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paper is to examine the process of financial sector liberalisation and the role it
The process of financial sector liberalisation was embarked upon with good intentions in mind but today the debate rages on as to its role in the collapse of the Jamaican financial sector. While there are compelling arguments linking liberalisation to the decline of the financial sector, others argue that other factors, such as the ineptitude of managers and directors were solely responsible or played just as important a role. The purpose of the study is to examine whether the objectives of the Financial Sector Reform Program (FSRP) were achieved, to outline the impact of liberalisation on the system and to look at other factors that could have contributed to its decline. The massive fallout in the financial sector saw the intervention of the Jamaican Government through the Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC). With the important role played by this organisation, its projected impact on the Jamaican economy and its budgetary resources in the years to come, the paper would not have been complete without an appreciation of Governments bailout plan. Many other countries (developed and developing alike) have undergone the process of the financial liberalisation. examined. To establish some parallel with the Jamaican experience, similar reforms in other regions (mainly Japan) have been
research will not only prove useful in providing a better understanding of financial sector liberalisation in Jamaica and its role in the banking crisis, but also
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in developing appreciation of current trends in the sector and broader macroeconomic environment. The information will prove useful to academics, bank personnel, and even to the regulatory bodies.
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Chapter 2
Financial Systems
(1) Introduction
The paper as outlined in the first chapter examines the collapse of the Jamaican financial system and the role played by liberalisation in its demise. This chapter puts financial systems and the role of its functional units into perspective and describes briefly the regulation process. Oftentimes, financial systems are regulated to the point where they prevent free interplay of market forces. The process of economic liberalisation, which is used to free these forces, is also a focal point of this chapter. commenced in 1985. Liberalisation of the finance sector in Jamaica The latter half of the chapter looks at its historical
development going back to the 1960s and up to 1991. The year 1991 is used as a marker, as the second phase of the liberalisation process (as will be shown) commenced at just around that time.
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Financial Systems
Indirect Finance
Financial Intermediaries
FUNDS
FUNDS
FUNDS
FUNDS
Financial Markets
FUNDS
Direct Finance
As shown in Exhibit 1, funds flow from lenders to borrowers either directly or indirectly. In direct finance, funds are borrowed directly from lenders by selling them securities (claims on the borrowers future income or assets). The indirect method involves a middleman or financial intermediary that stands between the lenders (savers) and borrowers (spenders).
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Financial Systems
Types of Financial Markets Debt and Equity Primary and Secondary Exchanges and Over-the-Counter Money and Capital
Types of Financial Intermediaries Depository Institutions (Banks) Commercial Banks Savings & Loan Associations Mutual Savings Banks Credit Unions Contractual Savings Institutions Life Insurance Companies Pension Funds Fire and Casualty Insurance Companies Investment Intermediaries Finance Companies Mutual Funds Money Market and Mutual Funds
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Financial Systems
Encourage home ownership to develop a more politically involved electorate, more responsible citizens and, ultimately, a more stable society.
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Financial Systems
Features of Liberalisation Liberalise Trade and Promote Exports Deregulate industry and commerce Reform finance sector institutions - removal of ceilings on interest rates and selective credit controls Reduce subsidies Free Prices Restructure and/or sell off state-owned enterprises Reduce the budget deficit, by cutting public expenditure and maximizing tax revenue Reduce the numbers of civil servants Devalue the currency and liberalise foreign exchange dealing
Opinion Formers and Policy Makers Politicians Ministries or Agencies Political Parties
Implementation Agencies Government Departments The Central Bank Commercial and Investment Banks
Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) Representatives of external agencies The Central Bank Government Advisors
Agencies The Stock Exchange Managers in State Enterprises Private Sector Managers
Academic Institutions
The Press
Financial and Regulatory bodies responsible for market supervision Economic development agencies Taxation Authorities Private Consultancy Companies Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development and NGOs Ministries and other agencies concerned with social safety net provision
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Financial Systems
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Financial Systems
While the financial intermediaries were very active in Jamaica in the mid-1980s, financial markets were virtually non-existent. To give an idea, the Jamaica Stock Exchange which offered an opportunity to trade stocks, only operated for two trading days. Further, the simple process of transferring stocks was cumbersome. The process was badly in need of simplification in terms of the length of the process and the steps involved, such as adjusting stock registers and issuing new certificates.
(7) Historical Perspective (1960s to 1991) The Financial System in the 1960s
From even before the 1960s, the Jamaican financial system was already taking shape (See Exhibit 4). The first institutions to emerge were commercial banks followed by companies specialising in mortgage financing. With the 1960s coming to an end, commercial banks, trust companies, building societies, life insurance companies, credit unions were the dominant financial intermediaries in the sector. A Government Savings Bank set up initially to offer a savings option and later to invest in Local Registered Stocks issued by the Government of Jamaica also played an important role during this period.
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Financial Systems
Early 196os The Central Bank, Life Insurance Companies, Trust Companies, and Building Societies.
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1969 Merchant Banks and Development Banks NB. Commercial Banks were established in 1836
Commercial Banks
Commercial banks were the first financial intermediaries to operate in the Jamaican financial sector and by 1961 the operations were well established. They offered current account facilities, time and savings deposits, and loans and were particularly active in financing agriculture, imports, and hotel development. Commercial banks operated under the Banking Act (revised 1961 and 1992) and were (and still are) supervised by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ).
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Financial Systems
Merchant Banks
Merchant banks provided medium and long-term financing for the business sector in particular and also played an important role in the development of the money market. The activities of merchant banks were supervised by the BOJ, initially through the Protection of Depositors Act and then later, the Financial Institutions Act (1992). Merchant banks remain under the jurisdiction of the BOJ.
(9) Summary
A clear picture of financial systems and the liberalisation process in general has been provided, along with an insight to the historical background of the Jamaican financial sector. The next chapter will investigate this period further and details its structural characteristics revealing the existence of distortions and inefficiencies that retarded the development of the financial sector.
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CHAPTER 3
Distortions and Inefficiencies in the Financial Sector
(1) Introduction
This chapter discusses distortions and inefficiencies in the financial sector up to 1991. The chapter then outlines the structural characteristics of the Japanese financial system and makes comparisons with those that existed in the Jamaican context. This provides an important insight as Japan is one of the worlds most advanced industrialised nations. Finally, the objectives of the liberalisation process that were introduced to eliminate the distortions and inefficiencies in the Jamaican financial sector are examined.
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result of the non-existence of tradable financial instruments. Without these, there were minimum investment opportunities for investors.
In the case of the former (credit ceilings), commercial banks began circumventing credit ceilings by shifting loans and deposits to non-bank affiliates in the interest of maintaining their profitability. constrained by reserve and capital requirements. These institutions were less
SOURCE: Trevor Evans, Carlos Castro and Jennifer Jones,, The Impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the public sector in Jamaica, Chapter 3, Structural Adjustment and the Public Sector in Central America and the Caribbean , 1995 (Cries, Managua,, 1995), Portion extracted from p. 113.
The regime involved a statutory savings deposit floor rate that meant commercial banks offered rates that were not truly market-determined. This was compounded by the fact that two (2) commercial banks (Bank of Nova Scotia and National Commercial Bank) controlled 70% of the market share and under
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such a regime, they could maintain their status quo as a result of the security their sheer size projected.
Year 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1989/90 1990/91
SOURCE: Trevor Evans, Carlos Castro and Jennifer Jones,, The Impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the public sector in Jamaica, Chapter 3, Structural Adjustment and the Public Sector in Central America and the Caribbean , 1995 (Cries, Managua,, 1995), Portion extracted from p. 113.
