Research Report GCISC-RR-04

Validation of Regional Climate Model PRECIS over South Asia

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Sajjad Saeed, M. Munir Sheikh Arshad M. Khan

June 2009

Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan

Published by: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad-44000 Pakistan

ISBN: 978-969-9395-02-4

@GCISC

Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.

Published in: June 2009

This Report may be cited as follows: Saeed S., M. M. Sheikh and A.M. Khan, (2009), Validation of Regional Climate Model PRECIS over South Asia, GCISC-RR-04, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

CONTENTS

Foreword Preface List of Tables List of Figures List of Acronyms 1. Introduction 2. Description of Regional Climate Model PRECIS
2.1 Introduction to PRECIS 2.2 Atmospheric Dynamics 2.3 Physical Parameterization 2.3.1 Large scale Clouds and Precipitation scheme 2.3.2 Convective and Radiation schemes 2.3.3 Boundary Layer and the Land - Surface Schemes

i ii iii iv
vi

1 2
2 2 2

2
3 4
4 4 4 5 5

3. Data and Experimental Design

3. ] Data used 3.2 Experimental Design 3.3 Model Spin-up 3.4 ReM horizontal resolution

4. Seasonal Simulations
4.1 Seasonal Simulations of Precipitation 4.1.1 Winter Season (DJFM) 1992 4.1.2 Summer Season (JJAS) 1992 4.2 Seasonal Simulations of Temperature 4.2.1 Winter Season (DJFM) 1992 4.2.2 Summer Season (JJAS) 1992

6
6 6 7 8 8 10 11

5. Simulation of Extreme Precipitation Event of 1992 over Pakistan

5.1. An overview of Extreme Precipitation Event of 1992 5.2. Application of PRECIS 5.3. Discussion

11 11 15

6. Simulations of Super Cyclonic Storm during 1999 in the Bay of Bengal 15 6.1 Overview of 1999 super cyclone in Bay of Bengal 6.2 Experimental Design 6.3 Results and Discussions
7. Conclusions 8. Acknowledgements 7. References

15 16 17
20 21 22

FOREWORD

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2002 as a dedicated research centre for climate change and other global change related studies, at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, NL HL SF, the then Special Advisor to Chief Executive of Pakistan. The Centre has since been engaged in research on past and projected climate change in different sub regions of Pakistan; corresponding impacts on the country's key sectors; in particular Water and Agriculture; and adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts. The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and was supported in part by APN (Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research), Kobe, Japan, through its CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled "Enhancement of national capabilities in the application of simulation models for assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and agricultural production", awarded to GCISC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). It is hoped that the report will provide useful information to national planners and policymakers as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan. The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning Commission, and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed, Rector, National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning Group, APN, throughout the course of this work are gratefully acknowledged.

Dr. Arshad M. Khan Executive Director, GCISC

PREFACE

Regional Climate Models (RCMs), at present, are widely used by the scientific community to study the climatic features of a region at a high resolution around ~ 50 x 50 Km. Because of their fine resolution compared to the coarse resolution (~ 300 Km x 300 Km) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the consideration given by them to local topography and land-use features, the regional models can simulate realistically the precipitation events, the monsoon depressions and even the cyclonic storms. The main purpose of this study is to test the capability of the Regional Climate Model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies). The "model was developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, UK. In this report, the synoptic events namely winter and summer monsoon precipitation during 1992 and a super cyclonic storm during 1999 in the Bay of Bengal are studied. The Monsoon depression of September 1992, which developed over Bay of Bengal, and brought, in its wake, a huge catastrophic flood in the Jhelum River is also studied. The PRECIS model simulated reasonably well the structure and evolution of synoptic events, large scale monsoon circulations as well the individual extreme precipitation events and a super cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. Apart from showing some biases in temperature and precipitation, the model captured the climate features of the studied events reasonably well.

ii

List of Tables
Table 1 Description of the Parameterization schemes and other physical options used by PRECIS
Table 2 Area averaged seasonal precipitation (mm/day) during the year 1992 over five sub regions, BIAS, Spatial Correlation coefficient between models simulated and CRU observed precipitation Table 3 Area Averaged seasonal temperature (C) during 1992, BIAS between model simulated and CRU observed temperature is also given for the selected five sub regions Table 4 Simulated daily Track Error of Monsoon depression during September 1992 Table 5 Observed and model simulated mean sea level pressure at the centre of the storm. Observed environmental sea level pressure was 1008 hPa Table 6 Daily track error in km between observed and model simulated positions of the storm

11

15

18

20

iii

List of Figures
Model Domain and topography with contour interval of 500 m. Regions with height greater than 500 m are shaded Simulated and observed winter season (DJFM) precipitation (mm/day) and BIAS between the observed and simulated precipitation during 1992. Sea masking is applied over ocean Simulated and observed summer season (JJAS) precipitation (mm/day) and BIAS between the observed and simulated precipitation during 1992 Observed (solid) and simulated (dashed) precipitation for the year 1992 over the five sub regions Simulated and observed winter season (D1FM) mean temperature (C) during 1992 and BIAS between the observed and simulated temperature Simulated and observed summer season (JJAS) mean temperature (C) during 1992 and BIAS between the observed and simulated temperature Simulated daily mean precipitation intensity distribution over the Jhelum River basin region from September 07-10, 1992 Observed and simulated area averaged daily mean precipitation during September 1992 over Jhelum River basin region Observed and simulated area averaged daily maximum and minimum temperature during September 1992 over Jhelum River basin region The model simulated wind vectors and Geo-potential heights at 500 hpa from September 01-10, 1992 Simulated and Observed PMD track of monsoon depression during Sep. 1992 Model domain and topography for SS simulations Model simulated mean sea level pressure from October 25-30, 1999
5

