Professional Documents
Culture Documents
StateForecasts
GrossStateProduct Annual%change 11/12f 12/13f NSW 2.3 2.8 VIC 2.0 2.3 QLD 4.0 4.8 SA 2.0 3.0 WA 5.3 4.8 TAS 1.3 1.8 Australia 2.9 3.3 Source:NABEconomics
UnemploymentRate Averagerate 11/12f 12/13f 5.3 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.3 4.1 3.8 6.2 6.3 5.3 5.1
Themultispeedeconomypersists TheDecember2011NABQuarterlyBusinessSurveyconfirmedthatAustralianbusinessconditionsstrengthenedintothe finalmonthsof2011andweresuggestiveofaneconomygrowingclosetotrend.Muchoftheimprovementinconditions occurredinthepoorperformingindustries,includingretail,wholesale,constructionandmanufacturing,whichappeared tohavebeguntobenefitfromthetwoRBAratecutsinNovemberandDecemberlastyear.Whilethedisparitybetween sector performance that has become a feature of the Australian economy over the past two years narrowed in the quarter, it remained sizable. Various sectors affect state conditions differently and so the multispeed nature of the Australian economy is also apparent across states. The December quarter survey showed that conditions in WA continued to be supported by the relative strength in the mining sector, despite mining conditions softening in the quarter(onthebackofweakeningcommodityprices).ConditionswerealsorelativelysolidinQueenslandAustralias secondlargestminingstatewhichislikelytohavereflectedthegradualrecoveryincoalmineproductionfollowingthe floods,whichofficialdatahaveconfirmedcontinuedintolate2011.Tasmaniacontinuedtounderperformallotherstates intheDecemberquarter,althoughcareshouldbetakenwheninterpretingthisdataduetosmallsamplesize. Graph 2 Graph 1
NAB Business Conditions Index
Net bal
Net bal
30 20 10 0
NSW
30 20 10 0
20 10
SA
20 10 0 -10
NSW Victoria Tasmania**
0 -10
-10
SA
-10 -20
Tasmania**
-30 -40
2010
2005
2008
2011
* Deviation from national average since Sep 1989. Data are seasonally adjusted. ** Data have been trended using 5-term Henderson trend (due to small sample size) Source: NAB
Consistent with a general improvement in current state conditions in the December quarter, business confidence also strengthenedacrossstates.However,thedegreeofconfidencewasvariedacrossstates,withsentimentinQueensland thestrongest,whileconfidenceinTasmaniaandVictoriawasquitesubdued. Householdslimitspendinginthefaceofwaveringconfidence Realstatefinaldemand(SFD)inAustraliaroseby4.5percentovertheyeartoDecember2011.Despitethesolidoutcome overtheyear,thequarterlyprofileshowedafairlysubduedoutcomeintheDecemberquarter,followinganacceleration in activity over the first three quarters of the year. Through the year, spending growth was strongest in WA, Victoria, QueenslandandNSW,whileitwassoftestinSAandTasmania.ConsistentwiththetrendinSFD,householdspending growthhasalsorecoveredsincetheGFCbutisrelativelysoftwhencomparedtohistory.
