SUMMARY

The Banking Sector, one of the core sectors, has undergone metamorphosis in the light of liberalization and globalization. The sector seems to be optimistic of posting strong growth in the couple of years in the view of a reasonable surge in demand. The rise of retail lending in emerging economies like India has been of recent origin. Asia Pacifics vast population, combined with high savings rates, explosive economic growth, and underdeveloped retail banking services, provide the most significant growth opportunities for banks. Banks will have to serve the retail banking segment effectively in order to utilize the growth opportunity. A detailed analysis of Banking Sector has been covered in respect of past growth and performance. Under this project to better understand the Industry I have used Fundamental tools to make it more authentic and meaningful.

An economy-industry-company (E.I.C) approach has been followed under Fundamental Analysis which covers effect of Recession, the impact of inflation, FDIs, Export, and GDP etc. on Banking Sector. The Industry Analysis has been done with the help of SWOT analysis and industry life cycle. For Company Analysis as a part of Fundamental tool I have undertaken with the comparative analysis of ICICI Bank, AXIS Bank and HDFC Bank along with the help of ratio analysis. The fundamental aspect consists of financial and Non-Financial analysis of these companies.

At the end conclusion and recommendations have been specified so as to make the project work more meaningful and purposeful.

Equity Analysis

CONTENTS
Chapter No. Name of the concept Introduction Need of the study Objectives of the study I Scope of the study Importance of the study Methodology of the study Limitations of the study II III IV V VI VII Review of Literature Industry Profile Company Profile Data analysis and interpretation Findings, Suggestions and Conclusion Bibliography Page No.

Equity Analysis

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION

Equity Analysis

INTRODUCTION
India is a developing country. Nowadays many people are interested to invest in financial markets especially on equities to get high returns, and to save tax in honest way. Equities are playing a major role in contribution of capital to the business from the beginning. Since the introduction of shares concept, large numbers of investors are showing interest to invest in stock market. In an industry plagued with skepticism and a stock market increasingly difficult to predict and contend with, if one looks hard enough there may still be a genuine aid for the Day Trader and Short Term Investor. The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person agrees to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to buy or sell depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to rise, he will buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These simple statements are the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices, because they refer to human expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans expectations are neither easily quantifiable nor predictable. If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell for (i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other investors expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should sell for isn't important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's future earnings that the average investor cannot disprove Fundamental analysis and technical analysis can co-exist in peace and complement each other. Since all the investors in the stock market want to make the maximum profits possible, they just cannot afford to ignore either fundamental or technical analysis.

Equity Analysis

NEED OF THE STUDY

To start any business capital plays major role. Capital can be acquired in two ways by issuing shares or by taking debt from financial institutions or borrowing money from financial institutions. The owners of the company have to pay regular interest and principal amount at the end. Stock is ownership in a company, with each share of stock representing a tiny piece of ownership. The more shares you own, the more of the company you own. The more shares you own, the more dividends you earn when the company makes a profit. In the financial world, ownership is called Equity. Advantages of selling stock: A company can raise more capital than it could borrow. A company does not have to make periodic interest payments to creditors. A company does not have to make principal payments

Stock/shares play a major role in acquiring capital to the business in return investors are paid dividends to the shares they own. The more shares you own the more dividends you receive. The role of equity analysis is to provide information to the market. An efficient market relies on information: a lack of information creates inefficiencies that result in stocks being misrepresented (over or under valued). This is valuable because it fills information gaps so that each individual investor does not need to analyze every stock thereby making the markets more efficient.

Equity Analysis

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The objective of this project is to deeply analyze our Banking Sector for investment purpose by monitoring the growth rate and performance on the basis of historical data.

The main objectives of the Project study are:

To study the overall growth of Indian Economy which is growing at a fast pace. Detailed analysis of Banking Sector which is gearing towards international standards

Analyze the impact of qualitative factors on industrys and companys prospects

Comparative analysis of three main banks in the industry ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Banks through fundamental analysis.

invest.

Suggesting as to which companys shares would be best for an investor to

Equity Analysis

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of the study is identified after and during the study is conducted. The project is based on tools like fundamental analysis and ratio analysis. Further, the study is based on information of last five years.

The analysis is made by taking into consideration three banks i.e. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and AXIS Banks.

The scope of the study is limited for a period of five years. The scope is limited to only the fundamental analysis of the chosen stocks.

IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY

Decisions like whether you should buy or sell when trading in the share market is a difficult task to do. It requires split-hair analysis of the market. To do so one also needs to have excellent understanding of the market. Equity analysis forms an integral part of the share trading experience. Equity analysis decides the stance one would take in the share trading industry. Finding out the highs and lows in the market and analyzing the equity is of utmost importance before making any sort of investment. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis form part of the equity analysis.

Equity Analysis

METHODOLOGY
Research design or research methodology is the procedure of collecting, analyzing and interpreting the data to diagnose the problem and react to the opportunity in such a way where the costs can be minimized and the desired level of accuracy can be achieved to arrive at a particular conclusion. The methodology used in the study for the completion of the project and the fulfillment of the project objectives.

The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and each stock is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen. The stocks are chosen from the automobile sector.

The sample size for the number of stocks is taken as three for fundamental analysis of stocks as fundamental analysis is very exhaustive and requires detailed study.

Equity Analysis

LIMITATIONS

This study has been conducted purely to understand Equity analysis for investors. The study is restricted to three companies based on Fundamental analysis. The study is limited to the companies having equities. Detailed study of the topic was not possible due to limited size of the project. There was a constraint with regard to time allocation for the research study i.e. for a period of 45 days.

Suggestions and conclusions are based on the limited data of five years.

Equity Analysis

CHAPTER II - REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Equity Analysis

SECURITY ANALYSIS
Investment success is pretty much a matter of careful selection and timing of stock purchases coupled with perfect matching to an individuals risk tolerance. In order to carry out selection, timing and matching actions an investor must conduct deep security analysis.

Investors purchase equity shares with two basic objectives; 1. To make capital profits by selling shares at higher prices. 2. To earn dividend income.

These two factors are affected by a host of factors. An investor has to carefully understand and analyze all these factors. There are basically two approaches to study security prices and valuation i.e. fundamental analysis and technical analysis

The value of common stock is determined in large measure by the performance of the firm that issued the stock. If the company is healthy and can demonstrate strength and growth, the value of the stock will increase. When values increase then prices follow and returns on an investment will increase. However, just to keep the savvy investor on their toes, the mix is complicated by the risk factors involved. Fundamental analysis examines all the dimensions of risk exposure and the probabilities of return, and merges them with broader economic analysis and greater industry analysis to formulate the valuation of a stock.

Equity Analysis

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. It is the study of economic, industry and company conditions in an effort to determine the value of a companys stock. Fundamental analysis typically focuses on key statistics in companys financial statements to determine if the stock price is correctly valued. The term simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price movements.

Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing. The basic philosophy underlying the fundamental analysis is that if an investor invests re.1 in buying a share of a company, how much expected returns from this investment he has.

The fundamental analysis is to appraise the intrinsic value of a security. It insists that no one should purchase or sell a share on the basis of tips and rumors. The fundamental approach calls upon the investors to make his buy or sell decision on the basis of a detailed analysis of the information about the company, about the industry, and the economy. It is also known as top-down approach. This approach attempts to study the economic scenario, industry position and the company expectations and is also known as economic-industry-company approach (EIC approach).

Equity Analysis

Thus the EIC approach involves three steps: 1. Economic analysis 2. Industry analysis 3. Company analysis

Equity Analysis

1. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the economy grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and vice versa. When the level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when the level of economic activity is high, stock prices are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of macro economic environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock prices.

The commonly analyzed macro economic factors are as follows:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP indicates the rate of growth of the economy. It represents the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in the economy. It consists of personal consumption expenditure, gross private domestic investment and government expenditure on goods and services and net exports of goods and services. The growth rate of economy points out the prospects for the industrial sector and the return investors can expect from investment in shares. The higher growth rate is more favorable to the stock market.

Savings and investment: It is obvious that growth requires investment which in turn requires substantial amount of domestic savings. Stock market is a channel through which the savings are made available to the corporate bodies. Savings are distributed over various assets like equity shares, deposits, mutual funds, real estate and bullion. The savings and investment patterns of the public affect the stock to a great extent.

Equity Analysis

Inflation: Along with the growth of GDP, if the inflation rate also increases, then the real growth would be very little. The effects of inflation on capital markets are numerous. An increase in the expected rate of inflation is expected to cause a nominal rise in interest rates. Also, it increases uncertainty of future business and investment decisions. As inflation increases, it results in extra costs to businesses, thereby squeezing their profit margins and leading to real declines in profitability.

Interest rates: The interest rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. A decrease in interest rate implies lower cost of finance for firms and more profitability. More money is available at a lower interest rate for the brokers who are doing business with borrowed money. Availability of cheap funds encourages speculation and rise in the price of shares.

Tax structure: Every year in March, the business community eagerly awaits the Governments announcement regarding the tax policy. Concessions and incentives given to a certain industry encourage investment in that particular industry. Tax reliefs given to savings encourage savings. The type of tax exemption has impact on the profitability of the industries.

Infrastructure facilities: Infrastructure facilities are essential for the growth of industrial and agricultural sector. A wide network of communication system is a must for the growth of the economy. Regular supply of power without any power cut would

Equity Analysis

boost the production. Banking and financial sectors also should be sound enough to provide adequate support to the industry. Good infrastructure facilities affect the stock market favorably.

2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS An industry is a group of firms that have similar technological structure of production and produce similar products and Industry analysis is a type of business research that focuses on the status of an industry or an industrial sector (a broad industry classification, like "manufacturing"). Irrespective of specific economic situations, some industries might be expected to perform better, and share prices in these industries may not decline as much as in other industries. This identification of economic and industry specific factors influencing share prices will help investors to identify the shares that fit individual expectations

Industry Life Cycle: The industry life cycle theory is generally attributed to Julius Grodensky. The life cycle of the industry is separated into four well defined stages. Pioneering stage: The prospective demand for the product is promising in this stage and the technology of the product is low. The demand for the product attracts many producers to produce the particular product. There would be severe competition and only fittest companies survive this stage. The producers try to develop brand name, differentiate the product and create a product image. In this situation, it is difficult to select companies for investment because the survival rate is unknown. Rapid growth stage: This stage starts with the appearance of surviving firms from the pioneering stage. The companies that have withstood the competition grow Equity Analysis

strongly in market share and financial performance. The technology of the production would have improved resulting in low cost of production and good quality products. The companies have stable growth rate in this stage and they declare dividend to the shareholders. It is advisable to invest in the shares of these companies. Maturity and stabilization stage: the growth rate tends to moderate and the rate of growth would be more or less equal to the industrial growth rate or the gross domestic product growth rate. Symptoms of obsolescence may appear in the technology. To keep going, technological innovations in the production process and products should be introduced. The investors have to closely monitor the events that take place in the maturity stage of the industry. Decline stage: demand for the particular product and the earnings of the companies in the industry decline. It is better to avoid investing in the shares of the low growth industry even in the boom period. Investment in the shares of these types of companies leads to erosion of capital.

