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Hydrology, management and rising water vulnerability in the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin
Mukand S. Babel & Shahriar M. Wahid
a a a

Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand Available online: 27 Jun 2011

To cite this article: Mukand S. Babel & Shahriar M. Wahid (2011): Hydrology, management and rising water vulnerability in the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin, Water International, 36:3, 340-356 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2011.584152

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Water International Vol. 36, No. 3, May 2011, 340356

Hydrology, management and rising water vulnerability in the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin
Mukand S. Babel and Shahriar M. Wahid
Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand (Received 13 December 2009, accepted 23 April 2011) A water vulnerability analysis is made of how sensitivity characteristics of the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna (GBM) River basin may affect adaptive capacity. A co-riparian country perspective highlights the importance of local level management actions. Results reveal that vulnerabilities in India and Bangladesh stem from hydrological and ecological factors, but are more linked to poverty and underdevelopment in Nepal. Poor political governance and underinvestment in the water sector add to vulnerability in Bangladesh and Nepal. Overall, Bangladesh is the most sensitive country while Nepal has the least capacity to adapt. Keywords: Water vulnerability; Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River basin; water resources management

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Introduction The GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin (GBM), home to over 600 million people, covers about 1.75 million km2 across ve Asian countries: India, Bangladesh, Nepal, China and Bhutan (Figure 1). The basin is plagued by oods and droughts, sedimentation in the rivers and ood plains, and other environmental and water quality problems. Rapid increases in population and unequal power relationships among the co-riparian countries compound these problems. This paper applies a exible integrative framework to assess water-related vulnerabilities of the GBM basin based on the available knowledge of the eld and full consideration of data availability and related constraints. Focus is on India, Bangladesh and Nepal, where the vulnerabilities are greatest.

Methodology Approach The vulnerability of a system refers to its susceptibility to adverse effects and its ability to cope with them. High vulnerability is the product of high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. Here we use an index method to evaluate vulnerability, overlaying location-specic vulnerability parameters based on system control factors. The functions of the water system both societal (e.g. drinking water supply, irrigation, recreation etc.) and ecological (e.g.

Corresponding author. Email: swahid@gmail.com

ISSN 0250-8060 print/ISSN 1941-1707 online 2011 International Water Resources Association DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2011.584152 http://www.informaworld.com

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Figure 1. The GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) (source: Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO) 2000).

maintenance of aquatic life) are identied from existing policy frameworks, bilateral and multilateral agreements, and strategic management and action plans in the co-riparian countries.

Selection of vulnerability indicators A water systems vulnerability is composed of (negative) sensitivities to change and (positive) coping capacity. Sensitivity to change is based on the hydrological and societal setting of the water system and its ability to render ecological functions. Adaptive capacity is determined by physical, geopolitical and institutional conditions in the basin. A comprehensive set of normative indicators from the international literature, adapted to the GBM co-riparian country situations, is here identied. Indicators are also chosen to measure water quality and the institutional setting related to compliance. Specic categories of indicators chosen are as follows: r Sensitivity: Hydrological: water availability, natural disasters, land under severe water stress, groundwater development and irrigation dependence. Ecological: water quality, environmental compliance, deforestation, industrial pollution and use of fertilizers. Societal: population growth, population density, human development and poverty.

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M.S. Babel and S.M. Wahid r Adaptive capacity: Physical: irrigation water-use efciency, hydropower dependence, access to improved water supply, access to sanitation and gross domestic product generation from water use. Geopolitical and institutional: government effectiveness, political stability, dependence on transboundary water, development assistance for water and pesticide regulation.

The indicators chosen are not exhaustive but allow an integrated view of the hydrological, natural, human, social, governance and physical dimensions of water-related vulnerability.

