RIO2012IssuesBriefs

ProducedbytheUNCSDSecretariat,November2011,No.7

Greenjobsandsocialinclusion

1. Introduction
Thisnoteprovidesabriefintroductiontothegreenjobsdebate and reviews commitments made by Governments in terms of employmentandgreenjobs.

2. Whygreenjobs?
The world faces several sustainable development challenges which requirecoordinated action, as evidenced by the recurring food,fuel,climateandfinancialcrises.Thesemultiplecrisesneed tobeaddressedatthesametime.Theconceptofgreenjobs1is an attempt to look for synergies in simultaneously addressing employment,energyandenvironmentissues. Energy use and environmental stresses have reached a scale at which planetary boundaries are being reached, increasing the probability of catastrophic environmental change.2,15 Despite many efforts, the declared goal of establishing a renewables based lowcarbon energy system on a global scale remains elusive.Modernrenewablesjointlyaccountforonlyabout1per cent of primary energy, and CO2 emissions growth has been accelerating.3

valuesnotthatdifferentfromthoseforfossilfiredpower.7Policy makersshouldbeinterestedingettingasmuchbenefit(suchas jobs) for each dollar spent and thus take into account the different power generation costs. In terms of jobs per dollar spent, wind power and biomassfired power are moreattractive thanthehighercostsolarPVandmoreattractivethanmostbut not all gas and coalfired power capacities.8 The green growth perspective suggests getting prices right through internalizing externalcosts.9SolarPVturnsouttobemostattractiveinterms of jobs created per dollar spent on electricity by consumers and incurredasexternalcostsbysociety.1011
Figure1.Employmentcreationperformanceofpowersectoroptions
60 50 40 30
Jobs per 10 GW h Jobs per M W ins ta lle d c a p a c ity, w e ig hte d b y c a p a city fa c to r Jobs per M W ins ta lle d c a p a c ity

20

3. Whataregreenjobs?
Thereisnogenerallyagreeddefinitionofgreenjobs.Inviewof this, the current brief looks at the net employment impacts economywide of policies and measures taken to green the economyratherthanfocusingexclusivelyongreenjobsperse. While many of the estimates of job impacts of green policies are global in nature, derived from modelbased scenario work, mostcommitmentsinthisareaareatthenationallevel.Thejob benefits are often a main political selling point for green policies, even though most actions consider green jobs creation asacobenefitanddonotfocusonitasaprimarygoal.
10 0
low high low high W ind low high Natural gas C oal and lignite S olar P V B iom ass
J o b s p e r m illio n U S $ sp e nt o n e le c tric ity a nd inc urre d a s e xte rna l c o s ts b y s o c ie ty J o b s p e r m illio n U S $ sp e nt o n e le c tric ity

Datasources:Kammenetal.(2006);Huntington(2009);Hirschberg(2009).

4. Makingsenseofgreenjobsestimates
The debate on green jobs has focused largely on the energy sector and has drawn on technical and macroeconomic estimates of employment factors of energy technologies. The politicisation of the debate is evident in the selective choice of performance metrics by many analysts. Results differ greatly mostlyonaccountoftheuseofdifferentperformancemetrics4, usingthesameunderlyingdata(figure1).5 Advocatesofrenewableenergytypicallyemphasizethefactthat renewable electricity is associated with 5 to 40 times more jobs per MW than fossilfired technologies.6 When adjusted for the smaller capacity factors of intermittent solar and wind power sources, the differences in job creation potential are much reduced. Solar PV is still associated with about ten times more jobsperGWhthanfossilfiredpower,buttherangesofestimates forwindandbiomassfiredpowerareverylargeandtheabsolute

Governmentstypicallyprovidesubsidiesandadditionalincentives for clean technologies that reduce resources that might otherwisebeavailableforothersectors.Governmentsupportfor higher cost renewable energy might lead to significant net job losses,inviewofthefactthattypicalemploymentfactorsof1.6 to6.5jobspermillionUS$forrenewableenergyaresmallerthan for most other expenditure items (e.g., US household bundles (17),construction(12),fastfood(31),USeconomyaverage(10)). Also, what happens to jobs economywide if an expanding renewables share alters electricity bills depends on how consumersadjustexpendituresnotjusttorelativepricechanges buttothechangeintheirrealincomes.Inreality,theoveralljobs impactisratheruncertain. In summary, the employment benefit of green solutions is not evident across the board, but some options stand out: cost competitiveenergyefficiency,publictransport,biofuelsandpro poor solutions. Reducing technology cost and improving quality of clean energy technologies increases their jobs creation potential. Largescale propoor programmes have employment 1

factors of around 1,000 jobs per million US$ spent,12 which is muchhigherthanthosetypicalforcleanenergyprogrammesof2 to10jobspermillionUS$.