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The growing ability of the black market to divert FX from the formal network attested to the non-market-clearing rate offered in the official system. In an attempt to ease the demand for US dollars in the official system and to reduce the dependency on the informal market, Special Retained Accounts were introduced during 1981. Special Retained Accounts allowed approved importers to hold foreign currency accounts in commercial banks. During the same period, no funds licences were issued by The Trade Board to allow payments for imports from balances (typically from export proceeds) sourced by the importer. With these licences, importers did not have to wait on the official system to fulfil their FX requirements. These proved unequal to
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the task of easing pressure for US dollars in the official system and lay the basis for a formalized parallel market.
entailed the co-existence of two rates - an official rate and a parallel rate. The official rate was set by the BOJ and used for all official debt transactions, essential imports and converting export proceeds. All remaining transactions such as business travel attracted a parallel rate of exchange determined by each commercial bank on a daily basis. In May of 1983, a CARICOM rate of exchange (fixed at US$1 to J$2.25) was introduced into the mix to be used in CARICOM transactions. The effectiveness of the parallel system was impeded by the fact that over time the parallel market placed increasing pressure on inflows still subject to an official rate. There also continued to be a wide disparity between the official and parallel rates (see Exhibit 7). Date 10/1/83 31/1/83 26/2/83 41/3/83 29/4/83 18/5/83 08/6/83 30/6/83 29/7/83 30/8/83 Official Rate($J) $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 $1.78 Parallel Rate ($J) $2.45 $2.76 $2.80 $2.75 $2.76 $2.76 $2.71 $2.71 $2.71 $2.96
Exhibit 7 The Parallel Market System Official & Parallel Rates (Jan to Aug 1983)
SOURCE: The Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
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In November of 1983 all three rates (official, parallel and CARICOM) were unified at US$1 to J$3.00 and in March 1984, an auction regime was implemented. The auction system for establishing daily FX rates that was introduced in December 1983 remained in effect until October 1989. The system was successful at first, as there was a period of relative stability between November 1985 and April 1989 when the rate was approximately US$1.00 to J$5.50. However, all this time, pressure was building on external payment arrears that ultimately led to devaluation pressures. Instead of responding, the Government was insistent on its existing auction system. This facilitated the persistence of an unrealistic exchange rate and fed the growth of a FX black market. The growth in the black market was blamed on the publics loss of faith in governments ability to operate a FX market. The government eventually yielded and suspended the Auction system and adjusted the rate to US$1.00 to J$6.50 in November 1989. However, devaluation pressures continued and by 1 February 1990, the rate had depreciated to US$1.00 to J$7.00.
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building societies and two (2) merchant banks were added to the list of authorised dealers. This meant that up to 1991, local businesses had little opportunity to borrow in a foreign currency to benefit from a lower rate of interest and this was as a result of restriction on foreign inflows. Additionally, the system maintained the status quo and prevented the freedom of market forces to prevail in both internal and external markets. This impeded the development of the FX market.
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1.
Sustained an overvalued exchange rate as the restrictive nature of the Act meant the existence of a exchange rate that was not truly marketdetermined and which, in essence, prevented the orderly operation and development of the FX market;
2.
Discouraged much needed foreign investment, partly because investors feared that they would not have been able to repatriate capital, and partly because rates of return in the trade sectors were depressed by an overvalued exchange rate; and
3.
Distorted the economy, favouring industries that were not exposed to foreign competition (for example financial services).
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The policy of interest rate regulation had four (4) major effects on Japans system: High profit margins that were predictable and resulted in a fairly stable hierarchy within the system; Little pressure to reduce expenses and increase efficiency; Large banks being in constant negotiation with regulatory authorities who aimed to influence the flow of loan funds for industrial policy purposes; and Regulators allowing the banking system to define their own disclosure requirements through their trade associations. With the latter, disclosure requirements remained rather flexible as credit assessment was based on criteria rather than credit worthiness. Further, depositors did not approach banks on questionable business practices; while major shareholders were usually the borrowers of funds not interested in rigid disclosure requirements.
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Window Guidance
The excess demand for funds in the Japanese financial system because of artificially low rates resulted in a situation known as overloan where the total capital and deposit liabilities of banking entities fell short of loan demand. Consequently, banks had to borrow money from the Central Bank to make loans to the corporate sector making it easy to influence credit by a system of rationing. This took place in the process of window guidance, a subset of administrative guidance specifically geared towards the lending behaviour of commercial banks. (Administrative guidance being a quid-pro-quo approach that involves a system based on deals, favours, and reciprocal obligations). One effect of window guidance approach was that the hierarchy of the large banks remained unchanged because the Central Bank allocated credit based on existing market share. This affected the need for strategic management decisions, cost-cutting efforts, and competitive positioning. With window guidance, it was not obvious as to who would be responsible for failure in an environment where financial authorities had such a significant role in directing the lending behaviour of banks.
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The existence of these clear lines meant that each bank category had their own laws special laws, detailed restrictions, and administrative guidance. In the supervision of these institutions however, the convoy approach was used. Under this system, the impact on small or weaker institutions was very important in deciding whether or not to implement planned changes. If it would negatively impact the institution, then the change would not be effected. With the well-regulated structure of the Japanese financial system, some banks, similar to the practice in Jamaica, moved business to non-bank entities. For example, when the financial authorities asked banks to reduce real estate loans in 1992, the banks obeyed on paper. In order to get around this situation, Japanese banks simply utilised their nonbank affiliates to continue booking loans. The result was a high concentration of very questionable loans in these entities.
(6) Summary
The structural deficiencies of the Jamaican financial sector were outlined in the foregoing sections and the characteristics of the Japanese system illustrated. Financial sector liberalisation measures, timing, etc are not only impacted by these distortions and inefficiencies, but also by the macro-economic environment. The following chapter examines Jamaicas economic background up to the early 1990s.
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CHAPTER 4
An Overview of the State of the Jamaican Economy
(1) Introduction
Chapter 3 provided important insights into the financial sector up to the early 1990s. This chapter examines the macro-economic environment of Jamaica from the 1960s up to the same point. The International Monetary Funds (IMFs) structural adjustment policies that commenced in 1977 are also discussed. Jamaicas relationship with the IMF actually commenced in 1973, but focus will be placed on the period of significant impact from 1977 to 1992.
The distortions and inefficiencies of the financial sector were against mushrooming economic difficulties. These difficulties commenced with a balance of payments crisis in the 1960s when, despite the buoyancy of the economy (high export earnings from tourism and bauxite), the country experienced a deficit on its current account that was covered from foreign inflows. There were other key developments. In 1972, the Peoples National Party (PNP) led by Michael Manley came to power and introduced a number of moderate social reforms. In 1974, however, it moved in the direction of democratic socialism. With this new ideology, the government tightened controls over the private sector and acquired a number of enterprises. them going. In time, the programmes of the PNP proved costly and the government had to resort to massive internal and external borrowing to keep
Further, in the 1960s, Jamaica was one of the worlds top producers of bauxite. However, a decline in demand for Jamaican bauxite and alumina and a government-imposed levy compounded difficulties being faced by the PNP
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government. As a result of the levy, taxes increased sixfold. Alumina production costs rose by US$30 per ton and made Jamaica, which was one of the worlds lowest-cost producers, into one of the highest.
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Structural imbalances manifested in the dependence on imports, a concentration of exports (bauxite and alumina) and production issues such as obsolete technology which limit the growth of exports; Domestic policies e.g. large money wage increases between 1973-76 and expansionary monetary and fiscal policy fuelled by the bauxite levy that resulted in inflationary pressures.
