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16th INTERNATIONAL SHIP AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES CONGRESS 20-25 AUGUST 2006 SOUTHAMPTON, UK VOLUME 1
COMMITTEE I.1
ENVIRONMENT
COMMITTEE MANDATE Concern for descriptions of the ocean environment, especially with respect to wave, current and wind, in deep and shallow waters, and ice, as a basis for the determination of environmental loads for structural design. Attention shall be given to statistical description of these and other related phenomena relevant to the safe design and operation of ships and offshore structures.
COMMITTEE MEMBERS Chairman: B. Hutchison E. M. Appolonov C. Guedes Soares G. Kleiven M. Prevosto T. Rahman L. Rebaudengo Land C. Shaw D. Smith H. Tomita
KEYWORDS Environment, ocean, wind, wave, current, sea level, hindcast, ice cover, ice charts, climate change, data source, remote sensing, deep water, shallow water, wave spectra, stationarity, numerical modelling, probabilistic modelling, freak or rogue waves, met-ocean climate, extreme values, design condition, operational condition, uncertainty.
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment CONTENTS 1. 2.
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 5 SOURCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA .............................................................. 6 2.1 Wind ................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.1 Locally Sensed Wind Measurements............................................... 7 2.1.2 Remotely Sensed Wind Measurements............................................ 8 2.1.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Data ............................................................................... 11 2.2 Waves............................................................................................................. 12 2.2.1 Locally Sensed Wave Measurements ............................................ 14 2.2.2 Remotely Sensed Wave Measurements ......................................... 15 2.2.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Wave Data...................................................................................... 16 2.3 Current............................................................................................................ 17 2.3.1 Locally Sensed Current Measurements.......................................... 17 2.3.2 Remotely Sensed Current (via Satellite) ........................................ 18 2.3.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Current Data ....... 19 2.4 Ice ................................................................................................................... 20 2.4.1 Locally Sensed Ice Measurements................................................. 20 2.4.2 Remotely Sensed Ice Measurements.............................................. 21 2.4.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Ice Data............ 22 2.4.4 Uncertainties in Ice Data................................................................ 24 MODELLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENA........................................ 25 3.1 Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Descriptions of Wind ................... 25 3.2 Waves............................................................................................................. 26 3.2.1 Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Description of Waves......................................................................................... 26 3.2.2 Statistical Description of Waves .................................................... 29 3.2.3 Shallow Water Waves.................................................................... 32 3.3 Current............................................................................................................ 35 3.3.1 Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Description of Current.................................................................... 36 3.3.2 Statistical Description of Current................................................... 36 SPECIAL TOPICS...................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Rogue Waves ................................................................................................. 37 4.1.1 Definition of Rogue Waves............................................................ 37 4.1.2 Measurements of Rogue Waves..................................................... 38 4.1.3 Modelling of Rogue Waves ........................................................... 38 4.1.4 Statistical Issues of Rogue Waves.................................................. 40 4.1.5 Consequences for Design and Prediction ...................................... 40 4.2 Marine Growth ............................................................................................... 41 4.3 Climate Change and/or Variability ................................................................ 41 4.3.1 Ice ................................................................................................... 43
3.
4.
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment 4.3.2 Sea Level ........................................................................................ 47 4.3.3 Storm Frequency/Severity.............................................................. 49 Tsunamis ........................................................................................................ 50
4.4 5.
DESIGN AND OPERATING ENVIRONMENT ..................................................... 51 5.1 Design............................................................................................................. 51 5.2 Metocean Data and the Design Environment ................................................ 52 5.2.1 Load Factors Estimation ................................................................ 53 5.2.2 Combined metocean parameters .................................................... 54 5.2.3 Design for Freak or Rogue Waves................................................. 55 5.2.4 Designing for Green Water and Wave Impact............................... 56 5.3 Operations ...................................................................................................... 56 5.3.1 Real-Time Forecast ........................................................................ 58 5.3.2 Planning.......................................................................................... 59 5.3.3 Parametric Roll............................................................................... 60 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................... 63 6.1 Advances ........................................................................................................ 63 6.2 Recommendations .......................................................................................... 64
6.
REFERENCES.......67
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment
1.
INTRODUCTION
This report is the continuation of the work of the previous Technical Committees in charge of Environment, however with a revised mandate that accords ice an equal status with traditional interests such as wind, wave and current, and which recognizes the importance of environmental data to the planning of operations and prediction of operability. The Committee met three times: in Lisbon and Brest (2004), and in London (2005). The organization of this report is an evolution of the outline used by the preceding Committee in their report to the 15th ISSC. The changes reflect trends in the technical literature during the past three years, the revised mandate, and the interests of the Committee membership. Section 2 focuses on sources of environmental data for wind, waves, current and ice. Section 3 focuses on modelling of environmental data and Section 4 discusses some selected special topics. Section 5 addresses some selected aspects regarding the application of environmental data to design and operations. Section 6 summarizes some of the most significant aspects of the report. Two special topics addressed in Section 4 merit particular attention. These are rogue waves and climate change. Rogue waves have been a topic of increasing interest over the past fifteen years and the most recent three year period has seen some intense activity and an attempt to summarize what has been accomplished. Climate change has been a topic of increasing interest and concern over the past fifteen years. While in some quarters certain aspects of climate change remain controversial, the past three years have seen significant scientific advances that address earlier criticisms, fill in the data gaps, and make more solid the consensus for the fact of global warming and climate change, if not the causes. Nowhere is the evidence for rapid climate change more evident and dramatic than in the Arctic, and the most recent three year period has seen the publication of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004, 2005), a 1200 plus page independent, referenced and reviewed report developed by an international collaboration of over three hundred scientists and others expert in the Arctic region. Potentially of great interest to the marine community, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) predicts decreasing extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice throughout the twenty-first century. This projected trend will result in the emergence of significant opportunity for seasonal shipping on the Northern Sea Route, and improved access to many offshore resources in the Arctic region. There is increasing evidence for climate change impacts elsewhere in the marine environment that are of interest to ISSC and the marine design/operating communities. These include evidence for increased tropical storm intensity, slowing of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, rising global sea levels, and spatially nonhomogeneous trends affecting environmental processes relevant to design, such as wind, sea and
current. The mounting evidence for climate change also suggests that it may be appropriate on a case-by-case basis to review and question the underlying presumption of stationary climate typically applied to the extrapolation of design extremes. Depending on the planned service life of some projects, the trends in some variables may become important and perhaps should not be ignored as is often the current practice. On a general note it is worth mentioning the publication in late 2005 of the standard ISO19901-1 that provides metocean guidance for the engineer involved with the design and operation of offshore facilities. Extreme values suitable for concept selection are provided for a number of geographical regions, and new regions will be added in the future. The reader should also be aware of the SIMORC project (see www.simorc.com) which is expected to provide significant benefit to both the offshore metocean industry community and researchers by making the large number of industry measured datasets more visible and more available for research purposes. By the time of the next ISSC report, this system will be operational.
2. 2.1
SOURCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA Wind
There has been a significant amount of research aimed at deriving wind information from remote sensors, particularly earth-orbiting satellites. It is feasible to derive reliable wind speed and direction information from synthetic aperture radars on satellites such as ENVISAT (Horstman et al, 2004) and from the SeaWinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT (Cardone et al, 2004). Progressive implementation of numerical techniques to microwave temperature data has enabled these data to be used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and hence enable forecasters to derive much better insight into the wind fields even in the middle of storms where there is a large amount of water present (Amerault & Zou, 2003). Also worth noting is that incremental improvement in the technology of GPS dropwindsonde as used by NASA in aircraft reconnaissance of hurricanes, has enabled significant improvements in available information, especially in the eye-wall area (Uhlhorn & Black, 2003). The offshore industry continues to support the development of basin-wide wind (and wave) hindcast studies; new areas include the Caspian Sea. Regions such as the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and the west coast of Australia have been re-examined using new models. Also noticeable is the length of these databases, which commonly consist of 40 or 50 years of continuous data, thereby enabling better estimates to be made of the extreme values needed for design as well as more reliable statistics to be derived for operational studies. Although most of these databases are proprietary, access for some research purposes may be granted.
Still an area of interest for the offshore industry is the profile structure of the wind, its horizontal coherence and its frequency spectra, especially in tropical regions where wind can be the governing consideration in the design of floating systems. A comprehensive measuring programme (the WAG project) is planned for offshore Angola starting in late 2006. As mentioned in the introduction, the international standard ISO 19901-1 was published in 2005; this contains summary metocean information (including wind extremes) for various regions of the world. 2.1.1 Locally Sensed Wind Measurements
Probably the most important development in local wind sensors over the past few years is the sonic anemometer, which is now a cost effective alternative to the cup and vane anemometer (Wastrack & Pittman, 2001; Lewis & Dover, 2004). Mechanical wind sensors have moving parts and mating surfaces that wear with use. Sensor performance degrades with wear, and as a result of contamination by natural sources such as salt, air, dust and sand. To ensure accuracy, they require periodic maintenance and refurbishment. Mechanical wind sensors have a threshold wind speed below which they fail to respond. The wind must provide enough force to overcome friction and accelerate the mass of the sensors moving parts. Acceleration and deceleration of these parts are not instantaneous, which results in a delayed response and under reporting of wind speeds and gusts when conditions are variable. The sonic anemometer has no moving parts to wear out or become contaminated, which eliminates the cost of periodic maintenance; and it doesnt suffer from any of the inertial effects that plague mechanical wind sensors. The sonic anemometer is inherently stable primarily because the distance between its transducers determines its accuracy. Most sonic anemometer designs include microprocessors that can determine the quality of the data collected. The small size and fixed orientation of the transducers allow them to be heated at minimum power to prevent icing in cold climates. Wind measurement using Doppler profilers continues to be developed both the hardware and increasingly sophisticated software. Schafer et al (2004) report an improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio of 915MHz radar data by the use of coplanar spectral averaging, a technique that can also be applied to the longer-range 50MHz radars. Incidentally, the Christmas Island dataset referred to in this paper appears to be a useful long-term source for research into equatorial wind profiles. The characteristics of horizontal and vertical coherence during tropical squalls is the subject of a Joint Industry Project called WAG (West Africa Gusts), for which a scope of work has been completed and the field trials set to start in 2006. The WAG project will include the instrumentation of an oil production platform offshore Angola for measuring the variability of wind both horizontally and vertically during the squall season.
One of the most widely used sites for placement of local wind measurements is offshore platforms. Although instruments are often located relatively high above the sea surface, there are sometimes questions about how representative they are and whether the platform itself reduces the accuracy of the data. It is encouraging to see that a comparative study (Cardone et al, 2004) using offshore data sets from several platforms in the North and Norwegian Seas was able to demonstrate relatively good agreement with QuikSCAT measurements. This study shows that the industry would benefit from the application of a consistent wind profile in order to reduce the winds to the 10m level. This would help to provide more horizontally consistent data, as these values are frequently used as input to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For in situ measurements, the increase in the number of moored and drifting buoys reporting wind, often at hourly intervals, will improve the characterization of the temporal and spatial variability of the wind field, especially in the coastal margins of the oceans. It can be misleading to look at the results of high-resolution models of wind fields, which do not include observations consistent with the model resolution. A further recent development is the establishment of a program for a high-quality subset of the Voluntary Observing Ship program, called VOSClim (North, 2005), whereby selected ships will provide wind data at intervals of up to one hour. 2.1.2 Remotely Sensed Wind Measurements
The measurement of sea surface wind (speed and direction) from remotely sensed instruments covers a large range of spatial resolution, from low resolution (several 10km) and medium resolution (between 1km and 10km) to high resolution (several meters to 1km)5 2.1.2.1 Low resolution wind measurements The active scatterometers, the passive radiometers and the GPS based sensors give access to wind vector fields at low resolution but with increasingly extensive coverage. Scatterometers. The Seawinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT (launched June 1999) has a very large swath (1800km, resolution 25km).and is now operationally assimilated in the hindcast and forecast meteorological models by Mto France, ECMWF, UK Met Office and the US forecasting services. The Quickscat database of marine surface winds has now achieved a five year continuous record, thereby furnishing a very good basis for the identification of the systematic component of errors that continue to characterize the marine wind fields simulation models (Cardone et al, 2004). This represents considerable progress over ERS-1/2 (swath 500km, resolution 50km). Its wider swath enables two observations per day of a tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, compared with Cband (near 5GHz) scatterometers such as ERS, which are little affected by rain, the QuikSCAT Ku-band frequency (near 14 GHz) is very sensitive to rain (Draper & Long, 2004; Tournadre & Quilfen, 2003), limiting the retrieved wind vector accuracy, for example, in tropical cyclones situations.
A high quality 12.5km wind vector product from QuikSCAT was developed and validated, and is currently being put into operational production at NOAA. Much better resolution (2.5km) wind speed retrievals from QuikSCAT were shown to be possible (Chang et al, 2004). The loss in October 2003 of ADEOS-2 (Seawinds scatterometer) developed by the Japanese space agency and launched at the end of 2002, and the degradation of ERS-2 have reduced the current availability of scatterometer wind field products. However, the joint European/US polar satellite system missions EPS (EUMETSAT Polar System Europe) and NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite Systems US) will secure at least two global wide-swath wind field retrieval missions from 2008 towards 2020. In EUMETSAT, the MetOp-1, planned to be launched April 2006, will be Europes first polar-orbiting satellite dedicated to operational meteorology. It will be followed by two subsequent Metop satellites. In continuity with ERS-1/2, MetOp-1 will carry ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), which is a kind of dual swath ERS scatterometer. It is a Cband device and uses six antennas for the simultaneous coverage of the two swaths. Each swath will be 500km wide (res. 25-50km), will be centred at an inclination of 36 to the left or right of the satellite ground track and will start at an offset from the ground track of around 300km. ASCAT will be used primarily for global measurement of sea surface wind vectors and will be able to provide quasi-global coverage within 24 hours. Radiometers. A different choice has been made by the US in NPOESS, with passive radiometer systems, despite a physical measurement principle less adapted to the restitution of the wind direction. Launched on 6 January 2003, WindSAT is a first of its kind sensor to demonstrate and better understand the wind vector retrieval capabilities of a polarimetric radiometer versus those from scatterometers such as QuikSCAT. GPS. The use of sea-reflected GPS measurements collected using aircraft, is another source of low resolution wind field. Several feasibility studies have been done during this last decade (Komjathy et al, 2004), but this technique has been limited to research studies and has not yet found operational applications. 2.1.2.2 Medium resolution wind measurements Altimeters. Some improvements have been made to the processing of altimeter measurements for wind speed retrieval. The drawback to an altimeter is its weak spatial coverage. Meanwhile, compared with the low resolution sensors, the medium resolution (several km) of the altimeters reduces the smoothing of the gradients and consequently, the under-estimation of the wind speeds. An interesting feature of dual-frequency altimeters, which has been recently highlighted Topex/Poseidon (since August 1992), Jason-1 (since December 2001) and ENVISAT-1 Radar altimeter RA-2 (since March 2002) is that the difference between C and Ku-band corresponds roughly to the effect of rain or other surface phenomena (foam layers and whitecap coverage). This difference could be used, for example, for estimating rainfall (Quilfen et al, 2005).
10 2.1.2.3 High resolution Wind Measurements
