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Event Update
ICICI BANK
Value Accretive
The boards of ICICI Bank (ICICI) and Bank of Rajasthan (BoR) have approved the merger of the two banks in the 25:118 ratio (25 shares of ICICI for 118 BoR shares). Overall, the merger will lead to equity dilution of ~ 3.1% for ICICI. We believe the merger will be value accretive for ICICI as it will augment the banks geographical presence by 23%. Since the announcement, the bank has underperformed the bankex by 3%, highlighting sceptism on quality of book, price, etc. We believe concerns are overdone as the extent of dilution is limited compared to long term benefits of branch acquisition. Reiterate BUY.
EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Absolute Rating Rating Relative to Sector Risk Rating Relative to Sector Sector Relative to Market BUY Outperformer Low Overweight
Note: Please refer last page of the report for rating explanation
MARKET DATA CMP 52-week range (INR) Share in issue (mn) M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : : : : INR 832 1,010 / 606 1,114.9 927 /19,778 7,473.0
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (000) : SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters* MFs, FIs & Banks : : : : :
FIIs Others * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock 1 month 3 months 12 months (12.3) 0.1 25.8
Financials Year to March Net revenues (INR mn) Net rev growth (%) Net profit (INR mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Diluted EPS (INR) EPS growth (%) Diluted P/E (x) Price to book (x) ROAE (%) FY09 159,703 (0.9) 37,581 1,113 33.8 (9.6) 24.6 1.9 7.8 FY10 155,924 (2.4) 40,253 1,115 36.1 6.9 23.0 1.8 8.0 FY11E 168,229 7.9 51,043 1,115 45.8 26.8 18.2 1.7 9.6 FY12E 197,926 17.7 66,130 1,115 59.3 29.6 14.0 1.6 11.5
Nilesh Parikh +91 22 4063 5470 nilesh.parikh@edelcap.com Kunal Shah +91 22 4040 7579 kunal.shah@edelcap.com Vivek Verma +91 22 4040 7576 vivek.verma@edelcap.com
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Brief contours of the deal
The swap ratio announced is 25 ICICI shares for 118 BoR shares (1: 4.72)higher than the market price related swap ratio of 1:9. This effectively translates into a ~90% premium to the market price (at the time of announcement of the deal). In terms of price to book, it works out to 4.8x trailing book (Q3FY10). Adjusting for NPLs, price to book works out to 5.3x. BoR carries high revaluation reserve of around INR 4 bn (~40% of net worth). Hence, accounting for the revaluation reserve, the price to book value works out to 3.1x trailing adj. book (a more reasonable number). The proposed swap ratio values BoR at INR 30.4 bn, translating into a per branch value of only INR 65.7 mn, given its 463 branches. In contrast, HDFC Bank had paid around INR 260 mn for every branch of Centurion Bank of Punjab when the deal was sealed in February 2008. BoRs implied price per share comes at INR 188.38 per share. ICICI will issue 34.1 million new shares, which will lead to 3.1% dilution.
Impact on financials:
The immediate impact of merger on ICICIs book value given the dilution is of 1.8% We believe ICICI will use the opportunity to align staff costs and NPLs provisioning cost at the time of merger, putting minimal pressure on earnings. Sensitivity on higher NPLs (5% ) leads to book value dilution of 2.2%
Table 1: Impact of merger on ICICIBC BVPS
ICICI Bank
FY10 ICICI No. of shares (mn) Price (INR) Networth calculation : FY10 networth (INR mn) FY10 NPA (INR mn) Adj. book value (INR mn) BVPS (INR) BVPS dilution (%) P/BV If NPA is 5 % Adj. NPA (INR mn) Adj. networth (INR mn) BVPS (INR) BVPS dilution (%) Adj. P/BV 42,302 492,910 429 (2.2) 1.9
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
BoR Advances (INR mn) No. of shares (mn) Price (INR) Networth calculation : Q3FY10 networth (INR mn) Q3FY10 NPA (Reported: 1.1%) (INR mn) Adj. book value (INR mn) BVPS (INR) P/BV If NPA is 5 % Adj. NPA (INR mn) Adj. networth (INR mn) Adj. P/BV 3,890 3,614 8.4 77,808 161 188 Ex. reval. res. 6,337 844 5,746 36 5.3
BoR
Inclu. reval. res. 10,358 844 9,767 61 3.1 3,890 7,635 4.0
BFSI
BOR 23,493
ICICI FY10 943,271 2,020,166 1,812,056 3,832,222 81,144 842,150 2,000 35,500 2.34 1.16 8.0 5.1 2.1 3 57 51 108 1,010 906 1,916 18
BOR % of ICICI 2.5 7.5 4.3 6.0 4.0 4.9 23.2 11.5
