FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS IN THE SMALL URBAN CENTERS OF MONGOLIA

Findings from the Aimag Center Food Security Assessment Summary Report - March 2008

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS IN THE SMALL URBAN CENTERS OF MONGOLIA

Findings from the Aimag Center Food Security Assessment

Summary Report

Chris Hillbruner Food Security Consultant

Meaghan Murphy Mickey Leland International Hunger Fellow

MERCY CORPS MONGOLIA

24 Peace Avenue, Bayanzurkh District Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Phone: 976-1146-0967 March 2008

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

Introduction
This report presents summary findings from the Aimag Center Food Security Assessment, focusing specifically on the prevalence, characteristics and determinants of food insecurity. The results of this assessment provide, for the first time, clear empirical evidence of food insecurity among aimag center residents in Mongolia. While not statistically representative of Mongolia as a whole, it is likely that the findings from Baruun-Urt, Arvaiheer, Ulaangom and Khovd reflect the situation in the country's other aimag centers. The most pressing issues relate to the access dimension of food security. One third of households in the survey population were found to be food insecure (one quarter moderately or severely). In addition, information collected on seasonal patterns of food security suggests that the situation worsens considerably during the spring months when both food and employment are scarce. These findings have important implications for programming in Mongolia and demonstrate that efforts to mitigate food insecurity in aimag centers require a combination of both existing approaches and the development of new initiatives to address urban unemployment, workforce capacity, a lack of savings, the use of loans for consumption smoothing, inefficient food marketing systems and childhood malnutrition. Complete findings, results tables and assessment tools can be found in a longer, more in-depth final report available from Mercy Corps on request or from their website (www.mercycorps.org.mn). Study Background Food security is defined as when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life1. This multifaceted definition is difficult to quantify and therefore food security is typically broken down into four more easily measurable sub-components: availability, access, utilization and sustainability. Often, both food insecurity and food security programming are concentrated in rural areas where a large portion of the population is engaged in crop-based, subsistence agriculture. In Mongolia however, rural households are largely food secure. Livestock based agriculture provides rural households with large quantities of meat and dairy products and informal safety nets are strong (FAO/UNICEF/UNDP 2007). Instead, food insecurity is considered most serious in urban areas where a large (60%) and growing proportion of the Mongolian population lives (NSO 2004). A recent assessment by the FAO, UNICEF and UNDP estimated that approximately 30% of urban residents (Ulaanbaatar and aimag centers) were food insecure. Seasonal fluctuations in food availability, the high costs of urban living and unemployment were identified as key determinants of urban food insecurity (2007). However, these estimates are based mainly on interpreting income and poverty data, information that is related to, but not synonymous with, food security. Specific information on food security at the household level, including information on characteristics and determinants of food insecurity, is largely unavailable. This is particularly true for urban communities outside of Ulaanbaatar. Finally, new measures of food security, like the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, have not been modified for use in Mongolia.

Rome Declaration on World Food Security (1996) World Food Summit. Rome, Italy

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

Purpose and Scope of the Study The overall purpose of the assessment was to answer the research question: Does food insecurity exist within aimag centers in Mongolia? More specifically, the study aimed to explore the following: What are the constraints to food availability at the aimag center market level? At what level and degree of severity does food insecurity exist within aimag center households? What are the characteristics of food insecure households that could allow for future identification and program targeting? What factors mitigate or exacerbate household level food insecurity? Mercy Corps Mongolia Mercy Corps has been operating in Mongolia since 1999. Currently, Mercy Corps Mongolia implements five programs focused primarily on promoting rural economic development and strengthening civil society. These programs include the Gobi Initiative, The Rural Agribusiness Support Program, Gobi Forage, the Training, Advocacy and Networking Project and the Baruun Bus Regional Economic Development Program. Mercy Corps' involvement in urban food security research aimed to take advantage of two opportunities. First, more detailed information on aimag center food markets and urban household's expenditure and consumption patterns could be used to inform existing agribusiness development initiatives, allowing them to more accurately respond to consumer and business demand. Second, an exploration of urban food security and its determinants was expected to reveal entry points for future programming and partnerships, particularly given the important linkages between food security, chronic malnutrition (of the type found in Mongolia) and economic development.

