Research Report GCISC-RR-03

Climate Change Projections for Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios using outputs of 17 GCMs used in IPCC-AR4

Siraj ul Islam, Nadia Rehman, M. Munir Sheikh Arshad M. Khan

June 2009

Published by: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, fslamabad-44000 Pakistan

ISBN: 978-969-9395-01 -7

@GCISC

Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.

Published in: June 2009

This Report may be cited as follows: Islam, S., N. Rehman, M. M. Sheikh and A.M. Khan (2009), Climate Change Projections for Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A I B Scenarios using outputs of 17 GCMs used in IPCC-AR4. GCISC-RR-03, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan

FOREWORD

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2002 as a dedicated research centre for climate change and other global change related studies, at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Nl, HI, Sf, the then Special Advisor to Chief Executive of Pakistan. The Centre has since been engaged in research on past and projected climate change in different sub regions of Pakistan; corresponding impacts on the country's key sectors; in particular Water and Agriculture; and adaptation measures to counter the negative impacts. The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and was supported in part by APN (Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research), Kobe, Japan, through its CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled "Enhancement of national capabilities in the application of simulation models for assessment of climate change and its impacts on water resources, and food and agricultural production", awarded to GCISC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). It is hoped that the report will provide useful information to national planners and policymakers as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan. The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning Commission and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed, Rector, National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning Group, APN, throughout the course of this work are gratefully acknowledged.

Dr. Arshad M. Khan Executive Director, GCISC

~ ,

PREFACE

Following the completion of the work described in GCISC - RR-02, which was based on 6 GCMs used in the Third Assessment Report of IPCC (2001), various new Global Climate Models (GCMs) were found introduced in IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The details of various GCMs are given in the report. For Simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation for Pakistan, the outputs of 13 GCMs for A2 scenario and the output of 17 GCMs for AlB scenario are synthesized for the analysis of biases and development of the future climate change projections. These data sets cover the time horizon 1960-2100. We took the period 1961-1990 as the base period and considered three time slices: 2010-2039 (labeled as 2020s), 2040-2069 (labeled as 2050s) and 2070-2099 (labeled as 2080s) for obtaining projected average values over the corresponding 30 year periods in the future. In the base period, GCM outputs were compared with the observed gridded data (CRU datasets) to check the ability of models to reproduce the historical climatology over the South Asia region particularly over Pakistan. These models were then used to develop climate change projections corresponding to IPCC A2 and AlB scenarios for Pakistan as a whole as well as for some selected regions of the country, and for Bangladesh and Nepal. The above results were then combined to obtain the projections for annual values of temperature and precipitation corresponding to the ensemble of l3 and 17 GCMs respectively. The ensemble temperature of GCMs showed cold bias over Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh. In all of GCMs, ECHAM and HadCM3 showed the minimum bias and had good agreement with observed CRU dataset almost all over South Asia as compared to other GCMs. The spatial climatology of the ensemble precipitation was weakly reproduced over Bangladesh, the bias over Nepal was quite less whereas over Pakistan it was negligible. The temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan. Also, the rises in temperature, under both scenarios on annual as well as seasonal basis in Pakistan and Nepal are comparable, while those in Bangladesh are relatively lower. Furthermore, there is relatively a larger temperature increase in winter than in summer in all the three countries. The precipitation is likely to increase in summer and decrease in winter in the three countries, while on annual basis it will increase in Bangladesh but have no significant change, within the large errors, in Nepal and Pakistan.

ii

List of Tables

Table 1 Table 2 Table 3(a) Table 3(b) Table 3(c) Table 4

Models used in the study, their centre and resolution Comparison of GCMs used in IPCC TAR and IPCC AR4 Biases over Pakistan simulated by 17GCMs Biases over Nepal simulated by 17GCMs Biases over Bangladesh simulated by 17GCMs Projected Temperature Changes, T (0C) by 17 GCMs ove Northern Pakistan

9
10
11

12 21

Table 5 Table 6 Table 7

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

22 23 23

Table 8
--,

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by J 7 GCMs over Pakistan

24

Table 9

Projected Precipitation Changes, & (%) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

24

Table 10

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-clirnatic Zone)

26

Table 11

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs Over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

26
27

Table 12

Projected Precipitation Changes, & (%) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/sub-humid & Semi-arid Agroclimatic Zone) Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs Region FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Table 13

27

iii

Table 14 Table 15

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C ) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum Projected Temperature Changes, T (C ) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin

29
29

Table 16

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum

30

Table 17

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin

30

Table 18

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

32

Table 19

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

32

Table 20

Projected Temperature Changes, .T (C) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

34

Table 21

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs Bangladesh

34

lV

List of Figures

Figure 13

Figure 14

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for Fl, F2 and F3 for AlB scenario over Bangladesh. (a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (0C) and precipitation (%) for FI, F2 and F3 for AlB scenario over Nepal

19

20

Figure 15

Grids covering (a) Pakistan, (b) Northern Pakistan (FHN) and (c) Southern Pakistan (FHS)

21

Figure 16

(a) FHAB (Humid/Sub-humid and Semi Arid), (b) FHCD (Arid Hyper Arid) climate zones of Pakistan

25

Figure 17

Water shed comprises (a) Kabul and Jhelum river catchments and the whole (b) water shed of river Indus.

28

Figure 18 Figure 19

Grids covering Nepal Grids covering Bangladesh

31 33

VI

List of Acronyms
Most of the Acronyms and abbreviation, wherever they appear in text, are defined as follows.

AGCM AOGCM APN CRU DDC DJFM ECMWF GCISC GCMs ICTP IPCC JJAS MPI OGCM PMD PWC SRES SLP WMO

Atmosphere General Circulation Model Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model Asia Pacific Network Climate Research Unit Data Distribution Centre December-January-February-March European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast Global Change Impact Studies Centre General Circulation Model International Centre for theoretical Physics Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change June-July-August-September Max-Planck Institute Ocean General Circulation Model Pakistan Meteorological Department Physics of Weather and Climate Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Sea Level Pressure World Meteorological Organization

vii

Introduction:
The most commonly and widely accepted method of scenario construction involves the use of the output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), also known as General Circulation Models. These models are the most complex of climate models, since they attempt to represent the main components of the climate system in three dimensions. Now-a-days Coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCMs) have become a valuable tool in attempting to understand and predict climate change (Houghton et al. 1996).

In late 2004 and early 2005, a suite of state-of-the-art GCM simulations were executed with common greenhouse gas forcing conditions in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Historic simulations forced by the observed greenhouse gas concentrations for the 20th century and climate projections for the 21st century, using different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, were performed by the modeling centers around the world and the output archived for evaluation by climate scientists and policy-makers. The IPCC GCM output archive provides a unique opportunity to critically evaluate these large-scale climate model outputs for any region, and bring these evaluations to develop the climate change projections from these models (IPCC, 2007).
For this study, the objectives of this evaluation include: (I) An assessment of the ability of these latest IPCC "state-of-the-art" models to simulate historic means and variability in surface temperature and precipitation over South Asia and; (2) A synthesis of projections of surface air temperature and precipitation for the 21st century and a quantitative comparison of the projected changes of the models and the across-model variance.

