24 April 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

24 April 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
Over Valued .................................................................. 5
Aerospace & Defence

Over Valued ................................................................... 5

Automobiles & Parts
Under Valued ................................................................................... 5
Banks
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Beverages
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Over Valued .................................................. 6
Construction & Building Materials
Over Valued ................................................. 6
Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Chemicals

Over Valued ............................................................ 6

Under Valued .................................................................... 7

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Over Valued ....................................................... 7

Food Producers & Processors
Over Valued .......................................................................... 7
General Retail
Under Valued .................................................................................... 7
Health
Under Valued ......................................................... 8
Over Valued ............................................. 8
Information Technology & Hardware
Over Valued ................................................................................ 8
Insurance
Under Valued .................................................................... 8
Leisure & Hotels
Household Goods & Textiles

Life Assurance

Over Valued .......................................................................... 9

Over Valued ............................................................... 9

Media & Entertainment

Under Valued .................................................................................... 9
Mining
Under Valued .............................................................................. 10
Oil & Gas
Personal Care & Household Products
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance

Over Valued ........................................... 10

Under Valued ................................................. 10

Under Valued ................................................... 10

Over Valued ......................................................... 11

Under Valued .................................................................. 12

Under Valued ...................................................... 12
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued .............................................................................. 13
Transport

Support Services

Under Valued .................................................................................. 13

Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices ..................................................... 15

Page 2 of 15

www.intellisys.uk.com

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

24 April 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Page 3 of 15

www.intellisys.uk.com

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

24 April 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices. On a daily
basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Profit & Loss
Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement and then utilises this data
within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a function of market
levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing
the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation
methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 4 of 15

www.intellisys.uk.com

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.
UMEC O

Price 12M Lo
288.20 248.10
347.30 347.30
231.00 165.90
400.00 305.00
815.50 552.19
1052.00 869.50
1640.00 1305.00
573.00 243.50

12M Hi
340.80
677.00
239.50
412.00
844.00
1340.00
1780.00
573.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Buy Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell

Price 12M Lo
202.00 157.00
343.20 268.60
62.25
47.00
13.50
6.80

12M Hi
245.00
425.40
72.75
19.71

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
204.55 138.85
545.70 463.50
29.38
21.84
23.13
17.34
1501.50 1169.50

12M Hi
301.85
662.50
60.39
42.91
1672.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price
1181.00
1557.00
2590.50

12M Lo
1031.00
1112.00
1979.00

12M Hi
1395.00
1589.00
2660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 5 of 15

Beta
1.98
1.42
1.34
1.14

Target
389
1045
83
8
734

Beta
1.86
1.14
1.77
1.29
1.71

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
1247
1375
2979

Beta
0.43
0.55
0.99

Over Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

Target
158
298
62
21

Over Valued

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.65
0.52
0.91
1.34
1.10
0.73
0.60
0.80

Under Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
668
619
260
367
744
1005
1137
425

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

24 April 2012

Price
2224.00
198.10
2275.00
1461.00
232.40
175.50

12M Lo
1597.00
107.50
1523.00
1025.00
148.00
109.00

12M Hi
2274.00
206.00
2408.00
1590.00
253.00
186.50

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy

Target
1779
180
2384
1490
357
239

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.08
1.07
1.47
1.22
1.29
1.01

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
260.10
124.70
751.50
1217.00
458.50
264.60
48.75
216.75
605.50
422.25
1120.00
59.00
95.75
656.00
618.00
117.00
104.50
48.27
1018.00
2283.00

12M Lo
214.60
67.50
540.50
1025.00
326.50
264.60
35.50
180.00
383.75
239.25
1095.00
38.00
83.25
510.00
374.00
103.50
76.95
28.71
715.00
1404.00

12M Hi
333.70
151.50
859.50
1414.00
518.50
403.20
98.25
247.50
630.00
671.50
1489.00
76.75
124.50
725.00
706.50
135.30
153.50
52.75
1125.00
2558.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1095.00 643.50
594.00 434.30
139.50
86.75
186.10 180.90
207.00 128.50
1240.00 714.00
1400.00 800.00
1786.00 1039.00
0.19
0.14
175.50 120.50
227.50 212.00

12M Hi
1095.00
701.50
146.50
340.60
222.00
1285.00
1886.00
1857.00
0.28
208.00
295.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell

Page 6 of 15

Target
310
67
670
1248
206
369
198
764
564
432
3131
141
69
1459
609
87
8
13
1065
1765

Beta
0.84
1.45
1.01
0.68
1.07
1.09
0.80
0.56
1.05
1.32
1.04
1.11
1.35
0.89
1.10
0.97
1.59
1.50
1.89
1.44