3 Graph 3
Real State Final Demand
Year-ended percentage change %
WA
Graph 4
Real Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Year-ended percentage change % 15 %
Queensland
% 9
WA SA
15
Queensland
10
Victoria
10 6 5 3 0
NSW SA Victoria
5 0 -5
Tasmania
0
NSW Tasmania
-10 2004
-3
The average consumer has become increasingly cautious since the onset of the global financial crisis, limiting their consumptionofdiscretionaryitemsinordertohelpdeleveragetheirbalancesheet.Thisisevidencedbythesharpfallin consumption spending across the states just prior to the GFC, when household saving behaviour was significantly affectedbythedestructionofwealththatoccurredthroughlossesinfinancialmarkets.Risinginterestratesondeposits alsoprovidedaddedincentivesforhouseholdstosave.Whilethereareanumberofmeasurementissuesassociatedwith thecalculationofsavingrates,therecentupwardtrendinaggregatesavingsappearstohavebeenbroadbasedacrossall states(seeGraph).Relativetogrossdisposableincome,theriseinhouseholdsavinghasbeenparticularlypronouncedin WA.ThisreflectsdisposableincomegrowthinWAhouseholds(averaging12percentperyearsince2007)significantly outpacinggrowthinconsumptionexpenditure(averaging4percentperyearsince2007). Graph 5
Household Savings*
Proportion of gross disposable income %
WA
% 20
NSW Victoria
20
15
15
10
Queensland SA
10
5
Tasmania
0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
* Includes consumption of fixed capital Sources: ABS; NAB
PublicSectorInvestmentUnwinds
The transition from public demand to private demand continues. This is clearly evident in the pattern of capital investmentgrowthacrossthestates.WhensiftingoutthecomponentsofcapitalinvestmentwithintheSFDstatistics,we findthatpubliccapitalinvestmentacrossthestateshasgenerallyfallenastheCommonwealthfiscalstimulushasbeen woundback.ThispullbackismostapparentinQueensland,SAandTasmania.Reflectingthemultispeednatureofthe economyandthecashedupWAgovernment,publiccapitalinvestmentactuallyincreasedinWAin2011,up4.2percent in2011.Whilethepullbackinotherstateshasbeendramatic,publicinvestmentasashareofSFDstillremainshighby historicalstandards.
GrossFixedCapitalFormation2011 Yearendedpercentagechange NSW VIC QLD SA Private 1.3 0.6 28.4 5.7 Public 7.8 2.0 14.3 19.5 Total 1.0 0.1 16.3 1.3 Sources:ABS;NAB
@2012 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937
4 Capital investment has expanded rapidly over much of the past decade, resulting in a broadbased increase in capital expenditureasashareofstatefinaldemandacrosstheAustralianstates(seeGraph).Morerecently,capitalexpenditure hasrisenevenmorestronglyinWAandQueensland,heraldingthestartofthelongawaitedmininginvestmentboom. The mining sector in WA currently accounts for almost 26 per cent of total capital expenditure in Australia, while the Queensland mining industry is contributing around 14 per cent, its highest share in recent history (see Graph). The increased capital intensiveness of the mining sector has come at the expense of the manufacturing sector, which has beendiminishingasashareofAustralianproductionforanumberofdecadesinresponsetotheprogressivedismantling oftariffprotection.Nonetheless,theoutlookforbusinessinvestmentremainsverystronglargelyduetoinvestmentin theresourcessectorwhichshouldcontinuetosupportgrowthformanyyearstocome. Graph 6
Capital Expenditure*
Proportion of state final demand %
WA
Graph 7
Capital Expenditure by Industry by State*
Proportion of total Australian capital expenditure, annual sum % 40 % 25
WA
Mining
Manufacturing
% 25 20 15
40
Queensland
20 30
SA
30
15 20
NSW
20
NSW Victoria Tasmania
10
Queensland SA Victoria
10
10
5 0
SubstantialbusinessInvestmentunderwayinWA ThenonresidentialinvestmentpipelineexpandedacrossAustraliaintheSeptemberquarter2011,largelyreflectingan influxofprojectscommencinginQueenslandandWAAustraliaslargestminingstates.Consistentwiththis,workyetto bedoneasaproportionofannualworkdoneincreasedsolidly,whileitdeclinedinWAduetothelargeamountofwork completedinthisstateintheSeptemberquarter.Nonetheless,thenonresidentialinvestmentpipelineinWAremains very elevated at around two years long, with around more than half of this investment representing a significant proportion of the $43 billion Gorgon LNG project which is currently underway. Capital expenditure data confirm that miningfirmshavesubstantialinvestmentplansovercomingyears.Whenconstructed,theseprojectswilladdtoexport capacityforLNG,coal,ironoreandotherenergyandmineralscommodities.Thisprocessofreallocationislikelytobe,in part,responsibleforthenonresidentialinvestmentpipelineinNSW,VictoriaandSAremainingbelowprecrisislevels. Graph 8