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

10

Figure 6

10

Figure 7

12

Figure 8

12

Figure 9

13

Figure 10

14

Figure 11

14

Figure 12 Figure 13 (a-f)

16 17

iv

Figure 14 (a-f)

Model simulated surface wind and 24 hours accumulated precipitation from October 25-30, 1999 Model simulated wind flow (speed in knots) at 850 hpa from October 25-30, 1999 Observed and simulated track of Super Cyclone during Oct. 1999

18

Figure 15 (a-f)

19

Figure 16

20

List of Acronyms

Most of the Acronyms and abbreviation, wherever they appear in text, are defined.

APN CRU CCN C0 2 DJFM ECMWF ERA GCISC GCM JJAS MOSES MSLP Nd NWP N.W.F.P 03 PDF PMD
PRECIS RCM RH

Asia Pacific Network for global change research Climate Research Unit Cloud condensation nuclei Carbon dioxide December-January-February-Marh European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast European Re-Analysis Global Change Impact Studies Centre General/Global Circulation Model June-July-August-September Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme Mean sea level pressure Number of cloud droplets Numerical Weather Prediction North West Frontier Province Ozone Probability Distribution Function Pakistan Meteorological Department Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Regional Climate Model Relative Humidity

vi

SC WST

Super cyclone Winter season temperature

vii

1. Introduction
The horizontal resolution of present coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs) is still too coarse (~ 300 x 300 km) to capture the effects of local and regional forcings in areas of complex surface physiography and to provide information suitable for many impact assessment studies. To overcome this problem Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are developed with a higher resolution (around 50 x 50 km) for assessing the climate of a particular region with greater details especially in the regions where forcing due to complex topographical effect or coastlines, or both, regulate the regional distribution of climate variables. High resolution allows for a more precise description of regional topographic forcings due to orography, land-sea contrasts and vegetation characteristics. Consequently, processes strongly forced by topography, such as orographic precipitation and monsoon circulations, improve at increased resolution (Giorgi and Marinucci, 1996). RCMs are widely used to the study the regional climates over different parts of the world (Dickinson et al. 1989, Giorgi et.al 1990, Lui et. al., 1994, Walsh and .McGregor, 1995 Lee et al., 2000, Wang et al., 2003, etc.). The regional climate models are also successfully used to simulate and study the individual heavy precipitation events (e.g., Grong and Wang, 2000) occurred at different locations in the world. Further, Lee et.al., 1998 used the Seoul National University Regional Climate Model (SNUlRCM) to study the summer flooding event of 1998 over East Asia region. Gao et.al., 2002; simulated the changes in the extreme events due to green house gases over the East Asia region by using the regional climate model, RegCM2, and found changes in the temperature, precipitation and storm track in a doubling C02 experiment. The South Asia regional climate is governed not only by the large scale monsoon circulation but also by the mesoscale physical processes as well as a non linear interaction between the large scale and small scale environments. Studies (Houghton et al. 2001) have shown the capability of regional climate models in reproducing interannual variability when driven by good quality driving fields. The (one-way) nested modeling technique has been increasingly applied to climate change studies. This technique consists of using output from GCM simulations to provide initial and driving lateral meteorological boundary conditions for high-resolution RCM with no feedback from RCM to the driving GCM. Regional models have a much finer resolution, allowing them to see small-scale structure in a specific paJi of the world. The regional model can simulate realistically the heavy persistent precipitation spells. The reproducibility of local atmospheric conditions can not be simulated precisely by a much coarser-resolution global circulation model. In this validation study, the regional climate model PRECIS developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, UK is validated 'over South Asia. Winter and summer monsoon precipitation of 1992 is simulated over South Asia to understand the performance of the ReM over this region. The extreme precipitation event of September 1992 over Pakistan and a super cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal during 1999 using the reanalysis data sets of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) are investigated in the study. Section 2 gives a brief description of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model. Section 3 gives an introduction of the data and the experiment design used for the simulation of seasonal precipitation and temperature over South Asia. The results of the seasonal simulations of precipitation and temperature are presented in section 4. Section 5 gives the extreme precipitation event analysis over the Jhelum River basin while the simulations of the super cyclonic storm are given in section 6. The concluding remarks of this validation report are presented in section.

