Professional Documents
Culture Documents
i
N
School) = Schools that meets the toilet/student ration are counted and summed into whole
number integer
Total number of school (TSC) in the wereda, region and national level is determined based on the
following mathematical relationship
TSC =
i
N
School)
Where i indicate each individual school and N is the total number of schools in the wereda,
region or country level.
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0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 112
Methodological sheet for Indicator # 8b:
Details Description
Computation The indicator can be computed as:
100*[(
i
N
School) / TSC],
Whereas:
(
i
N
SC) =
Schools that meets the toilet/student ratio of 1 counted and summed into whole
number integer,
TSC
=
Total number of schools
N = Number of schools in the area considered; woreda, region or national
Units of measurements Indicator measured as a percentage, and it is dimensionless.
Determinants measured in whole numbers integers.
Data sources,
availability and quality
Data on number of schools with sanitation facilities and student populations is available from the
Woreda and Regional Education Bureau and Ministry of Education. The figures are aggregated to
produced regional and national statistics.
Scale of application Mainly national. However, data availability at lower administrative levels such as regional and wereda
levels would allow comparisons among woredas and regions and enable to determine gaps.
Geographical coverage National
Interpretation An increasing trend in sanitation coverage in schools in Ethiopia in general will show high priority
being assigned to improving the education environment and therefore increasing the enrollment of
young children and particularly girls.
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators, which capture the impact of improved environment
for school children,
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions
involved
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 9
Indicator name Unaccounted for water
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government and UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Water Supply
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
The proportion of unaccounted for water in many of the towns and cities in Ethiopia is
very much unknown, and it is expected to be very high. There will always be some
water that is unaccounted-for, because water is physically lost through cracks and leaks
in the system; storage facilities, distribution lines, etc., and water is also illegally used
from the distribution lines and water use is not properly metered. Therefore, water
managers are constantly investigating new ways to reduce the water loss through leaks
and bursts. Unaccounted for water, therefore, includes water that is lost through bursts
and leaks, taken through illegal connections or used through unread and or inaccurate /
non functioning meters.
Recent reports showed that the unaccounted for water in Addis Ababa is increasingly
growing estimated to reach between 35 and 40% of the total water abstracted or
withdrawal. In 2008 alone, unaccounted-for water made up approximately 37% of the
water abstracted from the different sources, springs, ground water and water from
treatment plants. Reduction of unaccounted for water requires enhanced capacity in
terms of monitoring the water supply system. In many developed countries, the plan
target is to reduce unaccounted-for water to 10% only at any time.
Position in DPSIR chain Pressure
Definition of indicator It is the percentage of the water abstracted and not used by the public services, and it is
expected as wastage in the storage and distribution systems. It is the volume of water
which cannot be accounted for in a system and it is a measurement that can vary
significantly with time, depending on the frequency and the seriousness of leaks, and
the length of time it takes to deal with those leaks. It also includes illegally used water.
Underlying definitions
and concepts
The indicator is based on the following definitions of variables for water use:
Water Abstraction: The total volume of water abstracted or withdrawal at source/s in
Mm3 ( or MMC)
Total Billing of water: It is the total bill collected for water use for the specified period
and converted to m
3
of water.
Physical loss of water: Water loss (m
3
) due to breakage, leakage through cracks, etc.
Commercial loss or administrative loss: Loss of water due to illegal users, meter not
reading, or meter reader did not read the meter.
Specification of
determinants needed
Total volume of freshwater withdrawal or abstracted (WW
TOTAL
) in m
3
Total billed water (V
BILL
) estimated in m
3
for the specified period. The data is
established from the bills collected from clients or users of the municipal water
services,
Total volume of water lost in the system, m3 - unaccounted water ,
(WW
TOTAL
V
BILL
)
Computation The indicator can be computed as expressed in percentage :
WW
UNACOUNTED
= 100*[(WW
TOTAL
V
BILL
)/ WW
TOTAL
]
Whereas:
WW
TOTAL
=
Total volume of water abstracted or withdrawal in MC
V
BILL
=
Total volume of billed water (MC) estimated from public spending.
WW
UNACOUNTED
= Water abstracted or withdrawal unaccounted in percentage
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 9
Details Description
Units of measurements Indicator measured as a percentage and it is dimensionless.
Determinants measured in volume of water (m
3
).
Data sources, availability
and quality
Data on water abstracted or withdrawal, bills collected public spending by economic
sectors is usually available from Municipalities or woreda water boards.
Scale of application Municipality, woreda, regional and country or national level
Geographical coverage Town and cities
Interpretation An increasing trend in the unaccounted for water indicates the need for
improvements in the design and construction and management of the water supply
systems, and the need for increased maintenance cost. The indicator will show the
need for increased monitoring to improve the physical losses and improve the
techniques on water bill reading, collection process and control, etc.
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators, such as access, investment on the
water supply, and macroeconomic policies in improving the water sector efficiency.
It is also related to increased revenue which in principle allows increased
investments in the water supply to the town and cities.
Alternative methods and
definitions
Increased monitoring, operation and maintenance, etc.
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions
involved
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 11S
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 10-a
Indicator name Functionality: Percentage (%) of functioning water supply systems (rural
areas)
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy and UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Operation and Maintenance of Water Supply Facilities
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
In sub Saharan Africa, it is estimated that 35% of improved rural water supplies are not
operational. Although there is no accurate data on functionality of water supply schemes for
Ethiopia, its situation may not be different. Such level of non-functionality of schemes means more
money and resource are diverted to secure water and manage the health related problems.
In order to support water supply schemes for better performance and sustainable services,
communities are participating in the planning, operation and maintenance services. The indicator
is, therefore, addresses the structural causes behind the poor conditions and repeated water supply
schemes failure. It provides data and information on the cause of failure, and supports decisions
that lead to repair, rehabilitation or reconstruction of existing systems and lays the foundation for
sustained service delivery at a scale with better functionality of schemes in the future.
Position in DPSIR
chain
Pressure
Definition of indicator It is the percentage of schemes that are reported as functioning i.e. provide water supply services at
a quantity and quality without interruption in a given period of time, mostly in a year period.
Underlying definitions
and concepts
It is the number of constructed water supply systems that are properly functioning or adequately
operating as expressed in percentage (%). Properly functioning water supply systems indicate
adequately maintained system usually by community in the rural areas of Ethiopia. The criteria for
a properly functioning water supply system in the rural areas may include:
Existence of a WASHCO
Presence of designated people trained on operation and maintenance and responsible, appropriate
tools in good working order
Up to data records account,
Then the water supply systems ensure the standard amount and quality of water for the users, i.e.
15 liters per capita per day for rural. The quality of water is on the basis of WHO or Ministry of
Water Resource quality standards.
The indicator presents a statistics of functioning water supply schemes (without interruptions) over
a given period of time.
Specification of
determinants needed
The number of functioning water supply schemes (N
F
)
Total number of water supply scheme in the area (TN
WSS
)
Computation Functionality (%) = 100*(N
F
/TN
WSS
)
Whereas:
NF = number of functioning water supply schemes
TN
WSS
= Total number of water supply scheme in the area
Units of measurements Percentage (%) and dimensionless
Data sources,
availability and quality
Data could be collected from each community with a constructed water supply schemes. Regular
report from WASHCO and Kebele manager is the main source of data for the indicator. However,
the data is not available as articulated here.
Scale of application Woreda, Region and country wide
Geographical coverage Selected administrative and political boundary
Interpretation An increasing trend in the percentage of functioning water supply facilities indicate the good
maintenance and operation services provided by the community and also improved health to the
people.
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 116
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 10-a
Details Description
Linkage with other indicators This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators, which capture the impact of
macroeconomic policies in improving the water sector efficiency. One variable of this
indicator is actual expenditure on operation and maintenance (O&M). It is also closely
related to the rate of O&M cost recovery indicator.
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further information
Other institutions involved
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 117
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 10-b
Indicator name Functionality: Number of hours of service interruptions per day for connected
households (urban)
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy and UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Operation and Maintenance of Water Supply Facilities
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
In sub Saharan Africa, it is estimated that 35% of improved rural water supplies are not
operational. Although accurate data on functionality of water supply schemes in Ethiopia is less
known, its situation may not be different. Such level of non-functionality of schemes means
more money and resource to access safe water and manage the health related problems.
In order to support water supply schemes for better performance and sustainable services, water
boards in towns are planning operation and maintenance (O&M) services. The indicator is,
therefore, addresses the structural causes behind the poor conditions and repeated schemes
failure. It provides data and information on the cause of failure, and supports decisions that lead
to repair, rehabilitation or reconstruction of existing systems in time and lays the foundation for
sustained service delivery at a scale with better functionality of schemes in the future.
Position in DPSIR chain Pressure
Definition of indicator It is the number of hours of service interruption per day for connected households (urban water
supply schemes) i.e. it provide water supply services without interruption in a given period of
time, mostly in a year time.
Underlying definitions and
concepts
It is the percentage of constructed water supply systems that are properly functioning or
adequately operating. Properly functioning water supply systems indicate adequately
maintained system usually by community in the rural areas of Ethiopia. The criteria for a
properly functioning water supply system in the rural areas may include:
Existence of a Water Board
Presence of designated people trained on operation and maintenance and responsible,
appropriate tools in good working order in all Municipalities
Up to data records account,
Then the water supply systems should ensure the standard amount and quality of water for the
users, i.e. 20 liters per capita per day and an acceptable water quality standard (WHO and
MoWE).
The indicator presents a statistics of functioning water supply schemes (without interruptions)
over a given period of time.
Specification of
determinants needed
The number of hours water supply services is interrupted per day (HOUR
NF
)
Total number of hours the water supply scheme is operating (TOT
HOURS
)
Computation The number of hours of interruption is computed based on defined time periods such as; one,
two, three, four, five and six hours (most commonly used periods).
Functionality expressed in hours of service interruptions per day for connected households
(urban)
One hour period service interruptions:
= ( NHH
NF
/ TOT
HHs
)
Two hours period service interruptions:
= ( NHH
NF
/ TOT
HHs
) So on..
Where as
NHH
NF
= Number of households with service interruption during the period,
TOT
HHs
= Total number of households with connected water supply.
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 10-b
Details Description
Units of measurements dimensionless ratio
Data sources, availability
and quality
Data could be collected from each municipality or town and city water board.
Scale of application Municipalities and woredas
Geographical coverage Selected administrative and political boundary
Interpretation
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators, which capture the impact of
macroeconomic policies in improving the water sector efficiency. One variable of this
indicator is actual expenditure on operation and maintenance (O&M). It is also closely
related to the rate of O&M cost recovery indicator.
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions
involved
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 119
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 11
Indicator name Volume of wastewater treated before discharge (as % of total discharges)
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government - UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Sanitation
Rationale / aspect of
the challenge area
The wastewater generated from domestic and industrial sources are hazardous to public
health and the environment through exposing the people to diseases and long term sickness
and even mortality. It is important to contain the direct contact of these wastes with humans,
and one way is to collect and treat the wastewater before release to streams/rivers or to the
ecosystem or reuse for irrigation. Monitoring the volume of wastewater treated indicate the
level of intervention in the wastewater treatment effort.
In many developing countries a large proportion of wastewater is discharged to the
environment with little or no treatment. In the metropolitan Addis, the volume of wastewater
treated is not more than 4% of the potential wastewater released from resident population and
industrial areas. This indicates that about 96% of the wastewater generated is either contained
in individual septic tanks or released to streams and rivers. This is economically, socially,
and environmentally unsustainable given especially in light of the fast growing population,
urbanization and industrialization of cities. Pollution of freshwater systems is growing and
this depletes freshwater resources and reduces the availability. Climate change and associated
water scarcity, and the need for more water to expand irrigated agriculture to meet the
countrys food security makes the situation of freshwater systems a big challenge for water
managers, agriculturalists, environmentalists and policy makers. Wastewater treatment is,
therefore, central to the requirements for sustainable use and management of our freshwater
systems. It is also important for public heath and safety.
Presently there is no standard wastewater treatment plant for Addis Ababa. The situation is
worse for other growing cities such as Awassa, Mekele, Nazareth, Bahar Dar, and Dire
Dawa. The challenge today is the heavy investment required in wastewater treatment in these
cities and the scarce financial resources available for pollution control.
Position in DPSIR
chain
Pressure
Definition of
indicator
The volume of wastewater treated per year based on the total potential volume of wastewater
actually generated
Underlying
definitions and
concepts
The generation of liquid waste from households and industries are collected and treated in a
treatment plant. However, not all liquid wastes are collected and treated in Ethiopia. In
Ethiopia, sewerage designs are made on the basis of an estimate on total wastewater from
each household, about 80% of the water supplied to each household is expected to leave each
household as wastewater.
The proportion of wastewater treated is the percentage of water consumed and returned to the
environment. The volume of wastewater produced is then measured by simple measurement
made available (estimating the volume passing through a measuring device) and or the
volume that enter to the treatment plant at the municipal level. Industries can have their own
independent measuring device put in place.
This indicator assesses the potential level of pollution from domestic and
industrial/commercial point sources entering the aquatic environment, and monitors progress
towards reducing this potential within a framework of integrated water resources
management. It helps to identify communities where wastewater treatment action is required
to protect health of the public and the ecosystem.
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 12u
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 11
Details Description
Specification of
determinants needed
Wastewater treated (WW
T
)in volume of fluid (m3) prior to discharge
Total volume of wastewater (TV
WW
) estimated at 80% of the total water supply estimated in
volume of fluid (m3)
Computation The proportion of domestic waste (sewage) treated in urban areas can be determined on the
basis of the quantity of water consumed by households as compared to the capacity of
wastewater treatment facilities. It can also be estimated on the basis of areas of a community
connected to the sewerage system and the population inhabiting these localities.