2. Models and observational data

Output from 17 IPee GCMs are used for validation as well as for the development of future climate change scenarios. These data sets represent the large subset of model output for surface air temperature and precipitation, and are available for the 20th century simulations and 21st century projections forced by several IPCC greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Simulations of the 20th century use greenhouse gas concentrations and, in some cases, estimated sulfate aerosols, whereas for future projections, these GCMs use the projected greenhouse gas concentrations for the three scenarios of 2l.t century (SRES A2, SRES A lB, and SRES B 1). Story lines A2 and AlB used in this report are described here:

"The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions oj technological change in the energy system. The three A i groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (AIT), or a balance across all sources (AlB) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies")" (IPCC,

2001). "The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines" (IPCC, 2001) To facilitate GCM inter-comparison and validation with the observed data set i.e. CRU data, all monthly fields of a GCM are interpolated to a common 10 x 10 latitude-longitude grid. The inter-comparison of historic means use annual means for 1961 to 1990. Projected changes of surface air temperature and precipitations are based on the three 21st century time slices 20102039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s) and 2070-2099 (2080s) respectively. In Table 1, GCMs used in this analysis are tabulated with their respective Centre and resolution. For A2 scenarios data of only 13 GCMs is available, whereas for A1B case, data of all the 17 GCMs is accessible. Ensembles values have accordingly been worked out. Table 1: Models used in the study, their centre and resolution

In all the tab1es use In this report, x represents the ensemble mean of GCMs value and x represents the standard error as described below:

Where xi is the model value and n is the number of GCMs. A popular climatological baseline period is a 30-year "normal" period as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Therefore the models output and CRU data sets are truncated into the 30 years baseline period of 1961-1990.

2.1 Models validation

In validation process, analysis of annual spatial pattern of GCMs for precipitation and temperature is carried out by comparing these patterns with CRU data set for the 30-year baseline period i.e. 1961-1990 over South Asia. Across all models, the spatial patterns of mean temperatures simulated by the GCMs are very similar to those of the CRU but the resulting biases are large over some parts of South Asia particularly over complex topographic regions. One possible exception is a lack of detailing the GCM over the major topographic features. The coarser grid resolutions of the GCMs and the averaging of the GCM fields over 17 data sources likely cause the smoothening. Standard error between 17 GCMs is calculated over the whole globe (Figure 1 (a) ) and then extracted for South Asia region for a more precise view (Figure 1 (b)). Standard error of temperature and precipitation is calculated for base period (I 961-90) to examine the agreement between different GCMs. The analysis of standard error of temperature over the globe shows a good agreement between 17 GCMs over ocean and over equator but as we move away from the equator, the internal agreement between GeMs decreases, showing a higher standard error (Figure J). The same pattern is observed over South Asia, and there is a low standard error over ocean and a gradual increase as we move upwards. A higher disagreement is observed over most parts of Pakistan.

Figure 1:

Variation of temperature (C) between 17 GCMs for the baseline period (1961-1990), (a) over Globe and (b) over South Asia

In the case of precipitation, the situation is almost opposite. There is no agreement between GCMs over the equator whereas the standard error is very low above and below the equator. Over Pakistan, the internal variation between GCMs is very less as compared to Nepal, Bangladesh and some parts of India as shown in Figure 2. Spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation simulated by these different GCMs over South Asia are compared with observed CRU data. Annual average bias is calculated for the base line period (1961-90).

Figure 2:

Variation of precipitation (mrn/d) between 17 GCMs for the baseline period (1961-1990), (a) over Globe and (b) over South Asia

Temperature bias for all the 17 GCMs is shown in Figure 3. Two GCMs ECHAM (MPI) and HadCM3 (UKMO) show the minimum bias and have good agreement with observed CRU data almost all over South Asia as compared to other GCMs. While the other GCMs give the different biases over different regions as high as 10C. In case of precipitation, percentage bias is calculated for different GCMs. Again ECHAM and HadCM3 well captured the CRU climatology and showed the minimum bias as compared to other GCMs as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 3:

Mean annual bias of temperature (C) reproduced by different models with CRU during 1961-90.

Figure 4:

Mean annual percentage (%) bias of precipitation reproduced by different models with CRU during 1961-90.

1.

2.2 Validation over Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh

Pakistan (Figure 5) lies in both sub tropics and temperate regions and its climate is generally arid, characterized by hot summers and cold winters, and there are wide variations between extremes of temperature at different locations. For example, the coastal area along the Arabian Sea is usually warm, whereas the frozen snow-covered ridges of the Karakoram Range and of other mountains of the far north are so cold year round that they are only accessible by worldclass climbers for a few weeks in May and June of each year. [Source: http://en.wikipedia.orglwikilgeography_of_Pakistan]. GCMs are validated over actual geographical areas of Pakistan to get the individual performance of each GCM. Also the GCMs used in IPCC AR4 (new GCMs) are compared with the IPCC TAR GCMs to see the difference between these old and new versions of GCMs.

Figure 5:

Grids covering (a) Pakistan, (b) Nepal and (c) Bangladesh

In Figure 6, biases of new and old GCMs are seen graphically. In case of temperature, all the new and old GCMs have the same pattern of biases, except for ECHAM4 which have the warm bias for the its new versions. In case of precipitation, CSIRO, GFDL and HadCM3 show the same pattern for both old and new GCMs, whereas CGCM2 and ECHAM show negative bias for old GCMs and positive bias for new GCMs over Pakistan.

Figure 6:

Annual biases of GCMs used in IPCC TAR (old) and IPCC AR4 (new) in the base period (1961-90) for (a) temperature and (b) precipitation

Biases of GCMs used in lPCC TAR and GCMs used in lPCC AR4 are tabulated in Table 2. Ensemble bias of AR4 GCMs is less than that of TAR GCMs. Ensemble bias of TAR GCMs is -3.19C while this bias is -2.lSoC for AR4 GCMs. Table 2: Comparison of GCMs used in !PCC TAR and !PCC AR4

Comparison over Pakistan (Validation) GCMs used in IPCC TAR GCMs Temp diff (OC) CSIRO GFDL HadCM3 CGCM2 ECHAM
(x X) -5.66 -1.64 -2.08 -6.41 -0.16 -3.191.21

GCMs used in IPCC AR4 Temp diff COC)

-3.61 -4.12 -2.06 -1.72 0.78 -2.150.86

Prec diff (%)

-34.76 16.20 -17.57 67.62 3.78 7.05 17.49

Prec diff (%)

-44.76 9.75 -18.38 -35.18 -27.17 -23.15 9.31

All the 17 GCMs are validated in base line period for temperature and precipitation over Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh (Figure 5) and their respective biases are tabulated in Table 3 (a, b and c) respectively. Biases of 17 GCMs over Pakistan are shown in Table 3(a). Best three models from these 17 GCMs over Pakistan are ranked with respect to their biases. In the case of temperature ECHAM5, GISS_ER and MIROC3.2 show the bias less than 1C whereas in the case of precipitation, PCM-NCAR, GISS_ER and GFDL-CM2.1 show the bias less than 6%.

Table 3(a): Biases over Pakistan simulated by 17GCMs GCM's Biases with respect to CRU over Pakistan GCMs S.No.
Temp 1
2 3 UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRJ-CGCM2.3.2 ECH AM5/MPI-OM MlROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS_ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS_EH FGOALS-g1.0 MlROC3.2 (medres) -2.06 -5.63 -3.33 -1.72 0.78

Precip
-18.38 -5.75 92.28 -35.18 -27.17 -19.63 -21.45 -21.25 -4.52 -1.13 9.75 -44.76 155.02 -24.75 -34.56 8.12 10.97 1.04 12.17

4
5

6 7 8 9
]0 11 12 13

-0.25
-3.48 -7.26 0.60 -2.27 -4.12 -3.61 -3.72 2.68 2.57 -2.73 -0.04 -1.97 0.66

14
15 16 17

(XX)

Over Nepal biases of 17 GCMs are calculated and shown in Table 3(b). In the case of temperature ECHAM5, CCSM3-NCAR and GISS_AOM show minimum bias as compared to others, whereas GFDL-CM2.0 shows the less bias in precipitation. CCSM3-NCAR and FGOALS-g 1.0 also show the minimum bias between 10 to 15% in case of precipitation.