SAR. For more than ten years, SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) has been carried aboard satellites, with increasing swath width: JERS-1 (swath 75km), ERS-1, ERS-2(since 1995) (100km, res. 26m), Envisat-1 (since March 2002), ASAR (Advanced SAR), Wide Swath mode 405 km, res. 150m), Radarsat-1 (since Nov. 1995, swath 35 to 500 km with resolutions from 10 metres to 100). Scheduled for launch in 2006, Radarsat-2 will carry a High Resolution Multi Polarization SAR with a range of resolutions from 100 to three meters. Although SAR was primarily thought of as a wave spectra measuring sensor, the interest in SAR for wind measurement has been increasing. The most sophisticated wind retrieval technique is the so-called scatterometry approach. Wind speed retrievals using such an approach achieve root-mean-square errors smaller than 2 m/s in wind speeds ranging from 2 to 20 m/s, down to a resolution of a few kilometres. Using wind direction measurements from another scatterometer permits increasing accuracy. Corresponding wind directions have been retrieved from SAR to an RMS accuracy of 25 at a spatial resolution of 25km. Quasi-operational delivery of SAR wind speeds has been demonstrated with delivery times on the order of 3 hours from time of data acquisition at the satellite. Other techniques are being studied to complement and improve the scatterometry approach. The kinetic approach uses azimuth smearing caused by ocean surface motion and the Doppler centroid and cross spectrum analysis to infer surface movement during SAR integration time and hence speed and direction. For more details see Horstmann et al (2004), Monaldo et al (2004) and the papers from the coastal and marine applications of the 2003 SAR Symposium in Svalbard, Norway. 2.1.2.4 Wind gust squall and coherence Thunderstorms are a regular feature of Equatorial West Africa, and their high frequency may severely disrupt weather-sensitive operations. Squalls are sudden increases in wind speed that last for several minutes and are associated with the leading edge of a thunderstorm or front. The WMO definition of a squall is a sudden increase in wind speed of at least 16 knots to greater than 22 knots that lasts at least one minute. Squalls are usually accompanied by changes in wind direction, reductions in air temperature, and increases in humidity. Squalls are one exception to the relatively benign meteorological environment offshore West Africa and dominate some aspects of the design and operation of offshore facilities. Due to their nature, high quality data, even at a single point, are difficult to obtain. As the first phase of the West Africa Gust (WAG) JIP, high frequency wind data have been analysed for 10 locations offshore West Africa. These are grouped into three main regions: Mauritania, Nigeria and Angola. Most of the data sets include wind speed and direction measurements at one-second intervals and the average measurement duration is
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about one year. It was clear that there would be considerable benefit to a combined analysis of these data sets. Determining the characteristics of horizontal and vertical coherence during tropical squalls is the subject of the second phase of WAG. An outline scope of work has been completed, and field trials are due to start in 2006. The WAG project will include the instrumentation of an oil production platform offshore Congo for measuring the variability of wind both horizontally and vertically during the squall season (refer to Figure 1). While the actual locations may still change, the wind sensors will be grouped into three distinct arrays: An upper vertical array on the telecom mast A lower vertical array on a mast to be installed somewhere along the bridge A horizontal array of individual sensors just above the bridge
Figure 1: Proposed WAG instrumentation for horizontal and vertical coherence It noticeable how much effort there has been in successfully extracting value for one application area (e.g., wind modelling) for use in another area (e.g., remote sensing of winds). Clearly there has been a substantial amount of data and knowledge exchanged between researchers working in the various fields a general trend that can only be encouraged. 2.1.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Data
The use of field data in verifying or calibrating numerical models was described in some detail in the 2003 ISSC, I.1 report. An interesting, somewhat converse development in the interim is in the use of QuickSCAT (QS) wind data in real-time in driving numerical wave models (Cardone et al, 2004). The QS real-time data stream is being assimilated into real time NWP products at major centres (e.g., NCEP, ECMWF). Many studies
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have been published that demonstrate the incremental value of QS data to research on regional wind phenomena and air-sea interaction.
Figure 2: Correlation plots comparing hindcasts and measured wave heights In Cardone et al. (2004), a pilot study is reported in which the impact of QS enhanced wind fields on wave hindcasting skill is described. The authors produced wind fields using their Interactive Kinematic Objective Analysis (IOKA) method over the entire South Atlantic Basin at 6-hour intervals for one year. The main tasks of the analyst were to identify and remove areas where the QS algorithm selected the wrong aliases (a rare event), to interpolate the QS data-rich information into the small inter-swath areas within a given map, and to apply kinematic continuity principles to move information from the QS data rich synoptic time to the intermediate synoptic times (i.e., the 0000UTC and 1200 UTC analyses). Figure 2 compares the hindcast made with these NRA/QS enhanced wind fields with hindcasts made with pure NRA winds for the mid-latitude South Atlantic. The figure shows there is a reduction in bias overall but especially so at the higher non-exceedance probabilities of 80% to 99.9%. This characteristic of the pure NRA hindcast would greatly degrade the accuracy of derivative wave extremes for design, and the significant positive impact of the QuickSCAT data on extremes and design values was clear for all latitudes. 2.2 Waves
Before the nineties, data collection was mostly limited to shipping routes (thanks to the Voluntary Observing Fleet) and to a few ad hoc campaigns of limited duration and geographic applicability. These sources are still active and improving, and their contribution should not be neglected. Long-term climate descriptions matching the reliability needs of the offshore industry (yearly failure probabilities below 10-2 to 10-4) or of the development of ships with novel sailing strategies (high speed craft, fast container carriers, transoceanic tows) were not readily available. The development of computers and the launch of earth-observation satellites have boosted the volume of available data. Hindcast studies have been carried out for long
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periods, 40 years or more, and at ocean-basin-wide scales. In addition, a significant amount of wave height data has been provided as a by-product by altimetric satellites designed to accurately monitor the sea level; additional wave parameters could also be extracted from SAR measurements. At first sight, the volume of available data is such that it should be possible to obtain design conditions almost anywhere in the world, to the reliability levels required for structures with expected life spans of a few decades. However, when one attempts such a practical exercise, one is faced with some still unresolved issues. Most hindcast studies are proprietary. The data are thus costly, and few intercomparison or independent calibration studies have ever been conducted. Hindcast programs are still lacking calibration for uncommon events for instance in conditions related to phenomena occurring once per decade. It is thus questionable whether hindcasts can actually supplement the scarce but validated rare event data from other sources. Satellite data calibration needs constant updating, and most studies aim at the use of the significant wave height estimate for the correction of other measurements, not for the construction of climatologies. So, despite the possibility of retrieving from the World Wide Web altimetric measurements of significant wave height, the validation and calibration for reliable long-term distributions are often ill-defined for practical engineering applications. As a matter of fact, given the variety of papers published on sensor calibration, it is not even clear that consensus on such methods can be found among the scientific community. Comparisons bear mostly on almost co-located individual data and/or on monthly means. The consequences on design values are ill-defined. However, design values are governed by the upper tail of the distribution, and the effect of the above biases on the characteristics of that upper tail is very difficult to assess.
Two directions of action may be suggested to improve the ability of multisource climatologies to provide design values: global construction of integrated long-term distributions from the statistics of each source, and individual sample re-estimation from multiple sources of information followed by statistics of those re-estimated values. The conditions for constructing climatologies suitable for the extrapolation to extremes could be met with existing hindcast and satellite data, but would still be dependent on field data (usually buoy measurements) as a calibration reference. The results may thus exhibit the deceiving advantage of consistency, but with only an unknown degree of accuracy because of the restriction of reliable field data measurements to very few areas of the world, and because of the difficulties in extending those results to other locations where such field data are not available.
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Re-estimation of historical values is not frequently studied by itself. The most common analogue is the search for models of the underlying process in the time-history of sea states, in order either to replace missing values or to determine operating conditions by simulating realistic histories. As for the hindcast calibration, these methods lack validation in extreme conditions. 2.2.1 Locally Sensed Wave Measurements
The directional waverider buoy has been the main sensor to acquire wave data at different locations. It performs well in most circumstances and its behaviour is well known by now. Shih et al (2005) have conducted an intercomparison study among a Datawell waverider buoy, a Triaxys buoy, a linear array of sensors and an ADCP. The Datawell Waverider uses heave-pitch-roll sensors (for surface slope), two horizontal hull-fixed accelerometers (for heave), and compass to determine directional wave information. The Triaxys buoy uses three accelerometers to measure total accelerations along three mutually orthogonal x, y, and z axes of the buoy. It uses three angular rate sensors to measure rotation rates about the roll, pitch and yaw axes. A gimballed compass is used to measure sensor heading. Algorithms for a 6-degrees-of-freedom nonlinear equation of motion and a Maximum Entropy Method are used to estimate frequency and frequency-direction spectra, and statistical wave parameters. Comparisons between Triaxys and linear array, Triaxys and Waverider, and ADCP and Triaxys are best in wave height (Hmo), with correlation coefficient between 0.95 and 0.99. Wave periods compared satisfactorily and wave direction comparisons are marginal. A concept that is not yet very popular but may be seen more in the future is buoys based on GPS information. Nagai et al (2004) described the field tests of one such buoy that in addition to measuring waves can also detect sea level changes and be used as warning for tsunamis. Recently interest has been rising in the understanding of the behaviour of large waves, and for this purpose the wave measurement arrangements that exist in some offshore platforms provide good quality data. There has also been increasing interest in the use of the navigation radar in the X- or Sband for acquiring wave data. The X-band radar is turning out to be an interesting sensor to measure the wave fields in the neighbourhood of ports, as in the example of Guedes Soares et al (2003), although it has also been successfully used on board ships (Payer & Rathje, 2004). Comparisons of its performance with wave buoy data have been reported by Izquierdo et al (2004, 2005), where it was shown that in general the agreement is good. These comparisons also showed that there are aspects related to the specifics of equipment and location that need to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the radar data are obtained from a spatial averaging while the buoy data result from a time average at a fixed point in time, a difference that can be reflected in the way the two sensors deal with directional and period information.
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Applications of marine radars in ships have also been made by Hossoda et al (2005), who reported full scale tests using an S-band radar installed on board two ships. Another tendency that is worth reporting is the attempt to use the ship as a waverider buoy and to estimate the wave spectra from its motions. Somewhat different approaches have been adopted by Tannuri et al (2003), Iseki (2004), Nielsen (2005) and Pascoal et al (2005). Although the methods are not yet fully operational, it is fair to say that the problem is basically solved for stationary ships, but dealing with the ship speed still creates some difficulties. Another limitation is still the description of the high frequency tail of the spectra. It is not well resolved by large ships, which are insensitive to very small waves. However the method is being used to assess the waves that will be exciting those platforms and in this way one can also argue that the very small waves are relatively unimportant. With this objective in mind one can say that the methods are ready to be used, although the aim is not to produce accurate data for oceanographic studies. 2.2.2 Remotely Sensed Wave Measurements
Satellite remote sensing is one of the most important methods of obtaining the global features of ocean, wind, current, temperature and waves on a large scale. As to the wave measurements, data from reliable observation sites are scarce, and global data from space would be highly desirable. However, because of the complexity of the algorithms, it is not easy to measure the individual forms and motions of ocean waves. As an alternative way, air-borne radar observation is applicable for getting a profile of the ocean surface. It is noteworthy that the measurements of current or temperature vary slowly with respect to time and space, while wind or wave variability is comparatively quick spatially and temporally. Greater effort should be concentrated on refining these wave measurements in the near future. In a laboratory flume, Rheem et al (2004) investigated microwave backscattering in a random wave field with and without wave breaking. Wave breaking generates large forward induced surface currents and effects to the Doppler spectrum. One of the markers for tracing freak/rogue waves is the shift of space-borne SAR images. In order to observe in-situ data, air-borne and ship-borne measurements must be reported. Vandemark et al (2004) observed the classical problem of ocean wave slope by means of radar backscattering and the laser altimeter. From marine radar images Nieto-Borge et al (2004a) contributed to the inversion problem for wave spectra and Hirayama et al (2002) attempted to estimate directional spectra. Durden et al (2003) observed hurricanes with air-borne Doppler radar. More recently, Melville et al (2005) reported their results of air-borne lidar (ATM) observation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec off the Pacific coast of Mexico and found a few freak waves. They also analysed the statistical parameters, skewness and kurtosis of the ocean surface profile. As for space-borne remote sensing, Schulz-Stellenfleth et al (2004) developed the PARSA algorithm to have a 2D spectrum, and Lehner (2005) presented an inversion scheme to extract wave profiles from complex SAR images. Complex precise procedures are given in Schulz-Stellenfleth and Lehner (2004). Rosenthal et al (2003)
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made an analysis of SAR images to apply them to 2D sea surface elevation. Nieto-Borge et al (2004b) also made used SAR images of offshore wave elevation. Ardhuin et al (2004) executed an analysis similar to that of Schulz-Stellenfleth et al (2004). Monaldo (2005) analysed SAR images and observed crest length and wave groupiness characteristics in the ocean. On the measurement of wave spatial profile, Lehner (2005) reported from air-borne, space-borne SAR data that extreme waves were found in a crossing sea around weather fronts. As to the use of a satellite altimeter, Queffeulou (2003) performed the validation of wave height and wind speed data using buoy data. The validation of wave period data was examined by Gommenginger et al (2004) with the ECMWF numerical wave model and NDBC buoy records. In consideration of the devastating Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004, it is appropriate to mention here the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) system of buoys in the Pacific Ocean basin intended to provide early detection and identification of tsunami parameters and thereby contribute to early warning. Refer also to Section 4.4 Tsunamis. 2.2.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Wave Data
The assimilation of in situ or satellite data in sea state simulation is in progress. Since the summer of 2004, WaveWatch III at NOAA operationally has assimilated buoys and ERS2 HS data in the global model NWW3 (Chen et al, 2004). The use of a variational data assimilation technique (DRB scheme) gives better wave hindcasts, which in turn improves wave forecasts within the first 12 hours, moderately improves forecasts between 12 and 24 hours, and has little impact on wave forecasts after 24 hours. The wind forcing stays the most dominant factor throughout the forecast period. Operating WaveWatch III, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center studied and analysed the improvements obtained with assimilation, in their global model, of ENVISAT and JASON satellite measurements of significant wave height (Wittman & Cummings, 2004). The most notable development is the production and application of multi-decade simulations (deep and coastal waters) with wave models to study return values for the design, climate change and variability. Oceanweather has completed the ERA-40 hindcast of the North Atlantic and the GROW2000 global 50-year hindcast. These hindcasts have been used by Wang et al (2004a) to analyse climate change effects. Cox et al (2004) attempted to extend the wave hindcast to the first part of the 20th century, using the daily sea-level pressure data (DSLP) available from the NCAR. ECMWF has run a 40-year global wave hindcast (ERA-40, mid-1957 to mid-2002). For coastal applications EDF LNHE/CETMEF/Mto-France hindcast 25 years using wind fields from ERA-40 and NOAA/NCEP2 with the EDF-LNHE software TOMAWAC (Benoit & Lafon, 2004). They used two nested grids with a finite element mesh (mesh of variable sizes) of 1 to 20km for offshore Atlantic, English Channel and the North Sea, and a coastal grid of 2 to 3km along the French coasts. Shallow water effects were taken into account, but not tides nor, at the moment, currents.
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Other regional hindcasts appeared such as a hindcast on the Black Sea by a NATO TUWAVES project. In this case the models were WAM and METU3 forced by ECMWF Re-Analysis (Ozhan et al, 2004). Valchev et al (2004) also presented results from the Black Sea. With WaveWatch III and SWAN, a 12-year hindcast was done of North and Baltic Sea German coasts, for wind and wave climate analysis for offshore wind energy projects (Mittendorf et al, 2004). A 44-year hindcast of the Baltic Sea (Cieslikiewicz et al, 2004), was done with WAM and wind fields from the HIPOCAS project (EU project of 40-year European regional hindcasts; the results were presented during the 29th International Conference on Coastal Engineering (ICCE 2004)). Finally, but not exhaustively, the project OLAS Chile (waves in Chile) hindcast 40 years with WAVAD (2nd gen.) in deepwater. 2.3 Current
Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) have become the dominant choice for ocean current measurements on ships and offshore structures due to their convenient application, long profiling range and proven accuracy. For operations and navigation, HF radar systems and satellite measurements add the valuable horizontal dimension to site-specific measurements, enabling surface current vector maps to be produced. 2.3.1 Locally Sensed Current Measurements
The introduction of phased array technology into ACPs has led to increased depth range using a single compact transducer, while maintaining performance consistent with traditional multiple piston-type transducer arrays (Holliday et al, 2003). An acoustic Doppler profiler can measure from tens to hundreds of meters into the water column, depending on its operational frequency. Using a temporal-gating technique, the instrument can synthesize velocity measurements at multiple uniformly spaced intervals along its operating range. Due to the rapidly diverging acoustic beams, it is often challenging, if not impossible, to avoid interception of structural components, moorings and/or tubulars of vessels or platforms. Obstruction of one or more beams can lead to bias of the current velocity estimates (Oberg, 2002). In addition, the offshore structure itself can modify the local current flow. Horizontal beam systems overcome this limitation by projecting the acoustic beams away from the structure; however these systems only profile at one depth in the water column. Some consultants have developed optimisation software to precisely orient the conventional vertical profiler to minimise contamination of the acoustic beams (Hankin, 2004). For operations and navigation, HF radars, such as the direction finding CODAR system, can produce surface current vector maps on local and synoptic spatial scales (Emery et al, 2004). Intercomparison studies of HF radars show high agreement with acoustic Doppler profiler velocity estimates (Kohut et al, 2004). At least two spatially separate radar stations (e.g., tens of kilometres) are required to produce a 2-D vector map, which has limited widespread application on solitary platforms. Low-pass filtering of the radial measurements and time-series animations allow a single station to provide operational quality output (Barrick et al, 2005).
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Frequently, a cross-sectional profile or transect survey is required to properly characterise the threat of a local current to a critical or delicate deepwater operation, such as a heavy lift, topsides mating or offloading. For example, a long range acoustic Doppler profiler was recently integrated into a towfish, which, while not unique, was noteworthy in that it could be held in a container, including the electronics and a winch, requiring only 2 x 3 meters of deck space (Anderson & Matthews, 2005). This simplifies and expedites survey mobilisation and broadens the range of acceptable charter craft. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are gaining more commercial interest as survey platforms. Outfitted with a variety of instruments, including an acoustic Doppler profiler, they can typically out-manoeuvre towfish, survey at higher speeds, and reach full ocean depths (MacNaughton et al, 2005). 2.3.2 Remotely Sensed Current (via Satellite)