6. Winners,losers,andadjustmentmeasures
While green growth is most likely leading to a global net employment increase until midcentury, some countries are expected to benefit more than others from it. Net job creation will depend, inter alia, on a countrys production and R&D capacity, natural resource endowments, labour supply, energy andtradepolicies. Major changes are expected not only in the energy sector, but across sectors and countries partly as a result of the changes in theenergysector. In addition to lowcarbon energy supply, investments in green industries are likely to increase significantly with global demand for their products. Countries will benefit most who cultivate greenRD&Dandproductionjobs.Whilemanyofthefuturegreen RD&Djobswillcontinuetobeinhighincomecountries,mostof the production jobs and a growing share of RD&D jobs will be created in emerging economies. In fact, in 2008 public and private energy RD&D in BRICS countries was US$18 billion, or threetimesthatintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.15 Overall employment in resource extraction sectors will continue to decline, irrespective of the extent of green growth policies. Thus,adjustmentandretrainingmeasuresareessential.

5. Greenstimulusandjobs
In response to the financial crisis, many large economies had adopted green stimulus packages by2009.The green share in overallstimuluspackagesrangedfrom3%inJapanto81%inthe RepublicofKorea.Muchofthestimuluswasallocatedtoenergy efficiency of buildings, railway networks, and power grids, with onlyasmallshareforrenewableenergy.13Thegreenstimuliare likely associated with the creation of about 4 million jobs. It shouldbenoted,however,thatmostofthemweredebtfinanced and thus might reduce future consumption and jobs creation, unlesstheinvestmentsprovideanadequateproductivityboost.

5. Globalestimatesofgreenjobscreationuntil2050
AwidelyquotedUNEP/ILOgreenjobsreport14suggestedthatthe numberofgreenjobsintheworldmightincreasefrom2.3to20 million from 2006 to 2030, which implies creation of 750,000 greenjobsperyear(59%inbiofuels,31%insolarPV).Chinaalone wouldhave4.5millionjobsinwindandsolarpowerby2020. With all duecaveats,coordinated global actionand investments of about US$1.8 trillion to achieve a series of sustainable developmentobjectives15mightleadto13millionnewgreenjobs per year until 2050.16 Considering that higher costs in energy supplywouldreplaceotherjobsthroughlowerconsumption,net global job creation would be less, possibly substantially so. The overall estimate and future patterns of employment are highly uncertain and depend on a number of future trends most of which indicate significant future overall job creation, but also a rapidly growing labour force (table 1). Under no conceivable assumptions will green jobs alone be an answer to the global employment challenge to create on the order of 63 million decentnewjobsperyearuntil2050.17
Table1.Stylizedfactorsandlikelyfutureemploymentpatterns
Factor Population Energydemand GHGmitigation Technical characteristics Technology origin Technology costs Intlproduction networks Propoor employment programmes Likelytrenduntil2050 +2billion +50100% Renewablesupplyathigh cost,lessonenduse efficiency Intermittentsources Technologytransfertopoor countries,development& manufacturingelsewhere Reducedsignificantly Increasinglycomplexand global Inanincreasingnumberof middleincomecountries Likelyemploymentimpact Largeexpansionof developingcountrylabour supply Moreenergyjobs Moreenergyjobs,but longtermjobcreation belowpotential Backupneeded,leading tomoreenergyjobs Mostnewgreenjobsin largeemergingeconomies Morejobs,butnot necessarilyinenergy Jobbenefitsaccrueto relativelyfewcountries andcompanies Veryhighshortto mediumterm employmentimpact