10

Table 3(b): Biases over Nepal simulated by 17GCMs

GCM's Biases with respect to CRU over GCMS S. '0. Temp
1 2 UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3- CAR MRl-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5IMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) JPSL-CM4 lNM-CM3.0 GISS_ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSJRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GlSS_AOM GISS_EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)

Nepal Precip
-25.23 -28.54 -10.58 -38.32 56.86 37.05 -55.04 -61.79 -83.55 40.07 -0.20 -26.64 33.56 31.84 -66,.55 -15.23 61.92 -8.85 11.37

-2.16 -3.76 -1.37 -3.14 -0.85 -3.35 -3.67 -6.15 3.95 -4.02 -6.02 -5:31 -4.74 -0.55 4.40 -2.02 -3.60 -2.49 0.75

3 4 5

6
7 8

9
10 11 12 13
14

15 16

17

(xx)

Biases of 17 GCMs over Bangladesh are shown in Table 3(c). Three best models are ranked from 17GCMs with respect to their biases. In the case of temperature ECHAM5, GISS _ ER and GISS_EH show the bias less than l C whereas minimum bias in in case of precipitation is observed for GISS _ER having bias around 0.90%.

11

Table 3(c): Biases over Bangladesh simulated by 17GCMs GCM's Biases with respect to CRU over
GCMS

Bangladesh

S.No.

Temp
1
2 3

Precip
-36.78 -44.20 -39.01 -64.31 -51.18 -36.07

UKMO-HadCM3 PCM- CAR CCSM3-NCAR MRJ-CGCM2.3.2 ECRAM5/MPI-OM MlROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS_ER GFDL-CM2.! GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS_EH FGOALS-g1.0 MJROC3.2 (medrcs)

-1.24 -3.69 -1.39 -3.57 0.69 -3.21 -2.87 -7.94 0.84 -157 -3.13 -2.11 -3.50 1.26 0.80 -3.08 -0.47 -2.01 0.58

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

-64.61
-40.09 0.90 -45.10 -53.74 -49.99 -52.47 -53.13 45.46 -65.66 -38.09 -40.47 6.74

12 13
14 15 16

17

(XX)

2. Future Climate change Projections

Two different sets of prescribed greenhouse gas forcings for the 21st century are used in this study, representing a range of emission scenarios: SRES A1B, and SRES A2. Three time slices incorporating 30-years, centered on 2020s (labeled as FI), 2050s (labeled as F2) and 2080s (labeled as F3) are examined to gain an insight into the range of future prediction of temperature and precipitation for A2 and A1B scenarios estimated from the AOGCMs.

3.1 Projected changes over South Asia

Spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature for all three futures are discussed on annual basis. .

3.1.1 A2 Scenario
The ensemble annual temperature changes for A2 scenario show an increase in temperature over the whole region (Figure 7). As we move towards north, the rise in temperature is even more, showing an increasing trend towards north. For F 1, this increase is slightly less but if we

12

move forward to F2 and F3, temperature change is seen gradually increasing and shows almost 5C change in temperature in case of F3. In case of precipitation, there is no significant change observed in Fl over the region while in F2, small increase in precipitation change has occurred and in F3 it is higher compared to other two futures.

Figure 7:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (0C) and (b) precipitation (%) for FI, F2 and F3 for A2 scenario over South Asia.

For the results to be more precise, different regions of South Asia including Pakistan Nepal and Bangladesh were masked out and projected changes were worked out. Over Pakistan, there is rise of about 2C over Northern Pakistan, I.5C over central parts and over coastal areas, rise in temperature is about 1C in F 1, whereas temperature change has further increased in F2 and F3 13

and almost 5C temperature change is observed over Northern Pakistan in F3 for A2 scenario (Figure 8). In case of precipitation, there is no significant change observed over Pakistan specifically over Northern Pakistan for all the three futures (FI, F2, and F3). There is about 15 to 20 % increase in precipitation over the desert areas of Pakistan in F3, but as the amount of precipitation in this area is comparatively very low throughout the year, so the increase is not very significant.

Figure 8:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for Fl , F2 and F3 for A2 scenario over Pakistan

14

Over Bangladesh, temperature change is very less in F1. It is almost less than 1C over the whole region but as we move forward to F2, the change shows a gradual increasing pattern, almost 2C temperature change is observed in central part of Bangladesh. In F3, 3 to 4C change is observed over the region. (Figure 9). In case of precipitation, no significant change is seen over Bangladesh in future.

3. 2.
4.

Figure 9:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for FI, F2 and F3 for A2 scenario over Bangladesh.

15

Over Nepal, the same pattern is observed as over the other regions. Temperature is in increasing pattern in coming futures. 6. 5.
7.

Ensemble temperature change of 13 GCMs ranges from 1 to 1.5C in Fl. Almost 4 to 4.5C change is observed in the last future (F3) over the region as shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for FI, F2 and F3 for A2 scenario over Nepal.

3.1.2 A1B Scenario The ensemble annual temperature changes of 17GCMs for AlB scenario show an increasing trend of temperature over the whole region. There is a contined increase in the changes as we move upward towards north over South Asia. A gradual increase is observed for different futures and F3 is warmer than FJ and F2. For FI, temperature increase is slightly less but if we move forward to F2 and F3, temperature change is seen gradually increasing and shows almost 4 to 4.SoC change in F3 as shown in Figure 11. In case of precipitation, there is no significant change observed in all three futures (FI, F2 and F3) over the region.

16

Figure 11:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for F 1, F2 and F3 for AlB scenario over South Asia

Over Pakistan, AlB shows a less temperature change as compared to A2 scenario. There is a rise of around 1.6C over Northern Pakistan, and about 1.4C over central parts (Punjab province) and over coastal areas. The rise in temperature is around 1.3C in F1 whereas this increases in F2 and almost 4C temperature change is observed over Northern Pakistan in F3 for AlB scenario (Figure 12 a). In case of precipitation, there is no significant change observed over Pakistan specifically over Northern Pakistan for all three futures (FI, F2, and F3) (Figure 12 b).

17

8.

Figure 12:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for Fl, F2 and F3 for AlB scenario over Pakistan.

Over Bangladesh, temperature change is quite less in Fl. It is almost less than 1C over the whole region but as we move forward to F2, this change is seen gradually increasing, almost 2C temperature change is observed in central parts of Bangladesh. In F3, almost 3C change is seen over the region. (Figure13). In case of precipitation, no significant change is seen over Bangladesh in future.

18

Figure 13:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for Fl, F2 and F3 for A1B scenario over Bangladesh

Over Nepal, the same pattern is observed as over the other regions. Temperature has an increasing pattern in coming futures. Ensemble temperature change of 17 GCMs ranges between 1 to 1.7C in Fl. Almost 4 to 4.5C change is observed in the last future (F3) over the region as shown in Figure 14. No significant change is observed in precipitation.

19

\\

10. 9.
11.

Figure 14:

(a) Mean annual ensemble change of temperature (C) and (b) precipitation (%) for FI, F2 and F3 for A1B scenario over Nepal

3.2 Projections over Pakistan and its Northern and Southern parts
Here average values over actual geographical areas of Pakistan, Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan (Figure 15), are worked out to get a more refined picture of future changes. Here FHN and FHS represent northern and southern parts of Pakistan respectively. In Annex. III and IV seasonal and monthly means values are tabulated for these regions. Projected temperature changes over Northern Pakistan, simulated by 17 GCMs and their ensemble values are listed in Table 4 for both A2 and A IB scenarios. In 2080s, the rise in temperature is 4.67C for A2 scenario whereas in A1B the change is 4.12C. Also the error associated with the ensemble temperature change is not very high and remains below 10% for all futures and for both A2 & A1B scenarios.