In the case of industrial waste a similar approach can be taken for those installations which
are connected to a central sewerage system, using water consumption and allowing for the
differentiation between process and cooling waters used by the industries. In many cases, the
most preferred is that industrial establishments, either discharging their effluents direct or
through the public sewerage system, need to have their own treatment facilities with specific
design and construction based on their own kind of pollutants generated.
As far as the efficacy of treatment is concerned, this can only be determined from the
performance information for each waste treatment plant judged against established discharge
criteria and standard.
Therefore the indicator - proportion of wastewater treated (WW
T
) before discharge in
percentage can be computed as follows:
Percentage of WW
T
= 100* [WW
T
/TV
WW
]
Where
WW
T
= Wastewater treated in volume of fluid (m3) prior to discharge
TV
WW
= Total volume of wastewater estimated at 80% of the total water supply
(m
3
)
Units of
measurements
MCM or Mm
3
of wastewater treated or Percentage (%) of volume of wastewater treated
Data sources,
availability and
quality
The data required include records of urban water board or water supply authorities' meter
readings; and performance of waste treatment facilities; information on industrial waste
treatment plants; information from wastewater laboratories; and number of house connections
to the sewerage system.
The data sources are water supply and sanitation authorities, town water boards. Data is often
not available, or is incomplete. Without surveys of individual industrial establishments or
environmental impact assessments associated with new industrial developments, data will
remain partial or, at best not of professional estimates. Presently for Addis Ababa, data are
less available in the desired quantity and quality.
Scale of application
Geographical
coverage
Interpretation
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator has important linkages to other socioeconomic and environmental indicators,
such as annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, the levels of biochemical oxygen
demand (BOD) in water resources, concentration of faecal coli forms, population growth,
informal settlements, infrastructure expenditure, and generation of waste.
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 121
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 11
Details Description
Alternative methods and
definitions
The proportion of wastewater treated can be converted into a quantity of wastewater.
It may be practical and useful to keep household, and commercial and industrial
wastes separate if it is possible.
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions involved Public and Private Water Utilities
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 122
Methodological sheet for Indicator # 15
Indicator name Percent of population affected by waterborne diseases
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government in collaboration with UN-DESA
Example Indicator under development
Challenge area Health
Rationale /aspect of
the challenge area
There are four broad categories of water-related diseases (Peter H. Gleick, 2002), and these
include: (i) Waterborne Diseases: these diseases are caused by ingestion of contaminated
water, and these include cholera, typhoid, amoebic and bacillary dysentery and other
diarrheal diseases, (ii) Water-washed diseases: these diseases are caused by poor personal
hygiene and skin or eye contact with contaminated water, and these diseases include
scabies, trachoma, flea, lies and tick borne diseases, (iii) Water-based diseases: These
diseases are caused by parasites found in intermediate organisms living in contaminated
water, and these diseases include dracunculisasis, schistosomiasis, and other helminthes,
and (iv) Water related diseases: these diseases are caused by insect vectors, especially
mosquitoes, that breed in water; most common in Ethiopia is malaria.
The indicator is limited only to data and information on waterborne diseases. World Bank
(2004) reported that about 40% of childhood deaths and 88% of the diseases in Ethiopia are
attributed to the use of unsafe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) practices.
The report made an estimate that the average child under 5 years of age has 5 episodes of
diarrhea per year.
The waterborne diseases are preventable, however regularly monitored data and
information on water quality of water supply facilities is less available to take appropriate
policy decision.
Position in DPSIR chain Pressure
Concept and Definition
of the Indicator
The percentage of population affected by cholera, typhoid, amoebic and bacillary dysentery
and other diarrheal diseases in a given population catchment kebel, woreda, zone,
regional and national level.
Specification of
determinants needed
(i) Number of people affected by each type of waterborne diseases; cholera, typhoid,
amoebic and bacillary dysentery and other diarrheal diseases, x , where x is the total
number of people affected by each waterborne diseases type mentioned above,
(ii) Total number of people affected by all waterborne diseases,
P = x
1
, where r is the disease type 1 to r,
(iii) Total population in the catchment area, POP
Method of Computation The indicator is computed as follows:
100*(
P
POP
)
Where as:
P= Total number of people affected by all waterborne diseases in the population catchment
area,
POP = Total population in the catchment area (source: population census report)
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 12S
Methodological sheet for Indicator # 15
Details Description
Indicator Relevance For policy decisions and monitoring progress of actions
Units of measurements Percentage (%)
Data sources, availability
and quality
Kebele Health Posts, Woreda Health Center, hospitals, Baseline studies, etc.
Scale of application Kebele, woreda, zonal, region and national level
Geographical coverage Kebele level and woreda level (basic), regional and national
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 124
Methodological Sheet for Indicator # 19
Indicator name Ratio of hydrological measurement stations fully operational over WMO
standard Requirements
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy and UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Water Resources/Hydrology
Rationale / aspect of
the challenge area
Hydrological stations are needed for such specific purposes as reservoir operation, irrigation, water quality
monitoring, flood forecasting, or research.
Position in DPSIR
chain
State
Definition of
indicator
It is defined as the ratio of the average area served by hydrological station that meet the WMO
standard over the area of the existing hydrological networks density in a any given river basin. The
calculation is made by dividing the area of the territory by the total number of hydrological stations
operated within the river basin.
Underlying
definitions and
concepts
The purpose of the indicator is to assess the adequacy of existing hydrological networks in providing
the necessary information on hydrology, stream flow, and freshwater resources in the context of
freshwater assessment. Data on freshwater are important to support sustainable development.
The density of hydrological stations should be sufficient to avoid deficiencies in assessing,
developing, and managing water resources. The density of hydrological networks is measured as the
average area for one hydrological station. The territory in question may be divided according to its
physiographic and/or climatic features. The density is understood as a set of values representing
densities of stations monitoring different hydrological variables; such as, precipitation, stream flow,
groundwater, sediment load, water quality (for surface water, groundwater and sediment), and
evaporation. the first step should be
Minimum network is the establishment of a minimum network the minimum number of stations, which the
collective experience of hydrological agencies of many countries has indicated to be necessary to initiate
planning for the economic development of the water resources (WMO, 1994. A guide to Hydrologic
Practices). The minimum network or WMO standard networking of Hydro- meteorological stations is one
that will avoid serious deficiencies in developing and managing water resources on a scale commensurate
with the overall level of economic development of the country. A minimum network will provide the basic
framework for network expansion to meet future needs for specific purposes. Once the minimum network is
operating, regionalized hydrological relationships, interpreted information, and models can be formulated
for estimating general hydrological characteristics, including rainfall and runoff at any location in the area.
The basic network of observing stations should be adjusted over time until regional hydrological
relationships can be developed for un-gauged areas that provide the appropriate level of information.
The network is understood here to comprise a series of sub-networks each composed of gauges and
stations within a physical entity, the river basin or sub basin or catchment, which are collecting data on
a different hydrological variable.
The indicator is based on the following definitions:
Hydrological measurement stations include stream/river gauge stations, and and some times include
meteorological stations where rainfall/precipitation, evaporation, evapo-transpiration, etc. are
measured. Hydrological Network: This is a network of several hydrological gauge stations and or
meteorological stations in a given are; catchment or river basin.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization) has established a standard network of hydrological
stations for a given geographic area in a river basin. We say a network of hydrological stations is
compliant to the WMO standards when such network size is attained.
The minimum network: The number of hydrological and meteorological network density recommended for a
given watershed
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 12S
Methodological Sheet for Indicator # 19
Details Description
Specification of
determinants needed
Number of hydrological measurement stations
Standard hydrological measurement stations per unit area in a river basin
Computation The WMO recommended the following network densities for hydrological and
meteorological stations.
Physical condition
of the area
Minimum densities per station Unit
(area in km2 per station)
Hydrological Meteorological
Stream Gauges Non-recording Recording
Mountainous 1000 250 2500
Hilly/undulating 1875 575 5750
Interior plains 1875 575 5750
Source: WMO, 1994. A guide to Hydrological Practice
Table 5 Existing densities of gauge stations in each River Basin in Ethiopia
River Basin
Area
(000
m
2
)
Runof
f
(BMC
/yr)
Existing Hydrological network (stream
gauges)
(Number of gauge stations in each basin)
Presentl
y
availabl
e
To be
Rehabi
litated
WMO
Recommende
d network
density
Gap
Abaye 199,810 51.00 160 11 130 None
Tekeze 90,001 7.63 39 3 47 8
Baro
Akobo
74,102 11.89 31 2 39 8
Genale 171,042 5.88 34 3 68 34
Wabi
Shebele
202,697 3.16 30 9 61 31
Mereb 7,180 0.26 3 1 4 1
Omo Gibe 78,213 17.96 46 6 54 8
Afar
Denakil
2,223 - 10 8 18 8
Awash 112,697 4.60 71 1 58 None
Rift Valley 52,739 5.64 54 2 43 None
Ogaden 77,121 - None None None None
Aysha 2,223 0 None None None None
Units of measurements Indicator measured as a percentage.
Data sources,
availability and quality
The principle source for hydrological and meteorological data in Ethiopia is the Water
Resources Information Directorate under the Hydrology Sub Directorate and the
National Meteorological Services Agency in the Ministry of Water Energy. With
regard to meteorological data, there are other data collecting organizations such as
Ethiopian Civil Aviation, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research and
Universities. There are enough data on rainfall and limited hydrological data for the
rivers and stream in the river basin.
Scale of application River basin
Geographical coverage River Basin
Interpretation An increasing trend in improving the hydro-meteorological network in the country
improves the quality of hydrological and meteorological information generated.
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators on freshwater resource monitoring
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 126
Methodological Sheet for Indicator # 19
Details Description
Alternative methods and
definitions
The indicator can be expressed in terms of a network of hydrological and meteorological
instruments as per the WMO standard network or less for more reliable information.
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
A guide to Hydrological Practices by WMO 1994. Chapter 20
Other institutions
involved
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
0niteu Nations Bevelopment foi Economic anu Social Affaiis (0NBESA) Annex Page 127
Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 21
Indicator name Percentage (%) of stakeholders represented in the planning process
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopia Government, Ministry of Water Energy in collaboration with UN-DESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Governance
Rationale / aspect of
the challenge area
Recently we have witnessed significant changes in the strategy of water sector implementation;
from project based to an integrated approach and to a serious engagement in advocacy of policy
issues, good practices and governance for sustainable development. Some of the key trends
causing this change are the increasing social, economic and environmental challenges. Over the
last one decade, there has been proactive engagement and growing influence of donors,
multilateral and bilateral organizations particularly in the water and sanitation (WaSH) sub sector
than any other sub sector. This engagement is also true at community and woreda level.
After the promulgation of the National Water Sector Policy, opportunities have been opened for
stakeholders in water sector for stronger and regular participation in planning, policy dialogue,
etc. with the government. As a result many are finding value in the process of stakeholders
engagement in the project development cycles particularly in planning, monitoring and
evaluation. Stakeholders participation particularly at community level in the planning process is
one aspect of the changes and progresses made in the water sector.
Getting the right stakeholders for the planning process in water sector can be challenging. Often
there are conflicting demands for water among the different stakeholders within a community and
development partners in the sector. It can be challenging to bring them on to the table first and for
most in identifying the appropriate stakeholders who are representative of common interests. It is
always important that we should take a more multilateral approach, being a party to the broader
debate in which the community itself reconciles its own differences on priorities. But for dialogue
and planning all stakeholders are important and participation by each is crucial.
The basic reason we do planning with stakeholders is because we need each other. Community,
public (Governments), non- governmental organizations, private and other partners NGOs are
necessary partners in moving towards a sustainable future. This is a very practical approach to
planning and dealing with complex issues.
Position in DPSIR
chain
Response
Definition of indicator Percentage of the stakeholders in water sector represented in the planning process
Underlying definitions
and concepts
The indicator is based on the following definitions:
Planning is a process of setting goals, developing strategies, and outlining tasks and schedules to
accomplish a set of goal/s.
Stakeholders: a person, group or organization with an interest in a water project. A proper
identification of stakeholders is essential for engagement.
Water Sector Planning Process:
Stakeholder roles: establishing a clear understanding of their roles and responsibilities is critical
for a stakeholder participation in a project planning:
Clarify overall project goals and objectives
Review the scoping-level analysis and
recommendations for future, general options to explore
Provide input on proposed water quality and quantity indicators and targets
Help develop evaluation criteria for analyzing management options
Help screen for promising management options to model
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 21
Details Description
Underlying definitions
and concepts (continue)
Review findings of the modeling analysis and provide input on the preferred
management strategies
Review and provide input on the proposed monitoring plan
Review and provide input on the draft management plan
Help conduct community education and outreach throughout the process
Specification of
determinants needed
Number of stakeholders represented in the planning process (n) of water projects
Total number of stakeholders in water sector
Computation The indicator can be computed as:
100*(n/N)
Where:
n =
Number of stakeholders represented in a planning process in water sector
N =
Total number of stakeholders in water sector.
Units of measurements Indicator measured as a percentage (%) and dimensionless.
Determinants measured in whole integer number
Data sources,
availability and quality
Kebele Manger and WASHCO and woreda water offices are the source of data for the
indicator
Scale of application Local and national.
Geographical coverage At catchment and River basin level
Interpretation An increasing trend in the participation of stakeholders in the planning process at local,
regional and national level will show high level of participation and the reliability and
quality of planning in the sector.
Linkage with other
indicators
Alternative methods
and definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions
involved
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Methodological sheet for Indicator # 21
Indicator name Number of people trained in water related discipline (per 1000)
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government - UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Governance
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
The quality of the human resource in a country is often called its capacity. The staff
structure of the water sector offices at the different level of hierarchy, the balance
between capacity building and service delivery, and even emergency services, all have
implications for the deployment of the human resources in the sector. Most important
and may be a strategic approach to capacity building is the training of sector staff in their
respective field of interest and to meet strategic interest and objectives of the sector
management. Training is an input like financial, physical and human resources required
to meet sector goals.