7. Existinginternationalcommitments
The preferred emphasis of this note would be on committed goals with timebound targets, in view of notes objective to inform discussions on possible outcomes at Rio+20. However, qualitativecommitmentsthatarenottimeboundorwelldefined arealsoconsidered,inviewofthepaucityoftimeboundtargets on employment matters and even more so on green jobs. The following documents were consulted: Agenda 21 (1992); Johannesburg Programme of Implementation (JPOI, 2002); the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, 2000, and the 2008 update); the outcome document of the UN Summit on the Millennium Development Goals (2010); the World Summit for SocialDevelopment(WSSD,Copenhagen,1995). Only two timebound global commitments related to employmentorgreenjobshavebeenidentified(table2):(i)New MDG target 1B was included following work by the UN Commission for Social Development and an interagency expert group (IAEG): Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people by 201518(fourindicatorswereaddedunderMDG1andoneunder MDG 3); (ii) JPOI calls for an increase [of] decent employment, credit and income for the urban poor by 2020 as a means to improve the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers. Many outcome documents of global summits contain only general commitments regarding employment, incomegeneration, green jobs, and skills. One example is Agenda 21 in which such commitmentsareincludedinatotalof12chapters(table3). Para70(d)oftheoutcomedocumentoftheMDGSummitin2010 provides a synthesis of most of the reviewed commitments on green jobs: We commit ourselves to accelerating progress in order to achieve Millennium Development Goal 1, including 2

through: Pursuing jobintensive, sustained, inclusive and equitable economic growth and sustainable development to promotefullandproductiveemploymentanddecentworkforall, including for women, indigenous people, young people, people withdisabilitiesandruralpopulations,andpromotingsmalland mediumsized enterprises through initiatives such as skills enhancement and technical training programmes, vocational training and entrepreneurial skills development. Employers and workers representatives should be closely associated with these initiatives;
Table2.Summaryoftimeboundcommitments Agenda21, chapter7 Agenda21, Agenda 21, chapter14 chapter12 Agenda21,chapter18 Agenda21, chapter11 Source MDG update 2008 GoalandTarget MDG1B:Achievefullandproductiveemployment and decent work for all, including women and youngpeople 11(c) Increase decent employment, credit and income for the urban poor, through appropriate nationalpolicies,promotingequalopportunitiesfor womenandmen; Delivery 2015

7.16(b)(i) All countries shouldundertake the following activitiesAccelerating efforts to reduce urban poverty through a number of actions, including: i. Generating employmentfortheurbanpoor,particularlywomen,through urban infrastructure and services and the support of economic activities in the informal sector, such as repairs, recycling,servicesandsmallcommerce;. 7.16(d)Developinglocalstrategiesforimprovingthequality oflifeandtheenvironmenttherebypromotingemployment generation that is environmentally sound and protective of humanhealth. 7.20 and 7.20(d) green works programmes should be activated to create selfsustaining human development activities and both formal and informal employment opportunitiesforlowincomeurbanresidents; 7.54 and 7.54(a) all countries should a. Provide onthe job and other training of government officials, planners, traffic engineers and managers involved in the energy serviceandtransportsection; 7.60 and 7.60(i) To promote a culture of safety the following activities should be carried out: .Restructuring of theeconomicactivitiesandpromotingnewjobopportunities inenvironmentallysoundsectors 7.69 (e) All countries should Promote the use of labour intensive construction and maintenance technologies which generateemploymentfortheunderemployedlabourforce 11.22 (g) and (h) Governmentsshould undertake the following activitiespromoting valueadding secondary processing for improved employment, income and retained value;Promoting and supporting the management of wildlife, as well as ecotourism, including farmingfor improvedruralincomeandemployment 12.48(c)Prepareruralprojectsforprovidingshorttermrural employmenttodroughtaffectedhouseholds.

