Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304

II B. Tech II Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations, April/May 2012 PROBABILITY & STATISTICS (Common to CE, ME, CSS & IT) Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 70 Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** Prove the following identities: (i) P ( A1 ) =1 P ( A) (ii) For any two events A and B (a) P ( A1 B ) = P ( B ) P ( A B ) (b) P(A B1 ) = P(A) P( A B ) (iii) If B A , then P ( A B1 ) = P ( A) P ( B ) . 2 If X is a continuous random variable and Y = ax + b prove that E (1/y) = Ae (x) + b and V(y) = a2 V(x). (a) When the mean of marks was 50% and S.D 5% then 60% of the students failed in an examination? Determine the grace marks to be awarded in order to show that 70% of the students passed. Assume that the marks are normally distributed. The marks X obtained in mathematics by 1000 students in normally distributed with mean 78% and s.d 11% determine: (a) How many students got marks above 90%? (b) What was the highest mark obtained by the lowest 10% of students? (c) Semi inters quartile range. (d) Within what limits did the middle 90% of students lie. If the mean of breaking strength of copper wire is 575 Ibs, with a standard deviation of 8.3 Ibs. How large a sample must be used in order that there will be one chance in 100 that the mean breaking strength of the sample is less than 572 Ibs? To estimate the average time it takes to assemble a certain computer component, the industrial engineer at an electronic firm timed 40 technicians in the performance of the task, getting a mean of 12.73 min. and a S.D. of 2.06 min. (i) What can we say with 99% confidence about the maximum error if x = 12.73 is used as a point estimate of the actual average time required to do the job? (ii) Use the given data to construct 99% confidence interval. (iii) With what confidence we can assert that the sample mean does not differ from the true mean by more than 30 sec. Contd. in Page 2

(b)

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304 Page 2 6 (a) (b)

A coin was tossed 400 times and returned heads 216 times. Test the hypothesis that the coin is unbiased. Use a 0.05 level of significance. Producers of gutkha, claims that the nicotine content in his gutkha on the average is 1.83 mg. Can this claim accepted if a random sample of 8 gutkha of this type have the nicotine contents of 2.0, 1.7, 2.1, 1.9, 2.2, 2.1, 2.0, 1.6 mg? Use a 0.05 level of significance. Write about (M/M/1): (/FIFO) queuing system. Derive the formula for the probability distribution density function of the waiting time distribution. A manufacturer claims that only 4% of his products are defective. A random sample of 500 was taken among which 100 were defective. Test the hypothesis at 0.05 levels. An oceanographer wants to check whether the depth of the ocean in a certain region if 57.4 fathoms, as had previously been recorded. What can he conclude at the 0.05 level of significance, if reading taken at 40 random locations in the given region yielded a mean of 59.1 fathoms with a S.D. 5.2 fathoms? *****

(a) (b)

(a) (b)

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304

II B. Tech II Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations, April/May 2012 PROBABILITY & STATISTICS (Common to CE, ME, CSS & IT) Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 70 Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** In a bolt factory machines A, B, C manufacture 20%, 30%, 50% of the total of their output and 6%, 3% and 2% are defective. A bolt is drawn at random and found to be defective. What is the probability that is manufactured by machines A, B and C? A continuous random variable x has the distribution function: F(x) = 0 if x 1 = k ( x 1) 4 if 1 < x 3 = 1 if x>3 Find k and the probability density function of x. (a) (b) A box contains 9 cards numbered 1 to 9. If four cards are drawn with replacement. What is the probability that none is 1? An insurance agent accepts policies of 5 men all of identical age and good in health. The probability that a man of this age will be alive 30 years is 2/3. Find the probability that in 30 years: (i) All five men. (ii) At least one man. (iii) Almost three will be alive. The following are the times between six calls for an ambulance in a city and the patients arrival at the hospital: 27, 15, 20, 32, 18 and 26 minutes. Use these figures to judge the reasonableness of the ambulance services claim that it takes on the average 20 minutes between the call for an ambulance and patients arrival at the hospital. (a) A random sample of 100 teachers in a large metropolitan area revealed a mean weekly salary of Rs. 487 with S.D. Rs. 48. With what degree of confidence can we assert that the average weekly salary of all teachers in all area is between 472 to 502. A population ransom variable has mean 100 and S.D.16. What are the mean and S.D. of the sample mean for the random sample of size 4 drawn with replacement? In a city A 20% of a random sample of 900 school boys had a certain slight physical defect. In another city B 18.5% of a random sample of 1600 school boys had the same defect. Is the difference between the proportions significant at 0.05 level of significance? The mean yield of wheat from a district A was 210 pounds with S.D. of 10 pounds per acre from a sample of 100 plots. In another district the mean yield was 220 pounds with S.D. of 12 pounds from a sample of 150 plots. Assuming that the S.D. of yield in the entire state was 11 pounds, test whether there is any significant difference between the mean yields of crops in the two districts. Contd. in Page 2

(b)

(a)

(b)

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304 Page 2 7 (a)

(b)

Find the maximum difference that we can expect with probability 0.95 between the means of samples of sizes 10 and 12 from a normal population if their S.D. is found to be 2 and 3 respectively. A mechanist is making engine parts with axle diameters of 0.007 inch. A random sample of 10 parts shows a mean diameter of 0.742 inch with a S.D. of 0.040 inch. Compute the statistic you would use to test whether the work is meeting the specification at 0.05 level of significance. Derive the following: (i) E(n) = Ls =