This indicator will provide evidence to the growing demand for skilled personnel in the
sector.
Position in DPSIR chain Response
Definition of indicator Number of people trained in water related discipline (per 1000) of the target population
in the water related disciplines.
Underlying definitions and
concepts
Ethiopia does have a wide range of educational establishments catering for the water
sector, from vocational and technical institutes to post-graduate courses at university
level, including specialist organizations such as the JICA water well drilling training
center. There are also several secondary vocational schools that give training in water.
Beside the formal educational establishments, there are also in-house trainings by NGOs,
consultants and trainers available to run courses and workshops for community and their
own staffs. Such trainings have to be reported.
Trained persons: number of people who receive training in water related disciplines at
all levels (from community, intuitions and organizations including higher institutions)
Water Sector: The water sector generally comprises: (i) water resources, climate and its
environment, (ii) infrastructure management in various sub-sectors such as water supply
(for urban and rural domestic needs, livestock and industrial needs); sewer and
wastewater treatment; basic sanitation; rainwater harvesting, irrigation and drainage;
flood protection; and IWRM, (iii) water governance (policies, laws, legislation and
regulations and institutions).
Specification of
determinants needed
The number of people trained (N) in water related discipline over a period.
Total number of people under consideration (POP
TOT
)
Computation Data on number of people trained in water related discipline annually or on any agreed
upon time period estimated in 1000 population.
= (N/ POP
TOT
) * 1/1000
Units of measurements Number of people
Data sources, availability
and quality
Woreda, regional and national level
Scale of application Kebele, woreda, region and country level
Geographical coverage Woreda, regional and national level
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Methodological sheet for Indicator # 21
Details Description
Interpretation An increasing trend in number of people trained in water related disciplines in general will
show high performance in capacity building of the water sector development program.
When the training is disaggregated by water sub-sectors, this indicator can also show
priorities and commitment in the development of the capacity in the sector. Increased
number of trained persons and building the capacity in water sector has a positive bearing
on poverty reduction through (i) improving access to safe drinking water supply; (ii)
improving access to basic sanitation; (iii) improved water productivity in various economic
sectors; and IWRM practices which will impact the macro economy of the country.
Linkage with other indicators
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions involved
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Methodological sheet for Indicator # 24
Indicator name Irrigated area using advanced practices (% of total irrigated area)
by type of technology
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy, FAO and UNDESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Response
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
Improved and modern (advanced) practices or technologies in irrigation include high
efficiency furrow irrigation, sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation. The total irrigated
areas developed under advanced irrigation practices are important to determine the
preferred choice of technology for investment, management needs, to identify suitable
technology in the country.
Position in DPSIR chain Response
Definition of indicator It is the total irrigated area (ha) developed under different advanced irrigation practices
expressed as a ratio of the total irrigated area/land in the country expressed in
percentage.
Underlying definitions and
concepts
The indicator is based on the following definitions:
Advanced Practices in Irrigation: These include high efficiency furrow irrigation,
sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation.
Specification of determinants
needed
Total irrigated area under each type of advanced irrigation practices (or type of
technology) :
Total Area under high efficiency Furrow Irrigation System (TA
FURO
)
Area under Drip System (TA
DRIP
)
Area under Sprinkler System (TA
SPRI
)
Computation The indicator can be computed as irrigated area by type of technology:
Total Area under high efficiency Furrow Irrigation System (TA
FURO
)
Total Area under high efficiency Basin Irrigation System (TA
BAIRR
)
Area under Drip System (TA
DRIP
)
Area under Sprinkler System (TA
SPRI
)
Or expressed as percentage of total irrigated area:
(i) Total Area under high efficiency Furrow Irrigation System (TA
FURO
)
expressed as percentage of the total irrigated area
=100*[ TA
FURO
/TOT
IRRA
]
(ii) Total Area under high efficiency Basin Irrigation System (TA
BAIRR
)
expressed as percentage of the total irrigated area
=100*[ TA
BAIRR
/TOT
IRRA
]
(iii) Total Area under Drip System (TA
DRIP
) expressed as percentage of the
total irrigated area
= 100*[ TA
DRIP
/TOT
IRRA
]
(iv) Total Area under Sprinkler System (TA
SPRI
) expressed as percentage of
the total irrigated area
= 100*[ TA
SPRI
/TOT
IRRA
]
Units of measurements Whole number integer or percentage
Data sources, availability and
quality
Data on advanced technology use can be obtained from woreda Agriculture offices and
Regional Water Bureau.
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Methodological sheet for Indicator # 24
Details Description
Scale of application Mainly national. However, data availability at lower administrative levels
would allow comparisons between woredas and regions within a country.
Geographical coverage Woreda, regional and country level
Interpretation The increasing trend in the total irrigated area by a certain advanced irrigation
technology shows the preference and adaptability of the technology in large
parts of the country.
Linkage with other
indicators
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions involved
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 25
Indicator name Hand Washing Prevalence
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy and UN-DESA
Example Indicator under development
Challenge area Health hygiene
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
Most pathogens that cause diseases find their way to human body through the hands
of human beings. Unhygienic hands contribute much of the human sickness and even
mortality. Children are direct and front line groups to such infections. Unclean hands
contaminate food and pollute household water. Good hygiene education and
improved environmental health conditions reduced the risk to exposure to pathogens.
Life skills start at early age. Most often important hygiene skill like hand washing
and other hygiene practices are learned at school level.
Two things are important for a sustainable prevalence of hand washing:
Hygiene should be promoted among the people
Water and soap or ash has to be made available
Position in DPSIR chain State
Definition of indicator The number of people hand washing at critical times
Underlying definitions and
concepts
Food preparers and child care givers prepare most of the food in the household and
provide most of the care for young children. People have to hand wash before and
after meal. Appropriate hand washing behavior demands its use at critical time and
technique:
Critical time for hand washing :
After defecation,
After exposed to possible exposure to contamination of hands,
Before food preparation,
Before eating,
Before feeding children and after cleaning their bottoms,
Hand Washing Techniques:
Use water
Use soap or ash
Wash Both hands
Rubs hands together at least three times,
Dries hands hygienically using clean close
Specification of
determinants needed
Number of people hand washing using soap or ash at critical times
Computation Number of people practicing hand washing with soap or ash at critical time.
It can also be computed based on a defined community or group or people in an
institution. The computation can be done:
Number of people/students/etc. who report and demonstrate appropriate hand
washing behavior
Divided by
Total number of people interviewed in the sample
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Methodological sheet developed for indicator # 25
Details Description
Specification of determinants
needed
Number of people hand washing using soap or ash at critical times
Units of measurements Ratio and a dimensionless unit
Data sources, availability and
quality
Hand washing can be measured by self reporting of its practice at critical time and
demonstration of the technique in a household survey. The data is unavailable, and if
there is its data quality is unreliable to reflect the actual condition. There is less
experience in data generation in hand washing.
Scale of application Household, Community, group with specialized functions such as food preparers,
institutions such as school children, training camps, household members, etc.
Geographical coverage Woreda, region and National
Interpretation The increasing trend in the hand washing practices shows improved hygiene as a
result of growing behavioral change among the target groups.
Linkage with other indicators Health, sanitation and environmental
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets UNICEF WHO
USAID Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance
Sources of further
information
Other institutions involved
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Methodological Sheet for indicator # 26
Indicator name Number of research articles on water sector in a reputable journal
Details Description
Prepared by Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Water Energy and UN-DESA
Example Under development
Challenge area Research and Knowledge Management Systems
Rationale / aspect of the
challenge area
The growing interest and appetite for Knowledge to unlock most development problems
demanded increased investment in research. Academia and research institutes are center of
excellence in research work. Many researches in policy, natural sciences, economics,
technology, etc., are of importance to academia, researchers and policy makers. Some
researches in these areas may be conducted and some of these research outputs are never
reported and this information could be used as input for the countrys development effort. This
has demanded the need to organize and publish research outputs (knowledge) on a regular
basis.
Monitoring knowledge and its production and access to public is a crucial input for policy and
decision making. Report based on Thompson Reuters Database to track Scientific (research)
Publications globally indicated that China has more than doubled its scientific research
activities and outputs to run second only to the United States in terms of volume of research
publications. In Africa three nations dominate Africas Research output (knowledge
production) with South Africa leading by a long way ahead of Egypt followed by Nigeria. The
overall volume of research activity and outputs in Africa remains smaller than The
Netherlands alone. Therefore, the number of research articles in publications is an important
indicator of Knowledge Management (KM) which has bearing on the development
performance of a country.
In Ethiopia, there are inadequate research establishments to generate enough knowledge
annually to support the development effort of the country compared to South Africa, or Egypt
or Nigeria. Research activities and annual research articles published in a reputable journal are
very few to none.
In Ethiopia, in 2010 a small knowledge management center for water sector is established in
the Ministry of Water Energy, under the Water Resources Research and Development
Directorate. This office record research activities in the sector by different institutions such as
higher learning and research institutions in the country. The data on the number of research
articles annually published in progress report and on reputable journals will be collected in a
database.
Position in DPSIR chain Pressure
Definition of indicator No of research articles published on water sector in a reputable journal from activities
conducted in Ethiopia.
Underlying definitions
and concepts
The indicator is based on the following definitions:
Water Sector: The water sector generally comprises: (i) water resource and climate/hydrology,
(ii) infrastructure in various sub-sectors such as water supply for urban and rural, livestock and
industrial needs); sewer and waste-water treatment; basic sanitation; rainwater harvesting,
irrigation and drainage; navigation on rivers or lakes; flood protection; (iii) hydropower and
dams, (iv) IWRM, and (v) socio economics and water governance.
Research Publications: They are publication of research in water sector that provides open
access to information and knowledge.
Reputable Journal: It is a journal with a good reputation. Scientific journals are reliable and
hence reputable among the users.
Specification of
determinants needed
Number of research articles in water sector published annually in a reputable journal (n)
Total number of researches activities conducted in the water sector annually (T)
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Methodological Sheet for indicator # 26
Details Description
Computation The indicator can be computed as:
Number of research publications in a reputable journal
Or in percentage as:
100*(n/T)
Where:
n =
Total number of research articles published in a reputable journal annually.
T
=
Total number of research activities conducted in water sector annually.
Units of measurements Indicator measured as a percentage.
Determinants measured in whole integer number
Data sources, availability
and quality
Data on research publications are obtained from higher learning institutions or Universities
and National and International Research Institution in Ethiopia. Data are available at
institutional level, but need to be networked to make the knowledge accessible and useable.
There is very little work done so far to collect and compile water sector knowledge.
Scale of application Mainly national (country) level, but it can also be used at each higher learning and research
institution level.
Geographical coverage The research activities in water sector should be organized and managed at River Basin level.
The aggregated value may give a national picture.
Interpretation An increasing trend in water sector research activities and number of research activities
published in a reputable journal show the growing generation of knowledge in water sector
and also high priority that is being assigned to the water sector in terms of knowledge
production to support the water sector development in the country.
Linkage with other
indicators
This indicator is linked to the chain of indicators, which capture the impact of macroeconomic
policies in improving the water sector efficiency.
Alternative methods and
definitions
Related indicator sets
Sources of further
information
Other institutions
involved
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
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Annex D
A Review of Monitoring Rainfall Variability
Stiengthening Watei Sectoi Nonitoiing anu Infoimation System in Ethiopia: uIRWI Pioject Phase II
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A Review of Rainfall Variability a Case in Ethiopia
1. Introduction
As a background information, available climatic data and works on climatic variability were reviewed
and presented here to reinforce the notion how significant it is to monitor climate variability in order to
cope with the impacts and adapt to the need for water, food and shelter. The available information
demonstrate how much sever is rainfall variability in different parts of the country. The impact of this
variability is often manifested in the form of drought, flood, food shortage, loss of animals, migration of
people, etc.
1.1 Rainfall is an important input and source of freshwater systems and influence the availability
and distribution of the freshwater resources in the country. Most rainfall occurs in the western and
central parts of the country (see fig 2 and 3) with low and erratic rainfall occurring in the rift valley,
eastern and southern lowland. Its variability and seasonality significantly affects the availability of
freshwater both in quantity and quality and hence affects the agricultural performance and national
economy in the country.
Fig 3 Mean annual number of days (1971-2005) Fig 4 Mean Annual Rainfall (1971-2005)
1.2 The rainfall variability in Ethiopia is manifested by several physical characteristics as describe
below (i) Rainfall variability within the season (starting and cessation periods is one important
characteristic that can affect the agricultural production. A late start usually means a short season and
vice versa (Sivakumar, 1988). A short season means a low production potential for the main cereal
crops in Ethiopia (Millet and Sorghum) (Kassam and Andrews). The production potential of long cycle
crops is largely the function of the length of the rainfall season which can be affected by the late start,
or else early cessation. Moreover, the impact of the success of the sowing activity is largely dependent
on the characteristics of the rainfall onset. Thus the lateness or the early start of the rainfall season
and or the time of the cessation of the rainfall season can affect either in affecting the success of the
sowing activity or else in the determination of the type of the crop to be cultivated. (ii) Dry spells in the
rainy season influences the availability of water/soil moisture for crop production. The high number of
dry spells and their duration matters in the rainfall variability analysis of a season. Dry spells in June
affects the planting of crops of most cereals and pulses, and the establishment of seedlings, and it is a
very critical, and it has agronomic significance.
