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May 9, 2012
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 4.1 (8.9) 19.3 4QFY11 222 153 82 % chg (yoy) 28.4 6.4 49.1
`23 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported healthy net profit growth of 49.1% yoy (up 19.3% qoq) to `122cr, which was higher than our estimates on account of higher non interest income and lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us. We remain Neutral on the stock Strong growth in loan book continues: For FY2012, the banks business growth remained above industry levels, with advances growing by 33.1% yoy (8.9% qoq during 4QFY2012) and deposits growing by 22.8% yoy (7.9% qoq during 4QFY2012). Growth in gold loan portfolio for the bank continued to be healthy, registering a 4.6% increase on a sequential basis. The banks low cost deposits as a % of overall deposits dropped to 19.7% on account of NRE deposit rates deregulation. The cost of deposits consequently rose by 17bp qoq, however, the yield on advances of the bank also rose by 20bp (aided by growth in high yielding gold loans), leading to marginal expansion of 5bp qoq in NIMs to 3.1%. The banks employee expenses jumped by 43.4% qoq on account of higher pension provisioning due to actuarial valuations (impact of ~`22cr). The asset quality of the bank deteriorated slightly during 4QFY2012, with slippages increasing to `66cr (annualised slippage ratio of 1.3%) from a quarterly run-rate of ~`35cr. However, the rise in slippages during 4QFY2012 can be primarily attributed to one chunky account (exposure of `50cr to Bharati shipyard). Outlook and valuation: The banks foray into gold loans has yielded positive results and has led to sustainably higher NIMs. The banks asset quality has also held up pretty well inspite of the macro headwinds which have led to higher provisioning expenses for most banks. However, current valuations at 1.1x FY2014E ABV have factored in the positives in our view and are considerably above the valuations of small and mid-sized PSU banks which have similar fundamentals, even after factoring in the robust growth witnessed due to the sharp rise in gold loans. Also, we expect the banks cost of funds to increase going ahead on account of NRE rates de-regulation which could pull down the NIMs for the bank. Hence we maintain our Neutral stance on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 7.6 49.2 43.2
3m (7.6) (14.4)
Key financials
Particulars (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 791 39.2 293 25.1 2.8 2.6 8.8 1.5 1.0 18.5
FY2011 1,022 29.2 402 37.3 2.9 3.5 6.6 1.3 1.1 21.6
FY2012E 1,136 11.2 408 1.6 2.6 3.5 6.5 1.1 0.9 18.7
FY2013E 1,286 13.2 439 7.5 2.5 3.8 6.1 1.0 0.8 17.5
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 994 803 164 26 709 285 83 74 67 9 6 367 204 128 76 163 12 14 (10) 12 (3) 151 29 122 19.1 944 753 161 30 670 273 60 54 47 6 8 333 154 89 65 179 22 3 10 7 3 157 55 102 34.8 5.3 6.7 2.0 (11.2) 5.8 4.1 37.8 35.5 44.8 60.1 (20.2) 10.1 32.2 43.4 16.9 (8.9) (44.4) 390.4 (208.2) 64.3 (221.8) (3.9) (47.3) 19.3 (1572)bp 704 557 132 15 482 222 60 47 41 14 5 282 129 76 53 153 26 (4) 9 6 15 127 45 82 35.5 41.2 44.3 24.2 78.4 47.1 28.4 36.4 57.8 62.4 (35.5) 20.4 30.1 58.3 68.7 43.3 6.4 (53.3) (458.4) (215.7) 94.1 (120.6) 18.9 (36.1) 49.1 (1642)bp
% chg 1.3 19.3 4.9 21.7 (10.6) (52.4) (3.7) (37.0) 10.0
May 9, 2012
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 27,281 36,501 74.7 1,262 5,917 7,179 19.7 14.0 11.5 7.9 12.5 3.1 55.6 25,050 33,834 74.0 1,222 6,058 7,280 21.5 12.0 9.6 7.8 12.3 3.1 46.3 8.9 7.9 70bp 3.3 (2.3) (1.4) (185)bp 197bp 193bp 17bp 20bp 5bp 929bp 20,489 29,721 68.9 1,201 5,203 6,404 21.5 14.0 11.3 6.6 10.9 3.1 45.7 33.1 22.8 580bp 5.1 13.7 12.1 (188)bp (1)bp 27bp 137bp 160bp 4bp 989bp
Cost-to-income ratio
May 9, 2012
Growth in gold loan portfolio for the bank continued to be healthy, registering a 4.6% increase on a sequential basis. Share of gold loans in the overall loan book as of 4QFY2012 stands at c.25%. The management indicated that they would like to maintain the gold loan portfolio at 25-26% levels of the overall loan book and hence would now increase focus on corporate segment as well to drive the banks loan book growth (guidance of ~23-24% growth for FY2013) The cost of deposits of the bank rose by 17bp qoq on back of higher costs due to NRE deposit rates de-regulation. However, the yield on advances of the bank rose by 20bp (aided by growth in high yielding gold loans), leading to NIMs rising by a marginal 5bp qoq to 3.1%
6.8
8.1
6.4
5.4
4.5
7.3
2.4
8.9
7.9
2.0 -
10.1
15.0 12.0
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
May 9, 2012
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 67 9 6 83 74 47 6 8 60 54 44.8 60.1 (20.5) 37.8 35.5 41 14 5 60 47 62.4 (35.5) 13.7 36.4 57.8
May 9, 2012
230 60
236 63
231 58
234 58
267 77
75
60.0 55.0
May 9, 2012
Investment arguments
Strong business growth
The bank grew its advances and deposits at a strong rate of 33.1% and 22.8% yoy, respectively, in FY2012. Gold loan portfolio of the bank has increased at an 60% CAGR over FY200912. The gold loan portfolio (`6,800cr as of 4QFY2012) now constitutes c.25% of the overall loan book. The management indicated that they would like to maintain the gold loan portfolio at 25-26% levels of the overall loan book and hence would now increase focus on corporate segment as well to drive the banks loan book growth (guidance of ~23% growth for FY2013) The banks tier-1 ratio stands at a healthy 11.5% (healthy profit growth and benefits of near zero risk weighting on gold loans) as of 4QFY2012. The bank is planning to raise ~`400cr of equity capital during FY2013, which would further increase the banks tier-I ratio, enabling the bank to achieve its growth targets.