2. Description of Regional Climate Model PRECIS

2.1. Introduction to PRECIS
A detailed description of the PRECIS regional climate model can be found in the Hadley Centre's PRECIS Manuals and workbooks (Jones et. aI, 2004, Wilson et. ai, 2004). The word PRECIS stands for Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies. PRECIS model is based on the atmospheric component of HadCM3 with substantial modifications to the model physics. It is an atmospheric and land surface model of limited area with high resolution (typically 50 km, compared to 250 km in a GCM). Dynamic flow, the atmospheric sulphur cycle, clouds and precipitation, radiative processes, the land surface and deep soil are well represented in the PRECIS model. The model assumes the atmosphere to be in a state of hydrostatic equilibrium and hence vertical motions are diagnosed separately from the equations of state. It has a complete representation of the Coriolis force and employs a regular latitude-longitude grid in the horizontal and a hybrid vertical coordinate. There are 19 vertical levels, the lowest at ~ 50m and the highest at 0.5hpa with terrain following -coordinates ( = pressure/ surface pressure) used for the bottom four levels, purely pressure coordinates for the top three levels and a combination in between. The model equations are solved in the spherical polar coordinates and the latitude-longitude grid is rotated so that the equator lies inside the region of interest in order to obtain quasi-uniform grid box area throughout the region. The horizontal resolution is 0.44 x 0.44 and 0.22 x 0.22, which gives a minimum resolution of ~50 km and ~25km at the equator of the rotated grid, Convective clouds and large scale clouds are treated separately in their formation, precipitation and radiative effects. A mass flux penetrative convective scheme is used with an explicit downdraft and includes the direct impact of vertical convection on momentum. Mixing of convective parcels with environmental air, forced entrainment and detrainment are also considered in PRECIS regional climate model.

2.2. Atmospheric Dynamics

The atmospheric component of the PRECIS model is a hydrostatic version of the full equations, i.e. the atmosphere is assumed to be in a state of hydrostatic equilibrium and hence vertical motions are diagnosed separately from the equation of state. The prognostic variables in the dynamical layer cloud and boundary layer scheme are surface pressure, zonal and meridional wind components (u and v), potential temperature adjusted to allow for the latent heat of cloud water and ice, and water vapor plus liquid and frozen cloud water. An Arakawa B grid is used to improve the accuracy of the split-explicit finite difference scheme.

2.3. Physical Parameterization

2.3.1 Large scale Clouds and Precipitation scheme

Layer cloud cover and cloud water contents (liquid and frozen phases being partitioned by a statistical temperature function) in a grid box are both calculated from a saturation variable, qc, defined as the difference between the total water, qt and the saturation vapor pressure. It is assumed that the subgrid scale distribution of qc can be represented by a symmetrical triangular function. I The critical value of relative humidity (RHcrit)

represents the grid box mean relative humidity (RH) above which clouds begin to form. Values of RHcrit are calculated for each box at every time step to represent the effects of unresolved subgrid scale motions on the distribution of qt within a model grid box. This parameterization is dependent on the standard deviations of the qc with in a model grid box and its eight neighbors in the horizontal and vertical pressure, but has no geophysical or time dependencies. Layer cloud volume is calculated in three equally spaced subgrid box vertical levels by a separate cloud volume calculation in each partition. The horizontal cloud area fraction for the grid box is then taken from the maximum sub-grid value. Cloud water is assumed to be liquid above 0C, frozen below -9C and a mixture in between, the threshold values of cloud liquid water for precipitation formation are 1.0 x 10-3 (kg/kg) over land and 2.0 x 10-5 over sea. Layer clouds can form 'at any level except the top of the stratosphere (level 19). Large scale precipitation from layer cloud is dependent on cloud water content, and allowance made for greater efficiency of precipitation when the cloud is glaciated. Large scale precipitation within a grid box is assumed to fall on 75% of the land surface regardless of layer cloud fraction.
2.3.2 Convective and Radiation schemes

A mass flux penetrative convective scheme (Giorgi et al. 1990) is used with an explicit downdraft and includes the direct impact of vertical convection and momentum. Mixing of convective parcels with environment air and forced entrainments and detrainments are also modeled. Convective precipitation doesn't change phase if the associated latent cooling would take the temperature below freezing point again. The evaporation of convective precipitation is accounted for. Convective precipitation within a grid box is assumed to fall on 65% of land surface, regardless of convective cloud fraction. The threshold values of the cloud liquid water for precipitation are 2 g/kg over land and 0.4 g/kg over sea. The radiation scheme includes the seasonal and diurnal cycles of insulation, computing short wave and long wave fluxes which depend on the temperature, water vapor, Ozone (03), Carbon dioxide (C02) and clouds (liquid and frozen water being treated separately), as well as a package of trace gases (02, N20, CH4 etc). The calculations are split into 6 short wave bands and 8 long wave bands. Cloud overlaps are calculated by the maximum random overlap method, wherein clouds in contiguous layer are assumed to be maximally overlapped, whereas clouds in non-contiguous layer overlap randomly. The model distinguishes between the convective and large scale cloud maximum-random overlap thus maintains vertical coherence of convective clouds. The effective radius of cloud droplets is modeled as a function of cloud water content and droplet number concentration, the later being dependent on the sulphate aerosol concentrations. sulphate aerosols affect the radiation budget of the model via scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation (the direct effect) and changes to the albedo of the clouds (the first indirect effect). The direct effect is calculated separately using Mie theory. The first indirect effect arises from the action of sulphate aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase in the number of CCN increases the number of cloud droplets (Nd), reduces their mean effective radius and thus increases cloud albedo, since clouds with smaller droplets reflect more solar radiation. The value of N d is determined from the concentration of the aerosol particles and is subject to a minimum value, which is prescribed differently over land and over sea to reflect the presence of natural continental CCN (organic aerosols, dust etc.).