2020

Source

JPOI

Table3.Summaryofcommitmentsthatarenottimebound.Those relatingdirectlytogreenjobsarehighlightedingreen. GoalandTarget 3.3 direct action in eradicating poverty by strengthening employmentandincomegeneratingprogrammes. 3.4(c) To develop for all povertystricken areas integrated strategies and programmes of sound and sustainable management of the environment, resource mobilization, povertyeradicationandalleviation,employmentandincome generation; Agenda21, chapter3 3.8(a) Governments, with the assistance of and in cooperation withinternational, nongovernmental and local communityorganizations,shouldestablishmeasuresthatwill directly or indirectly: a. Generate remunerative employment and productive occupational opportunitieson a scale sufficient to take care of prospective increases in the labour force 3.10 and 3.10(a) The United Nations systemshould make poverty alleviation a major priority and [S]upport and special emphasis on employment and income generation shouldbegivenparticularattentioninthisregard; 5.46. Nationally determined policies for integrated programmeswomen's employment should, as appropriate,beincludedamongotherfactors. 5.48 Empowerment of women is essential and should be assured through education, training and policies to accord andimprovewomen'srightandaccesstoassets,humanand civil rights, laboursaving measures, job opportunities and participationindecisionmaking

14.27(b) Create nonfarm employment opportunities through private smallscale agroprocessing units, rural servicecentresandrelatedinfrastructuralimprovements; 18.31 Water resources assessmentEducation and training programmesdesignedtoensureanadequatesupplyofthese trained personnel should be established or strengthenedIn addition, the provision of attractive terms of employment and career paths for professional and technical staff should beencouraged.Humanresourceneedsshouldbemonitored periodically,includingalllevelsofemployment.Planshaveto be established to meet those needs through education and training opportunities and international programmes of coursesandconferences.

Agenda21, chapter5

24.3(f)Governmentsshouldtakeactivestepstoimplement thefollowingProgrammestosupportandstrengthenequal employment opportunities and equitable remuneration for women in the formal and informal sectors with adequate economic, political and social support systems and services, including child care, particularly daycare facilities and parental leave, and equal access to credit, land and other naturalresources; 25.9(e) Governments, according to their strategies, should take measures to:develop and implement strategies for creating alternative employment opportunities and provide requiredtrainingtoyoungmenandwomen; 29.5. Governments, business and industry should promote the active participation of workers and their trade unions in decisions on the design, implementation and evaluation of national and international policies and programmes on environment and development, including employment policies,industrialstrategies,labouradjustmentprogrammes andtechnologytransfers. 32.6(b) National Governments shouldPromote pricing mechanisms,tradepolicies,fiscalincentivesandotherpolicy instruments that positively affect individual farmer's decisions about an efficient and sustainable use of natural resources, and take full account of the impact of these decisions on household food security, farm incomes, employmentandtheenvironment; 36.12.Trainingisoneofthemostimportanttoolstodevelop human resources and facilitate the transition to a more sustainableworld.Itshouldhaveajobspecificfocus 36.17 New training approaches for existing environmentally sound practices should be developed that createemploymentopportunitiesandmakemaximumuseof localresourcebasedmethods. 36.22..Nationalandregionalenvironmentallabourmarket informationsystemsshouldbedeveloped 7(e)Developpoliciesandwaysandmeanstoimproveaccess by indigenous people and their communities to economic activities and increase their employment throughmeasures suchastraining,technicalassistanceandcreditfacilities. 10(b) Provide assistance to increase incomegenerating employment opportunities, taking into account the DeclarationonFundamentalPrinciplesandRightsatWorkof theInternationalLabourOrganization; 48. We stress the need to create full and productive employment and decent work for all and further resolve to promotetheGlobalJobsPactasageneralframeworkwithin whicheachcountrycanformulatepolicypackagesspecificto itssituationandnationalprioritiesinordertopromoteajob intensive recovery and sustainable development. We call on Member States to take effective measures for promoting social inclusion and integration and incorporate these into theirnationaldevelopmentstrategies.