Methodology
Data was collected in four purposively chosen aimag centers: Baruun-Urt, Arvaiheer, Uvs and Khovd. Two survey tools were used in the assessment: a qualitative market survey to collect data on food availability at the local market level and a quantitative household survey to capture information on household access, utilization and sustainability. For the market survey 73 interviews were conducted with local food businesses. While this sample was non-random, efforts were made to ensure that a range of business types, sizes and locations were interviewed. For the household survey, a stratified simple random sample was used so that comparisons could be made between the chosen aimag centers. While this data may suggest broader conclusions about food security in Mongolian aimag centers, because the aimag centers were purposively chosen, the data is only statistically representative of the populations in the survey sites. In total, 872 households were visited across the four sites and 663 were successfully surveyed for a response rate of 76%.

Findings
Food Availability A total of 73 businesses were interviewed across the four surveyed aimag centers. These businesses were involved in range of different food sectors (Table 1) and played a variety of roles within these sectors (Table 2). Businesses were most commonly involved in the meat sector, followed closely by flour and dairy. Most food related businesses concentrated on sales, although trading and processing were also somewhat common. Very little food production occurred in the aimag centers.

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary) Table 1: Market Survey Sampling - by food sector Meat 37 Businesses involved in specific food sectors Vegetables/Fruit Dairy Flour, Rice, Bread 28 32 33 Other processed foods 22

Table 2: Market Survey Sampling - by role Food sector Meat Vegetables/Fruit Dairy Flour, rice, bread Other processed foods Producer 0 8 3 0 11 Role in supply chain Processor Seller 11 31 3 27 7 29 9 27 31 22 Trading 9 6 6 10 6

Market structure, availability and prices by sector Five main "food sectors" were explored through the market survey: meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables, flour and cereals and other processed foods. This section describes the market structure and current prices for each of these areas. Meat The major meat products available in the aimag centers were beef, mutton, goat and locally processed sausage products. Camel and horsemeat were also available, although to a lesser extent. Very little fish (fresh, dried or canned) was sold. The major source for meat in the aimag center was rural soums. Very little meat is imported from Ulaanbaatar. Fresh meat is sold almost entirely through the local meat market rather than through small food stores. Two types of processing occur within the aimag center, basic slaughtering at local slaughterhouses and small scale sausage making and canning. Officially, all meat sold in the aimag center should be certified by a veterinarian, a service only available at the slaughterhouse. However, in reality, only meat destined for the capital is held to this standard. Sausage making and canning operations are usually small but tended to have established broad distribution networks. Fresh meat prices ranged from 800 to 2,150 MNT (0.68-1.82 USD) per kilogram. The cost of processed meat products ranged from 900 to 5,500 MNT (0.76 - 4.62 USD) per kilogram. Availability is highly seasonal in the aimag centers with the supply of meat highest during the fall, when animals fattened over the summer are slaughtered and households purchase winter food supplies. Therefore, the prices collected for this assessment would typically represent the year's lowest although this is less true this year due to rising global food prices and inflation. Meat is much less available and meat prices are higher in the spring and early summer when animals are thin and giving birth. Summer also presents problems related to spoilage given that adequate storage facilities and refrigeration are largely unavailable. Vegetables and fruit Vegetables most commonly available in the aimag centers included potatoes, onions, cabbage and carrots. The source of vegetables in the aimag center was roughly split between local production within the aimag and imports from China, either directly or via Ulaanbaatar. Fruit, most often apples and citrus, was more limited and was almost exclusively imported. Beyond some pickling, fruit and vegetable processing was almost non-existent. Fruit and vegetable availability is characterized by severe declines in both the quantity and quality of available produce and significant price increases during the winter and early spring. Average, per kilogram vegetable prices ranged from 428 MNT (0.36 USD) for potatoes to 3,000 MNT (2.54 USD) for cauliflower. Fruit prices ranged from 1,180 MNT (1.00 USD) per kilogram 3