Evaluation of vulnerability indicators The following factors were considered in selecting indicators: the ability to measure vulnerability characteristics, diversity to capture a variety of attributes and the presence or absence of thresholds. A description of the indicators is provided in Table 1. For indicators that did not have dened thresholds, world mean, world median or world ratio were used as threshold values, following standard practice in the vulnerability literature (e.g., Hamouda et al. 2009, World Economic Forum (WEF) 2002, South Pacic Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 2005). Spatial scale issues were given special attention. This study uses a mix of national and basin levels primarily because processes (e.g., geopolitical) operating at broader national scales affect some of the indicators but contribute signicantly to patterns of vulnerability at the local level. Contentious efforts were made to aggregate data to the national scale to minimize the loss of information and misleading conclusions. Data and information related to key indicator values were obtained from established data banks maintained by international organizations and other published sources (Table 2). In order to ensure consistency while interpreting indicator values of different units or different range, efforts were made to determine whether a value was good or bad. Indicators that were absolute values were standardized for easier interpretation (Hamouda et al. 2009). A cut-off of 5 was used for values that were so high that they could cause graphical distortion when presented in radar diagrams. All standardization operations are shown in Table 3, which also presents the indicators standardized values. The standardized indicator values were aggregated or averaged within the sensitivity (hydrological, ecological and societal) and adaptive capacity (physical, geopolitical and institutional) framework. Strict numerical validity was not as important as the directions of causality related to vulnerability outcomes. Equal weights were assigned among standardized indicators within the same category, as the process of determination of weights can be biased and comparison of the nal results difcult. Results and discussion Water functions and issues Pressure on the water resources of the GBM basin is mounting due to competing demands, in particular in the Ganges, which is the most extensively exploited as it is the lifeline of two of the three most populous states of India: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Silt from the river system has built a large part of Bangladesh itself. Most of Bangladesh is directly dependent

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Table 1. Description of indicators and their relationship to vulnerability. Relationship to vulnerability

3

Indicator description Higher values correspond to lower vulnerability Higher values correspond to greater vulnerability Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability

Water availability: annual freshwater availability of 1700 m per person is taken as the threshold for stressful situation Natural disaster: number of affected per 1 million inhabitants from oods and droughts Land under severe water stress: per cent of the country under severe water stress, i.e. where consumption exceeds 40% of the available water Groundwater development: abstraction as a percentage of groundwater recharge Irrigation dependence: percentage of cultivated areas dependent on irrigation

Higher percentages reect higher vulnerability because (1) irrigation-based agriculture is investment intensive and (2) rain-fed agriculture is generally more efcient Lower values reect greater vulnerability

Higher values reect lower vulnerability Higher percentages reect lower vulnerability Higher values reect greater vulnerability Higher values reect greater vulnerability

Water quality: composite index of ve key variables: dissolved oxygen, pH, phosphorous concentration, nitrogen concentration and electrical conductivity. These variables are in the proximity-to-target form, with 100 indicating the target Environmental compliance: number of ISO 14001-certied companies per US$1 million gross domestic product Deforestation: change in the forest area is the total per cent change in both natural forests and plantations between 2000 and 2005 Industrial pollution: measured in metric tons of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) emissions per km3 of water Use of fertilizers: measures fertilizing nutrients used per unit of agricultural area Population growth: mean annual rate of population growth

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Population density

Human Development Index: measures the average achievements in three basic dimensions of human development: (1) life expectancy at birth; (2) knowledge, as measured by the adult literacy rate (with two-thirds weight) and the combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (with one-third weight); and (3) gross domestic product per capita (US$, purchasing power parity (PPP)) Poverty: percentage of the population living below the national poverty line

Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability due to increased water demands Higher values reect greater vulnerability due to localized stress on water resources Higher values reect lower vulnerability

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Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability

(Continued)

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Table 1. (Continued) Relationship to vulnerability Higher percentages reect lower vulnerability Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability Higher percentages reect lower vulnerability

Indicator description

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Irrigation water use ratio: WRR = IWR/AWW, where WRR is the water requirement ratio for the region; IWR is the total irrigation water requirement; and AWW is the total agricultural water withdrawal Hydropower dependence: ratio of the electricity supplied by hydropower to total electricity production Access to improved water supply: proportion of the population with reasonable access to an adequate amount of safe drinking water (20 l/day and per person as a minimum). Reasonable access to water is dened as the existence of a water supply within the home or within 15 minutes walking distance (or 1000 m). Improved water sources are household connections, public standpipes, a borehole, a protected dug well, a protected spring and rainwater collection Access to sanitation: percentage of the population with access to improved sanitation: connection to a public sewer, connection to septic system, pourush latrine, simple pit latrine, and a ventilated improved pit latrine Gross domestic product generation from water use Higher percentages reect lower vulnerability

