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# TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FITTING OF TREND LINE BY LEAST SQUARES-STRAIGHT LINE AIM: To fit a straight line trend by least

squares method using MS-Excel. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the given time series data into the Excel sheet. Select the data without headings. Then click at the Chart Wizard button on the Standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in chart type and then select the second chart sub type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. STEP 2: Select Series option on the top and type the name of the series as observed data. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. STEP 3: Give the chart title, X-axis values and Y-axis values. Then press Next> button to get the next window. Finish button will be selected to get final graph of observed data. STEP 4: Put the cursor on one of the plotted dot and then right click the mouse. Select the option Add trend line in that drop menu, select the linear trend line among the Trend/Regression Type. Then select the option Options on the line to display the final trend line. STEP 5: Select the option Display Equation on the chart and then press OK button. The final trend line graph along with the fitted line will be displayed.

## FITTING OF TREND LINE BY LEAST SQUARES-STRAIGHT LINE Calculations:

Year 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 Production 77 88 94 85 91 98 90

## Trend Line Graph

120 y = 1.3764x - 2662.6 100

80 Production

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## Observed data Linear (Observed data)

40

20

0 1994

1996

1998

2000 Years

2002

2004

2006

CONCLUSION: Hence y = 1.376x 2662 is the best fit of Straight line for the given data.
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FITTING OF TREND LINE BY LEAST SQUARES-PARABOLA AIM: To fit a Parabolic trend curve of Second degree by least squares method using MS-Excel. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the given time series data into the Excel sheet. Select the data without headings. Then click at the Chart Wizard button on the Standard Bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the second Chart sub type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. STEP 2: Select Series option on the top and type the name of the series as Observed data. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. STEP 3: Give the chart title, X-axis values and Y-axis values. Then press Next> button to get the next window. Finish button will be selected to get final graph of observed data. STEP 4: Put the cursor on one of the plotted dots and then right click the mouse. Select the option Add trend line in that drop menu. Select the Polynomial (order 2) trend line among the Trend/Regression Type then select the option Options on the top line to display the fitted trend line. STEP 5: Select the option display Equation on the chart and then press OK button the final trend line graph along with the fitted second degree parabola will be displayed.

## FITTING OF TREND LINE BY LEAST SQUARES-PARABOLA Calculations:

Census 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 Population in Crores 25 25.1 27.9 31.9 36.1 43.9 54.7

## Parabolic Trend Curve

60 y = 0.0094x2 - 35.981x + 34483 50 40 Population 30 20 10 0 1900

## Observed data Poly. (Observed data)

1910

1920

1930

1940 Census

1950

1960

1970

1980

CONCLUSION: Hence y = 0.009x2 - 35.98x + 34483 is the best fit of Parabola trend for the given data.

## FITTING OF TREND LINE BY METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGES

AIM: To obtain the trend by the method of moving averages. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the given time series data into the Excel sheet. Select the data without headings. Then click at the Chart Wizard button on the Standard Bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the second Chart sub type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. STEP 2: Select Series option on the top and type the name of the series as Observed data. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. STEP 3: Give the chart title, X-axis values and Y-axis values. Then press Next> button to get the next window. Finish button will be selected to get final graph of observed data. STEP 4: Put the cursor on one of the plotted dots and then right click the mouse. Select the option Add trend line in that drop menu. Select the Moving Average (period 3) trend line among the Trend/Regression Type then press OK button. The final trend line graph along with fitted in a line will be displayed. STEP 5: The moving average period can be conform changed by the following procedure. Put the cursor on one of the plotted points and right click mouse. STEP 6: Select the option Add trend line in that drop menu. Change the Moving average (period 3) to Moving average (period 4) and then press OK button. The final trend line graph along with the changed moving average period line will be displayed.

## FITTING OF TREND LINE BY METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGES

YEARS 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 ANNUAL SALES 80 84 80 88 98 92 84 88 80 100 84 96 92 104 116 112 102 114 108 126

ANNUAL SALES
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 ANNUAL SALES 3 per. Mov. Avg. (ANNUAL SALES)

COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE METHOD AIM: To obtain the trend by the method of ratio to moving averages. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data according to time and seasons. STEP 2: Select the first time period with all its seasons, copy the values and paste it in the succeeding rows of columns A using the transpose function in paste special. STEP 3: Repeat this procedure for all time periods in order to generate a simple column of values. STEP 4: Repeat the procedure to compute moving averages using this data with interval equal to number of seasons. STEP 5: Position the newly computed moving appropriately against the relevant time periods. STEP 6: In column C generate trend eliminated values as (original value/trend value)*100 using appropriate cell references for the 1st cell and copy the formula for the whole column. STEP 7: Select the trend eliminated values corresponding to the 1st time period, copy and paste in a new table using transpose of past special. Repeat the procedure for he complete time series. STEP 8: Calculate the average of trend eliminated values for each season using the average function and correct cell references. STEP 9: Compute the overall average for the averages Seasonal Index= (seasonal average/overall average)*100.

## RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

YEARS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 YEARS 1996 Q1 5 8 11 17 14 QUARTER Q2 12 17 15 19 22 Yi Q3 17 14 12 13 12 Q4 6 10 13 15 17 CENTERED Yt RATIO (Yi/Yt)*100 * * 163.8554 52.74725 68.8172 144.6809 110.8911 78.43137 89.79592 121.2121 88.88889 88.13559 110.5691 120.6349 83.2 96 88.18898 137.5 * *

4 YR MOVING AVG

Q1 5 * * Q2 12 * * Q3 17 10 10.375 Q4 6 10.75 11.375 1997 Q1 8 12 11.625 Q2 17 11.25 11.75 Q3 14 12.25 12.625 Q4 10 13 12.75 1998 Q1 11 12.5 12.25 Q2 15 12 12.375 Q3 12 12.75 13.5 Q4 13 14.25 14.75 1999 Q1 17 15.25 15.375 Q2 19 15.5 15.75 Q3 13 16 15.625 Q4 15 15.25 15.625 2000 Q1 14 16 15.875 Q2 22 15.75 16 Q3 12 16.25 * Q4 17 * * SEASONAL INDICES BY METHOD OF RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE YEARS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1996 * * 163.8554 52.747253 1997 68.8172 144.6809 110.8911 78.431373 1998 89.79592 121.2121 88.88889 88.135593 1999 110.5691 120.6349 83.2 96 2000 88.18898 137.5 * * AVG 89.3428 131.007 111.7088 78.828555 102.7218 SI 86.97523 127.5354 108.7498 76.7396 400

CONCLUSION: Hence the Quarterly Seasonal Indices obtained by using the method of Ratio to Moving Average are 86.97523, 127.5354, 108.75, 76.74.
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COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY RATIO TO TREND METHOD AIM: To find the seasonal indices by Ratio to trend method. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet find average value for each year. Select the data of all quarters for all years without headings. Click at the small triangle adjacent to Auto sum on the standard bar. A small menu gets dropped. Select the option Average all averages will be displayed on next column. STEP 2: Select Tools and select Data Analysis then select Regression and then click OK. STEP 3: Specify the range of the data cells and click OK button. The whole regression analysis will be displayed on a new worksheet created by itself. Pickup the required fitted regression line and come back to our worksheet. STEP 4: Using these values of intercept and slope, one can find the values of Y-hat for all values of X (i.e. Years) using the relation Y-hat=69.75-2.45X. To calculate Y-hat type 69.75-2.45*(A3) and copy the same to the remaining cells. STEP 5: Select all the Y-hat value cells and right click the mouse, select Format cells select Number and Decimal point 2 then click OK button. STEP 6: Generate a new table with the Trend Values using the formulae under four quarters respectively in cells =C15-(-2.45/4), =G2-(-2.45/8), =G2-(-2.45/8), =D15+ (-2.45/4). Copy the same set of four quarters respectively to cells B16 to E19. All trend values will be displayed. STEP 7:Calculate the Trend eliminated values using the formulae (Original value/Trend value)*100 Type the formulae = (B2/B15)*100 in H15. Then copy the same to other cells from cell H15 to K19. Round the values to two decimals.

STEP 8: Find the quarterly averages using the Average function in and sum of averages also using function. Finally using the formulae (400/sum of averages)*quarterly average find the required Seasonal indices. For getting the Seasonal indices type the formulae = (400/399.96)*H20 in cell H21. Copy the same to get remaining cell of QII, QIII,QIV as H21 to K21. All seasonal indices will be displayed. SEASONAL INDICES BY RATIO TO TREND
YEARS 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Q1 68 70 68 65 60 Q2 60 58 63 59 55 Q3 81 56 68 56 51 Q4 63 60 67 62 58 AVG 68 61 66.5 60.5 56 67.3 64.85 62.4 59.95 57.5

INTERCEPT X VARIABLE

69.75 -2.45

TREND VALUES:
YEARS 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 TREND VALUES Q1 Q2 Q3 68.2 67.61 66.99 65.77 65.16 64.54 63.32 62.71 62.09 60.87 60.26 59.64 58.42 67.81 57.19 Q4 66.38 63.93 61.48 59.03 56.58

## TREND ELIMINATED VALUES:

YEARS 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 AVG SI TREND ELIMINATED VALUES Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 99.68 88.75 120.91 94.91 106.43 89.02 86.76 93.85 107.39 100.47 109.51 108.98 106.79 97.92 93.89 105.03 102.71 95.15 89.17 102.51 104.6 94.262 100.048 101.056 104.6104 94.26843 100.0586 101.0641

CONCLUSION: Hence the Quarterly Seasonal Indices obtained by using the method of Ratio to Trend are 104.6104, 94.26843, 100.0586, 101.0641.

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DESIGNS OF EXPERIMENTS ANALYSIS OF THE DATA OF ONE-WAY CLASSIFICATION USING ANOVA TECNIQUE AIM: To carry out the analysis of variance using ONE-WAY Classification to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet select the Tools in the menu bar and select Data Analysis in the drop menu. STEP 2: Select ANOVA single Factor in the window of Data Analysis. Select OK button. STEP 3: Specify the range of input data also specify that the data is grouped by rows. The default Level of Significance is 0.05. If it is different specify that also. After specifying all these details say OK. The output will be displayed. STEP 4: Based on the value of F Calculated and F-Critical conclusion is to drawn. CLASSIFICATION OF ONE-WAY ANNOVA:
ANOVA ONE WAY I 9 II 7 III 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 8 5 6

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## ANOVA :SINGLE FACTOR SUMMARY Groups I II III

Count

Sum 5 33 5 25 5 30

Average 6.6 5 6

## df MS F P-value F crit 2 3.266666667 1.849056604 0.199527489 3.885293835 12 1.766666667 14

CONCLUSION: Based on the values of F-Calculated (in the above table 1.849057) and FCritical (as per above table 3.88529), Conclusion is: F-Critical is greater than calculated value at 5% level of significance. So we accept the H0 and we conclude that all school scores are homogenous.