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

for apples to 2,500 MNT (2.12 USD) per kilogram for plums and grapes. Prices were generally higher in the western region, possibly due to high transportation costs. Dairy Fresh dairy products available in the aimag centers included milk, butter and, to a lesser extent, eggs. Yogurt, aruul (dried curds) and a variety of other traditional Mongolian processed dairy products were also available. During the summer and early fall local producers, from both the aimag center and rural soums, produce large quantities of fresh milk, butter and other products. During the winter and spring however, locally produced dairy is unavailable, due in part to a lack of storage facilities. Instead, boxed and powdered milk are imported from China, typically via Ulaanbaatar. This lack of storage also leads to problems with spoilage during the summer. Eggs were in limited supply in all surveyed aimag centers, despite growing demand from restaurants and bakeries. Beyond the manufacture of traditional dairy products (e.g. aruul), dairy processing in the aimag centers is limited. Prices for diary products ranged from 600 to 5,500 MNT (0.51 - 4.62 USD) per kilogram. Relative to other parts of the year, these prices are probably about average. The lowest prices occur during the late summer and early fall and the highest prices are found during the spring. Eggs averaged 240 MNT (0.20 USD) per piece. These prices may be higher than during other parts of the year because during early winter (November/December) local businesses reported that chickens stop laying while they are molting. In general, dairy was less available and more expensive in the western region aimag centers when compared to Baruun-Urt and Arvaiheer. Flour, bread and rice Flour was widely available in all aimag centers surveyed and this supply does not appear to fluctuate seasonally. However, no grain production or milling was reported in any of the aimag centers. Instead, primary sources of flour were Ulaanbaatar or direct imports from Russia and China. All rice is imported from outside of Mongolia. Flour is sold primarily through the aimag center open market or to processors. Processors using flour, including bakeries and noodle manufacturers, represented one of the most developed food processing sectors in the aimag centers, particularly with regard to distribution networks, some of which extended as far as other aimag centers. Flour prices ranged from 540 to 1,050 MNT (0.46 - 0.89 USD) per kilogram and have risen significantly in the past year due to a global wheat shortage and increasing fuel prices. As a result flour is sold mostly in bulk through the local aimag center open market because shop owners report that it is uneconomical to sell in small quantities. Other processed foods Other processed foods include salt, sugar, oil and canned goods not processed in the aimag center. These goods came primarily from Ulaanbaatar and to a lesser extent from Russia and China. These products were widely available in all aimag centers and availability does not appear to vary seasonally. The mean price of sugar across all four aimag was 950 MNT (0.81 USD) per kilogram. The mean price for vegetable oil (only collected in Ulaangom and Khovd) was 2,777 MNT (2.35 USD) per liter. Constraints to Availability Interviews with local food businesses identified a number of key constraints. Most importantly, the dairy, meat and fruit/vegetable sector are heavily affected by season, with availability highest from late summer to early winter and lowest during the spring. Concurrent declines in quality and quantity accompany increased prices during this latter period. Underlying causes of these

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

fluctuations in supply include highly seasonal production patterns, limited food storage facilities in the aimag centers and poor road infrastructure that becomes difficult to travel during the winter. A number of other issues related to transportation and infrastructure were also raised. First, most businesses rely on public or shared transportation to reach Ulaanbaatar or other major trading centers and to ship goods back to the aimag center. However, these transport systems are inefficient and not well organized. As a result, both the cost and provision of these services are unpredictable, making it difficult for business owners to plan efficiently. Second, in addition to the poor quality of local roads, outdated power grids and declining airline service (particularly in the western region) also constrain food businesses. Finally, business owners identified a broad lack of access to inputs (productive, financial and human) as an impediment to better functioning operations and to business expansion. Food Access Three groups of indicators related to the access dimension of household food security were calculated from data collected for the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale: the prevalence of individual behaviors and experiences related to food insecurity, household food security categories and household food security scores.
Table 3: Prevalence of food insecurity experiences/behaviors in the last 30 days (any HH member) Weighted Total (%) 26.1 27.5 19.8 10.4 14.3 10.9 4.8 5.5 2.9

