Oil Monitor 300312

Oil monitor
In this edition
IN THIS EDITION DATA WATCH PUBLISHED RESEARCH OIL MARKET FLOOR FROM THE TRADING FLO OR BIGGEST MOVERS NEWS ROUNDUP OILEX LTD (OEX LN) TOWER RESOURCES (TRP LN) (MTA LN) MATRA PETROLEUM BOWLEVEN (BLVN LN) SALAMANDER ENERGY (SMDR LN) ITHACA ENERGY IN (IAE LN) (NPE LN) NAUTICAL PETROLEUM VOLGA GAS (VGAS LN) AFREN (AFR LN) FAROE PETROLEUM (FPM LN) (JKX LN) JKX OIL & GAS PARKMEAD GROUP (PMG LN) SERICA ENERGY PLC (SQZ LN) ENEGI OIL PLC (ENEG LN) COVERAGE STOCKS UNDER COVERAGE 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 Crude Futures BFO ($/bbl) WTI ($/bbl) 116.9 107.1 -1.2 (-1.0%) -1.7 (-1.6%)
30 March 2012
Commodities
Commodity Crude BFO ($/bbl) WTI ($/bbl) 123.5 105.4 -1.9 (-1.5%) -2.2 (-2.1%) Close Change Chart
130 120 110 100 90 WTI BFO

3 Month Performance ($/bbl)
130 120 110 100 90 WTI

rd
BFO
Forward Curve (33 month) Gas Henry ($/mcf) NBP (p/therm) 2.01 61.6 -0.17 (-7.8%) 8.5 (15.9%)
20 15 10 5 NBP Henry Hub

Gas price ($/mm btu)
Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies
Currency
Currency USD/GBP ($/) Close 1.601 1d 1m 3m Change 0.014 0.010 0.047 3 Month Performance
Data watch
Indices
Index FTSE All share O&G Dow S&P O&G EuroStoxx O&G Close 3,002 8,420 13,146 1,403 506 263 343 Change -39.6 -215.2 99.7 10.5 -6.5 -3.0 -8.4 YEN/USD (/$) 82.2 USD/EUR ($/) 1.335
1.62 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25
1d 1m 3m
0.008 0.003 0.039
1d 1m 3m
-0.2 1.0 5.2
84 82 80 78 76
Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies
Dr Zac Phillips +44 203 463 5039 zac.phillips@fox-davies.com
Neeraj Paliwal +44 203 463 5000 neeraj.paliwal@fox-davies.com
Alex Ogbechie +44 203 463 5040 alex.ogbechie@fox-davies.com
Oil Monitor
30 March 2012
Crude prices (above) have been falling entire week reacting to bearish news flow from across the globe, and the WTI / BFO spread has again widened.
WTI / BFO Spread ($/bbl)
Published Research
5 0
Oil Market
Crude oil
US crude inventories (see below) increased by record 7.1mm bbl to 353.4mm bbl. This week build was primarily lead by 1.0mm bb/d increase (w-o-w) in crude imports to 9.3mm bbl/d. Crude inventories are now at a seven month high and are also in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year
Crude Inventories (m bbl)
-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Jul 09 Jan 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Sep 11 Apr 12 Oct 12
Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data
400 375 353,390 350 325 300 275 250 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies
In general, the oil markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical events. Earlier in the week prices fell on the Italys Prime Minister warning that Spain debt problems could reignite the European debt crisis. The prospect of a release of strategic oil reserves from the United States and some European nations like UK, France also pressured oil. US government official has confirmed that they are considering a reserve release but no decisions had been made. Speculation over strategic oil reserves is likely to keep crude prices range bound.
Distillates, Gasoline & Refinery Charge oil

Distillate inventories fell by 0.7mm bbl (see below), and continue to remain in the middle of the 5-year observed range.
Distillates Inventories (m bbl)
Oil Price ($/bbl)
150
125
180
100
160
75
140
135,866
50 Jul 09
Jan 10
Aug 10 WTI
Feb 11
Sep 11 BFO
Apr 12 OPEC
Oct 12
120
Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data
100 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data
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Oil Monitor
Gasoline inventories declined by 3.5mm bbl partially due to increased seasonal demand and decline in imports. However the structural demand continues to remain week, as gasoline supply over the last four weeks is down by 6.1% y-o-y.
Gasoline Inventories (m bbl)
30 March 2012
From the trading Floor

