POSTGRADUATE STUDIES IN

BUSINESS ECONOMICS

SEMINARY WORKS IN MODULE:

ECONOMETRICS

Title: Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

Professor: Student:
M-r Marjan Nikolov Igor Tanturovski

Skopje, April 2009

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

CONTENT:

Abstract Introduction Stock Market in Macedonia: An Overview Methodology Results and Discussion Summary and Conclusion References 4

6 7 13 15 16

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

1. Abstract:

This paper studies the Macedonian stock exchange through volatility of MBI10 stock index, trading volumes and nominal net wages on the estimated period. The aim of this study is to identify the determination of net wages and trading volume on MBI10 index. MBI10 index is composition of the ten most liquid companies in Macedonia and its movement is essential for the Macedonian stock exchange. Using the event study methodology, I found out that voluntary earnings disclosures exhibit significant stock market reactions around news releases. I also noticed a significant decrease and increase in trading volumes when good and bad news are released. Moreover, investors react more aggressively to bad news suggesting that bad news related to firms performance are more credible. Panel-data regression analyses were also performed to examine both categories. This result suggests that earning forecasts are subject to earning manipulation and less credible, then for the market. As dependent variable is MBI10 index and as explanatory variable is nominal net wages and trading volume per month. The aim of this study is to identify the determination of net wages on MBI10 index for 2008 and then for period from 2004 to 2008, afterwards I will include and compare the trading volume on MSE for the same two periods. This study demonstrates that in terms of economic crisis, the MBI10 stock index is influenced by other variables which are not indicated in this research, but in longer period of time cycles of movement of MBI10 index is relatively proper.

Keywords: stock market volatility, stock index, trading volumes and nominal net wages, market liquidity, and information content

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

2. Introduction
A common problem plaguing the low and slow growth of small developing economies is the shallow financial sector. Financial markets play an important role in the process of economic growth and development by facilitating savings and channeling funds from savers to investors. While there have been numerous attempts to develop the financial sector, small economies are also facing the problem of high volatility in numerous fronts including volatility of its financial sector. Volatility may impair the smooth functioning of the financial system and adversely affect economic performance. Similarly, stock market volatility also has a number of negative implications. One of the ways in which it affects the economy is through its effect on consumer spending (Campbell, 1996; Starr-McCluer, 1998; Ludvigson and Steindel 1999 and Poterba 2000). The impact of stock market volatility on consumer spending is related via the wealth effect. Increased wealth will drive up consumer spending. However, a fall in stock market will weaken consumer confidence and thus drive down consumer spending. Stock market volatility may also affect business investment (Zuliu, 1995) and economic growth directly (Levine and Zervos, 1996 and Arestis et al 2001). A rise in stock market volatility can be interpreted as a rise in risk of equity investment and thus a shift of funds to less risky assets. This move could lead to a rise in cost of funds to firms and thus new firms might bear this effect as investors will turn to purchase of stock in larger, well known firms. While there is a general consensus on what constitutes stock market volatility and, to a lesser extent, on how to measure it, there is far less agreement on the causes of changes in stock market volatility. Some economists see the causes of volatility in the arrival of new, unanticipated information that alters expected returns on a stock (Engle and Ng, 1993). Thus, changes in market volatility would merely reflect changes in the local or global economic environment. Others claim that volatility is caused mainly by changes in trading volume, practices or patterns, which in turn are driven by factors such as modifications in macroeconomic policies, shifts in investor tolerance of risk and increased uncertainty. The degree of stock market volatility can help forecasters predict the path of an economys growth and the structure of volatility can imply that investors now need to hold more stocks in their portfolio to achieve diversification (Krainer, J, 2002:1).

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index This case is more serious for small developing economies like Macedonia, with attempt to broaden their financial sector by developing their stock market. Unlike mature stock markets of advanced economies, the stock markets of less developed economies like Macedonia began to develop rapidly only in the last two decades and are sensitive to factors such as changes in the levels of economic activities, changes in the political and international economic environment and also related to the changes in the macro economic variables. Therefore, in this paper, we examine if the Macedonian Stock market is volatile and if so, then what is the role of nominal net wages being one of the most important macroeconomic variables on the volatility of the stock index. This article benefits from developments in the measurement of volatility through econometric techniques. Here, the Least squares method is used to estimate the conditional variance of Macedonias stock index from January 2004 to December 2008. This method allows for an objective determination of the presence of volatility. The result of estimates of stock index volatility is then related to changes in the net wages and trading volume. The second section of the paper provides an overview of the Macedonian stock market. The third section of the paper provides an exposition of the methodology used in this study. The fourth section provides a summary of the results and its discussion. The last section provides a summary and conclusion.