2.3.3 Boundary Layer and the Land - Surface Schemes

The boundary layer can occupy up to the five bottom model layers. A first order turbulent mixing scheme is used to vertically mix the conserved thermodynamic variables and momentum. Over land surface characteristics such as vegetation and soil . types are prescribed according to the climatological surface type, but at sea points, the roughness length over open water is computed from local wind speeds. The land surface scheme employed is MOSES (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme). The soil model represents the soil hydrology and thermodynamics using a four layer scheme for both temperature and moisture. It includes the effects of soil water phase change and the influence of water and ice on the thermal and hydraulic properties of the soil. The soil layer has thicknesses from the top 0.1,0.25,0.65 and 2.0 meters. This choice of soil layer thickness is designed to resolve both the diurnal and seasonal cycles with minimal. distortion. Surface runoff and soil drainage are accounted for and surface temperature is diagnosed as a skin temperature rather than being the mean temperature of the top soil layer. A zero heat flux condition is imposed at the base of the soil model to conserve heat within the system. It is assumed to be only one vegetation type and one soil type per grid box. The surface albedo is considered as a function of snow depth, vegetation type and also of the temperature over snow and ice.

3. Data and Experimental Design

3.1. Data used
A regional climate model needs initial and boundary conditions which are provided either from a General Circulation Model or reanalysis data sets. In this study, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are provided from the reanalysis data set ERA 40 of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The ECMWF reanalysis data is available at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 x 2.5 at 06-h interval. The CRU observational data sets developed by the climate research unit of the university of East Anglia are used for seasonal comparison. Also daily observational data provided by Pakistan Meteorological Department was used for the Extreme precipitation event analysis during the month of September in the Jhelum River basin region which brought in its wake a devastating flood in the Jhelum River.

3.2. Experimental Design

A well-designed ReM experiment is crucially important to address the relevant issues related to the regional climatology of an area. This section is intended to expand on the factors which. are considered while running the RCM. When designing an RCM experiment, the selection of'domain is very important. All areas of interest should lie within the buffer zone ofthe domain. In this study, the domain covers roughly from 4S- 44N and 58E - l02E (Fig. 1). The whole domain is divided in to five sub regions A, B, C, D and E. These sub regions are selected on the basis of the climatology of the area. The region A covers the complex mountainous north of Pakistan including parts of upper Punjab, upper N.W.F.P, Northern Areas and Kashmir. This region experiences both the winter and monsoon climates. Region B covers the plains of Pakistan including the southern part of Punjab, Baluchistan and Sindh and it experiences the highest maximum temperatures during summer season. Region C covers complex mountainous Nepal, while

region D covers the Western Ghatts of India, an area which experiences very heavy rainfall during the monsoon period Region E covers Bangladesh and north eastern parts of India. These sub regions are used for the area average of variables like precipitation and temperature etc. The performance of the PRECIS RCMs is investigated over these five sub regions by calculating the spatial correlation coefficients and the BIAS between the simulations and observations.

Figure 1: Model Domain and topography with contour interval of 500 m.Regions with height greater than 500m are shaded.

3.3. Model Spin up

It is necessary to allow the atmosphere and land surface to adjust, or spinup to a mutual equilibrium state before commencing the simulation of the climate. The atmosphere of the regional climate model interior only takes a few model days to achieve equilibrium with its lateral boundary conditions, while the temperature and moisture in the deep soil levels can take months to reach equilibrium. In this study, the model was integrated from 01 December 1990 to 31 October 1992, one year spin up has been given to the model to adjust the atmospheric and land surface processes. As RCM climate experiences some drift during the spinup period, the output data during the spinup time is not used in any part of the analysis of RCM results.

3.4. RCM horizontal resolution

The horizontal resolution in regional climate modeling plays an important role in resolving the regional topography. A high resolution regional climate model has the capability to resolve the complex topography, land sea contrast etc. The PRECIS regional climate model is able to run at two different resolutions i.e. 0.44 x 0.44 & 0.22 x 0.22, giving grid boxes of approximately 50km x 50km and 25 km x 25 km respectively. A more realistic land - sea mask topography is expected at 25 km resolution, howevei: the time taken to complete the simulation will be six times longer than for a 50 km resolution run covering the same area. Since the CRU observational data sets are available at 0.5 x
5

0.5, so to make a comparison between the observations and the simulations we integrated PRECIS at the horizontal resolution of 50 km. The Parameterization schemes and the other Physical options used by the PRECIS are given in Table 1.
Table 1: Description of the Parameterization schemes and other physical options used by PRECIS Model
PRECIS

Vertical Levels

19

Dynamics

Hydrostatic

Convective Scheme Land Surface Scheme

Mass Flux Penetration Scheme Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES)

PBL Scheme

1st order turbulent mixing scheme

L W radiation scheme

HadRM3P

SW radiation Scheme

HadRM3P

4. Seasonal Simulations
The performance of PRECIS was investigated on seasonal basis. Major focus was given on two seasons, namely winter season (December-March) and summer monsoon season (June-September) of 1992. The meteorological parameters, precipitation and mean temperature, are used for analysis which are discussed in the subsequent. 4.1. Seasonal Simulations of Precipitation
4.1.1 Winter Season (DJFM), 1992

Fig. 2 shows the models simulated winter season (DJFM) precipitation for the year 1992 and the CRU observed winter. PRECIS reasonably simulated the spatial pattern of the winter season (DJFM) precipitation. The RCM overestimated the precipitation in the mountainous north of the Pakistan, north western parts of India and north western parts of Nepal. The model underestimated (below 2 mm/day) precipitation in upper parts of Punjab and adjoining areas of North West Frontier Province (N.W.F.P) of Pakistan. Table 2 gives the BIAS between observation and simulation and the spatial correlation

o.
n.

coefficient between the simulation and observation. PRECIS over estimated (Positive bias) the area averaged precipitation in the sub region A and C while underestimated (negative bias) the area averaged precipitation over the region B, 0 and E.
Wi.let(OJfll) 1992. CRII PRECIS - CRU. Winter(OJFIA) 1992

Figure 2:

Simulated and observed winter season (DJFM) precipitation (mm/day) and Bias between the observed and simulated precipitation during 1992. Sea masking is applied over ocean.