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ANALYSING THE DATA OF TWO-WAY CLASSIFICATION USING ANOVA TECHNIQUE AIM: To carry out Analysis of Variance using Two-Way factor. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. Select Tools in the drop menu. Select ANOVA: Two factor without replication in the window of Data Analysis select OK. STEP 2: Specify the range of input data also specify that the data is grouped by rows. The default level of significance is 0.05 output range can be specified. STEP 3: After specifying all these details select OK button. The output will displayed. STEP 4: Based on the value of F Calculated and F-Critical conclusion is to drawn.
RATERS A B C D E 1 99 96 95 98 97 2 70 65 60 65 65 SERVICE STATION 3 4 5 6 90 99 65 85 80 95 70 88 48 87 48 75 70 95 67 82 62 99 60 80 7 75 70 71 73 76 8 70 51 93 94 92 9 85 84 80 86 90 1 92 91 93 80 89

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Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication Su m 46 830 790 750 810 810 486 327 353 479 315 416 372 408 434 446

SUMMARY RATERS A B C D E

Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 6 6

## Average 4.6 83 79 75 81 81 81 54.5 58.833333 3 79.833333 3 52.5 69.333333 3 62 68 72.333333 3 74.333333 3

Variance 8.26666666 7 152.888888 9 215.333333 3 324 146.444444 4 214.444444 4 1538 671.5 957.766666 7 1399.36666 7 601.1 982.266666 7 731.2 1154 973.066666 7 1312.66666 7

SERVICE STATION

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

df 5 9 45

## MS 9498.6666 7 604.56296 3 91.362963

F 103.966272 1 6.61715582 9

## F crit 2.42208545 9 2.09575509 4

Total

59

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CONCLUSION: Here one F value (rows) is less than critical value i.e., F cal = 1.154007<Fcri=2.633534. Hence, i) we accept null hypothesis of rows. ii) We reject null hypothesis of columns. So we reject null hypothesis and we conclude that rows and columns are not homogenous.

ANALYSING THE DATA OF COMPLETELY RANDOMIZED DESIGN USING ANOVA TECNIQUE AIM: To carry out the Analysis of CRD to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet select the Tools in the menu bar and select Data Analysis in the drop menu. STEP 2: Select ANOVA single Factor in the window of Data Analysis. Select OK button. STEP 3: Specify the range of input data also specify that the data is grouped by rows. The default Level of Significance is 0.05. If it is different specify that also. After specifying all these details say OK. The output will be displayed. STEP 4: Based on the value of F Calculated and F-Critical conclusion is to drawn. COMPLETELY RANDOMIZED DESIGN:
A B 9 7 5 4 6 5 5 4 8 5

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Count 5 5 5

Sum 33 25 30

Average 6.6 5 6

df

## MS F P-value F crit 2 3.266667 1.849057 0.199527 3.885294 12 1.766667 14

CONCLUSION: From the above table we get the calculated F=12.10504 and Critical F=3.238867. Calculated F > Critical F. So we reject the null hypothesis. We conclude that A, B, C and D differ significantly. (Not homogenous)

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ANALYSING THE DATA OF RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGN ANOVA TECHNIQUE AIM: To carry out the analysis of RBD. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet select the Tools in the menu bar and select Data Analysis in the drop menu. STEP 2: Select ANOVA single Factor in the window of Data Analysis. Select OK button. STEP 3: Specify the range of input data also specify that the data is grouped by rows. The default Level of Significance is 0.05. If it is different specify that also. After specifying all these details say OK. The output will be displayed. STEP 4: Based on the value of F Calculated and F-Critical conclusion is to drawn. RANDOMIZED BLOCK DESIGN TREATMENTS
BLOCKS TREATMENTS 1 A 99 B 96 C 95 D 98 E 97

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

70 90 99 65 85 75 70 85 92

65 80 95 70 88 70 51 84 91

60 48 87 48 75 71 93 80 93

65 70 95 67 82 73 94 86 80

65 62 99 60 80 76 92 90 89

Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication SUMMARY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A B C D E Count Sum 5 485 5 325 5 350 5 475 5 310 5 410 5 365 5 400 5 425 5 445 10 10 10 10 10 830 790 750 810 810 Average 97 65 70 95 62 82 73 80 85 89 83 79 75 81 81 Variance 2.5 12.5 262 24 74.5 24.5 6.5 362.5 13 27.5 152.8889 215.3333 324 146.4444 214.4444

## P-value F crit 4.5E-07 2.152607 0.3472 2.633532

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CONCLUSION: From the above table we observe that both the F values are less than FCritical value. We conclude that treatments as well as blocks are not homogenous.

STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL CONSTRUCTION OF X-BAR, RANGE AND X-BAR, -CHART AIM: To construct the x-bar and range chart to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: Select the sample data. Select Auto sum () on the standard bar and select Average in the drop menu. Average o the first sample will be displayed in the next column. Copy the same formulae for all other samples corresponding cells. All x-bar will be displayed. STEP 3: Find its range; find the sample minimum and maximum. Select first sample data along with its average. Then Select Auto sum () on standard bar and select Max in the drop menu first sample maximum will be displayed. STEP 4: Select the Auto sum () on standard bar and select Min in the drop menu. First sample maximum will be displayed. The difference of these two to get

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the Range value of first sample copy all these formulae to other samples also. STEP 5: Once all sample means and sample ranges are available, using function in Auto sum () on standard bar one can calculate X-double bar and R-bar. STEP 6: Read the values of A2=0.729 D3=0 and D4=2.282 from tables in order to find the control limits corresponding to n=4. Compute the control limits for X-bar Chart: UCLx-bar = X-bar+A2*R-bar, LCLx-bar = X-bar- A2*R-bar, CLx-bar = X-bar R-Chart: UCLR = D4*R-bar LCLR = D3*R-bar CLR = R-bar Then copy the UCL, LCL, CL and X-bars values in four columns. STEP 6: Select the data of X-bar Chart with headings. Then click at the Chart Wizard button on the Standard bar. Select XY (scatter) in Chart type and then select the second Chart sub-type. Select Next> button to go to Step 2 of chart wizard. The Plotted graph on given data will be displayed. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. STEP 7: Give the chart title as X-bar Chart; X-axis values as Sample Number and Y-axis values as Sample Mean Select Next> button to get the next window. STEP 8: Select Finish button to get the final control chart. STEP 9: Proceeding on exactly same lines with range UCL, LCL, CL and same range also be constructed.

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X-BAR CHART:
X BAR CHART
25

SAMPLE MEAN

## 20 UCL 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 SAMPLE NUMBERS LCL CL SAMPLE MEAN

RANGE CHART:
RANGE CHART
30.000

SAMPLE RANGE

25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0.000 0 5 10 15 20 25 SAMPLE NUMBERS UCL LCL CL SAMPLE MEAN

CONCLUSION: We see that all the points are falling inside the control limits. We conclude that the process is in control.

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MEAN (X-bar) AND STANDARD DEVIATION () CHARTS AIM: To construct Mean and Standard deviation charts. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Select the sample data. Select Auto sum () on the standard bar and select Average in the drop menu. Average o the first sample will be displayed in the next column. Copy the same formulae for all other samples corresponding cells. All x-bar will be displayed. STEP 2: To compute sample variance there is no built in function. So, formula is used to compute it. Put the cursor against the first sample data, next to sample mea, and type the formula = (B3^2+C3^2+D3^2+E3^2)/4-(F3^2) to compute sample variance. Sample variance of the first sample will be displayed in that cell. Copy the same formula for all other samples corresponding cells. All sample variances will be displayed. STEP 3: All Sample mean and sample variance are available, using the Average function in Auto sum () on the standard bar one can calculate X-double bar and S-bar. STEP 4: Now we need to read values of A1, B3 and B4 from tables in order to find the Control Limits. Corresponding to n=4, A1=1.880, B3=0, B4=2.266. Compute the control limits for X-bar chart. UCLx-bar = X-bar + A1*S-bar LCLx-bar = X-bar- A1*S-bar Clx-bar = X-bar For -chart: UCLs =B4*S-bar LCLs =B3*S-bar Cls = S-bar

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STEP 5: Select the data of X-bar chart with headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the standard bar. Select XY (scatter) in chart type and them the second Chart sub-type. Then select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. The plotted graph o given data will be displayed. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. Give the chart title as Mean Chart, X-axis values as Sample Number and Y-axis values as Sample mean. Then press Next> button to get the next window. STEP 6: Since this being the last window in the process o chart construction, the Finish button will be selected to get the final control chart. CALCULATION OF MEAN AND S.D. CHARTS:

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MEAN CHART:
MEAN CHART
200 150

SAMPLE MEAN

CHART:
S CHART
300

SAMPLE VARIANCE

## 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 0 5 10 15 UCL LCL CL SAMPLE VARIANCE

SAMPLE NUMBERS

CONCLUSION: Some points are falling out of control limits. So the process is out of control.

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CONSTRUCTION OF p AND np - CHART WITH FIXED n AIM: To construct p-chart with fixed n. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data in the Excel sheet. Find the value of pi. To find the value of pi use the formula di/2000. Type the formula = B2/2000 in cell C2 then the value of pi of 1st sample is displayed in cell C2. Then copy the same formula for the other samples corresponding cells. Then all pi values will be displayed. Then find the average of pi (i.e., p-bar). STEP 2: Once p-bar is known using the formula p-bar+3*(SQRT ((0.16*0.84)/2000) and p-bar-3*(SQRT ((0.16*0.84)/2000) find control limits for p-bar chart in separate cells. Then copy the control limits, central line (p-bar) and the observed proportion of defectives (pi) in four columns. STEP 3: Select the data of p chart (fraction defectives chart) with headings. Then click at the Chart Wizard button on the Standard bar. Select XY (scatter) in Chart Type and then select the second Chart sub-type. Then select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. STEP 4: The plotted graph of given data will be displayed. Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. Give the chart title as P-Chart, X-axis values as Sample Numbers and Y-axis values as Fraction defectives. Then press Next> button to get the next window. STEP 5: Since, this brings the last window in the process of chart construction, the Finish button will be selected to get the final Control chart.