Higher value indicates greater development; greater chances to adapt and lower vulnerability Greater negative values reect lower coping capacity and thus higher vulnerability (ranges between 2.5 and 2.5)

Government effectiveness: combines responses on the quality of public service provision, the quality of the bureaucracy, the competence of civil servants, the independence of the civil service from political pressures, and the credibility of the governments commitment to policies. The main focus of this indicator is on inputs required for the government to be able to produce and implement good policies and deliver public goods Political stability: measure perceptions of the likelihood that the government in power will be destabilized or overthrown by possibly unconstitutional and/or violent means, including domestic violence and terrorism Dependence on transboundary water: inow as a percentage of the total water availability Development assistance for water: average Ofcial Development Assistance for water in US$ per capita/year Pesticide regulation: described in text Researchers in research and development: scientists and engineers in research and development per million population

Greater negative values reect lower coping capacity and thus higher vulnerability (ranges between 2.5 and 2.5) Higher percentages reect greater vulnerability. Classication: < 15 no stress; 1525, low stress; 2550 stress; and > 50, high stress Higher per capita development assistance for water reects a greater coping capacity and thus lower vulnerability Higher value reects a greater coping capacity and thus lower vulnerability Higher values reect a greater coping capacity through innovative solutions and a lower vulnerability

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Table 2. Indicator value Threshold < 1700 1992 521,006 33.5 45.4 33.7 80.6 0.22 0.2 0.88 1073 1.4 1.5 0.24 1676 1.6 75.5 0.02 45.5 51.0 0 47.2 72.27 0.03 6.8 0.2 227 1.9 8.8 0.9 414,786 71,274 9029 8678 India Bangladesh Nepal Data source Babel and Wahid (2009) EM-DAT (2008) Esty et al. (2008) GGIS (2004) AQUASTAT (2008) Esty et al. (2008) World Economic Forum (WEF) (2002) FAOSTAT (2005) WEF (2002) Esty et al. (2005)

Indicator values of the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) co-riparian countries.

Indicator

Unit

m per person/year > 235,000 World mean > 25% World mean > 25% > 17.9% World mean 100 < 5.36 World mean < 0.2 World mean > 0.79 World median > 67.5 World median > 1.1% World mean

Affected/million population %

Abstraction/recharge

Water availability Natural disasters Land under severe water stress Groundwater development Irrigation dependence Water quality Environmental compliance

Per cent of land

Index Industry/US$, millions gross domestic product Per cent land Metric tons BOD/m3 water kg/ha cropland

Deforestation Industrial pollution Use of fertilizers Population growth 334 0.619

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Person/km2

1060 0.547

179 0.534

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2007) AQUASTAT (2008) UNDP (2007)
(Continued)

Population density Human development

Index

> 48/km2 World mean < 0.743

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Table 2. Indicator value Threshold 28.6 53.0 5.23 83 33 3.0 2.8 39 35 1.9 85 79 1.85 30.71 40.0 22.0 49.8 30.9 India Bangladesh Nepal Data source UNDP (2007) AQUASTAT (2008) Esty et al. (2005) Babel and Wahid (2009) Esty et al. (2008) Babel and Wahid (2009) 0.97 1.65 91 0.24 3 0.47 0 2.36 6 1.69 13 Kaufmann et al. (2005) Kaufmann et al. (2005) AQUASTAT (2008) World Water Council (WWC) (2006) Esty et al. (2008)

(Continued)

Indicator > 36% World median > 38% World average > 25 < 83% World ratio < 58% World ratio < 8.6 World mean

Unit

Poverty

Per cent of the population %

M.S. Babel and S.M. Wahid

US$/m3

Index <0 > 25 34 < 1.545 World median Twenty-two world targets 0.85

<0

0.11

0.9

Index

US$ per capita/year

Irrigation water use efciency Hydropower dependence Access to improved water supply Access to sanitation Gross domestic product generation from water use Government effectiveness Political stability Dependence on transboundary water Development assistance for water Pesticide regulation