FY09/Q310 Market cap Deposit Advances Business NII CASA Branch (nos.) Employee (nos.) NIM (%) RoA (%) RoE (Excl. reval. res.) (%) GNPA (%) NNPA (%) Restructured loans (%) Deposit/Employee Advances/Employee Business/Employee Deposit/Branch Advances/Branch Business/Branch Employee /Branch (nos.) 151,872 77,808 229,679 3,238 41,630 463 4,075 2.33 0.72 19.8 2.8 1.1 7 37 19 56 328 168 496 9
Fed. Bank Karn. Bank SIB BoR* CUB* Dhan. Bank KVB LVB* DCB
(INR bn) 53 20 16 15 13 10 27 8 9
(USD mn) 1,146 444 359 321 289 221 599 169 191
Branches (nos.) 612 447 525 463 197 211 441 284 80
Employees (nos.) 6,776 4,677 3,968 3,990 1,606 1,325 2,908 1,873 1,279
P/BV (exc reval. res) 1.1 1.1 1.2 4.0 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.6
P/BV 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.4
BoR: Brief profile
ICICI Bank
BoR is one of the oldest private sector banks in the country, incorporated in 1943 with Mr. Keshav Bangur as the promoter.
During 1996-1998, Mr. Bangur, the banks promoter, invited Mr. Praveen K Tayal to join him as joint promoter. Currently, the Tayal family is the largest shareholder with ownership of 28.06%, while according to SEBI the total holding is around 55.01%.
BoR is a listed bank with its corporate office in Mumbai and registered office at Udaipur in Rajasthan.
As on March 31, 2009, BoR had 463 branches and 111 ATMs, total assets of INR 172.2 bn, deposits of INR 151.9 bn and advances of INR 78 bn. It posted a net profit of INR 1.2 bn in the year ended March 31, 2009, and a net loss of INR 100 mn in the nine months ended December 31, 2009, accounting for wage revision provision of INR 440 mn in P&L statement and deficit on account of pension liability of INR 520 mn, which the bank is yet to provide for.
SEBI on March 8, 2010, banned about 100 companies and people associated with the Tayal family from trading in securities until further notice, citing improper disclosure about their holdings in BoR. According to SEBI, the Tayal family owned 55.01% of the bank as of December 2009 against 28.06% reported to stock exchanges.
RBI imposed a INR 2.5 mn penalty on the bank in February 2010 for various violations which included irregularities in transactions and misrepresentation of documents, norms pertaining to anti-money laundering, Know Your Customer norms, and irregularities in the conduct of accounts of a corporate group.
As a result the central bank appointed a managing director and four non-executive directors on BoRs board; one board member represents the Tayal family. RBI also appointed auditors Deloitte, Haskins and Sells to conduct a special scrutiny of the books of accounts.
Tayals troubles
Nov 09: RBI appoints additional director on BoR board Feb 10: RBI imposes Rs 25 lakh penalty on BoR Mar 10: SEBI bars 100 entities related to Tayals Mar 10: RBI orders special audit of BoRs books May 10: Deloitte Haskins and Sells submits report
BFSI
Table 5: Branch network of BoR and ICICIBC
Bank of Rajasthan Metro Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttranchal West Bengal Chandigarh (UT) D.Ngr. Haveli (UT) Total 129 142 6 3 50 2 9 9 18 2 5 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 8 12 2 5 77 5 4 1 2 2 3 90 102 4 69 1 98 5 1 1 20 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 Urban 4 3 1 Semiurban Rural Total 7 4 1 1 20 1 10 14 2 1 1 3 1 22 32 2 12 294 8 13 1 8 2 3 463
Company Description
ICICI Bank
Incorporated in 1994, ICICI Bank is Indias second largest bank and the largest among private banks with total assets of about INR 3.6 tn as of March 2010. The bank has a network of over 2000 branches and over 3271 ATMs. The banks focus is on retail lending with retail financing representing 43% of total loans and advances while International and corporate are the new growth drivers. The bank holds near market leadership in almost all its businesses including mortgages, auto loans, commercial vehicle loans, life insurance, general insurance, and asset management. Its subsidiaries ICICI venture funds, Pru ICICI AMC, ICICI securities, ICICI prudential, and ICICI Lombard are amongst the leading companies in their respective fields.
Investment Theme
The bank was prudent in raising capital ahead of time, which has been a big support to capital adequacy ratios given the turmoil in global economic environment. FY10 will be a year of consolidation for the bank, which, in our view, will give the bank an opportunity to enhance its liability franchise and improve its asset quality.