(3) Enter the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (3.1) The First Phase of IMF Policy Measures
With the deepening of Jamaicas balance of payments woes and a worsening of its FX reserve position, Jamaica had no choice but to enter into a Stand-by Agreement with the I.M.F. in July 1977. The arrangement was, however, terminated when the fiscal performance test was failed in December of that year despite the fairly lenient terms set out by the IMF. In 1978, new policy measures were implemented. The months following this new arrangement defined a new era in Jamaica. There was continued economic downturn with most of the performance standards not met. The country experienced unprecedented levels of political violence, and social instability that resulted in massive human and capital flight. The program was terminated in 1980.
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However, despite what has been described as favourable arrangements, Jamaica failed the September 1983 I.M.F. performance test and as a result had to implement much more rigid adjustment measures. Another stand-by agreement came into effect in 1984 followed by another in July 1985. On the heels of three subsequent failed tests, it came as no surprise when the program was suspended in September 1985. The relationship with the IMF did not resume until 1987 and continued up to 1995. IMF. The PJ Patterson government has since vowed not to enter into any other arrangements with the
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production of bauxite (Jamaicas principal export), sugar, and bananas were disappointing compared to projections. Government expenditure that was projected to decline from over 40% to 30% of GDP by 1983/84 did not budge. The overall public sector deficit, programmed to decline from over 15% to 10% of GDP, instead increased to over 19%. According to one study, The easy availability of finance delayed the pressure for structural adjustment. In March 1983, it was finally accepted that the targets would not be met and the programme was terminated in September. Following on this failure, the IMF Agreement in 1984 had extremely harsh measures. These included: The lay-off of approximately 20,000 public sector workers in one year A large devaluation, huge tax increases, high interest rates A reduction of bank liquidity Targeted reduction of the fiscal deficit from 19% to 7.5% in one year. These targets were not met and by 1986, Jamaica broke off ties with the IMF.
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A sharp fall in oil prices; The stabilisation of the exchange rate; and The closing of the fiscal gap Real GDP grew by 5.7% and the trend was expected to continue in the following year. Major economic dislocation caused by Hurricane Gilbert in September 1988 killed these expectations. The overall public sector deficit grew from 5.4% to 13.3% of GDP. This was blamed on low utility revenues as a result of the hurricane damage. Other consequences included a surge of demand for FX and insurance reflows were less than anticipated. As a result in 1989, the country faced a fiscal bind. The IMF Agreement was cancelled in September.
Sector Electricity Services Education Health Agriculture Tourism Water Exhibit 8 $580 million
$388 million damage to schools $75M to repair health & hospitals $1.3 billion $20 and $236 million to airports and hotels respectively $60 million
Damage by Hurricane Gilbert, September, 1988 (Jampress News Release, Sept 26, 1998)
SOURCE: Carl Stone, The Run-Up to Elections, Chapter 5, Politics versus Economics, 1989 (Stephensons Litho Press Limited, 1989), Figures extracted from ps. 98 - 101
After the cancelled agreement, another period of severe stabilisation began. This included a target to reduce the fiscal deficit by 6.5% in one year, high interest rates, a continuation of wage guidelines, new taxes including a payroll education tax, and a removal of subsidies causing basic food prices to increase up to 50%.
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Again, the performance test conducted in March 1990 revealed that some targets had not been met. In particular, the net international reserves fell short by US$7m. In March 1991, with the economy growing by an average of 2.5% over the latter part of 1990 and early 1991, Jamaicas fortunes turned and the performance tests were passed fairly comfortably. In June 1991 a Standby agreement was entered into followed by a 3-Year Extended Fund Facility in December 1992. There was some dispute as to whether or not Jamaica had passed the IMF test of 1992. For the year, inflation was over 40% and the growth rate, a mere 1.5%. Further, during the year, there was steep devaluation with the Jamaican dollar trading as high as US$1 to J$30. Through the intervention of private sector interests by selling additional FX into the system, the rate at year-end was US$1 to J$22.96.
(5) Summary
As outlined then, it was structural adjustment in 1981 that called for the liberalisation of the Jamaican economy. The actual process of financial sector liberalisation commenced in 1985 and is thoroughly examined in the next chapter.
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CHAPTER 5
Liberalizing the Jamaican Financial Sector
During the past decade, there has been a distinct world-wide trend towards financial liberalisation. Both developed and developing countries have seriously considered and extensively adopted various measures to this end. Dr. Samuel Shieh, Delicate Art of Monetary Policy, 1 September 1996.
(1) Introduction
This chapter reexamines the actual process of financial sector liberalisation in Jamaica. The two (2) phases taking place up to 1992 and new banking regulation and other legislation introduced by year end are discussed. Further, liberalisation measures introduced in 1992 to 1995, and deregulation in Japan, and the background to its the ensuing banking crisis complete this chapter.
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effectively dealing with these elements and making the financial intermediation more efficient, economic growth could take place at a much faster pace.
open market operations, credit allocation would not biased by giving priority to certain sectors and the interest rate.
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Exhibit 9 Liquid Assets Ratios for Commercial and Merchant Banks 91985 to 1995)
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
As is evident in Exhibit 9, however, reduction of the liquid assets reserve ratio was not sustained and was, over time, brought back to pre-reform levels. In addition to a reduction in liquid assets ratio, the non-cash portion was phased out over time. In 1984, the cash reserve ratio stood at 5% and by 1985 it had increased to 20%.
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Overdraft Facilities
Up to the early 1990s, many companies borrowed by way of overdraft. This was a very expensive form of funding. Here it was contemplated that heavily indebted, under-capitalised companies be encouraged to service debt more regularly by converting overdrafts to fixed term loans. This form of cash flow lending placed serious pressures on the cash flow of companies.
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To further enhance the capacity of the BOJ to effectively monitor and supervise the financial system, the Department of Supervision of Banks and Financial Institutions was upgraded and strengthened with the primary objective of promoting the stability of the financial system.
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changes, however, restrictions still existed, as bidders on FX required proof of purchase or order and approval from the BOJ or a commercial bank. With FX liberalisation in train, the slide in the value of the Jamaican dollar continued. In fact, the Jamaica Bankers Association (JBA) introduced new operating rules on 1 June 1991, which were designed to slow the depreciation in the exchange rate and encourage a more efficient FX market. Within these new rules, commercial banks set their own rates within a predetermined range on a daily basis.
The requirement that non-residents gain exchange control approval before purchasing real estate; Limits on current account transactions such as vacation travel and business travel; BOJs claim to FX proceeds from identified exports; The need to gain ministerial approval for investment inflows. Restriction of FX trading to Authorised Dealers - chiefly commercial banks1. After 25 September 1991, the decision was taken to remove the remaining aspects of exchange controls. This essentially meant foreign and domestic currencies became interchangeable as the accepted medium of exchange. The removal also had significant implications for Jamaicas current account (trade in currently produced goods and services) and capital account (difference between domestic outflows and foreign inflows on asset purchases).
(8) Further Liberalisation Measures (1992 to 1995) Repealing the Exchange Control Act
In April 1992, it was announced that the Exchange Control Act was to be abolished once and for all. This was important, as even though the provisions
See Appendix 3A 40
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of the Act were removed, Government still had right to impose restrictions at any time as the law was still on the books. The removal of the Act meant that once and for all there was no restriction on movement of FX in Jamaica. In August 1992, the Exchange Control Act was repealed (see Appendices 3B).