Index

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Table 3. Standardization and standardized values of indicators. Standardized values Indicator Water availability Natural disasters Arid lands Land under severe water stress Groundwater development Irrigation dependence Water quality Environmental compliance Deforestation Industrial pollution Use of fertilizers Population growth Population density Human development Poverty Irrigation water use efciency Hydropower dependence Access to improved water supply Access to sanitation Gross domestic product generation from water use Government effectiveness Political stability Dependence on transboundary water Development assistance for water Pesticide regulation Standardization Standardized (= threshold/value) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= |value| + 1) Reversed and standardized (= threshold/value) Reversed and standardized (= value/|threshold|) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Reversed and standardized (= (1 value)/threshold) Standardized (= value/threshold) Reversed and standardized (= threshold/value) Standardized (= value/threshold) Reversed and standardized [= (100 value)/(100 threshold)] Reversed and standardized [= (100 value)/(100 threshold)] Standardized (= value/threshold) Reversed and standardized (= |value| + 1) Reversed and standardized (= |value| + 1) Standardized (= value/threshold) Reversed and standardized (= threshold /value) Standardized (= |value| + 1) India 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.2 5.0 0.0 1.1 5.0 1.3 5.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.9 1.1 1.9 1.4 5.0 5.0 Bangladesh 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 1.3 5.0 5.0 0.3 5.0 1.5 5.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.9 1.5 3.0 1.9 2.7 3.6 3.3 5.0

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Nepal 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.4 5.0 5.0 0.3 3.4 1.7 3.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 4.4 2.0 3.4 0.2 0.9 1.7

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Note: Standardized values exceeding 1 represent a vulnerable situation.

on the basin waters. Table 4 presents the critical issues associated with the many different uses of water in the basin. Agricultural water use Agriculture is the greatest water-use sector, consuming 89% of total water use in the basin. A population of about 460 million lives in the Indian portion of the basin. According to current estimates, the population of India will double in the next 20 years, creating great

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Table 4. Major functions and issues of water resources in the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM). Functions Agricultural water use Industrial water use Drinking water supply and sanitation Ecosystem functioning Fisheries Hydropower Navigation All functions Critical Issues High seasonal uctuation of availability; deteriorating water quality Water scarcity and consequent untreated industrial wastewater discharge; eroded machinery due to salt build up Organic pollution and arsenic contamination of drinking water sources; effect of ooding and cyclones on water supply and sanitation infrastructure Biodiversity impacts from water pollution; coastal degradation Water pollution and environmental change due to aquaculture and capture sheries Downstream water scarcity may hinder hydropower generation Reduction of ow and river sedimentation Dispute over sharing of transboundary water

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pressure on the water resources because of increased irrigation needs. The overall annual demand in the agriculture sector is estimated to be 230 billion m3 (BCM). In Bangladesh and Nepal, agricultural activities also consume the highest amount of water. Bangladesh withdraws groundwater for irrigation to meet the growing food demand of its crowded population; this has resulted in a lowering of the groundwater table at alarming levels in many parts of the country. In addition to irrigation demand, high economic dependence on agriculture in the basin countries means that large amounts of fertilizers and pesticides are used, polluting the water. The portion of the GBM basin in India alone is estimated to use more than 7 million metric tons of fertilizer. Industrial water use Industry relies on water for all stages of production: as a raw material, solvent, coolant, transport agent and energy source. Although total industrial water use in the GBM countries is minuscule, it will rise with increasing economic growth. Consequent increases in the discharge of heavy metals, solvents, toxic sludge and other wastes may accumulate in the freshwater resources. Inadequate regulation of industrial wastewater discharge has already caused water pollution in the Ganges and its tributaries. Increasing salinity is reported to have eroded machinery and created difculty for industry in southern Bangladesh. Drinking water and sanitation Inadequate drinking water supply and sanitation are the two main problems in the basin. About 97 million people representing 17% of the basin population lack access to improved drinking water, while a staggering 350 million people representing 60% of the population lack access to sanitation. Groundwater is increasingly used in India and Bangladesh for rural domestic water supply, intensifying the depletion of aquifers. Arsenic contamination of groundwater in many parts of the northern states, particularly West Bengal and Bangladesh, has posed a great challenge to drinking water improvement. Furthermore, frequent ooding and cyclones cause water supply and sanitation systems to fail.