Satellite based instrumentation has provided a means of estimating currents for close to three decades (Fu & Holt, 1982). Over that period a range of different sensors has allowed either the direct or indirect estimation of current speed and direction. This has been achieved through the measurement of one or more sea surface parameters such as temperature or height. While the variation of current with depth cannot be measured directly by satellite based systems, under certain conditions (e.g., in the absence of seabed friction, coastal effects and mixed water layers) the surface current can give a reasonable indication of the bulk current flow. In 2002 the BNSC Service Mission Support programme undertook a programme which, in part, presented and evaluated the different methods available for estimating ocean currents from satellites (Ocean Currents from Space, 2002). A comprehensive review of the current and future capabilities of satellite based systems is presented in the project reports. Radar altimeters measure variations in sea surface height. These variations can be used to determine the pressure gradients that drive geostrophic currents. If the height of the geoid (i.e., the sea surface height in the absence of a current field) is known, absolute currents can be estimated. In the absence of accurate, local geoid information, variations in current, based on a long term mean of sea surface elevation, can be derived. Alternatively, sea surface height anomalies allow the location of strong current boundaries to be mapped, from which the movement of eddies or fronts can be derived (see Horizon Marine Website: http://horizonmarine.com). An advancement on basic radar altimetry is the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to provide a high resolution image of the sea surface (and potentially the direct measurement of currents). A SAR image is formed by combining a number of radar images taken along the flight path of the satellite, thus effectively increasing the aperture width of the radar and hence its resolution capability.
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Altimeters operating at optical frequencies (lidars) represent an alternative to radar altimeters; however, they have safety and operational limitations (cloud cover) that need to be considered. In addition to the active sensors outlined above, passive sensors are also used to indirectly estimate current velocity. In particular, radiometers record the time evolution of sea surface temperature. Progressive thermal images allow current features to be tracked (either manually or though automated approaches) and associated current velocities to be estimated. Good correlations with in-situ measurements have been reported (see Sat-Ocean Website: http://sat-ocean.com). The method works well where a relatively high variability in surface temperature exists. Clearly, cloud cover limits its applicability. By combining sea surface temperature data and altimetry data, spatial coverage can be improved and current features better resolved. A number of organisations provide sea surface current values and forecasts. Different techniques are adopted to derive the current magnitude and direction including the mapping of sequential surface temperature fields (Colorado Center for Astrodynamic Research Website: http://ccar.colorado.edu). Due account needs to be taken of differences in the spatial and temporal extent of satellite based measurement in comparison with in-situ measurements (Srokosz et al, 1993). 2.3.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Current Data
There have been a number of developments of operational current models since the previous ISSC report. The scientific community is conducting several major programs among them the European Integrated Project MERSEA and the US NOPP. Forecasting models for the open ocean are running in near-real time on a daily or weekly basis in several countries: Australia, Bluelink is global but uses a curvilinear grid with higher resolution near Australia. See http://www.marine.csiro.au/bluelink/ France, Mercator, is global with higher resolution in the North Atlantic. See http://www.mercator-ocean/ Italy, MFSTEP covers the http://www.bo.ingv.it/mfstep/WP8/ Norway, TOPAZ covers http://topaz.nersc.no the Mediterranean Sea. See
Japan is global but with a focus on the seas around Japan. Atlantic and Arctic basins. See See
UK, FOAM is global, with higher resolution in the North Atlantic. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/ncof/foam/index.html
USA, NLOM and NCOM are global; HYCOM covers the Tropical and North Atlantic. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/ATLhycom1-12/skill.html
20 2.4 Ice
To a considerable degree ice cover effects on ships and offshore engineered structures designed for operation in freezing and Arctic seas govern requirements for their strength and safety. To obtain statistically reliable estimations of sea ice parameters, methods that blend locally sensed, remotely sensed and numerically modelled data are used. It is worth noting that the industry is preparing a standard for the design of structures in cold regions. This will eventually be published as ISO 19906, and a draft international standard should be available for review by the time of the next edition of this document. 2.4.1 Locally Sensed Ice Measurements
Local measuring facilities are normally used for studying the physical properties of ice. Studies of the physical and mechanical properties of sea ice traditionally include determination of ice temperature, salinity and density, as well as strength limits and deformation moduli under bending and compression (Zubakin et al, 2004a; Zubakin et al, 2005). To study the properties, several ice cores / blocks are obtained using a Cherepanov tubular drill or a mechanical drill with a core sampler. The specimen temperatures are measured by precision electron thermometers and the salinity is measured by an oceanographic probe. To determine the strength limits and deformation moduli, a specialized hydraulic press with a pressure sensor has been utilized. For the last few years large scale testing of ice strength under compression and interaction with an indenter (restrained compression) has been included in the field studies listing. New initiatives at the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) have highlighted the need for improved information regarding the seasonal decay of sea ice (Gauthier et al, 2002). Considerable work has been done to categorize and characterize the decay process of Arctic first year ice and to develop ways of estimating its spring and summer strength. The investigation results have been implemented at CIS and are utilized by mariners. Expanding on these developments, Langlois et al (2003) elaborated the algorithm for generation of ice strength charts. Using field observations of ice strength and ancillary variables, this algorithm estimates the ice strength using modelled surface air temperatures. The ice strength chart displays the strength of undeformed first year ice relative to its mid-winter strength. In 2002, field research was conducted to validate the ice strength chart. A comparison with the field data showed that it gave good estimates of the ice strength. For obtaining information on the internal structure of ice ridges and stamukhas under the field conditions, thermal drilling is usually employed. Mironov et al (2003) report on a modernized method that has been developed, based on melting holes in ice ridge/stamukha by hot water jets with computer recording of the drill submergence rate, temperature of water fed to the drill and water pressure in the hole. The drilling rate depends on the quantity and temperature of water and ice properties. The computer record of the drill submergence rate and processing of these data make it possible to
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obtain information on the ice ridge/stamukha internal structure. In 2001, a new thermal drill system was produced and tested at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI). In February 2002 field studies of the geometrical characteristics of stamukhas and their internal structure were conducted in the North Caspian Sea using thermal water drilling. As a result, new full-scale data on the thickness distribution of stamukhas were obtained, including their freeboard and draft, consolidated layer boundaries, distribution of hard and soft ice layers and voids. Bonnemaire et al (2003) examined a first-year ice ridge in the Barents Sea, west of Hopen. The morphology, geometry, physical and mechanical properties of this ridge are reported and discussed in relation to the literature. The keel depth was 15m, the sail height 4.7m and the average thickness of the consolidated layer 1.9m. The overall porosity was measured to be 24%, and the porosity of the sail and the keel were respectively 15% and 30%. The thickness of the ice blocks varied from 0.1 to 2m. However, 40% were between 0.30 and 0.35m thick, 24% were 0.5-0,7m, and 21% from 0.8 to 1.0m thick. This indicates that initial rafting had occurred, and layers could also be seen in the blocks. The average length/width/thickness ratio of the blocks in the sail was 4.4:2.1:1. Hardness tests were conducted, where a steel ball was dropped on the ice and the size of the penetration was measured. The hardness, the salinity and the density had a wavelike dependency on the depth; this wave pattern seems to correspond with the observed rafted layers. To continue this research, two slabs of ice from the consolidated layer of a ridge were delivered to the University Centre on Svalbard (UNIS) and investigations of the uniaxial compressive strength, salinity, density and ice texture were done (Hoyland et al, 2003). One hundred forty-four (144) samples with a geometry of 160 x 60 x 20mm were compressed with a constant strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and 10-4 s-1. Vertical and horizontal & samples were tested. The average strength for = 10-3 s-1 was 4.8 MPa and 4.9 MPa for & respectively the vertical and horizontal samples, and 4.3 MPa and 2.5 MPa for = 10-4 -1 s . There was little variation in the strength over the depth. The salinity was generally about 2 ppt, but both samples had a peak at about 0.6m depth. This is lower than what was measured in the field and shows that brine had drained during storage. The density was on average 803kg/m3 and had a standard deviation of 108 kg/m3. 2.4.2 Remotely Sensed Ice Measurements
Remote measuring instrumentation is normally used for studying the ice cover as a geographical object. Zubakin et al (2005) list remote observation methods such as decoding satellite photographs of various resolution, aerophotography, laser profiling of the lower surface, and radar thickness-metering mapping of glaciers. The main informational sources on the ice conditions in the Arctic and in freezing seas are data obtained by satellites in various spectral ranges: visible, infrared (IR) and radar. Radar imagery obtained from Radarsat satellites is mostly informational. All the gradations of the ice age can be discerned by them; however, in the summer, determination of ice age characteristics is hampered by intensive ice thawing. The drawback of radar satellites is in the narrow swath and high cost of the data. Therefore,
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in order to analyse the ice conditions, IR and visible imageries from satellites (ASTER, NOAA, TERRA) are typically used together with radar satellites. As reported by Pozdnyakov et al (2005), the mutual use of radar imagery of the Canadian Radarsat satellite and IR medium resolution imagery of the ASTER satellite is of maximum interest for the monitoring and mapping of ice conditions. In this case the most accurate interpretation of radar imagery is achieved. Hequan et al (2004) researched the possibility of combining the radar imagery with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) for full field measurement of sea ice drift. They presented the theory and implementation of cross-correlation in PIV and compared it with the traditional tracing method to show convincingly the validity of using PIV. Enomoto et al (2003) analysed sea ice motion in the Okhotsk Sea by using satellite microwave sensors and coastal radar. Aerophotography is widely used in expeditionary investigations for receiving mass material in plane and vertical ice formation dimensions (ridges, stamukhas, ice bergs). The aerophotography procedure considered in Borodulin et al (2004) anticipates use of GARMINs GPSMAP 195 for determining the location of a helicopter, and Leicas photogrammetric working station SD 3000 for measuring aerophotography coordinates. The photogrammetric analysis produces a digitized ice cover surface and generates 3D models of ice formations. Aerophotography data, in combination with laser profiling of the ice cover upper surface, are used as a source of point values exceeding the relatively level snow covered ice surface along the airplane / helicopter-borne flight line. These data are used to estimate values of ice formation morphometric data possible one time per N years. Classification of sea ice based on active remote measuring could be improved by using multi-frequency data with multi-polarization. Kern and Gade (2004) present results of the first analysis of such data obtained using a helicopter-borne HELISCAT multi-frequency (five frequency bands) scatterometer with multi-polarization (all analogous and cross-polarization), during ARK XIX/1 round Svalbard. Sonar surveys of the lower surface of the ice cover have been carried out during the last few years to verify and refine morphometric estimates of underwater portions of ridged formations, as well as the level of ridge and stamukha keel effects on the seabed. According to Zubakin et al (2004b) present capabilities do not permit generation of a 3D model of the lower surface of the ice cover comparable to what can be achieved for the upper surface; however, in the foreseeable future the modernization of equipment will permit increasing accuracy of the information obtained. 2.4.3 Numerical Modelling to Complement Measured Ice Data
Ice cover and icebergs are the most dangerous environmental components of the Arctic environment and must be taken into account for Arctic shipping. Information on the ice cover parameters obtained from local and remote sources is subjected to numerical simulation procedures and statistical analysis and is used for regulating the strength of engineering structures and ships that may be used. The following main characteristics are usually considered: ice edge position and ice cover extent; ice concentration; age gradations; hummock and ridge concentration; ice and iceberg motion velocities their size, quantity, distribution density, frequency of occurrence, etc.
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In recent years increased attention has been paid to studying the ice conditions in the Shtokman gas-condensate field (SGCF) located in the Barents Sea. The field is unique not only in its colossal reserves but also in the context of the complex and challenging natural conditions for operations. The main natural challenges to SGCF hydrocarbon production are: water depth, complex seabed relief, remoteness from the shore, air temperature, wave and wind all complicated by the presence of ice cover and icebergs. Because of a combination of these factors, the SGCF development and operation can be considered the most challenging on the Arctic shelf to-date. Zubakin et al (2004c & 2004d) through complex statistical analysis have developed correlation functions between the seasons and ice cover; for example April is the month with the maximum average annual ice spread in the Barents Sea (the correlation factor is 0.83). They also have investigated inter-year character of ice spreading in the Barents Sea (for 19002003) and the SGCF area (for 1960-2003) and established a correlation factor of 0.6. They have analysed the process of second year ice getting to the SGCF area and have found that appearance of the second year ice with 220-270 cm thickness in that area is quite probable. Naumov (2004) has researched the probability of iceberg appearance in the SGCF area through the statistical analysis of multi-year observations and taking into account the abnormally large number of icebergs recorded during the expedition of 2003. For the design of oil-gas fields Mironov et al (2003) summarized the results of five years of researching ice conditions in the northwest region of the Caspian Sea. Drifting positions of the ice edge were found to be dependent on severity of ice conditions. Distribution functions were obtained for the morphometric parameters of rafted ice thicknesses, ridges and stamukhas. They estimated stamukha indentation depth into the seabed to be 1.3-1.5m, and established the range of ice strength limits under bending (0.6-1.4 MPa) and uniaxial compression (1.0-2.0 MPa). McKenna et al (2003) studied iceberg management strategy on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. Detection and iceberg ranges were converted to time through iceberg drift rates. Times associated with physical management operations were estimated, with increasing success, for time taken through repeated attempts. In the case of movable platforms such as FPSOs, emergency disconnection time is considered. Peterson (2004) describes a regression model for long-term forecasting of iceberg population on the Grand Banks. The model was generated from data of the Ice Patrol Iceberg Sightings Database (1960-2002) and ice charts of Canadian Ice Service (CIS). In Barker et al (2004) a new operational forecasting model for iceberg drift, deterioration, and calving is developed. In this model, based on available iceberg data, empiric equations were obtained describing keel cross-sectional areas at different depth intervals from a given waterline length, as well as determination of sail area, draft and mass as functions of waterline length. In Kubat et al (2004) a new ice thickness distribution formulation was developed as part of the CIS operational forecasting model. The new approach is based on assuming the ice cover to consist of level and ridged parts. The model accounts for the evolution of the concentration and thickness of each part in response to mechanical deformation.
24 2.4.4 Uncertainties in Ice Data
When determining ice loads occurring under forced interaction with vessel hulls and offshore structures, a set of parameters characterizing ice cover properties as both a physical body and a geographic object is required. Consideration of the uncertainties in the specification of these parameters is especially important when forecasting extreme loads. Since ice load values are normally determined from the failure of the ice when interacting with the structure, considerable attention is paid to ice strength limits (under bending, compression, etc.). Strength limits are influenced by ice salinity and temperature, loading rate, specimen stress state character and dimensions (scale effect). Uncertainties in the determination of strength limits are exacerbated by the problem of maintaining identity of the full-scale field factors when extracted ice samples are tested for strength. Uncertainty levels can be minimized by approaching full-scale boundary conditions as far as possible during strength tests. This has led to efforts to conduct strength tests of large-scale specimens under field conditions and directly in the seawater if possible. For the past few years large-scale ice strength testing under compression and interaction with an indenter (restrained compression) has been included in the list of conducted field studies (Zubakin et al, 2004a & Zubakin et al, 2005). In the compression tests a horizontal load is applied by using a loading plate to an ice cantilever (46-48cm width) cut out of the level ice through its entire thickness. In the restrained compression tests an indenter with a 145mm diameter is used instead of the loading plate. The test result analysis includes finite-element modelling of the processes of ice deformation and failure. Comparison of the numerical and experimental data is a basis for perfecting methods for establishing ice loads on ice-resistant structures. Similar approaches are used for studying the physical and mechanical properties of ridges. The following large-scale measurements are carried out using special equipment to obtain ridge strength integral characteristics (Smirnov et al, 2000): punch shear tests, direct shear tests and pull-up tests. Statistical data on morphometric characteristics of level and deformed ice (thickness, dimensions, etc.), as well as data on iceberg appearance frequency and dimensions, affect the ice load values. Long-term forecast of these characteristics is conducted based on statistical processing of multi-year observations. It is assumed that the observations include sufficiently complete information on abnormally severe Arctic conditions as well. However, new information on abnormal phenomena could create significant uncertainties in determining ice cover characteristics. Thus, according to Naumov (2004), for 1881-1993 in the SGCF area (between the latitudes of 72 and 74 degrees North and longitudes of 40 and 45 degrees East) 30 icebergs were recorded, and during the expedition of 2003 in the same area an abnormally high number of icebergs (41) and the appearance of second-year ice fields were recorded. The statistics based on many years of data give the following results. Taking into account the 2003 observations, the probability of iceberg appearance in the SGCF area increases by a factor of 3 (from 11 6 units one time per 100 years to 36 21 units one time per 100 years), and the probability of iceberg collision with a platform increases by a factor of 10 (from one time
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per 295 years to 1 time per 35 years). According to long-term observations reported by Zubakin et al (2004d), first-year ice with limiting thickness up to 150mm has appeared in the SGCF area. The expedition of 2003 recorded the edges of second year Arctic ice (220-270mm thickness) from northwest of the Kara Sea in the SGCF area up to a latitude of 75 degrees North. Change of wind flow to the northwest could bring this heavy ice to the SGCF area for 7-10 days. Therefore, given the abnormally high quantity of the icebergs and position of the second year Arctic ice edges, the data of the 2003 expedition call into question the completeness of the previous perennial observations and increase the uncertainty of the obtained long-term assessments of the ice cover characteristics.
3. 3.1
MODELLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENA Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Descriptions of Wind