Key Risks
Main risks for ICICI is NPA risk due to its low cumulative provisions. With ~50% of retail asset book, it is vulnerable to system-wide deterioration in the quality of retail assets. Moreover, share of non-collateralized assets in retail assets bring in more risk to the banks balance sheet. Sharp increase in interest rates can affect the margins, as its deposit mix has higher share of bulk deposits.
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Financial Statements
Income statement Year to March Interest income Interest expended Net interest income Non interest income - Fee & forex income - Misc. income - Investment profits Net revenue Operating expense - Employee exp - Other opex Preprovision profit Provisions Loan loss provisions Investment depreciation Other provisions Profit before tax Provision for tax Profit After Tax Reported PAT Diluted EPS (INR) Dividend per share (INR) Dividend payout (%)
(INR mn) FY08 307,883 234,842 73,041 88,108 57,811 12,175 18,121 161,149 81,542 20,789 60,753 79,607 29,046 27,010 623 1,413 50,561 8,984 41,577 41,577 37.3 11 33.1 FY09 310,925 227,259 83,666 76,037 56,518 6,655 12,864 159,703 70,451 19,717 50,734 89,252 38,083 37,500 977 (395) 51,170 13,588 37,581 37,581 33.8 11 36.6 FY10 257,069 175,926 81,144 74,780 57,970 5,000 11,810 155,924 58,598 19,258 39,340 97,325 43,869 43,869 53,457 13,203 40,253 40,253 36.1 12 38.9 FY11E 277,547 185,893 91,654 76,575 68,405 5,970 2,200 168,229 65,661 21,396 44,265 102,568 31,970 31,970 70,597 19,555 51,043 51,043 45.8 13 33.2 FY12E 322,873 214,586 108,287 89,639 80,717 6,921 2,000 197,926 75,793 24,922 50,871 122,133 29,384 29,384 92,748 26,618 66,130 66,130 59.3 14 27.6
Growth ratios (%) Year to March NII growth Fees growth Opex growth PPOP growth PPP growth Provisions growth Net profit Operating ratios Year to March Yield on advances Yield on investments Yield on assets Net interest margins Cost of funds Cost of deposits Cost of borrowings Spread Cost-income Tax rate FY08 10.7 8.1 8.8 2.1 7.0 7.2 8.1 1.8 50.6 17.8 FY09 10.1 7.8 8.6 2.3 6.7 6.8 7.7 1.9 44.1 26.6 FY10 8.7 6.6 7.4 2.3 5.5 5.5 6.1 1.9 37.6 24.7 FY11E 8.8 6.7 7.7 2.5 5.6 5.1 5.8 2.1 39.0 27.7 FY12E 9.1 7.0 7.9 2.6 5.7 5.2 5.7 2.2 38.3 28.7 FY08 10.1 13.6 21.9 6.1 35.5 30.5 33.7 FY09 14.5 (2.2) (13.6) 24.2 12.1 38.8 (9.6) FY10 (3.0) 2.6 (16.8) 11.9 9.0 17.0 7.1 FY11E 13.0 18.0 12.1 17.4 5.4 (27.1) 26.8 FY12E 18.1 18.0 15.4 19.7 19.1 (8.1) 29.6
Balance sheet As on 31st March Equity capital Reserves & surplus Net worth Sub bonds/pref cap Deposits Borrowings Other liabilities Total liabilities Loans Gilts Others Cash and equivalents Fixed assets Other Assets Total assets Credit growth Deposit growth EA growth SLR ratio C-D ratio Low-cost deposits Gross NPA ratio Net NPA ratio Provision coverage Incremental slippage Net NPA / Equity Capital adequacy - Tier 1 Book value per share (INR) RoE decomposition (%) Year to March Net interest income/assets Fees/Assets Investment profits/Assets Net revenues/assets Operating expense/assets Provisions/assets Taxes/assets Total costs/assets ROA Equity/assets ROAE % FY08 2.1 2.0 0.5 4.6 (2.3) (0.8) (0.3) (3.4) 1.2 10.1 11.7 FY09 2.3 1.7 0.4 4.4 (1.9) (1.0) (0.4) (3.4) 1.0 13.2 7.8 FY10E 2.3 1.8 0.3 4.5 (1.7) (1.3) (0.4) (3.3) 1.2 14.6 8.0 FY11E 2.5 2.1 0.1 4.7 (1.8) (0.9) (0.5) (3.2) 1.4 14.8 9.6 FY08 11,133 453,571 464,704 211,002 2,444,311 656,484 221,452 3,997,952 2,256,161 755,180 359,265 380,411 41,089 205,846 3,997,952 14.7 6.0 15.7 24.4 93.1 26.1 3.3 1.5 52.0 1.9 7.5 14.0 11.8 417.4 FY09 11,127 484,189 495,315 258,318 2,183,478 673,237 182,660 