Dark = more
Lighter=less
White = No rain
Dark = more
Lighter=less
White = No rain
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1.3 The figures below (5,6,7,8,9 and 10) show the rainfall probability of occurrences and the
magnitude of dry spell during the different rainfall seasons. On the maps, the red shows dry, yellow
mild and green wet conditions during the different seasons. Seasonal rainfall variability [the amount
and temporal and spatial distribution] is shown in the figures below. The first figure shows the
coefficient of variability of the seasonal rainfall for Belg (short rainy season of Mid Feb-Mid May) and
kiremt (the main rainy season which occur between June and September). The figures show that there
is high inter-annual variability of the seasonal rainfall especially in the short rainy season, where as
inter - seasonal rainfall variability is less during the Kiremt season in the central and western part of the
country.
Fig 5. CV of Belg (Feb-May) Season RF Fig 6. CV of Kiremt (June to Sept) Season RF
Fig 7. CV of annual Rainfall Fig 8. Dry spell for the month of June
Source: NMSA, 2005. Coefficient of Variability of seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Red=>30%
Yellow=<30%
Red=>30%
Yellow=<30%
Green = >20%
Red=>30%
Yellow=20-30%
Green = <20%
Red=>80%
Yellow=20-80%
Green = <20%
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
41 43
51
43
65
50
54
48
41
31
33
21
60
28
87
49
51
26
66
47
38
88
53
26
49
30
53
49
57
48
64
48
66
60
49
28
26
41
68
75
31
89
83
54
48
39
29
33
46
61
39
72
71
46
30
48
31
51
28
58
37
56
35
63
171
35
66 43
57
23
29
32
29
85
41
39
44
34 35
52
79
41
59
72
43
49
55
40
88
54
68
38
40
53
32
54
36
39
51
39
42
33
28
56
48
59
57
39
49
45
99
39
28
63
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
18 16
29
24
46
35
27
45
29
18
14
31
67
23
74
31
30
20
17
38
18
73
27
21
32
25
54
35
26
31
92
33
35
21
31
36
26
13
146
59
26
59
25
39
38
51
38
25
19
63
23
44
231
24
35
31
22
43
54
33
32
38
21
46
53
33
62 47
46
17
46
23
43
67
23
63
36
27 26
36
44
26
35
24
26
27
26
31
37
27
103
55
20
31
30
38
20
31
26
28
31
32
20
44
45
52
38
65
30
29
48
36
38
20
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 14
34
19
45
31
25
41
24
13
14
21
49
19
54
35
24
18
16
34
17
68
25
17
27
27
49
27
27
32
49
37
37
21
22
26
25
12
69
54
24
48
34
30
36
39
37
23
31
50
21
50
73
23
32
33
25
40
30
33
17
37
18
44
28
25
51 33
43
15
23
27
22
62
16
32
29
24 29
36
39
23
38
20
22
19
24
29
52
22
57
34
20
31
29
32
20
30
27
24
27
28
24
40
32
44
28
39
29
30
55
31
24
23
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0.03 0.04
0.43
0.12
0.23
0.13
0.46
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.36
0.43
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.11
0.30
0.00
0.80
0.53
0.03
0.11
0.00
0.05
0.72
0.16
0.62
1.00
0.00
0.28
0.15
0.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.93
0.12
1.00
0.10
0.11
0.39
0.59
0.48
0.03
0.00
0.35
0.03
0.83
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.03
0.60
0.19
0.77
0.46
0.00
0.47
0.31
0.23
0.55 0.88
0.50
0.00
0.39
0.18
0.50
0.51
0.74
0.64
0.39
0.00 0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.71
0.72
0.42
0.92
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.50
0.98
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.90
0.15
0.03
0.41
0.85
0.49
0.17
0.00
0.05
0.83
0.85
0.69
0.03
0.03
0.46
0.10
0.15
0.06
0.25
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Source: NMSA, 2005. Coefficient of Variability of seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Fig 9. Dependable rainfall (RF) at 50% probability Fig 10. Dependable RF at 50% probability for
Belg for Kiremt
1.4 Dry spell probability analysis: The dry spell probability analysis of the seasonal rainfall also
shows the following major characteristics:(i) For agricultural analysis, we have considered the
probability of the occurrences of ten consecutive days (dekad), which can bring significant agronomic
impact such as changes in sowing date of major crops, problem of moisture stress on crops any time
in between the growing period, (ii) Dry spell occurrences of at least ten days have a probability of
greater than 80% during the month of February over most parts of the country except over most parts
of southwestern Oromia, parts of SNNPR and central Oromia, (iii) Probabilities of dry spell occurrences
of at least ten days progressively decreases in the month of March and April over most parts of the
country, where as in the month of May there is a shift towards the western half of the country. During
the Kiremt season, the months of July and August exhibit the smallest probability of dry spell
occurrences of ten consecutive days, (iv) There is a high risk of planting failure in the month of
February over most parts of the country, excepting parts of SNNPR, where as the risk of planting
decreases greatly in the month of April, over most parts of the country.
For the Kiremt season, there is moderate risk of planting over the northeastern, northern and eastern
parts of the Meher growing areas during the month of June, where as this risk reduces during the
month of July over the eastern and the northern parts of the country. Thus mean seasonal rainfall
cannot be a sole indicator of the agricultural potential of a given season. Thus it may also be very
important to investigate the probability of the occurrence of dependable rainfall at 80% probability level.
Fig 4 to 7 presents both the mean rainfall and the dependable rainfall at 80% probability level to get a
clearer comparison.
1.5 Mean number of rainy days: Mean annual number of rainy days over the country based on data
analysis of 1971-2000, indicates that more than 175 rainy days is found over the south-west, where
this value progressively decreases both to the north and the East, where this value becomes less than
50 over parts of Afar and the region of southern Somali. Mean annual number of rainy days (rainy days
with greater than 0.1 mm of rainfall) over the Awash catchment reaches greater than 100 over the
western periphery of the upper catchment and this value varies from 75 to 100 over the middle
catchment and progressively decreases reaching as low as 25 to 50 days over the lower stage of the
river.
1.6 Mean annual and seasonal rainfall: Mean annual rainfall over the country (fig 8 and 9)based on
data analysis of 1971-2000 indicates that close to about 2000 mm of rainfall is exhibited over a small
Red=<200 mm
Yellow=200-500mm
Green = >500 mm
Red=<200 mm
Yellow=200-500
Green = 500-1000
Blue= >1000 mm
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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area in the highland areas of the southwestern parts of the country and more than 1000 mm of rainfall
is exhibited over southwestern margin of Tigray, most parts of western, central and southern
Amhara, most parts of Beneshangul region, parts of Gambela, western, central and eastern highlands
of Oromia excluding much of the Rift valley, western, central and northern parts of SNNPR
excluding parts of the Rift Valley. Mean annual rainfall of the Awash Catchment varies from about 1500
mm of rainfall over the western periphery of the upper catchment to about 750mm-1000mm over much
of the Middle Awash and this value decreases progressively over the lower part of Awash River Basin
reaching as small as 250 mm and even zero annual rainfall. Most of the areas with less than 750 mm
of annual rainfall are considered as drought prone areas of the country.
1.7 Dependable rainfall at 80% probability level: Rainfall variability in terms of the probability of a
certain amount of rainfall is also studied. If we consider the 500 mm of annual rainfall iso-line, most of
the crop cultivation areas are found inside this zone, where as areas having between 500 and 750 mm
of rainfall are found mostly over the drought vulnerable areas (approximately corresponding with 50 to
75 mean rainy days), which may require various types of intervention measures. Dry spell analysis is
the other important analytical tool to assess the risk of agricultural undertaking. This includes the
assessment of planting risk, the assessment of crop moisture stress due to the occurrence of dry
spells. For this analysis, we have considered probabilities of dry spell occurrences of ten consecutive
days. If we consider the 80% probability level as the dependable rainfall, then the 200 mm isoline
during the belg season is confined over the southern half of the country, where as the Kiremt season,
most parts of the western half of the country gets at least 500 mm of rainfall at 80% probability level.
Probability analysis indicates that it is only once in five years during the belg season that we get larger
or greater than 500 mm of rainfall. Thus a farmer, who may need about 300 to 400 mm of rainfall on a
Belg growing area, may succeed only in 20 to 45% of the years, over most parts. Dry spell
occurrences of at least ten days have a probability of greater than 80% during the month of February
over most parts of the country except over most parts of southwestern Oromia, parts of SNNPR and
central Oromia. Probabilities of dry spell occurrences of at least ten days progressively decreases in
the month of March and April over most parts of the country, where as in the month of May there is a
shift towards the western half of the country. During the Kiremt season, the months of July and August
exhibit the smallest probability of dry spell occurrences of ten consecutive days.
1.8 Risk in crop failure
There is a high risk of planting failure in the month of February over most parts of the country,
excepting parts of SNNPR, where as the risk of planting decreases greatly in the month of April, over
most parts of the country. For the Kiremt season, there is moderate risk of planting over the
northeastern, northern and eastern parts of the Meher growing areas during the month of June, where
as this risk reduces during the month of July over the eastern and the northern parts of the country.
Belg season is highly variable as compared with that of the Kiremt season. The exceptions are the low
variability (relatively higher reliability) areas in some parts of SNNPR. Coping mechanisms for such
rainfall variability must then be a function of the local conditions. Low variability of the rainfall in the
Kiremt season is observed over the highlands of southern Tigray, southern portion of Amhara, western
Oromia, and southern parts of Beneshangul region and western margin of Gambella. Low variability of
the annual rainfall is observed over parts of Tigray, highlands of southern, southwestern and over the
escarpments of eastern Amhara, parts of Bene-Shangul region and Gambella, highlands of western
and central Oromia and over highlands of SNNPR, where as medium to high values of variability
over the rest of the country.
1.9 Monitoring hydrological variability
The global climate change is caused mainly by the increased green house emissions that cause
increased temperature. As a result, there exists increasing temperature globally, which increases or
declines rainfall. The increase in temperature increases the volume of water lost through evaporation
from surface water; rivers, lakes, reservoirs and soil surfaces, and ground water to meet the
atmospheric water demand reducing available water in freshwater sources to be basic water needs
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such as drinking water, irrigation and hydropower generation, and water for environmental support. As
a result hydrological variability in streams, lakes, reservoirs and other freshwater systems in the
country are increasing and it is becoming a concern, and this means millions of people will have less
water available each day.
Ethiopia being at the tropic and having a long history of drought and famine, the impact of climate
change is likely to significant. Population growth and associated economic activities such as
agricultural intensification, land cover reduction in watersheds/river basins, and land and environmental
degradation are additional burden to hydrological variability. In general Ethiopias hydrological
variability has well established and recognized impacts such as recurrent droughts, environmental
degradation, acute food shortage, flooding, and shortage of water supply for domestic, municipal and
agricultural uses.
2. Monitoring Rainfall Variability
There are several instruments and tools used worldwide to monitor rainfall variability. These include:
(i) Palmer drought Index (PDI)
(ii) Percent of Normal (PoN)
(iii) Reclamation Drought Index (RDI)
(iv) Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
(v) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)*
2.1 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to monitor Rainfall Variability
The first quantitative measures of rainfall variability or drought have been developed in the United
States. Firstly, the complex water balance model developed by Palmer in the mid-twentieth century
(1965) was a turning point in the evolution of drought indices. It is calculated based on precipitation
and temperature data, as well as the local Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil. From the inputs,
all the basic terms of the water balance equation can be determined, including evapotranspiration, soil
recharge, runoff, and moisture loss from the surface layer. Human impacts on the water balance, such
as irrigation, are not considered. The Palmer is a soil moisture algorithm calibrated for relatively
homogeneous regions
2.2 Percent of Normal (PoN)
Percent of normal is easily misunderstood and gives different indications of conditions depending on
the location and season. It is one of the simplest measurements of rainfall for a location. Analyses
using the percent of normal are very effective when used for a single region or a single season. It is
calculated by dividing actual precipitation by normal precipitation typically considered to be a 30-year
mean and multiplying by 100%. This can be calculated for a variety of time scales. Usually these time
scales range from a single month to a group of months representing a particular season, to an annual
or water year. Normal precipitation for a specific location is considered to be 100%. One of the
disadvantages of using the percent of normal precipitation is that the mean, or average, precipitation is
often not the same as the median precipitation, which is the value exceeded by 50% of the
precipitation occurrences in a long-term climate record. The reason for this is that precipitation on
monthly or seasonal scales does not have a normal distribution.
2.3 Palmer Drought Index (PDI)
The first quantitative measures of rainfall variability or drought have been developed in the United
States. Firstly, the complex water balance model developed by Palmer in the mid-twentieth century
(1965) was a turning point in the evolution of drought indices. It is calculated based on precipitation
and temperature data, as well as the local Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil. From the inputs,
all the basic terms of the water balance equation can be determined, including evapotranspiration, soil
recharge, runoff, and moisture loss from the surface layer. Human impacts on the water balance, such
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as irrigation, are not considered. The Palmer is a soil moisture algorithm calibrated for relatively
homogeneous regions.
2.4 Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
Developed by Shafer and Dezman (1982) to complement the Palmer Index for moisture conditions.
The procedure to determine the SWSI for a particular basin is as follows: monthly data are collected
and summed for all the precipitation stations, reservoirs, and stream flow measuring stations over the
basin. Each summed component is normalized using a frequency analysis gathered from a long-term
data set. The probability of non-exceedencethe probability that subsequent sums of that component
will not be greater than the current sumis determined for each component based on the frequency
analysis. This allows comparisons of the probabilities to be made between the components. Each
component has a weight assigned to it depending on its typical contribution to the surface water within
that basin, and these weighted components are summed to determine a SWSI value representing the
entire basin.
Additional changes in the water management within a basin, such as flow diversions or new reservoirs,
mean that the entire SWSI algorithm for that basin needs to be redeveloped to account for changes in
the weight of each component. Thus, it is difficult to maintain a homogeneous time series of the index.
Extreme events also cause a problem if the events are beyond the historical time series, and the
usefulness of the index will need to be reevaluated (validate model) to include these events within the
frequency distribution of a basin component.
