INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS: INDIA, UNITED KINGDOM AND UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Qasim Mohd

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................3 OBJECTIVE ....................................................................................................................................3 COUNTRIES BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................3 GENERAL CONSIDERATION (POLITICAL RISK) ...................................................................4 ECONOMIC RISK ..........................................................................................................................9 CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................................................14 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..........................................................................................................................16

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Introduction In todays dynamic world competition has been increasing significantly which tends companies to move in different parts of the world that contains high risk. Investment in other countries requires perfect analysis and observation therefore country risk analysis is used as tool to avoid such risk. This report is aimed at analyzing country risk in terms of political and economic risk for which three countries are chosen from different parts of the world. Furthermore, an attempt is made to do comparative study for India, United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates. Finally, appropriate conclusion been given for those countries in order to classify the most attractive country for MNC to invest in. This report would help investors willing to invest in the country. Objectives To analyze country risk for India, United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates. To study different political and economical aspect for those three countries.

Countries Background India

Located in south-Asia and is seventh largest country by geographical area with population of 1.17 billion (CIA, 2011). It consists of 28 states and 7 union territories with main dependency on coal. The country is ranked second in farm output and is major exporter of agriculture products, software, wood, and leather. According to (IMF, 2010) India is the ninth largest in the world by nominal GDP and fourth by purchasing power parity. Despite fast economic growth India is facing high rate of unemployment and poverty (EconomyWatch, 2010). United Kingdom

Part of sovereign state situated in north-coast of continental Europe. It includes the island of Great Britain and one-sixth part of Ireland. One-third of the population, about 8.615 million, lives in London which remains the largest city in Europe. Natural resources of the nation consist of coal, oil, natural gas, limestone, lead, and silica (CIA, 2011). Mainly UK exports manufactured goods, fuels, machinery, and foodstuff. IMF classifies U.K as 1st world country with the seventh-largest economy by purchasing power parity and sixth-largest by nominal GDP.
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United Arab Emirates

Located in southeast of Arabian Peninsula, its is a federation of seven emirates formed on 2nd December 1971. Abu Dhabi is the capital of UAE which is a centre for political and cultural activities. According to U.S. Department of State (2011), among the total population 20% are native citizen and rest belongs to Asia and Europe. The country stands sixth in oil reserves and is the most developed economy in south Asia. UAE is the fiftieth largest economy purchasing power parity and is classified as a high-income developing country by World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Figure 1: Showing GDP (PPP) of selected countries

GDP (Purchasing Power Parity)

India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

Source: International Monetary Fund (2010)

General consideration (Political Risk) Government stability

Indias is a Democratic Republic forming a parliamentary system of government; it is divided into three parts legislative, executive and judiciary. Powers vested in legislative branch consisting president and prime minister. Currently India is regulated by Congress party since 2004, given that Dr. Manmohan Singh the prime minister rated 18th most influential people (Forbes, 2010) and Pratibha PATIL as president. Government seems to be stable as its been ruled by one party for quite a long period, however the fragmented parties within each states increases levels of bureaucracy ultimately slows down economic development.
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United Kingdom is parliamentary democracy where the government is elected into power by people to safe guard their life. Alongside it is constitutional monarchy (currently Queen Elizabeth II), who remains politically impartial with limited powers. Parliament is the heart of UKs political system which is the highest legislative authority. It has the responsibility to examine the work of government and approving new laws. A new government was formed on May 2010 with David Cameron as the prime minister and is the head of coalition Liberal Democrat government. United Arab Emirates is a sovereign, federal, precedential and elected monarchy comprising seven absolute monarchial emirates. The ruler of Abu Dhabi is the president of UAE and ruler of Dubai is the prime minister. There are no elections or political parties in UAE, power rest in seven hereditary sheikhs. Government takes various steps to improve its economy through privatization in real estate and many more, however oil companies are still public owned. They have signed agreement with WTO but the impact of policies of WTO is minimal in this region, the country has enhanced its trade due to its geographical position between Europe and Far East. As the country is ruled for a longer duration by one ruler, it states more stability compared to India and UK.
Table 1: Showing Government Structure of selected countries