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## FRACTION DEFECTIVES CHART:

P CHART
FRACTION DEFECTIVES
0.2500 0.2000 Series1 0.1500 0.1000 0.0500 0.0000 0 5 10 15 20 25 SAMPLE NUMBERS Series2 Series3 Series4

CONCLUSION: As 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 12th etc are falling out of control limits. So, the production process is out of control.
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NP-CHART WITH FIXED n AIM: To construct np chart with fixed n to the given data. PROCEDIRE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: Select the observed number of defectives. To find their average (i.e., d-bar) select Auto sum () on standard bar and select Average in the drop menu. Average of observed number of defectives will be displayed below the data. STEP 3: Then find the p-bar by dividing d-bar with n=100. That is type the formula d-bar value/100 in the next cell to d-bar. The value o p-bar will displayed. STEP 4: Once p-bar and d-bar values are known using the formulae =d-bar+3*SQRT (100*p-bar*q-bar) and =d-bar-3*SQRT (100*p-bar*q-bar) find the control limits of np-chart in separate cells. Then copy the control limits, central line (dbar) and the observed number of defectives (di) in four columns. (If LCL<0 take LCL=0). STEP 5: Select the data of np-chart with headings. Then click at Chart Wizard button on standard bar. A chart window is displayed. Then select XY (scatter) in chart type and select second chart sub-type. Then click on Next> button to go to next window. STEP 6: Give the chart title as np-Chart, X-axis as Lot number and Y-axis as No of defectives and click on Next> button. Since this is last window in chart constructions say Finish. The chart is displayed.

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CONSTRUCTION OF np-CHART:

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NP CHART
NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 LOT NUMBERS CL LCL NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES UCL

CONCLUSION: Since all the points are falling inside the control limits. The process is in control.
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CONSTRUCTION OF p AND np-CHARTS WITH VARYING n AIM: To construct p-chart with varying n. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: Select the observed proportion of defectives. To find their average (p-bar). Select Auto sum () on standard bar and select Average in the drop menu. STEP 3: Average of the observed proportion of defectives will be displayed below the data. Once p-bar is known using the formulae =p-bar+3*SQRT ((p-bar*qbar)/ni) and =p-bar-3*SQRT ((p-bar*q-bar)/ni) find the control limits of p-chart in separate columns. CL is p-bar, (q-bar=1- (p-bar)). STEP 4: Select the data of p-chart with headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the standard bar. Select XY (scatter) in Chart Type and then select the fourth Chart Sub-type and click on Next> button. graph of selected data is displayed in this window. Click on Next> button. Give the chart title as pchart, x-axis as sample numbers and Y-axis as proportion of defectives. STEP 5: Then click on Next> button. Since this is last window in construction on chart click on Finish button. The graph will be displayed.

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## CONSRUCTION OF P-CHART WITH VARYING n:

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P CHART
FRACTION DEFECTIVES
0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 10 SAMPLE NUMBER 15 20 FRACTION DEFECTIVES UCL LCL CL

CONCLUSION: As the 4th, 7th, and 14th, sample points fall beyond the control limits, the production process is out of control.

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CONSTRUCTIONOF np- CHART WITH VARYING n AIM: To construct np-chart with varying n. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: In this chart since n is varying, one has to find p-bar, where p-bar(di/ni). So first select the observed no o defectives. Using Auto sum () on standard bar find the sum of no of defectives. STEP 3: Then select sample size data and find the sum o sample sizes in the same way. Then type the formula =3187/17790 in a cell separately. The value of p-bar will be displayed in that cell. Once p-bar value is known using the formulae =ni*p-bar+3*SQRT (ni*0.09*0.91) and =ni*p-bar-3*SQRT (ni*0.09*0.91). STEP 4: Find the control limits o np-chart in separate columns. We know that there doesnt exist any central line for this chart. The control limits and the given data along with computation of p-bar. STEP 5: Select the np chart data and click on chart wizard on standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the Fourth Chart sub-type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. The plotted graph o f given data will be displayed. STEP 6: Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. Give the chart title as np-chart, X-axis as Sample Numbers and no of defectives on Y-axis. Then press Next> button to get the next window. This brings the last window in this process o f chart constructions, Finish button will be selected to get the final Control chart.

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## CONSTRUCTION OF np-CAHRT WITH VARYING n:

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NP CHART
NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 5 10 15 SAMPLE NUMBERS LCL NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES UCL

CONCLUSION: Since 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, 9th and 10th points falls outside the control limits. So, the process is out of control.

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CONSTRUCTION OF C-CHART AND U-CHART AIM: To construct C-chart to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet select the observed number of defects. Select Auto sum () on the standard bar and select Average in the drop menu. Average of the observed number o f defects (C-bar) will be displayed. STEP 2: Once c-bar value is known using the formulae =c-bar+3*SQRT (C-bar) and =c-bar-3*SQRT (C-bar) find the control limits o f c-bar chart in separate cells. Then copy the control limits and central line (c-bar) in the adjacent columns o f observed no of defects (ci). STEP 3: In this example LCL computed value is negative, 0 is taken as its LCL. To construct the control chart, select the data of c-chart along with headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the Fourth Chart sub-type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. The plotted graph o f given data will be displayed. STEP 4: Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. Give the chart title as C-chart, X-axis as Sample Numbers and no of defectives on Y-axis. Then press Next> button to get the next window. This brings the last window in this process o f chart constructions, Finish button will be selected to get the final Control chart.

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CALCULATIONS OF C-CHART:

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C- CHART
NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 SAMPLE NUMBERS CL LCL NUMBER OF DEFECTIVED UCL

CONCLUSION: We observe that 1sr, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th etc. the process is out o f control.

