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()

(paired comparison) AHP

ANP

Fuzzy

(e.g. fuzzy theory) ( multi-criteria decision making

Delphi ) ()
/
0
1

(SAW AHP (ISM)

TOPSIS ELECTRE ANP ) 2 fuzzy theory 3

Delphi 4 AHP AHP

ANP

5 (DEMATE) 6 (ANP)
ISM ANP
AHP Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS Delphi
AHP

ANP

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iii

Contents

Chapter

Chapter

0.1

0.1.1

2
10

0.1.3 Delphi

14

0.1.4 AHP

20

0.1.5

25

0.1.6

55

0.1.7

58

0.1.8

63

1.1

iv

0.1.2

71

71

1.1.1

73

1.1.2 -

76

SAW

77

AHP

80

87

(ISM)

89

TOPSIS

144

Fuzzy TOPSIS

149

ELECTRE

154

ANP

163

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Contents

1.2

Chapter

1.1.3

163

1.1.4

173

1.1.5

176

1.1.6

180

1.1.7

182

1.1.8

186

1.1.9

194

197

1.2.1

198

1.2.2

204

1.2.3

213

1.2.4

218

1.2.5

224

1.2.6

228

2.1

235

235

2.1.1

235

2.1.2 Excel

241

2.2

260

2.3

261

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2.4

264

2.4.1

264

2.4.2

267

2.4.3

271

2.4.4

272

2.5

276

2.6

277

2.7

284

2.7.1

285

2.7.2

287

290

2.8.1

291

2.8.2

293

299

2.9.1

300

2.9.2

305

2.9.3 FAHP

306

2.8

2.9

2.10

Chapter

vi

2.10.1 -

308

2.10.2 -

309

2.10.3

313

Fuzzy Delphi
3.1

308

317

Delphi vs. Fuzzy Delphi

317

3.1.1 Delphi

318

3.1.2 Fuzzy Delphi

328

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Contents

3.2

329

3.3

Delphi

334

3.4

Fuzzy Delphi

335

3.5

Fuzzy Delphi

339

3.5.1 Max-Min

340

3.5.2 (Fuzzy Integration)

356

3.5.3 Delphi

358

3.5.4

362

3.5.5

368

375

3.6.1

375

3.6.2 Fuzzy

377

3.6.3

379

395

3.7.1

396

3.7.2

398

3.6

3.7

Chapter

& Fuzzy
4.1

407

(AHP)

408

4.1.1 AHP

409

4.1.2 AHP

412

4.2

AHP Fuzzy AHP

420

4.3

Fuzzy AHP

424

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vii

4.4

4.5

4.6

Chapter

Chapter

1 AHP
Fuzzy

433

4.4.1 AHP (algorithm)

435

4.4.2

442

4.4.3

456

2 SAM FAHP

469

4.5.1 FAHP (Algorithm)

469

4.5.2 2 FAHP

478

511

4.6.1 FAHP

512

4.6.2 FAHP

513

4.6.3 FAHP

519

5.1

527

5.2

DEMATEL

528

5.3

DEMATEL Excel

533

ANP

547

6.1

548

6.2

551

6.3

ANP

557

viii

527

577

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Chapter

()

(AHP) Delphi

(AHP fuzzy AHP)

(Delphi Fuzzy Delphi)

( CD AHP Expert Choice ChoiceMaker ANP super

decision Excel )
(fuzzyfuzzy Delphifuzzy AHP)

0.1
() (1)
(2) () (ISM fuzzy Delphifuzzy AHP ANP

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DEMATEL )(3) ( SAW AHP

TOPSIS ELECTRE )
(planning)

0.1.1

1. (ends) (what is to be done)

2. (means) (how it is to be done)
(plan)
0-1

0-1

(planning)

(plan)

1.

1.

2.

2. ()

3.

3.

4.

4.

5.

5.

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Chapter 0

1.

(1)
(2)
(Grey) (Fuzzy) (Hazy)
(3)
(4)

Step 1.
Step 2. (1) (2) (3)
Step 3. (1) (2)
(3) (4)
Step 4. -(1) ()
(2) () (3) ()

A ( [aij ]mn )

a11

a12

a13

a14

a21

a22

a23

a24

a31

a32

a33

a34

Step 5.

