / Simon Road (35.7k sqm, 360 units) Awarded to Hoi Hups consortium for $194.6m ($506.6 psf ppr) Jervois Road (12.5k sqm, 140 units) Awarded to Singapore Land for $118.9m ($880.7 psf ppr) Bedok South Avenue 3 (60.2k sqm, 595 units) Awarded to Far East Organisation / Frasers / Sekisui House for $345.9m ($534.2 psf ppr) Hillview Avenue (35.4k sqm, 370 units) Awarded to Kingsford Development for $243.2m ($638 psf ppr) Upper Serangoon View / Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.4k sqm, 435 units) Ho Lee Group Pte & Evia Real Estate for $141.8m ($303 psf ppr) Confirmed List (Recently open for tender) Punggol Central/ Edgefield EC (13.2k sqm, 395 units) Tender closing 29 March 2012 Fernvale Lane (22.0k, 770 units) Tender closing 3 April 2012 Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units) Tender closing 11 April 2012 Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender) Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units) Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units) Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units) Stirling Road A (44.5k sqm, 445 units) Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units) Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units)
Source: HDB, URA

Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.96 CityDev 10.99 Ho Bee 1.335 HPL 1.85 KepLand 3.37 SC Global 1.035 SingLand 5.84 UOL 4.79 Wheelock 1.59 Wing Tai 1.27 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.95 -40% 3.51 12.4 -11% 7.51 3.18 -58% 2.34 4.39 -58% 2.7 5.7 -41% 3.64 3.6 -71% 1.59 9.82 -41% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.81 -55% 2.47 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -16% 46% -43% -31% -7% -35% -46% -26% -32% -49%

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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 48.3 93.6 21.2 26.8 43.5 96.7 63.9 52.9 16.7 85.8 83.3 73.0 4.2 81.8 23.4 34.7 92.4 51.0 90.2 49.3 77.4 80.7 85.2 96.7 77.6 12.4 48.5 76.5 90.6 81.5 72.6 59.6 40.8 50.7 81.9 90.0 73.3 36.9 79.6 61.4 28.7 37.9 78.9 92.5 81.7 Units sold (Jan) 14 2 9 2 11 4 3 3 13 8 5 5 3 2 33 8 6 4 3 37 11 7 5 3 770 73 21 14 13 12 12 9 9 8 6 3 387 172 10 2 198 83 7 7 4
Median

8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Secondary Market
($psf) 1,451 1,420 3,331 1,558 1,596 1,904 1,333 1,259 1,327 1,325 1,130 1,050 1,245 745 1,117 1,483 1,731 1,644 1,153 897 986 721 866 814 1,169 855 1,329 693 903 1,507 873 1,354 1,067 860 1,031 1,221 1,289 753 706 808 951 890 1,045 1,394 861 District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Dec11 1,486 1,735 1,175 1030 1,049 795 923 813 836 $psf Jan12 1,316 1,879 1,268 1,248 1,142 925 860 996 1,001 MoM % Change -11.4 8.3 7.9 21.1 8.9 16.4 -6.8 22.5 19.8

City & Southwest (1-8) Farrer Park Suites 29 14 Ascentia Sky 373 349 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 49 D'Leedon 1715 460 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 54 Floridian 336 325 The Interweave 169 108 Thomson Grand 361 191 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Centra Residences 78 13 Euhabitat 748 642 Vacanza @ East 473 394 Central Imperial 63 46 Idyllic Suites 71 3 Eight Courtyards 654 535 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 135 The Seawind 222 77 Silversea 383 354 The Sound 104 53 Tivoli Grande 82 74 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 440 Seastrand 473 366 Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 463 Waterview 696 593 NV Residences 642 621 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Watertown 992 770 Riversound Residences 590 73 Cardiff Residences 163 79 Austville Residences 540 413 A Treasure Trove 882 799 Centro Residences 329 268 The Minton 1145 831 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 59 The Luxurie 622 254 Parc Vera 452 229 Terrasse 414 339 The Vue 50 45 West (22-24) Hillier 528 387 Rainforest (EC) 466 172 Blossom Residences 602 479 Pavillion Park (phase 2) 264 162 North (25-28) Parc Rosewood 689 198 The Nautical 435 165 Woodhaven 337 266 The Greenwich 319 295 The Miltonia 410 335 Source: URA

Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Dec11 4.7 4.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 $psf pm Jan12 4.8 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 MoM % Change 1.6 5.0 -4.4 6.4 1.1 -1.7 -3.0 2.3 9.2

Top 5 Resale Transactions by $psf


Project The Scotts Tower Orchard Scotts Four Seasons Park Suites @ Newton The Suites at Central Source: URA Tenure 103 Yr (fm 2010) 99 Yr (fm 2001) Freehold Freehold Freehold District 9 9 10 11 9 $psf 3,396 2,540 2,470 2,167 2,165

Bottom 5 Resale Transactions by $psf


Project Toh Tuck Lodge Nicon Gardens Lakeside Tower Hougang Green Edelweiss Park Condominium Source: URA Tenure Freehold 99 Yr (fm 1981) 99 Yr (fm 1975) 99 Yr (fm 1994) Freehold District 21 23 22 19 17 $psf 277 451 519 528 550

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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank

8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Tenure 99 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 21 452 1,517 605 146 702 785 294 123 207 6,188 68 620 290 307 234 94 368 9 1,990 343 39 1,255 55 150 109 509 140 2,600 110 357 467 34 442 476 187 131 248 147 86 20 819 75 84 159

City Dev

Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units

KepLand

1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

CapitaLand

3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26

99yr Freehold 99yr Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr Freehold

Ho Bee

Sentosa Sentosa

Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr 99yr

UOL

2 16

Freehold 99yr

Allgreen

2 5 9 12 12 21

99yr Freehold 999yr 999yr 999yr Freehold

Wheelock

9 10

Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

DEVELOPERS LANDBANK (CONTD)


Developer District 2 10 26 Landbank Guocoland

8 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold

Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 60 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,546 249 197 34 595 107 380 153 1 222 728 119 2,785 24 64 38 42 157 35 285 645 70 65 580 75 790 35 208 23 50 31 347 19,730

Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units

Bt Sembawang

4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold

Frasers Centrepoint

9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27

Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Wing Tai

3 9 9 10 10 11 23

99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

MCL Land

10 15 17 19

NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr

SC Global

9 9 9 10 Sentosa

The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

Source:HDB,URA

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate


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