Jrgensen et al (2001) present an interesting comparison of satellite derived SAR winds, numerical models and measurement from a mast at the Horns Rev site offshore wind farm in Denmark. A careful selection of comparative data was made to ensure sensible comparisons could be made between SAR and model results (e.g., to avoid frontal situations and hence rapid changes in both wind speed and direction). Good comparisons were achieved between the KAMM2 mesoscale wind model and measurements from the anemometer mast, as well as from the occasions when SAR images were available. It is clear that additional value can be extracted from the SAR scenes which contain information on wind streaks and frontal systems and which will in future be used to enhance numerical models. Lehner and Horstmann (2002), report the optimisation possibilities of including detailed SAR based winds in other mesoscale models used for public weather forecasts, such as KAMM, HIRLAM etc. The SAR data are used to improve wind fields in the commercially important coastal region where turbulence effects and coarse topography might otherwise limit the accuracy of the forecasts. Chu et al (2004) compare a Wavewatch-III model of the South China Sea with measurements of wave parameters from TOPEX and Poseidon (T/P) satellites. In the process they also quote differences in the measurement of wind speed from the QSCAT and T/P sensors, the largest differences occurring during passage of tropical storms when the QSCAT data tend to be sensitive to heavy rain. Quilfen et al (2004) stress the importance of knowledge of integrated sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and steepness when interpreting remotely sensed wind data from satellite scatterometers. It is interesting to note that as groundtruth for calibrating the process, measurements of sea conditions from offshore buoys as well as from satellites themselves were considered. Cox et al (2004) have demonstrated a method of extending the North Atlantic wind (and hence wave) hindcast database back in time to the early 1900s through the use of daily sea-level pressure (DSLP) data well before upper air measurements or satellite data were available. Comparison of wave and wind products for the same year from the more recent AES40 hindcast enabled adjustments to be made to the DSLP hindcasts, and these could thereafter be verified on independent years. Extension of the time period of
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regional hindcast databases is very valuable for the industry in enabling greater confidence to be placed in extreme value estimates as well as enabling the study of climate trends and variability. Caires and colleagues (Caires et al, 2004; Caires & Sterl, 2003) performed a comparison of regional wind-wave reanalyses against measurements and found significantly better comparisons of the wind parameters outside the tropics and in the northern hemisphere. For winds, they conclude that there is room for improvement in the modelling of tropical wind fields as well as in the coverage of wind ground truth data in the southern hemisphere. 3.2 Waves
A notable improvement to the physics of the wave models is the return to a more physical parameterization of the dissipation in 3G WAM (Bidlot et al, 2005; Lefevre & Stefanescu, 2004). This new source term reduces the artificial swell/wind sea interactions (e.g., the normalized RMS error on the Brittany and Gascogne buoys in West Atlantic decreases from 0.21 to 0.13 for the winter hindcasts). Meanwhile, rigorous integrations of the non-linear source term still can not be accommodated in practical wave models. Concerning the tropical cyclones and the very strong winds, Powell et al (2003), starting from measurements by GPS sonde available from numerous tropical cyclones since 1997, revisited the relationship between wind and drag coefficient Cd and surface roughness in very strong wind situations. Their analysis determined a levelling off and reduction of the Cd in wind speeds >34m/s. This new relationship calls in question the formulation of the wind stress source term, and will have a strong effect on storm surge calculations. Most improvements in the description of random waves are on theoretical ground. They are based on nonlinear approaches to second or higher order and they take into account stationary as well as time dependent sea states. Many papers deal with the probability distribution of nonlinear wave heights and wave crests. Great attention is devoted to the highest steep waves and to the statistical description of extreme sea states. Some results obtained from previous statistical and simulation models are compared with field data with encouraging results, and proper improvements of those models are suggested. 3.2.1 Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Description of Waves
One of the most important pieces of analytical research for nonlinear sea waves is the revisiting of the Inverse Scattering Technique originally found by Gardner et al (1974) and applied to the ocean waves by Osborne et al (2004). It also gives the theoretical basis of so-called breather type solutions of the nonlinear Schrdinger (NLS) equation. Many exact solutions are derived with the assumption of small steepness, and it is very illustrative to examine their behaviour numerically in the case of large amplitude. For example, the maximum envelope solution of water waves and its stability against
27
perturbations present an interesting problem in this context. The crest instability is also pertinent relating to the initial onset of breaking waves in the ocean. Wave modelling studies are categorized into three classes that take nonlinearity of ocean waves into account. The first class is the lowest order weakly nonlinear model of PDE (developing equation) for example the NLS equation and the Dysthe equation which is clear in its physical concept and relatively easily computed. See for example Krogstad et al (2004). These computations are not so time consuming but are limited to the case of very narrow banded wave spectra. Several new concepts are developed in this context. Karjanto et al (2002) presented an article reviewing the interrelation within linear and nonlinear instability of a wave train with an exact solution of the NLS equation and yielding the maximum amplitude amplification up to three times larger than carrier waves within the limits of the slowest modulation (where the growth rate tends to zero). It clarified the relationship between the breather solution to the NLS equation and modulational (Benjamin-Feir) instability. Karjanto and Groesen (2004) examined in more detail, in connection with the spatial NLS equation, exact solutions to the NLS equation, in particular the so-called breather type solutions; see also Dysthe and Trulsen (1999). They formulated the method of generating a maximum wave group in a flume and classified three types of breather solutions: Ma breather, rational breather and SFB (solution in finite background). It is possible to get rid of the 2D and narrow band assumption by using the socalled Zakharov equation. These model equations are generally valid up to the 3rd or 4th order of wave steepness. An excellent example of this case is found in Janssen (2003). He compared the stochastic theory with the Monte Carlo simulation, with an emphasis on non-Gaussian statistics. Semi-analytical studies for the iterative solution of the Stokes wave profile, using the mathematical background of the Banach fixed point theorem were performed by Jang et al (2005a; 2005b). This approach yields very simple determination of composite wave profiles for in-situ data. The second class of wave modelling study is the systematic simulation of ocean random waves with its second order solutions. This is a useful way to estimate the probability of the appearance of high wave crests and a very practical basis for developing the design of ocean structures. The third class of study is some direct numerical simulation technique applicable to a physical experiment conducted in a wave flume with and without floating bodies. Any higher order simulation is possible by means of the spectral method, which was invented by Donmermuth and Yue (1976) and is valid for any high order of nonlinearity M as a parameter. Mori and Yasuda (2002a) made use of this technique up to M=3 for a Wallops type spectrum. Tanaka (2005) conducted a long duration calculation of a random field using the Pierson-Moskowiz spectrum with emphasis on the non-linear effect in a random wave field with M=6.
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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment Fully nonlinear boundary conditions are implemented in a 2- or 3-dimensional wave flume (numerical ocean) by many authors, for example Fochesato et al (2005). One of the representative techniques makes use of the combination of the BIE (boundary integral equation) with the Euler-Lagrangean tracing of surface particles. The finite difference equation method can also be used for the 2D numerical wave tank, as was done by Parsons and Baddour (2005). However, 3D direct computation of PDE is not practical at its present stage. One of the alternatives for 3D computation is to solve the integro-differential equation of Zakharov, which is then reduced to the simultaneous ODE. Even in this case, nonlinear tertiary wave interaction depends on the coherency of waves in a random sea. Kim and Ertekin (2000) examined this crucial problem by using the Green-Naghdi model numerically. This model assumes an incompressible, inviscid, irrotational and non-breaking sea; however, it includes vertical distribution of flow velocity under the surface. Again, the ratio H max / H s is found to be 3.1 at the average wave steepness ak equal to 0.1. (This means that the maximum extreme wave does not necessarily appear in the most severe sea state.) Direct simulation of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equation is examined in recent studies that are valid for the sea surface accompanied by wind forcing surface current, varying large scale flows and/or wave breaking conditions that have been neglected in other computations. Kawamura and Mitomi (2005) apply this kind of computation to wind wave generation. The result is a rhombic pattern at the initial stage of wind wave generation. A 3D computation was developed for free surface flow by Yang and Loehner (2005). The computation is extremely time consuming and requires a great amount of computer resources, so it is at this stage available only for the local properties of the ocean surface.
In addition to the above described theoretical developments, the following are noteworthy contributions to our understanding of physical waves and the analysis of them. A unified 3D nonlinear wave generation theory derived by Zhang and Shffer (2004 & 2005) introduces a deterministic combination of a numerical and physical wave model in two horizontal dimensions. Newly developed models based on the HHT (Hilbert-Huang Transformation) are described and applied by Dtig and Schlurmann (2004), Veltcheva and Guedes Soares (2004a, 2004b) and Varadarajan and Nagarajaiah (2005). Another interesting technique for time frequency analysis is the wavelet analysis. Recent results are given by Lee and Kwon (2003) and Kwon et al (2005). Some developments have occurred on the time-frequency analysis of wave data. Guedes Soares and Cherneva (2005) analysed wave records with the spectrogram, which is based on the short-time Fourier transform. This describes the time frequency evolution of the properties of ocean wind waves, which allows a better understanding of the occurrence and evolution of wave groups.
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Newly developed models based on the HHT (Hilbert-Huang Transformation) are described and applied by Dtig and Schlurmann (2004), Veltcheva and Guedes Soares (2004a, 2004b), Varadarajan and Nagarajaiah (2005) and Veltcheva et al (2005). The HHT method attempts to extract all oscillations embedded in the data without setting any subjective preliminary limitation about the nature of the investigated phenomenon. The confidence limit for the Empirical Mode Decomposition was first determined and the obtained Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) well defined. The orthogonality of the IMF sets was also verified. The specific peculiarities of the wave process are well captured by EMD and reproduced by IMF. Pascoal et al (2005b) showed that the HHT estimates depend to a large extent on the stopping criteria for the sifting procedure in the choice of the IMFs, and they presented results comparing the adoption of various alternatives. 3.2.2 Statistical Description of Waves
To give a detailed description of the wave climate under the stationarity hypothesis and in the absence of current, parametric spectral models are commonly used. The most known spectral types are Pierson Moskowitz and JONSWAP as unimodal spectra and Ochi-Hubble and Torsethaugen as bimodal spectra, in the presence of both swell and wind waves. The actual tendency for the unimodal spectra is to modify the traditional high frequency tail from f-5 to f-4. Dawson and Wallendorf (2003) introduce a spectrum modified to JONSWAP33 with constant equilibrium coefficient, and they compare the statistical differences between the traditional and modified spectra, which consist of an appreciable difference in wave periods but not in wave heights; in addition, the ratio between significant wave height and spectral wave height assumes the same value, 3.87/4. A revision of the Pierson Moskowitz asymptotic limits for fully developed wind sea is made by Alves et al (2003) from data selected from the original ones. They conclude that only scaling with U10 provides statistically robust relations for dimensional and dimensionless parameters satisfying the Kitaigordskii similarity theory and that the high frequency tail f-4 provides a better fit to the data than f-5. A further result is that the dominant waves for the sea states corresponding to full development should not break or should break only rarely, as expected. Torsethaugen and Haver (2004) propose a new version of the double peak spectral model for open ocean areas where the waves are dominated by local wind sea but also exposed to swell. For the locally fully developed sea, a spectral period related to the significant wave height Tpf=asHs1/3, with a slight dependence of as on fetch, is defined to classify sea states as wind sea if Tp< Tpf or swell if Tp> Tpf, each consisting of a two-wave system. Empirical parameters given by significant wave height and spectral peak period define both the spectral form and the energy distribution between the two systems. The exponent of the high frequency tail is f-4 for all sea states. As regards the directional spreading, no new models have been proposed since 2002. Increasing attention has been paid to statistics of the ocean surface, especially by taking into account the nonlinear behaviour. Liu et al (2005) reviews and discusses the feasibility of different probability distribution functions of the surface elevation, which are grouped into two categories. The first is derived from probability theory and the second obtained directly from the ocean wave equation. The distributions are fitted to
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simulated deep water surface elevation reconstructed to the second and third order, starting from the modified NLS equation. The results show that the Pearson family appears the most flexible but other probability distribution functions may be used, based on the values assumed by the skewness, the kurtosis and the surface steepness. The statistical distribution of zero upcrossing periods in Gaussian wave mixed sea state is examined by Rodriguez et al (2004) by using numerically simulated data. The results seem to be adequately represented by the model proposed by Myrhaug and Slaattelid (1999), which consists of two two-parameter Weibull distributions. Joint and marginal distributions of wave envelope amplitude and local wave period for a Gaussian process are obtained by Stansell et al (2004), with sampling frequency equal to the local wave frequency. The new pdf provides a better approximation of the simulated zero downcrossing wave amplitude than either the traditional Rayleigh pdf or the Longuet-Higginss narrow-bandwidth approximation. The limitation is the assumption that the individual wave amplitude can be obtained from the amplitude of the wave envelope, which becomes more stringent as the bandwidth increases. Scott et al (2005a, 2005b) apply a new wavelet analysis both to open ocean wave data and to field experiments to estimate the directionality and crest length of steep waves. They found that high wave slope crests appear over a wide range of wave number, with a large number being shorter than the dominant wave. In addition, most of the steep wave crests are normal to the direction of the mean wind, which appears inconsistent with the Fourier wave number spectrum. Probably most steep waves are short crested and generate leakage in an oblique direction in the Fourier spectrum. Many studies have been carried out to describe the crest height distribution with linear and nonlinear second or higher order models. Stansberg (2003) analyses irregular unidirectional laboratory data simulating a 100 year North Sea storm of 18 hours duration in order to examine the Gaussian and nonlinear content, and shows that the second order model predicts at least half of the deviations from a Rayleigh distribution, while higher order effects may explain the remaining deviations. Wolfram and Venugopal (2003), starting from wave crest statistics obtained from deep water storm wave field data collected over 7 years on a fixed platform in the northern North Sea show that second order pdf models previously obtained by Forristal (2000), Kriebel and Dawson (1993) and Prevosto (1998), produce a quite good prediction except for the most extreme values measured, where the probability may be underestimated by around 20%. Dawson (2004) applies Stokes fifth order wave theory in connection with variable narrow banded frequency spectra in order to make appropriate corrections to the Rayleigh cumulative probability of the crest amplitudes which exceed specific threshold levels on the basis of laboratory simulations of JONSWAP sea. Prevosto and Forristal (2004) compare the crest statistics derived by applying different second order models to the results obtained from the WACSIS (Wave Crest Sensor Intercomparison Study) project. They highlight the superiority of two new models, the first based on the exact asymptotic narrow band transfer coefficient given in a previous
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paper by Prevosto et al (2000) and the second based on a very simple perturbated Weibull model that does not take into account explicitly the directional spreading. These second order models are tested on data from five different sensors in the WACSIS data set (intermediate and deep water depths) and on the existing methodology for extreme crest and wave height analysis, and they are applied to time series and climate wave data by Krogstad and Barstow (2004) with satisfactory results. Fedele and Arenas (2003, 2004) theoretical developments on troughs extend to the second order Boccottis theory of quasi-determinism for spectra of finite bandwidth. The goal was to obtain the nonlinear surface elevation for long crested deep water waves with a given initial local maximum and to find the necessary and sufficient condition for the occurrence in a Gaussian sea of two successive wave crests of large height that follow a bivariate Weibull distribution. Tromans and Vandershuren (2004) demonstrate the potential of the spectral response surface (SRS) method, which works in the probability domain for calculating crest exceedance probabilities in random directional sea in arbitrary water depth. The method seems accurate for practical application to extreme crests. Baxevani et al (2005) present a new method for estimating the design wave starting with the crest height distribution of individual waves after introducing an accurate second order model (SORM) for approximating the tails of the crest height distribution. Tayfun (2004) develops further the least upper bound (LUB) theory recently proposed by Tayfun and Al-Humond (2002) for the statistical distribution of nonlinear wave crests in extreme sea states to explore the nature of freak waves, revealing that rare occurrences and outliers occur with relatively high frequency. The probability that a wave will exceed a certain level during a specific time period has been studied by Arena (2004), on the basis of the Boccottis equivalent triangular storm (ETS) and Baxevani and Rychlik (2004), starting from a two dimensional model moving with time. Also applying the ETS model, Arena and Pavone (2005) give the analytical solution for the return period of a sea storm in which the maximum nonlinear crest height exceeds a fixed threshold. The behaviour and evolution of nonlinear wave groups associated with a high crest are the subject of theoretical studies by Tayfun (2005), Arena (2005) and Arena and Fedele (2005). Tayfun gives a theoretical expression for the statistics of nonlinear wave crests and their groups, and compares the result with nonlinear data from the North Sea. The other authors describe large sea wave groups and their space-time evolution. The problem of estimating and detecting wave groups from SAR images and radar image sequences is the subject of two papers by Dankert et al (2003) and Niedermeier et al (2005). The behaviour and asymmetries of individual waves have been analysed from field data collected using wave altimeters in the northern North Sea by Stansell et al (2003), who observe that the fronts of large wave crests tend to be steeper than their backs. They use the generalised Pareto distribution to establish a simple model for predicting the probability of extreme wave steepness conditioned on the dimensionless wave height. Also Guedes Soares et al (2004b) and Guedes Soares and Pascoal (2005) examined steep waves in a storm sea state and propose several steepness coefficients. Grue et al (2003)
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describe velocity profiles under the crests of steep laboratory waves using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The joint probability density function of significant wave height and mean wave period was obtained by Minoura and Naito (2003) after introducing a new factor, which is a function of a steepness parameter. An extension of the joint omnidirectional probabilistic model including a combined sea and the possibility of environmental parameters approaching from different directions is presented by Bitner-Gregersen (2005), who proposed two approaches for wind sea and swell modelling. Stochastic modelling and simulation of the sea state parameter process was performed by Ailliot et al (2003) to assess the profitability of a maritime line. These techniques could be integrated, in the future, into the planning and decision making of offshore and nearshore operations. Baxevani et al (2003) describe a preliminary analysis of the significant wave height as measured along satellite tracks in the middle Atlantic; they use Gaussian models to derive the distribution of storm length and joint distribution of storm length and storm amplitude. As regards long term prediction of significant wave height, an application of the r largest order statistics has been made by Guedes Soares and Scotto (2004) to estimate return values of significant wave height. A case study is presented and the results are compared with those obtained from the annual maxima method. Rutten et al (2004) apply an extreme value analysis (which is a threshold based on generalised Pareto distribution in combination with maximum likelihood estimation) to POT (Peak-of-Threshold) data to derive four extreme value characteristics that are used to quantify the extreme value behaviour. 3.2.3 Shallow Water Waves