20

Figure 15: Grids covering (a) Pakistan, (b) Northern Pakistan (FHN) and (c) Southern Pakistan (FHS)

Table 4: Projected Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSLCM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIR07MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)

A1B 2080s
4.80 3.10 4.46 3.80 5.41 5.19 4.94 5.08 4.28 5.35 6.11 3.74 4.48

2050s
2.63 1.60 2.62 2.33 2.65 3.37 2.70 3.35 2.63 3.11 3.72 2.16 2.54
---

2020s
1.26 1.09 1.59 1.51 1.54 1.78 1.50 2.03 1.40 1.82 2.10 1.11 1.45 1.17 1.74 0.85 2.45 1.55 0.10

2050s
2.96 2.05 2.93 2.63 3.45 3.55 2.97 3.39 2.68 3.49 3.85 1.98 2.64 2.54 2.72 2.15 4.24 2.95 0.15

2080s
4.22 2.76 3.43 3.63 5.38 5.06 4.51 4.03 3.82 4.66 5.21 3.07 3.72 3.23 3.96 3.23 6.19 4.12 0.23

1.18 0.85 1.55 1.12 1.20 1.92 1.28 1.93 1.42 1.77 1.89 1.23 1.16

-----

-----

---

-----

(X X) 1.42 0.10

--------4.67 0.23

2.72 0.16

21

In Table 5, projected precipitation changes over Northern Pakistan are tabulated. There is no significant change observed in all three futures for both A2 and A1B scenario. In most of the cases, the uncertainties are higher then the actual changes. Table 5: Projected Precipitation Changes A1 (%) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan A2 GCMs
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5!MPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALSg 1.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)

AlB 2080s
7.89 15.99 24.56 11.83 -4.79 10.18 -1.49 -21.25 -5.66 -13.86 -22.09 7.94 5.40 --------1.13 3.95

2020s
13.72 10.03 10.10 13.11 -4.84 2.32 0.22 -12.25 1.01 -4.47 -8.72 6.20 2.45 --------2.22 2.29

2050s
21.10 20.91 17.49 14.29 -2.12 -3.03 0.19 -11.15 0.02 -5.37 -13.47 5.10 2.92 --------3.61 3.21

2020s
9.08 7.57 9.95 -2.87 -5.34 1.54 0.44 -13.63 -0.36 -8.89 6.27 -1.23 -0.49 0.69 -2.17 -3.39 2.86 -0.741.48

2050s
1.56 9.45 12.21 8.36 -17.84 -7.41 -9.61 -14.42 -1.42 -11.03 -13.17 3.75 3.72 -0.14 -0.10 -0.21 6.11 -1.782.J 8

2080s
9.35 15.46 18.98 10.22 -16.46 -6.34 -4.71 -26.00 -3.55 -12.38 -15.14 8.63 7.27 6.89 6.16 -8.95 10.46 -0.733.08

(X~X)

Over Southern Pakistan, the rise in temperature at the end of this century would be around 4.22C for A2 scenario with an error of 0.18C, whereas for A1B scenario, this rise would be about 3.73C with the same error as for A2. (Table 6)

In Table 7, projected precipitation changes over Southern Pakistan are tabulated. Because of the large
errors associated with both the scenarios, no net conclusion about precipitation increase or decrease can be drawn. Averaged temperature values over whole of Pakistan are summarized in Table 8. There is a gradual increase in temperature up to 4.38C for A2 and 3.87C for A1B scenario at the end of this century.

In Table 9, projected precipitation changes over Pakistan are tabulated. Although the individual
GCMs are projecting different precipitation changes but the ensemble values, because of the large errors, are not showing any significant decrease or increase of precipitation for both scenarios.

22

Table 6:

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

A2 AlB 2080s
4.17 2.65 3.79 3.67 4.87 4.36 4.60 4.84 4.12 4.74 5.01 3.63 4.47

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSI\13-NCAR MRl-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAMSIMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires] IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GJSS_ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GrSS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-gl.O MIROC3.2 (medres)
-

2050s
2.41 1.36 2.21 2.24 2.43 2.58 2.38 3.18 2.41 2.83 3.13 2.10 2.48

2020s
1.04 0.89 1.30 1.27 1.34' 1.42 1.43 1.96 1.30 1.74 1.76 0.97 1.37 1.19 1.60 0.91 2.25 1.40 0.09

2050s
2.39 1.77 2.50 2.49 2.92 2.76 2.73 3.18 2.66 3.12 3.25 1.82 2.50 2.26 2.51 2.09 3.83 2.64 0.13

2080s
3.66 2.42 2.94 3.41 4.73 4.15 4.21 3.91 3.65 4.22 4.42 2.93 3.65 3.11 3.59 3.02 5.37 3.73 0.18

1.12 0.74 1.20 1.08 1.02 1.36 1.16 1.75 1.23 1.57 1.74 1.17 1.10

-----

-----

------

----1.25 0.08

-----

--4.22 0.18

(X x)

2.44 0.13

Table 7: GCMs

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

A2
2020s 17.16 17.30 16.63 30.13 -3.12 9.23 12.03 -11.25 14.78 -24.00 -34.78 -7.01 2.59 2050s 25.56 53.84 28.51 28.93 -6.76 -3.52 12.16 5.80 1.69 -27.81 -53.63 11.21 7.17 2080s 13.99 59.41 42.56 30.50 -16.97 11.60 27.78 -2.34 -10.70 -43.41 -66.1 2 -2.63 12.02 2020s 14.90 24.88 18.60 -1.59 -24.63 -0.51 20.74 -11.13 6.26 -32.00 -24.09 8.56 1.94 1.22 -23.46 -13.81 -20.21 -3.20 4.31

AlB
2050s 12.66 37.21 22.93 7.65 -0.82 -5.75 3.17 -0.08 -16.15 -36.40 -49.69 19.89 12.81 25.40 -23.15 3.12 -18.J8 -0.32 5.53 2080s 16.78 50.16 32.34 50.02 -38.02 -0.19 12.04 -12.93 -11.63 -40.70 -59.81 -6.73 9.34 35.93 -45.06 3.84 -10.46 -0.897.91

UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRJ-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAMSfMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS_EH FGOALS-g1.0 MffiOC3.2 (medres)
-

-------

---

---

------6.40 7.48

--------4.28 9.46

(X x)

3.05 5.12

23

,.

Table 8:

Projected Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRJ-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSlRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-I!1.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)
-

AlB 2080s
4.39 2.81 4.02 3.71 5.05 4.65 4.72 4.92 4.18 4.95 5.39 3.67 4.47

2050s
2.49
1.44

2020s
1.12 0.96 [.40 1.36 1.41 1.55 1.45 1.98 1.34 1.77 1.88 1.01 1.40 1.18 1.65 0.89 2.32 1.45 0.09

2050s
2.58 1.86 2.65 2.54 3.11 3.03 2.81 3.25 2.67 3.25 3.46 1.88 2.55 2.36 2.58 2.1 I 3.97 2.75 0.14

2080s
3.85 2.54 3.1 [ 3.48 4.95 4.47 4.31 3.95 3.71 4.37 4.70 2.98 3.67 3.15 3.72 3.09 5.65 3.87 0.20

1.14 0.78 1.32 1.09 1.08 1.55 1.20 1.81 1.29 1.64 1.79 1.19 1.12

2.35 2.27 2.51 2.86 2.49 3.24 2.49 2.93 3.33 2.12 2.50

-------

-----

-_.--2.54 0.31

--l.310.19

--------4.38 0.44

(X x)

Table 9:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5IMPI-OM MIR0C3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 IN"M-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CJVl3 GISS_AOM GISSEH FGOALS-g1.0 MlROC3.2 (medresl
-

A1B 2080s
9.63 40.82 35.04 15.36 -7.94 10.73 4.21 -14.21 -7.48 -22.47 -32.74 5.06 9.21

2050s
22.37 39.74 23.90 17.06 -3.32 -3.22 2.52 -4.84 0.62 -11.91 -23.18 6.77 5.37

2020s
10.73 17.47 14.98 -2.63 -10.32 0.75 4.39 '-12.70 2.02 -15.62 -10.58 1.44 0.91 0.77 -10.10 -7.63 -5.84

2050s
4.72 25.32 18.45 8.22 -13.45 -6.77 -7.13 -9.08 -6.72 -18.42 -22.00 8.15 8.95 3.83 -8.69 1.14 -3.05

2080s
11.46 35.30 26.76 17.75 -22.03 _3.96 -1.45 -21.14 -6.46 -20.62 -25.95 4.44 8.46 11.40 -20.65 -3.75 2.57