Biggest movers
Biggest Movers
-75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
245 235 225 215 205 195 185 175 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
223,370
Odin Energy Ltd Greenvale Mining Nl Central Petroleum Ltd Gujarat Natural Resources Maverick Drilling & Meo Australia Ltd Empire Energy Group Ltd Ophir Energy Plc Grand Gulf Energy Ltd Oil Basins Ltd Europa Oil & Gas Holdings Blue Energy Ltd Capital Oil Ab Triangle Energy Global Ltd Oil & Gas Exploration & -12.5% -13.0% -14.3% -15.0% -15.8% -16.2% -16.7% -16.7% -18.2% -33.3%
50.0% 40.2% 32.9% 31.8% 29.5% 28.8% 28.6% 25.1% 25.0% 20.0%
Refinery utilization stood at 84.5%, up 230 bps from the previous week.
Refinery Charge (m bpd)
17 16 15 14 13
Roxi Petroleum Plc Syngas Ltd Mako Energy Ltd
14,635
Globe Exploration Lp Kairiki Energy Ltd
Source:
12 11 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

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Oil Monitor
30 March 2012
Matra Petroleum
Momentum Building
News Roundup
Oilex Ltd
CambayCambay - 76H Well Operations Update
3 m Performance
(MTA LN)
Matras results this week have continued to underline the Company's progress towards unlocking the value within these difficult reservoirs. Attention will now shift towards development, and the expansion of the reserves base. This news supports our 4p valuation and BUY recommendation. In this weeks news:
(OEX LN)
0.9
Oilex took another step forward towards the monetization of the block resources as it successfully completed a work over technique at the Cambay-76H horizontal well in the Cambay field onshore India. In the news:
3m Performance
25 20 15 10 5 0 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

18.75p -6.8%
0.7
Procurement
and installation of equipment capable of managing the high reservoir pressure in the Cambay field completed. stimulation stages 8, 7, 6 and 5 have also been successfully completed. the eight fracture stimulation stages have now been fully opened and one partially opened. remaining four stages have been completed and the well will then be flowed to surface.
0.5 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)
0.9p 5.9%
Remedial action on A13 completed
and production commenced with oil flowing naturally attributed to poor completion; successful remedial action taken
A12 underperformance isolated and A14 well planned imminently 3D seismic planned over the asset to
delineate the productive horizons million at year end
The milling and clean out of fracture
What the above means is that four of
Cash or cash equivalents of 1.8

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new s/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11157901
Tubing will be installed once the
Source: Bloomberg, Fox-Davies &
Tower Resources
Moneyed Up!
3m Performance
(TRP LN)
The announcement of a ~$32mm financing for Tower Resources should help restore investor confidence in a management team that has suffered the headwinds that exploration sometimes brings. With Namibia now the focus, the monies available should help the Company to once again gain traction. In this news:

3p -4.0%
~$32mm Equity Financing Facility with

Darwin.
Main purpose to provide funding

flexibility
This agreement is in addition to its
existing 8mm Standby Equity Distribution Agreement ("SEDA") with YA Global Master SPV Ltd ("Yorkville").
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Oil Monitor
Bowleven
A Butterfly Emerges?
3m Performance
30 March 2012
(BLVN LN)
The results mark the close of a year of transition for BowLeven as it migrates towards the development of its discoveries. Sapele's volumes continue to improve, and while the all-important commerciality is yet to be declared the outlook remains buoyant. With the final development scenario for Etinde underway and a full work 2012 programme fully funded, investors are well set for a year of intense activity. Following these results we reinstate our BUY recommendation with a 250p price target. In this news:
Salamander Energy
Confidence Booster
3m Performance
(SMDR LN)