Non-residential Investment Pipeline*
Work yet to be done as a proportion of annual work done
Yrs Yrs
2.0
WA
2.0 1.6
Queensland
1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2003 2006 2009 2002 2005 2008 2011
* Calculated as the sum of non-residential building and engineering construction Sources: ABS; NAB
0.0 2000
5 Disparityinnetinternationaltradewidening Reflectingtheincomeeffectsoftheresourcesboom,nominalnetinternationalexportsinWAhavecontinuedtoeasily outperformtherestofthecountry.In2011,thevalueofWAnetinternationalexportsrosealmost20percenton2010 levels,withthenetinternationaltradebalanceintheDecemberquartersitting$9.7billionaboveitsprevious2009peak. Elsewhere,SAappearstohavereceivedasizeableincomeboost(althoughthescaleisdwarfedbyWA),withnominalnet internationalexportsincreasingmorethan65percentin2011buoyedbythesolidperformanceofitsagriculturalexports. InQueensland,netinternationalexportshavecontinuedtorecoverfromtheimpactsoftheearly2011floods,although are not yet back to their preflood levels. However, net international trade in Queensland is likely to remain under pressureoverthenearterm.AhighAUDhashittourismreasonablyhardandthishasshownupintermsofQueesnlands servicestrade,whichfellalmost7percentin201011.Withservicestradecontinuingtoremainweak(seeGraph10),this islikelytodetractfromfurthergrowthinQueenslandsmerchandiseexports. InVictoriaandNSW,thetradebalanceformerchandiseexportsinnominaltermshasgenerallydeterioratedsincelate 20101. Services trade, which makes up around a third of total exports in Victoria and NSW, is also likely to have deterioratedinthesestates.Balanceofpaymentsdatasuggeststhat,in2011Australianservicesexportscontractedby almost7percentandservicesexportsintheDecemberquarterwereattheirlowestlevelsince2005withmuchofthe decline coming from travel services. With a strong AUD and ongoing weakness in international student enrolments, VictoriaandNSWareunlikelytoreceiveanyliftingrowthfromnettradeoverthemediumterm. Graph 10 Graph 9
Nominal Net Exports
$ 20000 15000 WA 10000 Queensland 5000 0 Victoria -5000 -10000 NSW -15000 -15000 1985 1989 1994 1998 2002 2006 2011 1988 1993 1997 2001 2005 2010 Source: ABS, NAB Group Economics SA 5000 0 10000 25,000 Other Services 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Rural 4,000 3,000 Transport 2,000 1,000 $ 20000 15000 $m 40,000 Travel 35,000 30,000 Commodities 5,000 7,000 6,000
Tasmania
-5000 -10000
Other
0 0 1985 1989 1994 1998 2002 2006 2011 1988 1993 1997 2001 2005 2010
Labourmarketconditionssoften Australiahas enjoyed a trend decline in the rate of unemploymentsince the early1990s, whichhas been fairly broad based across the states. Prior to the financial crisis and during phase one of the mining investment boom unemploymentratesinbothWAandQueenslanddippedbelow4percent(seeGraph).Consistentwiththeseverylow rates of unemployment, the NAB Quarterly Business Survey shows that, during this time, the availability of suitable labourwasanincreasinglysignificantconstraintonfirmsproduction,particularlyinWAandQueensland(seeGraph).In late2008,Australiasunemploymentraterosesharplyandlabourbecamemorefreelyavailable,asshownbyasignificant decline in the difficulty of finding suitable labour. The labour market subsequently began to tighten from a low base, especially in WA. More recently however, the number of firms reporting labour availability as an issue has generally levelledoff,whichisconsistentwiththecurrentsoftnessinemploymentgrowth.Giventhesoftoutlookforthelabour market the unemployment rate is expected to remain close to 5 per cent over the remainder of this year labour availabilitymayremainlessofaconcernforbusinessesinthenearterm.
Itshouldbenotedthatthesestatisticsrepresentmerchandisegoodsonly,andNSWandVictoriaarenaturalimporters becauseoftheirrelativelylargeports.