14.70 14.19 13.90 16.33 -4.40 5.00 2.52 -11.88 5.96 -J 0.16 -15.03 2.60 2.53
---

---

----2.79 2.94

--------.-

-----

-----

(X x)

5.53 4.63

3.48 5.78

-1.29 2.32

-0.97 3.05

-0.4 4.36

24

3.2.1 Projections over agro climatic zones of Pak1stan

To assess the changes in temperature and precipitation over the agro climatic zones of Pakistan (As per requirement of Agriculture section of GCISC), four agro climatic zones termed as FHA (Humid/Sub Humid), FHB (Semi-arid), FHC (Arid) and FHD (Hyper Arid) respectively were considered (Annex I). After analysis, it was found that the results for FHA and FHB were not significantly different probably due to the coarse resolution of GCMs. Similarly the results for FHC and FHD also looked identical within their uncertainties. So the results are given here only for the combination of regions FHA and FHB (labeled as FHAB Humid/Sub humid and Semi Arid) and that of regions FHC and FHD (labeled as FHCD Arid and Hyper Arid) as shown in Figure 16. Results over these four regions are tabulated in Annex 1. Also in Annex. III and IV seasonal and monthly means values are tabulated. Future change over agro-climatic zones in Pakistan shows that the temperature will rise up to 4.71oC for A2 scenario and 4.16C for A1B scenario as shown in Table 10.

,.

Figure 16: (a) FHAB (Humid/Sub-humid and Semi Arid climate) zone and (b) FHCD (Arid Hyper
Arid climate) zone of Pakistan Projected temperature changes over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid agro-climatic) zone is tabulated in Table 11. In 2080s the, rise in temperature is 4.26 C for A2 scenario whereas in A1B, the rise is 3.76C.

Projected precipitation changes differ in magnitude but there is no significant change in precipitation over FHAB (Humid! sub-humid & semi-arid agro-climatic) zone for both A2 and A1B scenarios (Table 12). Same is the case for FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic) zone. There is no significant change in precipitation for both scenarios. (Table 13)

25

Table 10:

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-BadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5fMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS_ER GFDL-CMl.l GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-gl.0 MIROC3.2 (medres) (X x) 1.17 0.88 1.62 1.12 1.21 1.95 1.28 2.00 1.43 1.75 1.89 1.22 1.17

A2 2050s
2.62 1.65 2.72 2.31 2.65 3.42 2.73 3.44 2.62 3.09 3.76 2.15 2.57

A1B 2080s
4.79 3.18 4.62 3.79 5.43 5.23 4.92 5.21 4.27 5.38 6.19 3.72 4.48

2020s
1.27 1.13 1.65 1.51 1.53 1.79 1.49 2.06 1.40 1.79 2.11 1.10 1.45 1.16 1.72 0.86 2.44 1.56 0.10

2050s
2.97 2.11 3.03 2.61 3.48 3.60 2.97 3.47 2.66 3.49 3.86 1.98 2.67 2.55 2.71 2.17 4.26 2.98 0.16

2080s
4.22 2.83 3.54 3.62 5.41 5.12 4.49 4.16 3.81 4.65 5.29 3.07 3.73 3.22 3.96 3.26 6.29 4.16 0.23

---------

-------

--2.75 0.16

--------4.71 0.23

1.44 0.10

Table 11:

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone) A2 AlB 2080s
4.24 2.67 3.78 3.68 4.93 4.42 4.66 4.82 4.14 4.81 5.15 3.65 4.46

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5fMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CMl.O CSIRO-MK3.0 CI'\'RM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MlROC3.2 (medres) 1.13 0.74 1.20 1.08 1.04 1.41 1.17 1.74 1.24 1.60 1.77 1.18 1.09

2050s
2.43 1.36 2.20 2.25 2.45 2.65 2.42 3.17 2.43 2.87 3.22 2.11 2.47

2020s
1.06 0.89 1.30 1.30 1.37 1.46 1.44 1.95 1.30 1.77 1.81 0.98 1.38 1.19 1.62 0.90 2.27 1.41 0.09

2050s
2.44 1.77 2.50 2.51 2.99 2.82 2.77 3.18 2.67 3.17 3.34 1.84 2.50 2.30 2.54 2.09 3.85 2.66 0.13

2080s
3.72 2.42 2.93 3.43 4.81 4.22 4.26 3.88 3.67 4.29 4.52 2.96 3.64 3.13 3.64 3.03 5.40 3.76 0.19

---------

(X x )

--------2.46 0.13

--------4.26 0.19

1.260.08

26

Table 12:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECRAM5/MPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM 3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS ER FGOALS-g l.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)
-

A2 2050s
20.34 12.59 15.73 13.98 -2.07 -2.14 -0.28 -10.37 0.78 -4.78 -11.61 5.22 2.21 -------.-3.05 2.78

AlB 2080s
8.37 8.35 21.66 12.51 -5.01 10.37 -2.35 -20.61 -3.52 -13.12 -20.18 8.76 6.62 --------0.91 3.61

2020s
9.02 2.70 8_88 -2.25 -4.05 2.05 0.06 -13.24 -0.09 -8.11 -5.25 -0.81 0.94 0.80 -0.82 -3.25 4.87 -0.50 1.35

2050s
1.44 3.43 10.80 9.31 -18.04 -6.84 -10.00 -13.67 -0.50 -10.53 -11.64 3.22 2.54 -0.54 1.44 -0.64 8.47 -1.87 2.06

2080s
9.47 7.40 16.76 9.97 -15.70 -5.62 -5.22 -25.18 -2.03 -11.25 -13.74 9.54 6.92 6.29 -3.41 -8.97 13.57 -0.66 2_86

13.21 6.40 8.69 11.95 -4.75 2.04 -0.75 -11.49 0.94 -4.27 -7.98 6.53 2.21 --------1.75 2.09

(XX)

Table 13:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs Region FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-RadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECRAM5IMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDI,-CM2.0 CSIRO-MX3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-gl.O MIR0C3.2 (medres)

A1B 2080s
16.67 57.25 42.81 23.06 -12.74 10.60 21.69 -7.35 -lI.48 -39.97 -62.89 -1.64 11.04

2050s
29_06 54.24 28.73 25.99 -5.90 -4.90 9.27 1.66 1.03 -24.67 -50.52 10.38 7.05

2020s
15.53 25.40 18.32 -4.27 -22.86 -1.31 15.77 -12.34 5.11 -28.79 -24.23 5.96 0.97 -0.39 -20.82 -13.07 -18.60 -3.514.02

2050s
14.64 36.72 23.10 6.29 -4.97 -6.77 -1.41 -3.95 -13.45 -33.22 -46.54 19.30 12.25 20.15 -20.50 3.00 -16.68 -0.71 5.18

2080s
19.06 50.32 33_03 37.58 -35.10 -3.07 8.20 -17.15 -10.72 -38.14 -55.23 -4.82 9.57 31.20 -40.32 1.93 -11.20 -1.46 7.28

19.61 18.19 17.16 28.21 -4.49 7.92 9.94 -12.70 11.62 -20.83 -31.15 -4.99 2.58

(X X)

--------3.16 4.80

--------6.26 7.27

-------

--3.62 8.90

27

..
3.2.2 Projections of watershed basins of Indus river system
As per requirement of the GCISC Water Section, Pakistan is divided into three water shed basins (Annex II). But again in view of the coarser resolution of GCMs, three water sheds were merged into two regions as shown in Figure 17. In Annex II, we have tabulated values for all the three water sheds separately. Also in Annex. III and IV seasonal and monthly means values are tabulated.

Figure 17 represents the two watershed basins on Indus river system. The first water shed comprises Kabul and Jhelum river catchments and the second one corresponds to the whole water shed of river Indus.

Figure 17:

Water shed comprises (a) Kabul and Jhelum river catchments and (b) the whole water shed of river Indus.