Models derived from the third generation WAM model, such as SWAN, are still utilized to describe shallow water wave climate. Applications are given by Ponce de Leon et al (2004) and Rusu et al (2005). Some recent developments have been introduced to evaluate the nonlinear interaction, such as the one by Onorato et al (2004b). Other models, which describe the propagation of wave climate from deep water to the nearshore zone with reference to a spectrum, to a single wave, or to a representative wave, have been provided or revised. Kobayashi and Yasuda (2004) couple a WAM model utilized to compute an offshore wave field with statistical methods that are constructed with the principal component analysis, adopted to obtain the transfer coefficients from offshore to onshore with a Kalman filter. The accuracy of the prediction depends strongly on the values given to the parameters involved. To the half-plane version of the shallow water wave model STWAVE introduced by Smith et al (2001), McKee Smith and Resio (2004) add a new
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full-plane version that allows wave input on all boundaries and wave generation from all directions. Numerical linear and nonlinear wave models able to describe wave propagation over a sloping bottom are examined and compared by Gil et al (2004). The four models are: The linear 3D DREAMS model by Fortes (1993), based on the MSE (mild slope equation) solved by means of the FEM using triangular elements. The fully nonlinear CANAL model by Clement (1991), based on the assumption of free-surface potential flow, which solves the initial boundary wave problem by a mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian method. The nonlinear FEM-NMSE model by Nadaoka et al (1994), based upon the two-dimensional version of the time dependent nonlinear MSE, with all the lowest order nonlinear contribution retained. The nonlinear FUNWAVE model by Wei et al (1995) based upon the fully nonlinear Boussinesq equation by Nwogu (1993), extended to intermediate water.
Comparison of the results shows that the nonlinear models give encouraging results but they are very time consuming. Thus for a first approach the linear model is sufficient. Scott et al (2004) present a generalized wave-ray approach based on a semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme minimizing the number of mathematical operations required in each propagation step. A series of applications of the wave model that is based on the second generation physics are carried out. Recently, several models have been developed on the basis of the Boussinesq equation, with regard to spectra or regular waves. As regards the spectral approach, Bingham and Agnon (2005) derived a FourierBoussinesq fully dispersive model by introducing the generalized (2D) Hilbert transform; the model may be suitable to transfer wave spectra from deep to shallow water for several bottom conditions. Memos et al (2005) propose a nonlinear wave propagation model based on a higher order depth-integrated Boussinesq-type equation for breaking and non breaking waves. Their model is able to predict irregular unidirectional and multidirectional wave fields in the nearshore zone. Gerosthathis et al (2005) present a coupled-mode phase resolving model able to give the linear transfer function connecting an incident directional spectrum with the local conditions over a region of strongly varying bottom topography. As regards a regular wave, a new model is given by Hirayama and Hirashi (2005) for wave breaking and run-up, and by Musumeci et al (2005) for the shoaling in the surf zone. Traditional transformation models have also been revised. Rattanapitikon et al (2003) describes and compares the results from four different models that are able to describe wave conditions in the surf zone through step-by-step integration after introducing an irregular wave breaking approach. These are a representative wave model, a spectral
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wave model with reference to each component, a probabilistic model with reference to individual waves, and a parametric model. Grasmeijer and Ruessink (2003) compare the results obtained from a parametric model (which is relevant to the root mean square wave height, the peak period and the energy-weighted mean angle) and a probabilistic model (which adopts 10-12 classes of wave heights and the corresponding periods). Some numerical studies of nonlinear deep water wave group evolution suggest that wave breaking onset is associated primarily with a threshold behaviour linked to the nonlinear hydrodynamics of wave groups. Some findings from Holthuijsen and Herbers (1986) suggest a global view of wave breaking rather than local criteria. To quantify the mean nonlinearity of the waves, including the higher wave number components, Alves and Banner (2003) and Banner et al (2004) introduce the azimuth-integrated spectral saturation as an alternative to the significant steepness, which is only applicable to the spectral peak. They propose a new form of the dissipation rate term in the radiative transfer equation and extract breaking probabilities for the dominant wind waves. Comparisons of radar and video observation of shallow water breaking waves made by Haller and Lyzenga (2003) show that radar is a very good detector of shallow water breaking waves and suggest that radar can be used for the measurements of the spatial and temporal variation of wave breaking. An analytical extension of the transformation of water height distribution on a plane beach including shoaling and breaking is formulated by Mendez et al (2004) with a single function and only one shape parameter, after assuming an initially seaward Rayleigh pdf. Second order short crest waves riding on a uniform current in shallow water are derived by Jensen (2004) who takes into account randomness, direction and shape of the wave spectrum in the wave kinematic description. Many aspects of wave statistics in intermediate depth have been studied, starting from the analysis of wave data collected during the WACSIS project (Forristal et al, 2002). As regards the behaviour of the individual waves, vertical asymmetries of the largest waves have been detected by Taylor and Williams (2004) by assuming a second order correction in the wave steepness on the linear part of a large wave in intermediate depth described by the New Wave model; very small horizontal asymmetries are found. Katsardi and Swan (2005) examined the kinematics under the extreme waves and the wave modulation in intermediate and shallow water by using two models the fully nonlinear model which describes the evolution of a directionally spread wave field without taking into account the physical processes, by Bateman et al (2001), and the model based on the wave evolution equation, originally proposed by Zakharov and derived in Hamiltonian form by Krasitskii (1994), which is exact to the fourth order. After considering realistic sea spectra the authors show that the evolution of large waves in intermediate depth reach a limiting state with the ratio of wave height to water depth equal to 0.55 and not 0.78, as usually accepted for regular waves. Cherneva et al (2005) examined the adequacy of different probability distribution functions to describe the crests, troughs and heights obtained from field data in a coastal zone. A new JIP has been launched (LoWish: Limits on Waves in shallow water) to quantify, through
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laboratory and numerical experiments, the uncertainty in calculating maximum wave heights on mild continental shelf slopes. Attention has always be given to long waves, also called infragravity waves, which in the nearshore zone may involve aspects of maritime and coastal activities. The results of numerical simulations of bound long waves derived from multidirectional random waves are given by Gentile et al (2004) and Haime and Hisamich (2005). Moritz (2004) describes and elaborates field data. Several coastal measurement campaigns, such as SHOWEX (A SHOaling Waves Experiment) and NCEX, (The Nearshore Canyon Experiment) in the USA, and AUSWEX (AUstralian Shallow Water EXperiment) are currently being analysed. Preliminary results have confirmed the impact of sediments on the bottom shear stress. 3.3 Current
The main applications that have been driving current studies and measurements are global circulation for climate models, and acoustic transmission properties of the water mass at slightly more local and short scale. The scientific community is conducting several major programs for the forecasting and observation of ocean currents; see for instance the GODAE Symposium (2004). Prediction systems are run by Australia, France, Japan, Norway, UK and USA (see Section 2.3.3 above). These models are, however, dealing with time scales of at least one day; the link with current profiles that could be used for the design of structures is presently rarely addressed and no report of any reliable quantitative validation for engineering purposes could be found in the literature. For offshore systems, the favoured practice is still to deploy current profilers at the location of interest for some period and analyse the measurements. However, due mainly to the storage constraints of the measurement systems, short-term current gustiness, i.e. variability in the range of a few seconds to a few minutes, is captured poorly or not at all. One of the rare attempts to study the high time- and space-resolution of the current is the Norwegian measurement campaigns in the scope of the Ormen Lange project (Kleiven & Eide, 2005). When moving to deeper waters, it may be expected that gustiness will decrease, at least for those phenomena such as internal waves that are known to be amplified by continental shelves. Yet some phenomena such as small scale vortices may well drift into deep water regions, unnoticed until operators set up production systems there. Our measuring capacity seems close to reaching the point at which we can get at least some information on current gustiness down to time intervals below one minute, a time scale approaching the range of dynamic structure responses. Any opportunity should be taken to investigate further the possibility of such measurements, and of characterizing the associated statistics and profiles.
36 3.3.1
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Description of Current
Recent achievements are reviewed in Chassignet and Verron (2005), and an intercomparison of European models can be found in Crosnier and Le Provost (2004). The various open ocean models can be classified by the choice of vertical coordinate. The latter can be fixed for z-levelled (MITgcm, NLOM, OPA) and terrain-following (ROMS) models or variable for isopycnal models (MICOM, HYCOM). Z-level coordinate models are better suited for the open ocean surface processes, sigma-coordinate models for shallow waters and coastal seas and isopycnal coordinates for the shelf break. Hybrid coordinate models like HYCOM can combine the advantages of each system (Bleck, 2002). These models implemented at sufficiently high resolution (1-10km) resolve the eddy activity in the west of Scotland and in West Africa (Evensen, 1999). At even higher resolution, non-hydrostatic models (like the MITgcm) are important tools to study small scale currents, but these are not yet connected to operating forecasting models. Significant progress has been achieved in the numerical solutions used in the models as well as in data assimilation and in the meteorological input. However, the extent and quality of observations are still inadequate, especially in coastal waters. As input fields, the real-time models use the numerical weather forecasts for NWP centres and provide initial and lateral boundary conditions to local high-resolution models. The open ocean models assimilate sea surface heights from four satellite altimeters for positioning eddies. Models covering the Arctic are coupled with sea-ice models and assimilate ice concentrations from SSM/I to position the ice edge. Although there is little documentation of the comparison between measured current profiles and model forecasts, validation results against non-assimilated data or profiles from ARGO floats are synthesized routinely on the various project Web pages and the systems provide output data files through LAS servers. The usefulness of numerical ocean forecast for operations is currently being investigated, in particular through pilot ocean services like Ocean FOCUS. Reanalysis activities are underway in many of the above-mentioned forecasting centres (see also Section 2.3.3 above). 3.3.2 Statistical Description of Current
Design currents need to include the description of the associated vertical profiles. The simple approach of considering separately the current data at different depths can lead to overestimation of design conditions, as it does not account for the physical vertical coherence of the profiles. The presently accepted technique for statistical analysis of current profiles is the use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) suggested by Forristal and Cooper (1997) and successfully used by Jeans et al (2002) for the deepwater Faero-Shetland Channel. When the main part of the variance is concentrated into two or three modes, scatter diagrams and joint distributions could be analysed to produce design profiles. Gianfelici and Venturi (2005) reviewed different statistical applications of EOF, showing the possibilities for this technique (inverse FORM for extremes, neural network for the short term forecast, Markov chain for time simulation of profiles). Unfortunately, in West Africa (Meling et al, 2002), the high number of modes that is necessary to represent correctly the profiles necessitates the search for methods better suited to those conditions. Since currents are the combination of phenomena of
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various origins, studied separately, extrapolation to extreme conditions would benefit from the interpretation of the empirical modes in terms of those phenomena (different time scales). An example would be Neves and Guedes Soares (2004) for tidal components. More work should thus be devoted to the breakdown of currents into physically understandable components. The introduction of the current direction complicates the analyses and will necessitate extended studies. Another technique, closer to response based design (RBD) technique, is proposed by Lambrakos et al (2005) for classification of the current profile, using a simplified model of the structure of interest (here, for VIV riser response). The observation by ADCP of very strong subsurface jet currents (3m/s) in the Gulf of Mexico has been studied and discussed in Driver et al (2005). The authors suspected instrumental errors, these jets being observed only with the ADCP on board a vessel. In fact, another study that encountered the same observations (DiMarco et al, 2004) hypothesized that current inhomogeneities, both vertical and horizontal, can significantly affect the ADCP measurements of both horizontal and vertical current velocities. Such inhomogeneities could be caused by structural interference, internal waves, or motions attributed to ship/rig thrusters. Meanwhile, Jeans and Cooper (2005) recently studied the subsurface jets, measured by an ADCP, in West Africa (offshore Nigeria). After rejecting an EOF method, they proposed a simplified model of design profile, defined by a uniform profile of the entire water column, plus a jet defined by four parameters (amplitude, depth, direction and vertical extent of peak speed) on which they calculate statistics. 4. 4.1 SPECIAL TOPICS Rogue Waves
During the last three or four years, many research laboratories have been researching rogue or freak waves. The majority of their work has been discussed during two dedicated symposia: Rogue waves 2004 in Brest, France (http://www.ifremer.fr/webcom/stw2004/rw/index.html) and Aha Huliko'a Hawaiian Winter Workshop 2005, USA (http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/ TOC2005.html). 4.1.1 Definition of Rogue Waves
The definitions used for rogue or freak waves seem to vary widely. Especially in the shipbuilding industry and for some researchers, the reference to normal extremes is expected to follow a Rayleigh distribution according to the principle of linear combination of wave trains. However, the offshore industry has been using second-order models and thus significantly higher normal extremes, mainly for wave crests or intermediate water depths.
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Tomita and Kawamura (2000) suggested that in addition to the conventional index AI=Hmax/HS, a crest index CI=Cmax/HS should also be considered in the definition of freak waves. They called them genuine freak waves in the case both criteria satisfy AI>2 and CI>1.3. Haver (2004) provides an updated definition for rogue waves that expresses well the engineering problem, but that lacks practicality in that it does not allow one to decide whether a single given wave is a rogue wave or not: A freak wave event is an event (crest height, wave height, steepness or group of waves) that represent an outlier when seen in view of the population of events generated by a piecewise stationary and homogeneous second order model of the surface process. There is a consensus that more practical definitions based on thresholds of Hmax/HS or Cmax/HS are not adequate, but most researchers nevertheless use them. Havers definition should still be kept in mind as the ultimate reference. 4.1.2 Measurements of Rogue Waves
Measurements of many individual waves should receive more attention, since billions of them are necessary to identify true rogue waves. Therefore, the actual observations to work on, other than visual, are very rare. The New Year wave of the Draupner platform is an example of such a freak wave and the rarity of this observation explains the number of papers dedicated to it. There is at present an unfortunate compromise to be made between quality and quantity of those measurements, and little progress should be expected until either: 1) numerous measurements such as satellite ones with SAR instruments (Lehner, 2005) become more reliable, or 2) measurements with reliable sensors such as those from offshore platforms become more numerous. 4.1.3 Modelling of Rogue Waves
Numerical models are in progress, but they focus mainly on the analysis of non-linear interactions, mixing long and short-term interactions. The wave characteristics studied generally do not actually correspond to situations representative of the sea-state design conditions (pure wave packet, no energy exchanges with wind or wave breaking), i.e., situations closer to swell/wave pure propagation. Numerical and tank simulations do not correctly account for the random variations of the sea state instances, and the insights that they do provide on the mechanisms of extremes are limited to a small neighbourhood in space and time around the wave that is considered. Actual waves at a few wavelengths or periods away from the extreme no longer fit with the model ones because of the influence on the system of energy sources (directional focusing, wind shear) and sinks (breaking, etc.).
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To state it another way, those models may represent the conditions when an extreme wave occurs, but not why or how often those conditions can be gathered to give rise to an extreme wave. As for the theoretical basis, long time evolution of Benjamin-Feir instability, summarized by Yuen and Lake (1982), is now generalized to the appearance of an envelope solution and breather type solutions, see Dysthe and Trulsen (1999) and Henderson et al (1999), which are regarded as seeds of rogue/freak waves in the coherent sea. In particular, Osborne (2001) presented a theoretical basis of the NLS equation with a hyper-elliptic function (ratio of the functions) model as the rogue wave mode (see also Osborne et al, 2000). He showed the appearance of rogue waves from the Benjamin-Feir instability by use of the most basic method of the inverse scattering transform (IST) and connected them with randomness of the real ocean. This unstable mode gives the simplest limit of the Ma breather solution (Ma, 1979). Onorato et al (2001) presented a random wave numerical simulation of the TNLS (time NLS) equation using the JONSWAP spectra with the Ursell number (equivalent to BFI explained below) as a parameter. A corresponding study was reported by Onorato et al (2004a). They conducted extensive wave tank measurements in the large facility of MARINTEK with emphasis on the role of BFI parameter (0.2, 0.9, 1.2) using the JONSWAP spectra. The probability of high waves was found to increase with BFI parameter (it represents the ratio of wave steepness to spectral bandwidth). A numerical study of the focusing effect of the NLS equation was also reported by Slunyaev et al (2002). It is important to examine many types of linear and nonlinear waves and wave groups by means of exact nonlinear wavemaking techniques. This is not yet feasible. See, for example, Osborne and Petti (1994) for shallow water wave generation, Shemer et al (1998) for intermediate depth waves, and Shemer et al (2001) and Kit and Shemer (2002) for wave generation in a 2D wave tank. In the study of freak/rogue waves at sea, the random nature of the ocean surface is an important factor. Nevertheless, most papers do not take this random nature into account in their nonlinear theory. Pure numerical simulation studies can not elucidate the physical cause for the appearance of abnormal waves. In addition to the above mentioned international symposia devoted to this subject, Janssen (2003) presented a very illuminating paper on the occurrence of freak/rogue waves from the unified standpoint including theoretical models of four-wave interaction, numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo technique and stochastic properties in a real seaway. He refers to many research results obtained before the early 1980s, in particular nonlinear random theories proposed by Longuet-Higgins (1976) as a pioneering contribution. Using the Nonlinear Schroedinger equation as well as the Zakharov equation he accommodated coherent resonant and non-resonant interaction of sea waves with both homogeneous and inhomogeneous random processes having a high value of kurtosis. It is very interesting that he reached the frequency downshift at the end of a stochastic wave train that developed over a long period of time. More simplified work in this direction is found in the papers of Mori and Yasuda (2002a, 2002b); see also Mori and Janssen (2004). It now seems probable that wave breaking, even incipient wave breaking, plays an important role in the transformation of wave trains into rogue/freak waves through nonlinear and non-resonant interactions. It is noteworthy that for the theoretical basis for
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the conception of the rogue wave model cited above, one must go back to the important contributions of Alber (1978), Tracy and Chen (1988), Lake et al (1977) and/or Ma (1979). 4.1.4 Statistical Issues of Rogue Waves