@2012 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937
6 Graph 11
Unemployment Rate
Trend %
Queensland
TAS
Graph 12
Labour Shortages
Availability of suitable labour a significant constraint to production % 8 % 50
Queensland
SA
% 50
WA
8
NSW
40 6 30 4 20 2 10
NSW
40 30 20
SA
6
Victoria
4
WA
Victoria
0 1998
While there is a notable disparity in employment growth across states, the variation in unemployment rates of the individualstateshasbeenlessmarked.Thishasinpartreflectedtheexpansionofjobvacancyratesinstatesthathave experienced more rapid employment growth, particularly in WA and Queensland, which has helped to reduce the tightnessinlabourmarketconditionsinthosestates.TheunemploymentrateinWAisrelativelylowataround4percent, whileitishighestinTasmania(6percent)andQueensland(5percent).Whiletherehasbeenaslightpickupinnet interstate migration (and net overseas migration) in WA in response to relativelystrong labour market conditions, the flowofnetmigrationacrosstheotherstatesappearstohavebeenbroadlyunaffectedbythetightnessinlabourmarket conditions since mid 2010 (see Graph). During the past decade there has been a general decline in net interstate migrationtoQueensland,whilethenetoutflowofpersonsfromNSWhasfallenandVictoriaisnowbenefitingfroma (marginally)positiveinflow.Netoverseasmigrationhasdeclinedacrossallstatessincethebeginningof2009,withthe relativelyhighAustraliandollarandchangedmigrationpolicieslikelytohavediscouragedsomeoverseasarrivals.
Flow of persons
Graph 13
Annual Net Interstate Migration
Queensland
Flow of persons
40000
40000
20000
20000
Victoria
0
WA
0
SA
-20000 -20000
-40000
-40000
NSW
-60000 1982 -60000 1988 1994 2000 2006 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011
Wagepressurescontained,fornow JustpriortotheGFC,wagesgrowthwasunsustainablyhighacrossallstatesparticularlyinWAastheeconomywas expanding faster than the ability of the labour market to adjust, underpinning a rapid acceleration in inflation (see Graphs).ImmediatelyfollowingtheGFC,wagesgrowtheasedsignificantlyasaresultofthesharpdeteriorationinlabour marketconditions.WhilewagepressuresreemergedreasonablyswiftlyduringthepostGFCrecoveryphase,theybegan toretreatinmid2011,inlinewithsofteninglabourmarketconditions.Wagepressuresremainaconcernforthemining states (Western Australia and Queensland), where a significant amount of investment is expected to come online at a veryrapidpacebuttheriskofhigherwagesgrowthoutsideofminingappearstohavelessened. Consumer price inflation has trended within a close range across all states, despite notable variations in spending and consumptiongrowth.InflationarypressuresappearfairlywellcontainedacrossAustraliaatpresent,largelyreflectingthe broadbasedmoderationinpricesasaresultoftheappreciationoftheAustraliandollar,aswellastheabilityoflabourto movefreelyacrossstates.Giventherelativesoftnessinthelabourmarketatpresent,whichiskeepingwagepressures low,priceinflationisexpectedremainrelativelysoftovermostof2012.However,thereissomeriskthatwageandprice growth will pick up over coming years, as business investment strengthens, the exchange rate depreciates and labour marketconditionsimprove.