Country

Type of Government

Country Head

Politically Powerful

India United Kingdom

Democratic Constitutional Monarchy

President Queen Elizabeth II

Prime Minister Prime Minister

United Arab Emirates

Monarchy

Hereditary Sheikhs

President

Source: World Fact Book, 2010

Foreign Trade Regulation

India has good investment platform which promote the entrance of foreign players into the market, through foreign direct investment. Government has focused on liberalization, openness, and transparency by providing export friendly environment through simplifying procedures on trade facilitation. In order to review the progress the policy is reviewed after the period of five
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year. On 19th April, 2007 some of the new policies were announced, exemption from service tax on services rendered abroad, tax on services rendered in India and utilized by exporters would be exempted. All these measures are taken to enhance competitiveness and increase Indian exports. In 2008, despite the global financial crisis, India attracted over US $ 25billion due to its flexible polices. The government has allowed 100% of foreign investment in hospitals and automatic route to boost the economy. Despite its small size UK is the fifth trading nation in the world. The government has recognized the importance of trade in developing long term growth and prosperity for UK. The country has made its policy more open for trading. Currently, David Cameron has promised to transform British foreign policy so that it is focused primarily on promoting UK businesses abroad (BBC, 2010). Within European Nation, UK is consistently pushing to run the common agricultural policy and has reduced tariffs levels across the borders. Under an agreement it has made dutyfree market for LCDs with third countries, and recently, it has made flexible procedures to trade with Singapore (WTO, 2011). To promote investment climate it has adopted privatization, however it is still public owned in transport and energy sectors. Finally, due to its flexible policies, UK attracts the highest foreign direct investment in European nation. Usually, flow of FDI is a good sign for any country as it enhance the economic growth. As a member of WTO and having free trade agreement throughout GCC, UAE has low rates of tariffs. Import duties are charged on products imported into UAE, at rates depending on nature of the product. There is 100% import duty on alcoholic beverages and 50% import duty on tobacco products (WTO, 2010). Machinery, equipment, and raw material are exempted from tariff, only on companies engaged in economic development project. Foreign parties cannot import for the purpose of resale and trade with Israel is prohibited. Moreover, UAEs Free Trade Zone policy has attracted many foreign trade investors within the country (EconomyWatch, 2011). Despite its small size the country is the second largest region after Saudi Arabia in attracting FDI with $73.4 billion investment (WTO, 2011). Corruption

Corruption rates have negatively affected the growth of GDP and FDI inflows within the country (KPMG, 2011). According to a report released by Global Financial Integrity India has
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lost a huge amount of money US$ 462 million in illicit financial flows owing to tax evasion and corruption. Corruption Perception Index 2010 ranked India at 87th position out of 178 countries. It slipped down in CPI Index compared to 2009 due to recent charges in Common Wealth games (World Bank, 2010). Whereas UK was ranked 20th and scored 7.6 (table 2), however it has dipped compared to previous years due to recent scandal of MPs expenses, high level of corruption in present in political parties, about 65.5% (Transparency International, 2010), and in public sector contracts. Besides this corruption is perceived to be minimal in UK which states a favorable sign for its economic growth. Lastly, CPI positioned UAE at 28 th which signifies less corruption and is 2nd best in GCC just behind Qatar. The country has reduced its corruption level after cracking down white-collar crime. According to anti-corruption watchdog UAE remains one of the most investment-friendly countries in the region.
Table 2: showing Corruption rate for selected countries

Rank 87 20 28

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

Source: Transparency International (2010)

