Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized

( 2010

Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized

55419

2010
STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2010

36.00

2010
STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2010


2010

CIP
2010 /
.2011.3
ISBN 978-7-5021-8368-4
.
.
. - - - -2010
- - - -2010
. X511
CIP 2011 055976
0120112951
State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010
Copyright 2010 by
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/
The World Bank

This work was originally published by The World Bank in English as

State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2010. This Chinese translation was
arranged by China Petroleum Industry Press. China Petroleum Industry Press
is responsible for the quality of the translation. In case of any discrepancies,
the original language will govern.
2010

2 1 100011

www.petropub.com.cn

01064523582 01064523620

2011 3 1 2011 3 1

7101000 1/167.75
100
36.00

2010

Alexandre Kossoy
Philippe Ambrosi

Andy Stone

Imtiaz Ahmad, Claudia Barrera, Benoit

Bosquet, Rodney Boyd, Lance Coogan,Lex de Jonge, John Kilani,
Werner Kornexl, Aditi Maheshwari, Taisei Matsuki, Grzegorz Peszko,
Alexandrina,Platonova-Oquab, Monali Ranade, Milo Sjardin, and Jari
Vayrynen

Luz Abusaid, Agnes

Biscaglia, Veronique Bishop, Eron Bloomgarden,Anna-Maria Bogdanova,
Martina Bosi, Jean-Christophe Bougle, Alban Brindle, John Buckman,
Scott Cantor, James Cantrell, Marcos Castro, Dougal Corden, Isabelle
Curien, Karen Degouve de Nuncques, Eduardo Dopazo, Nadine Dulac,
Patricia Ephraim, Emmanuel Fages, Justin Felt, Francisco Fernandez
Asin, Sonia Medina Gomez, Pierre Guigon, Isabel Hagbrink, Takashi
Hongo, Lenny Hochschild, Pedro Huarte-Mendicoa, Robert Hunt,
Carollyne Hutter, Masaya Inamuro, Friso de Jong, Yvan Keckeis, Ted
Kennedy, Solvita Klapare, Daigo Koga, Anita L. Kossoy, Benoit Leguet,
Martin Lawless, Mark Lewis, Gautier Le Maux, Vincent Monteux, Lucy
Mortimer, Ken Newcombe, Shahyar Niakan, Akiko Nishimae, John O
Brien, Ian ODonohue, Roon Osman, Christian de Perthuis, Neeraj
Prasad, Saima Qadir, Brice Quesnel, David Rapin, Frank Rasmussen,

Pontus Ripstrand, Fabrice Le Sache, Geoff Sinclair, Chandra Shekhar

Sinha, Laurent Segalen, Ash Sharma, Trevor Sikorski, Sara Stahl, Barry
Sterland, Charlotte Streck, Endre Tvinnereim, Laurent Valiergue, JanWillem van de Ven, Ariane Verbeeck, Alessandro vitelli, Emilio Weldon,
Yevgen Yesyrkenov, Bernhard Zander, Elizabeth Zelljadt, and Susann
Zimmer
2010
WBI

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

19

2.5

21

2.6

25

B 33
3.1

33

3.2

38

3.3

39

3.4

K-G-L K-L 41

3.5

B 46

53
4.1

53

4.2

55

4.3

61

4.4

2012
67

4.5

69

4.6

70

4.7

75

2010

4.8

77

80
5.1

80

5.2

2012 89

91

93

98

101

112

117

2009 2008
2009

GDP 2009 0.6%

3.2% 6%
2009 1440 1030 87
tCO2e 1
2009 EU ETS
1190 890
73%
14
EU
70%
4.2 10
International Monetary Fund, 2010, World Economic Outlook (April)
1

2010

2009 180 130

20082009

2008

2009

3093

100526

6326

118474

31

183

34

117

69

309

41

50

62

198

805

2179

23

276

155

2003

3278

101492

7362

122822

1072

26277

1055

17543

404

6511

211

2678

25

367

26

354

57

419

46

338

486

7297

283

3370

4836

135066

8700

143735

2009

54%

CDM
CDM 59% 27 19
JI
2

AAU

CDM

CDM 3
CER

2012 EU EU
ETS 20082012 CER
ERU

pCER

2010 12

RGGI 10 22 16

EU ETS

2009 EU
ETS
3

2010

1
1

2012
2.3

CER
2012 10 tCO2e JI
2013 2 ERU
GIS AAU
18 tCO2e ER
B 4.75
tCO2e EU15 70%
3.5 tCO2e
1 tCO2e
7.5 tCO2e EU ETS
EU CDM JI 4.5 tCO2e