Target
467
721
162
396
193
842
1985
1250
0
250
129

Beta
0.76
1.18
1.35
1.47
2.17
0.99
1.29
1.43
0.64
1.60
1.13

Over Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

24 April 2012

Price
82.63
400.70
290.00
703.00
437.50
396.00
320.00
961.50
8.12
312.70
2139.00
200.40
175.00
2253.00
652.00
1647.00

12M Lo
62.50
225.60
252.50
395.80
280.00
306.30
235.00
636.50
7.25
224.00
1501.00
135.60
150.00
1649.00
488.00
1375.00

12M Hi
124.00
426.50
358.00
747.50
483.70
429.60
393.50
1119.00
12.00
360.00
2220.00
204.80
250.00
2300.00
690.00
2236.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Target
261
313
471
678
416
337
529
1270
5
306
1667
218
147
2082
662
1456

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.32
1.59
0.98
2.29
1.41
0.76
1.41
1.40
0.86
1.77
0.99
1.77
1.07
0.85
1.52
1.39

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
510.50 445.00
290.10 277.00
307.80 263.50
319.30 310.45
25.88
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
362.80
420.05
81.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1215.00 977.00
803.00 588.50
290.40 290.40
303.70 232.00
16.50
3.29
681.00 544.50
2068.00 1892.00

12M Hi
1233.00
841.00
409.70
332.20
35.12
720.50
2189.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
22.88
16.00
225.00 222.40
1426.00 1092.00
607.00 375.00
7.50
7.50
17.14
9.36
3.31
2.20
44.25
36.00
271.70 269.50
12.63
5.20
786.50 570.00
52.80
52.80
294.10 217.00
356.50 301.80
51.00
26.00
165.75 127.30
2999.00 2153.00
909.75 633.00
38.75
21.50

12M Hi
23.75
304.50
1600.00
741.00
18.00
19.91
8.70
106.00
405.90
31.00
1030.00
151.40
313.80
402.20
51.00
448.50
3060.00
909.75
77.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

Page 7 of 15

Target
994
1496
714
660
-30
808
993

Beta
0.60
0.60
0.93
0.33
1.40
0.63
0.58

LT Rec
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
28
247
522
199
10
27
3
98
402
1145
1172
283
280
381
21
354
2084
461
22

Beta
0.71
0.49
1.36
1.03
0.65
1.45
0.97
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.48
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.07
0.56
0.78
0.56
1.33

Under Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Beta
0.52
0.45
0.64
0.73
0.77

Over Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
C LINTON C ARDS
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS
JD SPORTS FASHION
KESA ELEC TRIC ALS
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Target
308
359
550
413
25

Over Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

24 April 2012

Price 12M Lo
660.00 498.00
35.25
35.25
601.00 521.00

12M Hi
665.00
59.00
694.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
418
46
769

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.39
0.76
0.36

Intellisys

Under Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
HARVARD INTL.
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
43.75
21.75
570.00 405.00
305.00 233.25
92.50
92.50

12M Hi
44.00
577.50
310.00
145.00

ST Rec
LT
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong

Price 12M Lo
566.50 464.00
194.60 154.10
30.50
14.50
673.50 296.90
56.00
41.00
164.00 105.80
165.75
96.00

12M Hi
645.00
391.40
35.00
717.00
101.50
172.80
244.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1198.00 787.00
319.30 270.60
143.20 109.60
418.40 336.00
400.00 340.50
680.00 576.00
102.00
99.60
362.00 285.00

12M Hi
1754.00
427.00
151.80
449.00
424.70
764.50
139.80
385.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.48
0.38
0.93
0.65

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Target
400
584
54
257
336
375
75

Beta
0.76
1.20
0.66
0.96
1.16
1.01
1.06

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-8450
7171
2334
84
6471
4471
2759
6206

Beta
0.51
0.49
0.51
0.31
0.50
0.32
0.43
0.50

Under Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
32
465
361
149

Over Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

Rec
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
PSION
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

24 April 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Price 12M Lo
1944.00 1742.00
58.50
26.50
182.80 136.70
722.75 610.00
517.50 410.00
171.20 114.00
1425.00 955.00
474.30 371.20
262.20 215.60
154.00 100.60
10.00
9.14
120.90 109.50
281.00 254.90
412.00 380.50
1800.00 1409.00
276.60 183.30
96.45
84.60

12M Hi
2642.00
96.15
250.00
752.00
523.50
175.80
1497.00
535.00
336.80
174.00
15.57
153.70
335.00
468.30
1872.00
278.30
112.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy

Target
3106
27
673
564
552
161
1656
420
333
116
-200
176
306
575
1556
265
152

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.08
1.73
0.95
0.44
0.86
1.00
1.31
1.41
1.02
1.26
1.30
0.99
0.85
0.72
1.02
0.94
1.26

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
299.10 275.30
176.00 161.75
116.30
89.80
145.30
98.47
725.50 509.00
333.00 294.00

12M Hi
450.30
255.00
135.00
165.31
797.50
376.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
172.30 116.17
108.38
91.25
679.00 618.50
32.25
32.25
415.50 343.40
771.00 522.50
413.10 313.90
217.20 157.70
83.90
51.65
6.13
4.11
1111.00 1038.00
45.00
41.50
340.00 198.25
28.20
26.21
114.37
76.25
74.00
68.50
31.00
30.75
572.50 416.00
91.25
78.50
824.00 578.00
3.40
3.35

12M Hi
187.40
138.00
850.00
56.25
505.50
809.50
451.00
258.00
89.90
8.18
1255.00
67.00
340.00
39.25
168.00
102.25
54.25
641.50
151.00
880.00
11.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.26
0.58
1.67
1.66
1.72
0.81

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
97
138
654
-79
494
606
346
183
81
69
1155
89
167
8
29
232
508
1742
118
888
54

Beta
1.31
0.51
0.61
1.04
1.09
1.05
1.52
1.42
1.52
1.46
0.66
0.86
0.35
0.51
0.81
1.45
1.57
1.30
0.86
1.29
1.32

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
435
177
83
160
316
121

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
YELL GROUP

24 April 2012

Price
2294.00
304.60
1140.00
1898.50
985.00
5280.00
3376.00
13.75
1167.00
1128.50

12M Lo
2138.50
237.90
900.50
1667.00
941.00
4580.00
2712.50
13.12
928.00
764.00

12M Hi
3181.00
340.00
1491.00
2560.00
1646.00
7565.00
4595.00
47.00
2366.00
1550.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
5686
319
1013
4243
869
1589
4740
-59
4718
1026

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.75
0.95
1.38
1.40
1.92
0.33
1.42
0.94
2.10
1.78

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
MELROSE RESOURC ES
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL A(LON)
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

Price
1388.00
429.70
327.70
10.75
892.00
130.25
118.00
369.60
2110.00
2179.50
290.20
1475.00
733.50

12M Lo
1144.00
363.20
291.86
9.00
530.00
120.50
95.25
310.00
1883.50
1890.50
278.00
945.50
469.90

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
515.11
14.75
968.00
314.00
288.00
500.75
2402.00
2489.00
397.50
1601.00
763.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
127.75 108.75
321.90 285.00
3601.00 3100.00

12M Hi
151.06
387.90
3660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.38
2811.50
376.30
516.50
1458.00
4.00
8.02
2001.00
80.00
24.50

12M Lo
3.13
2543.50
236.80
433.00
1205.00
2.88
6.40
1818.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
5.35
3194.00
385.30
579.00
1497.00
7.20
9.50
2300.00
85.50
49.00

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 10 of 15

Beta
0.70
1.06
1.36
0.86
1.30
1.36
1.14
1.36
0.91
0.92
0.47
1.06
1.36

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Sell

Target
105
373
3321

Beta
0.87
0.74
0.34

Price 12M Lo
21.38
21.38
121.25
57.75
1612.00 1298.00
401.60 324.70
283.00 225.00
20.50
16.63
76.45
58.95
458.80 242.90
348.10 214.90
196.00 154.75
80.00
41.50
1506.00 1444.00
282.20 231.70

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-7
11007
229
1971
2024
15
1
2041
299
96

Beta
0.97
0.45
0.73
0.32
0.49
0.61
0.92
0.63
0.70
0.82

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
TIMEWEAVE
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
LOGIC A
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
MISYS
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

Target
1911
1272
408
24
782
366
635
529
6480
6539
198
459
783

Under Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

24 April 2012

12M Hi
27.00
129.75
1799.00
490.00
503.50
23.00
144.80
476.70
420.20
262.75
156.63
2109.00
312.40

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
48
63
959
1100
293
20
214
471
427
490
-22
1731
317

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.73
0.84
1.48
1.09
1.11
0.92
1.36
0.75
1.33
0.88
0.48
0.82
0.65

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR C NSL.
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Page 11 of 15