70(d)and(e)Wecommitourselvestoacceleratingprogress to achieve Millennium Development Goal 1, including through:(d)Pursuingjobintensive,sustained,inclusiveand equitable economic growth and sustainable development to promote full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women, indigenous people, young people, people with disabilities and rural populations, and promoting small and mediumsized enterprises through initiatives such as skills enhancement and technical training programmes, vocational training and entrepreneurial skills development.Employersandworkersrepresentativesshould be closely associated with these initiatives; (e) Improving opportunities for young people to gain access to productive employmentanddecentworkthroughincreasedinvestment in youth employment, active labourmarket support and publicprivatepartnerships,aswellasthroughthecreationof enablingenvironmentstofacilitatetheparticipationofyoung people in labour markets, in accordance with international rulesandcommitments; 72(d)Ensuringthatwomenbenefitfrompolicymeasuresto generate full and productive employment and decent work forall Commitment3:Wecommitourselvestopromotingthegoal of full employment as a basic priority of our economic and socialpolicies,andtoenablingallmenandwomentoattain secure and sustainable livelihoods through freely chosen productiveemploymentandwork. Commitment8Wecommitourselvestoensuringthatwhen structuraladjustmentprogrammesareagreedtotheyinclude social development goals, in particular eradicating poverty, promoting full and productive employment, and enhancing socialintegration.

Agenda21, chapter32

Agenda21, chapter29

Agenda21, chapter25

Agenda21,chapter24

Agenda21, chapter36

8. Deliveryoncommitments
A review of the overall, global delivery of the employment and green jobsrelated commitments is sobering (table 4). While judgment is needed to assess delivery against the not so well defined commitments, there is ample evidence to suggest that progresshasbeenslowandinsomecasesevencontradictoryto the stated goal. It is impossible to say whether delivery of commitmentsspecificallyrelatingtogreenjobshasfaredbetter orworsethanthosegenerictoemploymentasawhole. IntermsofthemostprominentgoalMDG1Btoachievefull and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people, the actual trend has been in the wrongdirection.Exacerbatedbytheglobalfinancialcrises,labour markets have recently deteriorated, more workers have been forced into vulnerable employment, and more workers find themselves and their families living in extreme poverty.

MDG2010

JPOI

WSSD1995

Table 4. Issues, commitments, and their delivery to date. Green jobs-specific elements are highlighted in green. Issue Full and productive employment and decentwork Commitments MDG1B,MDG 2010(48and 70(d)),WSSD1995 (commitments3 and8) MDG2010(70(d), 48) Recenttrends Some progress before 2008, thereafter worsening. In 2010, more than 180 million people were formally unemployed, and 1.3 billion people wereintheinformalsector. Delivery No

Pursue jobintensive, sustained, inclusive and equitable economic growthandsustainabledevelopment

Decentemploymentfortheurbanpoor (including through infrastructure and informalsector) Strengthenedemploymentandincome generating policies and actions for the poor(inlinewithILOprinciples) Generate sufficient employment in line withfutureincreaseinlabourforce Improve womens access to equal employment opportunities and remuneration Improveaccessofindigenousgroupsto employmentandtraining Training/skills for a sustainability transition, including in environment, energy, transport, water, and constructionsectors Local strategies and green works for green jobs (for formal and informal sectors,andurbanpoor) Ruralemploymentgenerationinwildlife management, ecotourism, and farming.

JPOI11(c),Agenda 21(7.16(b),MDG 2010(48)) Agenda21(3.3, 3.4(c),3.10),JPOI 10(b) Agenda21(3.8(a))

Since 2009, more than US$400 billion has been committed to a green stimulus, mainly in highincome and middleincome countries. Yet, the stimulus has been far from equitable (within and across countries), nor jobintensive. The stimulus has created an estimated 4 million which correspondstoanemploymentfactorofabout10jobs/mnUS$spent. Significant progress in some cities, but far from achieved on the global level Someprogressintermsofincomegeneratingpolicies,butILOprinciples havenotalwaysbeenrespected. Thelabourforceisexpectedtoincreasebyaboutonebillionuntil2050. Todealwithonlythisincrease,atleast25millionnewjobsneedtobe addedeachyear. Significant improvement in many countries since 1992, but large differencespersistamongandwithincountries. Slowprogress,exceptforfewcountries. Increased training in many countries, but no systematic approach to supportingworkersindangerofbeingreplaced.