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Cambios No. of Cambio applications No. of applications approved Cambios in operation Cambios not in operation No. of application pending Application rejected 76 13 1 63 153 139
Bureaux de Change No. of Bureaux applications No. of applications approved No. of applications pending 92 3 95
Exhibit 10 The Status of Applications and Approvals of Cambios and Bureaux de Change
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica Annual Report 1994
Apr 1.05
May 1.75
June 5.21
July 26.84
Aug. 35.20
Sept. 34.40
Oct. 19.35
Nov. 2.96
Dec. 28.03
Total 179.79
The introduction of Cambios/Bureau de Change was significant in that by the end of the first year, they already controlled 14.6% of the official flows into the FX market. The other 85.4 %, of course, being controlled by authorised dealers. The increased competition, in time, negatively affected the profitability of these dealers.
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Two important
factors appeared on the world economic scene that ushered in the global
As a consequence of the introduction of these factors America imported, borrowed, and spent into prosperity; while the dollar was kept strong by very high real interest rates due to the relentless appetite of the American Government to access the financial market to borrow funds. This strong US dollar stifled the manufacturing sector and resulted in a complete turnaround by the Reagan administration.
Japans Reaction
After the Plaza accord, Japan was urged to stimulate domestic consumption. As the Japanese economy grew domestically, Japan moved to have savings spent internally, which resulted in less capital outflow and less trade surplus for Japan. The consumption boom was not able to keep pace with the monetary expansion due to the everlasting meddling of Japanese authority over the markets and also due to the existence of various trade barriers to retard the free flow of imports.
Japanese authorities took corrective measures in 1990 that resulted Japanese economy falling abruptly. With this fall, capital flowed out of Japan like it did previously and the trade surplus expanded in line with this development. The authorities were to find that they were late in acting as in 1995, the bubble economy came home to roost.
(10) Summary
The foregoing sections outlined the liberalisation process in Jamaica and also looked at the experience in Japan. Jamaica as was seen, embarked on a radical process designed to free both internal and external markets. The result was radical change in the Jamaican financial sector, which culminated in its eventual ruin. The following chapter details the persistence of macro-economic instability and the changed financial system.
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CHAPTER 6
The Economic Environment and the Financial Sector (1992 to 1995)
(1) Introduction
Chapter 6 examines the economic environment and developments in the financial sector from 1992 to 1995. The bad debt crisis experienced in Korea and Japan are discussed with particular emphasis placed on the Japanese experience. The chapter provides important insights into the looming crisis in the Jamaican finance sector.
(2) Post-Liberalisation Trends (1992 -1995) (2.1) The Persistence of Macro-economic Instability
By 1995, the formal liberalisation process had essentially run its course. However, the programmes that were designed to improve the allocation of resources and to spur economic growth were being blamed for the economic ills being faced by the country. In particular, interest rate policy was erratic with the overall level of rates in the system remaining at very high levels; treasury bill rates climbed to as high as just under 40% and to compound the situation, inflationary pressures remained high, thus ensuring the persistence of financially repressive conditions. For example, inflation rates, while declining from just over 40% in 1992, averaged in the high twenties over the period, resulting at times in a negative real rate of interest to investors. FX inflows were redirected from the official to the informal market and the liberalisation of the FX market did little to stabilise the rate of exchange. This was manifested in the drastic movement in the exchange rate from US$1 to J$23.01 at the end of 1992 to US$1 to J$35.54 at the end of 1995. The high interest rate
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regime was largely a result of Governments attempts to halt the precipitous decline of the Jamaican dollar. Over the period 1992 to 1995, Growth in GDP remained flat (averaging just over 1%). The debt service ratio remained at the high levels reached in 1992 declining to 118.5 % of GDP in 1995. A positive development, however, was despite continuing concerns with the balance of payments position, the net foreign reserves position grew to just over US$400m from a negative position of over US$250m in 1992. Macro-economic instability affected financial institutions and other market players alike. While the volatile conditions were sometimes a recipe for making huge profits, it prevented long-term planning and the high interest rate regime, in particular, eroded the profitability and ultimately the capital base of many borrowing institutions.
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Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Growth (%) 9.3 16.9 20.6 10.5 19.4 8.0 -6.6 49.9 -2.2
Contribution (%) 6.8 7.8 8.8 9.3 11.0 11.7 10.7 15.9 15.5
Exhibit 12 Rate of Growth and Percentage Contribution of Financial Sector to GDP at constant 1986 Prices
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
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Commencing in 1992/92, merchant banks grew because of the low capital base requirements2, the lack of supervision from the regulatory bodies, and the rapid expansion of unsecured credit (IOUs) to commercial entities and to a lesser extent, individuals, commencing in 1991/1992. In addition to the advantages cited, the liquid reserve requirement was lower for merchant banks than it was for commercial banks.
commonplace as entities such as the Eagle Group expanded rapidly into insurance and commercial banking. Eagle, which commenced operations as a merchant bank, also owned a unit trust, a stock brokerage and a building society. This form of structure, while helping with efficiency and allowing rapid expansion, was to prove deadly in time to come. Diversification in a competitive environment brought about by liberalisation is sometimes necessary for survival. In the South Korean example, diversification
Merchant Banks JA$5M, Commercial Banks JA$40M up to 1992: JA$25M and JA$80M respectively, after 1992
2
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was permitted by Revised Banking Acts but along more stringent lines than those seen in Jamaica. For example, banks, inter alia, were allowed to: Underwrite corporate bonds for private placement; To lead manage underwriting of public and government bonds; Handle some long-term financial business such as housing loans; and to Issue debentures that were only previously issued by long-tern financial institutions.
Profitability Declines
The years 1993 and 1994 saw banks making supernormal profits, to the extent that in 1994, a surtax (discussed below) was levied by the Minister of Finance, Dr. Omar Davies. To give a better appreciation of the level of profitability, profits made in the first half of 1994 were almost equal to that made in all of 1993 which was a record year. In essence, banks were operating very high interest spreads that were not being passed on to savers. While this was true, the gains made by commercial banks from FX trading in the newly liberalized market were also enormous. Additionally, as the secondary market for trading in government securities grew, merchant banks began trading heavily in derivatives. Countries such as Thailand and South Korea like Jamaica, both experienced increased trading in derivatives albeit in more sophisticated forms. In the Jamaican context, this essentially entailed issuing repurchase agreements against underlying government securities. This form of new activity added to the bottom line, but, in time, became a dangerous practice as some players sometimes issued multiple agreements against the same set of securities with the market not being rigid in having underlying securities delivered for safe keeping. As a result, settlement risk became a big problem in the banking industry.
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The record levels of profitability attained in 1993 and 1994 were, however, short lived as shown in Exhibit 14. The reasons advanced for the decline in profitability include:
Increased Competition
This came from newly introduced Cambios/Bureau de Change in 1994 that affected profits made by authorised dealers from FX trading. Also, the growth in unregulated institutions (examined below) did much to steer business that would have gone to either commercial or merchant banks.
described below.
Funding Trends
The period from 1990 to 1995, as mentioned previously, was characterised by the highest interest rates that the Jamaica had seen and interest rate policies that changed with the wind. This essentially forced the market into shortterm posture so as to minimise exposure. The unavailability of long-term funding put financial institutions at great risk as the short-term funding was not only expensive but posed a serious liquidity threat in the event of a run.
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However, with the continued harsh economic conditions, issuers of commercial paper found it increasingly difficult to meet payment obligations on largely unsecured debt. Unsuspecting investors who did not realise their direct participation in these instruments were made to feel the brunt of these losses.