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CONSTRUCTION OF U-CHART: AIM: To construct U-chart to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: Select the observed number of defects. To find their average u-bar select Auto sum () on standard bar and select average in drop menu. Average of the observed no of defects will be displayed below the data. Once u-bar is known using the formulae =u-bar+3*SQRT (u-bar/10) and =u-bar-3*SQRT (ubar/10) find the control limits of u-chart in separate cells. Then copy the control limits and central line u-bar in the adjacent columns of observed number of defects. STEP 3: To construct the control chart, select the data of u-chart along with headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the Fourth Chart sub-type. Select Next> button to go to step 2 of chart wizard. The plotted graph o f given data will be displayed. STEP 4: Move to the subsequent window by choosing Next> button. Give the chart title as U-chart, X-axis as Sample Numbers and no of defects on Y-axis. Then press Next> button to get the next window. This brings the last window in this process o f chart constructions, Finish button will be selected to get the final Control chart.

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CALCULATIONS OF U-CHART:

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U CHART
NUMBER OF DEFECTS
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 SAMPLE NUMBER 15 20 CL NUMBER OF DEFECTIVES UCL LCL

CONCLUSION: As the 4th, 6th and 11th sample points fall beyond the UCL and the sample points 1st, 2nd, 7th and 9th sample points fall below the LCL, the production process is out o f control.

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CONSTRUCTION OF OC CURVE FOR SINGLE SAMPLING PLAN AIM: To construct the Operating Characteristic (OC) Curve. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: To construct OC curve a number of values for p are considered such that AQL and LTDP are also covered for each value of p acceptance probability. Pa is calculated. pa = p (d<=c) where d ~P (=n*p) then the graph of p values pa is called the Operating Characteristic (OC) curve. STEP 2: Enter the value of p into the Excel sheet. Then compute the values of for all values of p using the formulae n*p put the cursor in the next column and type the formula =75*B3. The first value o f will be displayed. Copy the same to remaining cells of the same column so that value corresponding to all values will be displayed. To compute acceptance probability pa put the cursor in a cell in the same row of first value of p and corresponding . Click at the small triangle adjacent to Auto sum () on standard bar. A small menu gets dropped. Select the option more functions. STEP 3: A dialogue box will appear under Category select Statistical and under function select Poisson say OK. STEP 4: Specify the value of x as the value of c specify the cell address o f for mean and give true for cumulative to get cumulative probability up to X value. If false is given it display the individual probability for Poisson distribution at X=C. STEP 5: Say OK the acceptance probability will be displayed in that cell. Copy the same to other cells also to obtain acceptance probability for remaining value of p. STEP 6:Select the value of p and pa along with headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in Chart type and then select the second chart type.
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STEP 7: Give the title as OC curve, X-axis as Quality Level and Y-axis as Acceptance probability. Now say Next> Finish button will be selected to get final OC curve.

OC CURVE
1.2000

ACCEPTENCE PROBABILITY

## CONCLUSION: Thus an Operating Characteristic curve is obtained to the given specifications.

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VITAL STATISTICS CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLETE LIFE TABLES AIM: To construct the complete life table. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: Type the formulae in cells C4, D4, E4 and F4 as =B4-B5, =1-E4, =B5/B4, =G3-(1/2) respectively. Copy the same formulae to the remaining cells of the same column. In cell R4C7 first value o Tx is given in the problem. So type the formulae =G4-F4 in cell G5 and copy it the remaining cells of columns for the value o f Tx. STEP 3: Compute the value of ex0 type the formulae =G4/B4. Copy the same to the remaining cells to get rest of the values of ex0. CALCULATION OF LIFE TABLE:
x lx dx=lx-lx+1 230 210 195 190 215 210 215 225 230 240 px= lx+1/lx 0.9971011 0.9973455 0.9975285 0.9975859 0.9972617 0.997318 0.9972468 0.9971108 0.997038 0.9969 qx = 1- px 0.002899 0.002655 0.002471 0.002414 0.002738 0.002682 0.002753 0.002889 0.002962 0.0031 Lx = 0.5(lx+lx+1) 79225 79005 78802.5 78610 78407.5 78195 77982.5 77762.5 77535 77300 Tx+1 = Tx- Lx 3887660 3808435 3729430 3650628 3572018 3493610 3415415 3337433 3259670 3182135 ex0 = Tx/ lx 49 48.14101 47.26781 46.38368 45.49471 44.61826 43.73691 42.85628 41.97901 41.10223 10 79340 11 79110 12 78900 13 78705 14 78515 15 78300 16 78090 17 77875 18 77650 19 77420 20 77180

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INDEX NUMBERS COMPUTATION OF ALL WEIGHTED INDICES AIM: To compute all Weighted indices. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: In the usual notation base year price and quantity are represented by poj and qoj respectively. Similarly current year price and quantity are represented by pij and qij respectively. STEP 3: Compute all the six weighted indices one has to compute the quantities. Laspeyres Index number (P01): P01=p1q0/p0q0 Paasaches Index Number (P01): P01= (p1q1/p0q1)*100 Drobish-Bowleys Index Numbers (P01): P01= {[(p1q0/p0q0) + ((p1q1/p0q1)]/2}*100 Marshall Edgewoths Index number (P01): P01= {(p1q0+p0q0)/p0q0 + p0q1)}*100 Fishers Index Numbers (P01): P01= {SQRT [(p1q0/p0q0) * (p1q1/p0q1)]}*100