(ii) Average queue length Lq = (iii) E(m/m > 0) = (iv) V(n) =

2 , ( )

. ( ) 2

*****

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304

II B. Tech II Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations, April/May 2012 PROBABILITY & STATISTICS (Common to CE, ME, CSS & IT) Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 70 Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** 1 Consider a single server queuing system with Poisson input and exponential service time. Suppose the mean arrival rate is 3 calling units per hrs. with the expected service time as 0.25 hrs. and the maximum permissible number of calling units in the system is two. Obtain the steady state probability of the number of calling units in the system and then calculate the expected number in the system? (a) A sample poll of 300 voters from district A and 200 voters from district B showed that 56% and 48% respectively, were in favour of a given candidate. At a 0.05 level of significance, test the hypothesis that the there is a difference in the districts. Two independent samples of 8 and 7 items respectively had the following values of the variables Sample I Sample II 9 11 11 13 13 11 11 14 16 10 10 8 12 10 14 -

(b)

Do the estimates of the population variance differ significantly. 3 (a) During a country wide investigation the incidence of tuberculosis was found to be 1%. In a college of 400 strength 5 reported to be affected whereas in another 1200 strength 10 were affected. (i) Dose this indicate any significant difference. (ii) if the population proportion of the tuberculosis is not known test whether the difference is significant A study shows that 16 of 200 tractors produced on one assembly line required extensive adjustments before they could be shipped, while the same was true for 14 of 400 tractors produced on another assembly line. At the 0.01 level of significance, does this support the claim that the second production line does superior work? The mean mark in mathematics in common entrance test will vary from year to year. If this variation of the mean mark is expressed subjectively by a normal distribution with mean 0 = 72 and variance 02 = 5.76. (i) What probability can we assign to the actual mean being somewhere between 71.8 and 73.4 for the next years test? (ii) Construct a 95% Bayesian interval for if the test is conducted for a random sample of 100 students from the next incoming class yielding a mean mark of 70 with S.D. of 8. (iii) What posterior probability should be assigned to the event of part (i)? Contd. in Page 2

(b)

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304 Page 2 5 (a) (b) 6 For the given three events A,B and C, verify that:

P( A B / C ) = P( A) P( B / C ) P( A B / C )

For three event A,B and C prove that P ( A B1 / C ) + P ( A B / C ) = P ( A / C ) The diameter of an elective cable say X is assumed to be a continuous random variable with p.d.f of f ( x) = kx(1 x 2 ) in 0 x 1 = 0 elsewhere find the value of k and P (0 x 1 / 2), P ( x 1 / 4) . A die is thrown 8 times. If getting a 2 or 4 is a success. Find the probability of: (i) 4 success (ii) P ( x 3) (iii) P ( x 2)

(a) (b)

Find the value of the finite population correction factor for n = 10 and N = 1000. A sample is collected from the items produced by a factory. The sample size is 81. The standard deviation of the population is 0.3. Find the standard error of the mean of sampling distribution. *****

Code: 9ABS401/9ABS304

II B. Tech II Semester (R09) Regular & Supplementary Examinations, April/May 2012 PROBABILITY & STATISTICS (Common to CE, ME, CSS & IT) Time: 3 hours Max Marks: 70 Answer any FIVE questions All questions carry equal marks ***** One card is drawn from a regular deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of card being either red or a king? A bag contains 12 balls numbered from 1 to 12. If a ball is taken at random what is the probability of having a ball with a number which is a multiple of either 2 or 3. and b such that: (i) P{x a}= P{x > a}and (ii) P{x b}= 0.05 3 A continuous random variable x has a probability density function: f ( x) = 3 x 2 , 0 x 1. Find a

(a) (b)

It has been claimed that in 60% of all solar heat installations the utility bill is reduced by at least one third. Accordingly what are the probabilities that the utility bill will be reduced by at least one third in: (i) Form of five installations. (ii) At least four of five installations. Take 30 slips of paper and label 5 each -4 and 4, from each -3 and 3, three each -2 and 2 and each -1, 0 and 1. If each slip of paper has the same probability of being drawn find the probabilities of getting -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and find the mean and variance of this distribution. (a) (b) (c) A random sample of size 100 has a S.D. of 5. What can you say about the maximum error with 95% confidence? The mean and S.D. of a population are 11,795 and 14,054 respectively. What can one assert with 95% confidence about the maximum error x = 11,795 and n = 50? Also construct the 95% confidence interval for the true mean for the above given data. In a city 325 men out of 600 men were found to be smokers. Does this information support the conclusion that the majority of men in this city are smokers. A sample of 400 items is taken from a population whose S.D. is 10. The mean of the sample is 40. Test whether the sample has come from a population with mean 38. Also calculate 95% confidence interval for the population. A random sample of 10 boys had the following I.Q.s: 70, 120, 110, 101, 88, 83, 95, 98, 107, and 100. (i) Do these data support the assumption of a population mean I.Q of 100? (ii) Find a reasonable range in which most of the mean I.Q. values of the samples of 10 boys lie? A machine repairing shop gets on average 16 machines per day (of eight hours) for repair and the arrival pattern is Poisson. At the moment there is no repair man available in the shop. The shop owner has two applicants A and B for the job of repairman. Both A and B claim the service times are exponentially distributed with mean 20 and 15 min. respectively. They demand salaries Rs. 500 and Rs. 600 per day respectively. The lost time costs Rs. 50/- per hour per machine. Assuming that the claims of the applicants are true, which one should be employed. *****

(a) (b)