3,793,008 2,183,108 634,822 395,759 299,666 38,016 241,636 3,793,008 (2.9) (10.7) (6.3) 22.2 101.2 28.7 4.3 2.1 52.8 2.2 9.2 15.5 11.8 445.2 FY10E 11,149 505,035 516,184 311,337 2,020,170 631,300 155,010 3,634,000 1,812,056 690,974 517,954 388,737 32,130 192,149 3,634,000 (11.7) (7.5) (2.9) 26.1 103.0 41.7 5.1 2.1 59.4 1.6 7.5 19.6 14.4 463.0 FY11E 11,149 539,121 550,269 313,337 2,325,875 670,758 194,593 4,054,832 2,076,985 849,184 516,720 363,166 25,883 222,893 4,054,832 11.1 15.1 11.6 27.0 98.8 43.7 4.4 1.3 70.1 1.4 5.0 18.9 13.8 493.6
ICICI Bank
(INR mn) FY12E 11,149 586,990 598,139 318,337 2,782,519 742,356 231,565 4,672,915 2,446,612 956,561 572,505 413,296 18,698 265,243 4,672,915 17.5 19.6 15.3 26.0 96.4 42.2 3.8 1.0 73.2 1.2 4.3 17.9 13.0 536.5
FY12E 2.6 2.1 4.8 (1.8) (0.7) (0.6) (3.2) 1.6 14.0 11.5
BFSI
Valuation parameters Year to March Diluted EPS (INR) Y-o-Y growth (%) Book value per share (INR) Adjusted book value per share (INR) Diluted PE (x) Price/BV (x) Price/ Adj. BV (x) Dividend yield (%) Price to income (x) FY08 37.3 8.0 417.4 395.5 22.1 2.0 2.1 1.1 7.0 FY09 33.8 (9.6) 445.2 416.5 24.4 1.9 2 1.1 8.1 FY10E 36.1 6.9 463.0 438.8 22.8 1.8 1.9 1.2 9.0 FY11E 45.8 26.8 493.6 476.1 18.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 7.7 FY12E 59.3 29.6 536.5 520.5 13.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 6.6
10
ICICI Bank
Company Allahabad Bank Bank of Baroda HDFC ICICI Bank Infrastructure Development Finance Co Ltd Karnataka Bank LIC Housing Finance Oriental Bank Of Commerce Punjab National Bank Rural Electrification Corporation South Indian Bank Syndicate Bank Yes Bank
Absolute reco BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
Relative reco SO SO SU SO SU SO SO SO SO SO SO SP SO
Relative risk H L L L M L M H L L H H M
Company Axis Bank Federal Bank HDFC Bank Indian Overseas Bank ING Vysya Kotak Mahindra Bank Manappuram General Finance Power Finance Corp Reliance Capital Shriram City Union Finance State Bank of India Union Bank Of India
Absolute reco BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY
Relative reco SO SO SP SU SO SP SO SP SP SP SP SO
Relative Risk M M L H H L M L M H L L
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Buy Hold Reduce Expected absolute returns over 12 months More than 15% Between 15% and - 5% Less than -5%
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Overweight (OW) Equalweight (EW) Criteria Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return
Edelweiss Securities Limited 11
BFSI
Edelweiss Securities Limited, 14th Floor, Express Towers, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021. Board: (91-22) 2286 4400, Email: research@edelcap.com
Vikas Khemani Nischal Maheshwari Head Head Institutional Equities Research vikas.khemani@edelcap.com nischal.maheshwari@edelcap.com +91 22 2286 4206 +91 22 6623 3411
EW Indices
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800
May-09 Feb-10 Jul-09 May-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Jun-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Nov-09 Apr-10
(INR)
21-May-09
21-Nov-09
21-May-10
Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Buy Rating Distribution* * 3 stocks under review > 50bn Market Cap (INR) 103 101 Hold 56 Reduce 9 Total 169 < 10bn 13
Recent Research Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos 267 Buy
20-May-10
Rural Robust disbursement; Electrification margins to sustain; Corporation Result Update Karnataka Bank Life Insurance Stepping up the pace of growth; Result Update March premium growth strong; Monthly Update
19-May-10 18-May-10
149
Buy