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CALCULATION OF WEIGHTED INDICES: Base year price quantity 10 40 12 25 15 10 20 5 25 3 Current year price quantity 12 50 15 20 20 12 30 2 40 5

commodity A B C D E

Base year A B C D E

Current year p1q0 480 375 200 150 120 1325 p1q1 600 300 240 60 200 1400 p0q0 400 300 150 100 75 1025 p0q1 500 240 180 40 125 1085

## commodity price(p0) quantity(q0) price(p1) quantity(q1)

10 12 15 20 25

40 25 10 5 3

12 15 20 30 40

50 20 12 2 5

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COMPUTATION O FCOST LIVING INDEX NUMBER AIM: To calculate the cost of living index number for current year. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: Compute cost of living index by computing two quantities (p1*q0) and (p0*q0). STEP 3: Ratio of these two multiplied by 100 gives the required index. COMPUTATION OF COST LIVING INDEX NUMBER Base year Price Quantity 10 13 15 18 12 15 10 11 6 19 Current year Price 14 22 15 10 9

commodity A B C D E

commodity A B C D E

## p0*q0 130 270 180 88 114 782

Cost of living Index no by Aggregate Expenditure Method=(p1*q0/p0*q0)*100 =138.6 CONCLUSION: Hence the cost of living index number by Aggregate Expenditure method is 138.6
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FAMILY BUDGET METHOD AIM: To calculate cost of living index by family budget method. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: Cost of living index is computed by computing price relative P, where P= (current yr price/Base yr price)*100. Now compute (P*W). Then find W. STEP 3: Ratio of (P*W) and W gives the required index. CALCULATIONS: Item Weight Base Current year year Price Price Wheat 7 30 27 Barley 6 27 28 Oats 1 25 27 Potatoes 8 18 13 Sugar 3 10 15 Item Weight Base year Price 30 27 25 18 10 Current year Price 27 28 27 13 15 Price relatives 90.0 103.7 108.0 72.2 150.0 P*w

7 6 1 8 3

## 630 622.2 108.0 577.8 450.0 2388.0

Cost of living Index no by Family Budget Method=(pw/w) =95.52 CONCLUSION: Hence the cost of living index number by Family Budget method is 95.52
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BASE SHIFTING AND DEFATION BASE SHIFING: AIM: To shift the base year from 1987 to 1993 and find the index number. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: For shifting the base of a series of index numbers, the new base year index is t be considered. To get the resulted index numbers we divide every given index number in to old series by new base year index number and then multiply by 100. Shifted base index numbers are obtained. STEP 3: Index number in the series is to be multiplied by (100/400) to get shifted base index number. To do so in Excel enter the formula = (100/400)*B3. Copy the same formula to all other cells. New base index number will be displayed. CALCULATIONS
Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Index nos. 100 93 98 103 102 103 110 114 114 115 116 117 120 124 124 129

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Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Index nos. 100 93 98 103 102 103 110 114 114 115 116 117 120 124 124 129

Index nos. with new base 87.71929825 81.57894737 85.96491228 90.35087719 89.47368421 90.35087719 96.49122807 100 100 100.877193 101.754386 102.6315789 105.2631579 108.7719298 108.7719298 113.1578947

## CONCLUSION: Hence the base is shifted from 1987 to 1993.

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DEFLATION AIM: To find the deflated wages and purchasing power of the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into Excel sheet. STEP 2: To compute Real wage or Deflated wage one has to divide income by index number and multiplied with 100. STEP 3: Type = (B16/C16)*100. To get the purchasing power of rupee one has to divide deflated income or wage by actual income or wage. To calculate type the formula =D16/B16. STEP 4: The first deflated wage and purchasing power of rupee in year 1985 will be displayed. STEP 5: Copy the same formulae to the other cells so that for all six years deflated wages and purchasing power of rupee will be displayed. CALCULATIONS:

## Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Index no. 100 107.6 106.6 107.6 116.2 118.9 119.8 120.2

Money wage 119 133 144 167 175 184 189 194

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## Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Index no. 100 107.6 106.6 107.6 116.2 118.9 119.8 120.2

Money wage 119 133 144 167 175 184 189 194

Real wage 119 123.605948 135.084428 155.204461 150.60241 154.751892 157.762938 161.397671

Purchasing power of money 1 0.92936803 0.938086304 0.92936803 0.860585198 0.841042893 0.834724541 0.831946755

CONCLUSION: The deflated wages (real wages) and purchasing power are computed.

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DEMAND ANALYSIS CONSTRUCTION OF LORENZ CURVE AIM: To construct Lorenz curve to the given data. PROCEDURE: STEP 1: Enter the data into the Excel sheet. STEP 2: First we need to compute proportion of p and q to the given total. Then compute the cumulative proportions of p and cumulative proportion into percentages. Add an additional column with the same percentage of p and zero as the first value of p, q and the additional columns for additional column give the headings as p=q STEP 2: Select the data of p, q without headings. Then click at the Chart wizard button on the Standard bar. Select XY (Scatter) in chart type and select third sub-type. STEP 3: Select Next> button to go to next window. Select Series button on the top of the window and give heading to the series as % of income and for series as p=q. STEP 4: Give the title as Lorenz Curve X-axis values as % of people and y-axis values as % of their income. Select Next> to go to the next step of Lorenz Curve construction select Finish button will get the final Lorenz Curve.

