Kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2006

2006--2011
v Trin vng 2012
2012--2015
TS. L Xun Ngha
Ph ch tch y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia

H Ni, thng 1 nm 2012

1

Tc tng trng GDP giai on 2000

2000--2011
(n v
v:: %)

9.00%
8.46%

8.44%

8.50%

8.23%

8.00%
7.79%
7.50%

7.34%

7.00%
6.50%

6.79% 6.89%

7.08%

6.78%
6.31%

6.00%
5.89%

5.50%

5.32%

5.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ngun: TCTK.
2

T l vn u t ton x hi/GDP giai on 20062006-2011

(n v
v:: %)

48
46.5

46
44
42

42.7
41.9

41.5

41.5

40
38
36
34.6

34
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ngun: TCTK.
3

T trng u t ca cc khu vc kinh t trong tng u t ton

x hi giai on 20062006-2011
(n v
v:: %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

16.2

24.3

30.9

25.6

25.8

25.9

33.9

36.1

35.2

38.1
38.5

45.7

2006
Khu vc nh nc

35.2

37.2

33.9

40.5

38.1

38.9

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Khu vc ngoi nh nc

Khu vc c vn u t trc tip nc ngoi

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca TCTK.

4

Tit kim - u t v nhp siu ca nn kinh t giai on 2005

2005--2010
(n v
v:: %)

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Nin gim thng k 2010 (trang 140).
5

Tc tng Tng sn lng (GO) v Gi tr gia tng (VA) ca

nn kinh t giai on 2001
2001--2010
(n v
v:: %)

ng gp ca cc nhn t vn
vn,, lao ng v TFP
vo tng trng kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2000
2000--2005 v 2006
2006--2010
(n v
v:: %)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Giai on 2000-2005
Vn (K)

lao ng (L)

Giai on 2006-2010
Nng sut nhn t tng hp (TFP)

Ngun: Bi Trinh.
7

Kim ngch xut

xut,, nhp khu v nhp siu
giai on 2006
2006--2011
(n v
v:: Triu USD)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-20000
2006

2007
Xut khu

2008
Nhp khu

2009
2010
Nhp siu

2011

T l nhp siu so vi GDP giai on 2006 - 2010

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

8,3%

20%

20,1%

14%

12,4%

8%

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca TCTK.

8

Tc tng ch s gi tiu dng CPI ca Vit Nam

giai on 2001 - 2011
(n v
v:: %)
25
20

19.87

18.13

15
12.75
9.67

10

8.71
6.57

4.04

11.75
6.52

3.01

0.79
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ngun: TCTK.
9

Quy m Thu - Chi NSNN giai on 2001

2001--2005 v 2006
2006--2010
(n v
v:: %)

40

36.3
32.6

35

27.2

30
25

24.6

20
15
10
5
0
2001-2005

2006-2010

Quy m thu

Quy m chi

Ngun: B Ti chnh.
10

N cng, n nc ngoi, n cng nc ngoi

ngoi 2006 2010
(n v
v:: %GDP)

60

50

40

30

20
2007
N cng

2008
N nc ngoi

2009

2010

N cng nc ngoi

Ngun: B Ti chnh.
11

Ch s VnIndex v khi lng giao dch

giai on giai on 2006 n 2011
(n v
v:: im
im;; triu c phiu
phiu//phin
phin))
1400

16000000

1200

14000000
12000000

1000

10000000

800

80000000
600

60000000

400

40000000

200

20000000

0
1/4/2006

0
1/4/2007

1/4/2008

1/4/2009

1/4/2010

Khi lng giao dch

1/4/2011

1/4/2012

VNIndex

Ngun: HSX.
12

Tc tng cung tin v tn dng giai on 2006

2006--2011
(n v
v:: %)

Nm

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

c 2011

Tc tng M2

32,0

41,2

20,3

27,5

29,8

~10

Tc tng tn dng

24,8

48,9

23,4

37,5

31,2

12-13%

M2/GDP danh ngha (ln)

0,97

1,16

1,08

1,23

1,34

1,15

Tn dng/GDP danh ngha (ln)

0,71

0,90

0,86

1,06

1,16

1,02

T l cho vay
vay//huy ng (LDR) giai on 2008
2008--2011
Nm

2008

2009

2010

c 2011

LDR

0,95

1,01

1,01

1,02-1,03

Ngun: UBGSTCQG.
13

T gi danh ngha song phng v t gi thc song phng USD/VND giai

on 2006 n nay (nm 2000 = 100)
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
T gi danh ngha song phng

T gi thc song phng

Ngun: UBGSTCQG.
14

D bo trin vng kinh t th gii

giai on 2012
2012--2013
Trin vng kinh t 2012
Ch tiu

2011
Kch bn tt

Kch bn
trung bnh

Trin vng
kinh t 2013

Kinh t th gii
Tc tng trng GDP

4%

3,2-4%

2,4-3,2%

3,6%

Cc nc pht trin

1,6%

2,0-2,5%

1-2%

2,6%

Cc nc ang pht trin

6,4%

5 -6%

4-5%

6,3%

7,5%

5,7%-7,5%

3,5-5,7%

7,7%

Cc nc pht trin

4-5%

3-4%

Cc nc ang pht trin

7-8%

6-7%

Tc tng trng thng mi ton

cu (lng)

Ngun: D bo ca cc t chc quc t v UBGSTCQG.

15

D bo mt s ch tiu kinh t v m Vit Nam giai on 2012

2012--2013

Trin vng kinh t 2012

Ch tiu

2011
Kch bn tt

Kch bn
trung bnh

Trin vng
kinh t 2013

Kinh t Vit Nam

Tc tng trng GDP (%)

5,89

6-6,3

5,5-5,9

6,4-6,7

Tc tng lm pht (%)

18,13

8-10

8-10

6-7

Kim ngch xut khu (t USD, %)

96,26
(33,3%)

107,8-108,8
(12-13%)

105,9-107,8
(10-12%)

121,8-123,9
(15-17%)

Kim ngch nhp khu (t USD, %)

105,77
(25%)

112,2-113,2
(6-7%)

113,2-114,3
(7-8%)

129,2-131,5
(12-14%)

9,9%

4-5%

5-7%

6-8%

T l nhp siu/xut khu

Ngun: GSO, d bo ca UBGSTCQG.

16

D bo mt s ch tiu ti chnh tin t n nm 2015

Tc tng trng cung tin (M2): 15-17%/nm.
Tc tng trng tn dng ni a: 17-20%/nm.
Bi chi ngn sch nh nc: 4,5-4,9% GDP.
Thm ht thng mi: 5-8% GDP.
Cn cn thanh ton quc t: thng d 3-4 t USD/nm.
D tr ngoi hi: tng ng 6-8 tun nhp khu.
17

Hai kch bn tng trng nm 2012

Kch bn tt: Tng trng kinh t nm 2012 c th t mc 6-6,3%. y l kch bn xy ra vi cc iu

kin sau:
o

Kinh t th gii tng trng mc kh cao: 3,2-4%.

T trng u t ca khu vc t nhn trong tng u t ton x hi cn tng t 35,2% nm 2011 ln

mc 43% nm 2012; trong khi t trng u t ca khu vc nh nc gim t 38,9% nm 2011 xung
cn 34% nm 2012.

Tng trng tn dng cn trn 25%.

Kch bn trung bnh: Tng trng kinh t nm 2012 c th t mc 5,6-5,9%. yl kch bn xy ra trong
iu kin nh sau:
o

Kinh t th gii tng trng mc thp:2,4-3,2%.

T trng u t ca khu vc t nhn chim 40,5-41% tng u t ton x hi; trong khi t trng ca
khu vc nh nc l 36,5-37%.

Tng trng tn dng mc t 15-17%.

18

Kin ngh chnh sch

Tip tc tp trung kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m trn c s thc hin
CSTT cht ch, thn trng, linh hot; CSTK cht ch, hiu qu; tng cng kim
sot th trng, gi c, t chc tt th trng trong nc v khuyn khch xut
khu, kim sot nhp khu, hn ch nhp siu.
Ti c cu nn kinh t vi 3 trng tm: ti c cu u t cng; ti c cu doanh
nghip nh nc; ti c cu h thng ngn hng.
Pht trin v nng cao cht lng nhn lc.
Thc y ci cch hnh chnh, pht trin b my nh nc theo m hnh cung cp
dch v cng.
Cc bin php v x hi, mi trng
19

C th gim c li sut hay khng?

Lm pht nm 2012 c th gim xung thp.

Tuy nhin, cha c c s gim li sut, mc d lm pht c th gim mnh

v nhng l do sau:
Cc ngn hng thiu thanh khon nn khng c tin cho vay.
Lng tin ngi dn cha phc hi.
N xu cn rt ln v khng th gii quyt trong mt vi thng, theo
ngun vn quay tr li ngn hng rt t chi ph cho vay tng ln.

20

Chnh sch tin t

Mt nhim v trng tm nht v cn thc hin ngay trong qu I/2012 l n nh thanh khon ca h thng
ngn hng thng qua cc cng c sau:
o

Ti cp vn trc tip t NHNN.

Tng DTBB tin gi, to ngun cho NHNN iu ha vn t ngn hng tha sang ngn hng thiu
vn.

M rng c ch cho php cc ngn hng kinh doanh vng ti khon s dng ngun vn t vng b
sung cho thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng.

Khi c iu kin thch hp (tm l lm pht gim mnh, lm pht tip tc c kim sot tt) th c
th b trn li sut huy ng v gim li sut tn dng (bin php ny d kin c th thc hin t u
qu II/2012).

Thc hin CSTT cht ch, thn trng, linh hot.

C nh hng tp trung vo nhng ngnh cn u tin.

Linh hot cng c thanh khon ca th trng ti sn (BS v chng khon).

21

Chnh sch ti kha

Thc hin CSTK cht ch, hiu qu.

R sot v chn chnh li quy hoch u t cng.
Tng cng kim sot trch nhim v hiu qu u t cng.
Chng lng ph v tham nhng

22

Pht trin th trng vn

Ti cu trc th trng vn theo hng tng cng minh bch v trch nhim
gii trnh.
To thm ngun hng mi c cht lng v quy m tr ct.
Pht trin h thng thanh ton.
Pht trin mnh th trng tri phiu.
Tng cng cng tc gim st.
23

24