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

3. Stock Market in Macedonia: An Overview

Macedonias Stock Exchange has existed since 1995, with a small fund of one million Deutsche marks. The founders were 13 banks, three insurance companies and three saving houses. The call market was introduced on 28 March 1996, initially being summoned twice a week. The market operates through market officials verbally calling for orders on each particular security and the brokers then shout their orders. Since 2004 the market has been summoned four times a week, i.e. Monday to Thursday. The stock market has a key role to play in promoting Macedonia as a financial service centre of repute1. It has become quite obvious that having a reputable domestic stock exchange is one of the major attributes that sophisticated financial services players look for when making their investment decisions, as this increases efficiency in trading. The stock exchange provides a market for motivated buyers and sellers of shares. This improves the convenience in the trading of shares and it also encourages local investment, as the investors have confidence in putting their savings in institutions like this. The government has also assisted in the development of the market by exempting tax on dividends for listed companies and has commenced the float of shares in government owned enterprises. In March 2001, the electronic trading on MSE was introduced and in the summer of the same year the Macedonian stock index (MBI) was established composed by five most liquid shares. The MSE is not a highly liquid market though liquidity is improving over time. In absolute terms, the stock exchange has made some progress. The number of listed companies has grown from five in 2001 to ten in 2005, the market capitalization was increased and MBI was extended to MBI10 index. In order to bring more development to the stock market there are lots of challenges ahead for the stock exchange such as increasing public awareness about the operation of the MSE, re - looking at the stringency of listing rules, finding ways to encourage more listings and staff training to improve the operations of the MSE.

4. Methodology

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

The data needed for this research were provided by the State Statistical Office of RM and the Macedonian Stock exchange. They consist of monthly time series on the MBI10 index, nominal net average wage and the trading volume for the period 2004 - 2008. Analysis of the values of the nominal net average wage show that they move consistently upwards during the examined sample period. As for the values of the MBI10 index, bigger oscillations are evident mostly in the last years of the sample period. The Chart 1 and Chart 2 below give graphical presentation of the MBI10 index for 2008 and from 2004 2008 respectively.
M I1 in e in2 0 B 0 dx 08
80 00 70 00 60 00 50 00 40 00 30 00 20 00 10 00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 S rie e s1

Source MSE

Chart 1

Chart 1 indicates that in 2008 MBI10 index constantly decreases and from the beginning of the year it is reduced almost twice folds.

MBI 10 2004-2008
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 2004-2008

Source: MSE

Chart 2

Chart 2 indicates that 2004 and 2005 were constant but 2006 shows wakening and 2007 was the best year for the MBI10 index.
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Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

The Chart 3 and Chart 4 below give graphical presentation of the nominal average net wages for 2008 and from 2004 to 2008 respectively.

Nominal average net wages 2008

16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Series1

Source: State statistical office in Macedonia Chart 3

In 2008, the nominal average net wages arise from 15.555MKD to 17.363MKD, that is 11, 63% increase t in the examined period only.
Nominal avrage net wages 2004-2008
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2004 2004-2008

Source: State statistical office in Macedonia Chart 4

Analysis of the values of the nominal net average wage show that they move consistently upwards during the examined sample period, in five years of examined period nominal average net wages upraised from 11.870 to 17.363 or 46,28%. As said previously, this research is an attempt to find out whether there exists any relationship between the MBI10 index and the nominal net average wage in the country in

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index the examined period. Thus, the dependant variable is the MBI10 index and the nominal net average wages are explanatory variables. The list of variables and regression parameters that shall be used in the estimation is presented in Table 1 below.
Dependent Variable: MBI_10 Method: Least Squares Sample: 1 12 MBI_1001=C(1)+C(2)*NTO_PLATI01 Included observations: 12 Variable Coefficient MBI10 40754.62 Net wages -2.222777 R-squared 0.862995 Adjusted R-squared 0.849295 S.E. of regression 669.5756 Sum squared resid 4483314. Log likelihood -94.01306 Durbin-Watson stat 1.865424 Source: E-Views 3.1 (student version)