Taxation Policy

India has well-developed tax structure and the authority to levy taxes is divided into direct and indirect taxes. Income tax ranges from 10%, to 30% for annual income up to 50000 and 150000 respectively. For domestic companies tax is levied at 35%, whereas for foreign companies its 45% on taxable income. To avoid double taxation India has entered into an agreement with over 83 countries and also bilateral investment protection with 50 countries. There is a tax holiday for 5 years and appropriate tax exemptions are given to export oriented companies. On the other hand, UK levies taxes mainly from direct and indirect tax. Largest revenue of government is collected from income tax, corporate tax, and value added tax. Every citizen native or expatriate, on an average, is subjected to pay tax up to 30% whereas for corporate is 28% (EconomyWatch, 2011). Double taxation is avoided by the country and the government is committed to provide its tax payers more clarity, predictability, stability and simplicity. Lastly, there is no personal, withholding and value added tax levied in UAE. Similarly no taxes are levied on corporate;
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however oil companies are eligible to pay 55% and banks 20% on taxable income. Municipal taxes are imposed on licensing of business, hotel and entertainment activities ranging from 5% to 10%. The country has entered into tax treaties agreement with several nations which would encourage foreign investors to invest.
Table 3: showing Corporate and Income Tax of Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

Corporate Tax 45% 28% 55% on oil companies& 20% on banks

Income Tax 30% 30% Nil

Source: World Fact Book, 2011

Attitude Of Consumers In Home Country

Nowadays Indian consumer comprises to purchase product of quality and having special features in it. People in India are interest to buy the products of MNC as they are less in cost, having brand image, good service, status quo etc. Its been noticed that people buy more durable product, e.g. refrigerator and television, from MNC compared to domestic companies. As India as has large amount of population and liberalized policy of Indian government creates a favorable platform to invest in the country. On the other hand, people in UK, demands for good quality products as the per capita income of country is more. Moreover, its been seen that consumers in UK mostly demands for domestic product instead of foreign product which could discourage FDI. Lastly, in UAE native consumers demand for trade mark commodities, however as the population of nationals is quite less and having high foreign population, this makes the attitude global and moderate for all MNCs in general. Economic risk: GDP Per Capita

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Figure 4: Showing Average GDP Per Capita of Selected Countries

GDP Per Capita

INDIA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Its one of the indicators of a countries economic performance and measures mean income of an individual. Per capita identifies wealth of population in a nation in comparison with others. A rise in GDP per capita signals growth of an economy and increased productivity. The table below reveals that, on an average Indias GDP per capita was lowest compared to UK and UAE this was due to large size of population coupled with high unemployment rates. However Indias per capita income was on a rising trend indicating infrastructure and economic development. In the year 2006/2008 all the three countries individual income rose owing to increase in FDI and FII inflows. But in 2009/2010 UK and UAE stated a sharp decline in per capita. UKs decrease in income was due to less government spending in manufacturing sector, whereas UAE individual income deteriorated as global financial crisis took place which led to sharp decline in oil prices and unexpected rise in population in 2009. Lastly, UAE per capita income resulted high pursuant to huge revenues from oil and gas sector coupled with massive construction boom. Finally, MNC would be attracted in UK as individual income is more and population is high than UAE which ultimately would their sales resulting in high profitability.

Table 4: Showing GDP per capita income for selected countries

Country India

2006 857

2007 1105

2008 1067

2009 1192

2010 1475

Average 1139

Rank III

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United Kingdom United Emirates Arab

40335 47634

46092 47757

43286 50727

35163 38960

36144 39625

40204 44941

II I

Source: World Bank, 2010

Balance Of Payment

Its the method that every country uses to monitor all international transactions at a specific period of time. BOP accounts all the trade conducted by the country to determine its inflows and outflows. The table below reveals that, on an average UKs BOP was lower than of India and UAE. The deficit in BOP for UK could be attributed to increase in national income coupled with devaluation of currency against Dollar, whereas Indias deficit was due to rise in imports of capital goods and metal scrap. During the year 2006-2008 UK and Indias BOP deficit affirmed an increasing trend, this was owing to export of lesser value product e.g. agriculture product and tobacco and high imports of oil product. High FDI inflows and global financial crisis in 2009 led to sharp decline in BOP of UK and India. On the other hand, UAE had a BOP surplus this was due to export of oil, gas and high value of real estate markets.
Table 5: Showing Balance of Payment for selected countries

