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CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (`cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Brew/Distilleries 8,327 1.1 1123/450 239,266 10 17,478 5,318 UNSP.BO UNSP@IN
United Spirits
Rising Spirits....
KFAs bankruptcy can lead to better price discovery for USL: United Spirits (USL) is promoted by United Breweries Holding (UBH, 28%), which is also the promoter of Kingfisher Airlines (KFA). According to UBHs FY2011 Annual Report, the company has given guarantees worth `9,135cr on behalf of Kingfisher Airlines (KFA). If KFA goes bankrupt, UBH will have to repay KFAs debt and other liabilities (which are guaranteed by UBH), which can only happen if UBH offloads its stake in United Breweries Ltd. (UBL), USL or sell its other fixed assets or subsidiaries. If UBH plans to offload its stake in USL, we believe it would lead to better price discovery for USL, as it is presently trading at its historically low valuations and the stake sale would be at a premium. In the past also, companies have been known to pay huge premium to buy majority stakes in such companies, thereby leading to a significant increase in stock prices in a short period of time. Problems with KFA not to affect USLs fundamentals: Although USL and KFA have the same promoter, they are involved in different businesses that are not interconnected in any way. We believe USLs stocks have overreacted to all the negative news of KFA, although its business has continued to show strong growth overall. USL achieved the tag of the worlds largest spirit company in volumes at the end of FY2011, and it is expected to maintain this position in FY2012 also. However, the company has recently been facing concerns regarding its mounting debt and is trying to raise US$225 through FCCB issue, which will help it to reduce its interest cost over the coming quarters. The money raised will be partially utilized to repay debts, which will bring down USLs interest cost and lead to lower cash outflow. Valuations too attractive to be ignored: The negative news of KFA led to a significant decline in USLs stock price. However, we believe the impact of KFAs performance has already been reflected in USLs stock price, and USL is now expected to get re-rated going ahead, based solely on its fundamental performance. We estimate USLs revenue to witness a 11.5% CAGR and net profit to post a 22.1% CAGR over FY2012-14E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at only 15.0x FY2013E and 12.3x FY2014E earnings. We believe the valuations are quite attractive and, thus, recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `884, valuing the stock at 17x FY14 EPS of `52. Key financials
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net Sales % chg Adj.Net Profit % chg Adj. EPS (`) EBITDA Margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
`637 `884
12 Months
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 28.0 2.5 54.7 14.8
3m 13.1 29.6
1yr
3yr
FY2011
7,376 15.9 431 94.4 34.3 15.6 14.1 10.8 10.2 1.9 1.9 11.9
FY2012E
8,483 15.0 438 1.7 34.8 15.5 16.4 11.1 10.2 1.7 1.7 11.2
FY2013E
9,501 12.0 536 22.2 42.5 15.7 15.0 11.0 10.5 1.6 1.6 9.9
FY2014E
10,546 11.0 653 22.0 51.9 16.0 12.3 12.0 11.4 1.4 1.4 8.8
Sharan Lillaney
022-39357800 Ext: 6811 sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com
United Spirits
Quick take
Investment arguments
KFAs bankruptcy can lead to better price discovery for USL
United Spirits (USL) is promoted by United Breweries Holding (UBH, 28%), which is also the promoter of Kingfisher Airlines (KFA). According to UBHs FY2011 Annual Report, the company has given guarantees worth `9,135cr on behalf of Kingfisher Airlines (KFA). If KFA goes bankrupt, UBH will have to repay KFAs debt and other liabilities (which are guaranteed by UBH), which can only happen if UBH offloads its stake in United Breweries Ltd. (UBL), USL or sell its other fixed assets or subsidiaries. If UBH plans to offload its stake in USL, we believe it would lead to better price discovery for USL, as we believe USL is presently trading at its historically low valuations and the stake sale would be at a premium. In the past also, companies have been known to pay huge premium to buy majority stakes in such companies, thereby leading to a significant increase in stock prices in a short period of time. Problems with KFA not to affect USLs fundamentals: Although USL and KFA have the same promoter, they are involved in different businesses that are not interconnected in any way. We believe USLs stocks have overreacted to all the negative news of KFA, although its business has continued to show strong growth overall. USL achieved the tag of the worlds largest spirit company in volumes at the end of FY2011, and it is expected to maintain this position in FY2012 also.
Exhibit 1: USL does not hold any stake in KFA directly or indirectly U B Holding Ltd.
100% 18.3% 11.5% 40.1% 32.8% 24.5%
United Breweries
Mangalore Chemicals
9.7%
12.8%
9.3%
3.2%
0.4%
0.01%
4.1%
Source: Company, Angel Research
7.9%
5.9%
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
USL holds stake in UBL, McDowell Holding and Mangalore Chemicals which are all promoted by UBH. None of these companies hold any stake in KFA. Thus, any problems relating to KFA should not affect USLs balance sheet or fundamentals directly or indirectly.
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
Scotch
Whiskey
Brandy
Wine
Mcdowell's VSOP
White Mischief
Black Dog
Vladivar
Dalmore
Romanov
Jura
Antiquity
Pinky
Royal Challenge
Signature
Source: Company, Angel Research
Despite its leading position in most categories and high brand recall, USL continued to spend 9-12% of its net sales on an average on advertisements over FY2006-11. Going ahead as well, we expect USL to continue to spend around 9-10% of its net sales on advertisements, which will aid the company in maintaining high brand recall.
10.5 9.9
11
10
9 226 FY06 294 FY07 478 FY08 Advertisment (LHS) 538 FY09 680 FY10 870 FY11
% of Net Sales
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
(500)
Price (`)
10x
16x
22x
28x
34x
April 2, 2012
Mar-12
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
United Spirits
Quick take
Concerns
USL lending money to KFA
Although the scenario of USL lending to KFA is highly unlikely and will face significant opposition from other shareholders, but if it finds a way to lend money to KFA, it will be a major risk as it could lead to significant erosion in USLs net worth if it fails to recover the loans given to KFA.
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
94.3 2,550.4
(40.8) (2.7)
(109.3)
(1.9) 18.4
770.0
45.2 34.3
86.4
38.9 34.8
1.7
42.5 42.5
22.2
51.9 51.9
22.0
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
9,632 10,907
9,632 10,907
April 2, 2012
United Spirits
Quick take
(474) (1,121)
1,101 (12,623)
April 2, 2012
10
United Spirits
Quick take
(15.6) (338.3) (15.6) (338.3) 98.0 2.7 0.3 1.2 2.4 17.2 1.3 24.2 2.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 12.0 1.3
April 2, 2012
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United Spirits
Quick take
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
April 2, 2012
12
United Spirits
6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai- 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800
Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Bhavesh Chauhan Sharan Lillaney V Srinivasan Yaresh Kothari Nitin Arora Ankita Somani Varun Varma Saurabh Taparia Shareen Batatawala Twinkle Gosar Tejashwini Kumari Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Hiten Sampat Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Akshay Shah VP - Institutional Sales Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales Dealer Dealer Sr. Executive mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com hiten.sampat@angelbroking.com meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com akshayr.shah@angelbroking.com Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com sacchitanand.uttekar@angelbroking.com VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) Analyst (Mid-cap) Analyst (Cement, Power, FMCG) Analyst (Automobile) Analyst (Infra, Cap Goods) Analyst (IT, Telecom) Analyst (Banking) Analyst (Cement, Power, Media) Research Associate Research Associate Research Associate sarabjit@angelbroking.com vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com nitin.arora@angelbroking.com ankita.somani@angelbroking.com varun.varma@angelbroking.com Sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com gosar.twinkle@angelbroking.com tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
Quick take
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