98p 11.3%

219p -2.5%
While the news underlines how far Salamander has progressed and the determination of its management in refining the Company's strategy, further work needs to be done to fully unlock the true value of the assets. The Company has re-aligned its portfolio to focus on three core areas and an active drilling campaign this year starting with the spud of the Tutung Alpha-3 ("TA-3") appraisal well should enhance the Company's upward trajectory. In the news:
2P Reserves increased by 13.6% to
Sapele-2 and Sapele-3 exploration
wells encountered significant hydrocarbon intervals at multiple levels, our fourth and fifth successful wells in the Douala Bas Sapele-2 tested high quality light oil from Deep Omicron interval with a peak flow rate of 2,738 boepd Sapele-3 further extended the Deep Omicron and Epsilon fairways, with oil encountered in both intervals, 16 kilometres from the original Sapele-1 discovery well Substantial upgrade of Sapele Deep Omicron in place hydrocarbon volumes following Sapele-3 well results. Deep Omicron P50 STOIIP and Associated GIIP now estimated as 615mm bbls and 1.5 tcf respectively. Resource revision on-going. Significant progress made towards finalising the Etinde development concept, with the preferred approach based on a hub and spoke development Jack-up rig contracted for two firm plus two optional wells on Etinde 2D seismic data set on the onshore Bomono Permit acquired in 2011 now fully integrated into existing dataset and first exploration well location identified. 4C OBC 3D seismic acquired over parts of block MLHP-7. Interpretation to support appraisal/development activities now ongoing. Group cash balance $124 million at 31 December 2011, no debt. Fully funded for current exploration and appraisal programme on Etinde and Bomono Bomono farm-out discussions ongoing. EOV disposal nearing completion.
75.3 MMboe (2010: 66.3 MMboe), with 8MMbo added from Bualuang East Terrace discovery boepd (2010: 20,300 boepd)
Average daily production of 18,600 Matured prospect inventory in North

Kutei, independent CPR points to 676mm boe of gross mean prospective resources in four highgraded prospects before working capital changes, increased by 68% to $293.6 million (2010: $174.4 million) and profit before tax of $112.6 million (2010: loss of $113.7 million) $85.8 million (2010: $99.2 million) and net debt of $210.1 million (2010: $190.2 million) interest in Kerendan development, Greater Kerendan area, Indonesia, and expanded acreage position in Greater Bualuang area forecast to be 12,000-13,000 boepd following disposal of non-core producing assets for installation 3Q 2012
Record pre-tax operating cash flow,
Year-end cash and funds balance of
Deepened
2012 average daily production rate
Bualuang Bravo Platform on schedule Ensco-53 Tutung

rig mobilised for development and exploration drilling in Greater Bualuang area Alpha-3 spudded, gas appraisal drilling ahead (the Tutung discovery is a gas-condensate accumulation with a mean resource volume estimated at circa 60 Bcf) Mako jack up rig in Greater Bualuang area from 3Q 2012 commence 4Q 2012
Signed 12 month contract for Atwood Exploration drilling in North Kutei to

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Oil Monitor
Ithaca Energy In
Assumes operatorship of Carna discovery
3m Performance
30 March 2012
(IAE LN)
Ithacas confidence on the prospectivity of the Carna discovery which lies adjacent to the producing Garrow and Kilmar gas fields has risen. Ithaca plans to accelerate development studies on the field and the intention to submit Field Development Plan for approval before the end of 2012 is real positive news. In this news:
Volga Gas
Looking Forward
3m Performance 130
(VGAS LN)
This weeks results underline what has been a transformational year for Volga Gas, with 2011 seeing the Company enter 2012 with a better cash flows and a growing core with which to provide fuel for future growth. The $10mm debt facility provides much needed development flexibility, which should see the Company close 2012 in a better position than it started. With current 102p production up a further 16%, and an active 1.7% exploration programme, the opportunity for further growth remains significant. In this news:
250 200 150 100 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)
110 90 70 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)
199p 6.4%
Increased working interest from 16%

to 32%.
Assumes operatorship in the Carna

discovery. The effective date of the Acquisition is January 1, 2012.
The Carna discovery was made in early

2009 with net pay of 127 feet TVD was encountered in well 43/21b-5Z. stabilised rate of 8.8mmcfpd.
Group average production increased

93% to 2,147 barrels of oil equivalent per day (2010: 1,115 bopd) - Current production of approximately 2,500 boepd million (2010 $13.1 million). $2.6 million).
The well tested gas at a gross New

ownership structure: Ithaca Energy - operator (32%), Dyas Limited (24%), Centrica (40%), EWE Energie AG (4%).
Revenues increased 118% to $28.6 EBITDA up 256% to $8.9 million (2010 Net loss of $1.1 million (2010: net loss of
$16.9 million).
Operating cash flow before working
capital of $7.6 million (2010 $5.5 million), after offsetting $3.1 million of gas sales for loan repayments (2010: nil). ($26.6 million at 31 December 2010).
Nautical Petroleum
3m Performance 450
(NPE LN)
10.1million in cash at 31 December 2011