Several characteristics of the SWSI limit its application. Because the SWSI calculation is unique to
each basin or region, it is difficult to compare SWSI values between basins or regions. Within a
particular basin or region, discontinuing any station means that new stations need to be added to the
system and new frequency distributions need to be determined for that component.
2.5 Reclamation Drought Index (RDI)
Recently developed as a tool for defining drought severity and duration, and for predicting the onset
and end of periods of drought. The RDI differs from the SWSI in that it builds a temperature-based
demand component and duration into the index. The RDI is adaptable to each particular region and its
main strength is its ability to account for both climate and water supply factors. Like the SWSI, the RDI
is calculated at a river basin level, and it incorporates the supply components of precipitation, snow
pack, stream flow, and reservoir levels. The RDI values and severity designations are similar to the
SPI, PDSI, and SWSI.
3. Monitoring Drought in Ethiopia
Drought is a household term and synonymous. It has remained as a major challenge to the countrys
development programs, and specifically to food security efforts at national level. In the second five year
National Development Plan known as Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End
Poverty (PASDEP), water sector development, monitoring and copping with drought using available
water resources has been a priority strategy in the successful implementation of the five year national
development program in Ethiopia.
The lack of appropriate drought monitoring instrument has always been an obstacle to any meaningful
strategy development to cope with the most prevailing droughts in Ethiopia. Drought Accounting in
most developed countries is a key means of optimizing water appropriation across economic sectors
based on their relative advantages in the national food security and sustainable development needs.
Many quantitative indicators of drought indices have been developed worldwide and have been in use
based on the sector and location affecting the particular application, and the degree of understanding
of the phenomena.
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All rainfall variability monitoring instruments defined and discussed earlier indicators listed above in
table 4 are developed to monitor drought, and they use a wide range of parameters. But SPI uses only
one data variable, or requiring only precipitation as determinant variable. This data variable is widely
available and accessible for the development of the indicator in many parts Ethiopia. This makes SPI is
a simple (less data intensive) tool for monitoring rainfall variability, drought and its impact on various
time scales across wide-ranging key economic sectors (agriculture, energy, environment, etc.).
In many developed countries such as USA, SPI is used as an objective/standard/generic monitoring
tool/indicator for agricultural production. It is widely used by Colorado Climate Center, the Western
Regional Climate Center, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. SPI monitor current states of
drought. SPI has also a promise to serve the same purpose in the face of the changing climate
following increasing temperatures, heat waves, evapo-transpiration and associated water deficit. A full
detail and standardized indicator definition is presented in table 5 below.
3.1 SPI and Drought monitoring capability
A drought event is defined as a period when the SPI is continuously negative and reaches an
intensity of 1.0 or less. On the other side of the scale, drought would end only when a positive value
occurs.
In computing SPI (dimensionless), past rainfall data are used to determine the probability distribution of
the monthly and seasonal (the past 2 months, 3 months, etc., up to 48 months) observed precipitation
totals, and then the probabilities are normalized using the inverse normal (Gaussian) function. The SPI
methodology allows expression of droughts (and wet spells) in terms of precipitation deficit, percent of
normal, and probability of non-exceedance.
Conceptually, the SPI represents a z-score, or the number of standard deviations by which an event is
far above or below the mean, where negative values indicate drought; positive values representing wet
conditions, while the standardized SPI will have a normal distribution with an expected mean value of
zero and a variance of one. Requiring an index to have a fixed/standard expected/mean value and
variance is desirable in order to make comparisons of index values among different stations and
regions meaningful. The spatial and temporal dimensions of drought create problems in generating a
drought index because, not only must an anomaly be normalized with respect to location, but the
anomaly must also be normalized in time if it is to produce a meaningful estimate of drought-the SPI
accomplishes both.
2.1.3 Merits of SPI
(i) It has Policy Relevance. For instance at time of drought, or flood, it provides information for policy
options.
Helpful in making decision as to whether subsidy or tax cut or holiday is desired
Whether farmers pay more taxes during good rain years in compensation for the tax
Holiday provision during drought years?
Should farmers borrow fertilizer during the drought years and settle the account the same
season, even if crop fails or could the payment stagger?
Which crop/s capture/s governments interest during drought years?
Which agricultural region should receive highest fund during drought period
Persistent negative values triggers a wakeup call to policy makers to launch craft National
Drought Policy (NDP) document
(ii) It has computational rigor/strength
The main advantage of the SPI is that it can be calculated at different time scales. This is very
important because the time scale over which precipitation deficits accumulate functionally
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separates different types of drought and, therefore, allows to quantify the natural lags between
precipitation and other water usable sources such as the river discharge and the reservoir
storages
SPI values are directly computed and not a derivative and the resulting index measures a
deviation of water level from the normal which also speaks to crops productivity indirectly.
SPI is least data intensive and cost-effective tool.
It is accepted that the different time scales of SPI are useful to monitor the different usable
water resources. For example robust relationships can be found analyzing the role of the time
scales of SPI on the river discharge, reservoir storage and ground water. In case of river
discharge higher correlations can be found with continuous series of SPI at shorter time scales
between 1 and 3 months though differs from place to place depending on different basin
characteristics like size, shape, slope, climate and land cover. The response of the river
discharges to longer time scales of SPI is very low. On the other hand, the time scales of SPI,
which are useful to analyze droughts in reservoir storages, are longer than for river discharge.
Higher correlations between standardized data of reservoir storage and SPI can be found at
longer time scales like 10 months.
(iii) Measurability
Rainfall is the only measured/observed data required for the development of the indicator, SPI.
Rainfall measuring instruments are cheapest (plastic rain-gauges are now a day being used). The
existing distribution of the rain gauges cover a large part of the country meets WMO standards in
many of the river basins.
(iv) Availability of long term data
There exists rich data in the country with reasonable quality for use in the development of SPI.
(v) Easiness for interpretation
SPI is a straight forward a measure of drought intensity, magnitude and duration or historical
data based probability emerging from a specific drought (eg; if computed over short time, the
index serves for agricultural and meteorological drought monitoring or the longer time for the
hydrological drought monitoring. The longer the rainfall series, the more likely one gets better
results.
SPI provides a single quantitative drought index, which is a reflection of the cumulative effects
of a prolonged and abnormal moisture deficiency, irrespective of any development planning
unit (basin, land or river).
SPI captures water variability (from rainwater and surface/river water) over any time resolution
for computation (including Daily and Dekadal) and therefore very useful for operational
decisions, like monitoring drought for possible corrective measures in water supply and demand
balance.
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Annex E
SPI for monitoring Drought in Ethiopia
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SPI for monitoring Drought in Ethiopia
1. Introduction
Drought is understood as a precipitation deficiency resulting from an abnormal or unusual weather
patterns. A deficit of precipitation impacts many aspects of the natural environments; soil moisture,
stream flow, reservoir storage, and ground water levels, etc. It results on different time scales.
Figure 1 below presents rainfall/climate variability and the sequential developments of drought
scenarios/situations; (i) deficit of the precipitation, (ii) reduced runoff, (iii) soil moisture deficiency and
plant water stress, and (iv) reduce stream flow. These situations could occur once or at different time
periods.
Figure 1 Climate variability and sequence of drought developments (Source: National Drought Mitigation Center,
USGS)
McKee et al. (1993) developed the SPI to quantify precipitation deficits on multiple time scales. The
prevalence of drought at different and multiple time scales, the level of impacts are also varying. For
instance if the precipitation deficit caused by the weather pattern lasts a short time say a couple of
weeks or one month, the drought is considered as short term drought. If the weather or atmospheric
circulation pattern that provides rainfall to the country become entrenched and the precipitation deficits
lasts longer say several months to several years, the drought is considered as long-term drought. Both
of these types of drought prevail in Ethiopia.
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is a way of measuring the severity of drought in an area in a given
time period. It is developed and used first in the mid-west of the United States where drought and crop
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failure prevails and its impacts have been considerable and significant. Other quantitative measures of
drought such as Palmer Drought Index (PDI) have been developed and used again in the United
States.
Through the relentless effort by many experts, SPI is now considered as one of the indices that are
found useful for describing the many scales of drought. The advantage considered as useful for its use
in Ethiopia is that SPI require only one type of data observation, the precipitation (rainfall), which is
available for many of the sites most affected by rainfall variability and drought.
Bussay et al. (1998), Szalai and Szinell (2000) assessed the utility of the SPI for describing drought in
Hungary. They concluded that the SPI was suitable for quantifying most types of drought event.
Stream flow was described best by SPIs with time scales of 26 months. Strong relationships to
ground water level were also found at time scales of 524 months. Agricultural drought (proxied by soil
moisture content) was replicated best by the SPI on a scale of 2 to 3 months. Lana et al. (2001)
recently used the SPI to investigate patterns of rainfall over Catalonia, Spain. Recently China has also
started to use SPI for monitoring drought (WMO, 2006). The authority that monitors the development of
drought in China is the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) of the China Meteorological Administration
(CMA). BCC used SPI to monitor drought since 1995 on a ten day basis, and the result provides
accurate and reliable information on drought.
As part of the GIRWI second phase study, SPI has been identified as a potential indicator for
monitoring drought in Ethiopia. The increasing emphasis on drought monitoring is largely as a result of
Ethiopias long history of drought and its associate socio economic impacts. Ethiopias economy is very
well found to be sensitive to its hydrological variability, i.e. rainfall variability. The correlation between
rainfall variability and the Ethiopian economy (GDP) is very strong and highly significant (WB, 2006).
A considerable progress has been made in testing SPI use in Ethiopia, and the results of the study are
presented in this section of the report.
2. Study Methodology
2.1 Study Areas
A long time series data of precipitation for well known drought areas and non drought areas in Ethiopia
are gathered. The sites put under SPI assessment include Addaa Woreda in Oromia Regional State
and Komblcha wereda in Amhara Regional State.
The SPI is simply the transformation of the precipitation time series into a standardized normal
distribution (z-distribution).Time series of SPI values were processed by using the SPI software for
three periods that is for a one month, three months and six months (the long-term conditions). The
importance of considering the three months period will allow us to fall on the main cropping season.
The six months will provide information on long term conditions.
Crop yield data collected from the different woredas will be assessed for its relation with different time
scales of SPI. Though SPI is directly related to availability of soil moisture, significant relation can be
obtained between SPI and yield as soil moisture is one of the most important limiting factors of plant
production.
The most important item of investigation regarding the use of SPI would clearly be which time scale to
use, for different areas, which can depend on the length of the crop growing period, if we are interested
in agricultural monitoring. In the case of hydrological monitoring larger time scale may be necessary to
capture the hydrological variability over a given area.
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2.2 Calculation of SPI:
The calculation of SPI follows the following procedures. The monthly precipitation time series
are modeled using gamma distribution, whose probability density function is defined as
----------- 1
Whereas:
> 0 is a shape parameter,
> 0 is a scale parameter, and x > 0 is the amount of precipitation.
is the gamma function, which is defined as:
------------------ 2
Fitting the distribution to the data requires and to be estimated. Edwards & McKee (1997) suggest
estimating these parameters using the approximation of Thom (1958) for maximum likelihood is as
follows:
Whereas:
For n observations
Integrating the probability density function with respect to x and inserting the estimates of and
yields an expression for the cumulative probability G(x) of an observed amount of precipitation
occurring for a given month and time scale:
Substituting t for x/ reduces Equation (11) to
which is the incomplete gamma function. Values of the incomplete gamma function are computed using
an algorithm taken from Press et al. (1986). Since the gamma distribution is undefined for x = 0, and q
= P(x = 0) > 0, where P(x = 0) is the probability of zero precipitation, the cumulative probability
becomes
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Whereas:
The cumulative probability distribution is then transformed into the standard normal distribution to
yield the SPI. This process is illustrated in Figure 1.
Figure 2: Equi-probability transformation from a fitted gamma distribution to the standard normal
distribution. Data are for the 3 month (DJF) average precipitation over the southeast of England. (After
Edwards and McKee (1997))
The first panel shows the empirical cumulative probability distribution for a 3 month average
DecemberJanuaryFebruary (DJF) of precipitation over the south east of England for the period
190199. As shown in figure 2, the over-plotted is the theoretical cumulative probability distribution of
the fitted gamma distribution.
The second panel displays a graph of standard normal cumulative probability. To convert a given
precipitation level, say 77 mm, to its corresponding SPI value, first locate 77 mm on the abscissa of the
left-hand panel, draw a perpendicular, and locate the point of intersection with the theoretical
distribution. Then project this point horizontally (maintaining equal cumulative probability) until it
intersects with the graph of standard normal cumulative probability. The intersection between a line
drawn vertically downward from this point and the abscissa determines the SPI value (1.1 in this
example).
Here we have presented the three month SPI of Feb-May for the Belg season, the two month SPI of
July to August and the five month SPI ending at September for the application of SPI for agricultural
monitoring after testing different time scales.
In the analysis of the results of this study in the next section, the study will explore possible methods of
maximizing the link between SPI and agricultural crop production by testing different time scales of
months of SPI for the area. The major conclusion here can be to figure out the start of the time scale
with the planting time and the end of the time scale to be either the flowering stage especially for short
cycle crops or the maturity stage for the case of long cycle crops.
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3. Results of the SPI test
7.3 SPI Time Series Data as observed in different sites and selected SPI periods
3.1.1 Adaa Woreda
SPI values for Adaa Woreda have been computed for 15 stations across the study area for different
time scales of 3, 6, 9, and 12-month scales, covering 1975-2006. Figure 1 to 12 present calculated
time series values of SPI at the different sites of interest SPI calculated at time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9 and
12-month, for Aleltu, Debreziet, Akaki, Mojo, Meki, Dirtu Liben, Adama, Zeway and Zequala stations in
Adda Woreda and two other woredas one in centeral and the other in northern Ethiopia, Fitch and
Kombolcha, respectively.
Debreziet
Fig 3 captures the extreme drought events on 3-month time scale for Debrezeit from 1956 with an
intensity of -2.36 in September which indicate poor performance of rainfall during July-August-
September, a season known to be the main rainy season( (kiremt) in most parts of Ethiopia. Another
two extreme drought episodes at the start of growing season during June 1962 (April-May-June) and
May1973 (March-April-May) were also captured concurring the observed reduced soil moisture of the
respective months the year. In addition to the above mentioned periods, April 1984 (February-March-
April) was also noted to be one of those periods of extreme drought
Fig 3: Three months SPI series for Debre Zeit weather station (database: 1956-2007)
Fig 4: Six months SPI series for Debre Zeit weather station (database: 1956-2007)
4
2
0
2
4
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
SPI3
4
2
0
2
4
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
SPI6
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3.1.2 Fitche Woreda
Fig 5 below shows the SPI3 based drought patterns at Fiche with extreme drought in April 1984 of
intensity -3.19, that was the worst ever recorded in the whole time series of the station. Total Kiremt
season rain (June-July-August-September) for 1984 was recorded to be 639mm while the long term
annual average was 824mm. Two important extreme drought events could also be noted in 1971 in the
months of August and September which is an indication of failure of Kiremt rains in that year. Drought
event in April and May 1999 was one of the most extreme ones that happened at the start of Kiremt
season. It is also important to compare the 3-month SPI of the same station with longer time scales. It
is worth noting that a relatively normal or below normal 3-month rain period could be experienced , but
not visible from a longer-term SPI, like SPI for the 12 months time scale.
Fig 5: Thee months SPI series for Fiche weather station (database: 1968-2008)
Fig 6: Six months SPI series for Fiche Station (database: 1968-2008).
4
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1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
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Fig 7: Nine months SPI series for Debre Zeit weather station (database: 1956-2007)
Fig 6: Nine months SPI series for Fiche weather station (database: 1968-2008)
Fig 8 Twelve months SPI for Debre Zeit Weather station
Results below characterizes the 12 months SPI for the respective study areas (Debrezeit and Fiche).
For example at the time scale of 12 months, only seven important dry periods were captured where the
decade of 1950, 1970 and 1980 were the driest ones for Debrezeit. The SPI12 points out 4 extreme
drought and 3 extreme wet events from the whole time series. First, extreme drought started towards
the end of 1951, lasting almost over 4 years. Further, SPI12 turned positive in September, 1955
(0.07)). This event was followed by another dry period in 1956 which lasted for one year with SPI12
evaluated to be positive in August 1957. Another drought event occurred during 1973 that lasted for 12
months until May 1974, after which SPI turned positive in June. Annual precipitation in 1973 was
661mm with about 24% less than the long term annual average precipitation of 878.8mm. National
Meteorology Agency has also reported drought conditions for most parts of Ethiopia for the same year.
4
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1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
SPI9
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1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
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1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
SPI12
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Despite, it was not extremely severe, moderate drought was also set in during May 2002 that lasted for
14 months until June 2003.This period (2002/2003) was also reportedly a drought year (NMA, ??).
Fiche: Drought event pointed out by SPI12 in 1984 was the most extreme one with intensity of -
3.73.This drought event persisted for 43 months from August 1983 until February 1987, which was
longest period of precipitation deficit in last century. The impact of the drought in 1984 is still fresh in
the memories of many Ethiopians. The total annual precipitation during 1984 was only 749mm (35.8%
less than long year mean) while the long year average annual precipitation for Fiche calculated from
the 40 years of data is 1167mm. There were also droughts in years 1971, 1978, 1981 and 1988. At the
time scale of 12 months only four important dry periods of extreme intensity are recognized on the
decades of 1970s and 1980s while a single and extreme drought of the 1984 at the time scale of 24
months was captured. On the contrary, more than seven extreme drought events occurred on 3
months time scale with a maximum intensity of -3.19 in 1984. In the same way as Debreziet station,
average duration of the dry periods change noticeably as a function of the time scales. For example,
12 months time scale was found to have average duration of 12.6 months while time scale of 3 months
SPI showed a lower average duration of 3.9 months.
Fig 9: SPI 12 for Fiche
At the scale of 24 months, no dry event of extreme intensity noted after 1950s and there were about 4
significant dry events where 2 of them were with moderate and the other 2 with severe intensity. The
average duration of the dry periods (SPI<0) change noticeably as a function of the time scales. At the
time scale of 3 months the average duration is 4.3 months and at the time scale of 12 months the
mean duration increases and become 16.2 months. To identify the main dry periods it is necessary to
analyze the time scales larger than 6 months because the high frequency of SPI values at the shorter
time scales hide the most important dry periods.
Following these dry events significant wet events occurred in the years from 1964 to 1968. The
extremely wet event that had started during 1964 lasted for the subsequent 4 years until SPI value was
negative during the beginning of 1969. Yearly precipitation amounts in 1964 to 1968 were 1302.80mm,
1022.20mm, 1436.00mm, 1205.7mm and 1003.1mm respectively.
4
2
0
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4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
SPI12
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Fig 10: SPI 24 for Debrezeit weather station
Fig 11: SPI 12 for Fiche weather station
The most striking characteristic of the drought is the change in drought frequency as the time scale
changes (shown in Figure xx). On longer time scales, drought becomes less frequent but lasts longer.
At the 3-month scale, drought frequency increases but its duration decreases. In other words, on
shorter time scales, drought becomes more frequent but lasts for shorter periods. Another interesting
point shown by 3-month SPI is that the SPI responds quickly to wet and dry periods, which means that
each new month has a large influence on the period sum of precipitation. This also means more
droughts of shorter duration.
3.1.3 Kombolcha Woreda
.
Kombolch is a city located approximately 375 km north of Addis Ababa and on the well known drought
areas in the country. A tong term data observed at the meteorological station in the town is used for
computing SPI.
The SPI values were processed at a one, three and six months scale and the values observed are
presented in graphs as shown below. Just to show how the time series of computed values of the SPI
behave, we can consider here the month of April and also SPI for Feb-April for the Belg season
assessment. It is important to note here that the month of April is an important agriculturally both for
Belg and Meher crops.
4
2
0
2
4
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
SPI24
4
2
0
2
4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
SPI24
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Figure 12 One month (April) time scale at Kombolcha
Figure 13 Three month (February-April) time scale at kombolcha
Figure 14 Three month (July - August) time scale at kombolcha
Both figures presented above identify the worst drought occurrences during the Belg season. These
include the years 1973 (called the Wello drought) and 1999 followed by 1971, 1984, 1954 and 1959.
Regarding the Kiremt season, we can consider the 2 month July-August SPI for the area.
Here the 1984 drought clearly stands out, with maximum severity, where the impact has been reported
to be of biblical proportions. Here it is important to note that the SPI for Feb-Apr 1984 was also
characterized with severe drought. The 1984 severe drought is followed by 1987, 1982, 1983, 1976,
1972, 1991 and 1992.
-4
-3
-2
-1
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Fig 15 and 16 presents the drought severity index in 1984 for several sites in Ethiopia as SPI is
observed over 6 and 12 months period. In fig 15, the sites with green colors show extreme wet period,
while the bright red shows extreme drought. The blue shows mild drought and this is observed in
slightly over 50 % of the sites data is observed and tested. Most of these areas are the western side of
central and southern regions. North and south easterly sites, for instance Mekele, Kombolch and Gode
areas, the drought observed in 1984 was extreme. In Jijiga and Jinka drought in 1984 while in Gondar
and Zewai it was mild. The 1984 was the year well known for its the worst drought with sever socio
economic impact.
Figure 15 6-month SPI values over selected stations over Ethiopia during 1984 E.C.
A similar SPI study in 1984 on a 12 months period was studied for the same sites as in fig 15 and the
drought severity index is presented in fig 16. The number of sites with extreme drought has increased
from 3 to 9 sites. More sever drought areas were observed as the SPI is observed over a longer period
of observation in the year, in this case the whole 12 months period.
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Figure 16: 12-months SPI values over selected stations over Ethiopia during 1984 E.C.
3.2 SPI and Agricultural yield
The most important item of investigation regarding the use of SPI would clearly be which time scale to
use, for different areas, which can depend on the length of the crop growing period, if we are interested
in agricultural monitoring. In the case of hydrological monitoring larger time scale may be necessary to
capture the hydrological variability over a given area.
Here we have presented the three month SPI of Feb-May for the Belg season, the two month SPI of
July to August and the five month SPI ending at September for the application of SPI for agricultural
monitoring after testing different time scales.
In the next chapter we will explore possible methods of the maximization of the link between SPI and
agricultural crop production by testing different time scales of months of SPI for the area. The major
conclusion here can be to figure out the start of the time scale with the planting time and the end of the
time scale to be either the flowering stage especially for short cycle crops or the maturity stage for the
case of long cycle crops.
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Here we have used two crops Maize and Sorghum and a secondary data of WRSI both for the Belg
and Meher crops for the area.
The following table shows the two months SPI of July-Agust for kombolcha and the WRSI of Maize
Meher crop (divided by 100) for the Kalu area. The correlation coefficient is about 0.6. The 2002 crop
yield reduction has been captured to a certain extent.
This linkage between the SPI and the WRSI improves if we consider the 5 months SPI of May to
September in the following table, with an improved correlation value of 0.74.
Figure 16 Two month SPI (July August) and WRSI (divided by 100) for Meher Crop at kombolcha
Figure 17 Six month SPI (May to September) and WRSI (divided by 100) for Meher Crop at
kombolcha
This result is better understood using the linkage between the yield reduction and the 5 months SPI as
in the following graph.
Year SPI5 WRSIMeher
1995 -0.05 0.84
1996 -0.04 0.87
1997 -0.43 0.82
1998 0.67 1
1999 0.38 1
2000 0.77 0.91
2001 0.2 0.87
2002 -0.47 0.55
2003 -0.38 0.88
2004 -0.73 0.71
2005 0.39 0.89
Year SPI2
WRSI
Meher
1995 0.11 0.84
1996 -0.1 0.87
1997 -0.22 0.82
1998 1.1 1
1999 0.97 1
2000 0.89 0.91
2001 0.34 0.87
2002 0.04 0.55
2003 -0.31 0.88
2004 -0.3 0.71
2005 0 88 0 89
2 months spi of July-August and WRSI(divided by 100) o Meher crop at Kombolcha
-0.4
-0.2
0
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1
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SPI2
WRSIMeher
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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
SPI5
WRSIMeher
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Figure 18 Five month SPI at September) and WRSI (divided by 100) for Meher Crop at kombolcha
The investigation of using 5 months SPI, ending at September for using it as a forecast tool for the
estimation of yield reduction gives the following scattered diagram. Except for one outlier the rest can
be estimated using the 5 months SPI.
Figure 15 Yield reduction and five month SPI for Meher Maze Crop at September
The results of the study shows that the SPI clearly identified the major drought years of the area, and
can also be used to identify the severity of the droughts that occurred periodically over the area.
Yield reduction and 5 months SPI at September at Kombolcha
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
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1
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
SPI5
Yield red
y = 0.1905x - 0.1563
R
2
= 0.5486
-0.5
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-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
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5 month SPI
Y
i
e
l
d
r
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
Yield red
Linear (Yield red)
Linear (Yield red)
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8 Conclusion and Recommendation
SPI with an adjustment of time scale, based on the crop calendar of a given area can be calibrated to
estimate agricultural production for a given area. Based on this limited study, SPI is found suitable for
quantifying most types of drought event in Ethiopia. More and specialized study is needed to
investigate the full range of opportunities available to use SPI for monitoring drought and its related
impact on crop production.
References
WMO. 2006. Drought monitoring activities: Case studies. Edited in Drought monitoring and early
warning: concepts, progress and future challenges.
WMO, Weather and climate information for sustainable agriculture development.
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Annex F
A simplified Model for a River Basin
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Annex F: PHYSICAL WATER RESOURCES ACCOUNTING
1. Introduction
The material presented here for physical water resources accounting is an adapted version of the
Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting for Water Resources (SEEAW)
prepared by UN Statistics Division in close cooperation with the London Group on Environmental
Accounting. It provides a systematic framework for the organization of water resources information
in a River Basin as found appropriate to Ethiopian condition, and studies the interactions between
the economy and the environment. The monitoring system does the physical accounting by
separately identifying information related to water resources in the conventional accounts and
linking physical information on water with economic accounts. It is presented here to link the
economic information with hydrological information in order to provide the users with a tool for
integrated analysis of the available freshwater resources with the user system (economy).
The physical water accounting has two components (i) Inland water resources system, and (ii) the
Economy (UN, 2006). The inland water resources system includes the surface water
resources (rivers, lakes, artificial reservoirs and river reaches which include wetlands), ground
water resources and soil water resources. The economy consists of the user system, which
abstracts water for production and consumption purposes and put in place the infrastructures to
store, treat and distribute water. The River Basin model figure 1 above presents a simplified
diagram of all the essential elements of the water resources that can provide and portray clearly
the data on the two components for the physical water resources accounting in a river basin.
The purpose of this chapter is, therefore, to describe the accounting framework for water resource
in relation to the economy (user system) in a River Basin.
2. Inland Water Resource System and User System (the economy)
2.1 The inland water resource system
The inland water resource system in a River Basin is complex as shown in the model (figure 1).
The inland water resource system includes precipitation, soil moisture and runoff which produce
river and stream flows, lakes, reservoir, wetlands, and ground water resources. Water is in
continuous movement: because of solar radiation and gravity water keeps moving from lands and
oceans into the atmosphere in the form of vapor (evapotranspiration) falling back again on land
and oceans through precipitation. Therefore, the inland water resource system is composed of: (a)
all inland water resources from which water is or can be abstracted (i.e. rivers, lakes, artificial
reservoirs, snow, ice, glaciers, groundwater and soil water); (b) water exchanges between water
resources within the territory of reference (e.g. infiltration, runoff, percolation etc.); and (c) water
exchanges with water resources of other territories (i.e. inflows, outflows). Exchanges of water
between the water resources are referred to as natural transfers.