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The GBM basin is known for its biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and for their growing threat by increasing population and economic activity. Thirty cities, 70 towns and thousands of villages line the banks of the Ganges in India (Wong et al. 2007), dumping over 1.3 billion litres/day of raw sewage directly into the river, along with thousands of animal carcasses, mainly cattle. Another 260 million litres of industrial wastewater, also largely untreated, are discharged by hundreds of factories, while much of the more than 6 million tonnes of chemical fertilizers and 9000 tonnes of pesticides applied annually within the basin ends up in the river. Habitats are destroyed and endangered species such as the Ganges River dolphin (Platanista gangetica) are placed at risk. Increasing salinity intrusion in the southwest coastal areas of Bangladesh due to reductions in ow from upstream catchments during the dry season has major adverse impacts on the local environment and socioeconomic conditions. Fisheries Despite rapid growth in aquaculture and capture sheries in the last three decades, the sheries sector still has tremendous potential to become an engine for further economic growth, and to provide income, employment and nutritional benets to the poor. Nevertheless, in India biodiversity loss in the wetland ecosystem threatens freshwater sh species, which are threatened by water pollution and environmental change, while in Bangladesh thousands of shers have lost their livelihoods as they lose their shing grounds to agriculture, which has a higher priority in food policy. The 25 new large dams planned or under construction in the basin further endanger sheries in Bangladesh. Hydropower There is considerable potential throughout the basin for hydropower generation. The ow in the Ganges is highly seasonal and heavily inuenced by monsoon rainfall (the proportion of lowest and highest ows is about 1:70). More than 80% of the total rainfall occurs during four monsoon months from June to September. At that time the rivers in the basin swell to the brim and often overow. A portion of the monsoon ows of the Ganges is planned to be captured by large dams in the upstream storage sites in India and Nepal to mitigate ood intensities downstream and signicantly augment dry season ows. In addition, generation of an estimated 30,000 MW of hydropower from the storage dams could ease the energy crisis in the region and create more job opportunities by facilitating rapid industrialization. The tremendous pressure on fuel wood in the region for energy would also reduce and forest resources saved. Upstream storage for dry season release would also improve navigation, check salinity intrusion in the lower deltaic areas and control pollution. Navigation A major problem in the basin is sedimentation due to erosion. These Himalayan rivers are active and more dynamic than those in other parts of the world due to the steep slopes and the geologically young Himalayan mountain system. Deposition of large amounts of sediment results in a severe reduction of the ow capacity and navigability of river channels in the at oodplains and further aggravates ood risk (HKH-HYCOS 2002). In Bangladesh, siltation, together with declines in ows and deteriorating water infrastructure,

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has impacted water transport, which accounts for about 1.2% of the countrys gross domestic product.

Sensitivity Hydrological sensitivity The indicators related to hydrological sensitivity are perhaps most directly related to sources of vulnerability of water resources in a basin. Annual per capita water availability of more than 1700 m3 can be considered adequate to sustain basinwide economic development (Table 5). Nonetheless, about 33% of the land area of the Indian part of the GBM basin is under severe water stress (Table 2 and Figure 2), which is dened as consumption exceeding 40% of the available water, while Indias Brahmaputra sub-basins are largely unexploited. Bangladesh withdraws only 9% of its available water, but its groundwater abstraction exceeds 50% of recharge (Table 2), well beyond the world average of 25% (GGIS 2004). Both India and Bangladesh are subject to droughts and oods (Table 2). Large numbers of poor people who live in poorly constructed houses on lands prone to ooding suffer the most. Although Bangladesh has reduced the impact of ooding through community involvement in planning and risk management, its efforts focus primarily on emergency relief rather than pre-emptive measures to reduce vulnerability.
Table 5. Water availability versus water withdrawal of the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) co-riparian countries. Unit Population density Water availability Water withdrawal Withdrawal-availability Gross domestic product generation from water use pop/km m3 /cap m3 /cap % US$/m3
2

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India 415 1992 570 29 2.98

Bangladesh 901 9029 805 9 2.84

Nepal 176 8678 966 11 1.94

Water availability 3 2 Irrigation Dependence 1 0 Natural disasters

India Bangladesh Nepal Threshold

Groundwater development

Land under severe water stress

Figure 2. Hydrological sensitivities of the GBM co-riparian countries.

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Irrigation represents the largest water user sector throughout the basin. About 45% of the cultivated land in the Bangladeshi GBM basin is irrigated. Any further extension of the irrigated area will increase water stress. A high dependency on groundwater for irrigation in India and Bangladesh also increases vulnerability. Already, excessive withdrawal in Bangladesh has degraded groundwater quality.

