RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of

MASTER OF ENGINEERING In CIVIL ENGINEERING

with specialization in Construction Engineering and Management

Submitted by

N. Sri Hari Rao Roll No. 0109-1188

Under the supervision of

Dr. M. Gopal Naik Associate Professor

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING (Autonomous) OSMANIA UNIVERSITY, HYDERABAD - 500007 September 2010

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING (Autonomous) OSMANIA UNIVERSITY, HYDERABAD

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project work entitled Resource Optimization using Artificial Neural Networks, Submitted by Mr. N. Sri Hari Rao bearing Roll No. 0109-1188, towards partial fulfillment for the award of Master degree in Civil Engineering with Construction Engineering management from University College of Engineering, Osmania University, Hyderabad, is a record of bonafide work done by him under my supervision. The results embodied in the work are not submitted to any other university or institute for the award for any degree or diploma.

Dr. M. Gopal Naik Supervisor Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering University college of engineering (A) Osmania university,Hyderabad-7.

Dr. Ravande Kishore Professor and Head Department of Civil Engineering University college of engineering (A) Osmania university,Hyderabad-7.

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DECLARATION

This is to certify that the work reported in the present thesis titled Resource optimization using Artificial Neural Networks is a record of work done by me in the Department of Civil Engineering, Osmania University, Hyderabad. No part of the thesis is copied from books / journals / internet and wherever the portion is taken; the same has been dully referred in the text. The results are based on the project work done entirely by me and not copied from any other source.

N. Sri Hari Rao

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Abstract

Over the years of the study (2007-2010) presented in this Dissertation the Villa Grande owned by Aditya Builders , Due to the recent severe global recession, company is facing severe problem and all the construction activities slowed down. To increase the productivity of all resources it necessary to forecast the costs arriving from resources so that the total cost of project can be reduced. According to the current estimating procedure, a discrepancy of up to 2% exists between the estimated and actual costs of these projects. A detailed analysis of all activities involved in the project has been carried out and is presented .The proposed methodology, which is based upon the analysis of past data obtained from the Villa Grande for the period 2007-2010 is presented. The methodology has been incorporated into a computer module, which integrates the concept of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the current estimating system. The following research includes a description of the algorithm used in ANN, as well as an assessment of past data obtained, performed over the period of the study. The methodology of Artificial neural networks now are used in many fields. They have become well established as viable, multipurpose, robust computational methodologies with solid theoretic support and with strong potential to be effective in any discipline, especially in construction. For example, neural networks can extract new information from raw data, build computer models that are useful for decision-making, and aid in the distribution of resource expertise. They also describe good training, validation, and testing techniques, and discuss measurements of performance and reliability, including the use of bootstrap methods to obtain confidence intervals. Because it is possible to predict outcomes for individual patients with a neural network A new approach to Resource management methodology is presented which optimizes the total cost of the project with the aid of artificial neural networks (ANNs). The methodology allows solute transport simulations, usually the main computational component of management models, to be run in parallel. The ANN technology, inspired by neurobiological theories of massive interconnection and parallelism, has been successfully applied to a variety of optimization problems.

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In this new approach, optimal management solutions are found by first training an ANN to predict the outcome of the flow and transport code, and then using the trained ANN to search through many pumping realizations to find an optimal one for successful remediation. The behavior of complex scenarios with spatially variable parameters. The input of the ANN characterizes the different realizations of pumping, with each input indicating the pumping level of a well. The output is capable of characterizing the objectives and constraints of the optimization, such as attainment of regulatory goals, value of cost functions and time. The supervised learning algorithm of back propagation was used to train the network. Once trained, the ANN begins a search through various realizations of pumping patterns to determine whether or not they will be successful. The search is directed by a simple genetic algorithm. The resulting management solutions are consistent with those resulting from a more conventional optimization technique, which combines solute transport modeling and nonlinear programming. The results suggest that the ANN approach has the following advantages over the conventional technique for the test remediations from the optimization problems. From the results there is a saving of Rs.27, 72,324.75(Twenty seven lakhs,seventy two thousand, three hundred and twenty four) for the total project. There are 25no of Villas to be built in 2011, the amount saved by using neural network approach is Rs. 27, 72,324.75 for 25 villas.If this model would have been used in the initial stages of construction there would be a total saving of Rs.1,09,78,406.01(One crore,nine lakhs seventy eight thousand,four hunderad and six) for all Ninety nine villas.

Contents
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Abstract List of figures List if Tables Nomenclature Title Page No 1 1 1 2 3 4 5

Chapter 1

Introduction
1.1 General 1.2 Resource Constraints 1.3 Project Constraints 1.4 Resource Modeling 1.5 Objective of study 1.6 Organization of the report

Chapter 2

Literature review
2.1 General 2.2 History of Neural Networks 2.3 Applications of Neural Networks 2.3.1 Education 2.3.2 Business 2.3.3 Financial 2.3.4 Medical 2.3.5 Scientific 6 6 11 12 12 14 14 16

Methodology and model Development Chapter 3

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3.1 General 3.2 Neural Networks and standard statistical Methodology 3.3 Programming and Using Neural Network Algorithms
3.4 Artificial Neural Network model

18 18 20 20 24 27 28 29 29 30

3.5 Network Development 3.6 Types of Problems in Neural Networks 3.7 Training Data 3.8 Network Structure 3.9 Learning process by Neural networks 3.10 Model Development

Chapter 4

Case study and Discussion of Results

4.1 General 4.2 Components of the project 4.3 Results and Discussions 36 36 49

Chapter 5

Summary and conclusions

5.1 Summary 5.2 Conclusions 5.3 Specific conclusions 5.4 Scope of Future work 52 52 53 53

References 54 Acknowledgement List of Figures

56

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Figure

Description

Page No

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3

The Perceptron with their inputs output and their weightages Biological model of a Neuron Climbing the Mountain Neural Network with Gray Layer Block diagram of a two hidden layer multiplayer perceptron Learning of a Neural Network model Demonstration of a neural network used within an Optical character Recognition (OCR)application

7 8 8 11 22 23

24 25 26

3.4 3.5

Flowchart showing the process a neural network model works A network model of a neuron with its input weights, summer and Output function

3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

Data grid sheet displaying the various input estimates in Neuroshell Variation of total costs from 2007-2010 The various input costs from 2007-2010 Selection of various inputs from 2007-2010 Various Predicted values for year 2010-2011 Learning process generated by 150 hidden neurons Various input costs and their weightages Comparison of actual and predicted costs Variation of costs for each month for the year 2011

31 41 42 43 44 44 45 47 49

List of Tables

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Figure

Description

Page No

3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

Classification algorithm types ranked for different data sets by error rate Average monthly temperature during the period of execution of project The total costs of project during the year 2007-2008. The total costs of project during the year 2008-2009. The total costs of project during the year 2009-2010 (Till august 2010) Percentage difference in actual and predicted costs for year 2011. Neural Network factors and their data type The Difference in actual and predicted costs for each Villa

19 37 38 38 40 48 49 50

Nomenclature

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AN ANN ASCII CSF LMS MLP NN OCR OUT

SAS

Artificial Network Artificial Neural Network American standard code for information interchange Comma separated file Least Mean Squares Multi linear programming Neural Network Optical character recognition Output Statistical analytical software