Worry that your household would not have enough food Not able to eat the kinds of foods you preferred because of a lack of resources Ate only a few types of foods due to a lack of resources Ate foods that you really did not want to eat because of a lack of resources to obtain other types of food Ate a smaller portion than you felt you needed because there was not enough food Skipped breakfast, lunch or dinner because there was not enough food Had no food to eat of any kind in the household because of a lack of resources to get food Went to sleep hungry at night because there was not enough food Went a whole day and night without eating anything because there was not enough food (n=660)

Table 3 presents results for this first group. The most commonly reported food insecurity behaviors/experiences were related to anxiety about household food provision and poor dietary quality and were identified by 20-30% of households. A second group of behaviors, including reduced portion size and skipping meals, were reported by 10-15% of households. Finally, 3-6% of households reported experiencing the most serious consequences of food insecurity: hunger and a complete lack of food at the household level. Ulaangom households reported the highest levels for seven of the nine behaviors, although these differences were not always statistically significant. Most seriously, households in this aimag center were almost four times more likely to have no food to eat of any kind in the house due to a lack of resources.2 The second indicator calculated with data from the HFIAS module was food security categories. Based on responses to the frequency of occurrence questions in the HFIAS, households were categorized as food secure, mildly food insecure, moderately food insecure or severely food insecure. Overall, our analysis found that one third of the aimag centers' population was food insecure, one quarter moderately or severely (Table 4). When aimag centers are compared, households in Baruun-Urt were most likely to be food insecure (mild, moderate or severe) although

In a weight adjusted simple logistic regression model of no food in the household the odds ratio for an Ulaangom dummy variable = 3.835 (p<0.001).

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

this was only significant at the 10% level.3 Among households that were food insecure however, Baruun-Urt households were significantly more likely to be mildly or moderately food insecure4 while households in Ulaangom were significantly more likely to be severely food insecure when compared with the other aimag centers.5
Table 4: Household Food Security (Access) Category (% of households) Food Secure Mildly food insecure Moderately food insecure Severely food insecure (n=659) Weighted Total (%) 67.2 10.7 13.1 9.1

The third access indicator calculated using HFIAS data was the Household Food Security Score. This indicator averaged 2.41 for the entire survey population and was highest in Ulaangom, although this difference was not significant. As expected, mean food security scores rose as food insecurity, as measured by the food security category, worsened. Because the HFIAS is a new indicator, there are limited examples in the published literature to compare with our results. However, two FAO studies do provide some insight. In the first study, households in a high HIV/AIDS prevalence area of Central Mozambique reported mean food security scores ranged from 10.6 to 14.4. The second FAO study in rural Burkina Faso reported mean food security ranging from 4.89 to 7.09. Access - Seasonality In addition to the HFIAS and dietary diversity score a third indicator was used to collect information on the access dimension of food security. This indicator, Months of Adequate Household Food Provisioning (MAHFP), illustrates how the most severe manifestation of food insecurity, lack of food at the household level, fluctuates seasonally. In the four surveyed aimag centers, 23.6 % of all households had experienced inadequate food supplies in the last year. On average, these households were without adequate food for slightly more than three months. While there was no difference between aimag centers in the proportion of households facing food shortages, these shortages were significantly longer in the western region aimag centers.6
Table 6: Months of Adequate Household Food Provisioning Households with inadequate food supplies during at least 1 of the past 12 months (%) (n=659) Number of months without adequate food (among households with inadequate food supplies during at least 1 of the past 12 months) (mean) (n=155) (n=659) Weighted Total 23.6 3.11

The accepted hypothesis regarding the seasonality of food security has suggested that Mongolian households face one major period of food insecurity (March-May) each year. However, this assessment found seasonal effects on food security to be more complex with respondents identifying two periods of increased food insecurity: the already recognized March-May and a less severe period beginning in August and peaking in October-November (Chart 1).