Std. Error t-Statistic 4511.724 9.033048 0.280065 -7.936636 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent vary Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 4979.583 1724.787 16.00218 16.08299 62.99019 0.000013

Table 1 Y = B0 + B1*X

Regression formula used for this research is: As we can see from table above this regression has negative coefficient because the short period of time was included and other variables that vas not taken here influent on MBI10. R-squared displays a simple linear regression analysis of independent variable against the dependent. As we can see from table 1 86,2995% of the change in MBI10 can be explained by the change in independent variable. R-squared results displayed here are shows that connection is strong.
Dependent Variable: MBI10 Method: Least Squares MBI10=C(1)+C(2)* PLATI Sample: 2004:01 2008:12 Included observations: 60 Variable Coefficient MBI10 -10638.84 Net wages 1.038744 R-squared 0.405465 Adjusted R-squared 0.395215 S.E. of regression 1868.653 Sum squared resid 2.03E+08 Log likelihood -536.0977 Durbin-Watson stat 0.144239 Source: E-Views 3.1 (student version)

Std. Error t-Statistic 2295.097 -4.635465 0.165161 6.289300 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 3715.750 2402.858 17.93659 18.00640 39.55530 0.000000

Table 2

In table 2, above, 60 observations have been included, period from 2004 to 2008 per month, both for MBI10 index and average net wages. As we can see results is completely different from table 1. Number of observations changes the look of regression. In order to get more reliable data about MBI10 index and volatility of

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index Macedonias stock market in examined period in table 3 was included one more independent variable, trading volume.

Trading volume on MSE 2004-2008

14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 2004-2008

Source: MSE

Chart 5

From chart 5 we can see that trading volume has few high picks in 2006 and 2007, and 2007 shows constant growth of trading volume. In 2008 the worldwide economic crisis influenced Macedonias stock exchange and trading volume fell rapidly.
Dependent Variable: MBI10 Method: Least Squares Sample: 2004:01 2008:12 Included observations: 60 Variable Coefficient MBI 10 -10183.41 Net wages 0.965167 Trading volume 0.000329 R-squared 0.476578 Adjusted R-squared 0.458212 S.E. of regression 1768.653 Sum squared resid 1.78E+08 Log likelihood -532.2759 Durbin-Watson stat 0.391829 Source: E-Views 3.1 (student version)

Std. Error t-Statistic 2178.433 -4.674650 0.158542 6.087762 0.000118 2.782820 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0073 3715.750 2402.858 17.84253 17.94725 25.94938 0.000000

Table 3

Multiple regression equitation shows that R square is 47, 66% and the change in MBI10 can be explained by the change in two independent variables. The adjusted R square is adjusted by the sample size and is useful when either increasing or decreasing the number of independent variables in the analysis. When several redundant independent variables are added, the standard R squared may increase marginally, if the adjusted R square reduces, indicates the overall weaker relationship. The Durbin-Watson statistic is employed to determine if sequential residuals are correlated. One of the assumptions of regression analysis is that residuals are independent of each other.

