When Zombies Attack!

Based entirely on work by P. Munz, I. Hudea, J. Imad and R.J.

Smith?
Casey Briggs
University of Adelaide
May 24, 2011
Denitions
Denition
A zombie is a reanimated human corpse that feeds on human esh.
Denition
If a zombies head has been removed or brain been destroyed, then
we say that the zombie has been defeated.
The Basic Model
Consider three basic classes:
Susceptible (S)
Zombie (Z)
Removed (R)
Change in Susceptibles
Susceptibles die due to natural causes (that is, non-zombie related)
at rate .
When a zombie meets a susceptible, they infect it at rate .
Susceptibles are created at constant birth rate .
Thus, the rate of change of S is given by
S

= SZ S
Change in Zombies
A human can become a zombie after losing an encounter with
another zombie, with parameter .
Humans can also be resurrected from the dead, at rate .
Zombies move to the removed class once they are defeated. This
happens with parameter after an altercation.
Thus, the rate of change of Z is given by
Z

= SZ + R SZ
Change in Removed
Corpses are resurrected into zombies at rate .
Zombies are defeated with parameter after an encounter with a
human.
Humans die of natural causes at rate after an altercation.
Thus, the rate of change of R is given by
R

= S + SZ R
The Basic Model
So the basic model is given by
S

= SZ S (1)
Z

= SZ + R SZ (2)
R

= S + SZ R (3)
Simplications
Let us assume that the zombie outbreak is happening over a short
timescale. Then we can ignore birth and natural death rates, and
thus = = 0.
S

= SZ
Z

= SZ + R SZ
R

= SZ R
Steady States
To investigate the steady states of the model, we set the
dierential equations to zero.
0 = SZ
0 = SZ + R SZ
0 = SZ R
From the rst equation, either S = 0 or Z = 0.
If S = 0, then we have the equilibrium
(

S,

Z,

R) = (0, N, 0)
That is, the doomsday scenario in which the entire population are
zombies.
Steady States
If Z = 0, then we have the equilibrium
(

S,

Z,

R) = (N, 0, 0)
That is, the entire population is human.
These equilibrium points show us that under this model,
human-zombie coexistence is impossible
Numerical Solutions
Initially 500 susceptibles and 0 zombies
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Time
P
o
p
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n

V
a
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(
1
0
0
0
s
)


Susceptibles
Zombies
Figure: = 0.005, = 0.0095, = 0.0001, = 0.0001
Numerical Solutions
Initially 499 susceptibles and 1 zombie
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Time
P
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(
1
0
0
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)


Susceptibles
Zombies
Figure: = 0.005, = 0.0095, = 0.0001, = 0.0001
Numerical Solutions
Initially 499 susceptibles, 0 zombies and 1 removed.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Time
P
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(
1
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Susceptibles
Zombies
Figure: = 0.005, = 0.0095, = 0.0001, = 0.0001
A Revised Model
There is typically a period of time after a human gets bitten before
they become a zombie (typically around 24 hours). We modify the
model to include an extra class of infected individuals (I ).
Susceptibles now move to an infected class once bitten.
Infected individuals can still die a natural death before
zombifying. If not, they become a zombie.
S

= SZ S
I

= SZ I I
Z

= I + R SZ
R

= S + I + SZ R
This model gives us the same coexistence result. As before,
zombies take over the population, but the process takes around
twice as long.
Possible Zombie Remedies
How might we go about containing a zombie outbreak?
Quarantine infected humans and zombies
Find a cure for zombie-ism
Impulsive eradication
Quarantine
We assume that quarantined individuals are removed from the
population and cannot infect new individuals while they remain
quarantined.
The quarantined area only contains members of the infected or
zombie populations (entering from each class with some rate).
There is a chance some members will try to escape, but if that
were to happen they would be killed before nding freedom.
Individuals killed in the manner above enter the removed
class, and can thus be resurrected later.
Quarantine
We again have the same two equilibria as before, and no
coexistence. But will quarantining control the outbreak?
It turns out that eradication depends critically on quarantining
those in early stages of infection.
But we expect that quarantining a large proportion of infected
individuals is unrealistic because of infrastructure limitations.
A Cure
Suppose we have a treatment that would allow a zombie to return
to their human form again.
Assumptions:
We no longer need the quarantine.
The cure brings zombies to their original human form
regardless of how they became zombies.
The cure does not provide immunity.
A Cure
This model now allows for the possibility of coexistence between
zombies and humans (as you might expect).
When Zombies Attack! 145
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Time
P
o
p
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a
t
i
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n

V
a
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s

(
1
0
0
0
`
s
)
SIZR with Cure ! R0 > 1 with IC = DFE
(same values for parameters used in previous figure)


Suscepties
Zombies
Figure 9. The model with treatment, using the same parameter values as the basic model.
Here, we returned to the basic model and added the impulsive criteria:
S

= SZ S t = t
n
Z

= SZ + R SZ t = t
n
R

= S + SZ R t = t
n
Z = knZ t = t
n
,
where k (0, 1] is the kill ratio and n denotes the number of attacks required until kn > 1.
The results are illustrated in Figure 10.
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

Z
o
m
b
i
e
s
Time
Eradication with increasing kill ratios
Figure 10. Zombie eradication using impulsive attacks.
In Figure 10, we used k = 0.25 and the values of the remaining parameters were
Impulsive Eradication
We could attempt to control the zombie population by destroying
them at such times as our resources permit. This results in an
impulsive eect.
S

= SZ S t = t
n
Z

= SZ + R SZ t = t
n
R

= S + SZ R t = t
n
Z = knZ t = t
n
where k (0, 1] is the kill ratio, n is the number of attacks.
Impulsive Eradication
When Zombies Attack! 145
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Time
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

V
a
l
u
e
s

(
1
0
0
0
`
s
)
SIZR with Cure ! R0 > 1 with IC = DFE
(same values for parameters used in previous figure)


Suscepties
Zombies
Figure 9. The model with treatment, using the same parameter values as the basic model.
Here, we returned to the basic model and added the impulsive criteria:
S

= SZ S t = t
n
Z

= SZ + R SZ t = t
n
R

= S + SZ R t = t
n
Z = knZ t = t
n
,
where k (0, 1] is the kill ratio and n denotes the number of attacks required until kn > 1.
The results are illustrated in Figure 10.
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

Z
o
m
b
i
e
s
Time
Eradication with increasing kill ratios
Figure 10. Zombie eradication using impulsive attacks.
In Figure 10, we used k = 0.25 and the values of the remaining parameters were
Discussion
Quarantining is unlikely to help unless it is extremely
aggressive.
A cure would result in some human survivals, but coexistence
with zombies
Suciently frequent attacks, with increasing force, will result
in eradication.
Conclusion
In the event of a zombie outbreak, we must act quickly and
decisively to eradicate them before they eradicate us.
Be alert, but not alarmed.
Further Reading
Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, Robert J. Smith?
When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of an
Outbreak of Zombie Infection
Infections Disease Modelling Research Progress, 133150,
2009.