In a weight adjusted simple logistic regression model of any food insecurity the odds ratio for a Baruun-Urt dummy variable = 1.409 (p=0.071). 4 In a similar model of mild or moderate food insecurity the odds ratio for a Baruun-Urt dummy variable = 2.808 (p=0.020). 5 In a similar model of severe food insecurity the odds ratio for an Ulaangom dummy variable = 2.240 (p=0.005). 6 In a weight adjusted simple linear regression model of number of months with inadequate food supplies the parameter estimate for a Western region dummy variable = 0.26 (p=0.047)

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary) Chart 1: Seasonal fluctuation in the proportion of households reporting inadequate food supplies (n=659)
16.0% 14.0% % of HH reporting Inadequate food supplies 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr
Baarun-Urt

May

Jun

Jul
Arvaiheer

Aug

Sep
Ulaangom

Oct

Nov

Dec
Khovd

Weighted Total

Access - Dietary Diversity Information on dietary diversity was collected with the Household Dietary Diversity Score Module. For this indicator a higher score indicates higher dietary diversity and suggests better food security. On average, households in the survey population had eaten from about seven of the 12 food groups during the past 24 hours. The most commonly reported food groups were cereals, meat, miscellaneous. (including tea and condiments) and oils/fats. The least commonly reported food groups were eggs, beans/pulses and fish. Eleven percent of the survey population had eaten from less than five food groups, indicating poor dietary diversity. This level of dietary diversity is similar to that found in Mali (6.1-6.7) and much lower than in other Asian countries, like Vietnam and Bangladesh, where dietary diversity scores, using the same 12 food groups, averaged between eight and nine (Hoddinott and Yohannes 2002).
Table 5: Household Dietary Diversity Score Household Dietary Diversity Score (mean) Household ate from less than 5 food groups in the past 24 hours (%) (n=661) Weighted Total 6.85 10.8

Food Utilization The nutritional status of children under five years of age was used as a proxy for the food utilization dimension of food security. Due to problems with the quality of anthropometric data collected by household medical points in Baruun-Urt and Arvaiheer, only results from Ulaangom and Khovd (where the survey team collected its own anthropometric data) are presented. Children in the two western aimag centers had an average weight for height z-score of 0.98 (within the normal range), a mean height-for age z-score of -1.05 (mildly stunted) and a mean weight for age z-score of 0.13 (within the normal range). There were no significant differences in these nutritional indices between aimag centers. Female children surveyed tended to be taller and lighter although for height-for age z-score and weight for age z-score these differences were not significant and for WHZ the difference was only significant at the 10% level. 7
In a weight adjusted simple linear regression model of WHZ the parameter estimate for a female child dummy variable was -0.340 (p=0.089)
7

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary) Charts 2a-b: Distribution of weight for height and height for age z-scores

(a)

(b)

Charts 2a - 2b compare the distribution of these indices in Ulaangom and Khovd with the distribution in a healthy population. This comparison shows that children in these western region aimag centers are shorter (Chart 2a) and heavier (Chart 2b) than they should be. Overall, 13.1% of children were overweight (WHZ > +2SD) and 19.4% were stunted, 10.7 moderately (HAZ < -2SD and >-3SD) and 8.7% severely (HAZ < -3SD).
Table 7: Prevalence of under- and over-nutrition (Ulaangom and Khovd) Weighted Total WHZ Category (n=83) Severely or Moderately Wasted Within the Normal Range Overweight HAZ Category (n=83) Severely Stunted Moderately Stunted Within the Normal Range WAZ Category (n=84) Severely Underweight Moderately Underweight Within the Normal Range Overweight 86.7 13.1 8.7 10.7 80.5 2.6 2.6 91.0 3.9

Characteristics of food insecure households Using weight adjusted simple logistic regression modeling, the relationships between four food security dummy variables (0,1) and a range of other indicators were explored. The four outcome variables of interest were: household is food insecure (mild, moderate and severe food insecurity), household is food insecure (moderate and severe food insecurity), household dietary diversity score was less than five and household reported insufficient food supplies in the past 12 months. Two groups of indicators were compared with the food security dummy variables. The first group included household characteristics (e.g. household size). The objective of exploring the relationship between these variables and food insecurity was to be able to describe food insecure households and identify how they were different from households that were food secure. The second group of variables included indicators hypothesized to be determinants of food insecurity based on the study's conceptual framework. Analyzing the relationship between these variables and indicators of food insecurity provides insight into why households are food insecure and could possibly suggest entry points for programming or policies aimed at mitigating food insecurity.