2 tCO2e 2009
2.3 tCO2e EU

2.1

2009 EUA 1185

887 2008 18% 2008 105%
2008 EUA 32.5 22.1 2009
42% 18.7 14

EU ETS EUA
2008
EU
EUA
2009 2 EUA 8
9 30 1 2009 5
2009
13 16

2009 EU ETS
EC
5

33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5

20

08
20 4
08
20 5
0
20 8
08 6
20 7
0
20 8
0 8
20 8
08 9
20
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20
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20 12
09
20
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09
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0
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20
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20
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09 11

20 1
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20
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20 2
1
20 0
10 3

2010

20082009

Bluenext IDEACarbon

NAP EUA
EUA 2
4EU ETS CER 5

NAP
EU ETS

EU ETS

2009 EU ETS
ECX
10% 15% EUA

2.2

EU ETS

GHG
1
20052007
2% 5% 0.4 1 tCO2e 2008
2007 2008
EU ETS

2 EU ETS

3EU ETS

CDC Climat

A. D. Ellerman, F. J. Convery, C. de Perthuis, 2010, Pricing Carbon: The European Union

Emissions Trading Scheme, Cambridge University Press
Source: New Energy
Finance, 2009, Impact of the EU ETS on power sector investmentsa survey of European utilities
7

2010

4EU ETS
CDM JI
5EU ETS

6
ETS GHG

EU ETS

EUA

2 EU ETS

EUA
EU
17 tCO2e EU ETS 2020
8

EU ETS
EU ETS

3 EU ETS

2005 20052007

4
EU ETS
GHG

2.3

EUA EU ETS
2009 EUA 1185 887 EU
ETS 2009
63 tCO2e 14
2008 450% 70% 2009
EU
A. D. Ellerman, F. J. Convery, C. de Perthuis, 2010, op. cit
9

2010

2.3.32009 2008 75
2
800

700
600
500
400
300
200
100

20

05

20 1
05
20 4
05
20 7
05

20 10
06
20 1
06
20 4
06
20 7
06

20 10
07
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07
20 4
07
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07

20 10
08
20 1
08
20 4
08
20 7
08

20 10
09
20 1
09
20 4
09
20 7
09

20 10
10

2005

EU

Bluenext
2
2009

OTC 2008
3
EU

2010 4

10

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

10

09
20

20

09
20

09
20

08

20

08

08
20

20

07

07

20

07

20

20

06
20

06
20

06
20

05

20

05
20

20

05

0%

2005

2009 2010
EUA 10% 15%
EU ETS

EU EU ETS

1 EU 2
34
56

CER
Rpublique Franaise Ministre de l
conomie, de lindustrie et de lemploi, 2010, La
rgulation des marchs du CO2 -Rapport de la mission confie Michel Prada
11

2010

EUA
EU
EU
1 3

EUA CER
EU

EUA

2009 12 9 50

2009 EUA

12

2009 9 EU
2014

EU

2.3.1

2009
EU ETS 11.2%
3
2009
2008 2008
EUA 2009 2008
20102012 EUA

2.3.2

EUA

2009
EUA 2012
EUA
2012 12
EU EU ETS
EUA 2008 95%2007 82%

13

2010

350

300
250
200
150
100
50

20

20

06

06 9
1
20 11 5
07
20 1 14
07
1
20 3 3
07
1
20 5 4
07
1
20 7 3
07
1

20 9 2
07
1
20 11 0
08
20 1 9
08
8
20 3
08
8
20 5
08
7

20 7
08
20 9 6
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4
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09
20 1 3
09
2
20 3
09
3
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20 7 2
09
20 8 1
09
20 1 30
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2
12 9

28

4
2006 9 2009 12

EURIBOR 250

2009

5 2009 3
2009 9 2010 3
sCER

2.3.3

EUA

2009 EUA
EU ETS 2012
EUA2009
2008 6
14

20093

15.0
14.5

14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

20099

15.0
14.5

14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0

2009

2010
20103

15.0
14.5

14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0

2009

2010

1.3%

15

2010

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20081 20085 20089 20091
20095
20099 20101
20097
200911
20083 20087 200811 20093