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SAW (fuzzy) AHP TOPSIS ELECTRE

ANP
2.

(1)
(2)
(3) (contingency plans)
(4)
(Dessler2000)
(1)
(2)
(3) Drucker

(4)
(5)

(1988) Dessler (2000) 0-3

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Chapter 0

0-2 (1988)
1 (business mission)

3
OT (Opportunity &
Threat)
4
SW (Strength &
Weakness)
(SWOT)

5 3 4
AHP ANP DEMATE L
6 ()
7
8

0-3 Dessler (2000)

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(1)

(2) (
)
(3)
- 0-1

()

0-1

1.
Kast & Rosenzweig (1979) (level)
(1) (strategic plan)

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Chapter 0

0-2

()

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(2) (functional plan)

()

(3) (operational plan)

()

0-4

(Strategic plans)

(Tactical plans)

1Levi's

2Motorola Motorola
(
)

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Chapter 0

0-5

2. (scope)
(1)
(2)
(3)

0-3

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0.1.2

(brain storming) Osborn (1942) How to think up

(1) (2)
(3) (4)

(nominal group technique)

(1)
(2)
(3)
10

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Chapter 0

(4)

Delphi
(Delphi technique) (Rand Corporate)

Delphi
(1)

(2)

(3)
(4)
(5) (3) (4)

(consensus ranking method) Cook and Seiford (1978)

AHP

(quantitative) (qualitative)

AHP ()

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11

Saaty (1980)

(1) ( S e t t i n g P r i o r i t i e s )
DEMATEL
(2) (Generating a Set of Alternatives)
(3) (Choosing the Best Policy Alternative)
(4) (Determining Requirements)
(5) (Making Decision Using Benefits and costs)
(6) (Allocating Resources)
(7) - (Predicting Outcomes-Risk Assessment)
(8) (Measuring Performance)
(9) (Designing a System)
(10) (Ensuring System Stability)
(11) (Optimizing)
(12) (Planning)
(13) (Conflict Resolution)
AHPfuzzy AHP AHP fuzzy
fuzzy AHP Buckley (1985) Saaty AHP

Buckley

Buckley fuzzy AHP (1)

(2) (3) (4) (5)
(6) (7) ( 0~1 )(8)
(--)

Borda
(Borda count method)
12

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Chapter 0

Goddard (1983)
(complete ordinal ranking)

Jensen (1986)
(minimum-varianceMV) (mean
of ranksMR) (mean of eigenvectorsMV)
(geometric-mean matrix eigenvectorGM)
(eigenvalue analysis)

(paradox)Nurmi and
Meskanen (2000)
(Condorcets voting paradox) (Bordas paradox)
(Ostrogorskis paradox) (Anscombes paradox)

(AHP)ELECTRE (Elimination et Choice Translating Reality

Method)TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
Method) (Analytic Network ProcessANP)

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13

0.1.3 Delphi
Likert
Thurstone (semantic differential scale)Guttman
(scale of paired comparison)
()
fuzzy Delphi
SPSS SPSS
SPSS AHP

Delphi (Rand Company)

Delphi
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

Delphi
Delphi
Delphi

Delphi
(1) (anonymity)Delphi

14

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Chapter 0

(2) (controlled feedback)

()

(3) (iteration)

(4) (statistical group response)

Delphi

(1) Delphi

(2) Delphi

(3) Delphi

(4) Delphi
(Listone & Turoff1975)
fuzzy Delphi Delphi

Delphi

Delphi
(2009)

()
15 3

19 0-6

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15

0-6

Hoot, et al. (1993)

Hatfield (1981)

Stronge & Tucker (2003)

National Board for Professional

Teaching Standards (2006)

(2004)

(1997)

(1999)

(2001)

(1982)

Moya & Gay (1982)

Hill. (1982)

Churchill (1992)

Valentine (1992)

Kontos &Diamond (1997)

Stronge & Tucker (2003)

1.

2.