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary) Table 8: Characteristics of food insecure households - Odds ratios from simple logistic regression HH is mildly, moderately or severely food insecure HH is moderately or severely food insecure HH consumed foods from less than 5 food groups in past 24 hours 9.213*** 7.074*** 7.074*** 14.338*** 1.478 1.322*** 0.264*** 1.980*** 0.179*** 1.489** 1.83 0.464** 1.705*** 15.219*** 3.024*** 0.339*** 4.038*** 5.135*** 1.334 1.069 0.236** 3.142*** 0.249*** 0.759 2.223 <0.001** 1.624* 7.782*** 3.167*** 0.311*** 0.895 1.665** 1.207*** 0.87 2.141*** 0.302*** 1.146 3.778** 0.465 1.598*** 3.164* 2.853*** 0.362*** 4.802*** Insufficient household food supplies in any of the last 12 months 15.661*** 14.338*** 5.135***

Variable

HH is mildly, moderately or severely food insecure HH is moderately or severely food insecure HH consumed foods from less than 9.213*** 5 food groups in past 24 hours Insufficient household food supplies in any of the last 12 15.661*** months Female headed household 1.522* Household Size 1.312*** HH uses protected water source 0.465 HH lives in a ger 1.893*** Any savings in the past year 0.373*** Any loans taken in the last year 1.569** 1.599 Any transfer received in last month Size of landholdings (ha) 0.370 Were any HH members ill in the 1.664*** last 15 days? HH had an ill HH member and 11.991*** couldn't afford care % of total income from transfers 2.202*** % of total income from 0.464*** employment Stunted child in the HH 11.268*** * p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01

Table 8 provides detailed results for simple logistic regression modeling of the food insecurity dummy variables and household characteristics. Households that were food insecure according to one measure of food insecurity were significantly more likely to be food insecure according to other measures as well. For example a household which was categorized as food insecure according to the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale was nine times as likely to report low dietary diversity and sixteen times more likely to report inadequate food supplies over the past year than a household which the HFIAS categorized as food secure. Food insecure households were also characterized by a higher probability of being Christian and female headed, larger households, living in a ger, taking loans in the past year, reporting recent illness in the household, an inability to afford medical care, a higher likelihood of receiving income transfers, a larger proportion of household income coming from transfers and having malnourished children. Food secure households were more likely to use a protected water source, be Buddhist, give loans, have a larger proportion of income coming from employment and own more land. Determinants of food insecurity Table 9 presents the results of simple logistic regression modeling of food security dummy variables on indicators hypothesized to be determinants of food insecurity. These analyses identified three groups of determinants, those that exacerbated food insecurity, those that mitigated food insecurity and those that had no effect in either direction. Poverty, unemployment, a lack of job security, recent shocks and living in Baruun-Urt all made households significantly more likely to be food insecure, although the last determinant was only 9