24 April 2012

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
271.80 167.80
277.80
166.00 113.70
177.00
9637.50 8800.00 10950.00
288.50 240.00
350.00
134.25 115.63
160.00
731.00 590.00
820.00
67.05
56.05
81.70
1.80
1.36
14.00
119.10
95.05
163.70
365.00 311.60
524.00
247.80 197.90
345.00
347.10 318.40
522.00
1062.00 756.50 1093.00
92.55
92.55
259.60
1265.00 977.00 1316.00
1398.00 1183.00 1906.00
1083.00 970.00 1554.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy

Target
168
123
17557
291
210
347
84
0
95
316
278
268
781
153
1195
1639
1639

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.07
0.72
0.87
0.96
0.70
0.83
0.91
0.67
1.42
1.06
1.65
1.56
1.17
1.27
0.74
1.31
1.30

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
MOUC HEL GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
WSP GROUP

Price 12M Lo
198.75 166.25
2235.00 1522.00
1094.00 740.50
244.00
99.40
836.00 570.50
353.50 270.00
1016.00 676.50
232.00 192.25
729.00 611.50
30.75
23.75
645.50 512.50
525.00 402.70
932.50 730.00
837.50 727.00
445.00 284.00
222.40 182.20
460.30 296.30
280.50 219.90
87.40
58.85
236.80 214.70
279.80 266.50
2517.00 1744.00
29.50
25.25
39.13
27.75
612.00 445.50
423.00 323.00
289.00 206.80
7.75
4.75
147.50 122.00
628.50 450.00
202.70 144.50
105.30
64.00
85.80
58.20
423.60 299.80
360.00 325.00
256.50 158.25
365.40 300.50
228.00 156.60
544.50 458.00
92.15
90.80
27.00
18.50
73.75
38.50
48.38
36.25
260.00 191.00
50.50
47.00
249.50 160.00

12M Hi
344.00
2316.00
1207.00
271.10
851.00
392.50
1030.00
318.50
767.00
39.75
671.00
568.00
1001.00
860.00
453.00
294.90
484.50
292.10
119.60
532.00
341.25
2605.00
36.00
45.50
623.00
567.00
290.00
78.00
166.50
670.00
301.00
117.50
100.90
438.00
410.00
326.00
393.20
253.00
597.50
130.90
34.00
79.75
52.88
260.00
956.25
361.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 12 of 15

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
351
1270
1317
130
720
1110
1012
558
719
100
794
1081
1051
993
488
382
439
399
147
477
818
1660
69
58
1260
449
414
-304
295
749
362
72
52
541
558
360
458
303
690
168
-8
-333
65
595
-9415
591

Beta
0.94
1.16
1.01
1.52
0.56
0.73
0.54
0.34
0.43
0.77
0.71
1.02
#NA
0.20
1.01
1.01
1.11
0.58
0.98
0.65
1.35
0.86
1.14
0.68
1.47
1.35
0.61
0.91
0.39
0.72
1.18
1.40
1.30
0.87
0.82
1.25
0.84
1.58
0.57
1.46
1.31
0.63
0.88
0.90
0.77
0.95

Under Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

24 April 2012

Price 12M Lo
210.90 161.00
31.50
30.07
431.30 389.30
70.50
59.75
693.50 472.00
171.40 155.05

12M Hi
232.10
48.92
620.00
84.00
802.00
182.70

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
256
135
355
82
470
186

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.92
0.65
0.53
1.27
0.04
0.63

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Price 12M Lo
197.90 156.00
387.75 282.00
1347.00 1015.00
483.90 302.54
190.00 190.00
575.00 440.50
1133.00 1125.00
212.60 201.60
194.50 190.00
247.60 219.96
54.00
54.00

12M Hi
223.40
505.00
1367.00
498.00
370.20
615.00
1598.00
270.20
342.00
287.40
123.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 13 of 15

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
159
640
1654
530
397
326
1741
171
378
203
152

Beta
1.41
0.94
0.81
0.77
1.08
0.83
0.94
1.28
1.38
0.88
0.85

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

24 April 2012

Price 12M Lo
318.60 278.80
653.00 569.00
741.50 623.50
1689.00 1375.00
614.50 560.00

12M Hi
333.00
659.00
751.00
1720.00
637.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
338
835
631
1445
645

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.49
0.55
0.59
0.46
0.58

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

24 April 2012

DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and
proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to
be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon the
Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of
any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will
Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party
for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.
The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction
where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of the
Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such
prohibitions apply must not access the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this
document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States,
Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so.
Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local securities laws.
Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside the UK are not covered by the
rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the
Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the
terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but
its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is
accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise.
Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a
report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions
imposed by internal rules.

Page 14 of 15

www.intellisys.uk.com

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

24 April 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange
rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 15 of 15

www.intellisys.uk.com

Intelligent Analysis Limited