Table 14 shows the projected temperature changes over Kabul & Jhelum basin. At the end of this century, rise in temperature is 4.78C for A2 scenario, whereas in A1B the rise is 4.20C. Projected temperature change over whole water basin is 4.81C for A2 scenario whereas in A1B the rise is 4.29C simulated by ensemble of 17 GCMs (Table 15). Projected precipitation changes over Kabul and Jhelum are tabulated in Table 16. No clear cut picture can be drawn because of low percentage changes and generally large uncertainties associated with them.

In Table 17, projected precipitation changes over the water basin (Kabul, Jhelum and Indus river) are tabulated. Again the percentage change is not significant for both A2 and A1B scenarios.

28

..
Table 14: Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCMNCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5IMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (medres)
-

A1B 2080s
5.10 3.12 4.71 3.78 5.42 5.37 5.14 5.10 4.41 5.39 6.16 3.82 4.58
---

2050s
2.83 1.68 2.88 2.36 2.72 3.55 2.80 3.43 2.73 3.16 3.74 2.18 2.63

2020s
1.42 1.15 1.70 1.51 1.54 1.90 1.61 2.13 1.48 1.80 2.13 1.12 1.51 1.12 1.79 0.83 2.57 1.610.10

2050s
3.22 2.10 3.14 2.61 3.53 3.72

2080s
4.51 2.80 3.67 3.62 5.36 5.26 4.70 4.07 3.91 4.70 5.21 3.11 3.83 3.22 3.97 3.18 6.29 4.20 0.23

1.29 0.89 1.72 1.15 1.23 2.07 1.34 2.05 1.51 1.82 1.89 1.24 1.20

3.lJ
3.47 2.76 3.54 3.86 2.01 2.76 2.55 2.74 2.13 4.41 3.040.16

---------

-----

---

-----

---

--4.78 0.23

(XX)

1.49 0.10

2.82 0.16

Table 15:

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum and Indus River) A2 A1B 2080s
4.96 3.27 5.29 3.80 5.41 5.56 4.80 5.46 4.46 5.46 6.03 3.71 4.34

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPIOM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (rocdres)
-

2050s
2.76 1.77 3.22 2.29 2.66 3.64 2.71 3.52 2.73 3.19 3.65 2.15 2.48

2020s
1.40 1.17 1.92 1.50 1.47 1.89 1.51 2.17 1.54 1.82 2.05 1.15 1.42 1.17 1.65 0.92 2.76 1.62 0.11

2050s
3.15 2.14 3.49 2.62 3.40 3.79 2.89 3.63 2.74 3.54 3.74 2.01 2.60 2.56 2.69 2.23 5.07 3.08 0.19

2080s
4.41 2.92 4.07 3.63 5.27 5.37 4.38 4.42 3.92 4.69 5.17 3.05 3.62 3.25 3.91 3.35 7.58 4.29 0.27

1.26 0.92 1.94 1.09 1.15 2.04 1.28 2.12 1.58 1.76 1.82 1.20 1.15

-_.
.. -

--_ ..

----1.48 0.11

----2.830.16

--------4.81 0.23

(xX)

29

Table 16:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum nver

A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPIOM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (rocdres)
-

A1B 2080s
-0.13 4.47 30.92 10.29 -9.12 5.83 -4.55 -22.43 -13.97 -17.74 -26.36 1.45 3.33

2050s
17.81 8.03 18.39 11.22 -6.09 -4.63 -0.57 -12.96 -3.19 -5.95 -15.06 -0.43 -0.10

2020s
6.85 0.30 13.01 -3.12 -7.34 0.89 0.81 -13.46 -2.39 -9.60 -5.49 -2.96 -1.12 -0.22 -4.93 -1.72 4.66 -1.521.50

2050s
-3.52 1.03 13.22 7.59 -23.45 -11.64 -10.85 -15.70 -4.81 -12.28 -13.01 2.64 2.62 -2.66 -4.57 -0.81 4.95 -4.192.27

2080s
4.61 1.34 18.51 5.71 -21.28 -10.18 -6.96 -26.57 -8.79 -14.34 -16.77 6.33 3.75 4.62 -11.66 -11.39 9.35 -4.342.96

10.80 5.08 10.56 10.51 -6.56 0.32 2.02 -11.37 -0.86 -3.46 -8.86 5.92 3.18

-----

----1.33 2.05

--------0.50 2.93

---

-------

(xX)

-2.924.26

Table 17:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum and Indus River)

A2 GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPIOM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (rocdres)
-

A1B 2080s
5.92 0.63 12.81 13.19 -1.33 11.60 -1.97 -17.96 -3.17 -8.26 -14.51 6.75 2.30

2050s
16.39 3.35 8.56 13.65 0.64 -1.51 -0.40 -10.03 0.91 -2.28 -7.51 3.20 -0.13

2020s
7.22 -2.98 4.87 -0.63 -1.66 2.44 1.11 -11.78 -0.35 -5.36 -3.93 -1.73 -0.41 -0.45 -0.59 -1.94 6.56 -0.57 1.09

2050s
0.62 -0.71 4.47 9.07 -12.10 -2.13 -6.94 -13.00 0.56 -5.56 -8.24 -0.53 1.48 2.07 3.33 0.51 11.37 -0.93 1.61

2080s
7.22 1.45 9.40 10.18 -8.96 -'1.30 -4.93 -22.22 -2.85 -5.10 -8.16 5.75 3.49 9.44 -1.16 -5.13 18.44 0.33 2.31

9.76 1.79 2.09 11.19 -1.94 2.90 -1.47 -10.24 0.63 -2.88 -6.14 3.96 1.46

---

---

------0.85 1.61

-----

-----

-1.91 2.07

----0.46 2.74

(xX)

30

4. Projections over Nepal

There are four climatic seasons in Nepal: March-May (spring), June-August (summer), September-November (autunm) and December-February (winter). The monsoon is approximately from the end of June to the middle of September. About 80 per cent of the rain falls during that period, so the remaining part of the year is almost dry. Spring and autumn are the most pleasant seasons whereas winter temperatures drop to freezing point with a high level of snowfall in the mountains. Summer and late spring temperatures range from 28C in the hilly regions to more than 40C in the Terai. In winter, average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Terai range from a brisk 7C to a mild 23C. The central valleys experience a minimum temperature often falling below freezing point. Much colder temperatures prevail at higher elevations. The Kathmandu Valley, at an altitude of 13 10m (4297ft), has a mild climate [source: http://www.southtravels.com!asialnepaUweather.htmlJ. In Figure 18, GCM interpolated grids are shown over Nepal.

Figure18:

Grids covering Nepal

Projected ensemble changes over Nepal show that in 2080s, rise in temperature is 4.29C for A2 scenario and in A1B, the rise is 3.83C as listed in Table 18. Amount of precipitation over Nepal increases up to 6.22 % for A2 scenario whereas in A1B, the rise in precipitation is 3.69% at the end of the century (Table 19). High uncertainties do not offer a clear change in precipitation.