2010
EUA
2013 EUA
EUA2013 12 2010

EU
2010 2011

EUA
EUA
EU
2010 EUA
5.1.2

16

2010 4 EU ETS GHG 2009

11% 2005 EU ETS
9866 2009
16.9 2008 2.14 17.5

PGE Belchatow EU ETS

2009
10% EU ETS
2010 4 6 EC EU ETS 5000
11000 11500 25
2008 EU25 EU ETS 50% 80%
10%EU ETS

10 8
2
10
2010 4 1 EU ETS
CITL 1400
2009
2008 90% 2009
2010 5 15
EU ETS 2009 18.7 18.8
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/citl_en_phase_ii.htm
Point Carbon, Carbon Market Daily, April 1, 2010
17

2010

2009 0.4
8.4% 23.8%

2008 EU
2008 18.3%
EU 2009 33%
2009 21%
EU ETS 15.4%
-3500 -3400
-700
2013
2009 5% 1675 2008 1761
GHG 2008 8.3%

,
2009
5%2010
0.4%

2010 4 1
http://www.worldsteel.org/pictures/newsfiles/1109%20Production%20figures.pdf

Barclays Capital, Monthly Carbon Standard - Do the Right Thing, March 17, 2010
Barclays Capital, Monthly Carbon Standard - Do the Right Thing, March 17, 2010
18

2.4

2.4.1

2008 sCER 2009

10 sCER
30% 175 125 CER 32%
16.6 11.9 2008 24.5 16.8
EUA 2009 85%
CER 6340 9140
2009 sCER

4.3
CER

CER

CER ERU

AF 300 WB)
2% 2010 5 530
9100 6550 CER Bluenext 75% OTC

2% CER
2009
150 170 2010 4
29 450
sCER [
EU ETS ]

19

2010

2.4.2

HFC N2O
CER
ERU
2009 7 EU 20
EU
ECX
CER OTC
ERU
CER

LDC CER
0.5
OTC

2.4.3

CER

2009 CER 1.32 2008

10% 3000 CER 2010
4 CER 2007 7
53 CDM EB
Tv Sd CDM
2010 3 24 ECX CER

Point Carbon, CDM & JI Monitor, March 31, 2010

20

EU ETS 2010 3 CER

EUA
5 2009 sCER EUA

CER CER

sCER
CER
CER

2.5

2.5.1

CER
CER
CER
2008
72009 0.91 CER
56%
CER
DOE 2008
12 [ DNV] 2009 2 [ SGS]
2009 9 2010 2
Kemco2010 3
CDM
CER

Lance Coogan of Gemini Carbon

21

2010

20
18

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
20084
20092
20094
20091
20093

7
2008 10 2009 12

CER

8
EUA
9
2006 89% 2009
59% 2010 1 54% EU ETS

22

30

25
20
15
10
5
0
20094
20084
20092
20093
20091

8
2008 10 2009 12
300

250
200
150
100
50
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9
2006 2010 1

2.5.2

2009 5 tCO2e
23

2010

106 EUA 4179 CER 910 EUA

CER EUA 2009
89 83% CER
18

1 sCER

2009 18

24

3EU
ERPA

2.6

EU ETS 2012 GHG

EU
EC
EU

EU
EU
EU
ETS[ OECD
]

2007 EC NAP EU ETS

EC 20082012 NAP
CO2
25

2010

2009 9 23 2007
EC 2009 12 3 EC

2009
NAP
0.8 EUA

EC

1.64 8% EU ETS

2010 4
NAP EC 2007

2.6.1

CER ERU

20132020 1.5 tCO2e

20082020 15.5 tCO2e 20082012
14 tCO2e
1.5 tCO2e EC
2010 [ Comitology]

2010 4 10
1
26

14 tCO2e 2008
2020 17 tCO2e
EU ETS

2005 3%20132020
7 8 tCO2e 0.9 1 tCO2e

EUA
EU ETS 11a2 6
8 9 20132020
2012 12 31 [ CP-1]
CER ERU 2015 3 31 EUA
2012 [ CP-2]
2012 12 31
2020 2010 12 31
CP-2 LDC

2009
EU ETS LDC CP-2 EU

EU
EU EC
Point Carbon, Use of CERs/ERUs in
Phase 3: Questions and Answers, March 19, 2010
6%
13.4% 2.80 tCO2e14 tCO2e/5
http://www.unohrlls.org/en/ldc/related/62/
2009 10 49
LDC 33 15
27