@2012 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937
7 Graph 14
Wage Price Index
Year-ended percentage change %
Perth
Graph 15
Consumer Price Index
Year-ended percentage change % %
Brisbane Perth
% 5 4 3 2
Sydney Adelaide Tasmania
5 5 4 4 3 2
5
Brisbane Sydney
3
Melbourne
Tasmania Adelaide
3 1
1
Melbourne
2 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Sources: ABS; NAB
Stategovernmentfiscalpositionsdeteriorating ThefiscalpositionsofStateGovernmentshavegenerallydeterioratedsinceourlastStateEconomicUpdate.According tothe201112midyearfinancialupdatesoftheStateTreasuries,allstatesexceptforVictoriaandWAareexpectingto reportanoperatingdeficitin201112.DespiteeconomicconditionsdeterioratingbetweentheirBudgetsandmidyear updates, NSW and Queensland revised up their estimated 201112 net operating balances for 201112. Driving the improvementinNSWspositionwasthepullingforwardofaround$703millioninroadfundingfrom201213.Similarly, some expenses have been pushed back until 201213, meaning that the underlying budget position hasnt actually improved.The201213netoperatingpositionwasreviseddown$613million.InQueensland,thenetoperatingbalance for 201112 was revised up $1.2 billion due largely to a further advance payment for the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements from the Australian government. As such, this helps explain much of the large downward revisioninQueenslandsoperatingbalancein201213.Incontrast,WA,SAandTasmaniareviseddowntheirestimated netoperatingbalanceswhileVictoriasoperatingbalanceremainedbroadlyunchangedfromBudgetestimates. In 201213, all states except Victoria and WA are forecasting operating deficits while the fiscal positions of all states except Victoria were revised down from Budget estimates. However, Victorias fiscal outlook does look somewhat optimistic. Its housing market is among the weakest in the country and transactions have dropped sharply. The fall in stampdutyandlandtaxrevenuecouldalonepushVictoriaintoanoperatingdeficitin201112and201213.Underpinning the general weakness in state fiscal positions has been the impact of slowerthanexpected growth in the overall GST poolreflectingthesluggishconsumersectorandsignsthatgreatersharesofconsumptionexpenditurehavegonetoGST exemptgoodsandservices.Similarly,theeconomicindicatorsthatdrivestaterevenuestreams(suchaspropertyprices andsales,wagesandhoursworkedandcommodityprices)havegenerallyweakenedoverthepastsixmonthsorso.This islikelytoprovidefurtherdownsiderisktothefiscalpositionsofstategovernmentsandwecouldverywellseefurther downwardrevisionswhenstategovernmentsbeginreleasingtheir201213Budgets. Graph 16 Net Operating Balance
$m 1000 $m 1000
-1000
-2000
-2000
-3000
-3000
-4000
-4000
-5000 NSW
Source: State Treasuries
@2012 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937
8 Statehousingmarketsweakening Weakereconomicgrowth,financialmarketuncertainty,asluggishconsumersectorandweakerlabourmarketconditions sawadownturninAustraliashousingmarketthrough2011.IntheyeartoDecember2011,housepricesacrossallcapital citiesfell,withaveragecapitalcityestablishedhousepricesfalling4.8percent.Initialweaknessinthehousingmarket camefromBrisbaneandPerth,howevermorerecentlyMelbourneandAdelaidehavefollowed,declining6.1and6.4per centrespectively.Incontrast,Sydneyshousingmarket,whichhadmuchmoremodestgainsleadinguptothecurrent downturn,hasproventobequiteresilientwithhousepricesdeclining2.7percentintheyeartoDecember. Importantlyforthehousingmarket,mortgagearrearshavenottickedupinanymajorway.Whiletheyhaveincreased, they still remain below 1 per cent of total onbalance sheet loans. The upshot of this is that there is no evidence of widespread forced sales. Vendors appear to be holding on to properties for longer which is largely reflected in falling auctionclearanceratesaswellasanincreaseindaysonmarket.Similarly,overalltransactionshavepulledbackoverthe pastyearwiththesharpestfallsevidentinSydney,MelbourneandBrisbane(seeGraph).Inotherwords,thecurrentpull back in the housing market is largely a cyclical phenomenon. Economic and labour market conditions have not deterioratedtothepointwhereforcedsalesaredrivingmarketconditionsandassuchvendorshavebeenholdingonto propertiesratherthansellingatheavilydiscountedprices. Graph 17 Graph 18 Established House Transfers House Price Index
Year-ended percentage change % 50 Brisbane 40 30 20 10 0 Sydney -10 2000 2003 2006 2009 2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: ABS, NAB
20,000 Melbourne
12,000
Perth 15,000
8,000
Sydney
30
Adelaide
10,000
4,000
Brisbane
Hobart
5,000 2002
0
2005 2008 2011 2004 2007 2010 Source: ABS, NAB
Akeyfactorthathashelpedtoexplaintheweakeninghousingmarketsince2010hasbeentheweakpopulationgrowth evidentsincethen.Populationgrowthhasslowedtolessthan1.5percentayearfromtheheadydaysofgrowthinexcess of2percentin2008.Atthesametime,thepaceofdwellingcompletionshaspickedupacrosssomepartsofthecountry. This is most evident in Victoria, where a sharp increase in dwelling construction since 2009 saw increased volumes of propertycomeonlinejustaspopulationgrowthwaspullingback.InQueensland,recentdwellingconstructionactivity hasbeenrelativelyweak,althoughthemarketdoesneedtoabsorbtheoverbuildevidentinthesoutheastpriortothe economicdownturn.Incontrast,investmentgrowthinNSWhasremainedrelativelyweakwhencomparedtopopulation, helpingtoshieldthemarketfromthecurrentdownturn. Onamorepositivenote,itappearsthatgrowthinrealrentspointstosometentativesignsofrecoveryinthehousing market. Annual growth in real rents generally improved in the December quarter, although growth was broadly flat. Brisbane recorded growth in real rents for the first time in a year while growth in Sydneys rents remains strongest, reflecting a lack of construction activity evident since 2003. In Hobart, growth in real rents has eased while we expect Melbournesrentalmarkettofollowgiventhelargeincreaseindwellingcompletionssince2009.