The winter precipitation bias is maximum (2.41 mm/day) in the mountainous north of Pakistan, while the bias is minimum in sub region C where it is 0.11 mm/day. The higher correlation coefficient achieved is 93% over the sub region D.
4.1.2 Summer Season (JJAS), 1992

The model simulated the summer monsoon season precipitation, the CRU observed summer monsoon precipitation and bias between observation and simulation over South Asia region for the year 1992 (Fig. 3). The PRECIS regional climate model simulated quite realistically the spatial distribution of precipitation during the summer monsoon season of 1992, however the model overestimated the precipitation in the Himalayan region, central and southern parts of Pakistan, central north eastern and north western parts of India, Nepal, Bhutan, western parts of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
iluml",r(.IJ~S) 1$92. PRECIS S"nlmc'(.lJAS) 1992. CRIJ

.. , .
.,

"

Figure 3:

Simulated and observed summer season (JJAS) precipitation (mm/day) and BIAS between the observed and simulated precipitation during 1992

The model underestimated the monsoon precipitation in few parts of upper Punjab and adjoining area of India, south eastern parts of India and the north eastern parts of

Bangladesh, The model has a positive bias in the sub regions A, B, C & D and negative bias in E. The maximum positive bias is in the mountainous north of Pakistan where it is 3.07 mm/day and the minimum negative bias is in the region E and is -0040 mm/day. Negative correlation is found in the sub regions A, C, E while positive correlation in B and D. The time series of area averaged monthly mean precipitation simulated by the PRECIS for the year 1992 over the five sub regions is given in Fig. 4. PRECIS reproduced the observed variability in the area averaged monthly mean precipitation over the five sub regions. The model overestimated the area averaged monthly mean precipitation in region A and C and E while underestimated the area averaged monthly mean precipitation in the region B during the early half of 1992 and in region D.
Table 2: Area averaged seasonal precipitation (mm/day) during the year 1992 over five sub regions, Bias, Spatial Correlation coefficient between models simulated and CRU observed precipitation. Season Region
A (32N-38N & 72E-78E) B (20N-30N & 60E-72E)

PRECIS Observed
4.07 0.16 0.92 0.10 0.56 4.07. 1.11 8.81 7.91 11.22 1.66 0.60 0.70 0.20 0.73 0.99 0.29 6.03 7.31 11.62

Bias
2.41 -0.44 0.22 -0.11 -0.18 3.07 0.82 2.79 0.61 -0.40

SC
-0.71 0.04 0.31 0.93 -0.60 -0.30 0.17 -0.54 0.59 -0.49

Winter
(DJFM)

C (26N-30N & 80E-88E) D (07N-20N & 72E-78E) E (22N-27N & 82E-94E) A (32N-38N & 72E-78E)

Summer
(JJAS)

B (20N-30N & 60E-72E) C (26N-30N & 80E-88E) D (07N-20N & 72E-78E) E (22N-27N & 82E-94E)

4.2. Seasonal Simulations of Temperature Temperature is an important parameter in Meteorology and Climatology. In South Asia region, the temperature plays a significant role in the seasonal change and shifting of weather systems and wind patterns. The temperature of seasonal low over Balochistan during the month of May determines the strength of the monsoon currents either from the Arabian Sea or from the Bay of Bengal to the upper catchments of the rivers. The mean temperature simulated by PRECIS during the winter and summer monsoon season in 1992 is discussed below.
4.2.1 Winter Season (DJFM) 1992

Fig. 5 shows the simulated mean temperature during 1992 winter by PRECIS and the CRU observed winter. PRECIS realistically reproduced the spatial pattern of the mean Winter Season Temperature (WST). However, the model over estimated (Wann Bias) the WST in most parts of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka while there is an underestimation (Cold Bias) in the Himalayan region. The BIAS in the five sub
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regions varies from -2.l1 to 3.08 C. The maximum warm bias is in region B while maximum cold BIAS is in region A.

Figure 4: Observed (solid) and simulated (dashed) precipitation for the year 1992 over the five sub regions

q. p.

Figure 5:
r.

Simulated and observed winter season (DJFM) mean temperature (DC) during 1992 and BIAS between the observed and simulated temperature. Summer Season (JJAS) 1992

4.2.2.

The simulated mean temperature during summer monsoon season of 1992 by the regional climate model PRECIS and the CRU observed winter is shown in Fig. 6. PRECIS regional climate model has reproduced reasonably well the spatial pattern of the mean temperature with a warm bias (0-9C) in the southern and Northern parts of Pakistan, western Ghatts and northern parts of India, Nepal and Bangladesh. There is a cold BIAS (0-3C) over the central and southern parts of India. The model also under estimated the temperature over the central parts of Pakistan including parts of Punjab and N.W.F.P

Figure 6:

Simulated and observed summer season (JJAS) mean temperature (C) during 1992 and BIAS between the observed and simulated temperature.