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/m arket-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11157937
Results of GCA report on the Kraken discovery

Following on from the interim results on the 19th, this week's GCA report for Nighthawk establishes reserves from the Kraken discovery following the results of the recent series of flow tests (commercial flowrates from 9/02b-5z well drilled in Q3, 2011). This news continues to support the stock specifically, and with a positive UK budget for operators in the North Sea, we 320p remain optimistic fopr the continued -2.4% growth of the Company. In this news:
Independent Reserves Opinion (IRO)

conducted by Gaffney, Cline & Associates Limited (GCA) on the Kraken discovery. at 42mm bbl and 3P at 68mm bbl.
GCA estimates (net) 1P at 22mm bbl, 2P

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Oil Monitor
Afren
2011 results underline progress
3m Performance
30 March 2012
(AFR LN)
2011 has been a transitional year for Afren, and it now has a portfolio which offers balance between exploration and production activities spread across geographies. It has lined up a high impact exploration programme which ensures that the potential for the medium-long term remains very strong. In 2011, the Company commenced oil production from Ebok field - a significant milestone. Further it also expanded its global presence through a series of asset acquisitions in Nigeria, East Africa and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. In this news:
Faroe Petroleum
Flush with Success, the trick is to continue
3m Performance
(FPM LN)
It seems to be that 2011 has been a year in which a number of companies have made the transition to Producer from Explorer, which is good for the sector; Faroe is now one of them. This balance has been brought about by monetisation of Maria discovery through swap deal, to discoveries on Butch in Norway and its first UK operated well - Fulla. We believe that while 2011 has been a transformational year, the momentum needs to be carried into 2012, and with a capex budget of up to 180mm, we expect this to be the case. In this news:
130p 5.3%
166p 9.0%
Net working interest 2P reserves

increased by 132% to 185 mmboe. increased by 633% to 995 mmboe
Fivefold increase in 2P reserves to

23.8mm boe
Net 2P/2C reserves and resources Cash at bank $292 mm Revenues were up 87% y-o-y to
Capex of up to 180mm - 100mm on Average production of approximately

2,500boepd (economic production averaged approximately 10,100boepd) to 80.2m (2010: 15.1m) 40.9m (2010: 6.0m) (2010: 26.0m loss)
exploration and up to 80mm on developments
$597mm led by a 34% increase in hydrocarbon production (19.1 mboed) and 37%/54% rise in oil/gas price realizations. with cash flow from operations recording 62% growth to $338mm. production of 42-46 mboed.
Turnover increased more than five-fold EBITDA increased significantly to Profit before tax, increased to 14.3m Secured $250m (approximately 156m)
reserve based lending facility. 132.2m)
Net profit almost doubled to $125mm Group firmly on track for 2012 Net debt at $548 mm (Gearing 45%) Currently participating in high impact
wells offshore Ghana and onshore Kurdistan region of Iraq. tracked to H2 2012.
Cash of 111.6m (31 December 2010: Award of 7 new licences (3 operated)

in Norway 2011 APA Round.
First phase of Okoro East to be fast Entry into the Kurdistan region of Iraq
through acquisition of a 60% participating interest in the Barda Rash PSC and a 20% participating interest in the Ain Sifni PSC.
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Oil Monitor
JKX Oil & Gas
Baseline established, rebuilding starts here
3m Performance
30 March 2012
(JKX LN)
There is plenty for the Bulls and the Bears to read in JKXs statement as the higher revenues and drilling successes mask what is declining cash flows and lower production, and as always, for us, cash is king. LPG will make a full contribution in 2012, Russian gas should come on stream in 2012 and the recent decline in operational performance appears to have been arrested. Nevertheless, we believe that the optimistic outlook will take time for the market to believe and any resultant weakness in these shares following the results is an opportunity, we believe, to pick up the stock as 2012 should be a year of better performance and improving outlook. In this news:
Parkmead Group
The End of the Beginning
3m Performance
(PMG LN)
These results mark the end of the Company's journey from investment vehicle to junior E&P. these results are not about the reserve base, which is small, or the income, which is negligible (this year), but about the fact that the with ~$13mm in the bank, and the 2012 appraisal and development programme funded, all the ingredients for near-term growth are now in place.
161p -11.0%
20p -1.3%
Fully funded for its 2012 programme of

appraisal and drilling
First
UK North Sea acquisition completed in November 2011 (Platypus and Possum)
Near term appraisal drilling Second North Sea deal agreed in