2010

CER

CER B [AAU
CERERU RMU]
EU CER
CER CER
GHG

2010 3 11 174
CER CER 2000
Hungarian Energy Power Kft 80 CER

EU ETS

EU Bluenext
CER
Bluenext 1.5

EU
AAU CER EU
20082012
2010 3 22
CER 9 9.5
CER
CER EU ETS

28

AAU GIS

2008 CER
2008 6180
8420 CER

2010 2 17 EC
CER EU ETS
EU ECX
Bluenext CER
2010 8 2010 2 18
EC 2010 3 19
ERU CER
2010 4 19 8:002010 5 1 800
2010 4 30 2009

2010 4 16 EU ETS EU
CER

2.6.2

88%
Socit Gnrale, Commodities weekly, March 15, 2010
EU ETS
CER
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/index_en.htm, March 19, 2010
29

2010

10%
2% 2005

20052007

0.4 EUA
0.17 EUA
0.0690 EUA
2008 12 17 ETS

2013
EU ETS
77% 65%EU ETS
2013

2011
2010 2013
80% 2020 30% 2027

1.2
EIT 180
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/auctioning_en.htm
EU GHG

2009 9 18 EC http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.
do?reference=IP/09/1338&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en http://
ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/pdf/wg3_16_sep_presentation.pdf

http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/
task_force/2009/07/ExSum%2520to%2520post%2520on%2520website.pdf
30

100%
20072008 EU GHG
10%

CCS EU
ETS

1 2009 12 31
EC
2009 12 24 EC

2 2010 6 30 EC

3 2010 12 31 EC

4
2011
2009/292009 4 23 http://eur-lex.europa.
eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0063:0087:EN:PDF
ETS
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32010D0002:EN:NOT
4 6 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/
climat/emission/pdf/proposed_auctioning_reg.pdf
(http://ec.europa.
eu/environment/climat/emission/pdf/ia_auctioning_final.pdf),
31

2010

2009 11 30 EU
2012
12 14 EUA 2013 CO2
0.45 0.65 EUA
2013
2009 12 15 EC 2010 1 22
RWE

2003 10 13 EC 3 EUA
CCS
EUA 2015 12 31 2010
2 EIB 2011 2 EUA
EU 2013 1 EUA

http://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/KKMFHGJCJOONFCILJFFDIHJ
A3ASOQHU6U-6434LUJ5E5T/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Auctioning_-_EURELECTRIC_letter_to_EU_
Governments_30112009-2009-030-1017-01-E.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/pdf/auction_eurelectric.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/pdf/eurelectric.pdf

http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CONSLEG:2003L0087:20090625:EN:
PDF
http://www.ner300.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/DRAFT-NER300-Decision.pdf
32

3.1

2009 11 25 2009

NZ ETS 2008
ETS

ETS
NZ ETS [ NZU]
25 18 13 20102012
20102012
CO2 NZU
EITE 2015

NZ ETS 2008 9 10 2008 1 1

2008 11 ETS
2009 8

33

2010

NZ ETS
CPRS

3.1.1

NZ ETS

2015 NZ ETS 6
2010 7 1
2008

LULUCF 2013 1 1
LULUCF 48% 2015 1
1

3.1.2

NZ ETS 20102012

NZU 25
NZU
2008 LULUCF 7470 tCO2e
2620 tCO2e
LULUCF
2010
200 2013

NZ ETS
34

20082012 1140 tCO2e

NZ ETS

2011 ETS

2013 3.1.3
ETS
2020 1990 10%
20%

3.1.3

EITE

CPRS
2
60% 90%
http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions/net-position/index.
html
(1) 2 (2)
(3) (4) LULUCF
(5)
90%
35

2010

2013 1.3%
2016

3.1.4

NZU 2tCO2e
12.5
9 7 2012
30

CER[
tCER lCER]
ERURMU AAU
2012

NZU NZU
AAU
NZ ETS

30
100%

36

AAU 3.1.5
NZ ETS EU ETS

MRV

3.1.5

GHG
2020 20 90

NZ ETS

CDM

NZ ETS 1990

CDM JI LULUCF 1%
EU ETS
OTC
NZ ETS 2080 tCO2e
1.492 Katherine Hamilton, Unna
Chokkalingam, and Maria Bendana, 2010, State of the Forest Carbon Markets 2009: Taking Root &
Branching Out. Ecosystem Marketplace, Washington (DC)
37