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Table 3:

Area Averaged seasonal temperature (DC) during 1992, BIAS between model simulated and CRU observed temperature is also given for the selected five sub regions
Region A (32N-38N & 72E-78E) B (20N-30N & 60E-72E) PRECIS -6.65 18.67 5.32 27.58 19.74 11.80 33.22 17.54 26.95 26.77 Observed -4.54 15.59 4.11 24.72 18.44 12.80 30.29 16.73 26.53 27.15 Bias -2.11 3.08 1.21 2.86 1.30 -0.99 2.93 0.81 0.43 -0.38

Season

Winter
(DJFM)

C (26N-30N & 80E-88E) D (07N-20N & 72E-78E) E (22-27N & 82E-94E) A (32N-38N & 72E-78E) B (20N-30N & 60E-72E) .

Summer
(HAS)

C (26N-30N & 80E-88E) D (07N-20N & 72E-78E) E (22N-27N & 82E-94E)

5. Simulation of Extreme Precipitation Event of 1992 over Pakistan

5.1. An overview of Extreme Precipitation Event of 1992
During September, 1992 heavy rainfall occurred over the Jhelum River basin which caused severe flooding in the Jhelum River (Majeed A., 1992). This was the worst event recorded since 1959 and brought in its wake large economic losses and infrastructural damage in Pakistan. This severe flooding event was induced by the severe precipitation event associated with the summer monsoon depression traveling from the Bay of Bengal through India to upper parts of Punjab and adjoining areas of Kashmir and North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan. The abnormal monsoon rainfall was related to the interaction of monsoon depression with an intense westerly wave passing across north of Pakistan. In particular, the OS-day long lasted heavy rainfall event occurring over the Jhelum catchments from 07-11 September, 1992 brought a huge devastating flood of about 1,090,000 cusecs at Mangla. This was the worst flood after 19S9 when a flood of 1,045,000 cusecs was recorded at the dam in July 1959. It was the most active spell of the season. It caused very heavy rainfall in almost all the divisions ofNWFP, Northern areas of Punjab and Kashmir

5.2. Application of PRECIS

In order to realistically simulate the seasonal mean precipitation, the regional climate model PRECIS should be able to simulate reasonably well the individual precipitation events. To investigate the capability of regional climate model PRECIS in simulating the extreme precipitation and the associated circulation, we investigated the extreme precipitation event of September 1992, over the Jhelurn River basin.

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u. t. s.

Sop 07,1992, PRECIS

Sop 0(1,1992, PRECIS

.. ..

s"p 09,J99~, PRE CIS

Sop 10,1992. PRECIS

"

Figure 7:

Simulated daily mean precipitation intensity distribution over the Jhelum River basin from September 07-10, 1992

The daily precipitation intensity distribution simulated by PRECIS from September 07- 10, 1992 is shown in (Fig. 7). The PRECIS regional climate model realistically simulated the daily precipitation intensity distribution over the Jhelum River basin region from September 07-10, 1992. On 7th PRECIS did not produce any heavy rain spell. On 8th September PRECIS simulated rainfall (IO-80 mm/day) over Punjab and adjoining areas of N.W.F.P, Northern Areas and Kashmir. On 9th September, the RCM realistically reproduced the heavy precipitation (>200 mm/day) in the Jhelum River basin region. On 10th September, the model simulated rainfall (>200 mm/day) over Jhelum River basin region. Time series of the simulated and observed area averaged daily mean precipitation over the Jhelum River basin for September 1992 also shows a maximum peak on 9th and l0th of September (Fig, 8).

Figure 8:

Observed and simulated area averaged daily mean precipitation during September 1992 over Jhelum River basin region. .

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PRECIS realistically simulated the area averaged daily mean precipitation compared to the observational data. The area averaged daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature simulated by the RCM during the month of September 1992 over the Jhelum River basin region is shown in (Fig. 9). In general both models captured the trend and fluctuations in the daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature over the Jhelum River basin, however there is a cold bias in both maximum and minimum temperature. The monsoon depression was initially located in the eastern coast of India (Fig. 10) and moved in the North West direction. A strong westerly wave passing over the North of Pakistan influenced the direction of motion of the depression and hence the depression recurved in the north easterly direction, as a result, the westward movement of the depression was completely stopped. The depression remained almost static over Rajistan, India on 6th and 7th September, 1992. During this period, it became accentuated after getting the moisture from the Arabian Sea component

Figure 9:

Observed and simulated area averaged daily maximum and minimum temperature during September 1992 over Jhelum River basin region.

The north ward movement of the depression was quite rapid and after entering into Pakistan, the interaction of this monsoon depression with an active westerly passing over the north of Pakistan gave heavy rainfall in the Jhelum River basin. The simulated and observed track of the monsoon depression recorded by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is shown in (Fig. 11). The regional climate model PRECIS nicely captured the track of monsoon depression. The simulated daily track error of monsoon depression during September 1992 is also shown in Table 4. The daily track error in PRECIS simulation ranges from 20.14 Ian to a maximum of 265.78 km.

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(a)

01 Sep. 1992

(b)

03 Sep.1992

(c )

05 Sep.1992

(d)

10 Sep. 1992

Figure 10:

The model simulated wind vectors and Geo-potential heights at 500 hpa from September 01-10, 1992.