The water resources considered in the inland water resource system are rivers, lakes, artificial
reservoirs, snow, ice, glaciers, groundwater and soil-water within the area of reference. These
resources form the water asset classification. The main natural inputs of water for these resources
are precipitation and from other resources within the river basin. The main natural flows that
decrease the stocks of water are evapotranspiration, outflows to other river basin in the case of
Trans Boundary Rivers. Human activities decrease and increase the water stocks through
abstraction and returns.
The asset accounts module of the SEEAW describes the inland water resource system in terms of
stocks and flows: it provides information on the stocks of water resources at the beginning and end
of the accounting period and changes therein. These changes are described in terms of flows
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brought about by the economy and by natural processes. Asset accounts can be thought of as a
description in accounting terms of the hydrological water balance.
2.2 The users system the economy
The user system or the economy include agriculture (livestock water, fishing and forestry), energy
generation, industries (manufacturing, water treatment and distribution, waste water treatment,
etc.) domestic or municipal water supply. The economy uses water in different ways. It can
physically remove water from the environment for production and consumption activities or use
water without physically removing it from the environment. In the first case, the economy abstracts
water from the inland freshwater bodies surface water (rivers, lakes, reservoirs, wetland areas,
etc.) and ground water (soil water, ground water, etc.) system, uses the precipitation directly at site
(in-situ) through rain-fed agriculture or water harvesting, and uses water for hydroelectric power
generation. While in the second case the economy uses water for supporting the ecosystem,
recreational and navigational purposes, fishing and other uses, which rely on the physical
presence of water (in-situ uses) and, often, also on the quality of water. Even though these uses
may have a negative impact on the quality of the water bodies, they are not directly considered in
water resource accounting as they do not involve a displacement of water. However, in defining
the sustainable water use for a given river basin, considerations are made so as to guarantee the
availability of water for these and other uses.
In addition to abstracting water, the economy returns water into the environment. The model Figure
1 shows the different return flows to the inland water system and then to and as trans-boundary
water. return flows (see figure 1) are base flow, spillage, drainage and seepage and deep
percolation from the economy. Usually return flows have a negative impact on the environment in
terms of quality, as the quality of this water is often lower than that of abstracted water due to high
level of salinity, high level chemicals used for agricultural purposes. Although returns to the water
resource system alter the quality of the receiving body, they represent an input in the water system
as returned water becomes then available for other uses.
The focus of water accounting is on the interactions between water resources and the economy
where the economy is thought of as the system which abstracts water for consumption and
production activities, and puts in place the infrastructure to mobilize, store, treat, distribute and
return water into the environment.
The economy is expanded to show the main economic agents related to water. In particular, the
following are identified:
The industry primarily involved in the collection, treatment and supply of water to
households, industries, etc.
The industry primarily involved in the collection, treatment and discharge of sewage;
other industries which use water as an input in their production processes;
Households which use water to satisfy their needs or wants.
Sources of water for the whole economy include: inland water resources in the environment of a
given river basin, precipitation which is either collected or used directly (e.g. rain-fed agriculture).
Once water enters the economy, it is used, returned back to the environment (to inland water
resources) or supplied to other economies (shared or Trans Boundary Water). In addition, during
use or transportation water can be lost through leakages or processes of evaporation and evapo-
transpiration.
Moreover, the inland water resources system and the economy in a river basin can exchange
water with those of other river basins which makes the physical water resources accounting more
complex. This exercise assumes those two systems in a river basin are without water exports or
import into or out of the river basin.
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Each economic unit either abstracts water directly from the environment or receives it from other
industries within the river basin. Once water is used, it can either be discharged directly into the
environment, be supplied to other industries for further use (reused water), or be supplied to a
treatment facility Sewerage.
During water use in the economy, some water may be retained in the products produced by the
industry or evapo-transpired during use by the industrial activities say irrigation. In these cases,
water is considered consumed by the industry. The term consumption refers to the quantity of
water which after use is not returned back to the environment (inland water system).
3 Physical Water Resources Accounting in a River Basin
A sample physical accounting chart (table) indicating (i) the inland water resources system and (ii)
the users system (economy) is presented and discussed in the following section.
Standard terminology or definitions for use in physical supply and use tables (table 1 below) for
water accounting is adapted from UN Statistical Division publication (SEEAW, 2006)
Long-term annual average: Arithmetic average of over at least 20 consecutive years of
observation.
Precipitation: Total volume of atmospheric wet precipitation (rain, snow, hail, dew, etc.) falling on
the territory of the country over one year, in millions of cubic meters (millions m
3
).
Actual evapo-transpiration: Total actual volume of evaporation from the ground, wetlands and
natural water bodies and transpiration of plants. The 'actual evapo-transpiration' is calculated using
different types of mathematical models, ranging from very simple algorithms to schemes that
represent the hydrological cycle in detail.
Internal flow Total volume of river run-off and groundwater generated, in natural conditions,
exclusively by precipitation into a river basin. The internal flow is equal to precipitation less actual
evapotranspiration and can be calculated or measured. If the river run-off and groundwater
generation are measured separately, transfers between surface and groundwater should be netted
out to avoid double counting.
Actual external inflow of surface and ground waters: Total volume of actual flow of rivers and
groundwater, coming from neighboring countries. This is assumed negligible in Ethiopia.
Total renewable fresh water resources: = Internal flow + Actual external inflow of surface and
ground waters
Outflow of surface and ground waters from a river basin: These are actual amount of outflow
of rivers and groundwater into neighboring countries Trans-boundary waters.
Renewable groundwater available for annual abstraction: Recharge less the long term annual
average rate of flow required to achieve ecological quality objectives for associated surface water.
It takes account of the ecological restrictions imposed to groundwater exploitability; other
restrictions based on economic and technical criteria could also be taken into account in terms of
accessibility, productivity and maximum production cost deemed acceptable by developers. The
theoretical maximum of groundwater available is the recharge.
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Fresh surface water: Water which flows over, or rests on the surface of a land mass, natural
water courses such as rivers, streams, brooks, lakes, etc., as well as artificial watercourses such
as irrigation, industrial and navigation canals, drainage systems and artificial reservoirs. Water
abstracted through bank filtration is included under fresh surface water. Sea-water, and transitional
waters, such as brackish swamps, lagoons and estuarine areas are considered non-fresh water
and are not included here.
Fresh ground water Water which is being held in, and can usually be recovered from, or via, an
underground formation. All permanent and temporary deposits of water, both artificially charged
and naturally occurring in the subsoil, of sufficient quality for at least seasonal use are included.
This category includes phreatic water-bearing strata, as well as deep strata under pressure or not,
contained in porous or fractured soils. Ground water includes springs, both concentrated and
diffused, which may be subaqueous.
Total water abstraction Water removed from any source, either permanently or temporarily,
during a specified period of time. Mine water and drainage water are included. Water abstractions
from ground water resources in any given time period are defined as the difference between the
total amount of water withdrawn from aquifers and the total amount charged artificially or injected
into aquifers. The amounts of water artificially charged or injected are attributed to abstractions
from that water resource from which they were originally withdrawn. Water used for hydroelectricity
generation is an in-situ use and should be excluded.
Total gross fresh water abstraction: Total of fresh surface water and fresh groundwater
abstractions over one year within the river basin.
Water returned without use (return flows): Water abstracted from any fresh water source and
discharged into fresh waters without use, or before use.
Reused water is defined as wastewater supplied to a user system for further use with or without
prior treatment, excludes recycling within industrial sites. It is also commonly referred to as
reclaimed wastewater. It is important to record this flow as the reuse of water can alleviate the
pressure on water resources in a river basin by reducing direct abstraction of water: for example,
watering landscaping and environmental support, etc.
The total water supply of an industry is computed as the sum of the amount of water supplied to
other economic units (row S1 in Table 1) and the amount of water returned to the environment
(row S2 in Table 1 below).
Water consumption: The concept of water consumption is a bit complex. It is the amount of water
that is lost by the economy during use in the sense that it has entered the economy but it has not
returned to water resources in the river basin. This happens because during use part of the water
is incorporated into products, evaporated, transpired by plants or simply consumed by households
or livestock. The difference between the water use (row U in Table 1) and the water supply (row S
in Table 1) is referred to as water consumption. It can be computed for each economic unit and for
the whole economy.
For the whole economy, the balance between water flows can be written as shown in table below.
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Table 1 Standard physical supply and use table for Water Resources Accounting
Industries
Total
R
a
i
n
f
e
d
A
g
r
i
c
u
l
t
u
r
e
I
r
r
i
g
a
t
i
o
n
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
g
e
n
e
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
i
n
g
M
u
n
i
c
i
p
a
l
/
H
H
S
e
w
e
r
a
g
e
T
o
t
a
l
From the
Environment
1 Total abstraction
(=a.1+a.2=b.1+b.2)
a.1 Abstraction for own use
Irrigation
Electric power generation
Others (specify)
a.2 Abstraction for distribution
b.1 Abstraction From water resources
Surface Water
Ground water
Soil water
b.2 From other sources
Collection of precipitation
Within the
Economy
2 Use of water received from other
economic units
3. Total use of water = 1 + 2
Industries
R
a
i
n
f
e
d
A
g
r
i
c
u
l
t
u
r
e
I
r
r
i
g
a
t
i
o
n
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
g
e
n
e
r
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
i
n
g
M
u
n
i
c
i
p
a
l
/
H
H
w
a
t
e
r
S
e
w
e
r
a
g
e
T
o
t
a
l
Within the
Economy
4 Supply of Water to other economic units
of which: Reused water
Waste water to sewage
To the
Environment
5 Total returns (=d.1+d.2)
Electric power generation
Irrigation water
Losses in distribution due to leakage
Treated waste water
Others (specify0
d1 To water resources
Surface Water
Ground water
Soil water
d2 To other sources (e.g. sea water) NA
6. Total supply of water = 4 + 5
7. Consumption = 3 + 6
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Inventory of water asset accounts based on mapping of water demand sites in a River
Basin
The water asset accounts could be developed based on mapping and inventory of water demand sites by
different economies such as municipal water supply, manufacturing industry, irrigation sites based on data
from licenses for water rights. Figure 2 and table 2 presents a water balance sheet for a given river basin.
Fig 2 A hypothetical water demand sites by different economic units for the Awash River Basin
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Table 3 Sample Water use estimates at river basin
Demand Sites
Origins
Different Economic
Units
Water Consumption (Mm
3
) (3 + 6) from table 1 above Remark
2011 2012 2013
Demand Site X Agriculture (rainfed)
Irrigation
Electricity generation
manufacturing
Fishing
Municipal Water
Household water use
Total water (Mm
3
)
Demand Site y Agriculture
Irrigation
Electricity generation
manufacturing
Fishing
Municipal Water
Household water use
Total Water (m
3
)
.. ..
..
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Annex G
Water Quality Monitoring
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Water Quality Monitoring
1. Introduction
Natural water exhibits a wide variety of chemicals, physical and hydro-morphological, and
biological characteristics that results from natural process and anthropogenic activities (SEEAW,
2006). Water quality changes occur due to human induced changes and due to natural causes,
which produce emissions or discharges of pollutants to the freshwater system. There are also
other causes to water quality changes such as due to self purification process, increased
abstraction of water for consumption (a case for ground water), and increased runoff due to
uncontrolled events. Each one of these events contributes to water quality changes that have
either positive or negative effects on the state of the freshwater system.
Water quality monitoring is an integral function in the water resources management in Ethiopia.
However, most functions is limited to only drinking water quality monitoring. Ambient or
environmental water quality monitoring is very limited to few hot spot areas largely around Addis
Ababa. The level of intensity of the work is less in Ethiopia, and as a result the impacts are very
severe, for instance in the areas around Upper Awash River Basin.
Given the complexity of the water resources in Ethiopia, the data needs for effective monitoring of
water quality is enormous, and there is a need to engage the various entities and organizations
involved in the protection and management of the water resources in the country. The government
is the main actor and it has the responsibility to meet the data needs in a cost effective manner.
One approach to be cost effective is to select few indicators that require limited data and that have
broad interpretations and reach in information.
Generally water quality monitoring provides the essential feedback about the effectiveness of the
efforts to manage water quality and aquatic resources. Thus it is essential to establish an effective
water quality monitoring framework as part of the overall water sector monitoring in the country.
2. Legal and Institutional Framework of the protection of the water and its Environment
Without freshwater of adequate quantity and quality, it is difficult to ensure integrated water
resources management at river basin level, and sustainable development will not be possible. The
national water resources management policy (FDRE, 2000) in Ethiopia promotes the creation of
appropriate mechanisms to protect and maintain the water resources of the country from any sort
of pollution and subsequently depletion of the freshwater system.
The Environmental Pollution Control Proclamation (Proclamation 300/2002) which is prepared by
the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) prohibits the release of pollutants into freshwater and
its environment. Any entity that causes any pollution shall be required to clean up or pay the cost of
cleaning up. The policy encourages and supports the installation of a sound technology for
treatment of pollutant wastes, and when feasible, to recycle the waste before disposal. The EPA
has also prepared Provisional Standard for Industrial Pollution Control (EPA, 2003) and a
regulation for the enforcement of the standards. A Draft Proposal of Ambient Environmental
Standards is also prepared (EPA, 2004).
Ethiopia is also signatory to multilateral international environmental agreements (MEAs) related to
the use and disposal of hazardous chemical and wastes (The Stockholm Convention on Persistent
Organic Pollutants, Basel Convention, Bamako Convention, and Vienna Convention), which
require the country to facilitate the establishment and strengthening of the national programs for
monitoring of regulated substances.