2010

NZU
1989
2008 1 1 NZU
NZ ETS
NZU
AAU
NZ ETS NZU
AAU
2009 60
NZU 14 10 52 AAU

NZU
2010 NZU
600 61 NZU 2010
NZ ETS
2010

NZ ETS
NZU 25

3.2

1990
NZU http://www.mightyriverpower.co.nz/News/Detail.
aspx?id=2288
38

CPRS GHG
ETS2009 2010 4 27

ETS 2012 CPRS

75% 2020 2000
5% 2 2010 2
CPRS
2009 8
RET
RET 2020 20%
2001
MRET
RECREC 40 37
27 47 tCO2e43 32 2011 1
RET

3.3

2010 3 12
GHG

ETS
ETS
2020 1990 25%

2050 1990 80%

39

2010

2011 4
2020
10%
6
2010

ETS

ETS

ETS
ER
REDD
2008 10 ETS
2009 7 715 521

2007 3%IEA
2008 GHG 12.82 tCO2e 1990
6%7% KM KM
20082012 GHG
2020
40

J-VETS
ETS

KM
70% CO2

ETS 2010 4 1

1400 1%
ETS

2020 2000
20%20122014 20022007
6% 8% 6% 20152020
17%

REC
ER 2010

1.3

3.4

K-G-L K-L

2009

41

2010

RGGI 62009 6

2009
11 2010
Kerry
Liberman
K-L

RGGI
2009 8.05 tCO2e 3.3
tCO2e EUA

2009

20082009

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008

2009

3.9

3.3

61.9

805.2

198.2

2178.6

/EPC

10.0

13.5*

3.4

4.5

33.5

60.8

4.4

1.2

69.2

41.4

306.7

49.8

2007 7 10 tCO2e 12%

42

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008

2009

6.8

4.9

15.4

29.0

104.1

143.4

8.8

7.1

5.3

14.9

46.6

104.5

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1.0

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4.8

5.9

5.5

4.6

1.5

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8.3

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3.8

3.4

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3.3

1.6

28.1

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149.9

880.1

642.5

2432.5

2009
CAR
2
CAR 3
180%CAR 51%
7.1 /
[ CCX

VCS ACR]
2009
CCX 2004
CCX 2009 40% 0.69
tCO2e 0.41 tCO2e 4.8 /
43

2010

0.8 / 2008 16%CCX

CCX

3.4.1

2009 6 26 2009
ACES[ Henry
Waxman Ed Markey ]
2020 2005
17%

20 20122020
40%
2018 1:1.25
7.6 10

2020 2005 15%

2050 2005 83%
2020 20%
REC
25 /MWh
2 5 8%
15%

EPA2010,EPA2010 1 2454

44

ETS 7

CAR

3.4.2

2009 2010
RGGI CAR
CRT
Kerry
GrahamLieberman
K-G-L
2010 5 12
APA
4
2020 2005 17%
2013 2016
15 5

11 2010
ACES

45

2010

WCI
32 AB32

2012

3.5

NAMA

GHG

2020 38.9%

Point Carbon, 2010
80%
40%
http://unfccc.
int/files/meetings/application/pdf/brazilcphaccord_app2.pdf
46

COP 16
2008

1 CBEEX
CO2
GHG
CBEEX CDM
VER 5 10 VER

2 TCX

2010 2

3 SEEE
CDM
CER
CO2 2020 2005
40% 45% 2020 15%
2005 4000 2005 13 http://unfccc.
int/files/meetings/application/pdf/chinacphaccord_app2.pdf
Bluenext
( CFEX)
47

2010

1 PAT
2011 9
714 2014 0.98
tCO2e
2REC 15GW
65GW 2011 REC

GHG GEI 2009

98 22% GHG

80% GHG
CDM
KCER
GHG
2020 30% CER
500tCO2e CDMISO IPCC
2020 2005 20% 25%
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/application/pdf/
indiacphaccord_app2.pdf
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http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/application/
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Small and Medium-size Enterprise

tCO2e

Ton of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

Temporary Certified Emission Reduction

UN United Nations
UNEP

SME

tCER

United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC
Change

116

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

VAT

Value-added Tax

VCS

Voluntary Carbon Standard

VER

Verified Emission Reduction

WB

World Bank

WTI

West Texas Intermediate

2010

2010

2010
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2011 4 14

117