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

significant at the 10% level. Poverty and unemployment had the strongest relationship with food insecurity. Both were significantly related to all four food security dummy variables. Lack of job security was strongly related to the household is food insecure (mild, moderate and severe) and to inadequate food supplies over the past year. However, there was not a significant relationship between this variable and dietary diversity or with the indicator of more severe food insecurity. Only one food security variable, the household is food insecure (mild, moderate and severe), was significantly related to recent shocks. Finally, two additional factors, loan taking and female headship, may negatively impact food security and therefore deserve discussion. To some degree, the significant relationship between taking a loan during the past year and being food insecure could simply reflect one consequence of food insecurity, namely the need to take loans to meet basic needs. For this reason, this variable was included in the section exploring characteristics of the food insecure. However, some evidence has suggested that taking loans may actually contribute to food insecurity if taking on debt does not lead to improvements in income and repayment obligations force households to reduce expenditure and consumption (Diagne 1998). Similarly, female headship was initially identified as a characteristic of food insecure households. However, when included in multivariate modeling which controlled for income, education, shocks, employment and assets, female headship was still a significant predictor of food insecurity. This suggests that female headship is not simply a proxy for lower income, less access to credit or fewer livestock. Rather, it indicates that some other, more fundamental issue related to gender is having a negative effect on the food security of these households.
Table 9: Hypothesized determinants of food insecurity - Odds ratios from simple logistic regression HH is mildly, moderately or severely food insecure HH consumed HH is foods from less moderately or than 5 food severely food groups in past 24 insecure hours 0.835*** 0.400 0.640 0.330*** 3.967*** 2.108 0.968*** 0.964 1.39 0.806*** 4.897*** 4.372*** 5.011*** 0.723*** 2.632 0.53 0.837 4.139*** 3.012 0.968** 0.202 1.734 0.790*** 8.905*** 5.643*** 8.757*** Insufficient household food supplies in any of the last 12 months 0.826** 1.501 0.976 0.600** 3.778*** 4.841*** 0.979** 0.590 1.476 0.869*** 4.138*** 3.650*** 4.365***

Variable

Highest level of education achieved 0.864*** by the HH head Moved to aimag center since 2005 0.933 HH owns and raise any livestock 0.622 HH owns any livestock that is raised 0.404*** by others HH Head is unemployed 2.824*** HH does not have job security 5.131*** Total value of transfers received in the 0.972*** past 1 month (10,000) Grown fruits or vegetables in the last 0.965 6 months HH experienced any recent shock 1.754** Total income from all sources (per 0.842*** capita) (10,000) HH is poor - < Mongolian Poverty 5.187*** Line HH is poor - <$1/day 3.622*** HH is poor - <$2/day 5.225*** * p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01

Education, livestock ownership, higher income, and larger income transfers appear to be factors that mitigate food insecurity. Higher income and larger transfers both made households significantly less likely to be food insecure, across all four food security outcome variables. The same was true 10

Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

for education, where each additional category of schooling (e.g. completed secondary school) attained by the household head was associated with a 15-28% decline in the likelihood of being food insecure. Finally, neither recent migration nor fruit and vegetable production were significantly related to any of the four outcome variables.

Discussion
The food security situation Overall, the results of the Aimag Center Food Security Assessment have provided, for the first time, clear empirical evidence of food insecurity among aimag center residents in Mongolia. While not statistically representative of Mongolia as a whole, it is likely that the findings from Baruun-Urt, Arvaiheer, Ulaangom and Khovd reflect the situation in the country's other aimag centers. The most pressing issues relate to the access dimension of food security. Based on the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, one third of households in the survey population were found to be food insecure (one quarter moderately or severely) Data from the Household Dietary Diversity Score indicator, another measure of access, found that 11% of households reported eating four or fewer types of food in the past 24 hours. In addition, information collected on seasonal patterns of food security suggests that the situation worsens considerably during the spring months when both food and employment are scarce. The food insecure population in the surveyed aimag centers is characterized by large household size, living in the ger districts and relying heavily on income from government transfers to meet household needs. The primary determinants of food insecurity (access) identified by this study were poverty, unemployment and lack of job security. Female headship and use of loans for consumption smoothing may also play a role. Issues related to food availability, utilization and sustainability also contribute to food insecurity at the aimag center level. Regarding availability, a range of basic food items appears to be generally available, year round, in aimag center markets. However, there are important seasonal fluctuations in the availability of specific food products (e.g. meat, produce and dairy) that have significant effects on the quantity, quality and cost of food available to aimag center residents. Contributing to these fluctuations is a lack of local production and inefficient food markets. High quality data on nutritional status was only collected in the western region aimags, thus constraining our ability to explore the utilization dimension of food security. Despite this limitation, our results paralleled those of earlier studies, finding that roughly one fifth of children under five years of age were stunted. In addition, 13% of the sampled children were overweight (WHZ > +2), an issue not discussed in other studies of nutritional status in Mongolia, but one with important implications for children's health. Observations during data collection, informal discussions with local Mercy Corps staff and previous research suggest that malnutrition in the aimag centers is likely due to a combination of poor feeding practices, a local diet that is high in fat and low in important micronutrients and poor growth monitoring by local healthcare institutions. Finally, about 13% of households had experienced a recent shock and, in the majority of cases, this had large financial implications, either because of declines in income or costs related to mitigating the shock's effects. Also, about 6% of employed household members felt that their jobs were not secure. Together, these results illustrate the types of vulnerability that could affect the sustainability of household food security. However, when compared with rural households in Mongolia, whose food security is much more vulnerable to natural disasters (e.g. drought and harsh winters), aimag centers are relatively better off.