Country India United Kingdom United Emirates Arab

2006 -36.87 -111 42.95

2007 -75.9 -134.2 48.21

2008 -129.1 -171.1 64.7

2009 -106.1 -127.7 42.2

2010 -126 -140.9 37

Average -94.794 -136.98 46.972

Rank II III I

Source: www.indexmundi.com

Exchange rates

It is the rate at which one currency is being exchanged with another, for instance Dollar exchange rate confirms the value of foreign currency and vice versa. Exchange rates are determined by foreign exchange market which is open for every type of buyers and sellers. Its been observed from the table that, India and UKs exchange rate were fluctuating as it is based on free-float system. On an average Indias exchange rate resulted high this could be due to BOPs deficit from past 30 years. UK and Indian currency appreciated in 2006/2007 given that
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there was remarkable rise in GDP per capita coupled with increase in FDI. Moreover, in 2008/2009 currency for UK and India depreciated owing to decrease in oil prices, global financial crisis, reduced interest rates and increased inflation. Lastly, UAE exchange rates were stable as its been pegged to Dollar and aggressive monetary policy that regulates domestic liquidity. In conclusion, MNC could be attracted to UK due to strong currency which ultimately could result in high profitability.
Table 6: Showing Exchange Rates of Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Emirates Arab

2006 45.300 0.542 3.673

2007 41.487 0.499 3.673

2008 43.319 0.530 3.673

2009 48.405 0.618 3.673

2010 46.163 0.639 3.673

Average 44.935 0.566 3.673

Rank III I II

Source: World Fact Book, 2010

Inflation rate
Figure 2: Showing Average Inflation Rate of Selected Countries

Average (2006-2010)
10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% INDIA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Inflation Rate

Inflation refers to a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy. It is caused by excessive money supply and decrease in value of money against standard currency which ultimately reduces purchasing the power. The table below reveals that, on an average Indias inflation rate was higher compared to UK and UAE. In 2008, inflation rate of all the three countries showed an increase owing to global financial crisis and extensive rise in the price of
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commodities. Whereas in 2009 UAEs inflation rate dipped tremendously than of UK, this was due to fall in oil prices, dropped $150 to $30 barrel, and also appreciation of US Dollar. However in the same year Indias inflation rate has increased as the government printed loads of money. India and UKs inflation rate rose in 2010 due to the rise in food prices and devaluation of currency. Finally, it is seen that UK had low and stable inflation rates than the other two countries which could attract MNC and rise in economic growth.
Table 7: Showing Inflation Rates For Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

2006 6.3% 2.3% 9.2%

2007 6.4% 2.3% 11.1%

2008 8.3% 3.6% 12.2%

2009 10.9% 2.1% 1.6%

2010 12% 3.3% 0.88%

Average 8.8% 2.7% 7.02%

Rank III I II

Source: www.indexmundi.com

Benchmark Interest Rates

Figure 3: Showing Average Benchmark Interest Rate of Selected Countries

Average (2006-2010)
6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% INDIA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

INDIA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

A minimum rate of return that investor will accept to invest in non-treasury security. Central bank employs such kind of rates for lending money to other commercial bank which influences mortgage rates. This helps to promote growth within an economy and keeps inflation under control up to certain limit. Table below shows that on average Indias benchmark interest rate was higher than the other two countries; this could be attributed to high inflation rates as seen
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above and slow economic growth. UKs interest rates dipped tremendously in year 2008/2009 due recession and increase in unemployment rates. Similarly UAE interest rates declined in 2008/2009 owing to huge decrease in inflation rates. Present low interest rates in United Kingdom could attract MNCs to a large extent which would boost up the economic growth and ultimately reduction in unemployment rates of the country.
Table 8: Showing Benchmark Interest Rates For Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

2006 6% 5% 5.5%

2007 6% 5.5% 4.25%

2008 5% 2% 1.5%

2009 3.25% 0.5% 1%

2010 5.25% 0.5% 1%

Average 5.1% 2.7% 2.6%

Rank III II I

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com

Foreign Direct Investment

Its the amount of inflows that a country receives which helps to boost up the economic growth. The table below shows that, on an average UAEs FDI inflows were low compared to India and UK this was due to a very small size of the country. Its been observed that UK had huge FDI IN 2006/2010 as the interest rates were low coupled with low inflation. Whereas, in year 2008/2009 India, UK and UAEs FDI declined owing to global financial crisis. Finally, India could be a good platform for MNC as the economy is covering up fast after recession.
Table 9: Showing FDI for Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