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Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index Sometimes, however, the data set may unknowingly contain an order effect, meaning that a previous measurement could influence the outcome of the successive observations. DurbinWatson statistic detected positive autocorrelation at 95% of confidence. Therefore obtained results should be considered with caution, having in mind possible consequences to the inferential process when serial correlation in disturbances is present. Standard error takes value 2178,433 on result of regression analysis. F statistic is 25,9494, therefore analysis is significant. The result of estimates of stock index volatility is then related to changes in the net wages and trading volume. The fact that the net real wage was not statistically significant in the short run indicates that the MBI10 in Macedonias stock exchange in the examined period was not influenced by the changes in the real wage levels in the short run. Maybe this is because the real wage responds to the inflation rate more sensitively than the nominal one or maybe fear of world economic crisis is killing investors will. Measured properly, Macedonia's inflation rate for 2008 would be at least 12%. We have often heard the excuse throughout the year that inflation is high but it's imported. Macedonia has a fixed rate of exchange pegged to the Euro. This effectively means we import all our goods and services at a constant Euro rate. Thus by definition the inflationary effect from increased prices of imports cannot be higher in Macedonia than that in the Euro zone. The 2008 Euro zone overall inflation rate is only 4%. For the first time in the last ten years, we now have negative real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation rate) of at least 3%. The savings and wealth of Macedonia's citizens is being eroded every day. As people realize this effect, they shift their savings to consumption which in Macedonia's case also leads to a direct increase in the trade deficit. It should be noted that somewhat inadequate and uncertain classifications of the MBI10 related data used in the paper might be regarded as one of the reasons for such results. In fact, one of the recommendations for development and improvement of the financial sector in Macedonia was improvement of the system of information trough regular surveys (several times per annum). To get clearer picture about Macedonian stock exchange its good to make one more regression for the 2004-2006 period with 36 included observations where 2007 and 2008 is excluded. MSE has many unusual movements and suspicious trading in this period. Few broker houses were also excluded from MSE in this period for violation trading rules. Results for 2004-2006 are presented in the table below.
Dependent Variable: MBI10

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Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

Method: Least Squares Date: 04/29/09 Time: 11:08 Sample: 2004:01 2006:12 Included observations: 36 Variable Coefficient C -18003.95 NTO_PLATI01 1.580232 PROMET 0.000018 R-squared 0.832545 Adjusted R-squared 0.822627 S.E. of regression 411.5906 Sum squared resid 5590427. Log likelihood -386.0135 Durbin-Watson stat 0.971382 Source: E-Views (student version)

Std. Error t-Statistic 1631.751 -11.034340 0.129342 12.286446 0.000065 -1.1141140 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.2740 4226.563 2116.856 17.10653 17.25472 81.90100 0.000000

Table 4

Source: MSE

Chart 6

Again, results are completely different from previous examinations, but closer to the first period examined in 2008. Durbin-Watson statistic presents with 95% confidence, that positive autocorrelation is detected. R square presents that 0,083% of the change in MBI10 can be explained by the change in two independent variables, average net wages and trading volume. Standard error takes value 411,5907 on the result of regression analysis. F statistic is 25,9494, therefore analysis is also significant.

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6. Results and Discussion

Achieved results express influence of independent variables on MBI10 index, but we can conclude that they are not the only one that influence on MBI10 index. Nominal net average wage constantly grows in examined period but from 2007 MBI10 index constantly falls. World economic crisis was introduced officially in 2008, but the volatility of stock market announced the crisis in 2007. Many foreign investment funds that were present in the Macedonian stock exchange, freehand for their investments and stock holders withdrew their money, making a very big gap in MSE.

Trading volume by market shares from:01.01.2008 to:31.12.2008 Equitie s Max. price 6.999,00 11.151,00 126.999,0 0 2.100,00 632 2.480,00 10.828,00 14.900,00 12.900,00 37.102,00 Min. price 2.550,00 2.850,00 30.000,00 550 100 1.094,00 2.675,00 2.714,00 2.263,00 7.600,00 Starting price 6.825,00 11.151,00 123.000,00 2.052,00 580 1.094,00 9.860,00 13.999,00 12.700,00 37.102,00 Closing price 2.750,00 3.000,00 32.000,00 590 101 1.299,00 2.760,00 3.000,00 2.390,00 9.000,00 No. of transactions 4.012 5.102 1.981 4.199 3.139 1.070 1.245 1.926 957 880 Volume 259.061 110.439 7.358 428.915 937.991 153.793 43.742 31.533 21.578 8.169 Value 1.291.933.603, 00 776.136.655,00 552.840.425,00 534.131.528,00 375.011.104,00 327.202.775,00 281.641.055,00 268.955.229,00 164.610.184,00 149.445.023,00

Source: MSE Table 5 As we can see from table 4 trading volume for the ten most liquid equities on the Macedonian stock exchange market in 2008 looks very bad. The difference between the starting and closing is almost fourfold. Only in case of construction company Mavrovo there is a positive move, but in their case control packet of the company was overtaken by strategic investor Ingra dd from Croatia. There are a lot of discussions about this case. One of them is presented by Den Doncev in the magazine Fokus 24.april 2009 in article HOW 800.000 EUROS WERE STOLEN FROM STOCKHOLDERS IN ADG MAVROVO. He is presenting his suspicion about overtaking

Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index the company and insiders information that lead to big criminal activity, probably made by the management team and some close relations. In his article he said: Final result of my research is this article, where I can prove that the Mavrovo case is a classic example of insider trading. So, with information that was not publicly known, certain group of people, which may be either from the top management in Mavrovo or Ingra, or even from the highest positions in the state institutions, profited a staggering 800.000EURs. The stockholders were manipulated to sell their shares for a minimal price, because no one announced that INGRA already started the overtaking process and offered a price of 2.500MKD per share. Mavrovo case shows how many MSE, aware or not, is corrupted or incompetent. In this case MSE did not fulfill one of their basic tasks, protecting the integrity of stock market and provide equal position to all participants on this market. (Den Doncev, Fokus, 2009) Also, in this case, some of Macedonian printed or electronic media participated in creating a public perception which was totally wrong. They aware or not participate in dark agenda of certain structures, which intentions were to create panic among ADG Mavrovo stockholders in order to make a profit illegally. (Den Doncev, Fokus, 2009) Its still not very clear why MSE at first prohibit the trading with Mavrovo shares, and after one month prohibition was thrown away, without any explanation. How this could happen and how Macedonian stock exchange can look thru abnormally big trading with Mavrovo shares stays unanswered. Is there any responsibility in the Macedonian stock exchange, because they did not protect the small stockholders from manipulations? Who were the insiders that stole 800.000 euro? Many questions related to this case have not been answered yet, hopefully, the state institutions will find the insiders and will punish them accordingly.

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Measuring MSE volatility with MBI10 stock index

E. Summary and Conclusion

Understanding the stock market risk and return behavior is important for all countries but it is of bigger importance to developing countries especially where the markets consist of risk averse investors as there are not many opportunities to invest and diversify the investment. The degree of volatility presence in the stock market would lead investors to demand a higher risk premium, creating higher cost of capital, which impedes investment and slows economic development. This study shows the level of volatility (risk) presence in the Macedonian stock market, which is still in the development phase. It characterizes the risk and return behavior of the listed firms on the MSE. The robustness of this analysis is that it has allowed to test for the presence of volatility for specific firms and if the analysis was done on aggregate data, then it would been of less value and probably misleading. The firms, which have appeared to be volatile, are the ones, which are sensitive to government regulations, where the liquidity has been low over the years. Interest rates in emerging economies have grown over the past decade (Bilson, et al.) and this is no exception to the case of Macedonia. Over the period of the study there has been an increase in the interest rates and this has impacted on the stock return volatility. The extant literature suggests that a wide range of factors may be relevant in explaining the stock return volatility. Such variables include goods prices, money supply, real activity, exchange rates, political risks, oil prices, trade sector, and regional stock market indices. However, in emerging markets not all factors are at play in explaining the stock return volatility but factors like levels of political risks, goods prices, money supply and exchange rates may be analyzed to see the empirical links with the stock returns volatility. The findings of this research do have some implications for the investors in Macedonia as volatility in the stock return of a firm stems from the fact that stock returns may no longer be seen as the true intrinsic value of a firm and thus the investors might start losing confidence in the stock market.

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7. References:

State statistical office in Macedonia Macedonian stock exchange, annual publications Alan O. Sykes - The Inaugural Coase Lecture, An Introduction to Regression Analysis International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 8 (2007) Stock market liquidity and information asymmetry around Voluntary earnings announcements: New evidence from France - Faten LAKHAL IRG ESA
Universit de Paris XII

Arestis, P., P.O. Demetriades and K.B. Luintel (2001)Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(2):16-41.

Bilson, C.M., Brailsford, T.J. and Hooper,V.J. (1999)Selecting Macroeconomic Variables as Explanatory Factors of Emerging Stock Market Returns. Working Paper

Poterba, J. M (2000)Stock Market Wealth and Consumption, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(2):99-118. Den Doncev, magazine Fokus 24.april 2009, article HOW 800.000 EUROS WERE
STOLEN FROM STOCKHOLDERS IN ADG MAVROVO