Ecological sensitivity Ecological sensitivity is high in all three countries. The use of fertilizers in India and Bangladesh (Figure 3) is among the highest in the world (Esty et al. 2005). Industrial organic pollution is already a serious threat in India with its rapid industrialization. In Bangladesh, expansion of the urban centres will certainly lead to dramatic increases in the human excreta load and solid wastes. Compliance with international industrial environmental standards (ISO 14001) is very poor in all three countries. High rates of deforestation, a major driver for climate change, have been increasing ecological sensitivity in Bangladesh and Nepal.

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Societal sensitivity Societal sensitivity indicators essentially represent the social and human development of the basin. The water-related vulnerability due to societal sensitivities is shown in Figure 4. Population density is very high across the basin, and together with a high incidence of poverty puts enormous pressure on the available water resources. The situation may be most critical in mega-cities (e.g. Delhi and Dhaka) where, as noted, industrial and domestic pollution levels have reached alarmingly high levels. There are hopeful signs. India has succeeded in bringing the population growth rate down to 1.4% per annum. All the basin countries fall into the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2007) medium human development category. This reects considerable progress, but poverty remains a matter of concern, particularly in Bangladesh, where about half of the population lives below the national poverty line.
Water quality 5 4 3 Use of fertilizers 2 1 0 India Bangladesh Nepal Threshold Industrial pollution Deforestation Environmental compliance

Figure 3. Societal sensitivities of the GBM co-riparian countries.

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Population growth 5 4 3 2 1 0

Poverty

Population density Threshold India Bangladesh Nepal

Human development

Figure 4. Ecological sensitivities of the GBM co-riparian countries.

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Adaptive capacity Physical Physical adaptive capacity refers to the level of infrastructure development needed to ensure functioning of an efcient water system. Unfortunately, underinvestment in the water sector is reected in unfavourable indicator values in all three riparian countries (Table 2 and Figure 5). Gross domestic product generation from the use of water is considerably lower than the world mean. India is on the way to meeting its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) regarding access to improved water supply. Although 85% of Bangladeshis have access to safe water supply, sustaining that level of coverage is complicated by arsenic contamination, to which almost half of the population is presently exposed to at levels exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) guideline values. Signicant investments in infrastructure will be required to provide potable water to the expanding urban centres. Bangladesh

Irrigation water use efficiency 5 4 3 GDP generation from water use 2 1 0 Hydropower dependence India Bangladesh Nepal Threshold Access to sanitation Access to improved water supply

Figure 5. Physical coping capacity indicators of the GBM co-riparian countries.

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is behind schedule for achieving the MDGs for sanitation. Infrastructure development in Nepal is weakest. Nepals water supply and sanitation infrastructure is underdeveloped. The country is behind schedule in achieving the MDGs (UNDP 2007). It is highly dependent on hydropower generation. Planned increases in hydropower capacity may decrease Nepals adaptive capacity to cope with water system change, affect the water ow to downstream countries and destroy valuable mountain ecosystems. Geopolitical and institutional Political instability is a serious concern in all riparian countries. Nepals decade-long civil disorder ended recently with a regime change to a democratic system which has signicantly increased its political stability and attracted considerable development assistance. In India, tension among different geopolitical regions impacts political stability at the national level. Long periods of political stability in Bangladesh have been punctuated by unrest which has impaired its water sector investment (Figure 6). Poor governance aggravates vulnerability in all three countries. The higher stability and effectiveness of the Indian regime has helped it attract investment into its water sector even though per capita ofcial development assistance there is low (US$0.24). Bangladesh is less fortunate geographically due to its downstream position, forcing it to rely primarily on transboundary water sources. The degree of regulation of pesticide is adopted to represent institutional capacity to cope with water stress in these predominantly agricultural economies. The indicator encompasses 11 bivalent criteria. The rst two measure whether and to what degree countries have participated in the conventions. Countries receive 2 points if they are a party to the Rotterdam Convention and have designated a national authority for its implementation, 1 point if they are a party but have no national authority, and zero points if they are not a party. For the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, countries receive 2 points if they are a party and have created a national implementation plan (NIP), 1 point if they are a party but have no NIP, and zero points if they are not a party (Esty et al. 2008). The next nine criteria indicate whether countries have banned (for a score of two), restricted (for a score of one), or taken no action (for a score of zero) on regulating

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Government effectiveness 5 4 3 Pesticide regulation 2 1 0 Political stability

India Bangladesh Nepal Threshold

Development assistance for water

Dependence on transboundary water

Figure 6. tries.

