,

10

CPI

2011.1.12

David S.Nassar
Oliver L.Velez

2010 12

2000 3 10 5 000 5 132

macrowave4 2

349

4 14
CPI
355

5 16 50
11

2 000 40%

macrowave
investor

macrowave investing

microinvestor
day trader
(momentum strategy)


(constraian strategy)
1993
Jegadeeshkg Titman
3~12

(P/E)

1/16
50 000 2 500

20 000
the Conference
Board
CNBC


swing trader

500

CPI
8 000 CPI

buyandhold
investor
5
26 39
40 000 5
7
20 40 000
10 000
50 000

40 000 10 000

3 4

5
5

 6 7

8 9
10

11


15

1
2
3
4

5
6
7
8
9
10
11

12
13
14
15
16
17

 18
19
20

Robert Fisher

24
28 35

2.2
25 49
49 40

1.

2.

3.

4.


5.

6.

7.

8.

---------------------------------------


speculategamble

Gary BielfeldtMarket Wizard

Victor Niederhoffer

market risk

1997 1998

2000

3458 3 5
4

8
spillover effects

sector risk

CISCO

50%
80%Applied Materials
Intel

Ivax Cisco
Schwab Enron
MotorolaNokiaQualcomm Vodaphone

company risk
Ask Jeeves

SMH
(Linear Technologies)
,
Intel
BroadcomMicronXilinx

Tony Saliba

sell short

100
100
95 95
5

Flat

1000

time
premium
7 45%
15%

Jeremy Siegel

2up-tick rule
exchange-traded funds

1929

(up-tick rule)
1929

Kevin Maroni

Randy McKay

5-1 12
5-1


9 10

11 3

3
3 5

100
3advance-decline lineADL
3

 50%

breadth
trend

2000

Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator

The Financial Post

2000 4
13

25 50

5-1

Margin Interest

5-1
CPI
/

 5-1


10 12
Victor Niederhoffer

1997

5-2
2000 4 14

5-2

30
10
5

2000 4 13

10923.55
3676.78
2000 4 13

5.803
5.914
6.207

2000 4 14

10305.77
3321.29
2000 4 14

5.782
5.885
6.167

-5.66%
-9.67%

-0.36%
-0.49%
-0.64%

CPI
6
10

 CPI
30 10 5
CPI

spike

4 14

4 14

4 14

,
Telemex
(Victor Niederhoffer)

Sun

Michelle Carrera

1000
Allied Capital
1000 Pacific Gas &
Electric

10%

sector4 rotation

CNN

6-1

6-1

AT&T Bell South

Wirelesss Buccaneers
Qualcomm Motorola

6-2 34
7

6-2

 6-2

Dow, 3M, Monsanto

ADP, First DataPaychex

Dow, Dupont, Union Carbide

Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin

Ogden, Thermo Electron, Waste Management

Caterpillar, General Electric, Pitney Bowes

Georgia Pacific, Kimberly Clark, Weyerhauser

GM, Ford, Honda

Home Depot, Gannie Mac, Whirlpool

Disney, Seagrams, Time Warner

Cox, Fox, Viacom

Costco, Gap, Target

Alberto Culver, Estee Lauder, Revlon

Apollo, Learning Tree, McGraw-Hill

Anheuser Busch, McDonalds, Safeway

Philip Morris, R. J. Reynolds, UST

Chevron, Exxon, Schlumberger

Halliburton, Noble, Weatherford

Chevron, Enron, Schlumberger

AT&T, Bellsouth, Verizon

American Electric Power, Duke Power, PG&E

Chase Manhattan, Mellon, Wells Fargo

Lehman Bros, Morgan Stanley, Schwab

AMEX, Berkshire Hathaway, Citigroup

Freddie MAC, Fannie Mac, Golden West

Cigna, Chubb, Hartford Financial

Burnham Pacific, Grubb & Ellis, Wilshire

American Home Products, J&J, Medtronic

Aetna, Cigna, Wellpoint

Allergan, Biomet, Guidant

Bristol Myers, Glaxo, Schering-Plough

American, Delta, Southwest

Burlington Northern, Eaton, Delta

63
6-3

Amgen, Genentech, Immunex, Ligand, Xoma

Cray, IBM
Apple, Compaq, Dell, Palm
Hewlett Packard, Silicon Graphics, Sun
Adobe, Corel, Intuit, Microsoft, Oracle

B2B
B2C

EMC, Sandisk, Seagate, Silicon Storage

Agilent, KLA-Tencor, Teradyne
Applied Materials, Intel, Micron, Zoran
Cisco, EMC, Sun
Ariba, Commerce One, Internet Capital
AOL, Yahoo, Amazon, eBay
Akamai, BEAS, Exodus, Real Networks, Verisign
Juniper, Novell, Redback
Ciena, Corning, JDS Uniphase, Sycamore
Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola, Nokia, Qualcomm

Cray IBM
Apple CompaqSilicon Graphics
Sun, CorelMicrosoft Oracle
Sandisk Seagate

Cisco SunB2B Ariba

Commerce One B2C AOL Yahoo
AkamaiExodus Verisign
Juniper Redback


www.changewave.com

Sears Roebuck 7/8

43.125 May Department Store 1 5/8
57.75 Woolworth 3/8 28.75
The New York Times

(Aviation Week & Space Technology)

6-4

6-4. ---

77%
76%

91%
71%

22%
54%

92%
83%
64%
86%
-

92%
, Sears May Company

Boeing General
Dynamics

OPEC

Los Angeles Times

Investor's Chronical

6-5

6-5

K-Mart
Circut
City

Firs Albany
Copr.
IBM

(Charleston Sunday Gazette Mail)

IBM

Schwab Washington Research
Group Greg Valiere

Barron's

 redchip.com
marketwatch.com

30

Automotive News


10

Los Angeles Times