Figure 11:

Simulated and Observed PMD track of monsoon depression during September, 1992

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Table 4: Simulated daily Track Error of Monsoon depression during September 1992

Date 01-09-1992 05-09-1992 07-09-1992 09-09-1992 10-09-1992

PRECIS Track Error

(km)

48.80 265.78 186.84 20.14 59.93

5.3. Discussion In general PRECIS reasonably simulated the spatial distribution of winter and summer monsoon season precipitation over South Asia. The maximum positive BIAS in the winter season precipitation was recorded over the mountainous north of Pakistan where as during the summer monsoon season the higher positive precipitation bias was found over the Western Ghatts in India, Nepal and Mountainous North of Pakistan. The RCM reasonably simulated the spatial pattern of mean seasonal temperature during winter and summer, however maximum cold bias was found in the mountainous north of Pakistan and maximum warm bias in the southern parts of Pakistan. The model realistically simulated the extreme precipitation event of September 1992 over the Jhelum River basin region which caused very severe flooding in the Jhelum River. The model also captured the track of the monsoon depression. The overall performance of PRECIS RCM was found good over the South Asia region.

6.

Simulations of Super Cyclonic Storm during 1999 in the Bay of Bengal

6.1. Overview of 1999 super cyclone in Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclones pose a serious and growing threat to many coastal areas of the world. These cause severe damage and destruction to the coastal regions at the time of their land fall. Strong gale winds, torrential rains and associated tidal waves with tropical cyclones are responsible for the severe destruction in the coastal areas. In 1999, eight cyclonic disturbances formed over the North Indian Ocean (7 were in the Bay of Bengal and one in the Arabian Sea). Out of these 8 cyclonic disturbances, one cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal attained the intensity of super cyclonic storm. This Super Cyclone developed in the Bay of Bengal during October 25-30, 1999, became the strongest and deadliest cyclone in the region since the Bangladesh cyclone of April 1991 and caused very heavy damage and devastation along the coastal areas of Orissa and adjoining districts of west Bengal. It had some unique features such as rapid intensification, small radius of eyewall confining the large surge close to the point of landfall and relatively long life after land fall. Many numerical studies (MandaI and Mohanty, 2006; Rao and Parsad, 2006;
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Shivhare and Srinivas, 2006; Thapliyal et. al., 2000; Trivedi et. al 2006) are carried out to study the various features of supper cyclone by using different regional and mesoscale climate models (e.g., RegCM3 and MMS). The main objective of this validation study is to investigate the performance of PRECIS model in simulation of the tropical cyclone and the associated features with it, such as the minimum pressure, the wind circulation and the track of SC. 6.2. Experimental Design PRECIS was integrated from December 01, 1998 to November 30, 1999 over a domain covering roughly 5000x 4600 km2 from 4S -40Nand 60E - 102E with a horizontal resolution of SOkm. The initial fields and time varying boundary variables were provided from ECMWF reanalysis data ERA40 which was available at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 x 2.5. High resolution (10') Global topographic dataset was used to obtain the model topography.

Figure 12: Model domain and topography for SS simulations

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6.3. Results and Discussions

A tropical cyclone is characterized by very low pressure values at the centre with steep gradients within about a hundred kilometers of radius from the inner core of the storm. Pressure gradient reduces away from the inner core region.
(a) Day-l
(b) Day-2 (c) Day-3

(d) Day-4

(e) Day-5

(f) Day-6

Figure 13 (a-f):

Model simulated mean sea level pressure from October 25-30, 1999.

The model simulated mean sea level pressure distribution with many closed isobars and steep gradients very close to the cyclone's centre as shown in (Fig. 13). Table 5 shows the observed and model simulated mean sea level pressure at the centre of the storm from October 26-30, 1999. The numbers in the brackets are the pressure drop from the observed environmental pressure. The observed environmental sea level pressure was 1008 hPa. During the first two days (48 hours) of integration, the model simulated central pressure closely resembling to that of the observations.

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Table 5:

Observed and model simulated mean sea level pressure at the centre of the storm. Observed environmental sea level pressure was 1008 hPa.

x. w. v.

Date 26-10-1999 27-10-1999 28-10-1999 29-10-1999 30-10-1999

Observed MSLP hPa 1000(8)

992(16) 965(43) 912(96) N/A

Simulated MSLP hPa 1002(6) 995(13) 993(15) 992(16) 998(10)

The model simulated surface wind and 24 hour accumulated precipitation in mm as shown in (Fig. 14). The observed super cyclone made its land fall near Orrissa coast between 0430 and 0630 UTC of 29 October, 1999. The observed precipitation is shifted towards right due to the shift in the simulated track of the storm.

Figure 14 (a-f):

Model simulated surface wind and 24 hours accumulated precipitation from October 25-30, 1999.

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Fig.l5 shows a well defined model simulated cyclonic circulation and wind magnitude in knots at 850 hPa from October 26-30, 1999. The lower tropospheric winds in the cyclones are characterized by relatively calm winds (Fig. l3) at the centre, surrounded by very strong winds close to the centre at the radius of maximum winds and thereafter decreasing slowly outwards. The model under estimated the maximum wind magnitude throughout the integration period.
(a) Day-I
(b) Day-2 (c) Day-3

(d) Day-4

(e) Day-5

(f) Day-6

Figure 15 (a-f):

Model simulated wind flow (speed in knots) at 850 hPa from October 25-30, 1999

The observed movement is north -west ward throughout the integration period. The track in the analysis showed very similar movement till 72 hours when cyclone was away from the coast and there after showed a sudden recurve of the system towards the north east direction. The track error of the simulations with respect to the observations is shown in Table 6.