A synthetic treatment to evaluate the probability of appearance of a freak wave was proposed by Lopatoukhin and Boukhanovsky (2005) using long-term extreme statistics. However, in the past the statistics of individual waves, based on numerical models, took into account only the short-term non-linearities. The introduction of more complex/exact non-linear numerical models complicates the statistical approach and is the subject of the work of several teams (Swan et al, 2004). The problems to solve are the initial conditions of the wave field, the duration of the simulation before analysis and the introduction of the effects of wind and current in the propagation. Few studies try to pursue the parameterisation of wave/crest height distributions by using more complex models of short-term interaction than the second order ones. Also, few are interested in a more complex description of the shape (steepness) or kinematics (crest particle velocities, e.g.) of extreme waves. 4.1.5 Consequences for Design and Prediction
The second symposium on rogue/freak waves was held in Brest in October 2004. Papers on theory, numerical simulation technique, observational evidences, and ship response were presented. Participants were informed about future and ongoing projects. Every country including EU, US and Japan proposed practical applications to evade rogue wave disasters with warning systems. Further scientific research was presented in the 2005 Hawaii meeting. Until now, forecasting an increased risk of extreme waves, i.e. giving rogue wave warnings so that the high waves no longer come unexpectedly, seems possible only for special conditions such as the Agulhas current. In other cases, empirical correlations between parameters describing the sea state and rogue wave occurrence do not lead to discriminating parameters; however, more global analysis of the sea state situation in space (Holt et al, 2004) or in time (Boukhanovsky et al, 2004) could perhaps bring some information. Recently, Lopatoukhin and Boukhanovsky (2005) proposed a synthetic treatment to evaluate the probability of appearance of a freak wave by using long-term extreme statistics. Parameters inferred from theoretical results, such as the Benjamin-Feir instability index supported by Janssen (2003), exhibit such a high volatility that prediction of their average values is of little practical use (Olagnon & Prevosto, 2005). Though there is no doubt that many extreme waves occur unexpectedly, there is much more uncertainty as to whether in the long term and taking into consideration currents and sea-floor effects they are more frequent than calculations would predict.
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Ten and Tomita (2005) and Waseda et al (2005) examined, both physically and numerically, the generation of freak/rogue waves in a wave tank. They actually created an isolated high wave in the full-nonlinear numerical wave tank and in the physical wave basin for use in the model test of a ship encountering the sudden appearance of a nonbreaking majestic wave. The specific part of the experiment using an elastic model was reported by Minami et al (2005). They conducted the measurements of the ship motion response and bending moment by a focusing wave combined with a regular wave train. A large whipping component in the longitudinal bending moment was found at the rear side of the freak-like wave. However, the maximum wave load did not occur at the point where the ships hull met it. Despite the numerous publications of recent years, no evidence could be found to support the occurrence of more high waves than expected, as far as probability levels below or up to design safety targets are concerned. IACS (International Association of Classification Societies) made a similar observation (Han, 2004), and there are thus no grounds on which to decide revisions of standards or regulations.
4.2
Marine Growth
Studies on marine growth around large scale floating ocean structures have been conducted in recent years. Kitazawa et al (2003) presented the effect of a very large floating structure on the marine ecosystem. Field measurements and numerical simulations were also conducted around the Mega-Float located in the Tokyo Bay (Fujino et al, 2003). Modelling the seawater enhancer effect was performed by Saito et al (2004) for Isahaya Bay as a target. Kitazawa and Ruardij (2005) developed a modelling of the competition for space and food among mussels under a coastal platform. Recently the seaweed bed ecosystem in a region in the vicinity of deep water discharge was investigated by Otsuka et al (2005). Several issues of marine environments such as ocean nourishment, ocean deep water, developing seaweed beds and marine growth are attracting the attention of the Environmental Committee, The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers. Quite a few of these topics, for instance ecology of mussels, can be found in biological journals. Among them are: Hammond and Griffith (2004), Kostylev and Erlandsson (2001), Frandsen and Dolmer (2002), Westerbom et al (2002) and Fitzhenry et al (2004). A future challenge will be to make use of this large amount of scientific knowledge for the maintenance of offshore structures and their environments.
4.3
Climate Change and/or Variability
Climate variability and change have been acknowledged in previous ISSC I.1 Committee reports, notably ISSC 2003. Global warming will generate rising global sea level, opportunities for increased shipping in the Arctic, and improved access to Arctic resources. It also may result in changes to storm patterns and tropical storm intensity.
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Due to spatial inhomogeneity in the distribution of impacts there will undoubtedly be local regions where many of these effects will exceed the global average, resulting in disproportionate changes to local environmental extremes that are of interest to marine design and operations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 by the joint actions of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). The First IPCC Assessment Report was completed in 1990 and its Second Assessment Report, Climate Change, in 1995. The Third Assessment Report (TAR), Climate Change was completed in 2001. The IPCC TAR (2001) projects an increase in globally averaged surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8C over the period 1990 to 2100. This is about two to ten times larger than the central value of observed warming over the 20th century, and the projected rate of warming is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years, based on paleoclimate data. For the periods 1990 to 2025 and 1990 to 2050, the projected increases are 0.4 to 1.1C and 0.8 to 2.6C, respectively. The increases projected by the IPCC TAR are greater than those in the Second Assessment Report (SAR), which were about 1.0 to 3.5C over the next 100 years. Mann et al (1998) published the seminal paleoclimate data analysis most frequently cited as the basis for the unprecedented character of the recent and projected rates of warming. However, Mann et al (1998) have been criticized by climate change sceptics for insufficient transparency of methods and failure to identify prominent features of record such as the little ice age and the mediaeval warm period. Moberg et al (2005) dispel much of this controversy by offering a completely independent analysis based on multi-proxy data and wavelet analysis methods. This more sophisticated analysis does identify prominent features such as the little ice age and the mediaeval warm period. As anticipated by Manns critics, Moberg et al do find more intrinsic variability than found by Mann et al, but significantly Moberg et al arrive at the same conclusion: that the warming during the twentieth century is unprecedented. Barnett et al (2001) found evidence in field data for global warming of the worlds oceans, specifically the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Bryden et al (2005) report field evidence for a slowing of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic with the potential for affecting the climate of northern Europe. And Emmanuel (2005b) reports evidence that the intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic has doubled over the past thirty years. Nowhere is the evidence for climate change more noticeable than in the Arctic. The impacts of global warming in the Arctic region are reported extensively in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004; ACIA, 2005) and discussed at greater length in Section 4.3.1 that follows. A notable change predicted by the ACIA is significant reductions in summer sea ice coverage on the Northern Sea Route, and to a lesser extent along the Northwest Passage, resulting in an opportunity for shipping on these routes expected to increase throughout the twenty-first century.
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The ISSC I.1 2003 report discussed evidence for spatially inhomogeneous long term trends in hindcast North Atlantic wave climates as well as correlations between wave statistics and major atmospheric oscillation modes such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Bromirski et al (2005) applied empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to the monthly wave energy anomalies in three period ranges from ten NOAA buoys (19812003) in the North Pacific and found that the second EOF mode reveals a distinct El Nio - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated spatial distribution of wave energy. From the dominant principal components of long-period wave energy they also found evidence for a trend of increasing storminess in the eastern North Pacific since 1980. Wang and Swail (2002) describe historical trends of North Atlantic wave extremes from 40-year hindcasts. Wang and Swail (2004a) and Wang et al (2004a) extend these studies to consider wave climate projections for the North Atlantic and North Pacific extending into the 21st centrury under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emmssion scenarios. They show that significant changes in the wave climate can be expected, that the rate of change is not constant throughout the centrury, and that in some regions the changes are quite dependent on the GHG forcing scenario. In Wang and Swail (2004b) further investigates the uncertainty associated with these findings. As indicated in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), substantial warming and increases in precipitation are projected for polar regions over the 21st century by almost all climate models. There are consequent concerns related to the impact of this climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic. Associated with these concerns will be changes to the atmosphere and the oceans that will propagate to other regions of the world. Climate change and variability in the prevailing ice (Section 4.4.1), sea level (Section 4.4.2) and storm frequency/severity (Section 4.4.3), including wind and waves as indicated below, may have profound impacts on shipping routes, maritime safety, ship structure designs, coastal management, near-shore engineering, sediment transport and beach erosion. 4.3.1 Ice
Recently, intensive investigations have been conducted on the global warming that has been observed over the last decades. The most profound study of Arctic warming and its worldwide consequences is given in ACIA (2004, 2005). The ACIA is a comprehensively researched, fully referenced, and independently reviewed evaluation of arctic climate change and its impacts for the region and for the world produced over a three year period by an international team of 300 scientists, other experts, and elders and other insightful indigenous residents of the Arctic region. The ACIA was developed in response to a mandate from the Arctic Council and in cooperation with the International Arctic Sciences Committee. The study analysed the present situation and predicted its development over the next 100 years based on projections of five separate and representative models. ACIA concluded that the Arctic climate is now changing seriously and rapidly, and that these changes have a strong
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impact on the global climate. Furthermore, the earth is projected to warm more than twice as much in the twenty-first century as it did during the twentieth century. ACIA produced the following evidence for steady Arctic warming: Over the past few decades, the annual average temperature has increased at almost twice the rate in the Arctic as in the rest of the world. (During the last fifty years, the average winter temperature in Alaska and Western Canada has increased by 3-4C.) During the last thirty years, the extent of the average annual sea ice coverage in the Arctic has decreased by about 8%, or nearly one million square kilometres. The thickness of sea-ice is also decreasing. The extent of summer sea ice has declined more dramatically, with a loss of 15-20% of the late summer ice coverage, and the melting trend is accelerating. Arctic glaciers are melting. For example, since 1979, the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet has decreased by 16%. Melting of glaciers is one of the factors contributing to global sea-level rise. The sea-level is rising; the global average sea level rose by about 8 centimetres in the past twenty years. Rising temperatures have caused permafrost to thaw in a number of locations.
These processes in the Arctic have significant effects on the global and regional climate. Melting of highly reflective Arctic snow and ice reveals darker land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the suns heat and further warming the planet. Increases in glacial melt and river runoff add more fresh water to the ocean, raising the global sea level and possibly slowing the ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles (see also Bryden et al, 2005), thereby affecting global and regional climate. Severe coastal erosion will be a growing problem as rising sea level and a reduction in sea ice allow higher waves and storm surges to reach the shore. Along some Arctic coastlines, thawing permafrost weakens coastal lands, adding to their vulnerability. The risk of flooding in coastal wetlands is projected to increase, with impacts on society and natural ecosystems. The Arctic also provides important natural sources to the rest of the world (oil, gas, fish) that will be affected by the climate change.
On the other hand, reduced sea ice is very likely to open new shipping routes, lengthen the period during which shipping is feasible, and increase marine access for transport and offshore development to the Arctics natural resources. National and international regulations focusing on marine safety and environmental protection will require revision to take these new conditions into consideration.
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All the evidence of climate conditions in the distant past points to human activity as the cause of the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that are associated with rising global temperatures. In the ACIA authors opinion, an acceleration of these trends is projected to occur during this century due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earths atmosphere.
Figure 3: Projected ice extent (5-model average for September) 1 The European Climate Forum symposium on key vulnerable regions and climate change (ECF, 2004) also investigated global warming issues. Among other questions, the problem of the decreasing thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice coverage was discussed.
ACIA (2004)
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Figure 4: Northern sea route and Northwest Passage2
Figure 5: Projected increase in navigation season on northern sea route
Johannessen et al (2004) studied the same problem by evaluating the changes in the Arctic climate as the Arctics response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forces, using predictions on a century-scale perspective. It was shown that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. However, the nature of Arctic warming in the last two decades was distinct from the early twentieth-century warming period. It was suggested strongly that the earlier warming had been an expression of natural internal climate-system variability, whereas the recent changes were a response to anthropogenic forces. The area of Arctic sea ice was furthermore observed to have decreased by 7.4% in the past quarter century, with record-low summer ice coverage in September 2002. A set of model predictions demonstrated the possibility of great reductions in the ice cover through the twenty-first century, including a predominantly sea-ice-free Arctic during the summer. In connection with global warming, the symposium on naval operations (ONR et al, 2001) focused on the necessity to prepare for navigation in an ice-diminished Arctic. The Arctic Marine Transport Workshop (Brigham, 2004) was also mainly devoted to global warming. Practically all participants (representatives of the Arctic region: Russia, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, etc.) discussed climate change effects on reduced ice thickness and extent in the Arctic. Rigor and Wallace (2004) examined variations in the age of Arctic sea-ice and extent of summer sea-ice with the help of a simple model that keeps track of the age of ice as it
ACIA (2004)
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moves about on the Arctic Ocean. They showed that the area coverage of thick multiyear ice decreased precipitously during 19891990 and has remained low since that time. Rothrock and Zhang (2005) presented various observations and model results that point to an Arctic sea ice cover that was extraordinarily thin in the 1990s. This thin ice cover was caused by a strengthened cyclonic circulation of wind and ice and by the unusual warmth of springtime air temperatures. Over the 52-year simulation from 1948 to 1999, it was shown that the ice volume decrease had a trend of 4% per decade. 4.3.2 Sea Level
An increase in the global average sea level is a direct consequence of a warming atmosphere. Two primary factors contribute to this rise: thermal expansion due to ocean warming and the melting of land-based ice. Thermal expansion is believed to be the major contributor to past sea level rise. Regional difference in sea level rise can be significant compared with the global average. These are driven by variations in thermal expansion rates, salinity, wind fields and ocean circulation; all of which can be influenced by climate change. In its third assessment report (IPCC, 2001) IPCC noted that analysis of tidal gauge data showed that the global average sea level rose by 1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr during the 20th century. No significant increase in the rate of rise was measured during the 20th century; however, compared with limited data available from the 19th century, some acceleration is evident. Recognising the important role the Arctic has in influencing the world climate, the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee called for an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) to be undertaken (Impacts of a Warming Arctic: ACIA, 2004). The ACIA reviewed the evidence for changes in the Arctic climate, and the potential global effects of such changes. The ACIA report noted that the global average sea level has risen by 10-20cm over the past 100 years, with an 8cm rise over the 20 year period 1984-2004. The report indicates that the rate of rise is increasing, with a projected sea level rise of between 10 and 90cm during this century. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA 2004, 2005) also reports on the observed and projected global sea level rise as a consequence of global warming and the resultant melting land-supported ice. In descending order of contribution to the projected global sea level rise are: Greenland, Alaska, Arctic Ocean islands, the Canadian arctic, and Iceland.
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Figure 6: Observed and projected global sea level rise The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global average sea level rise of from 10 to 90 centimetres during this century, with the rate of rise accelerating as the century progresses. However, recent studies suggest the potential of up to 1m by the end of the century. In the longer term (not clearly defined) the climate models predict the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, with a resulting sea-level rise of about 7m, but there remain differing views as to the adequacy with which the climate models account for some of the factors that affect climate change. Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Ships and Offshore Structures Changes in sea level have little potential to affect ship design directly. Secondary effects, such as changes in tidal range, harbour depths and offloading heights may need to be taken into account; however, while rises in sea level remain in the few tens of cm, little impact is expected. Water depth is an important parameter in the design of all forms of offshore installations (ABS RP 2A-WSD, 2000). Tidal variations, storm driven surges and settlement all have to be considered within the design process. Long term variations in water depth have the potential to influence the design of fixed jacket and concrete structures, and tension leg platforms. In designing a new structure, account should be taken of the predicted increase in sea level over the estimated lifetime of the installation (ISO 19901-1: 2005). Structures designed with lifetime in the region of 50 years have included an allowance for sea level rise. For existing installations, changes in the order of a few tens of cm over their remaining lifetime are unlikely to significantly influence a structures reliability level or its functionality.
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment 4.3.3 Storm Frequency/Severity
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Figure 7: Annually accumulated PDI for the western north Pacific and north Atlantic, compared to annually averaged SST (The PDI has been multiplied by a factor of 5.8 x 10-13 and the HadISST (with a constant offset) is averaged between 30S and 30N. Both quantities have been smoothed twice. This combined PDI has nearly doubled over the past 30 years.)
Emmanuel (2005b) indicates that there has been no perceptible change in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones over the past 30-40 years. However, the intensity of storms is linked to sea temperatures, and an increase of 0.5C in tropical sea surface temperatures can be correlated to an increase in maximum wind speeds of around 2-3%, which is too small to see in the databases thus far. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) also provide an indication of the limit on the maximum wind speeds that can be reached. Monetary losses caused by hurricanes are roughly proportional to the cube of the wind speed. Emmanuel defines a power dissipation index (PDI), which is the integral of the cube of the maximum wind speed of a cyclone over its lifetime. He shows that this is reasonably well correlated with SSTs in both the Atlantic and Pacific tropical oceans and also that the PDI value has doubled over the past 30 years. For extratropical areas the picture is complicated by spatial variations and coastal influences. Pirazzoli et al (2004) analysed up to 100 years of coastal wind and surge measurements in Brittany and found both increases and decreases in the frequency of stronger winds, depending on the locations that were analysed and the wind directions. Similarly, surge heights are strongly dependent on the frequency, direction, strength and