31

Table 18:

Projected Temperature Changes , T (C) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPIOM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (rocdres)
-

A2 2050s
2.36 1.46 2.32 1.77 2.35 2.62 3.04 2.81 2.89 2.88 3.28 2.22 2.07

AlB 2080s
4.22 2.84 4.00 3.34 4.86 4.52 5.15 4.57 4.74 4.86 5.29 3.66 3.78

2020s
1.13 0.99 1.39 1.05 1.37 1.43 1.58 1.64 1.64 1.77 1.65 1.14 1.l0 1.14 1.69 0.90 2.21 1.40 0.08

2050s
2.51 1.83 2.54 2.21 3.01 2.70 3.23 2.97 2.90 3.23 3.34 1.91 2.21 2.10 2.87 1.92 4.01 2.68 0.15

2080s
3.69 2.42 3.23 3.03 4.86 4.07 4.88 3.79 4.11 4.36 4.71 2.99 3.16 2.92 4.17 2.90 5.80 3.83 0.22

1.01 0.91 1.46 0.70 1.02 1.41 1.35 1.39 1.67 1.55 1.63 1.26 0.79

-----

---

----1.24 0.20

------2.47 0.33

--------4.29 0.47

(xX)

Table 19:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P(%) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPIOM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS_AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (rocdres) (xx) 3.60 -5.42 -3.55 14.32 -9.71 1.89 -28.29 -6.71 -15.18 -1.24 11.47 -8.82 0.88

A2 2050s
10.56 11.02 1.36 24.25 -7.42 12.87 -34.93 -6.16 -18.61 8.55 28.66 -6.43 -0.17
--_.-

AlB 2080s
14.82 14.51 10.63 22.60 -7.81 18.50 -32.98 -4.20 -32.47 12.89 57.14 -5.02 12.25

2020s
5.81 4.44 4.72 12.91 -5.01 5.72 -20.39 -8.86 -9.06 0.94 16.74 -4.60 2.74 -2.67 -17.08 -15.30 8.81 -J.l82.55

2050s
14.45 10.50 7.33 21.88 -7.77 14.83 -25.98 -3.43 -22.10 5.65 31.90 -5.23 9.96 17.50 -15.39 -7.27 12.28 3.48 3.85

2080s
16.77 13.84 6.69 32.81 -10.49 23.57 -36.25 -8.39 -32.42 6.62 44.56 -5.09 10.57 23.34 -36.19 -8.69 21.50 3.69 5.76

-------

-----

-----

---3.60 3.08

--1.81 4.76

----6.22 6.56

32

5. Projections over Bangladesh

Bangladesh and eastern parts of India have a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Regional climatic differences in this flat country are minor. Three seasons are generally recognized: a hot, humid summer from March to June; a cool, rainy monsoon season from June to October; and a cool, dry winter from October to March. In general, maximum summer temperatures range between 32C and 38e. April is the warmest month in most parts of the country. January is the coldest month, when the average temperature for most of the country is 10oe. Heavy rainfall is characteristic of Bangladesh. With the exception of the relatively dry western region of Rajshahi, where the annual rainfall is about 160 centimeters, most parts of the country receive at least 200 centimeters of rainfall per annum. [source: http://worldfacts.us/bangladesh-geography.htrnl].

In Figure 19, grids only over actual geographical boundaries of Bangladesh are shown and area averaged values of temperature and precipitation are shown tabulated in Tables 20 and 21.

Figure 19:

Grids covering Bangladesh

Projected temperature over Bangladesh shows an increase of 3.41 C for A2 scenario and 3C for A1B scenario in 2080s as listed in Table 20. In Table 21, projected precipitation changes over Bangladesh are tabulated. In 2080s, the amount of precipitation is found increased up to 8.39% for A2 scenario whereas in AlB the rise in precipitation is 7.37% simulated by ensemble of 17 GCMs.

33

Table 20:

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh A2 A1B 2080s

4.15 2.40 3.23 2.59 3.73 2.68 4.21 3.16 3.53 3.94 3.89 3.09 3.69

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5/MPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-g1.0 MIROC3.2 (mcdres)

2050s
2.27 1.27 1.84 1.26 1.69 1.36 2.36 1.83 2.24 2.38 2.46 1.76 2.01

2020s
1.01 0.82 1.00 0.61 0.87 0.67 1.19 1.09 1.17 1.33 1.11 0.75 1.10 0.88 1.22 0.71 0.99 0.970.05

2050s
2.40 1.64 2.00 1.69 2.16 1.44 2.58 2.00 2.15 2.86 2.56 1.35 2.09 1.71 2.16 1.58 2.27 2.04 0.10

2080s
3.69 2.14 2.69 2.52 3.73 2.51 3.95 2.56 3.13 3.65 3.58 2.28 2.87 2.54 3.21 2.44 3.47 3.00 0.14

0.8\ 0.68 0.97 0.32 0.66 0.64 1.03 0.87 1.24 1.26 1.14 1.01 0.67

--------0.87 0.17

--------1.90 0.27

--------3.41 0.38

(x+ x )

Table 21:

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs Bangladesh A2 AlB 2080s

15.37 7.06 12.89 7.81 9.99 20.45 -8.99 0.78 10.23 10.56 15.53 -0.74 8.10
---

GCMs 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAMSIMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-CM3.0 GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDI,-CM2.0 CsmO-MK3.o CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISS EH FGOALS-gl.0 MIR0C3.2 (medres)

2050s
9.86 3.07 1.16 5.06 4.96 14.09 -12.76 1.38 8.06 1.94 0.85 -1.59 -0.75
---

2020s
1.57 1.66 -0.83 5.36 2.66 6.84 -7.32 -0.48 6.16 -0.73 -1.22 -1.76 -0.83 -0.80 0.99 -7.89 7.12 0.62 1.04

2050s
8.28 5.50 9.85 7.47 8.39 20.98 -4.82 2.60 5.19 -0.94 3.68 -2.44 7.40 6.30 3.88 1.11 9.64 5.421.41

2080s
14.29 7.11 8.94 8.02 7.82 21.92 -11.55 4.35 3.99 1.52 12.19 4.59 14.47 8.64 2.03 -0.20 17.11 7.37 1.86

2.20 -0.12 -4.11 2.86 -0.06 2.85 -9.68 -2.90 4.16 -5.24 -1.16 -3.46 1.33

---

-----

-----

-----

---1.02 1.09

--2.72 1.79

--8.39 2.15

(x x )

34

6. Conclusions
Output from simulations of temperature and precipitation by 17 global climate models used in the IPCC AR4 are used for validation as well as for the development of future climate change scenarios over South Asia region, separately for Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Across all models, the spatial patterns of mean temperatures simulated by the GCMs are very similar to the observed climatology. But ECHAM and HadCM3 GCMs show the minimum bias and have good agreement with observed CRU data almost all over South Asia as compared to other GCMs. While the other GCMs generate different biases over different regions. In the case of precipitation, again ECHAM and HadCM3 well captured the CRU climatology and showed the minimum bias as compared to other GCMs. For future projections, three time slices each of 30-years, centered on 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were examined for the range of future projections of temperature and precipitation for A2 and AlB scenarios using ensemble approach. The temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan, and the temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer. In the case of precipitation projections, the rather large errors make it difficult to draw any definite conclusions about the changes in precipitation. There is, however, some indication of precipitation increase in summer and decrease in winter in Southern Pakistan. For all the three time periods in both the scenarios, the rises in temperature on annual as well as seasonal basis in Pakistan and Nepal are comparable, while those in Bangladesh are relatively lower. Furthermore, there is relatively a larger temperature increase in winter than in summer in all the three countries. There are clear indications that in all the three countries, precipitation will increase in summer and decrease in winter (only a slight decrease in winter in Pakistan's case), while on annual basis it will increase in Bangladesh but have no significant change (within the large errors) in Nepal and Pakistan.

35

References

Gordon HE, Rotstayn LD, McGregor JL, Dix :M:R, Kowalczyk, O'Farrell SP,Waterman LJ, Hirst AC,Wilson SG, Collier MA, Watterson IG, Elliott TI (2002) The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model (Electronic publication). Asoendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 60, 130 pp .