0.35 0.30 Qld 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2000 NSW Vic SA WA
8 6 4 2 0 Hobart -2 -4 -6
2003 2006 2009 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: ABS, NAB
Despitethesetentativesigns,however,expectationsofweakerpricesovertheneartermremain.AccordingtotheNAB Residential Property Survey, respondents were generally expecting further weakness in the housing market over the comingtwelvemonths.In2012,respondentsexpectedhousepricestofallby0.4percent.Reflectinganoversupplyinthe Victorianmarket,surveyrespondentsappearedmostbearishonVictoria,withexpectationsthatVictorianhouseprices willfall1.3percentintheyeartoDecember.Similarly,weakconditionsintheQueenslandandSAmarketssawsurvey respondentsexpectingfallsof1.2and1percent,respectively.NSWisexpectedtobethestrongestmarket,reflectingthe underlyingshortageandsolidrentalgrowth,withexpectationsofpricegrowthof0.8percentwhileexpectationsaround WAremainbroadlyflat. Graph 21 House Price Expectations
4 % 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Jun-11 Jun-12 Sep-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Expectations
Australia
Source: NAB
Victoria
NSW
Qld
SA/NT
Compositionofproduction Whencomparingeconomicconditionsacrossstates,itisimportanttobeawareofthevaryingcontributionofindustry sectorstoeacheconomy(seeTable).Themostnotabledisparityisfortheminingsector,whichcontributesalmostone thirdofallproductioninWAand8percentinQueenslandbutmakesonlyamarginalcontributioninVictoria,Tasmania, NSW and SA. Similarly, the NSW and Victorian economies are more heavily dependant on finance & insurance and property&businessservicesthantheotherstates,whileQueenslandandWAarethemostdependantonconstruction.