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fetch of the winds, and can be largely explained by a careful examination of the synoptic wind distribution and its variation over time. Wang et al (2004b) developed a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm to identify and track historical and projected future extratropical. Historical extratropical cyclones were identified for from the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed databases for the period 1958-2001. Projections of future extratropical cyclones were generated using the Canadian CGCM2 climate model under IS92a greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. They estimate that the number of strong winter and spring cyclones over the North Pacific, and strong autumn and winter cyclones in the North Atlantic, will increase significantly. They also predict significant shifts to the mean extratropical storm tracks. Through calibrated numerical models, Yamaguchi and Hatada (2003) examined wave conditions offshore Korea and found location-specific variations in the average monthly conditions but less pronounced spatial variability in the annual averages. Overall, the trends in the wave height data sets they examined were weak and, if anything, decreasing confirmation of previous work which has indicated that increases in one region tend to be offset by decreases in another. 4.4 Tsunamis
A preliminary assessment of the risk of tsunamis in a region can be obtained from atlas sources such as the World Map of Natural Catastrophes (Munchener Ruck, 1998) or NOAAs Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsu.shtml). For a given location, the frequency of earthquake events is generally very low and in particular the frequency of occurrence of a tsunami at a site is even lower, since only a very few earthquakes give rise to tsunamis. In comparison with earthquake data, the data on tsunamis are limited, in part because a global tsunami monitoring/forecasting system does not yet exist. In contrast to the rest of the world, the Pacific is well covered through the NOAA DART (Deep-ocean and Reporting of Tsunamis), Program (see Assessment http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/Dart/) operational monitoring system. Following the Aceh tsunami in 2004, initiatives to improve the situation have been accelerated, especially through UNESCO/IOC International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) (http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/), in particular for the Indian Ocean but also for other areas at risk such as the Mediterranean where extremely short response times are required in order to provide an adequate warning system. During the Twentieth Session of the ICG/ITSU-XX held in Vina del Mar, Chile, in October 2005, the ICG/ITSU was renamed the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/PTWS). The change was made to align its name with other tsunami warning and mitigation systems that are being newly established as governing bodies under the auspices of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC).
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At the 23rd Session of the IOC General Assembly in June 2005, the IOC adopted three resolutions that established the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS), the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions and the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connecting Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). For the majority of offshore structures, the environmental actions are dominated by extreme wind-waves and most structures are effectively in deep water with regard to tsunami wave physics, which are at most a few tens of centimetres in height. While tsunami waves do not generally govern the design of fixed offshore structures, their very long periods can result in substantial actions on moored floating structures in water shallower than 100 m. It is prudent to be aware of the potential impact of tsunamis on moored floating structures that form part of an offshore field development. Tsunami heights can radically increase due to shoaling and refraction, so special care should be taken at shallow water sites near complicated bathymetry that can lead to a caustic (focal point for wave energy) or near semi-enclosed features like bays. Coastal facilities are likely to be at the greatest risk due to the run-up of the tsunami and the potential for inundation of the facility and processing plant. Historical run-up data are available from NOAA Tsunami Database. Tsunamis approaching the coastline often scour the seabed, transporting large amounts of sediment shoreward and dumping it onshore, thereby increasing their destructiveness. It would be sensible for example to perform an inspection if a tsunami passes over a pipeline.
5. 5.1
DESIGN AND OPERATING ENVIRONMENT Design
Classification society rules for general ship design do not, in general, make explicit use of environmental wave data. However, for ships of unusual proportions or form, the class societies require or recommend some type of dynamic loads analysis that makes use of wave climate data. It is noted that some class societies offer an additional notation when dynamic loads analysis is applied to ships of conventional proportions or form. However, if an unrestricted service notation and/or spectral fatigue notation is desired, then the class societies insist that their prescribed climatology, typically Walden or BMT, be the basis of the dynamic loads analysis. In general the class societies will also accept other wave climatologies, but only if they are satisfied that the proposed alternative is at least as severe as their prescribed climatology. As the wave climatology prescribed by the class societies will secure an unrestricted notation, there is little incentive to determine a route and service specific wave climatology if it is anticipated that the actual encountered wave climatology will in fact be more severe. For this reason route and service specific wave climatologies are typically determined for dynamic loads design analysis only when the climatology is less
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severe than that prescribed for unrestricted service, and the ship owner is willing to accept a restricted service notation. By way of contrast, it is common practice to determine site specific wave climatologies for the design of offshore production structures and class society rules for such structures reflect that expectation. Unlike vessel/structure design, operations planning and operability analysis are typically not subject to class society review. It is accepted practice to make use of the best available season, route and/or site specific wind and wave climatology when engaging in operations planning and the associated operability analyses. As further discussed in Section 5.2, below, time series extending over as many years as possible (for the operational season of interest) are preferred in order to assess operational windows and the risks associated with year-to-year variability. 5.2 Metocean Data and the Design Environment
Good quality metocean products are fundamental inputs to the safe and efficient design and operation of ships and offshore structures. Failures to understand the metocean environment within which a structure will operate have resulted in both under and overdesigned facilities. However, continued refinement of the traditional metocean products, while important, addresses only part of the future engineering challenge. As the shipping industry and offshore oil & gas exploration and production industries continue to employ more sophisticated structures, and as they require a better understanding of their more traditional structural forms, the metocean products required within the design process continue to evolve. New loading scenarios continue to be identified, each of which needs to be addressed in design. In moving to increasingly deep water and harsh environments using ship shaped production platforms, the offshore oil and gas industry has had to improve its understanding of a range of issues including bow impact and greenwater loading, the response of floating systems under varying wave climates (in particular swell waves and wave spectra) and deepwater current loading of moorings, risers and spars. Both the shipping and the offshore oil and gas exploration and production industries continue to strive to understand the extent to which freak or rogue waves need to be addressed in design and within operational limits. The traditional approach of applying generic safety factors within a working stress design (WSD) philosophy limits the ability of the designer to identify solutions that best address the specific requirements. The load and resistance factor design formats (LRFD) such as API 1st Edition LRFD Recommended Practice for the Design of Fixed Jacket Structures, offers the designer the opportunity to deliver structures better suited to the specific application. However, if these types of standards are to be used to their full, access to good quality long term metocean databases is essential both for the calibration of the standards and their use.
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In the past, the design engineer required access to a range of predefined, well-established metocean parameters. The metocean professional could provide these parameters with little or no knowledge of the structural form to which they were to be applied. As structures become more dynamic, new loading modes identified and the desire to continue to refine knowledge of the performance of offshore structures and ships remains, a greater integration will be required between the metocean and design engineering disciplines. In their 2003 publication, Olagnon and Quiniou-Ramus reviewed progress and gaps in the specification of metocean conditions for design purposes. While considerable progress had been made in specifying metocean design conditions, the authors identify gaps in the estimation of long term distributions of metocean parameters; in the validation and calibration of metocean datasets (in particular from hindcast and satellite source); and the estimation of the spectra characteristics in combined sea-states. Modelling the swell component was noted to be a particular problem area. Other gaps included adequately modelling seasonal trends, non-Gaussian processes and multivariate phenomena in the development of time histories of sea states. Rogue or freak waves were identified as an area requiring further research. On the topic of winds and currents, windspeed during squalls was recognised as requiring further data analysis, and current profiles over depth and at high frequency (down to less than a minute) required further work. Finally, the authors noted the need to improve joint probability models, in particular through the collection and analysis of measured data to supplement and calibrate hindcast models. 5.2.1 Load Factors Estimation
The load factor is a mechanism used within LRFD based design codes to ensure that an offshore installation is able to withstand a load well in excess of the design load. Typically, the design load will be the 100-year loading event; however, the installation will normally be required to survive loads in excess of the 10,000-year load. For wave load dominated structures (e.g., fixed jacket structures) the major consideration in determining the load factor is the variation of wave height and period with return period. For other forms of structure (e.g., FPSOs or highly dynamic fixed structures) the more complicated relationship between wave height and structural loads requires a combined metocean/structure approach to determining load factors. However, in all cases metocean data and their analysis forms a key input to load factor derivation. Design codes such as APIs 1st Edition LRFD (1993) or ISO 19902 (2004) contain generic load factors calibrated on the basis of basin scale metocean conditions. In practice, to ensure that the load factors deliver adequate levels of reliability anywhere within the basin, they are calibrated on the basis of the most onerous of environmental conditions in the region. Hence, for many locations, use of generic load factors will deliver over-designed structures. In order to deliver optimised designs, load factors should be calculated on the basis of the local metocean consideration and due account taken of the structural form under consideration.
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Rutten et al (2004) describe a methodology for deriving site-specific load factors for use in fixed structure design. The methodology involves using extreme value analysis to determine four extreme value characteristics (shape and scale parameters, the threshold and number of values in the dataset). These are used to estimate uncertainties associated with the extreme values, and as input to a model (based on API LRFD approach) for deriving site specific load factors. The analysis focused on wave loads only. Load factors were derived for three regions: the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the West African Coast using a mix of hindcast and measured wave data. Differences in load factors were reported dependant on location and modelling approach adopted. The explicit inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme value analysis results in an increase in load factor of between 8% and 30%, depending on the methodology adopted. With the imminent issue of ISO 19902 (due 2006), the challenge for the metocean community will be to deliver the databases and the analysis techniques necessary to allow the 100 year load to be derived and site-specific load factors established. 5.2.2 Combined metocean parameters
A key input to structural reliability analysis and the determination of the 100-year load is a description of the combined, long-term metocean conditions to which an installation is expected to be exposed. Long-term records of simultaneously measured wind, wave and current profiles are limited. While wind and wave data are frequently recorded, current data tend to be recorded for short campaigns. Joint models have been produced that have, to a limited extent, addressed direction and combined sea issues. Bitner-Gregersen (2005) presented a joint omni-directional model for combined seas that incorporates the possibility of environmental parameters approaching from different directions. Comparisons are presented with measured data recorded on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and West Shetland region. Difficulties in providing wind sea and swell distributions were noted in the paper. It is important to establish the directionality associated with metocean parameters, in particular with respect to the design of floating installations and their mooring and riser systems. Whereas in fixed structures the directionality associated with the values of independent metocean extremes is sufficient for design; for floating systems directionality associated with combined metocean parameters and the vessel orientation are also required to drive reliability and fatigue assessment models. Francois et al (2004) describe a methodology for establishing a directionally sensitive response magnitude at a predetermined return period. Combinations of directions and other relevant parameters (e.g., wave period) are scanned over limited ranges in order to identify the maximum response. The methodology uses an inverse first order reliability (I-FORM) approach to define the multi-parameter contours from which the maximum response can be determined. Dong and Xu (2004) apply a Poisson trivariate Gumbel extreme value distribution (PTGEVD) to the problem of concurrent significant wave height, wind speed and current
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velocity distribution related to typhoon events. Part of the objective is to demonstrate the cost savings resulting from the use of joint probability data in offshore structural design. Comparison with a 34 year hindcast dataset from South China shows the benefits of using the PTGEVD in terms of reduced design criteria associated with the 100-year load. Kleiven and Haver (2004) consider different approaches to compensating for the failure of approaches based on contour lines to adequately account for short term variability in the metocean data. The authors recommend the use of correction factors and percentile values (as opposed to median values) in preference to inflation of the contour lines, the latter being structure dependent. The authors note that the correction factors and percentile values increase as the load/response process becomes increasingly non-linear, and increase as the failure probability decreases. 5.2.3 Design for Freak or Rogue Waves
The nature and frequencies of occurrence of freak or rogue waves remains a topic of active research (see Rogue Wave Workshop, 2004: http://www.ifremer.fr/webcom/stw2004/rw). For fixed structures, the design challenge is associated with potential loss of airgap, or high loads on columns or steep fronted structures. For floating structures, the response of the installation or vessel complicates the analysis and the identification of the potential failure modes. In both cases metocean data are key to understanding the frequency and nature of the potential loading event. However, for certain types of loading event, there is a need to establish the combined metocean loading and structural response that defines the freak event (and associated metocean conditions). Following the development of the knowledge concerning abnormal waves and the various demands for ships to be designed for those extreme situations, work has been directed towards verifying whether the ship response codes could be used for those predictions. Fonseca et al (2001) developed an approach to determine the ship response to a wave record including one abnormal wave and applied it to a containership, which was later analysed subject to many time series records (Fonseca et al 2005). This approach was verified with model tests made on a floating FPSO, verifying that very good agreement was obtained for motions (Clauss et al, 2004) and bending moments (Guedes Soares et al, 2004c). In view of these good results Fonseca et al (2005) applied their analysis method to the FPSO and considered several measured time series having abnormal waves. The comparison of these results with the Classification Society requirements has shown that in the case of the ship the abnormal waves induce much higher bending moments, but for the FPSO the load effects induced by the abnormal waves are lower than the rule requirements (Guedes Soares et al, 2004c). This shows that still further work needs to be done and also that in some cases the abnormal waves are not as destructive as they were expected to be.
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Haver et al (2004) attempt to establish what impact the current understanding of freak waves would have on the design of offshore structures. The paper proposes probabilistic models for the frequency of occurrence of freak waves in a given sea state, and the conditional probability of the crest height amplification, given a freak wave occurrence. The results of sensitivity analysis suggest that there would be little impact in extreme crest heights currently used in design. To what extent rogue or freak waves need to be considered explicitly within the design environment remains to be established. While for certain loading events the issue can be dealt with through further understanding of the detailed metocean environment (e.g., extreme crest height or wave steepness), for other type of loading (e.g., the event that could lead to the capsize of a vessel) a combined metocean/response analysis is required. 5.2.4 Designing for Green Water and Wave Impact
Operational experience over the past two decades has shown the importance of considering green water loading and wave impact effects (predominately at the bow) in the design of FPSOs. While both phenomena are relevant to ship design, the inability of FPSOs to avoid severe weather conditions, and the location of production equipment on FPSO decks, has focused attention on this form of vessel. Estimating the probability of freeboard exceedance and its associated greenwater loading and bow impact loads requires an understanding both of the metocean conditions and how the structure will respond in a given wave field. The relative motion between the vessel and the waves is an important parameter in determining the level of freeboard exceedance the installation will experience. Wave steepness and bow shape are key parameters in estimating bow impact loads (Buchner & Voogts, 2004). Guedes Soares (2004) compares wave height prediction models relevant to estimating freeboard exceedance levels on FPSOs. Two North Sea datasets are used to assess the adequacy of various models in predicting wave heights, crest heights and wave group. In general, good agreement was found between the models predictions and measured data; however, the models poor performance in a number of sea states suggested the output from such models needs to be used with care. All the models performed poorly where a sea state contained an abnormal wave. Model testing in wave flumes continues to represent an important means of identifying the types of the loads an offshore installation is likely to experience in a range of seastates. Clauss and Schmittner (2005) describe a method for the producing wave sequences with pre-determined characteristics for use in a deterministic analysis of wave/structure interactions. 5.3 Operations
Marine operations are usually designed for intermediate term metocean conditions, in contrast to ships and offshore structures with all-year continuous service that are