The Ministry of Water and Energy issued a guideline for Drinking Water in 2002 (MoWE, 2002).
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Fig 1 General framework for water quality and related parameters
Examples: Parasitic worms
Major Parameters Others ?? Major Parameters
Temperature Total Suspended Solids
(TSSs)
Flow
Changes of State
Mixing
Discharge-Recharge Infiltration
(Porous media)
Evaporation
Condensation
Solidification (Freezing)
Sublimation
CHEMICAL
Major Parameters
Others ?? Minor Inorganic Elements
pH
Total Dissolved Solids (TDS)
Hardness (Total Ca+Mg)
Alkalinity
Total Dissolved Oxygen
Major Cations:Ca,Mg,Na,K,NH
4
Major anions: CI,SO
4
,HCO
3
,PO
4
,H
2
S,NO
3
Total Organic Carbon (TOC)
Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD)
Major processes
Anions: Se,As,Cr(VI),V,Mc,B, F
Cations:
Fe,Al,Cu,Zm,Mn,Ba,Be,Co,Ni,Cd,Hg,Pb,
Cr(lll),Li, Sn, Th
Radio nuclides: U,Pa,Rn
Organic Carbon Fractions
Natural Substances
Lignins, Humic ackls
Chlorophyl, amino acids, fatty acids
Phenols, polyaromatic
and aliphatic
Chemical and biological
oxidation and reduction,
dissolution
Precipitation
Anthropogenic Substances
Chlorinated Hydrocarbons
Solvents, Pesticides
Volatile Organic Hydrocarbons
Solvents, light
Gasoline additives
Semi-volatile Hydrocarbons
Olis, fuels, pesticides
Phthalates, Surfactants
Medicines
Example: Antibiotics
BIOLOGICAL
Microorganis
Major Processes Viruses
Bacteria
Cultivable, Viable
Example: enteric: total
and fecal coliforms
Example:
Enteric
Protozoan
Example: Geardia, Entarnoeba
Helminthes
Biological activity
Algae
PHYSICAL
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3. Basic Conceptual Framework for Water Quality Assessment
A framework for effective water quality management system includes consideration of the various
water quality parameters (see Fig 1 above). Natural and human induced water quality parameters
(influenced by human activities) constitute the largest. The spatial and temporal design of the data
collection system, the development of the chemical, physical and biological indicators, and the
process used to assemble the data and information into meaningful assessments, and the
institutional framework within which it is accomplished constitutes the framework.
Water quality defines the suitability of freshwater bodies to sustain various uses or processes. Any
particular use will have certain requirements for the physical, chemical or biological characteristics
of the freshwater; for example water quality limits the use of water for drinking based on the level of
coli forms or concentrations of toxic substances, and similarly temperature and pH ranges are used
for invertebrate communities. There is increasing recognition on the need for water quality
management for natural ecosystems management as well. Certain monitoring parameters
(variables) are sensitive indicators to changes or deterioration in the ecosystem, providing a useful
addition to physical, chemical and other information. Therefore a range of variables, indicators,
which limit water use both for domestic water supply and environmental purposes, can define
water quality and its use for different purposes.
However, a wide range of natural conditions and human activities influence water quality. The most
important influences come from natural causes such as geological, hydrological and climatic
factors. Their influence is generally greatest when available water quantities are low. For instance,
salinity is a frequent problem in arid areas of Ethiopia where water availability is low. Urbanization
and urban sewage causes gross organic pollution that can cause disturbance on the level of
oxygen and it is often accompanied by severe pathogenic contamination. Accelerated
eutrophication results from enrichment with nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorous from
various origins, particularly domestic sewage from urban areas, and agricultural run-off and agro
industrial effluents in large scale commercial and state farms.
Without strict environmental safeguards the increasing use of agrochemicals in large commercial
farms is causing widespread concern. Their impacts, the deterioration of the soil/water ecosystem
as well as the groundwater sources are not assessed. The main water quality problems on record
that are associated with agriculture are high level of nitrate and pesticide contamination in
freshwater sources.
Intensive agriculture and associated soil erosion in the highlands are contributing high sediment
load to the streams/rivers, thereby reducing the quality of water and increased siltation problems
on hydraulic infrastructures.
Water pollution from industrial wastes (hot spots) has become a growing concern in industrial
areas. Direct contamination of surface waters with metals and toxic pollutants discharged from
industries such as tanneries, metal processing and industrial manufacturing is a growing concern
in rapidly industrial urban centers such as Addis Ababa and the vicinity. Contamination of water by
synthetic organic micro pollutants results either from direct discharge into surface waters or after
transport through the atmosphere. Today, there is a trace of contamination not only of surface
waters but also of groundwater bodies, which are susceptible to leaching from waste dumps,
industrial production sites and mine tailings. Any significant changes to water quality will usually be
disruptive to the ecosystem, and reversing the situation to a normal state of condition will require
enormous financial and technical support.
Contamination of drinking water by point and non point sources has long been a threat to human
health and a cause to several diseases. The magnitude of waterborne disease is significantly
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higher than what is routinely reported. This is due to underreporting. Attributing cases to specific
risk factors is often difficult due to the ubiquitous and multi-factorial nature of the hazards in the
population. Water treatment is therefore essential in order to produce safe drinking water. Aquatic
ecosystems can be threatened by a variety of pollutants as well as destructive land-use or water-
management practices. Discharge of toxic chemicals, over-pumping of aquifers, and contamination
of water bodies with substances that promote algal growth (possibly leading to eutrophication) are
some of todays major causes of water quality problems.
The quality of water may be described in terms of the concentration and state (dissolved or
particulate) of some or all of the organic and inorganic material present in the water, together with
certain physical characteristics of the water. It is determined by in situ measurements and by
examination of water samples on site or in a laboratory. The main elements of water quality
monitoring are, therefore, on-site measurements, the collection and analysis of water samples, the
study and evaluation of the analytical results, and the reporting of the findings. The results of
analyses performed on a single water sample are only valid for the particular location and time at
which that sample was taken. One purpose of a monitoring program is, therefore, to gather
sufficient data (by means of regular or intensive sampling and analysis) to assess spatial and/or
temporal variations in water quality.
Presently there is no systematic water quality management framework in Ethiopia. Assessments
are done on ad hoc basis, and there are no clear responsibilities outlined for the institutions and
organizations engaged in this function. The development of water quality indicators is a significant
step, but still a long way to make the tools useable and effective. The lagal and institutional
framework is another hurdle.
The proposed water quality indicator in the core indicators lump together several of the water
quality parameters. This makes the indicator difficult in data collection, analysis (establishing
mathematical relationship and indices) and interpretation for trend analysis.
3.2 Indicator for monitoring Water Quality
Concentration of human induced and natural pollutants in hot spots has been the initial indicator
developed in the diagnostic study report. It is a holistic indicator containing several parameters.
The indicators most commonly used for monitoring human induced pollutants in freshwater
systems are developed in this document. The proposed indicator represents several of the most
important parameters as shown in fig 1 below (Annex E) in aggregated form. It is not an easy task
to use this indicator to provide the desired information on pollutants unless it is further
disaggregated by the major pollutants type and by type of hotspots. For instance, in areas where
agriculture intensification exists, there is a hotspot, and hence it will require the monitoring of those
major pollutants. In areas where industries such tannery, textiles, etc. exists, it is also a hot spot
since they use dangerous chemicals. These industries waste management need monitoring on
how safely the major pollutants are discharged, and so on. Therefore indicators have to be
developed based on the type of hotspots well recognized and prioritized by the public and the
community. On the basis of such threats and local experiences, the following are the major
hotspots suggested for the development of the indicator in question for monitoring freshwater
quality and the functioning of the ecosystem in Ethiopia.
Industries such as tanneries, textiles, etc. (point source pollutants)
Large scale commercial agricultural areas (non-point source pollutants) since herbicide,
pesticide, fertilizers, etc. used pollute the freshwater systems through runoff of unspecified
origin,
Mining such as gold, soda ash, etc. (point source pollutants)
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Within the above mentioned water quality-monitoring framework, indicators are proposed to
monitor water quality of freshwater systems. Of the long list of indicators available internationally,
six water quality indicators are selected and proposed for further study in Ethiopia.
Sub-Indicator # 1: Level of Biochemical Oxygen demand (BOD) in surface water
Sub-Indicator# 2: Level of nutrients (Total Nitrogen (TN) and Phosphorous (TP) in
freshwater systems
Sub-Indicator # 3: Concentration of heavy metals in freshwater
Sub-Indicator # 4: Level of agricultural pesticides in freshwater systems
Sub-indicator # 5: Total Suspended Solids (TSS)
The first water quality indicator is discussed and methodological sheet is developed for use in
Ethiopia (refer chapter 6). The other four will be considered in the future as need for their use
increases.
3.3 Features of the indicators
The indicators selected are representative of health, aesthetic and amenity values which are
prevalent and measured. The proposed indicators are related to common water quality problems,
and they are able to cover prioritized natural and human induced pollutants in any hotspot areas in
the country. The set of indicators proposed are small and yet reveals sufficient information about
the state of quality of freshwater systems. Data collections for most of the indicators are not too
complicated or expensive.
The national water policy (FDRE, 2000) gives priority to the provision of access to clean and safe
[high quality] drinking water to the people and protection of the environment. This is the basis for
considering sub-indicator 1 and the other four indicators. It is an important indicator with the
objective to protect human health and its environment. BOD level in freshwater indicates the
available oxygen in the freshwater system which shows either the presence or absence of
hazardous wastes that could be a threat to both the humans, animals, plants and aquatic
resources. It also provides a cursor to further study on the nature of the pollutants, and this
indicator is a lead and easy to do type. The indicator is collected to measure the vitality of the
water resources in lakes, reservoirs, rivers and streams. On the basis of this argument, the other
three indicators could be considered on the basis of their importance, though still considered as
important in this study
The information obtained through these indicators would be used to establish water quality
standards and define requirements for various uses and set permit system to abstract water and
discharge effluent on to freshwater systems to reflect the needs of the river basin. In this way
investments can be evaluated and the monitoring can be focused on known environmental
outcomes.
3.4 Data Availability for Indicators
Indicators need to have data possibly long period data of twenty and thirty years. In this study
preliminary assessment on data availability for BOD is made, and a large part of the data collected
is in Addis Ababa and in the Upper Awash River Sub Basin. There are enough data for domestic
water supply, and data is collected by the Urban Water Supply Authorities in the respective urban
centers, and the regional water bureaus for rural water supply services in the respective regions.
While the ambient water quality is limited to only few River Basins, Awash and Blue Nile Basins,
and may be only also for a short period. It is collected at a river basin level by different
organizations and institutions; the respective River Basin Administrations under MoWE,
Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), Universities and Research Institutions.
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For the domestic water supply, there is already enough data for the development of indicators.
There is also a format well developed in the recently developed and ratified Monitoring and
Evaluation Manual and guideline for rolling out the first national data collection for WaSH sector.
3.5 Water Quality Accounts
3.5.1 Introduction
Water quality is an important characteristic of freshwater water resources. It limits the freshwater
status and its use, and hence that portion of freshwater with a water quality problem is
unaccounted. Water quality account is, therefore, an important input into the physical water
accounting of freshwater systems in River Basins. It presents the freshwater stocks in
rivers/streams, groundwater, lakes, reservoirs, etc. based on the status of the quality with values
assigned based on class of water quality developed and accepted the water quality framework
directives developed in a country.
Water quality accounts are useful tools for the assessment/evaluation of water resources suitability
for different uses. It provides comparison of the stocks of fresh water available and the prevailed
changes in the quality over time and space. It could be used to measure the efficiency of water
management programs. For instance the cost effectiveness of the investments made by private or
public actors working in waste water treatment and distribution, or polluted fresh water systems
management in a river basin could be assessed using these water quality accounts. It is therefore
important to aggregate water quality over river basins.
3.5.2 Water quality assessment
Ethiopia does not have a comprehensive water quality management framework directive which
outlines the different uses of fresh water (water for industry, irrigation, drinking, and for
environmental support) and quality requirements, and monitoring requirements. There are no
definitions and measurements set for different class of water quality for different uses in the
country. However Ethiopia has already a guideline for ambient water quality with threshold levels
indicated for each of the identified parameters. A guideline for standard drinking water quality is
separately prepared and it is now fully in use where drinking water quality monitoring exists. The
parameters and their values are consistent with WHO water quality standard. However in few
parameters, for instance for fluoride, the level is adapted to local conditions in the country and it is
allowed to use 3 mg/liter rather than the standard 1.5 mg/liter.
In order to evaluate water uses based on water quality, water use suitability indicators for different
uses of freshwater need to be established. For instance for Irrigation, the French uses four
indicators (SEEAW, 2006), and these are Salinity, micro-organisms, micro pollutants and
pesticides. For instance the establishment of threshold levels for the different well recognized
parameters (such as BOD as identified for this study), definition and measurement of water quality
classes, etc. are needed so that water quality accounts can be prepared. In Ethiopia some work
has already been done in terms of preparing guidelines for water quality assessment/audit which
identified essential water quality parameters with threshold levels for different uses. It provides an
indication of the measure taken to protect or improve the state of water bodies in the rivers basin
and it can be seen as a first step towards ecosystem accounting and its variants.
3.5.3 The structure of the accounts
The general structure of the quality accounts is the same as that of the water asset accounts in the
annex F table 1. The only difference is the addition of the water quality dimension, which describes
the volume of water polluted which is unaccounted for in the freshwater stock. In the Water Quality
framework that need to be developed in a country, guidelines should give different classes of water
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quality and their use, and the water quality accounts use such classes as a basis for its
assessment.
Table 1 General Structure of Water Quality Accounts
Source: SEEA, 2003
Quality Classes
Quality 1 Quality 2 Quality 3 . .n1 Quality n Total
Opening stocks
Changes in stocks
Closing stocks