2006 20.3 154.1 12.8

2008 25.4 202.07 14.2

2008 43.4 93.5 13.7

2009 35.6 72.9 4.02

2010 24.1 43.9 3.9

Average 29.8 113.9 9.7

Rank II I III

Source: World Bank, 2011

Unemployment Rates

Unemployment refers to number of people without job but willing to work and represents unemployed people out of total labor force. High unemployment is considered to be a negative indication for an economy of a country. The figures in the table signifies that, on an average
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Indias unemployment rates was high in respect with other countries due to large population and high availability of workforce in agriculture sector. In the year 2006/2008 UKs unemployment rate has risen sharply as the government reduced their spending in private sector. Furthermore, India and UK stated an increase in rates from 2008/2010 owing to global financial breakdown. Lastly, unemployment rates in UAE were on increasing trend due to significant increase in national graduate and ineffective government policy. Hence it can be concluded that, foreign companies could be attracted to do business in India as its a developing economy and have relatively high skilled population with no jobs, who can work in lesser amount of salary.
Table 10: Showing Unemployment Rates of Selected Countries

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

2006 7.8% 2.9% 3.1%

2007 7.2% 5.3% 3.17%

2008 6.8% 5.6% 3.45%

2009 10.7% 7.6% 3.71%

2010 10.8% 7.9% 4.2%

Average 8.66% 5.86% 3.53%

Rank III II I

Source: www.indexmundi.com / www.tradingeconomics.com

Conclusion

In todays dynamic world competition has been increasing significantly which tends companies to move in different parts of the world having various branches, resulting in FDI. Investment in other countries requires exact analysis and observation as it contains risk to invest abroad. Hence, country risk analysis is used as tool to discern such risk. This tool assists the organization to decide whether to invest in that country or not.
Table11: Overview of Political Risk

Country India United Kingdom United Arab Emirates

Government Stability

Foreign Trade Regulation

Corruption Rates

Taxation Policy

Consumers Attitude In Home Country

Stable Stable Stable

A A B

C A A

B B A

A B A

Considering

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A: excellent, B: good, C: poor The above table reveals that the government was stable for all the three countries, however UAE is considered to be the most stable nation as its a monarchy economy been ruled by hereditary sheikhs for longer period of time. In terms of foreign trade regulation India and UK had more liberalized economy compared to UAE as high import duties are charged on some items. As UK and India, made their economy more open this resulted in high FDI inflows within the country. Corruption rates for UK and UAE were very less, whereas India had very high corruption rates as lot of scandal takes place, one of the recent one is Common Wealth Games. On the other hand, taxation policy in India was least competitive given that it charges 45% tax on corporate which would discourage MNC to invest in the country. Lastly, in UK consumers attitude was considered to be moderate as they prefer domestic companies also.

Figure 5: Overview of Economic Risk

Economic Risk
GDP Per Capita 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Unemployment Rates

Balance of Payment India United Kingdom Exchange Rates United Arab Emirates

Foreign Direct Investment

Interest Rates

Inflation Rates

Considering 1: excellent, 2: good, 3: poor

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The figure above reveals that GDP per capita was relatively higher in UAE and UK, whereas India had low per capita income mainly due to large amount of population and high dependency on agriculture sector. BOP for India and UK were deficit as the exported commodities were of lesser value, whereas UAEs BOP was in surplus due to export of high value product e.g. oil and gas. In terms of exchange rates UK currency was most competitive owing to high GDP per capita coupled with increase in FDI. Inflation rates were high in India compared to UK and UAE due to extensive rise in the price of commodities. As the interest rates were relatively lower in UK than the other two countries which affirmed high FDI in the country. Lastly, unemployment rates were higher in India compared to UK and UAE due to large amount of population. Hence it is concluded that, in terms of political and economic risk UK and UAE is considered to be a better option to invest, however due high unemployment rates in India and set up cost could result in high profitability for MNC.

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