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CALCULATIONS:
No. of Assesed (p) 16361 43498 60032 19835 17583 8550 3779 1178 312 127 60 49 34 12 171410 % of p 10 25 35 12 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total income Assesed (q) 42266 204483 383320 179451 217018 161809 117902 54294 19250 9757 5423 10623 6323 2929 1414848 Cumulative of p 0 10 35 70 82 92 97 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Proportion of p 0.095449507 0.253765825 0.350224608 0.115716703 0.102578613 0.049880404 0.022046555 0.006872411 0.001820197 0.000740914 0.000350038 0.000285864 0.000198355 7.00076E-05 Proportion of q 0.029873174 0.144526479 0.27092663 0.126834119 0.153386088 0.114364935 0.08333192 0.03837444 0.013605702 0.006896147 0.003832921 0.007508227 0.004469031 0.002070187

% of q 3 15 27 13 15 11 8 4 1 1 0 1 1 0

## p=q 0 10 35 70 82 92 97 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

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Lorenz Curve
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Series1 Series2

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Solution of LPP by simplex method using TORA Find the maximum value of z=5x1+7x2 Subject to Constraints: x1+x24 3x1-8x224 10x1+7x235 Non-negative Constraints: x1, x20 using Simplex Method. 1. Enter into the tora window. 2. You will find click here button, click on it. Main Menu window will open. 3. Select linear programming from that window, then select goto input Screen. 4. Now linear programming window will open. 5. Enter program title as linear programming problem, then number of variables as 2 and number of constraints as 3 press enter key. 6. Then input Grid-linear programming box will open, fill it and press Solve menu. 7. Press Yes/No in Save dialog box. 8. In Solve Modify Window Select Solve problem-> Algebraic -> Iterations-> All-Slack Starting Solution (Simplex Method). 9. Now click on go to output Screen. 10.It will display solution as beside. Conclusion:-Max Z=28, x2=4

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Finding solution of LPP using Big M & Two phase method Find the maximum value of Z=5x1 +8x2 Subject to Constraints: 3x1+2x23 x1+4x24 x1+x25 Non-negative Constraints: x1,x20 using Two phase Method. 1. Enter into the Tora window . 2. You will find click here button, click on it. Main Menu window will open. 3. Select linear programming from that window, then select go to input Screen. 4. Now linear programming window will open. 5. Enter program title as linear programming problem, then number of variables as 2 and number of constraints as 3 press enter key. 6. Then input Grid-linear programming box will open, fill it and press Solve menu. 7. Press Yes/No in Save dialog box. 8. In Solve Modify Window Select Solve problem-> Algebraic -> Iterations-> Two phase Method. 9. Now Click on go to output Screen. 10.It will display solution as beside. Conclusion:-Max Z=-40, x2=5.

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Find the minimum value of Z=-2x1-x2 Subject to Constraints: 3x1+x2=3 4x1+3x26 x1+2x24 Non-negative Constraints: x1,x20 using Big M Method. 11.Enter into the tora window. 12.You will find click here button, click on it. Main Menu window will open. 13.Select linear programming from that window, then select goto input Screen. 14.Now linear programming window will open. 15.Enter program title as linear programming problem, then number of variables as 2 and number of constraints as 3 press enter key. 16.Then input Grid-linear programming box will open, fill it and press Solve menu. 17.Press Yes/No in Save dialog box. 18.In Solve Modify Window Select Solve problem-> Algebraic -> Iterations-> M Method. 19.Now click on goto output Screen. 20.It will display solution as beside. Conclusion:-Min Z=-2.6, x1=0.40, x2=1.8

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Finding Optimum solution of transportation problem using North west corner rule, Matrix minima and VAM for IBFS Solve the following Transportation problem Rows/col A B C Availability I 6 8 4 14 II 4 0 8 12 III 1 2 6 5 Requirement 6 10 15

1. Enter into the tora window. 2. You will find click here button, click on it. Main Menu window will open. 3. Select transportation problem from that window, then select go to input Screen. 4. Now transportation model window will open. 5. Enter program title as transportation problem, then number of sources as 3 and number of destinations as 3 press enter key. 6. Then input Grid-transportation box will open, fill it and press Solve menu. 7. Press Yes/No in Save dialog box. 8. In Solve Modify Window Select Solve problem -> Iterations-> North West corner (or) Matrix minima (or) VAM Method. 9. Now click on goto output Screen. 10.It will display solution as beside. Conclusion:- x13=14, x21=1, x22=10, x23=1, x31=5, total objective value=73

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## Solution of Assignment problem Solve the following Assignment problem R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 H1 5 3 4 7 1 H2 2 3 7 6 5 H3 4 1 5 2 4 H4 6 8 1 2 3 H5 4 2 5 7 1

1. Enter into the tora window. 2. You will find click here button, click on it. Main Menu window will open. 3. Select transportation problemfrom that window, then select goto input Screen. 4. Now transportation model window will open. 5. Enter program title as Assignment problem, then number of sources as 5 and number of destinations as 5 press enter key. 6. Then input Grid-transportation box will open, fill it with given values and demand and supply as 1s then press Solve menu. 7. Press Yes/No in save dialog box. 8. In Solve Modify Window Select Solve problem -> final solution 9. Now click on goto output Screen. 10.It will display solution as beside. Conclusion: - minimum cost=8

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