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Another popular means of circumventing withholding tax requirements was the use of Industrial and Provident Societies. These are a form of legal vehicle of some antiquity, governed from 1972 century legislation and were originally designed to encourage groups of individuals to associate together to engage in business and provide welfare benefits for their members. These entities which were set up by banks and other financial intermediaries were under the law not mandated to withhold tax on interest paid. When legislation eventually brought debentures under the withholding tax net (1992), merchant banks again moved to a new instrument in the form of Cash Management instruments which were pooled investments with the rate of return to the investor unguaranteed. Legal opinion maintained that it was the guarantee on instruments that made them subject to withholding tax. In 1993, the withholding tax for individuals was reduced to 25% to discourage banks from creating instruments and other means to assist investors in evading withholding tax and to improve the taxation net. This was, however, to no avail. Another instrument - a Certificate of Participation where an investors funds would be charged against a specific and identified asset held by the institution - was introduced. In order to avoid scrutiny by the BOJ and onerous cash reserve requirements, these portfolios were moved off balance sheet. This activity, in time, was to be a part of the banking sectors undoing as the regulatory bodies were unable to monitor the quality of assets held in these off-balance sheet portfolios. Further, institutions were at times required to extend guarantees to investors in their off balance sheet portfolio thus compromising their capital base, but were not required to reserve against these contingent liabilities.
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Flawed Credit Processes The credit process was seriously flawed in some institutions. In particular, the perfecting collateral arrangements was taken for granted, staff could borrow amounts way beyond normal staff lending limits against weak security, and loans extended for tenors much longer than funding structures could support. Additionally, the banking sector at times fell prey to the halo effect. It was not unusual for politicians or other prominent members of the community to access loan facilities under questionable terms and conditions.
Average Weighted Deposit Rates 24.50 27.50 23.00 39.80 27.85 26.22
Instalment Credit Rates (%) 29.78 33.09 45.07 49.59 55.04 60.93
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One of the reasons for the high interest rates was the governments monetary policy specifically high reserve requirements that were used as a part of the overall demand containment strategy. The high reserve ratio (which was part cash held with the BOJ at a zero rate of interest) essentially forced banks to lend at very high levels in order to cover costs and ultimately return a decent spread (this effect was previously discussed). Spreads shown in Exhibit 14 were arguably wide. High loan rates eventually turned good customers into delinquent borrowers. To compound the problem, new banking regulation meant that lending institutions were forced to write back income on loans over three months in arrears and reclassify as non-performing. The growing non-performing loan portfolio significantly eroded bank profits and resulted in increased vigilance from the Central Bank, even though it was well known at the time that they were limited in resources. Public jitters began to grow. The chart below illustrates the extent of the non-performing loan portfolio of select commercial banks.
Institution Bank of Nova Scotia Century National Bank Citibank N. A. Citizens Bank CIBC Island Victoria Bank National Commercial Bank Trafalgar Commercial Bank Workers Group TOTAL
Loans (after provision) JA$b 20.00 3.70 2.00 1.20 3.10 1.40 24.80 0.33 1.90 58.43
Non-performing Loans JA$b 1.10 2.30 0 1.70 N/A 0.80 13.50 N/A 4.70 24.10
Provision JA$b 0.90 0.70 0 0.07 0.10 0.03 0.30 0.03 4.70 6.83
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Like Jamaica, the bad debt problem was also a feature of finance sector liberalisation in South Korea. From 1990 to 1993, bad debts in domestic banks grew continuously. In 1990, bad debts stood at 19,103 million won, and in 1993, 29,551 million won. The figure fell to just under 22,944 million won in 1995 but only because bad debt expenses increased substantially.
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Another problem in the Japanese banking system was referred deposits. These which were normally handled by the larger banks was done to: Enhance business ties with large corporations by introducing them to high interest rate deposits; with interest-deregulation in some parts of the market and regulation in others, even a simple arbitrage scheme resulted in a free lunch for the corporation and a fee for the large bank; and Build relationship banking. This was important to get around banking
regulation. By directing a client to a smaller institution, banks could circumvent the Banking Law regulation that prohibits them from extending disproportionately high loans to one single customer. Referred deposits often were covert guided deposits where the larger bank designated both the recipient of the loan and interest rate. While larger banks sometimes provided support by swapping bank personnel, they were quick to deny involvement when things started to go wrong.
(3.3) Fraud
Here, the main problem was from insider deals where large amounts of deposits were withdrawn just before an institution is closed.
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These entities not only grew in number but also in size, as there was increasing concern among the investing public regarding taxation on interest earned. The feeling was that the authorities had unbridled access to the records of institutions under its purview and as such it was the clients of these institutions that would have been more vulnerable. Additionally, these institutions had no minimum capital requirements, were not subject to reserve requirements and could afford to be more aggressive and less risk averse and so were able to offer more investment options and also higher investment yields. They also afforded flexibility in accepting investments for much shorter periods than the market and allowed encashments before maturity. With this boldness, unlicensed institutions such as Dehring, Bunting and Golding (1992) and Jamaica Money Market Brokers (1991) played key roles in developing the market for unsecured debt (IOUs).
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Additionally, FX trading schemes set up by banks only contributed to the growth in the informal market, as informal traders were more open to suggestions outside of the established guidelines. Diverting funds to the informal market only served to compound the problem as some end-users refused to purchase in this market. This only put more pressure on the official system overtime that translated to devaluation pressures.
(4) Summary
The period 1992-95, therefore, saw new and far-reaching developments in the Jamaican financial system. The chapter pointed to a sector that was going through the process of liberalisation and experiencing structural change change that would eventually bring about its demise. describes the crisis. Chapter 7 following
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Chapter 7
The Collapse of the Financial Sector (1995 1999)
Jamaicas financial sector which was primarily domestically owned and controlled, grew substantially in the 1980s before collapsing in the mid-1990s. Paul Chen-Young, With All Good Intentions The Collapse of Jamaicas Domestic Financial Sector, November 1, 1998.
(1) Introduction
The previous chapter examined at length the macro-economic environment and worrying developments in the financial sector over the period 1992 to 1995. Chapter 7 now outlines the first signs of trouble, the actual collapse of the system, and the eventual bailout plan implemented by government.
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Provisioning for loan losses (including capitalised interest), at about 36% of past due loans was below the international norms of 50% for loans in arrears for more than six months; Average capital-to-assets ratio for the system at 6.5%, was below the 8% ratio of the international convention (Basle risk-weighted ratio); In July 1996 the worst fears became reality: Century National, one of Jamaicas largest commercial banks triggered the formal collapse of the financial sector. A report released at the time revealed that the bank had J$3b excess liabilities over assets. The closure made the climate extremely fragile resulting in a series of runs on other banks such as Citizens Commercial Bank, Eagle Commercial and Merchant Banks, and the Workers Bank. By February 1997, it was Eagles turn to close its doors. With a gaping hole left in its balance sheet and being unable to support the huge overdraft offered by the BOJ to support the runs, the Eagle Group became insolvent. In March 1997, a significant stake in the entire network was sold to the Jamaican Government for $1. By the end of 1997, the Government increased its stake in two other commercial banks namely Jamaicas largest National Commercial Bank, and by the end of 1998 had assumed control of a total of eleven merchant and six commercial banks. By 1999, of the over thirty merchant banks in operation, a total of 14 merchant had failed. The collapse of the financial system in the Jamaican situation followed the trend experienced in much more developed economies.