Compositionofproduction
Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Construction WholesaleTrade RetailTrade Finance&Insurance Property&Business Other Source:ABS NSW 2 3 9 6 5 4 15 13 43 VIC 3 3 10 7 5 5 12 14 41 2010/11ShareofStateProduction(%) QLD SA WA 3 6 1 8 4 29 8 11 6 10 7 12 5 4 3 6 5 4 7 9 5 10 9 10 42 43 29 TAS 8 1 10 8 3 7 8 7 49 Australia 3 8 9 8 4 5 10 12 41
10 Shareofeconomicactivity WAhassteadilyincreaseditsshareofAustralianeconomicactivitysincethemiddleofthe2000s,fromjustunder13per centtomorethan14percent.MuchofthisgainappearstohavecomeattheexpenseofNSW,whoseshareofeconomic activity has fallen from more than 33 per cent to less than 32 per cent. In nominal terms, these changes are more profound,withWAmakingupmorethan15percentofthenationaleconomy.Giventhecapitalintensityofthemining boomandthatWAspopulationgrowthhasnotmatchedtheincreaseinincomes,WAGDIpercapitahasballoonedin recentyears,withthedisparityinpercapitaincomeswideningsignificantly.In201011,WArealGDIpercapitawasmore than$93,000,athirdhigherthanthenationalaverageandalmostdoublethatofTasmania. Graph 23 Graph 22 Real Gross Domestic Income per Capita Share of Real GDP
% %
$ 90,000 $ 90,000
NSW
30 15
WA
80,000 70,000 80,000 70,000
WA Vic
20 10
Qld
60,000 60,000
Qld
10 5
SA NSW
50,000 40,000
SA Tas
Vic Tas
0 1989/90
30,000 1991/92
1997/98
2003/04
2009/10
1995/96
2001/02
2007/08
11
Global Markets Research - Wholesale Banking Peter Jolly Head of Markets Research Robert Henderson Chief Economist Markets - Australia Spiros Papadopoulos Senior Economist Markets David de Garis Senior Economist Markets New Zealand Tony Alexander Stephen Toplis Craig Ebert Doug Steel London Nick Parsons Tom Vosa Gavin Friend
+(61 2) 9237 1406 +(61 2) 9237 1836 +(61 3) 8641 0978 +(61 3) 8641 3045
+(64 4)474 6744 +(64 4) 474 6905 +(64 4) 474 6799 +(64 4) 474 6923
Head of Research, UK/Europe & Global Head of FX Strategy Head of Market Economics UK/Europe Markets Strategist UK/Europe Foreign Exchange +800 9295 1100 +800 842 3301 +800 64 642 222 +800 747 4615 +1 800 125 602 +(65) 338 0019
+(44 20) 7710 2993 +(44 20) 7710 1573 +(44 20) 7710 2155 Fixed Interest/Derivatives +(61 2) 9295 1166 +(61 3) 9277 3321 +800 64 644 464 +(44 20) 7796 4761 +1877 377 5480 +(65) 338 1789
DISCLAIMER: [While care has been taken in preparing this material,] National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937) does not warrant or represent that the information, recommendations, opinions or conclusions contained in this document (Information) are accurate, reliable, complete or current. The Information has been prepared for dissemination to professional investors for information purposes only and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. The Information does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the Information should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the Information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professionals or experts. To the extent permissible by law, the National shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the Information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such Information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise). If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, the National limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. The National, its affiliates and employees may hold a position or act as a price maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed within this document or act as an underwriter, placement agent, adviser or lender to such issuer. UK Disclaimer: So far as the law and the FSA Rules allow, National Australia Bank Limited (the Bank) disclaims any warranty or representation as to the accuracy or reliability of the information and statements in this document. The Bank will not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or damage suffered from relying on this document. This document does not purport to contain all relevant information. Recipients should not rely on its contents but should make their own assessment and seek professional advice relevant to their circumstances. The Bank may have proprietary positions in the products described in this document. This document is for information purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation nor is it the intention of the Bank to create legal relations on the basis of the information contained in it. No part of this document may be reproduced without the prior permission of the Bank. This document is intended for Investment Professionals (as such term is defined in The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001) and should not be passed to any other person who would be defined as a private customer by the rules of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK or to any person who may not have experience of such matters. Issued by National Australia Bank Limited A.C.N. 004 044 937, 88 Wood Street, London EC2V 7QQ. Registered in England BR1924. Head Office: 500 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Victoria. Incorporated with limited liability in the state of Victoria, Australia. Regulated by the FSA in the UK. U.S DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries ("NAB"). If it is distributed in the United States, such distribution is by nabSecurities, LLC which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this information wishes further information or desires to effect transactions in any securities described herein should call or write to nabSecurities, LLC, 28th Floor, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167 (or call (877) 377-5480). The information contained herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable and no guarantees, representations or warranties are made as to its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose. Any opinions or estimates expressed in this information is our current opinion as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice. The principals of nabSecurities, LLC or NAB may have a long or short position or may transact in the securities referred to herein or hold or transact derivative instruments, including options, warrants or rights with securities, or may act as a market maker in the securities discussed herein and may sell such securities to or buy from customers on a principal basis. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities described herein or for any other action. It is intended for the information of clients only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere.