Some Impacts of Forecast Toll Increases: The Dulles Toll Road

Terry Maynard

Reston Citizens Association

Reston 2020 Committee May 4, 2012

5/4/2012

CDM Smith forecasts one-way Dulles Toll Road tolls will need to increase nine-fold, more than three-fold in real terms, over the next four decades.
Forecast Tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, 2012-2050, Nominal and Real Prices
Forecast Toll
$18.00 $16.00 $14.75 $12.75 $10.75 $8.75 $6.75 $5.82 $4.50 $4.39 $6.67 $7.24 $7.59 $7.76 $7.79 $7.71

$20.00

Real Toll ($2012 @ 2.5%/yr)

$16.75

$18.75

$14.00
$12.00 $10.00

$8.00
$6.00 $4.00

$2.25 $2.00
$0.00

2028

2012

2013

2018

2023

2033

2038

2043

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, January 2012

2048
5/4/2012

For regular toll road users, annual toll costs will increase from less than $1,000 to more than $8,000 annually in nominal and to $3,000 annually in 2012 dollars over the forecast period.
Annual Toll Cost for Regular Dulles Toll Road User
$9,000

Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks)

$8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 $770 $2,970

$8,250 $7,370

Inflation Adjusted Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks, 2.5%/Yr)
$6,490 $5,610 $4,730 $3,850 $2,793
$3,033 $3,179 $3,251

$3,263

$3,228

$1,980 $942

2050

Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, February 2012

5/4/2012

The added cost of toll road use will consume nearly half of the gains in real disposable Fairfax County median household income over the forecast period for regular toll road users.
Forecast Share of Spending of Cumulative Real Disposable Household Income Gains, Fairfax County, 2012-2048, for Regular Dulles Toll Road Users
3.1% 1.7%

A regular toll road user pays the full toll twice per day, five days per week, 44 weeks per year. US Census ACS estimates Fairfax median household income in 2010 was $103,000. Taxes consume 26.6% of HH income per published sources.

3.5% 3.7%

8.0%

Food & Beverage Housing Apparel

21.3%

Transportation Toll Increases Medical Care

Recreation
Educ. & Comm.
48.0%

BLS spending categories and 2/2012 CPI spending shares. Income and inflation are projected to grow at rates of the last 20 years.
Inflation (CPI-US) = 2.6%/year FC income growth = 2.8%/year.
5/4/2012 4

8.8%

Other
1.9%

While the current cost per mile of Dulles tolls is near the national average for toll roads of its type, tolls will octuple in nominal terms and increase 250% in real terms over the forecast period.
Dulles Toll Road Cost per Mile, One-Way Full Length, Nominal & Inflation-Adjusted
$1.50 $1.35 $1.20 $1.05 $1.02 $0.88 $0.74 $0.61 $0.60 $0.47 $0.45 $0.31 $0.26 $0.30 $0.34 $0.38

Full Length Cost/Mile (Greenway-I495) Inflation-Adjusted 2012 Full Toll Cost/Mile (2.5%/Yr)
$1.16

$1.30

$0.90
$0.75

$0.30
$0.18 $0.15

$0.20

$0.23

$0.16
$0.00

2017

2022

2012

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

5/4/2012

Forecasts indicated that those unwilling to pay the increasingly exorbitant tolls will divert to local roads, adding some 30,000 vehicles per day to already congested streets and highways.
Changing Toll Road, Rail, & Local Street Use (in 1000s)
--Toll road usage slides with high tolls and Metrorail arrival. --Metrorail use generates few new transit passengers. --Toll road users divert to local streets, adding to congestion. --None of this counts added local traffic created by new residents or jobs.
Sources: --CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, 02/2012 --Federal Transit Administration, Phase 1 Project Monitoring Reports,
Thousands of Users

200
180

194

162
160 154

140
120 100 80 60 40 20

86 70

30
10 -

30

162 70 2 30

2012 194 -

2014

2030 154 86 10 30

Dulles Toll Road Avg. Daily Traffic

Silver Line Average Weekday Traffic

NEW Transit Riders on Silver Line (AWT)

Added Daily Local Street Traffic

5/4/2012