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INSTITUTIONS
# OF ACCOUNTS
Billy Craig Merchant Bank Buck Mer. Bank Partner Mer. Bank Caldon Mer. Bank Carib. Trust & Mer. Bank Fidelity Mer. Bank Horizon Mer. Bank Horizon Building Society Island Life Mer. Bank Intercontinental Mer. Bank Island Victoria Finance & Inv. Citizens Comm. Bank NCB NCB Workers Bank Workers Bank TOTAL
840 277 50 149 56 850 403 100 121,566 949,649 73,919 211,692 6,418 1,365,969
AMOUNTS ASSUMED BY FINSAC JA$b 0.40 0.04 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.09 41.38 1.00 0.11 0.10 0.31 5.00 39.20 2.87 90.67
Exhibit 17 FINSACs INTERVENTIONS IN THE BANKING SECTOR (1999 FIGURES) Through FINSAC, the Government will provide guidance and technical assistance to the financial sector. It may mobilise and deploy external technical and managerial support for restructuring intervened institutions.
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contemplated.
resign and replaced by government officials from Japans Ministry of Finance. The assurance given to viable loan clients is that they will still be able to secure funding requirements from the government-run Bridge Bank. Already, problems are envisaged with this approach: 1. Banks will not approach the Bridge Bank as long as they feel that there is some hope of resuscitating themselves and staff will be reluctant to resign unless there is absolutely no choice, making it likely that only failed banks will benefit from this initiative. 2. 3. Corporates will be reluctant to report funding secured from the Bridge Bank for fear that it will hurt their credit ratings. The proposed funding for the Bridge Bank is set at 1.3 trillion yen which when combined with 2.5 trillion yen already set aside for bail outs, totals 3.8 trillion yen which falls short of the 70 trillion yen required for bad loans. In addition to the above, Japan has also changed the entire direction of its fiscal and budgetary policy over the past couple of years. Since 1998, the government has been very aggressive in cutting taxes and has stopped putting forward contractionary budgets replacing them instead with expansionary budgets. This has been supported by a 17 trillion yen stimulus programme, the largest in Japanese history. Also, it has made extensive arrangements with the United States on the deregulation of key sectors in the economy. (7) Summary The collapse of the Jamaican financial sector described has not only caused instability in the financial sector but to the country on the whole. As the discussion on the bail out plan showed the financial commitment to date is astronomical and the social consequences are just beginning to manifest themselves.
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Chapter 8 addresses one of these very important questions: What exactly were the root causes of the Jamaican financial sector crisis? Naturally many questions are being asked of the regulatory authorities and senior banking personnel.
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CHAPTER 8
The Real Impact of Liberalisation
In recent years, there have been a number of financial crises in both advanced and developing countries. Why did these happen? One reason has been a lack of adequate financial discipline associated with liberalisation at both the national level and the level of financial institutions. With-out strict financial discipline and a solid financial supervisory system, liberalisation is dangerous. Dr Samuel Sheih, Delicate Art of Monetary Policy, September 1996.
(1) Introduction
The previous chapter discussed the banking collapse and the eventual bailout of the sector. The Japan experience was also considered. Following the collapse of the Jamaican financial system the search for answers began. The proceeding sections are focused on whether or not the objectives of liberalisation in terms of removing distortions and inefficiencies were met and on the many arguments advanced to explain the demise of the sector.
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Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Real GDP Rate of Growth (%) -3.4 1.6 7.8 2.9 6.8 5.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 -1.4 -2.1
Exhibit 18 Real GDP Rate of Growth (%) for the period 1985 1997
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The impact of demonstrations protesting the rising cost of living on sensitive industries such as tourism which currently constitutes Jamaicas single largest earner of FX (specifically the 1985 gas riots); and The implications of the removal of subsidies and decontrol of prices for the nutritional status and general productivity of a population where the majority currently fall below the poverty line. Another criticism is that the diagnosis and treatment of the I.M.F. ignores external factors impacting on economies in balance of payment crisis, and consequently deals with only a subset of the relevant problems. The authorities consistently downplay the role of eternal shocks, which impact profoundly on small economies such as Jamaica. Again, in the Jamaican situation, such external shocks included the rise in world oil prices (1970s and 1980s), which resulted in large increases in external outflows. Finally, the perception of the IMF and World Bank sometimes impede progress. They are often seen as unrelenting proponents of free-market principles and capitalists ideas set up to extract the surplus wealth of the less fortunate. The breach of trust that is often the consequence, retards efforts to improve production and lower consumption levels.
(4) What of Distortions and Inefficiencies (4.1) The Interest Rate Structure
Attempts to achieve real positive rates of interest (and thereby raise domestic savings levels) were constantly thwarted by rates of inflation, which ran ahead of nominal interest rates. The objective of increasing gross domestic capital formation was precluded by prohibitive rates of interest that rendered the most efficient projects non-viable and encouraged speculation instead.
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Also, while interest rates have been liberalised, the trend observed over the period 1991 to 1996 was a persistence of a divergence between lending and savings rates offered by commercial banks. The trend is illustrated below:
Average Savings Rate (%) 18.52 19.51 18.17 18.75 17.82 17.96
Average Lending Rate (%) 40.12 46.39 61.32 56.14 55.27 55.22
Exhibit 19 Average Lending and Savings Rates offered by Commercial Banks 1991 - 1996
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
The oligopolistic nature of commercial banking in Jamaica where two banks controlled up to 70% of the market ensured that savings rates remained sticky upwards. (4.2) Interest Subsidies The high interest rate regime has ensured that persistence of interest subsidies through such organisation as the Agricultural Credit Bank and the National Development Bank. While loan rates on the Jamaican dollar were running as high as 60% per annum, certain sectors and projects were able to borrow at 18% per annum through these institutions.
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of interest, the efficient allocation of credit to the private sector has been a challenge. A consistent trend to the private sector was not established until 1989. The figures for Commercial Banks from 1991 to 1996 are shown below: Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Private Sector (J$b) 11.2 13.3 22.3 29.6 42.5 49.4 Public Sector (J$b) 2.1 8.3 8.3 18.0 15.9 18.7
Exhibit 20
Comparison of Credit Allocation between Public and Private Sectors 1991 to 1996
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
At a glance, the trend seems heartening; but on closer analysis of available data it reveals that over the period 1990-95, loans to the consumption sector increased by 71% while loans to the productive sector grew by 29 %. Further, some argue that the true story is untold. In particular, they argue that banks and other financial institutions hold huge balances with the government in off balance sheet portfolios. This, they argue continue to mask the true extent of crowding-out in the private sector.
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The extent of capital raised in the local market up to 1995 is depicted in the Exhibit 21: Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Public Offer 0 62.5 8 31 0 0 0 228.96 350 83.87 60 Private Placement 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 449.45 330 210 0 Rights Issue 0 0 0 0 32 10 10 363.87 445.36 150 19.54 Total 0 62.5 8 31 32 10 10 1042.28 1125.36 443.87 79.54
Exhibit 21 Capital Raised in the Jamaican Stock Market Amounts (JA$ Million)
SOURCE: Robert Stennett, Financial Liberalisation, Commercial Banks, Credit Allocation and A case for Direct Credit in Jamaica, Reserves Services Department, Bank of Jamaica, Portion Extracted from Appendix 7.
Exhibit 22 Total FX Purchases by Cambios and Authorised Dealers (Equivalent of all currencies in US$m
SOURCE: Bank of Jamaica The Statistical Digest
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viability of borrowers. The resulting bad debt problem was compounded by competition brought on by the growth in the number of financial institutions (regulated and unregulated) that forced some banks to make extremely marginal loans.