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designed to withstand long-term metocean extremes. Although some structural components can be exposed to their most extreme life time loads or accumulate a significant portion of their lifetime fatigue damage during transport to site and installation, such structural components are normally designed to withstand intermediate term metocean conditions. This will not increase the failure probability since such operations will take place only during favourable metocean conditions. Although the critical structural components could withstand long term extreme metocean conditions, there would be other factors that would limit such operations, such as the operability of installation vessels, service vessels, etc. In a similar manner many marine logistics and marine operations will take place only during favourable metocean conditions. The main reason for accepting design of operations for met-ocean conditions that are less severe than the long-term extremes is the possibility of suspending operations until favourable weather windows occur. During severe storms ships will slow down, be rerouted or even suspend the voyage to avoid severe damages. Drilling platforms will suspend drilling operations and enter into survival draft, while marine operations are put on hold. Marine operations that are planned for a favourable season of the year have design advantages over those exposed to year-round extremes. The degree of relaxation in design criteria of marine operations will also depend on the duration of the weather window required for successful completion of the operation. When the length of the weather window is shorter than the length of reliable weather forecasts, the design criteria will have to reflect that. Operations that require weather windows of duration longer than the length of reliable weather forecasts will typically be designed for medium term extremes. NORSOK J-003 requires that marine operations in excess of 72 hours shall be designed for 1-year extremes where seasonal extremes may be applied. For operations of less than 72 hour duration, operations can be commenced when the weather forecast provides certainty that the presupposed met-ocean criteria will not be exceeded. Optimization of a proposed operation may be accomplished using a risk / reward type evaluation of the costs of increasing operational capability, and hence the thresholds determining the size of the weather window, compared with the value of increased system availability, surety of completion, and reduced objective risk associated with favourably sized weather windows. Availability of met-ocean data is thus of vital importance for both design and planning of marine operations. The ability to obtain predefined weather windows requires data that span a considerable length of time. Deriving statistics on weather windows also requires continuous data series. In some areas offshore activities have been going on for decades. In such areas observed data supplemented by data from numerical models serve as a database for deriving extremes as well as statistics on the occurrence of weather windows. For other locations data produced by numerical atmospheric and wave models form a useful data source, although data series generated by numerical models tend to be smoother than observed data. Statistics of weather windows from numerical data therefore tend to include longer durations than weather windows derived from observed data.
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Availability and reliability of real time weather forecasting to predict weather windows is an important component of proper planning for safe and successful execution of marine operations. 5.3.1 Real-Time Forecast
Real-time forecasts of met-ocean parameters are vital for successful execution of marine operations. Traditionally weather forecasting has focused on meteorological parameters with wind being an important factor for activities at sea such as ship traffic and fisheries. The introduction of numerical wave models into forecast services has improved the value of weather forecasts significantly, in particular for operations related to offshore activities. At present the models WAM (Monbaliu et al, 2000) and WW3 (Tolman, 2002) are wave models frequently used by meteorological offices, supplemented by the model SWAN (Booij et al, 1999) for modelling in coastal zones. Satellite data are also becoming a reliable source of wave data and are presently used for calibration of numerical wave models, particularly in areas where observed data are not available. In addition, satellite data are becoming an increasingly important source of input data to operational atmospheric models (Magnusson, 2003). Weather and wave forecasts are becoming increasingly reliable, and forecasts up to 10 days are available globally. Shipboard tools that link weather forecast to vessel response characteristics are also currently available and in use for assisting in routing and operations during heavy weather (Payer & Rathje, 2004). The phenomenon frequently referred to as freak waves or rogue waves has been studied extensively after the New Year wave recorded at the Draupner platform in the North Sea on 1 January 1995 (Haver & Andersen, 2000). Haver discusses whether this type of waves is a rare manifestation of a typical population or a typical manifestation of rare population, but he does not reach a conclusion. A rogue wave presents a threat to most types of operations. It is speculated that several ship accidents have been caused by such waves. It is less sure to what extent rogue waves may affect design loads for offshore structures. Means of observing rogue waves (including use of remote sensing), the possibility of forecasting their probability, and functional warning criteria have been addressed by the MAXWAVE project funded under the European Unions Framework Programme 5. In the course of this project, considerable progress has been made toward understanding this phenomenon. As a result of MAXWAVE, sea state is now a mandatory parameter in Marine Safety Information (MSI) in the World Meteorological Organizations (WMOs) Manual of
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Marine Meteorological Services (MMMS). Presently the risk of abnormal waves is included in a list of potential criteria for MSI warnings. Mto-France (Savina et al, 2003) implemented a warning system in 2003. Their experience will be communicated to WMO with the aim of including warning of abnormal waves in future revisions of MMMS. 5.3.2 Planning
Length of weather windows for operations at seas vary with the type of operation. Most require met-ocean parameters to stay below certain limits for a minimum of time in order to be executed. Minimum duration and maximum parameter values define the weather window for such operations. Fouques et al (2003) describes a method for estimating frequency of weather windows defined by several metocean variables as a function of duration. Examples of results are given in the paper for data from Statfjord. Operations are often composed of several sequences, each having its specific requirements. Furthermore, it is normally not the met-ocean parameter that is the real limitation of an operation sequence but rather, for example, the motion or acceleration of the crane tip of the installation vessel during a lifting operation or heave motion of a drilling vessel during drilling and completions of wells. For such operations, estimating the probability of obtaining an operational window during a specific season is a rather complex task. Often vessel response limits are back-calculated to corresponding met-ocean parameters and these are being used to estimate statistics of weather windows from weather databases. When vessel responses are the real limitation, wave periods become as important as wave heights, especially the swell component of the wave. In such cases the definition of weather window in terms of met-ocean parameters can be quite complex. The way forward can then be to transform the wave data into vessel response data and to use the resulting vessel response time series to derive statistics of operational windows. It is common knowledge that there can be significant year-to-year variability in the weather intensity. In the same way there is a great variability in the year-to-year wave climate, and the statistics of weather windows will differ in the same way. In order to capture this variability, long data-series are required, preferably several decades. Databases with observed wave data from several decades exist for only a few locations. Wave data from numerical models therefore form a valuable supplement to observed data. A global offshore database, WorldWaves, consisting mainly of data from numerical-model-generated data is described in (Barstow et al, 2003). Statistics on weather window and sea state persistence are valuable for evaluating the probability of success for a marine operation. However, the key questions asked by an operation manager during planning of marine operation are:
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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment What is the expected weather downtime during execution of the operation? What is the confidence that the operation can be completed within the schedule period/season? How will a change in operation schedule influence the estimated weather downtime? Are there bottlenecks in the planned operation that by simple means can be removed and thus significantly reduce the probability of weather downtime?
Software packages that can produce reliable answers to these questions, even for rather complex marine operations, are available today and are frequently used for this purpose. 5.3.3 Parametric Roll
The phenomenon of parametrically excited roll motion has been known to naval architects for almost a half century (Paulling & Rosenberg, 1959; Paulling 1961). It is caused by periodic changes of transverse stability in waves, resulting from a decrease in stability when the ship is on the wave crest and an increase in the wave trough. Without warning, parametric roll can build within a few cycles to roll amplitudes in excess of 30 to 40 degrees (Akiyama et al, 2000). Parametric roll is an auto-excited response arising from a dynamic instability. Once initiated, it does not require direct forcing in the roll mode. The initiating perturbation often arises from asymmetric wave interaction with the large overhanging vessel shape of the bow flare and/or stern flare areas occurring in head or following seas when a ship is travelling more or less perpendicular to the wave front (Belenky & Sevastianov, 2003; Shin et al, 2004). Modern containerships are particularly susceptible to severe parametric roll because the requirement for a low resistance hull form with large deck area for container stowage frequently results in significant bow flare. In addition to hull structural design and personnel safety issues, operators of modern containerships are concerned about the parametric roll because of its sudden onset and the very real threat to the security and integrity of deck stowed containers. This has been dramatically demonstrated by two incidents involving containerships operating in the North Pacific, a post-Panamax C11 containership in October 1998 (France et al, 2003) and a separate similar incident in November 1999 (Akiyama et al, 2000). Parametric rolling may be regarded as a subharmonic resonance. Extreme rolling motions can result when the encountered wave period is one-half the vessels natural rolling period (France et al, 2003). Roll damping, which is typically quite low, establishes a threshold for encountered wave steepness above which parametric roll behaves as an auto-excited system, rapidly accumulating roll momentum until dynamic equilibrium is achieved at large roll amplitudes or the process is interrupted by a significant change in heading and/or speed (ABS Surveyor, 2004; Shin et al 2004). Several codes are available to make this type of prediction, but improvements are still
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ongoing, as for example in Bulian et al (2004), Umeda et al (2004) and Ribeiro e Silva et al (2005), demonstrating that the problem is ongoing. In defence of the numerous and costly cargo claims arising from these incidents, extensive investigations were undertaken by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and various learned maritime societies, including classification societies, to determine whether head-sea parametric rolling could have been the cause of the extreme motions of these vessels. This program of research included time-domain simulation using nonlinear large amplitude motion programs FREDYN and LAMP (Large Amplitude Motion Program), developed respectively by the Maritime Institute of the Netherlands (MARIN) and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in Annapolis, Maryland, USA. Figure 8 below shows the roll amplitudes of a series 60 hull in head seas, obtained using the nonlinear motion prediction program LAMP. Near the wave frequency 0.55 rad/sec, a large roll amplitude was observed. In the realm of linear theory, this finite roll amplitude is not observed in head waves (Akiyama et al, 2000).
Figure 8: Roll amplitudes of series 60 hull in head seas Leading ship motion researchers at American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) have developed new design criteria to address parametric roll, particularly on large containerships. The criteria are contained in the ABS Guide for the Assessment of Parametric Roll Resonance in the Design of Container Carriers (2004). ABS offers an optional class notation for measures taken against parametric roll. Germanischer Lloyd has also introduced the Shipboard Routing Assistance (SRA) system, which describes and furnishes support to the shipmaster or officer for making decisions in complex environmental situations. It is based on selected seaway parameters that indicate the possibility of dangerous parametric roll motions (Payer & Rathje, 2004). Det Norske Veritas also directed their efforts to
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assist watch keepers by producing an on-board wave radar and motion sensor system that continuously analyses the wave formations being encountered. Computer modelling was also carried out using nonlinear, time domain programs developed by the Maritime Institute of the Netherlands (MARIN) and by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in Annapolis, Maryland, USA. Belenky et al (2003) discuss some of the probabilistic aspects of numerical simulation of parametric roll in irregular waves and show that, in order to obtain reliable results, one realization is not enough, and that distribution of the parametric roll response might be different from Gaussian. Owners are now considering many ways to prevent or mitigate this unstable roll. One solution to avoid or reduce parametric roll, often used by naval ships and offshore supply vessels, is to fit the vessel with anti-roll tanks. Studies (Lin & Weems, 2002; Shin et al, 2003; Shin et al, 2004) considered a container ship fitted with a passive, U-tube antirolling tank. A numerical study has shown that this might be a very effective technology for avoiding the consequences of parametric resonance. Other options also exist to minimize the effects of parametric roll. Some owners elect to install active fin stabilizers, similar to those installed on naval ships and cruise ships (Akiyama et al, 2000). LAMP can be used to predict parametric roll that occurs only for a specific range of wave and operating conditions (cargo loading, metacentric height, speed, heading, wave height and period). Numerical simulation can be used as a primary analysis tool in the design of such systems (SLF 47/6/6-IMO, 2004). However, as the ABS guide for assessing parametric roll resonance (2004) points out, the phenomenon arises when a combination of environmental, operational and design parameters occurs. During the Boxship Conference in 2003, maritime industries, marine institutions and classification societies all accepted the need to incorporate into the ship design process the concern with parametric roll, in order to combat this dangerous phenomenon. They also feel that further studies are required. Two avenues of response to the challenge of parametric roll are apparent. The first is to improve the design of new vessels to reduce their susceptibility to parametric roll. The ABS guide is a useful aid to that process. The second is to provide vessel officers with operational guidance in the form of general and vessel-specific advice. This advice may be in the form of manuals and perhaps real-time advisory systems making use of on-board instrumented heavy-weather damage avoidance systems, on-board surveillance of the approaching incident sea, and perhaps broadcast advisories regarding sea condition parameters. Elements of this operational response based approach are described in Payer and Rathje (2004). From the perspective of this committee, the outstanding challenge is to better understand and define those sea state parameters that pose a parametric roll hazard to a particular vessel. Candidate local wave field properties include encountered wave frequency, steepness, encountered wave direction, and coherence of wave groups.
ISSC Committee I.1: Environment 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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The foremost development during the term of this Committee is the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), 2004, 2005. The ACIA projects that the retreating Arctic ice will open a seasonally navigable Northern Sea Route with the duration of the navigable season increasing throughout the twenty-first century. Melting land ice in Greenland and elsewhere will result in a rising global sea level throughout this century. Supporting the ACIA in background are several significant scientific papers that have addressed outstanding criticisms of the case for global warming and climate change. Other climate change impacts of interest and concern to the marine community include evidence for more intense tropical storm activity, slowing of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, and spatially nonhomogeneous trends affecting environmental processes of interest to design, such as wind, sea and current. The mounting evidence for climate change suggests that the presumption of stationary climate that typically is applied (consciously or unconsciously) to the estimation of design environmental extremes should be reviewed for each project. Depending on the planned service life of a project, in some instances it may be appropriate to explicitly include consideration of trends when estimating selected design environmental extremes. Naval architects, offshore engineers and operations planners are reminded and cautioned that, in general, actual realizations of environment are subject to considerable uncertainty when compared with our characterizations. This is true even under the presumption of stationary climate. Climate change only exacerbates the uncertainties associated with our characterizations of environmental factors that contribute to design and operations. During the term of this Committee there has been noteworthy progress on a number of topics of concern to its mandate. 6.1 Advances
There have been improvements to the sensing of wind from satellites, including improved coverage and higher resolution Ku-band scatterometers, though these are greatly affected by rain. There has been progress integrating near real-time inputs from satellite sensed winds into numerical weather prediction programs. ISO 19901-1 was published in 2005 and this includes metocean information (including wind extremes) for various regions of the world. There is as of yet little new to report on the spatial coherence of wind, especially in squall events, but in 2006 the West Africa Gust (WAG) JIP is scheduled to begin measuring field data suitable for addressing this question. It is hoped that the next ISSC I.1, Environment Committee will be able to report new insight into questions of wind coherence and gust structure. Research into analytical descriptions of nonlinear sea waves remains active with progress in weakly nonlinear models, second order solutions and direct numerical
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simulations. These researches hold promise to advance our understanding of asymmetries associated with steep and extreme waves, the occurrence and disappearance of rogue waves, wave generation and wave breaking. Considerable progress has been made in shallow water wave environments. SWAN has been improved such that it is now suitable for application to large areas. Various researchers have reported improved ability to model irregular multidirectional wave fields in the nearshore zone and advances have been made in the ability to characterize the composite transfer function of incident directional spectrum refracting over a region of strongly varying bathymetry. Improved modelling abilities have been reported for shoaling, breaking and wave run-up, and it is expected that the LoWish project will eventually provide guidance to help define maximum wave heights in shallow water. While progress has been made in remote sensing and numerical modelling of currents on scales of interest to the scientific community studying global circulation and heat transport less progress has been made at the smaller spatial and temporal scales of interest to those responsible for the design of offshore marine structures. 6.2 Recommendations
The research community is encouraged to pursue the development of multi-source wave climatologies, with the ultimate goal of providing improved design values. In furtherance of this objective, it is suggested that the following steps be undertaken: The construction of global integrated long-term distributions from the statistics of each source; Individual sample re-estimation from multiple sources of information followed by statistics of those re-estimated values.
As regards the problem of parametric roll, the research community is encouraged to work to identify those wave field parameters that pose a parametric roll hazard to any particular specified vessel, with the hope that these parameters might be eventually incorporated into on-board real-time warning or advisory systems. Candidate local wave field properties include encountered wave frequency, steepness, encountered wave direction, and coherence of wave groups. REFERENCES ABS Surveyor. (2004). Demystifying parametric roll. , ABS Surveyor, Fall 2004, 26-29. ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment). (2004). Highlights, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment). (2005). Eighteen chapter scientific report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
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16th INTERNATIONAL SHIP AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES CONGRESS 20-25 AUGUST 2006 SOUTHAMPTON, UK VOLUME 1

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment CONTENTS 1. 2.

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

SOURCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA Wind

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10 2.1.2.3 High resolution Wind Measurements

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

24 2.4.4 Uncertainties in Ice Data

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

MODELLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENA Analytical, Numerical and Experimental Descriptions of Wind

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

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Climate Change and/or Variability

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

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Figure 4: Northern sea route and Northwest Passage2

Figure 5: Projected increase in navigation season on northern sea route

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment 4.3.3 Storm Frequency/Severity

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

DESIGN AND OPERATING ENVIRONMENT Design

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ISSC Committee I.1: Environment

ISSC Committee I.1: Environment