Partial

Partial

Partial

No

Agenda21(5.46, 5.48,24.3(f)), MDG2010(72(d)) JPOI(7(e)),MDG 2010(72(d)) Agenda21(7.54, 7.69(e),18.31, 36.12,36.17), MDG2010(72(d)) Agenda21 (7.16(d),7.20(d), 7.60,7.69(e)) Agenda21(11.22 (g)and(h))

Partial

No Partial

Selected good practices, but not in line with the magnitude of the challenge. Progress in some countries in terms of employment in wildlife managementandecotourism,butlesssoinfarming.Inthoseresource intensive developing countries of Africa and Latin America where employmentinagriculturehasincreased,itisprimarilyduetoincreased povertyandlackofalternativeopportunities. Significant progress in some middleincome countries, little progress in lowincomecountries. Inmanycountries,youthunemploymenthasincreasedinrecentyears.

No

Partial

Rural employment programmes, includingthroughagroprocessing,rural servicecentresandinfrastructure. Alternative employment opportunities foryoungmenandwomen Participationofworkersandtheirtrade unionsinpolicydecisions Green policies and economic instruments to consider employment impacts Structural adjustment programmes to include social development goals, including full and productive employment

Agenda21 (12.48(c), 14.27(b)) Agenda21 (25.9(e)),MDG 2010(72(e)) Agenda21(29.5), MDG2010(72(d)) Agenda21 (32.6(b),36.22) WSSD1995 (Commitment8)

Partial

No

Progressinsomecountries,regressioninothers. Whileemploymentimpactsaretypicallyfeaturedinpoliticalstatements, they are typically not a key factor in the design of green policies and economicinstrumentsinmanycountries. Wheretheseprogrammesexist,someprogresshastypicallybeenseen. However,thereisaneedforstructuraladjustmentprogrammesalsoin manyofthelowincomecountrieswheretheytypicallydonotexist.

No No

Partial

9. Greenjobsrelatedgoalsproposedrecently
Thissectionmentionsgoalsrelatedtogreenjobsthathavebeen putforwardrecently.Manyotherideasforgoalsandassociated targetshavebeenproposedbythinktanks,NGOs,andothers. ProposalbyColombiaandGuatemalaonSustainable DevelopmentGoals(SDGs)19 ThisproposaldoesnotincludeanSDGrelatingtoemploymentor greenjobs.Thefirstareaoffocusispovertyeradicationbutmost otherareasrelatetootherissues. DPI/NGOconference20 ThedeclarationfromCSOshasproposedseveralgoalsandtargets thatrelatetoemploymentandgreenjobs: we call upon governments tocreate green jobs and to green existing jobs with a special focus on youth, women and disadvantagedgroups SDGHealthyForests:Restorationofover150millionhectaresof clearedordegradedforestlandscapesisachievedby2020 SDG Sustainable livelihoods, youth & education:By 2015, governments incorporate within development frameworks as a priority,investmentsintheeducation,healthandemploymentof young people, who face disproportionate levels of poverty, unemployment, gender discrimination and ill health. Governments should support comprehensive policies, youth participation and multisectoral programmes that empower present and future generations to fully and freely exercise their humanrights,fulfilltheiraspirationsandbeproductivecitizens.

MajorGroupWorkersandTradeUnions InitssubmissionforRio+20,themajorgroupWorkersandTrade UnionssuggestedthattheworldsleaderscommittoAcountry by country selfidentified target on decent and green jobs to be reached in the next 510 years, accompanied by a package of decentworkpoliciestosecurejobsquality.Thistargetshouldhelp at least doubling the number of green and decent jobs.21 Furthermore,theysuggestthatInanyagreementonsustainable developmentgoals,governmentsshouldagreeonacommitment to ensure that at least half of the workers of the world have decent jobsby 2020,accompanied by a second goal ensuring all governmentshaveaSocialProtectionFloorinplaceby2020.

10. How to structure a discussion on employment and greenjobsgoals?

There are only two timebound goals and targets related to employmentandgreenjobs,andtheirdeliverydatehasnotyet expired: MDG 1B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent workforall,includingwomenandyoungpeopleby2015. JPOI 11(c): Increase decent employment, credit and income for theurbanpoor,throughappropriatenationalpolicies,promoting equalopportunitiesforwomenandmenby2020. In this context, discussions might want to focus on accelerating progress towards these goals and the role of secondary education; social inclusiveness; largescale public works programmes; research, development and demonstration; and othermeasures.