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Despite the link established between structural adjustment, financial sector reform and the decline in the financial sector, there are those who vehemently argue that other factors were responsible or just as important in the collapse of the financial sector. Those who take this view point to the experience of foreignowned banks such as Bank of Nova Scotia, Citibank, etc. These banks, amidst the fall out, remained financially viable by maintaining sound banking principles. Supporters of this view, argue that other factors were responsible for the collapse in the financial sector.
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When the stock market crashed, these illiquid investments and predominantly short-term funding which was a feature of the finance sector proved, to be a telling combination. National Commercial Bank (the countrys largest commercial bank) was forced to pump billions into Mutual Life Assurance to offset losses. A similar fate befell the LOJ Group of Companies that included a commercial and merchant banking arm Citizens Bank Ltd and Citizens Merchant Bank Ltd. While banks overextended themselves to group members, the drain on cash resources was further compounded as news of problems within a group fuelled runs on the commercial and merchant banking arms in mid-1996 and early 1997.
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(7.5) Staffing
Staffing is also blamed for the financial sectors demise. With the massive expansion of the banking sector quality staff was thinly spread. Further with the challenges of the economic environment and as the crisis began to unfold, inexperience took centre-stage. This human resource deficiency ultimately played a role in the downfall of the financial sector.
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notion that they were separate to the FSRP would simply be nave. They had an undeniable link with the liberalisation process. Factors such as the role of trade unions and external auditing firms were indeed separate issues to the FSRP. Moreover, logical reasoning would conclude that these could not have been far-reaching enough to cause the scale of the collapse that took place. However, the other factors such as the growth in conglomerates, the actions of owners and other senior officers, the weak regulatory environment, the stock market crash, stagnant profitability, high taxation levels, and deficient staffing can all be linked to the FSRP. There is no doubt that the FSRP sparked the tremendous growth in the financial services sector that ultimately led to the formation of conglomerates discussed in the first part of the chapter. It was the FSRP that sparked the growth in the financial sector leading to the conclusion that Jamaica was simply overbanked. The supporting argument being that the existing commercial activity could not support so many entities and, as such, some shakeout was inevitable. This argument, however, is difficult to support as criteria required to establish over-banked status are not available. With this growth in the financial services sector, the weak regulatory structure and supervision that was woefully lacking, gave many company executives unbridled freedom and room to engage in many questionable business practices. It was as a result of the growth in the financial services sector, spurred by liberalisation that ultimately led to the human resource deficiency problem. The FSRP and structural adjustment policies created the inflationary environment that pushed the stock market to record levels of capitalisation. This along with other aspects of the FSRP impacted positively on reported banking profits. For example, FX market liberalisation resulted in huge profit gains to authorised
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dealers. It was as a result of these record profit levels that led to the imposition of the 1994 surtax on banking profits. Finally, the other factors described in the last three paragraphs each played a role in eroding the financial stability of the finance sector and in the end their combined effect toppled the Jamaican financial sector. The preceding arguments then have established a pattern; a pattern that is unmistakable; a pattern with a common thread in the form of financial sector Liberalisation.
Wait-and-see regulation Administrative guidance and lack of investor responsibility Lack of transparency, collusion, and regulatory entanglement Internationalisation and interdependence with world financial markets Interest Rate Deregulation Exhibit 23 Factors Behind Japans Banking Crisis
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Administrative guidance and lack of investor responsibility, multi-layered banking supervision, the convoy approach, lack of transparency, collusion and regulatory entanglement, and interest rate deregulation that existed before deregulation and after, all played a very important role in fuelling Japans banking crisis. (9.1) Wait and See regulation Other structural problems included the wait-and-see regulation where regulators would prevent banks from posting after-tax losses by disallowing bad loan write-offs. This designed to maintain stability in the system; however, such practices only added to the already existing problem of bad debts on the books of affiliates.
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business practices. For example, because smaller banks in general have higher refinancing costs, they moved to offer higher interest rates when this was allowed in 1990 in order to compete with the larger banks. To recover the cost that such a strategy entailed, the smaller banks also had to make loans with higher risk.
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CHAPTER 9
Project Summary
(1) Review
Chapter 1 provided an introduction and overview to the project while chapter 2 examined financial systems and how and why they are regulated. The process of economic liberalisation was also outlined followed by historical development of the Jamaican financial sector. The third chapter discussed its structural features and the presence of distortions and inefficiencies. Here, the Japanese financial system was compared to the Jamaican situation in the same context. The objectives of financial sector liberalisation in Jamaica were then discussed. The background to the paper was completed in Chapter 4, which provides an overview of the Jamaican economy. was a part. Chapter 5 outlined the actual process of financial reform augmented by the experience and Japan. The succeeding chapter investigated economic and the Jamaican financial sector developments (1992 to 1995) and importantly pointed to the looming crisis. Chapter 7 provided a brief look at the banking collapse and the eventual bailout plan. Finally, Chapter 8 delved into the possible reasons behind the collapse of the Jamaican financial system. (2) Methodology My research on Liberalisation and the Financial Sector primarily made use of secondary sources of data such as reports presented at workshops, case studies, and other relevant literature (from business magazines and newspaper articles) Particular emphasis was placed on the IMFs structural agreement programmes of which financial reform in Jamaica
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Project Summary
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Project Summary
Discussed in Chapters 6 and 8 The growth and business practices of financial conglomerates, where, for instance, the insurance arm compromised the viability of their group by carrying huge investments in long term assets (equities and real estate), while funding themselves predominantly with high-cost short term funding. The existence of a weak regulatory environment, both in terms of legislation and personnel, that allowed banking principles to carry out questionable transactions and persist with faulty credit processes with the problems being compounded by the pace at which they reacted to the banking crisis. Weak disclosure requirements that allowed banks to operate huge unregulated off balance sheet portfolios with a high degree of unsecured debt. Depressed profitability levels in the financial sector precipitated by the stock market crash, the surtax of 1994, and the relatively high level of corporate taxes. Diversification as in the case of the National Commercial Bank where huge investments were made in agriculture in the interest of nation building. Discussed in Chapter 6 Financial sector liberalisation failing to remove structural deficiencies of the system so that investment inflows and savings were not stimulated, credit continued to be allocated inefficiently through interest subsidies, crowding out of the private sector persisted and the propensity to debt remained a fact of life. Discussed in Chapter 8 Competition not only from licensed financial institutions but also from unregulated players not subject to reserve requirements and other regulatory constraints and more willing to accept risk and offer flexibility to customers.