16

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Chapter 0

0-6 ()

Hoot, et al. (1993)

Hatfield (1981)

Stronge & Tucker (2003)

National Board for Professional

Teaching Standards (2006)

(2004)

(1997)

(2001)

(1999)

(1982)

Moya & Gay (1982)

Hill. (1982)

Valentine (1992)

Churchill (1992)

Kontos &Diamond (1997)

Stronge & Tucker (2003)

3.

4.

IEP

5.

6.

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17

()

12 6

27 94
()
(1) Delphi fuzzy Delphi
()(2)
0.50 (SPSS for Windows
)
27
( 0-7)
1 5
3 (54321)53
(4.45)
(M
4.55) 15 (M4.55) 12
(M4.55)

24
3 12-1.
11-1. 11-2.

18

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Chapter 0

0-7

Mean
Mode

Mean
Mode

Mean

1-1.

4.43

1-2.

4.84

2-1.

4.62

2-2.

4.67

3-1.

4.59

3-2.

4.54

4-1. (IEP)

4.62

4-2. (IEP)

4.64

7-1. (ITP)

4.37

7-2. (ITP)

4.37

5-1.

4.73

5-2.

4.64

5-3.

4.60

6-1.

4.64

6-2.

4.66

6-3.

4.62

6-4.

4.54

12-1.

4.38

12-2.

7.34

8-1.

4.39

8-2.

4.52

9-1.

4.40

A.

B.

C.

D.

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19

0-7 ()

Mean
Mode

Mean
Mode

Mean

9-2.

4.45

10-1.

4.76

10-2.

4.69

11-1.

4.23

11-2.

4.17

4.55

0.1.4 AHP
Saaty 1971 (AHP)

1. (Classes) (Components)

2. (Independence)
3. (criterion)

4. (Ratio Scale)
5. (Pairwise Comparison) (Positive Reciprocal
Matrix)
6. (Transitivity)

A > 2B B > 3C A > 6C

A < 6C
20

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Chapter 0

7.
(Consistency)
8. (Weighting Principle)
9.

()
()

(criterion) (to judge) (to

separate) (to decide)

(indicator)

(1) (construct)
(2)

(3)

(4)

AHP
() -
() C1. C2. C3.

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21

C4.
W10.5115W2
0.0986W30.2433W40.1466 (A
BC) ()
0-8 vs.
C1.

C2.

C3.

C4.

0.571

0.159

0.088

0.082

0.286

0.252

0.669

0.315

0.143

0.589

0.243

0.603

34
W
A 0.51150.5710.0986 0.1590.24330.0880.14660.0820.3415
B 0.51150.2850.0986 0.2520.24330.6690.14660.3150.3799
C 0.51150.1430.0986 0.5890.24330.2430.14660.6030.2786
B 0.3799

AHP-
(1)

(2)
( A B 1357
9 2468 )
(3) AWW max
W
W
(4) max
22

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Chapter 0

(Consistency Ratio) R.C. C.R.C.I. R.I.

n
C.I . = max
n C.R. 0.10
n 1
(5)
()
(6) W(W1W2Wn)A
W
(7)
N (scale of
paired comparison) 0-4

Wt[0.295, 0.209, 0.495]

BMW 0.2950.1030.2090.6650.4950.5320.433
TOYOTA 0.2950.1740.2090.2310.4950.3660.281
PORSCHE 0.2950.7230.2090.1040.4950.1020.286

(G)

Goal

0.295

(C)

0.103

(A)

0.209

0.723 0.665

0.174

BMW

0.495

0.231

0.104

TOYOTA

0.532
0.366

0.102

PORSCHE

0-4

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23

0.433 BMW N

W t
AHP W t -
fuzzy AHP
AHP

Fuzzy AHP

AHP
Expert Choice ( 0-5)( CDch01 AHP ChoiceMaker /00

0-5 ChoiceMaker
24

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.
.
.
, 2012. 03
.,2008.08

.
ISBN978-957-11-5229-5()
ISBN 978-957-11-6583-7
1.1.2.3.

489.67
494.1

97009174
101001640

1MCH
1H74

275






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