December 2011 (Pharos) gas prospect
Production down 12% to 9,045

boepd (2010: 10,324 boepd); $82.1mm (2010: $95mm exceptional items) $236.9mm mid-year;
Operating profit down 14% to
In addition to 4 UKCS gas basin blocks Third oil and gas deal agreed in March
2012 - acquisition of a portfolio of Netherlands onshore assets fields
before
Revenue up 23% to a record LPG project in Ukraine completed Completion of the Koshekhablskoye
gas field facility in Russia
Four producing gas fields and two oil First production for Parkmead
The full news story here: http://images.headland.co.uk/mmct2url.asp?ml=foxda vies&ea=fox-davies@foxdavies.com&cc=FOXDAVIES2826&url=http://www.lon donstockexchange.com/exchange/news/marketnews/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11162042
Phase
II Koshekhablskoye development planned to double production from booked reserves; exploration wells in the Molchanovskoye "Wedge Zone"and the Zaplavskoye exploration licence; booked reserves grew to 90.7MMboe, with a reserves replacement of 2.7.
Drilling of two successful Ukrainian
Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/n ews/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11159290
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Oil Monitor
Serica Energy Pl (SQZ LN) Enegi Oil Plc
30 March 2012
(ENEG LN)
2011 has been a good year for the Company, as it now has a portfolio which offers balance between near term and long term drilling activities spread across its operating regions (Tanzania and Canada). In addition to these areas, and in keeping with the Company's desire for a diverse portfolio of direct and indirect interests a range of assets at throughout the spectrum of the development cycle, the Company is 16p also looking at further investment in East 10.2% Africa as well as North and South America. With this approach, and the existing asset base, we believe that the Company is well placed to grow in 2012. While there is no doubting the portfolio's potential, we believe that further resources will be required for the Company to unlock and test this potential. In this news:
phase. On to the next phase . Equity Funding on the Agenda?

3m Performance 50 2011 has seen Serica complete its migration away from Asia, towards the UCS and Atlantic margin, and the near-term development of Columbus will herald the start of the new phase of growth. While past costs will be refunded by BP's farm in to its Namibian acreage, we believe that the scope for dramatic improvements in free cash flow are limited (cost cutting will 37p have an impact at the margins), its yearend -2.0% cash balance of $20mm in the context of its and its indicated programme of exploration, appraisal and development, means that the likelihood of an equity financing is likely as a means to supplement debt and other contractual financing arrangements in meeting the funding gap.
2011 results shows steady expansion

3m Performance 25
20 15 10 5 0
Last Close (5Change (5 -day)
Promising 2011 fiscal performance: o Revenue of $27.1mm o Cash from operations $7.5mm o Cash position of US$20 million o No debt Columbus field development in 2012: o Negotiations concluded with BG for
export via Lomond platform, subject to final documentation, partner and Board approvals o All engineering and design studies completed o NSAI estimate 11.2mm boe gross reserves in Block 23/16f Wells planned for Doyle and South Otter subject to farm out end
Solo strategically increased its holdings
in the Ruvuma PSA in Tanzania from 12.5% to 18.75% in the period and to 25% subsequently Tanzania), spudded 22 December 2011, currently at 2,600m. working interest properties,. in Reef's Ontario
The Ntorya-1 well (Mtwara block
Loan with Reef Resources converted to a A General Conveyance and Assignment
Agreement was completed in July 2011 and Solo obtained a 23.8% working interest for the conversion of its existing loan and additional payments. a further 14.3% for a further payment once Reef had raised at least that level of independent third party finance. CDN$1.96 million financing. Subsequently, Solo is currently completing arrangements to take up the additional percentage interest and expects to complete that transaction in the 2nd quarter 2012. Company also commenced evaluation of a new exploration opportunity in Argentina under a Heads of Agreement with Obtala Resources Ltd Airport North #1 was spudded in Canada. The well should be completed in early April.
Two further UK licences awarded at year 85% Namibia's interest in central Luderitz
Basin blocks (offshore)
Solo also obtained the option to acquire
o Large structures identified o Secured farm-out with BP. o BP will carry full cost of 3D seismic
survey and past costs (earns 30%)
In December 2011 Reef completed a
Six new blocks awarded in Irish Rockall

Basin, Serica operator
o Three large prospects mapped:

Muckish, Midleton, West Midleton o Farm-out campaigns commenced for licences in the Slyne and Rockall Basins Farm-out underway prior to drilling first well in Morocco
The
Post period, a new exploration well;
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Oil Monitor
Enegi Oil Plc
Building on opportunities
3m Performance
30 March 2012
(ENEG LN)
Today's results mark the close of a year of transition for Enegi, and progress can finally be made on unlocking the value within its assets. In addition to building a portfolio of opportunities which offer potential for the Company to grow from alternate revenue streams number of sources, most notably the strategic partnership with Advanced Buoy Technology, there is also the Company's (5Change (5 -day) 10.2% more conventional development portfolio. We believe that with ~$550m in cash, an ambitious future development programme and limited revenue generation, in the near-term, there will need to be either a scaling back of the development programme, or a combination of farmouts and / or disposals, or as is more likely, a financing to accelerate the opening up of the asset base. In the news:
25 20 15 10 5 0 Last Close
16p
Nearing completion of the workover

on the PAP#1 well
o Data suggests well could be

flowed continuously
Potential for Shale play across assets

(Green Point) Technology
Agreement with Advanced Buoy o Applying for licenses in the UK

North Sea under the 27th Seaward Licensing round o Targeting marginal / stranded gas reserves Executing early stage prospecting programme (County Clare, Ireland) Board
Strengthened management team and o Technical

and credentials bolstered financial
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Oil Monitor
30 March 2012
Stocks under coverage

Price Company Aminex Borders & Southern Bowleven Circle Oil Desire Petroleum Enegi Oil Falklands Oil & Gas Great Eastern Energy Gulf Keystone Gulfsands Hardy Oil & Gas Heritage Oil Jubilant Energy Matra Petroleum Max Petroleum MEO Australia Ticker AEX LN Recommendation UR Date Latest Nov'11 5p Target 13p Difference 160%
BOR LN
BLVN LN COP LN DES LN
BUY
Buy
Nov'10
Nov'11
67p
98p
150p
250p
124%
155%
BUY
UR
Feb'12
Mar'11
21p
29p
95p
40p
352%
38%
ENEG LN
FOGL LN GEEC LN
UR
BUY BUY
Nov'10
Apr'11 Mar'12
16p
63p 328p
25p
250p 440p
56%
297% 34%
GKP LN
GPX LN
BUY
UR
Mar'12
Jan'11
262p
150p
320p
350p
22%
133%
HDY LN
HOIL LN
BUY
BUY
Aug'11
Mar'11
158p
143p
250p
310p
58%
117%
JUB LN
MTA LN
Buy
BUY
Mar'12
Jan'12
31p
1p
55p
4p
77%
290%
Range Resources Red Emperor

Rockhopper San Leon Energy Sterling Energy Tower Resources Victoria Oil & Gas
MXP LN MEO AU RRL LN RMP LN