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Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

Moving forward This evidence of food insecurity in Mongolian aimag centers, along with other findings from this assessment, has important implications for future programming in Mongolia. The following list provides a brief summary of possible activities to address food insecurity within aimag centers via two primary entry points, engagement with local food markets and promoting food security in lowincome urban households. Engaging with local food markets Improving access to risk mitigation products - Connecting businesses with risk mitigation products like index-based livestock insurance or health insurance would help to address vulnerability that can threaten both food supply and household access. Promotion of improved transportation and shipping systems - The assessment identified a number of issues related to the quality and quantity of transport services available to aimag center businesses. These findings suggest that initiatives to improve and streamline shipping services could have significant benefits for aimag businesses and consumers. Emphasize local food production for local consumption - Focusing on local food production takes advantage of local producer's comparative advantage in food production to build local businesses, increase labor demand, improve food availability and potentially reduce food prices in aimag centers. Increased engagement with traders and retailers - Often, programming has focused on rural producers and, to some extent, processors. However, in order to fully embrace food market development programming would need to more fully engage with other actors in the food supply chain, particularly traders and retailers. Infrastructure development - While large-scale construction projects (e.g. roads, power supply) are likely to be beyond the scope of potential NGO programming, support for the development of smaller infrastructure could be more feasible. For example, both simple underground vegetable storage cellars and more advanced cold storage facilities were identified as needs by local businesses. Promoting food security in low-income urban households Savings promotion - Promoting savings can assist households in reducing their reliance on credit for consumption smoothing and help household better prepare for future shocks. Vocational training - Job training, ideally in partnership with potential employers could address the need, identified by aimag center businesses, for a more highly skilled workforce. However, given that improving the quality of existing educational institutions is often more effective than post-graduate job training programs, new initiatives should considered working with existing schools and vocational training centers. Job creation initiatives - Two likely avenues to increase labor demand exist within aimag centers. First, promoting entrepreneurship through the provision of credit and business development assistance has the potential to create new businesses and new sources of employment. Second, since the primary obstacle to expansion for larger businesses was not credit access, a focus on broader market issues, as described above, is likely to be the best way to stimulate increased labor demand from larger companies. Nutrition education and improved growth monitoring Address gender issues - Any future programs that aim to alleviate food security should attempt to address the relationship between female headship and food insecurity. Options include a programmatic focus on female-headed households and/or female-headed businesses and the support of qualitative operations research to gain more insight into why this relationship exists.

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Mercy Corps Mongolia - Aimag Center Food Security Assessment (Summary)

Areas for further research In addition to further exploration of the role gender plays in food insecurity, a number of other areas exist where further research could be useful in developing and implementing future programming in Mongolia. Of particular importance would be a greater exploration of credit usage including a stronger focus on informal borrowing, an investigation of the impact of loans on household expenditure and consumption. An analysis of how other financial products, like savings and insurance could complement credit provision would also be useful. Other areas for research include further data on seasonal fluctuations in food insecurity and better data on malnutrition and its determinants,

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