Geopolitical and institutional coping capacity indicators of the GBM co-riparian coun-

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nine of the dirty dozen persistent organic pollutants associated with pesticides: aldrin, chlordane, DDT, dieldrin, endrin, heptachlor, hexachlorobenzene, mirex and toxaphene. Country performance is a simple sum of the scores for a maximum possible score of 22. The results indicate that Nepal made considerable progress in this regard, while Bangladesh has not.

Interpretation summary Using equal weights to individual indicators and to each category, the results were aggregated into the categories of indicators to calculate an overall vulnerability index of each of the three countries (Table 6). Equal weights were assigned to standardized indicator values in each category to calculate category totals, and equal weights were assigned to each category to calculate an overall vulnerability index. A value exceeding 1.0 indicates a vulnerable situation. Overall vulnerability of water resources is the highest in Bangladesh (vulnerability index = 2.29), followed by Nepal and India. Bangladesh is also the most sensitive country among the three, while Nepal has the least capacity to adapt. However, the sources of water resource vulnerability are different (Table 6). In India and Bangladesh it stems mainly from geopolitical, institutional and ecological factors, while in Nepal vulnerability is directly related to ecological sensitivity and physical coping capacity. A higher stress on available water resources exists in India due to higher rates of withdrawals. Some of the Indian sub-basins use more than 50% of the potentially available water. In Bangladesh uneven temporal distribution of water and quality deterioration are the main reasons for stress. All three countries suffer from differing levels of political and governance challenges that may increase water vulnerability in the basin.

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Conclusions The GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) represents a complex and unique environmental, political, social and economic landscape exposed to a high risk of waterrelated stressors. A vulnerability assessment with regard to water systems in the basin is
Table 6. Water vulnerability status of the GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) co-riparian countries. Vulnerability statusa Category Sensitivity Hydrological Ecological Societal Adaptive capacity Physical Geopolitical and institutional Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Vulnerability index India 1.62 2.47 1.89 1.42 2.86 2.00 1.94 1.97 Bangladesh 1.38 3.33 2.11 1.30 3.30 2.27 2.31 2.29 Nepal 0.63 3.00 1.74 1.80 1.64 1.79 2.40 2.10

Note: a Values exceeding 1 represent a vulnerable situation.

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required to help decision-makers reach sound solutions to the rising concerns about development in the basin. This paper has presented a comprehensive and easily interpretable assessment of water vulnerability in the basin within a sensitivity-adaptive capacity framework. It adopted an index-based approach that includes representative indicators of sensitivity to environmental change and the basins adaptive capacity to cope with stressors. The indicators themselves were chosen based on the analysis of major functions/uses and issues of water in the basin and grouped to represent hydrological, societal and ecological sensitivities as well as adaptive capacity in terms physical and geopolitical/institutional setting. The data and information necessary to evaluate the indicators were obtained from various internationally recognized data repositories and reports. Arithmetic operations were applied to the indicators values for easier interpretation. Results were interpreted from a country perspective to facilitate local policy and actions. It was observed that the sources of vulnerability of water resources in the three GBM countries are different. Areas that are currently highly productive may be threatened by a combination of water quality degradation and poor environmental compliance. Unfavourable geopolitical position and institutions are another area of concern in all three countries, especially Nepal and Bangladesh. Poor governance and lack of regional interactions amongst countries have often impeded investment and technological advancements that could address the basins water issues and ecological challenges. However, major opportunities exist to exploit generous water endowments in parts of the basin. Irrigation and drainage projects can ensure high efciency (gross domestic product per unit water) and low impact on water resources. Deforestation and soil degradation upstream can be addressed through innovative joint programmes for soil conservation and watershed management (e.g. payment for ecosystem services) to reduce downstream siltation and to help maintain a more regulated ow. Stronger regional water institutions would help address the high dependence on transboundary water in Bangladesh. Enough water exists to meet the societal and environmental needs in the GBM basin. Reducing water vulnerability requires addressing broader issues of poverty, resource distribution, political stability and governance.

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