RKH LN
BUY BUY BUY BUY

BUY
Mar'11 Feb'12 Mar'12 Mar'12

Nov'11
13p A$0.34 13p 42p

328p
50p A$0.60 27p 65p

600p
285% 76% 108% 55%

83%
SLE LN SEY LN
TRP LN
BUY HOLD
HOLD
Feb'12 Jul'11
Jul'10
10p 39p
3p
60p 30p
4p
VOG LN
BUY
Feb'12
4p
13p
500% (23%) 33% 225%
NOTE: Bold indicates Research this week
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Oil Monitor
Disclaimer - Important Information
30 March 2012
This document is not independent and should not be relied on as an impartial or objective assessment of its subject matter. Given the foregoing this document is deemed to be a marketing communication and as such has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and Fox-Davies Capital Limited is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination of this document as it would be if it were independent investment research. Fox This document has been issued by Fox-Davies Capital Limited for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific entity. Fox-Davies Capital Limited and/or connected persons may, from time to time, have positions in, make a market in and/or effect transactions in any investment or related investment mentioned herein and may provide financial services to the issuers of such investments. The information contained herein is based on materials and sources that we believe to be reliable, however, Fox-Davies Capital Limited makes no representation or warranty, either express or implied, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and Fox-Davies Capital Limited is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. None of Fox-Davies Capital Limited, its affiliates or employees shall have any liability whatsoever for any indirect or consequential loss or damage arising from any use of this document. This report has been approved in the UK by Fox-Davies Capital Limited solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. In the UK, this report is directed at and is for distribution only to persons who (i) fall within Article 19(1) (persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments) or Article 49(2) (a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (as amended) or (ii) are professional clients or eligible counterparties of Fox-Davies Capital Limited (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This report must not be acted on or relied up on by persons in the UK who are not relevant persons. Neither this report nor any copy of part thereof may be distributed in any other jurisdictions where its distribution may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. Distribution of this report in any such other jurisdictions may constitute a violation of UK or US securities law, or the law of any such other jurisdictions. Investments in general involve some degree of risk, including the risk of capital loss. The services, securities and investments discussed in this document may not be available to nor suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and financial resources and, if in any doubt, should seek advice from an investment advisor. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Where investment is made in currencies other than the investors base currency, movements in exchange rates will have an effect on the value, either favourable or unfavourable. Levels and bases for taxation may change. When we comment on AIM or OFEX shares you should be aware that because the rules for those markets are less demanding that the Official List of London Stock Exchange plc the risks are higher. Furthermore, the marketability of these shares is often restricted. Fox-Davies Capital Limited and/or its associated companies may from time-to-time provide investment advice or other services to, or solicit such business from, any of the companies referred to in this document. Accordingly, information may be available to Fox-Davies Limited that is not reflected in this material and Fox-Davies Capital Limited may have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. In addition, Fox-Davies Capital Limited, the directors and employees thereof and/or any connected persons may have an interest in the securities, warrants, futures, options, derivatives or other financial instrument of any of the companies referred to in this document and may from time-to-time add or dispose of such interests. Neither the whole nor any part of this material may be duplicated in any form or by any means. Neither should any of this material be redistributed or disclosed to anyone without the prior consent of Fox-Davies Capital Limited. Fox-Davies Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Fox-Davies Capital Limited may distribute research in reliance on rule 15a-6(a)(2) of the Securities and Exchange Act 1934 to persons that are major US Institutional investors, however, transactions in any securities must be effected through a US registered broker-dealer. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of the relevant countrys laws for which Fox-Davies Capital Limited does not accept any responsibility. By accepting this document you agree that you have read the above disclaimer and to be bound by the foregoing limitations/restrictions. Please note that unless otherwise stated, the share price used in this publication is taken at the close of business for the previous day.
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130 120 110 100 90 WTI BFO

130 120 110 100 90 WTI

20 15 10 5 NBP Henry Hub

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

0.008 0.003 0.039

-0.2 1.0 5.2

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

Dr Zac Phillips +44 203 463 5039 zac.phillips@fox-davies.com

Neeraj Paliwal +44 203 463 5000 neeraj.paliwal@fox-davies.com

Alex Ogbechie +44 203 463 5040 alex.ogbechie@fox-davies.com

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

Distillates, Gasoline & Refinery Charge oil

Oil Price ($/bbl)

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

100 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

From the trading Floor

Roxi Petroleum Plc Syngas Ltd Mako Energy Ltd

Globe Exploration Lp Kairiki Energy Ltd

12 11 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

25 20 15 10 5 0 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

0.5 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

Remedial action on A13 completed

The milling and clean out of fracture

What the above means is that four of

Cash or cash equivalents of 1.8

Tubing will be installed once the

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new s/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11156569

Source: Bloomberg, Fox-Davies &

5 4 3 2 1 0 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

~$32mm Equity Financing Facility with

Main purpose to provide funding

This agreement is in addition to its

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new s/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11156609

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

150 130 110 90 70 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

300 250 200 150 100 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

2P Reserves increased by 13.6% to

Sapele-2 and Sapele-3 exploration

Average daily production of 18,600 Matured prospect inventory in North

Record pre-tax operating cash flow,

Year-end cash and funds balance of

2012 average daily production rate

Bualuang Bravo Platform on schedule Ensco-53 Tutung

Signed 12 month contract for Atwood Exploration drilling in North Kutei to

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new s/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11156659

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

250 200 150 100 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

110 90 70 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

Increased working interest from 16%

Assumes operatorship in the Carna

The Carna discovery was made in early

Group average production increased

The well tested gas at a gross New

Full news story here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new s/market-news/market-newsdetail.html?announcementId=11156565

Operating cash flow before working

Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

10.1million in cash at 31 December 2011

Results of GCA report on the Kraken discovery

350 250 150 50 Last Close (5Change (5 -day)

Independent Reserves Opinion (IRO)

GCA estimates (net) 1P at 22mm bbl, 2P