The purpose of the Rio 2012 Issues Briefs is to provide a channel for policymakers and other interested stakeholders to discuss and review issues relevant to the objective and themes of the conference, including a green economy in the context of sustainable developmentandpovertyeradication,aswellastheinstitutionalframeworkforsustainabledevelopment. ForfurtherinformationonthisBrief,pleasecontactR.AlexanderRoehrl(roehrl@un.org).
Jacobs,M.,(1994).GreenJobs?TheEmploymentImplicationsofEnvironmentalPolicy.Brussels:WorldWideFundforNature. Rockstrm,Johan,andothers(2009).Asafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.Nature,vol.461,No.7263(24September),pp.472475. 3 vanVuuren,D.P.,andKeywanRiahi(2008).Dorecentemissiontrendsimplyhigheremissionsforever?ClimaticChange,vol.91,No.3,pp.237248. 4 Huntington,H.,(2009).CreatingJobsWithGreenPowerSources.UnitedStatesAssociationforEnergyEconomics,DialogueVol.17,No.1,March, p.1215. 5 Kammen,D.M.,Kapadia,K.,Fripp,M.,(2004).PuttingRenewablestoWork:HowManyJobsCantheCleanEnergyIndustryGenerate?RAELReport, UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley. 6 Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council published technologyspecific estimates of personyears per MW in construction, manufacturing and installation, together with operation and maintenance jobs per MW and fuelprocessing jobs per GWh, but excluding fossil fuel extraction,transportationandtrade,andinterindustryeffects,suchassteelinputs.Theirdataarealsoinlinewiththoseusedhere. 7 Thiswouldbeevenmoreso,ifweconsideredalsothejobsatthestageoffuelproductionwhicharenotincludedhere. 8 Usinglevelizedelectricitycostsfromawidelycitedstudy:Metcalf,G.E.(2006).FederalTaxPolicyTowardsEnergy,NationalBureauofEconomic Research,WorkingPaper12568,October. 9 Externalcostsarenotpaidforbypowerproducersbutareeventuallybornebyeveryone. 10 Externalcostsaretakenfromthemostcomprehensivesuchassessmenttodate,usingalifecycleapproach:theEUsNEEDSproject. 11 Hirschberg et al., (2009). Final report on sustainability assessment of advanced electricity supply options. Deliverable D10.2 RS2b. New Energy ExternalitiesDevelopmentsforSustainability(NEEDS),ProjectNo.502687.EuropeanCommissions6thFrameworkProgramme.April.
2 1

Forexample,IndiasRuralEmploymentGuaranteeActprovidedanestimated10millionjobs(FTE)associatedwithaninvestmentofUS$8billionin 2009/2010. 13 Strand and Toman (2010). 'Green Stimulus', Economic Recovery, and LongTerm Sustainable Development. World Bank Policy Research Working PaperNo.5163. 14 UNEPandILO(2008).Greenjobs:towardsdecentworkinasustainable,lowcarbonworld.ISBN:9789280729405. 15 UN(2011).WorldEconomicandSocialSurvey2011,http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf 16 ThisisbasedonareviewofinvestmentneedscontainedintheWorldEconomicandSocialSurvey2011,andconservativelyassumesemployment factorsof5forenergysupplyand10forenduseandenergyappliances. 17 Roehrl, R.A., (2011). Green jobs does green growth lead to a net employment increase? Draft DESA working paper, UNDESA, September 2011. [ComplementaryinformationnotetothecurrentIssuesBrief.] 18 http://www.ilo.org/empelm/what/WCMS_114244/langen/index.htm 19 Rio+20:SustainableDevelopmentGoalsProposalbytheGovernmentsofColombiaandGuatemalaforconsiderationbytheparticipatingcountries; MeetingofthemembercountriesoftheRiodeJaneiroPlatformforActionontheRoadtoJohannesburg2002:LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanin preparation for Rio de Janeiro 2012; Santiago, 79 September 2011; http://www.eclac.org/rio20/noticias/paginas/9/43799/2011613Rio+20 Note_by_the_secretariatRev13008_Prop._Col_Guat.pdf 20 http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.php?page=view&nr=273&type=230&menu=38 21 http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.php?page=view&type=510&nr=42&menu=20

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