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Figure 16: Observed and simulated track of Super cyclone Oct. 1999. Table 6: Daily track error in km between observed and model simulated positions of the storm. Date 25-10-1999 26-10-1999 27-10-1999 28-10-1999 29-10-1999 30-10-1999 Track Error (km) 184 71 158 332 542 794

The track error varies from 71 km to 794 km. The error is less during the first three days (72 hours) but in the later days the error increased as the system recurved towards the northeast direction.

7. Conclusions
In this study an attempt has been made to validate the regional climate model PRECIS over South Asia by simulating the summer monsoon and winter seasons in 1992, extreme precipitation event of September 1992 over Jhelum river basin and the Super Cyclonic Storm of 1999 in the Bay of Bengal. The performance of the model was investigated by comparing the simulation results with the observed meteorological data and the CRU observations. It was found that the regional climate model PRECIS can simulate reasonably well the structure and evolution of synoptic events and large scale monsoon circulation as well as the individual extreme precipitation events when driven by the

20

ECMWF reanalysis datasets. In general, PRECIS simulated reasonably enough the spatial distribution of winter season and summer monsoon season precipitation over South Asia. The maximum precipitation BIAS in winter was recorded over the mountainous north of Pakistan where as maximum precipitation BIAS during the summer monsoon season was found over the western Ghatts in India, Nepal and mountainous north of Pakistan. The RCM reasonably simulated the spatial pattern of mean seasonal temperature during winter and summer. Temperature biases were mostly in the range of a few degrees Centigrade. These biases generally decreased in the later months due : to a better integration of the land surface processes. The model realistically simulated the extreme precipitation event of September 1992 over the Jhelum River basin region which caused very severe flooding in the Jhelum River. The model also captured the track of the monsoon depression. Compared to the driving large scale fields which are available at a course resolution of 2.5 x 2.5, PRECIS generally produced more realistic regional details of surface climate as forced by complex topography, large lake systems, or narrow land masses. PRECIS can simulate reasonably well the various features associated with the tropical cyclones. The model simulated various -features associated with development and movement of the super cyclonic storm of 1999 in Bay of Bengal. The simulated cyclone showed all the characteristics of mature cyclone with warm core and formation of eye. The simulated tracks are compared with the observed track and a quantitative assessment of the performance of the model is made by computing the track error. The model reproduced a very fine circulation from very week circulation but at times the model not only underestimated the intensity of precipitation but also the distribution of simulated maximum precipitation did not agree with that of the observed precipitation because of the shift in the simulated landfall position of the storm. Overall, the model compared to the observations performed better. An important problem faced during the validation of regional climate model PRECIS was the lack of adequately dense observational data, since RCMs can capture fine structure of climate patterns. This problem is especially relevant in mountainous areas, where only a small number of high-elevation stations are available. There are also question marks on the observational CRU data over this region.

8. Acknowledgements
The authors thank Hadley Centre, Met office, UK for providing regional climate model, PRECIS to study the regional climate over Pakistan and adjoining South Asia region. They also acknowledge the continuous support of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) for providing the boundary conditions for use in this study. The observational data used was provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department and partly by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), university of East Anglia, UK. Thanks are also due to Dr. Wilfran Moufouma-Okia and David Hein of Hadley Centre, for their assistance during the validation of the PRECIS model.

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Shivhare R. P., and V. S. Srinivas, 2006: Tropical Cyclonic Storms - Modeling Studies in Indian Air Force, Mausam, 57,135-140. Thapliyal V., D.S. Desai and V. Krishnan, 2000: Cyclones and Depressions over North Indian Ocean during 1999., Mausam, 51,215-224. Trivedi D. k., P. Mukhopadhyay and S. S. VaiDya, 2006: Impact of Physical Parameterization Schemes on the Numerical Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999)., Mausam,57,97-110. Walsh, K., and J. L. McGregor, 1995: January and July Climate Simulations over the Australian Region using a Limited-area Model., J. Climate, 8,2387-2403. Wang, Y., O. L. Sen, and B. Wang, 2003: A Highly Resolved Regional Climate Model (IPRC-RegCM) and its Simulation of the 1998 Severe Precipitation Event over China. Part I: Model Description and Verification of Simulation, 1. Climate, 16, 1721-1738. Wilson S., D. Hassel, D. Rein, R. Jones and R. Taylor, 2004: "Installing and using the Hadley Centre Regional Modeling System - PRECIS version 1.1", ed. Met Office, UK, 1O-126p.

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Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Global change science is being aggressively pursued around the world. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre was created in May 2002 to initiate this multidisciplinary effort in Pakistan. The main objective of the Centre is to comprehend the phenomenon of global change, scientifically determine its likely impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Pakistan and develop strategies to counter the adverse effects, if any. Another function of the Centre is to establish itself as a national focal point for providing cohesion to global change related activities at the national level and for linking it with international global research. An important function of the Centre is to help develop manpower that is capable of studying and participating in the international effort to study the global change phenomenon. The Centre also works to increase the awareness of the public, the scientific community and the policy planners in the country to global change.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad Pakistan Telephone: (+92-51) 9230226 - 8, 2077386 Fax: (+92-51) 2077385 E-mail: gcisc@comsats.net.pk Web: www.gcisc.org.pk