Growth of the industry: The historical performance of the industry in terms of growth and profitability should be analyzed. The past variability in return and growth in reaction to macro economic factors provide an insight into the future.

Nature of competition: Nature of competition is an essential factor that determines the demand for the particular product, its profitability and the price of the concerned

Equity Analysis

company scrips. The companies' ability to withstand the local as well as the multinational competition counts much. If too many firms are present in the organized sector, the competition would be severe. The competition would lead to a decline in the price of the product. The investor before investing in the scrip of a company should analyze the market share of the particular company's product and should compare it with the top five companies.

SWOT analysis: SWOT analysis represents the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat for an industry. Every investor should carry out a SWOT analysis for the chosen industry. Take for instance, increase in demand for the industrys product becomes its strength, presence of numerous players in the market, i.e. competition becomes the threat to a particular company. The progress in R & D in that industry is an opportunity and entry of multinationals in the industry is a threat. In this way the factors are to be arranged and analyzed.

Equity Analysis

3. COMPANY ANALYSIS
In the company analysis the investor assimilates the several bits of information related to the company and evaluates the present and future values of the stock. The risk and return associated with the purchase of the stock is analyzed to take better investment decisions. The present and future values are affected by a number of factors.

Competitive edge of the company: Major industries in India are composed of hundreds of individual companies. Though the number of companies is large, only few companies control the major market share. The competitiveness of the company can be studied with the help of the following; Market share: The market share of the annual sales helps to determine a companys relative competitive position within the industry. If the market share is high, the company would be able to meet the competition successfully. The companies in the market should be compared with like product groups otherwise, the results will be misleading. Growth of sales: The rapid growth in sales would keep the shareholder in a better position than one with stagnant growth rate. Investors generally prefer size and growth in sales because the larger size companies may be able to withstand the business cycle rather than the company of smaller size. Stability of sales: If a firm has stable sales revenue, it will have more stable earnings. The fall in the market share indicates the declining trend of company,

Equity Analysis

even if the sales are stable. Hence the stability of sales should be compared with its market share and the competitors market share.

Earnings of the company: Sales alone do not increase the earnings but the costs and expenses of the company also influence the earnings. Further, earnings do not always increase with increase in sales. The companys sales might have increased but its earnings per share may decline due to rise in costs. Hence, the investor should not only depend on the sales, but should analyze the earnings of the company.

Financial analysis: The best source of financial information about a company is its own financial statements. This is a primary source of information for evaluating the investment prospects in the particular companys stock. Financial statement analysis is the study of a companys financial statement from various viewpoints. The statement gives the historical and current information about the companys operations. Historical financial statement helps to predict the future and the current information aids to analyze the present status of the company. The two main statements used in the analysis are Balance sheet and Profit and Loss Account.

The balance sheet is one of the financial statements that companies prepare every year for their shareholders. It is like a financial snapshot, the company's financial situation at a moment in time. It is prepared at the year end, listing the company's current assets and liabilities. It helps to study the capital structure of the company. It is better for the investor to avoid a company with excessive debt component in its capital structure. From

Equity Analysis

the balance sheet, liquidity position of the company can also be assessed with the information on current assets and current liabilities.

Ratio analysis: Ratio is a relationship between two figures expressed mathematically. Financial ratios provide numerical relationship between two relevant financial data. Financial ratios are calculated from the balance sheet and profit and loss account. The relationship can be either expressed as a percent or as a quotient. Ratios summarize the data for easy understanding, comparison and interpretations.

Ratios for investment purposes can be classified into profitability ratios, turnover ratios, and leverage ratios. Profitability ratios are the most popular ratios since investors prefer to measure the present profit performance and use this information to forecast the future strength of the company. The most often used profitability ratios are return on assets, price earnings multiplier, price to book value, price to cash flow, and price to sales, dividend yield, return on equity, present value of cash flows, and profit margins.

a) Return on Assets (ROA) ROA is computed as the product of the net profit margin and the total asset turnover ratios. ROA = (Net Profit/Total income) x (Total income/Total Assets)

This ratio indicates the firm's strategic success. Companies can have one of two strategies: cost leadership, or product differentiation. ROA should be rising or keeping pace with the company's competitors if the company is successfully pursuing either of

Equity Analysis

these strategies, but how ROA rises will depend on the company's strategy. ROA should rise with a successful cost leadership strategy because the companys increasing operating efficiency. An example is an increasing, total asset, turnover ratio as the company expands into new markets, increasing its market share. The company may achieve leadership by using its assets more efficiently. With a successful product differentiation strategy, ROA will rise because of a rising profit margin.

b) Return on Investment (ROI) ROI is the return on capital invested in business, i.e., if an investment Rs 1 crore in men, machines, land and material is made to generate Rs. 25 lakhs of net profit, then the ROI is 25%. The computation of return on investment is as follows:

Return on Investment (ROI) = (Net profit/Equity investments) x 100

As this ratio reveals how well the resources of a firm are being used, higher the ratio, better are the results. The return on shareholders investment should be compared with the return of other similar firms in the same industry. The inert-firm comparison of this ratio determines whether the investments in the firm are attractive or not as the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher.

c) Return on Equity Return on equity measures how much an equity shareholder's investment is actually earning. The return on equity tells the investor how much the invested rupee is earning

Equity Analysis

from the company. The higher the number, the better is the performance of the company and suggests the usefulness of the projects the company has invested in. The computation of return on equity is as follows:

Return on equity = (Net profit to owners/value of the specific owner's Contribution to the business) x 100

The ratio is more meaningful to the equity shareholders who are invested to know profits earned by the company and those profits which can be made available to pay dividend to them.

d) Earnings per Share (EPS) This ratio determines what the company is earning for every share. For many investors, earnings are the most important tool. EPS is calculated by dividing the earnings (net profit) by the total number of equity shares. The computation of EPS is as follows:

Earnings per share = Net profit/Number of shares outstanding

The EPS is a good measure of profitability and when compared with EPS of similar other companies, it gives a view of the comparative earnings or earnings power of a firm. EPS calculated for a number of years indicates whether or not earning power of the company has increased.

Equity Analysis

e) Dividend per Share (DPS) The extent of payment of dividend to the shareholders is measured in the form of dividend per share. The dividend per share gives the amount of cash flow from the company to the owners and is calculated as follows:

Dividend per share = Total dividend payment / Number of shares outstanding

The payment of dividend can have several interpretations to the shareholder. The distribution of dividend could be thought of as the distribution of excess profits/abnormal profits by the company. On the other hand, it could also be negatively interpreted as lack of investment opportunities. In all, dividend payout gives the extent of inflows to the shareholders from the company.

f) Dividend Payout Ratio From the profits of each company a cash flow called dividend is distributed among its shareholders. This is the continuous stream of cash flow to the owners of shares, apart from the price differentials (capital gains) in the market. The return to the shareholders, in the form of dividend, out of the company's profit is measured through the payout ratio. The payout ratio is computed as follows:

Payout Ratio = (Dividend per share / Earnings per share) * 100 The percentage of payout ratio can also be used to compute the percentage of retained earnings. The profits available for distribution are either paid as dividends or retained

Equity Analysis

internally for business growth opportunities. Hence, when dividends are not declared, the entire profit is ploughed back into the business for its future investments.

g) Dividend Yield Dividend yield is computed by relating the dividend per share to the market price of the share. The market place provides opportunities for the investor to buy the company's share at any point of time. The price at which the share has been bought from the market is the actual cost of the investment to the shareholder. The market price is to be taken as the cum-dividend price. Dividend yield relates the actual cost to the cash flows received from the company. The computation of dividend yield is as follows

Dividend yield = (Dividend per share / Market price per share) * 100

High dividend yield ratios are usually interpreted as undervalued companies in the market. The market price is a measure of future discounted values, while the dividend per share is the present return from the investment. Hence, a high dividend yield implies that the share has been under priced in the market. On the other hand a low dividend yield need not be interpreted as overvaluation of shares. A company that does not pay out dividends will not have a dividend yield and the real measure of the market price will be in terms of earnings per share and not through the dividend payments.

Equity Analysis

h) Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) The P/E multiplier or the price earnings ratio relates the current market price of the share to the earnings per share. This is computed as follows:

Price/earnings ratio = Current market price / Earnings per share

This ratio is calculated to make an estimate of appreciation in the value of a share of a company and is widely used by investors to decide whether or not to buy shares in a particular company. Many investors prefer to buy the company's shares at a low P/E ratio since the general interpretation is that the market is undervaluing the share and there will be a correction in the market price sooner or later. A very high P/E ratio on the other hand implies that the company's shares are overvalued and the investor can benefit by selling the shares at this high market price.

i) Debt-to-Equity Ratio Debt-Equity ratio is used to measure the claims of outsiders and the owners against the firms assets. Debt-to-equity ratio = Outsiders Funds / Shareholders Funds

The debt-equity ratio is calculated to measure the extent to which debt financing has been used in a business. It indicates the proportionate claims of owners and the outsiders against the firms assets. The purpose is to get an idea of the cushion available to outsiders on the liquidation of the firm.

Equity Analysis

CHAPTER III - INDUSTRY PROFILE

Equity Analysis

FINANCIAL MARKETS
Finance is the pre-requisite for modern business and financial institutions play a vital role in the economic system. It is through financial markets and institutions that the financial system of an economy works. Financial markets refer to the institutional arrangements for dealing in financial assets and credit instruments of different types such as currency, cheques, bank deposits, bills, bonds, equities, etc.

Financial market is a broad term describing any marketplace where buyers and sellers participate in the trade of assets such as equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives. They are typically defined by having transparent pricing, basic regulations on trading, costs and fees and market forces determining the prices of securities that trade.

Generally, there is no specific place or location to indicate a financial market. Wherever a financial transaction takes place, it is deemed to have taken place in the financial market. Hence financial markets are pervasive in nature since financial transactions are themselves very pervasive throughout the economic system. For instance, issue of equity shares, granting of loan by term lending institutions, deposit of money into a bank, purchase of debentures, sale of shares and so on.

In a nutshell, financial markets are the credit markets catering to the various needs of the individuals, firms and institutions by facilitating buying and selling of financial assets, claims and services.

Equity Analysis

CLASSIFICATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

Financial markets

Organized markets

Unorganized markets

Capital Markets

Money Markets

Money Lenders, Indigenuos Bankers

Industrial Securities Market

Call Money Market

Primary Market

Commercial Bill Market

Secondary market

Treasury Bill Market

Government Securities Market Long-term loan market

Equity Analysis

Capital Market The capital market is a market for financial assets which have a long or indefinite maturity. Generally, it deals with long term securities which have a period of above one year. In the widest sense, it consists of a series of channels through which the savings of the community are made available for industrial and commercial enterprises and public authorities. As a whole, capital market facilitates raising of capital.

The major functions performed by a capital market are: 1. Mobilization of financial resources on a nation-wide scale. 2. Securing the foreign capital and know-how to fill up deficit in the required resources for economic growth at a faster rate. 3. Effective allocation of the mobilized financial resources, by directing the same to projects yielding highest yield or to the projects needed to promote balanced economic development.

Capital market consists of primary market and secondary market. Primary market: Primary market is a market for new issues or new financial claims. Hence it is also called as New Issue Market. It basically deals with those securities which are issued to the public for the first time. The market, therefore, makes available a new block of securities for public subscription. In other words, it deals with raising of fresh capital by companies either for cash or for consideration other than cash. The best example could be Initial Public Offering (IPO) where a firm offers shares to the public for the first time.

Equity Analysis

Secondary market: Secondary market is a market where existing securities are traded. In other words, securities which have already passed through new issue market are traded in this market. Generally, such securities are quoted in the stock exchange and it provides a continuous and regular market for buying and selling of securities. This market consists of all stock exchanges recognized by the government of India.

Money Market Money markets are the markets for short-term, highly liquid debt securities. Money market securities are generally very safe investments which return relatively low interest rate that is most appropriate for temporary cash storage or short term time needs. It consists of a number of sub-markets which collectively constitute the money market namely call money market, commercial bills market, acceptance market, and Treasury bill market.

Derivatives Market The derivatives market is the financial market for derivatives, financial instruments like futures contracts or options, which are derived from other forms of assets. A derivative is a security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. The important financial derivatives are the following:

Equity Analysis

Forwards: Forwards are the oldest of all the derivatives. A forward contract refers to an agreement between two parties to exchange an agreed quantity of an asset for cash at a certain date in future at a predetermined price specified in that agreement. The promised asset may be currency, commodity, instrument etc.

Futures: Future contract is very similar to a forward contract in all respects excepting the fact that it is completely a standardized one. It is nothing but a standardized forward contract which is legally enforceable and always traded on an organized exchange.

Options: A financial derivative that represents a contract sold by one party (option writer) to another party (option holder). The contract offers the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a security or other financial asset at an agreed-upon price (the strike price) during a certain period of time or on a specific date (exercise date). Call options give the option to buy at certain price, so the buyer would want the stock to go up. Put options give the option to sell at a certain price, so the buyer would want the stock to go down.

Swaps: It is yet another exciting trading instrument. Infact, it is the combination of forwards by two counterparties. It is arranged to reap the benefits arising from the fluctuations in the market either currency market or interest rate market or any other market for that matter.

Equity Analysis

Foreign Exchange Market It is a market in which participants are able to buy, sell, exchange and speculate on currencies. Foreign exchange markets are made up of banks, commercial companies, central banks, investment management firms, hedge funds, and retail forex brokers and investors. The forex market is considered to be the largest financial market in the world. It is a worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for the trading of currencies. Because the currency markets are large and liquid, they are believed to be the most efficient financial markets. It is important to realize that the foreign exchange market is not a single exchange, but is constructed of a global network of computers that connects participants from all parts of the world. Commodities Market It is a physical or virtual marketplace for buying, selling and trading raw or primary products. For investors' purposes there are currently about 50 major commodity markets worldwide that facilitate investment trade in nearly 100 primary

commodities. Commodities are split into two types: hard and soft commodities. Hard commodities are typically natural resources that must be mined or extracted (gold, rubber, oil, etc.), whereas soft commodities are agricultural products or livestock (corn, wheat, coffee, sugar, soybeans, pork, etc.)

Equity Analysis

INDIAN FINANCIAL MARKETS

India Financial market is one of the oldest in the world and is considered to be the fastest growing and best among all the markets of the emerging economies.

The history of Indian capital markets dates back 200 years toward the end of the 18th century when India was under the rule of the East India Company. The development of the capital market in India concentrated around Mumbai where no less than 200 to 250 securities brokers were active during the second half of the 19th century. The financial market in India today is more developed than many other sectors because it was organized long before with the securities exchanges of Mumbai, Ahmadabad and Kolkata were established as early as the 19th century. By the early 1960s the total number of securities exchanges in India rose to eight, including Mumbai, Ahmadabad and Kolkata apart from Madras, Kanpur, Delhi, Bangalore and Pune. Today there are 21 regional securities exchanges in India in addition to the centralized NSE (National Stock Exchange) and OTCEI (Over the Counter Exchange of India). However the stock markets in India remained stagnant due to stringent controls on the market economy that allowed only a handful of monopolies to dominate their respective sectors. The corporate sector wasn't allowed into many industry segments, which were dominated by the state controlled public sector resulting in stagnation of the economy

Equity Analysis

right up to the early 1990s. Thereafter when the Indian economy began liberalizing and the controls began to be dismantled or eased out; the securities markets witnessed a flurry of IPOs that were launched. This resulted in many new companies across different industry segments to come up with newer products and services.

A remarkable feature of the growth of the Indian economy in recent years has been the role played by its securities markets in assisting and fuelling that growth with money rose within the economy. This was in marked contrast to the initial phase of growth in many of the fast growing economies of East Asia that witnessed huge doses of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) spurring growth in their initial days of market decontrol. During this phase in India much of the organized sector has been affected by high growth as the financial markets played an all-inclusive role in sustaining financial resource mobilization. Many PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings) that decided to offload part of their equity were also helped by the well-organized securities market in India.

The launch of the NSE (National Stock Exchange) and the OTCEI (Over the Counter Exchange of India) during the mid 1990s by the government of India was meant to usher in an easier and more transparent form of trading in securities. The NSE was conceived as the market for trading in the securities of companies from the large-scale sector and the OTCEI for those from the small-scale sector. While the NSE has not just done well to grow and evolve into the virtual backbone of capital markets in India the OTCEI struggled and is yet to show any sign of growth and development. The integration of IT into the capital market infrastructure has been particularly smooth in India due to the

Equity Analysis

countrys world class IT industry. This has pushed up the operational efficiency of the Indian stock market to global standards and as a result the country has been able to capitalize on its high growth and attract foreign capital like never before.

The regulating authority for capital markets in India is the SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India). SEBI came into prominence in the 1990s after the capital markets experienced some turbulence. It had to take drastic measures to plug many loopholes that were exploited by certain market forces to advance their vested interests. After this initial phase of struggle SEBI has grown in strength as the regulator of Indias capital markets and as one of the countrys most important institutions.

Equity Analysis

FINANCIAL MARKET REGULATIONS

Regulations are an absolute necessity in the face of the growing importance of capital markets throughout the world. The development of a market economy is dependent on the development of the capital market. The regulation of a capital market involves the regulation of securities; these rules enable the capital market to function more efficiently and impartially. A well regulated market has the potential to encourage additional investors to partake, and contribute in, furthering the development of the economy. The chief capital market regulatory authority is Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). SEBI is the regulator for the securities market in India. It is the apex body to develop and regulate the stock market in India It was formed officially by the Government of India in 1992 with SEBI Act 1992 being passed by the Indian Parliament. Chaired by C B Bhave, SEBI is headquartered in the popular business district of Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai, and has Northern, Eastern, Southern and Western regional offices in New Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and Ahmedabad. In place of Government Control, a statutory and autonomous regulatory board with defined responsibilities, to cover both development & regulation of the market, and independent powers has been set up.

The basic objectives of the Board were identified as:

to protect the interests of investors in securities; to promote the development of Securities Market; to regulate the securities market and

Equity Analysis

For matters connected therewith or incidental thereto.

Since its inception SEBI has been working targeting the securities and is attending to the fulfillment of its objectives with commendable zeal and dexterity. The improvements in the securities markets like capitalization requirements, margining, establishment of clearing corporations etc. reduced the risk of credit and also reduced the market.

SEBI has introduced the comprehensive regulatory measures, prescribed registration norms, the eligibility criteria, the code of obligations and the code of conduct for different intermediaries like, bankers to issue, merchant bankers, brokers and subbrokers, registrars, portfolio managers, credit rating agencies, underwriters and others. It has framed bye-laws, risk identification and risk management systems for Clearing houses of stock exchanges, surveillance system etc. which has made dealing in securities both safe and transparent to the end investor.

Another significant event is the approval of trading in stock indices (like S&P CNX Nifty & Sensex) in 2000. A market Index is a convenient and effective product because of the following reasons:

It acts as a barometer for market behavior; It is used to benchmark portfolio performance; It is used in derivative instruments like index futures and index options; It can be used for passive fund management as in case of Index Funds.

Equity Analysis

Two broad approaches of SEBI is to integrate the securities market at the national level, and also to diversify the trading products, so that there is an increase in number of traders including banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, mutual funds, primary dealers etc. to transact through the Exchanges. In this context the introduction of derivatives trading through Indian Stock Exchanges permitted by SEBI in 2000 AD is a real landmark. SEBI has enjoyed success as a regulator by pushing systemic reforms aggressively and successively (e.g. the quick movement towards making the markets electronic and paperless rolling settlement on T+2 bases). SEBI has been active in setting up the regulations as required under law.

STOCK EXCHANGES IN INDIA

Stock Exchanges are an organized marketplace, either corporation or mutual organization, where members of the organization gather to trade company stocks or other securities. The members may act either as agents for their customers, or as principals for their own accounts. As per the Securities Contracts Regulation Act, 1956 a stock exchange is an association, organization or body of individuals whether incorporated or not, established for the purpose of assisting, regulating and controlling business in buying, selling and dealing in securities.

Equity Analysis

Stock exchanges facilitate for the issue and redemption of securities and other financial instruments including the payment of income and dividends. The record keeping is central but trade is linked to such physical place because modern markets are computerized. The trade on an exchange is only by members and stock broker do have a seat on the exchange. List of Stock Exchanges in India Bombay Stock Exchange National Stock Exchange OTC Exchange of India Regional Stock Exchanges 1. Ahmedabad 2. Bangalore 3. Bhubaneswar 4. Calcutta 5. Cochin 6. Coimbatore 7. Delhi 8. Guwahati 9. Hyderabad 10. Jaipur 11. Ludhiana 12. Madhya Pradesh 13. Madras 14. Magadh 15. Mangalore 16. Meerut 17. Pune 18. Saurashtra Kutch 19. Uttar Pradesh 20. Vadodara

Equity Analysis

BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE

A very common name for all traders in the stock market, BSE, stands for Bombay Stock Exchange. It is the oldest market not only in the country, but also in Asia. In the early days, BSE was known as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association." It was established in the year 1875 and became the first stock exchange in the country to be recognized by the government. In 1956, BSE obtained a permanent recognition from the Government of India under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.

In the past and even now, it plays a pivotal role in the development of the country's capital market. This is recognized worldwide and its index, SENSEX, is also tracked worldwide. Earlier it was an Association of Persons (AOP), but now it is a demutualised and corporatised entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act, 1956, pursuant to the BSE (Corporatisation and Demutualization) Scheme, 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

BSE Vision The vision of the Bombay Stock Exchange is to "Emerge as the premier Indian stock exchange by establishing global benchmarks."

BSE Management Bombay Stock Exchange is managed professionally by Board of Directors. It comprises of eminent professionals, representatives of Trading Members and the Managing Director. The Board is an inclusive one and is shaped to benefit from the market intermediaries participation.

The Board exercises complete control and formulates larger policy issues. The day-today operations of BSE are managed by the Managing Director and its school of professional as a management team.

BSE Network The Exchange reaches physically to 417 cities and towns in the country. The framework of it has been designed to safeguard market integrity and to operate with transparency. It provides an efficient market for the trading in equity, debt instruments and derivatives. Its online trading system, popularly known as BOLT, is a proprietary system and it is BS 7799-2-2002 certified. The BOLT network was expanded, nationwide, in 1997. The surveillance and clearing & settlement functions of the Exchange are ISO 9001:2000 certified.

BSE Facts BSE as a brand is synonymous with capital markets in India. The BSE SENSEX is the benchmark equity index that reflects the robustness of the economy and finance. It was the First in India to introduce Equity Derivatives First in India to launch a Free Float Index First in India to launch US$ version of BSE Sensex First in India to launch Exchange Enabled Internet Trading Platform First in India to obtain ISO certification for Surveillance, Clearing & Settlement 'BSE On-Line Trading System (BOLT) has been awarded the globally recognized the Information Security Management System standard BS7799-2:2002. First to have an exclusive facility for financial training Moved from Open Outcry to Electronic Trading within just 50 days

BSE with its long history of capital market development is fully geared to continue its contributions to further the growth of the securities markets of the country, thus helping India increases its sphere of influence in international financial markets.

NATIONAL LIMITED

STOCK

EXCHANGE

OF

INDIA

The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of the High Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchanges, which recommended promotion of a National Stock Exchange by financial institutions (FIs) to provide access to investors from all across the country on an equal footing. Based on the recommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest of the Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992 as a taxpaying company unlike other stock Exchange in the country. On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commenced operations in November 1994 and operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000. NSE GROUP National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd. (NSCCL) It is a wholly owned subsidiary, which was incorporated in August 1995 and commenced clearing operations in April 1996. It was formed to build confidence in clearing and settlement of securities, to promote and maintain the short and consistent

settlement cycles, to provide a counter-party risk guarantee and to operate a tight risk containment system.

NSE.IT Ltd. It is also a wholly owned subsidiary of NSE and is its IT arm. This arm of the NSE is uniquely positioned to provide products, services and solutions for the securities industry. NSE.IT primarily focuses on in the area of trading, broker front-end and backoffice, clearing and settlement, web-based, insurance, etc. Along with this, it also provides consultancy and implementation services in Data Warehousing, Business Continuity Plans, Site Maintenance and Backups, Stratus Mainframe Facility Management, Real Time Market Analysis & Financial News.

India Index Services & Products Ltd. (IISL) It is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL Ltd. to provide a variety of indices and index related services and products for the Indian Capital markets. It was set up in May 1998. IISL has a consulting and licensing agreement with the Standard and Poor's (S&P), world's leading provider of investible equity indices, for co-branding equity indices.

National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) NSE joined hands with IDBI and UTI to promote dematerialization of securities. This step was taken to solve problems related to trading in physical securities. It commenced operations in November 1996.

NSE Facts It uses satellite communication technology to energize participation from around 400 cities in India. NSE can handle up to 1 million trades per day. It is one of the largest interactive VSAT based stock exchanges in the world. The NSE- network is the largest private wide area network in India and the first extended C- Band VSAT network in the world. Presently more than 9000 users are trading on the real time-online NSE application. Today, NSE is one of the largest exchanges in the world and still forging ahead. At NSE, we are constantly working towards creating a more transparent, vibrant and innovative capital market.

OVER THE COUNTER EXCHANGE OF INDIA

OTCEI was incorporated in 1990 as a section 25 company under the companies Act 1956 and is recognized as a stock exchange under section 4 of the securities Contracts Regulation Act, 1956. The exchange was set up to aid enterprising promotes in raising finance for new projects in a cost effective manner and to provide investors with a transparent and efficient mode of trading Modeled along the lines of the NASDAQ market of USA, OTCEI introduced many novel concepts to the Indian capital markets such as screen-based nationwide trading, sponsorship of companies, market making

and scrip less trading. As a measure of success of these efforts, the Exchange today has 115 listings and has assisted in providing capital for enterprises that have gone on to build successful brands for themselves like VIP Advanta, Sonora Tiles & Brilliant mineral water, etc.

Need for OTCEI: Studies by NASSCOM, software technology parks of India, the venture capitals funds and the governments IT tasks Force, as well as rising interest in IT, Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology and Media shares have repeatedly emphasized the need for a national stock market for innovation and high growth companies.

Innovative companies are critical to developing economics like India, which is undergoing a major technological revolution. With their abilities to generate employment opportunities and contribute to the economy, it is essential that these companies not only expand existing operations but also set up new units. The key issue for these companies is raising timely, cost effective and long term capital to sustain their operations and enhance growth. Such companies, particularly those that have been in operation for a short time, are unable to raise funds through the traditional financing methods, because they have not yet been evaluated by the financial world.

CHAPTER IV - COMPANY PROFILE

About the Company

Investleaf Management Solutions incorporated as Private Limited company in the year 2010 has established itself as one of the Premier Investment Consultancy Firms, known for making investing simpler, more understandable and profitable for the investors. The company directly and through its affiliate programs offers a wide range of products & services viz: Equity, Derivatives, Currency Futures, Commodities Trading, IPO's, Mutual Funds, Insurance, Real Estate, Portfolio Management Services & Depository Services all under one roof, for the convenience and benefit of its customers.

Equities
Investleaf offers you the best 3-IN-1 online trading accounts from different online trading firms, blending the best of technology with traditional broking. Investleaf offers Equity Trading through its business partner Angel Broking Ltd. Angel Broking provided the prospect of researched investing to its clients, which was hitherto restricted only to the institutions. Research for the retail investor did not exist prior to Angel Broking.

Mutual Funds
Investleaf has a dedicated team of research analysts specializing in mutual funds. This is a unique feature not found in many other firms. The team comprises analysts from different fields such as economics, statistics and finance among others. This diverse background helps us to analyze funds and performance on a variety of parameters both conventional as well as unconventional. We have developed a proprietary ranking of mutual funds which is a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors. The team is equipped to serve both institutional and retail clients. Our research includes independent objective analysis as well as interactions with fund managers and asset management companies.

Commodities
Investleaf has a dedicated team of analysts specializing in commodities and commodities trading. The team comprises analysts from different fields such as economics, agriculture science, statistics, and finance among others. This diverse manpower mix helps us to do a multi perspective analysis of all commodities and filter the information as per the duration of the trading call. The team is equipped to serve both institutional and retail clients. Our research, well recognized in the industry is based on primary surveys, interactions with physical markets players, fundamental, derivatives, technical and statistical analysis, giving it a sense of completeness. Analysts have access to the latest market data, charts, market intelligence etc. constantly analyzing the data to facilitate your trading decisions. Our research is aimed not only at the long-term traders & investors, but also caters to the needs of short term / intra day traders. The research calls are disseminated to clients through SMS Alerts, RM calls and email.

Real Estate
Investleaf brings together a range of services under a single roof.

New Projects aggregated across builders and pass our stringent project and builder selection criteria and could be Commercial, Industrial or Residential properties.

Facilities Management for Commercial and Residential Complexes for housekeeping, building management and office support solutions. Finance for Commercial and Residential Properties that call for specialist expertise. Property Insurance Advisory on the right Insurance solutions.

Investment Research
Investleaf offers the most comprehensive deal coverage that covers Indias investment eco-system. Investleaf offers information and reports on M&A, Project Financing, Initial Public Offerings, Private Placements, Private Equity and Venture Capital transactions including transaction terms, structures, deal amounts and valuations. It also contains entity information on all companies involved in these transactions including target companies, investors and advisors. The hosted platform provides information on demand and helps reduce research time, allowing users to spend more time on analysis. Investleaf uses advanced web tools to provide information in an intuitive and userfriendly format. Investleaf also provides information in spreadsheet & pdf formats to make life of a financial researcher easy. Investleaf is supported by a team of highly skilled analysts and journalists who understand the information needs of clients. Users associated with private equity, venture capital, investment banking, corporate law, finance and consulting or anyone else with an interest in the Indian deal landscape will find Investleaf as an indispensable resource. Vision Investleaf Management Solutions' Vision is to build brand Value by innovating to deliver consumer value and customer leadership faster, better and more completely than our competition. This Vision is supported by two fundamental principles that provide the foundation for all of our activities: Organizational Excellence and Core Values. Attaining this Vision requires superior and continually improving performance in every area and at every level of the organization.

Investleaf's performance will be guided by a clear and concise strategic statement for

each business unit and by an ongoing Quest for Excellence within all operational and staff functions. This Quest for Excellence requires hiring, developing and retaining a diverse workforce of the highest caliber. To support this Quest, each function employs metrics to define, and implements processes to achieve, world-class status. Mission The mission of Investleaf Management Solutions is to provide results-oriented advertising, public relations, and marketing designed to meet our client's objectives by providing strong marketing concepts and excelling at customer service. We seek to establish a long lasting partnership with our clients. We desire to measure success for our clients through awareness, increased service, or other criteria mutually agreed upon between the agency and the clients. We are committed to maintaining a rewarding environment in which we can accomplish our mission. Management Team Investleaf Management Solutions was founded by Srinivas Gattupalli and Vamshi Battini. Investleaf believes in successfully delivering value for its customers, partners and shareholders by way of superior products , services and timely execution. Srinivas Gattupalli An MBA Graduate & Financial Research Expert over 12 years of proven skill-sets in leading Research & Financial services companies and currently pioneering his entrepreneurial venture Investleaf Management Solutions. His areas of expertise include Initial Public Offerings, Mergers & Acquisitions, Private Equity and Venture Capital.

Mr. Gattupalli is competent in leading functional teams by effectively mentoring and guiding individual members, recruiting personnel, and training new recruits for successfully developing new products. A committed financial expert desirous of assuming wider & more challenging roles for spearheading organizational growth & profitability by utilizing vast domain knowledge & functional abilities. His other areas of business interest include web site designing, knowledge dissemination through web portals, internet and digital marketing, and content development services. Mr. Gattupalli joined as Research Associate with CapitalIQ in the year 2000 and gradually moved on to work for leading research companies including Factset Research Systems, R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company and GlobalData. Vamshi B An MCA graduate and co-promoter of Investleaf Management Solutions, Mr. Vamshi is efficient in providing guidance and quality technology services to the organization. Mr. Vamshi is based out in U.S from where he leads the marketing efforts of the organization. His 10 years stint in the industry and his association with major companies has offered him complex challenges which he handled efficiently.

CHAPTER V DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATIONS

1. ECONOMY ANALYSIS
Economic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country. Economic analysis is a process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy are analyzed. Economic analysis is important in order to understand exact condition of an economy. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has estimated Indias gross domestic product (GDP) to expand at 9.2 per cent in 2010-11 as compared to the growth of 7.4 per cent in 2009-10. Overall growth in industrial output was 10.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2010. The growth in the industrial sector is expected to increase at 9.4 per cent in 2010-11, as compared to 9.2 per cent in 2009-10. According to a survey by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and ASCON, around 50 segments (out of 127) in the manufacturing sector grew by 39 per cent, entering the 'excellent growth' category, during April-December 2010-11 compared to 29 sectors (22.9 per cent) in April-December 2009 which shows a marked improvement. Also, services sector is projected to expand by 10 per cent as compared to 8.6 per cent last year, led by the trade and transport segment. The major turnaround is expected from the agriculture and allied sector, which is being projected to grow by 5.7 per cent in 201011. As per Use-based classification, the Sectoral growth rates in October 2010 over October 2009 are 7.7 per cent in Basic goods, 22 per cent in Capital goods and 9.5 per cent in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have expanded by 31 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively in the reported month. The industrial output registered a robust growth of 10.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2010. Among the three major constituents of the IIP, manufacturing and electricity recorded higher growth rates of 11.3 per cent and 8.8 per cent in October as against their corresponding levels of 10.8 per cent and 4 per cent for the corresponding month in 2009. The third constituent mining index registered 6.5 per cent in October 2010.

The Economic scenario Foreign injections amounted to US$ 6.4 billion in October 2010, which was almost 25 per cent of the total inflows in the stock market registered so far in 2010. The net foreign fund investment crossed the US$ 100 billion mark on November 8 2010, since the liberalization policy was implemented in 1992. As per the data given by SEBI, the total figure stood at US$100.9 billion, wherein US$ 4.78 billion were infused in November itself. The humungous increase in investment mirrors the foreign investors faith in the Indian markets. FIIs have made investments worth US$ 4.11 billion in equities and poured US$ 667.71 million into the debt market. Data sourced from SEBI shows that the number of registered FIIs stood at 1,738 and number of registered sub-accounts rose to 5,592 as of November 10, 2010. As on December 17, 2010, India's foreign exchange reserves totalled US$ 294.60 billion, an increase of US$ 11.13 billion over the same period last year, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Weekly Statistical Supplement. Moreover, India received foreign direct investment (FDI) equity worth US$ 12.39 billion during April-October, 2010-11, taking the cumulative amount of FDI inflows during April 2000 - October 2010 to US$ 179.45 billion, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). The services sector comprising financial and non-financial services attracted 21 per cent of the total FDI equity inflow into India, with FDI worth US$ 2,163 million during April-October 2010, while telecommunications including radio paging, cellular mobile and basic telephone services attracted second largest amount of FDI worth US$ 1,062 million during the same period. Metallurgical industries were the third highest sector attracting FDI worth US$ 920 million followed by power sector which garnered US$ 729 million during the financial year April-October 2010.

Exports from India have increased by 26.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to touch US$ 18.9 billion in November 2010, urging the Government to exude confidence that overall shipments in 2010-11 may touch US$ 215 billion. For the April-November 2010 period, exports have grown by 26.7 per cent to US$ 140.3 billion, while imports totaled up to US$ 222 billion, expanding 24 per cent.

India's logistics sector is witnessing increased activity. According to the Indian Shipping ministry, the country's major ports handled 44.4 million tones of cargo during September 2010, 4.5 per cent higher as compared to 5.9 per cent growth in September 2009. Leading consultants Frost&Sullivan, as cited by The Economic Times, are expecting traffic to boost at Indian ports from 814.1 million tones (MT) to 1,373.1 MT from 2010 to 2015 at a CAGR of 11 per cent. The study group has underlined three key trends in the sector, namely, increase in containerized cargo, increased private sector participation and traffic diversion toward minor ports.

Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA) in India during the period of JanuaryNovember 2010 were 4.93 million as compared to the FTAs of 4.46 million during the same period of 2009, showing a growth of 10.4 per cent. The Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEE) during the period of January-November 2010 were US$ 12.88 billion as compared to US$ 10.67 billion during the same period of 2009, registering a growth rate of 20.7 per cent, according to data released by the Ministry of Tourism.

The total telephone subscriber base in the country reached 742.12 million as on October 31, 2010, taking the overall tele-density to 62.51, according to the figures released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). Also the wireless subscriber base increased to 706.69 million.

The average assets under management of the mutual fund industry stood at US$ 160.44 billion for the month of September 2010, according to the data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).

As per NASSCOMs Strategic Review 2010, the Indian IT-BPO sector continues to be the fastest growing segment of the industry and is estimated to aggregate revenues of USD 73.1 billion in FY2010, with the IT software and services industry accounting for USD 63.7 billion of revenues.

The cumulative production of vehicles in India grew by 32.4 per cent upto August 2010 as compared to the same period in 2009, Mr B S Meena, Secretary, Ministry of Heavy Industry, reported. Passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and two-wheeler segments had all recorded impressive growth rates of 32 per cent, 49 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively during the period upto August 2010.

According to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, jewellery shipments were worth US$ 23.57 billion in April-November 2010, registering a rise of 38.25 per cent as compared to US$ 17.05 billion in the corresponding period of 2009.

According to the Ministry of Civil Aviation, passengers carried by domestic airlines from January-November, 2010 were 46.81 million as against 39.35 million in the corresponding period of year 2009, thereby registering a growth of 18.9 per cent.

According to Ernst & Young (E&Y), a global consultancy firm, India is expected to receive more than US$ 7 billion in private equity (PE) investments in 2010, on the back of robust economic growth. According to research firm VCCEdge, mergers and acquisition (M&A) deals worth US$ 54.6 billion have been signed till December 15, 2010, significantly more than the previous high of US$ 42 billion achieved in 2007.

The HSBC Market Business Activity Index, which measures business activity among Indian services companies, based on a survey of 400 firms, rose to 60.1 in November 2010 from 56.2 in October 2010.

Agriculture Agriculture is one of the strongholds of the Indian economy and accounts for 14.6 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009-10, and 10.23 per cent (provisional) of the total exports. Furthermore, the sector provided employment to 55 per cent of the work force. India's agriculture and allied sector grew by 3.8 per cent in the first six months of the current fiscal (2010-11). Capital investment in agriculture has increased from US$ 1.2 billion in 2007-08 to US$ 3.26 billion in 2010-11 (inclusive of State Plan Scheme Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana), as per a Ministry of Agriculture press release dated August 3, 2010. In the Union Budget 2010-11, the Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee made the following announcements for the agriculture sector.

US$ 86.89 million is provided to increase the Green Revolution to the eastern region of the country comprising Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Eastern up, West Bengal and Orissa.

US$ 65.17 million has been provided to organise 60,000 pulses and oil-seed villages in rain-fed areas in 2010-11 and provide an integrated intervention for water harvesting, watershed management and soil health to improve productivitiy of the dry land farming areas.

Banks have been consistently meeting the targets set for agricultural credit flow in the past few years. For the year 2010-11, the target has been set at US$ 81.47 billion.

In addition to the 10 mega food park projects already being set up, the government has decided to set up five more such parks. External commercial borrowings are available for cold storage for preservation or storage of agricultural and allied products, marine products and meat.

Growth potential story

The data centre services market in the country is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7 per cent between 2009 and 2011, to touch close to US$ 2.2 billion by the end of 2011, according to research firm IDC Indias report published in March 2010. The report further stated that the overall India data centre services market in 2009 was estimated at US$ 1.39 billion.

According to a report by research and advisory firm Gartner published in March 2010, the domestic BPO market is expected to grow at 25 per cent in 2010 to touch US$ 1.2 billion by 2011. Further, the BPO market in India is estimated to grow 19 per cent through 2013 and grow to US$ 1.8 billion by 2013. According to the report, the domestic India BPO services market grew by 7.3 per cent year-on-year in 2009.

The BMI India Retail Report Quarter 3, 2010 released in May 2010, forecasts that total retail sales will grow from US$ 353 billion in 2010 to US$ 543.2 billion by 2014.

According to a report titled 'India 2020: Seeing, Beyond', published by domestic broking major, Edelweiss Capital in March 2010, stated that India's GDP is set to quadruple over the next ten years and the country is likely to become an over US$ 4 trillion economy by 2020.

India will overtake China to become the world's fastest growing economy by 2018, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research arm of London-based Economist magazine.

Economic Survey 2009-10 Highlights

According to the Economic Survey 2009-10, tabled in Parliament on February 25, 2010 by the Union Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, the economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2009-10. The expected growth comes on the back of the growth momentum witnessed in Q2 2009-10 estimates, when the economy recorded a GDP growth of 7.9 per cent as against 7.5 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2008-09. The industrial and the service sectors are growing at 8.2 and 8.7 per cent respectively, as per the advance estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2009-10, released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). The Economic Survey estimates: Growth rate of GDP at factor cost expected to be 7.2 per cent. Growth in the manufacturing sector has more than doubled from 3.2 per cent in 2008-09 to 8.9 per cent in 2009-10. Growth of private investment demand picked up in 2009-10. Savings rate as a percentage of GDP in 2008-09 stood at 32.5 per cent. Growth rate of capital formation as a percentage of GDP in 2008-09 stood at 34.9 per cent. Foreign Exchange Reserves in 2009-10 as of December 31, 2009 stood at US$ 283.5 billion. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services have retained their growth momentum at around 10 per cent in 2009-10. The main highlights of the survey are: The recovery in GDP growth for 2009-10, as indicated in the advance estimates, is broad based. Seven out of eight sectors/sub-sectors show a growth rate of 6.5 per cent or higher. Sectors including mining and quarrying; manufacturing; and electricity, gas and water supply have significantly improved their growth rates at over 8 per cent in comparison with 2008-09. The

construction sector and trade, hotels, transport and communication have also improved their growth rates over the preceding year. Strong growth in automobiles, rubber and plastic products, wool and silk textiles, wood products, chemicals and miscellaneous manufacturing; modest growth in nonmetallic mineral products. The opening of the telecom sector led to rapid growth in subscriber base. From only 54.6 million telephone subscribers in 2003, the number increased to 429.7 million at the end of March 2009 and further to 562 million as of October 31, 2009 showing an addition of 96 million subscribers during the period from March to December 2009. There has been improvement in the balance of payments (BoP) situation during H1 of 2009-10 over H1 of 2008-09, reflected in higher net capital inflows and lower trade deficit. Net capital flows to India at US$ 29.6 billion in April-September 2009 remained higher as compared to US$ 12 billion in April-September 2008. During fiscal 2009-10, foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 31.5 billion from US$ 252 billion in end March 2009 to US$ 283.5 billion in end December 2009. Growth rate of gross fixed capital formation in 2009-10 has recovered, as per the revised National Accounts Statistics (NAS). Turnaround in merchandise export growth witnessed in November 2009, which has been sustained in December 2009.

ANALYSIS OF BANKING SECTOR

The rise of retail lending in emerging economies like India has been of recent origin. Asia Pacifics vast population, combined with high savings rates, explosive economic growth, and underdeveloped retail banking services, provide the most significant growth opportunities for banks. Banks will have to serve the retail banking segment effectively in order to utilize the growth opportunity. Banking strategies are presently undergoing various transformations, as the overall scenario has changed over the last couple of years. Till the recent past, most of the banks had adopted fierce cost cutting measures to sustain their competitiveness. This strategy however has become obsolete in the new light of immense growth opportunities for banking industry. Most bankers are now confident about their high performance in terms of organic growth and in realising high returns. Nowadays, the growth strategies of banks revolve around customer satisfaction. Improved customer relationship management can only lead to fulfilment of long-term, as well as, shortterm objectives of the bankers. This requires, efficient and accurate customer database management and development of well-trained sales force to develop and sustain longterm profitable customer relationship. The banking system in India is significantly different from that of the other Asian nations, because of the countrys unique geographic, social, and economic characteristics. Though the sector opened up quite late in India compared to other developed nations, like the US and the UK, the profitability of Indian banking sector is at par with that of the developed countries and at times even better on some parameters. For instance, return on equity and assets of the Indian banks are on par with Asian banks, and higher when compared to that of the US and the UK.

Banks in India are mainly classified into Scheduled Banks and Non-Scheduled Banks. Scheduled Banks are the ones, which are included in the second schedule of the RBI Act 1934 and they comply with the minimum statutory requirements. Non-Scheduled Banks are joint stock banks, which are not included in the second Schedule of the RBI Act 134, on account of the failure to comply with the minimum requirements for being scheduled.

STRENGTHS
Indian banks have compared favourably on growth, asset quality and profitability with other regional banks over the last few years. The banking index has grown at a compounded annual rate of over 51 per cent since April 2001 as compared to a 27 per cent growth in the market index for the same period. Policy makers have made some notable changes in policy and regulation to help strengthen the sector. These changes include strengthening prudential norms, enhancing the payments system and integrating regulations between commercial and co-operative banks. Bank lending has been a significant driver of GDP growth and employment. Extensive reach: the vast networking & growing number of branches & ATMs. Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. The government's regular policy for Indian bank since 1969 has paid rich dividends with the nationalisation of 14 major private banks of India. In terms of quality of assets and capital adequacy, Indian banks are considered to have clean, strong and transparent balance sheets relative to other banks in comparable economies in its region.

India has 88 scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) - 27 public sector banks (that is with the Government of India holding a stake)after merger of New Bank of India in Punjab National Bank in 1993, 29 private banks (these do not have government stake; they may be publicly listed and traded on stock exchanges) and 31 foreign banks. They have a combined network of over 53,000 branches and 17,000 ATMs. According to a report by ICRA Limited, a rating agency, the public sector banks hold over 75 percent of total assets of the banking industry, with the private and foreign banks holding 18.2% and 6.5% respectively.

Foreign banks will have the opportunity to own up to 74 per cent of Indian private sector banks and 20 per cent of government owned banks.

WEAKNESSES
PSBs need to fundamentally strengthen institutional skill levels especially in sales and marketing, service operations, risk management and the overall organisational performance ethic & strengthen human capital. Old private sector banks also have the need to fundamentally strengthen skill levels. The cost of intermediation remains high and bank penetration is limited to only a few customer segments and geographies. Structural weaknesses such as a fragmented industry structure, restrictions on capital availability and deployment, lack of institutional support infrastructure, restrictive labour laws, weak corporate governance and ineffective regulations beyond Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), unless industry utilities and service bureaus.

Refusal to dilute stake in PSU banks: The government has refused to dilute its stake in PSU banks below 51% thus choking the headroom available to these banks for raining equity capital.

Impediments in sectoral reforms: Opposition from Left and resultant cautious approach from the North Block in terms of approving merger of PSU banks may hamper their growth prospects in the medium term.

OPPORTUNITY
The market is seeing discontinuous growth driven by new products and services that include opportunities in credit cards, consumer finance and wealth management on the retail side, and in fee-based income and investment banking on the wholesale banking side. These require new skills in sales & marketing, credit and operations. \banks will no longer enjoy windfall treasury gains that the decade-long secular decline in interest rates provided. This will expose the weaker banks. With increased interest in India, competition from foreign banks will only intensify. Given the demographic shifts resulting from changes in age profile and household income, consumers will increasingly demand enhanced institutional capabilities and service levels from banks. New private banks could reach the next level of their growth in the Indian banking sector by continuing to innovate and develop differentiated business models to profitably serve segments like the rural/low income and affluent/HNI segments; actively adopting acquisitions as a means to grow and reaching the next level of performance in their service platforms. Attracting, developing and retaining more leadership capacity

Foreign banks committed to making a play in India will need to adopt alternative approaches to win the race for the customer and build a valuecreating customer franchise in advance of regulations potentially opening up post 2009. At the same time, they should stay in the game for potential acquisition opportunities as and when they appear in the near term. Maintaining a fundamentally long-term value-creation mindset.

reach in rural India for the private sector and foreign banks. With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some time-especially in its services sector-the demand for banking services, especially retail banking, mortgages and investment services are expected to be strong.

the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved a proposal from the government to amend the Banking Regulation Act to permit banks to trade in commodities and commodity derivatives.

Liberalisation of ECB norms: The government also liberalised the ECB norms to permit financial sector entities engaged in infrastructure funding to raise ECBs. This enabled banks and financial institutions, which were earlier not permitted to raise such funds, explore this route for raising cheaper funds in the overseas markets.

Hybrid capital: In an attempt to relieve banks of their capital crunch, the RBI has allowed them to raise perpetual bonds and other hybrid capital securities to shore up their capital. If the new instruments find takers, it would help PSU banks, left with little headroom for raising equity. Significantly, FII and NRI investment limits in these securities have been fixed at 49%, compared to 20% foreign equity holding allowed in PSU banks.

THREATS
Threat of stability of the system: failure of some weak banks has often threatened the stability of the system. Rise in inflation figures which would lead to increase in interest rates. Increase in the number of foreign players would pose a threat to the PSB as well as the private players.

ROAD AHEAD
Liquidity significantly tightened during the quarter with banks daily average borrowing from RBI under LAF increasing to Rs1.2tn in December as compared to Rs250bn in September. The short-term rates (call rates and 3m/6m CPs) spiked by +200bps between September-December 2010. In its second quarter monetary policy review in November, RBI raised key policy rates by 25bps to anchor inflationary expectations while in the latest mid-quarter review in December, the central bank kept rates unchanged and focused more on increasing liquidity in the system. System credit growth has improved significantly on revival in private investments - Qoq loan growth in Q3 at 6.4% v/s 3.4 in Q2. Yoy credit growth momentum has increased to 23.7% and Ytd credit expansion stands at 12.3%. To achieve RBIs full-year credit growth target of 20% yoy, the system requires Rs2.5tn credit expansion in Q4 (6.8% qoq growth). We expect FY11 credit growth target to be achieved driven by further acceleration in corporate credit demand and banks rushing to meet their PSL target (a seasonal tailwind). On the flipside, deposits have been growing at muted pace. In Q3, it grew by just 2% qoq. Both, yoy growth momentum and YTD accretion in deposits have

been significantly behind advances at 14.7% and 7% respectively. To achieve RBIs full-year deposit growth target of 18% yoy, the system requires Rs5tn mobilization in Q4 (10.3% qoq growth). Though banks are raising deposit rates quickly to capitalize on the improving credit demand, we think annual deposit growth would be lower at near 15%. Due to high inflation, retail customers have been preferring higher return yielding assets over deposits. We expect 4-7% qoq loan growth for the banks under our coverage. In-line with the system, deposit growth could be lower than advances thereby improving the C/D ratio on sequential basis. In Q4, the C/D ratio is likely to come-off though. With more frequent and significant deposit rate hikes than lending rate hikes during the past five months, we expect NIMs (currently at multi-quarter high for many banks) to contract by 10-30bps qoq in Q3. A probable decline in CASA due to substantial increase in term deposit rates (as witnessed during Q2 FY09-Q1 FY10) would also increase cost of deposits on sequential basis. We expect NII growth to be in the range of 25-30% yoy. The 25-30bps increase in the G-Sec yields could mean sequentially lower treasury income. However, the growth in the core fee income is likely to be strong driven by robust loan growth. The C/I ratio could deteriorate qoq on account of continued investments in network expansion and flattish NII growth. Asset quality of PSU banks may further show some strain while that of private banks would remain stable. Loan-loss provisioning by SBI and PNB is expected to be significantly higher thereby depressing profit growth.

3. COMPANY ANALYSIS
The company analysis shows the long-term strenght of the company that what is the financial position of the company in the market, where it stands among its competitors

and who are the key drivers of the company, what are the future plans of the company, what are the policies of government towards the company and how the stake of the company divested among different groups of people. Here, I have taken three banks namely ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank for the Fundamental Analysis:

ICICI BANK ICICI Bank Limited provides banking products and financial services in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital, and asset management to corporate and retail customers. It offers savings accounts, fixed deposits, recurring

deposits, and salary accounts; and consumer and commercial cards. The company also provides home loans, commercial vehicle loans, personal loans, car loans, and loans against securities. In addition, it offers tax saving bonds, government of India bonds, mutual funds, initial public offers, foreign exchange services, and senior citizens savings schemes; and health, overseas travel, student medical, motor, and home, insurance products, as well as invests in gold. Further, it provides cash management services and global trade services; mergers and acquisitions advisory services and private equity syndication services; financial institution, capital market, and custodial services; and structured and project finance products. Additionally, the company offers business advantage loans, vendor/dealer finance, and industry specific loans; transaction banking and CMS services; trade services; and private equity placement services. It also provides NRI banking, international banking, rural and agri banking, Internet banking, mobile banking, and phone banking services, as well as dematerialization services. ICICI Bank Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in Mumbai, India.

HDFC BANK HDFC Bank Limited provides commercial banking products and services in India. It operates in three segments: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Treasury. The Retail Banking segment offers various deposit products, including savings accounts,

current accounts, fixed deposits, recurring deposits, and demat accounts. It also provides auto, personal, commercial vehicle, home, gold, and educational loans; loans against gold, securities, property, and rental receivables; and health care finance, retail agri and tractor loans, working capital finance, construction equipment finance, and warehouse receipt loans, as well as credit cards, debit cards, depository, investment advisory, bill payments, and transactional services; and distributes life, health, and general insurance, and mutual fund products. In addition, this segment offers wealth advisory, tax planning, bonds, forex and trade services, and private banking services. The Wholesale Banking segment provides loans, non-fund facilities, and transaction services to large corporate, emerging corporate, small and medium enterprise, public sector units, government bodies, financial institutions, and medium scale enterprises. It offers commercial and transactional banking services, including working capital finance, trade services, transactional services, cash management, and structured solutions to corporate customers, mutual funds, stock exchange members, and banks. The Treasury segment offers products in the areas of foreign exchange and derivatives, money market and debt securities, and equities. The company also offers NRI banking services. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Mumbai, India.

AXIS BANK Axis Bank Limited provides corporate, retail, and business banking products and services in India. The companys deposit products include demand, savings bank, current account, and term deposits. The company also provides home loans, car loans,

personal loans, loan against shares and security, loan against property, education and consumer loans, structured finance and microfinance products, short-term loans, loans for small and medium enterprises, agriculture loans, as well as credit and debit cards, and insurance services. In addition, it engages in investing in sovereign and corporate debt, equity, and mutual funds; trading operations; derivative trading and foreign exchange operations; and central funding operations. Further, the company offers corporate advisory, placements and syndication, public issue management, project appraisal, capital market related, card, Internet banking, ATM, depository, financial advisory, NRI, international banking, cash management, and other services, as well as liability products and government services. Further, the company provides mergers and acquisitions, private equity syndication, and transaction and merchant banking services, as well as involves in equity capital markets business. It also has branches in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai. The company was formerly known as UTI Bank Limited and changed its name to Axis Bank Limited in July 2007. Axis Bank Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Mumbai, India.

ICICI Bank Comparative Balance Sheets

(Rs. in Crores)

Particulars
SOURCES OF FUNDS Capital Reserves Total

Mar-11
1,151.82 54,150.38

Mar-10
1,114.89 50,181.61

Mar-09
1,113.29 45,664.24

Mar-08
1,462.68 43,609.55

Mar-07
1,249.34 23,058.32

Minority Interest Deposits Borrowings Other Liabilities & Provisions TOTAL LIABILITIES APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Cash & Balances with RBI Balances with Banks & money at Call Investments Advances Fixed Assets Other Assets Miscellaneous Expenditure not written off TOTAL ASSETS Contingent Liability Bills for collection

1,358.22 259,106.00 125,838.86 92,618.27 534,223.55

1,270.40 241,572.30 115,698.32 79,989.68 489,827.20

910.51 261,855.75 116,066.35 57,641.23 483,251.37

731.19 276,983.23 84,566.05 78,895.39 486,248.09

509.57 248,613.63 61,659.54 59,894.44 394,984.84

21,234.00 18,151.26 209,652.78 256,019.31 5,489.55 23,676.94 0.00 534,223.84 1,022,599.66 8,530.40

27,850.28 19,293.84 186,319.78 225,778.13 3,862.29 26,722.88 0.00 489,827.20 820,519.93 6,718.86

17,875.44 17,185.94 148,107.00 266,130.47 4,497.46 29,455.06 0.00 483,251.37 867,788.40 6,002.66

29,800.75 15,527.93 160,046.76 251,401.67 4,678.35 24,792.63 0.00 486,248.09 1,310,328.54 4,290.81

19,241.04 20,448.09 120,616.69 211,399.44 4,402.55 18,877.03 0.00 394,984.84 673,611.69 4,055.39

ICICI Bank Comparative Profit & Loss Accounts

(Rs. in Crores)

Particulars
INCOME : Interest Earned Other Income Total Total II. Expenditure Interest expended Payments to/Provisions for Employees Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses Depreciation Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies Provision for Tax Fringe Benefit Tax Deferred Tax Total Total III. Profit & Loss Net Profit before Minority Interest Minority Interest Net Profit after Minority Interest Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Profit brought forward IV. Appropriations Transfer to Statutory Reserve Transfer to Other Reserves Trans. to Government /Proposed Dividend Balance carried forward to Balance Sheet Equity Dividend (%) EPS before Minority Interest EPS after Minority Interest Book Value (Unit Curr.)

Mar-11
30,081.40 31,513.30 61,594.70 55,276.51

Mar-10
30,153.71 29,446.06 59,599.77 54,756.36

Mar-09
36,250.71 28,375.94 64,626.65 61,247.23

Mar-08
34,094.96 26,436.88 60,531.84 57,416.58

Mar-07
24,002.55 17,540.24 41,542.79 38,909.39

19,342.57 4,392.60 2,777.37 739.68 25,955.80 1,624.33 0.00 444.16 61,594.70 55,276.51

20,729.19 3,678.43 2,991.89 762.87 24,861.80 1,497.20 0.00 234.98 59,599.77 54,756.36

26,487.25 3,904.30 3,128.16 806.69 25,334.91 2,138.85 65.92 -618.85 64,626.65 61,247.23

25,766.98 3,969.80 3,271.68 679.42 22,622.02 1,962.82 78.00 -934.14 60,531.84 57,416.58

17,675.72 2,636.50 2,414.01 615.50 14,806.59 1,201.34 58.72 -498.99 41,542.79 38,909.39

6,318.19 224.92 6,093.27 21.01 6,072.26 1,688.64

4,843.41 173.12 4,670.29 57.58 4,612.71 537.17

3,379.42 -197.53 3,576.95 0.83 3,576.12 549.68

3,115.26 -282.97 3,398.23 32.82 3,365.41 -7.37

2,633.40 -127.23 2,760.63 22.69 2,737.94 -243.56

1,288.00 607.23 1,878.92 4,007.76 140.00 52.56 52.56 480.13

1,007.00 945.40 1,566.42 1,688.64 120.00 41.39 41.39 460.10

940.00 1,215.93 1,433.53 537.17 110.00 28.48 28.48 420.17

1,040.00 365.68 1,435.50 549.68 110.00 26.14 26.14 401.93

780.00 648.17 1,096.27 -7.37 101.00 27.19 27.19 266.39

HDFC Bank Comparative Balance Sheets

(Rs. in Crores)
Particulars
SOURCES OF FUNDS : Capital Reserves Total Minority Interest Deposits Borrowings Other Liabilities & Provisions TOTAL LIABILITIES APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Cash & Balances with RBI Balances with Banks & money at Call Investments Advances Fixed Assets Other Assets Miscellaneous Expenditure not written off TOTAL ASSETS Contingent Liability Bills for collection 25,100.89 4,737.39 70,276.67 160,831.41 2,200.94 14,891.50 0.00 278,038.80 575,159.47 13,428.49 15,483.31 14,594.88 58,508.28 126,162.73 2,149.06 6,147.47 0.00 223,045.73 479,125.00 8,124.86 13,527.21 4,009.94 58,715.15 99,027.37 1,732.28 6,479.77 0.00 183,491.72 406,027.36 8,552.24 12,553.18 2,274.80 49,288.01 63,426.90 1,196.24 4,530.21 0.00 133,269.34 593,112.33 6,920.71 5,075.25 3,998.18 30,567.04 46,944.78 987.53 3,821.77 0.00 91,394.55 328,196.07 4,606.83 465.23 25,117.91 121.66 208,287.21 14,650.44 29,393.44 278,035.89 457.74 21,158.15 75.89 167,297.78 13,171.80 20,881.46 223,042.82 425.38 14,262.74 43.35 142,644.80 9,253.64 16,455.40 183,085.31 354.43 11,180.72 36.92 100,631.38 4,594.92 16,470.97 133,269.34 319.39 6,150.98 28.61 68,264.27 2,815.39 13,815.91 91,394.55

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

HDFC Bank Comparative Profit & Loss Accounts (Rs. in Crores)

Particulars
INCOME : Interest Earned 19,928.21 16,172.72 16,332.26 10,115.00 6,647.93

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Other Income Total I II. Expenditure Interest expended Payments to/Provisions for Employees Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses Depreciation Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies Provision for Tax Fringe Benefit tax Deferred Tax Total II III. Profit & Loss Reported Net Profit Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Prior Year Adjustments Profit brought forward IV. Appropriations Transfer to Statutory Reserve Transfer to Other Reserves Trans. to Government /Proposed Dividend Balance carried forward to Balance Sheet Equity Dividend % Earnings Per Share-Unit Curr Earnings Per Share(Adj)-Unit Curr Book Value-Unit Curr

4,335.15 24,263.36

3,983.11 20,155.83

3,470.64 19,802.90

2,283.15 12,398.15

1,594.59 8,242.52

9,385.08 2,836.04 2,048.46 497.40 3,677.72 2,237.46 0.00 -345.20 20,336.96

7,786.30 2,289.18 1,783.23 394.39 3,613.59 1,365.67 0.00 -25.23 17,207.13

8,911.10 2,238.20 1,580.24 359.91 3,414.20 1,054.31 0.00 0.00 17,557.96

4,887.11 1,301.35 1,135.40 271.71 2,521.93 866.25 16.78 -192.58 10,807.95

3,179.45 776.86 856.26 219.60 1,571.60 581.88 12.00 -96.58 7,101.07

3,926.40 -0.50 3,926.90 0.00 4,532.79

2,948.70 2.74 2,945.96 0.00 3,455.57

2,244.94 2.85 2,242.09 0.00 2,574.63

1,590.20 0.43 1,589.77 0.00 1,932.03

1,141.45 -0.68 1,142.13 0.00 1,455.02

981.60 408.55 894.80 6,174.24 165.00 81.72 81.72 545.46

737.18 492.84 641.46 4,532.79 120.00 62.43 62.43 470.13

561.23 304.51 498.26 3,455.57 100.00 51.08 51.08 344.31

397.55 197.52 352.53 2,574.63 85.00 43.42 43.42 324.39

285.36 117.16 261.92 1,932.03 70.00 34.55 34.55 201.42

AXIS Bank Comparative Balance Sheets (Rs. in Crores)

Particulars
SOURCES OF FUNDS :

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Capital Reserves Total Minority Interest Deposits Borrowings Other Liabilities & Provisions TOTAL LIABILITIES APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Cash & Balances with RBI Balances with Banks & money at Call Investments Advances Fixed Assets Other Assets Miscellaneous Expenditure not written off TOTAL ASSETS Contingent Liability Bills for collection

410.55 18,484.06 0.00 189,166.43 26,267.88 8,270.39 242,599.31 13,886.16 7,522.49 71,787.55 142,407.83 2,292.92 4,702.36 0.00 242,599.31 453,998.76 32,473.11

405.17 15,583.93 0.00 141,278.66 17,169.55 6,181.98 180,619.29 9,482.05 5,723.84 55,876.54 104,340.95 1,235.99 3,959.92 0.00 180,619.29 318,281.38 19,292.87

359.01 9,836.70 0.00 117,357.66 15,519.87 4,660.74 147,733.98 9,419.21 5,600.19 46,271.75 81,556.77 1,082.39 3,803.67 0.00 147,733.98 209,259.83 13,957.31

357.71 8,394.13 0.00 87,619.34 5,624.04 7,618.98 109,614.20

281.63 3,106.82 0.00 58,785.02 5,195.60 5,939.41 73,308.48

7,305.66 4,661.03 5,199.86 2,257.27 33,865.10 26,887.16 59,475.99 36,876.46 932.47 677.84 2,835.12 1,948.72 0.00 0.00 109,614.20 73,308.48 258,895.66 184,165.35 8,323.39 6,274.63

AXIS Bank Comparative Profit & Loss Accounts (Rs. in Crores)

Particulars
INCOME : Interest Earned Other Income Total 15,154.86 4,671.45 19,826.31 11,639.05 3,964.21 15,603.26 10,829.11 2,996.74 13,825.85 7,005.08 1,811.21 8,816.29 4,461.65 1,012.82 5,474.47

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Total II. Expenditure Interest expended Payments to/Provisions for Employees Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses Depreciation Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies Provision for Tax Fringe Benefit Tax Deferred Tax Total Total III. Profit & Loss Net Profit before Minority Interest Minority Interest Net Profit after Minority Interest Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Prior Year Adjustments Profit brought forward IV. Appropriations Transfer to Statutory Reserve Transfer to Other Reserves Trans. to Government /Proposed Dividend Balance carried forward to Balance Sheet Equity Dividend (%) EPS before Minority Interest (Unit Curr.) EPS after Minority Interest (Unit Curr.) Book Value (Unit Curr.)