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Project Summary
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Project Summary
maximum spread is a possibility but this would be against free-market principles. (b) Interest Subsidies Under the existing interest rate regime and with the problem discussed above, removing interest subsidies would plunge the businesses sector into further crisis. (c) Crowding Out With the government present debt problems and FINSACs obligations not yet taken into consideration, the persistence of the crowding out phenomenon will remain. This was also discussed. (d) The Propensity to Borrow Regulation in the form of the Securities Act is now in place to oversee development of the market for equity financing. However, until stability and investor confidence is returned to the system, the propensity to borrow will remain. (e) The FX Market While there have been improved flows into the system as demonstrated in Chapter 8, the Jamaican dollar continues to devalue and can only be addressed by solutions of the macro-economic level broadly discussed. Hence, in solving the problems of the Jamaican financial sector and returning the institutions to a path of sustained growth, there are five (5) realistic considerations related to restoring investor confidence, resolving structural issues, and establishing an environment based on co-operation. These include:
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Project Summary
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Project Summary
Additionally, with the huge real estate holding and bad debt portfolio held by FINSAC, the process of selling off or working out these assets must be transparent and be done in a timely fashion. In particular, real estate holdings have been the subject of much debate because of recent disposals that were done at values way below market rate. confidence of investors. Such a process will also help the
(4.2) Resolving Structural Issues (4.2.1) Defining the Role of Financial Institutions
Merchant Banks were initially set up to act as intermediaries in sourcing long-term funds. The importance of stable funding noted above. As was seen in Chapter 6 though, these entities while being creative and dynamic in their product offerings, were focused more on short-term money market transactions. Some consideration must be given to having the institutions return to this important role
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or creating legislation to introduce a new vehicle to carry out this very important role. (4.3) A Co-operative Environment
(5) Conclusion
The process of financial liberalisation in the Jamaican situation was examined in detail against the background of the historical development of the sector and the macro-economic environment. The policy measures were, by and large, successfully implemented but their real impact was less than desirable. Liberalisation and the structural adjustment programmes of the IMF did little to foster sustained levels of economic growth, and distortions and inefficiencies in the financial system persisted. The paper established that liberalisation played a significant role in the demise of the financial sector, coupled with the input on other factors. Without a solid economic foundation and rigid supervision, the financial sector simply spiralled out of control and eventually met its fate. The authorities had good intentions and sought to introduce legislation to regulate banking structure and conduct rules, but lacked the infrastructure to implement, reinforce, and penalise. The
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Project Summary
resulting bailout is set to cost government and ultimately Jamaicans, billions of dollars. With the fallout in the sector, it was shown above that the regulatory authorities are at a heightened sense of awareness with much improved legislation and trained personnel. Despite these, however, an unsettling disquiet remains. The trouble is, the economy is now even more fragile and liberalisation forces that have taken so much of the blame for the demise of banks are still at work. Finally, the study Interestingly reveals that sound banking principles could withstand the sometimes destructive impact of liberalisation, structural adjustment and economic stagnation. This was seen in the case of foreign-
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alex, (17 July 1998), Bad Debt Clouds Future, The Financial Gleaner, Weekly Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, The Statistical Digest, Monthly Bank of Jamaica Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, (March 1983), A Proposal for a Study to Assess the Operation of the Foreign Exchange Market in Jamaica, Fidelity Economic and Financial Marketing Services Limited, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, Bank of Jamaicas Annual Report, Jamaica (1984 to 1997), Kingston,
Anonymous, (July 1990), Liberalisation of the Foreign Exchange Mechanism, Bank of Jamaicas Economic Bulletin, Volume 5 Anonymous, (March 1991), Exchange Control Liberalisation in Jamaica, London Economics Anonymous, (7 April 1992), Exchange Control Act To Go, The Daily Gleaner, Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, (2 February 1994), PJ Patterson Outlines Fine Tuning Process, The Daily Gleaner, Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, (28 July 1995), Structure of the Financial System, The Financial Gleaner, Weekly Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Anonymous, (July/August 1996), The Demise of the Jamaicas Banking Sector, Knutsford Business Magazine, Kingston, Jamaica, Volume 1, Number 2 Anonymous, (March 1996), Korean Foreign Exchange and Capital Markets, http://www.kol.co.kr/~kdbmst/focus/fx_lib.html, KDB Economic & Industrial Focus (Economic Research Magazine published by Korean Development Bank) Anonymous, (1999), The Effects of Financial Liberalisation on Korean Banks, http://www.kil.colkr/~kdbmst/focus/f96061.html Anonymous, (1999), Economic Liberalisation Governance, Http://www.britishcouncil.org/governance/ecfin/liberal.htm, The British Council Anonymous, Financial Sector Issues - The World Bank, Country Economic Memorandum
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Bibliography
Armstrong, Martin A., (6 July 1998), Why Japans Bridge Bank will Fail http://www.pei-japan.co.jp/gest_pages/BRIDGE.html, Princeton Economic Institute Baumol, William J. & Alex S. Binder, (1988), Economic Principles and Policy, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, U.S.A., 4th Edition Brown, Headly & Company Limited, (1992/93), The Jamaican Economy in a Changing World: The Way Forward 1993/94 and Beyond, Stephensons Litho Press Ltd, Kingston, Jamaica Buck, Basil, (5 January 1999), FINSAC Omars Waterloo, The Daily Observer, Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Chen-Young, Paul, (1 November 1998), With All Good Intentions The Collapse of Jamaicas Domestic Financial Sector, Policy Papers on the Americas, Volume IX, Study 12 Evans, Trevor, Carlos Castro & Jennifer Jones, (1995), Structural Adjustment and the Public Sector in Central America and the Caribbean, CRIES, Managua, Nicaragua Findlay, Ronald & Stanish Law Wellisz, (1993), Political Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth: Five Small Open Economies, Oxford University Press for the World Bank Forest, Raymond, (31 July 1998), Financial Sector Supervision Becoming Easier, The Financial Gleaner, Weekly Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Gardner, Professor E.P.M, (1997), Bank Financial Management Unit 1: Introduction, Environment and Bank Financial Analysis, Institute for Financial Management Grassl, Professor Wolfgang, (22 July 1998), Unions Blocking Path to Recovery, The Daily Gleaner, Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Hempel, George, Donald G. Simonson, Alan B. Coleman, (1994), Bank Management: Text & Cases, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., U.S.A., 4th Edition Jerram, Richard, Michael Hodges, Louis Turner and Richard Kurz, (1997-98), Liberalisation and the State, http://www-douzzer.ai.mit.edu:8080/conspiracy /PEGB/ chap02.htm, Political Environment for Global Business Course Guide, London School of Economics and Political Science
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Bibliography
Lalta, Stanley & Marie Freckleton, (1993), Caribbean Economic Development The First Generation, Ian Randle Publishers Lue Lim, Gail, (1991), Jamaicas Financial System - Its Historical Development, Bank of Jamaica, Kingston, Jamaica Madura, Jeff, (1998), International Financial Management, South Western College Publishing, 5th Edition McNight, Franklyn, (12 November 1991), Banks Feeling the Heat over JA$ Slide, The Daily Gleaner, Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica Mishkin, Frederic S., (1989), Money, Banking & Financial Markets, Scott, Foresman & Company, U.S.A., 2nd Edition Panton, David (Foreword by Rex Nettleford), (1993), Jamaicas Michael Manley: The Great Transformation (1972 to 92), Kingston Publishers Limited, Kingston, Jamaica Prystay, Cris, (Nov 1996), Rocky Road to Liberalisation, http://web3.asia1.com.sg/timesnet/data/ab/docs/ab1141.html Schaede, Ulrike, (February 1996), The 1995 Financial Crisis in Japan, http://www.nmjc.org/jiap/dereg/papers/bbankfa.html, University of California, San Diego Shieh, Samuel, (1 September 1996), Delicate Art of Monetary Policy, http://web3.asia1.com.sg/timesnet/data/ab/docs/ab1095.html Smith, Vindelyn, (December 1991), Monetary Development within the Context of Liberalisation (the case of Jamaica), Research and Programming Division, Bank of Jamaica, Kingston, Jamaica Stennett, Robert, Financial Liberalisation, Commercial Banks Credit Allocation and a Case for Directed Credit in Jamaica, Research Services Department, Bank of Jamaica, Kingston, Jamaica Stone, Carl, (1989), Politics vs. Economics The 1989 Elections in Jamaica, Heinemann Publishers (Caribbean Ltd), Kingston, Jamaica Wint, Carl, (1 April 1999), Debt Eats into Budget, The Daily Gleaner, Daily Newspaper Publication, Kingston, Jamaica
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