Diansky NA, Volodin EM (2002) Simulation of present-day climate with a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. Izv Atmos Ocean Phys (Engl Transl) 38: 732- 747 -

Salas-Melia D, Chauvin F, Deque M, Douville H, Gueremy JF, Marquet P, Planton S, Royer JF, Tyteca S (2006) Description and validation of the CNRM-CM3 global coupled modeL Clim Dyn (in press)

Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5=1vlPI-OM. J Climate 19: 3952-3972 Delworth TL, Broccoli AJ, Rosati A, Stouffer RJ, Balaji V, Beesley JA, Cooke WF, Dixon KW, Dunne J, Dunne KA, Durachta JW, Findell KL, Ginoux P, Gnanadesikan A, Gordon CT, Griggies SM, Gudgil R, Harrison MJ, Held IM:, Hemler RS, Horowitz LW, Klein SA, Knutson TR, Kushner PJ, Langenhorst AR, Lee HC, Lin SJ, Lu J, Malyshev SL, Milly PCD, Ramaswamy V, Russell J, Schwarzkopf:MD, Shevliakova E, Sirutis JJ, Spelman MJ, Stem WF, Winton M, Wittenberg AT, Wyman B, Zeng F, Zhang R (2006) GFDL's CM2 Global coupled climate models - Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J Climate 19: 643-674 Marti. 0, Braconnot P, Bellier J, Benshile R, Bony S, Brockmann P, Cadulle P, Caubel A, Denvil S, Dufresne JL, Fairhead L, Filiberti MA, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix JY, Hourdin F, Krinner G, Levy C, Musat I, Talandier C (2005) The new !PSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Pads, 86 pp Schmidt GA, Ruedy R, Hansen JE, Aleinov I, Bell N, Bauer M, Bauer S, Cairns B, Canute V, Cheng Y, DelGenio A, Faluvegi G, Friend AD, Hall TM, Hu Y, Kelley M, Kiang NY, Koch D, Lacis AA, Lerner J, Lo KK, Miller RL, Nazarenko L, Oinas V, Perlwitz Jan, Perlwitz Judith, Rind D; Romanou A, Russel GL, Sato M, Shindell DT, Stone PH, Sun S, Tausnev N, Thresher D, Yao MS (2006) Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to insitu, satellite and reanalysis data. J Climate 19: 153-192

K-l Model Developers (2004) K-l Coupled GCM (MIROC) description. In: Hasumi H, Emori S (eds) K-l Tech Report No.1, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 39 pp

Washington WM, Weatherly IVY, Meehl GA, Semtner AIJr, Bettge TW, Craig AP, Strand WG Jr, Arblaster J,Wayland VB, James R, Zhang Y (2000) Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Clim Dyn 16: 755-774

36

Yukimoto S, Noda A, Kitoh A, Sugi M, Kitamura Y, Hosaka M, Shibata K, Maeda S, Uchiyama T (2001) The new Meteorological Research Institute Coupled GCM (11RI-CGCM2)Model climate and variability. Papers Meteor Geophys 51: 47-88 Yu Y, Zhang X, Guo Y (2004) Global coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models in LASG IAP. Adv Atmos Sci 21: 444-455 Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Katten-berg A, Maskell K (1996) Climate change 1995. The science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Retrieved on 2007-02-02.

37

Annex I

38

13. 12.

Agro Climatic Zones

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHA (Humid/Sub-humid Agroclimatic Zone) 14.

A2 GCMS 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5IMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-Cl'\B.O GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISSEH FGOALS-gl.O MIROC3.2 (moores) (xx) 1.19 0.92 1.84 1.14 1.21 2.05 1.27 2.10 1.53 1.71 1.83 1.22

A1B 2080s
4.84 3.37 5.05 3.87 5.46 5.45 4.76 5.35 4.37 5.37 6.10 3.67 4.48

2050s
2.65 1.80 3.02 2.34 2.64 3.59 2.68 3.51 2.68 3.05 3.65 2.15 2.57

2020s
1.29 1.21 1.87 1.56 1.52 1.84 1.43 2.11 1.49 1.74 2.07 1.13 1.45 l.J6 1.64 0.90 2.53 1.58 0.10

2050s
3.02 2.23 3.30 2.65 3.48 3.78 2.84 3.56 2.66 3.40 3.75 2.03 2.66 2.58 2.68 2.24 4.54 3.02 0.16

2080s
4.25 3.01 3.87 3.73 5.40 5.32 4.33 4.34 3.87 4.56 5.20 3.06 3.71 3.22 3.93 3.38 6.80 4.23 0.24

1.18

--------1.480.11

--M. __

-------

----2.80 0.15

--4.78 0.22

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHB (Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

A2 GCMS 2020s
UKMO-HadCM3 PCM-NCAR CCSM3-NCAR MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ECHAM5IMPI-OM MIROC3.2 (hires) IPSL-CM4 INM-Cl'\B.O GISS ER GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 CNRM-CM3 GISS AOM GISSEH FGOALS-gl.O MIROC3.2 (moores) (xx) 1.14 0.85 1.42 1.11 1.21 1.89 1.29 1.91 1.33 1.77 1.94 1.21 1.17
---

AlB 2080s
4.72 3.04 4.23 3.73 5.40 5.08 5.05 5.10 4.17 5.37 6.27 3.75 4.49

2050s
2.58 1.53 2.46 2.28 2.66 3.30 2.76 3.38 2.57 3.10 3.83 2.14 2.58
---

2020s
1.23 1.07 1.46 1.47 1.54 1.75 1.53 2.02 1.32 1.82 2.14 1.06 1.46 1.15 1.80 0.82 2.36 1.53 0.10

2050s
2.90 2.01 2.79 2.58 3.49 3.48 3.06 3.41 2.65 3.54 3.95 1.93 2.69 2.53 2.74 2.11 4.03 2.93 0.15

2080s
4.16 2.69 3.25 3.53 5.42 4.99 4.62 4.03 3.75 4.71 5.36 3.06 3.76 3.21 3.99 3.16 5.84 4.09 0.23

---

----1.40 0.10

------2.71 0.16

-.------

-.-4.65 0.24

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHC (Arid Agro-climatic Zone)

41

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHA (Humid/Sub-humid Agro climatic Zone)

42

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over PHC (Arid Agro-climatic Zone)

43

Annex II

44

Water Shed Regions

45

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

Projected Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over Kabul

46

Projected Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Jhelum

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

47

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul

Projected Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Jhelum

48

Annex III

49

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T C by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

50

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

51

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

52

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

53

Projected summer (J J AS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

54

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs aver Pakistan

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

55

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

56

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

57

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/ Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

58

Projected Winter (D1FM) Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid & Hyper-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Projected winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid & Hyper Arid Zone)

59

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

60

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs' over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

61

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes. T (C) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum & Indus River)

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum & Indus River)

62

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes P (%) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

63

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

64

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum & Indus River)

65

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

66

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over epal

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

67

Projected Summer (JJAS) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

Projected Summer (JJAS) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

68

Projected Winter (DJFM) Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

Projected Winter (DJFM) Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

69

Annex IV

70

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Northern Pakistan

71

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Southern Pakistan

72
"

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Pakistan

73

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHAB (Humid/Sub-humid & Semi-arid Agro-climatic Zone)

74

Projected Monthly Temperat.ure Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid and Hyper-arid Agro Climatic Zone)

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over FHCD (Arid and Hyper-arid Agro Climatic Zone)

75

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Upper Indus Basin

76

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Kabul & Jhelum River Basin

77

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum & Indus River)

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Water Basin (Kabul, Jhelum & Indus River)

78

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes, T (C) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P C%) by 17 GCMs over Nepal

79

Projected Monthly Temperature Changes T (C) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

Projected Monthly Precipitation Changes, P (%) by 17 GCMs over Bangladesh

80

"

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Global change science is being aggressively pursued around the world. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre was created in May 2002 to initiate this multidisciplinary effort in Pakistan. The main objective of the Centre is to comprehend the phenomenon of global change, scientifically determine its likely impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Pakistan and develop strategies to counter the adverse effects, if any. Another function of the Centre is to establish itself as a national focal point for providing cohesion to global change related activities at the national level and for linking it with international global research. An important function of the Centre is to help develop manpower that is capable of studying and participating in the international effort to study the global change phenomenon. The Centre also works to increase the awareness of the public, the scientific community and the policy planners in the country to global change.

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad Pakistan Telephone: (+92-51) 9230226 - 8,2077386 Fax: (+92-51) 2077385 E-mail: gcisc@comsats.net.pk Web: www.gcisc.org.pk