16,481.63

13,125.12

12,012.92

7,757.15

4,820.22

8,588.61 1,745.80 1,674.58 293.69 2,426.43 1,958.34 -0.34 -205.48 19,826.31 16,481.63

6,632.63 1,359.79 1,276.76 237.87 2,277.16 1,495.27 0.00 -154.36 15,603.26 13,125.12

7,148.92 1,067.76 1,002.47 190.22 1,633.84 1,096.01 11.68 -137.98 13,825.85 12,012.92

4,419.84 752.10 766.12 159.30 1,084.12 725.59 9.33 -159.25 8,816.29 7,757.15

2,993.18 391.18 488.58 112.01 498.11 412.60 6.05 -81.49 5,474.47 4,820.22

3,344.68 0.00 3,339.91 -4.40 3,344.31 0.00 3,371.63

2,478.14 0.00 2,478.14 -2.73 2,480.87 0.00 2,328.95

1,812.93 0.00 1,812.93 -4.97 1,817.90 0.00 1,537.20

1,059.14 0.00 1,059.14 -8.44 1,067.58 0.00 1,024.29

654.25 0.00 654.25 -1.70 655.95 -31.81 731.04

847.12 329.49 670.48 4,864.45 140.00 79.14 79.14 460.23

628.63 239.38 567.45 3,371.63 120.00 59.16 59.16 394.63

453.84 146.82 420.52 2,328.95 100.00 48.78 48.78 284.00

267.75 26.84 251.64 1,537.20 60.00 28.57 28.57 244.66

164.76 15.64 148.79 1,024.29 45.00 22.45 22.45 120.32

COMPARITIVE ANALYSIS OF ICICI, HDFC AND AXIS BANKS

TOTAL INCOME
Total Income 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank
55,276.51 24,263.36

2010
54,756.36 20,155.83

In Rs Crores 2009
61,247.23 19,802.90

2008
57,416.58 12,398.15

2007
38,909.39 8,242.52

AXIS Bank

16,481.63

13,125.12

12,012.92

7,757.15

4,820.22

Interpretations ICICI Bank has shown a marginal increase in the total income, while HDFC and Axis Banks have maintained a good growth in their total income in 2011 compared to 2010. The total income of ICICI Bank has remained stable in the last three years while HDFC and AXIS banks are improving their positions quite rapidly.

Total Income
70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 Income 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

NET PROFIT
Net Profit for the Year 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank
6,072.26 3,926.90 3,344.31

In Rs Crores 2010
4,612.71 2,945.96 2,480.87

2009
3,576.12 2,242.09 1,817.90

2008
3,365.41 1,589.77 1,067.58

2007
2,737.94 1,142.13 655.95

Interpretations

All the banks showed a positive trend in net profits over the last few years. Although the net profits of all the banks have increased sharply in 2011, AXIS Bank stands on the top increasing its net profit by nearly 35%. Therefore AXIS Bank would be the best option for an investor to expect good growth.

Net Profit
7,000.00 6,000.00 Net Profit 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

EARNINGS PER SHARE

EPS 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank
43.0 81.7 80.2

In Rs 2010
34.6 62.4 60.1

2009
32.4 51.1 48.9

2008
36.0 43.4 28.9

2007
32.9 34.6 22.6

Interpretations

EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share, that is, the amount that they can get on every share held. Although, all the three banks have declared an increase in their Earnings Per Share, HDFC Bank stood on top of the three players with AXIS Bank following closely. HDFC and AXIS Banks have good potential and shareholders can expect better returns in the future.

Earnings per Share

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007

EPS (in Rs)

ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

P/E Ratio
P/E Ratio 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank
25.9 28.7 17.5

2010
27.5 31.0 19.5

In Rs 2009
10.3 19.0 8.5

2008
21.4 30.4 27.0

2007
26.0 27.5 21.7

Interpretations The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock (also called its "P/E", or simply "multiple") is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with a lower P/E ratio. HDFC Bank has the highest P/E ratio of 28.7 times while AXIS Bank has the lowest P/E ratio of 17.5 times.

P/E Ratio
35 30 P/E Ratio 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

PRICE/BOOK VALUE
Book Value 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank
2.3 4.3 3.0

2010
2.1 4.1 3.0

In Rs Per Share 2009 2008

0.8 2.8 1.5 1.8 4.1 3.2

2007
3.2 4.7 4.1

Interpretations Book value is the company's common stock equity as it appears on a balance sheet, equal to total assets minus liabilities, preferred stock, and intangible assets such as goodwill. This is how much the company would have left over in assets if it went out of business immediately. HDFC is valued at 4.3 times its Book Value while ICICI Bank is valued at only 2.3 times its Book Value.

Price/Book Value Ratio

5 4 PBV 3 2 1 0 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

RETURN ON NET WORTH

Return on Net Worth 2011 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank
9.7 16.7 19.3

2010
8.0 16.1 19.2

% 2009
7.8 16.9 19.1

2008
11.8 17.7 17.6

2007
13.4 19.5 21.0

Interpretations Return on Net Worth is one of the most important ratios used for measuring the overall efficiency of a firm and determines whether the investments in the firms are attractive or not. According the graph, Return on Net worth of ICICI has registered a marginal growth, while HDFC and AXIS Banks have maintained a stable ROI. As the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher, AXIS Bank would be again attractive for investment as it still has the highest Return on Net worth.

Return on Net Worth

25 20 RONW (%) 15 10 5 0 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 ICICI Bank HDFC Bank AXIS Bank

CHAPTER VI FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS & CONCLUSION

FINDINGS From the data analysis and interpretations of the ratios of three banks viz. ICICI Bank, HDFC and AXIS Banks, the following findings have been given:

The three banks have been performing well in the wake of growing Indian economy. ICICI Bank appears to have reached its saturation point as it is maintaining stable ratios in the last five years. AXIS bank has been showing good growth in all the aspects over the last few years.

ICICI Bank has shown a marginal increase in the total income, while HDFC and Axis Banks have maintained a good growth in their total income in 2011 compared to 2010. The total income of ICICI Bank has remained stable in the last three years while HDFC and AXIS banks are improving their positions quite rapidly.

All the banks showed a positive trend in net profits over the last few years. Although the net profits of all the banks have increased sharply in 2011, AXIS Bank stands on the top increasing its net profit by nearly 35%. Therefore AXIS Bank would be the best option for an investor to expect good growth.

Although, all the three banks have declared an increase in their Earnings Per Share, HDFC Bank stood on top of the three players with AXIS Bank following closely. HDFC and AXIS Banks have good potential and shareholders can expect better returns in the future.

HDFC Bank has the highest P/E ratio of 28.7 times while AXIS Bank has the lowest P/E ratio of 17.5 times.

HDFC is valued at 4.3 times its Book Value while ICICI Bank is valued at only 2.3 times its Book Value.

Return on Net worth of ICICI has registered a marginal growth, while HDFC and AXIS Banks have maintained a stable ROI. As the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher, AXIS Bank would be again attractive for investment as it still has the highest Return on Net worth.

By analyzing the current trend of Indian Economy and Banking Sector it is found that being a developing economy there is lot of scope for growth and this sector still has to cross many levels so there are huge opportunities to invest in. Increase in income level, increase in consumer demand, technology development, globalization, foreign investments are few of the opportunities which the sector has to explore for developing the economy.

SUGGESTIONS By analyzing the banking sector with the help of fundamental analysis, it has been revealed that this sector has a lot of potential to grow. So recommending investing in banking sector with no doubt is going to be a good and smart option because this industry is booming like never before. The three giants of Indian Banking Sector viz. ICICI, HDFC and AXIS Banks have outperformed in the industry.

ICICI Bank, the largest private sector bank in India seems to have reached its saturation point after a very good growth over the years.

HDFC Bank has been performing consistently and stands in between ICICI and AXIS Banks in terms of increase in its growth.

AXIS Bank seems to be the best bet for the investors from Fundamental Analysis as it has registered very good growth in the recent years. All its ratios have out performed over ICICI and HDFC Banks.

Few Suggestions for Right Stock Selection There are three factors which an investor must consider for selecting the right stocks.

Business: An investor must look into what kind of business the company is doing, visibility of the business, its past track record, capital needs of the company for expansion etc.

Balance Sheet: The investor must focus on its key financial ratios such as earnings per share, price-earning ratio; debt-equity ratio, dividends per share etc and he must also check whether the company is generating cash flows.

Bargaining: This is the most important factor which shows the true worth of the company. An investor needs to choose valuation parameters which suit its business.

Investment rules

Invest for long term in equity markets Align your thought process with the business cycle of the company. Set the purpose for investment. Long term goals should be the objective of equity investment. Disciplined investment during market volatility helps attains profits. Planning, Knowledge and Discipline are very crucial for investment.

CONCLUSION Indian banks have fared well on growth, asset quality and profitability with other regional banks over the last few years. The banking index has grown at a compounded annual rate of over 51 per cent since April 2001 as compared to a 27 per cent growth in the market index for the same period. Policy makers have made some notable changes in policy and regulation to help strengthen the sector. These changes include strengthening prudential norms, enhancing the payments system and integrating regulations between commercial and co-operative banks. However, the cost of intermediation remains high and bank penetration is limited to only a few customer segments and geographies. While bank lending has been a significant driver of GDP growth and employment, periodic instances of the failure of some weak banks have often threatened the stability of the system. Structural weaknesses such as a fragmented industry structure, restrictions on capital availability and deployment, lack of institutional support infrastructure, restrictive labour laws, weak corporate governance and ineffective regulations beyond Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), unless addressed, could seriously weaken the health of the sector. Further, the inability of bank managements (with some notable exceptions) to improve capital allocation, increase the productivity of their service platforms and improve the performance ethic in their organisations could seriously affect future performance. The bar for what it means to be a successful player in the sector has been raised. Four challenges must be addressed before success can be achieved. First, the market is seeing discontinuous growth driven by new products and services that include opportunities in credit cards, consumer finance and wealth management on the retail side, and in fee-based income and investment banking on the wholesale banking side.

These require new skills in sales & marketing, credit and operations. Second, banks will no longer enjoy windfall treasury gains that the decade-long secular decline in interest rates provided. This will expose the weaker banks. Third, with increased interest in India, competition from foreign banks will only intensify. Fourth, given the demographic shifts resulting from changes in age profile and household income, consumers will increasingly demand enhanced institutional capabilities and service levels from banks. The analysis gives an optimistic view about the industry and its growth which recommends the investors to keep a good watch on the major players to benefit in terms of returns on their investments.

BIBLIOGRAPHY Text Books

Security Analysis and Portfolio Management by Punithavathy Pandian, Vikas Publications.

Security analysis and portfolio management by V.A. Avadhani

Financial Markets and Services by Gordon and Natarajan, Himalaya Publications. Financial Management by Shashi K Gupta and R. K Sharma, Kalyani Publications.

Newspapers

Economic times Business line Websites

www.nseindia.com www.bseindia.com www.investopedia.com www.moneycontrol.com www.angelbroking.com www.sebi.gov.in