May 9, 2012
In this quarter the bank managed the NIM impact by increasing its yield on advances, however continuing to rely on this strategy going forward is likely to have asset quality implications. Eventually, either on account of decline in NIMs or increase in asset quality pressures, we expect downside risks to the banks ROAs.
Earlier estimates FY2013 18.0 17.0 21.3 2.8 4.5 13.0 13.0 1.4 75.1 FY2014 18.0 18.0 20.4 2.7 14.6 13.0 13.0 1.5 76.4
Revised estimates FY2013 20.0 21.0 18.7 2.6 6.6 13.0 13.0 1.1 71.0 FY2014 20.0 20.0 17.6 2.5 17.6 13.0 13.0 1.3 69.2
Earlier estimates
1,124 244 1,368 656 711 98 613 199 414
FY2013 FY2014 Revised Earlier Revised Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates
1,136 263 1,399 698 701 97 604 196 408 1.1 7.9 2.3 6.3 (1.4) (1.2) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) 1,277 280 1,557 742 815 156 658 214 445 1,286 310 1,596 788 807 158 649 211 439 0.7 10.7 2.5 6.3 (0.9) 1.2 (1.4) (1.4) (1.4)
May 9, 2012
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
May 9, 2012
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
May 9, 2012
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Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. and Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 394 7.2 143 17.3 537 9.7 248 13.4 289 6.8 57 (54.0) 232 58.3 80 34.6 152 45.6 FY09 523 32.7 164 15.2 687 28.0 328 32.4 359 24.3 57 0.7 301 30.0 107 35.4 195 28.4 FY10 568 8.7 208 26.9 777 13.0 366 11.5 411 14.5 43 (24.5) 367 21.9 134 36.4 234 20.0 FY11 791 39.2 197 (5.6) 988 27.2 463 26.3 525 27.9 80 84.4 446 21.3 153 34.3 293 25.1 FY12E 1,022 29.2 247 25.6 1,269 28.5 617 33.5 652 24.0 79 (0.7) 572 28.5 171 29.8 402 37.3 FY13E 1,136 11.2 263 6.6 1,399 10.3 698 13.0 701 7.7 97 22.8 604 5.6 196 32.4 408 1.6 FY14E 1,286 13.2 310 17.6 1,596 14.1 788 13.0 807 15.1 158 62.6 649 7.5 211 32.4 439 7.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 90 1,071 23.8 28 155 590 974 729 4,572 32.0 113 249 25.2 FY09 113 1,191 19.4 257 155 571 998 1,038 6,075 13.3 136 284 19.2 FY10 113 1,372 27.2 1 330 706 1,391 597 7,156 33.6 153 415 25.3 FY11 113 1,734 29.2 25 265 962 1,828 638 8,924 29.5 357 585 28.5 FY12E 116 2,054 22.8 31 557 1,111 1,572 1,069 9,400 33.1 378 671 23.0 FY13E 116 2,374 44,166 21.0 38 674 1,318 48,686 1,767 1,289 11,629 32,737 20.0 455 810 48,686 20.6 FY14E 116 2,719 52,999 20.0 45 809 1,608 58,295 2,120 1,543 13,833 39,284 20.0 545 970 58,295 19.7
May 9, 2012
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Ratio Analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA ratio Credit/Deposit ratio Net worth/ Assets CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages NPA prov / avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 16.6 16.4 2.8 0.3 2.5 0.2 2.7 0.7 3.4 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 15.4 16.0 2.5 0.2 2.3 0.3 2.6 0.6 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.0 16.7 17.0 2.7 0.3 2.4 0.1 2.6 0.5 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 18.4 18.5 2.8 0.2 2.6 0.1 2.7 0.6 3.3 1.7 1.6 0.5 1.1 19.7 21.6 2.6 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.6 2.9 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.9 20.4 18.7 2.4 0.3 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.6 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.8 21.3 17.5 13.9 1.8 1.3 13.5 2.2 1.3 11.3 1.8 1.7 9.0 1.6 2.1 6.8 1.4 2.6 6.7 1.2 2.8 6.2 1.1 3.0 1.7 12.6 0.3 1.7 10.8 0.3 2.1 12.9 0.4 2.6 15.0 0.5 3.5 17.3 0.6 3.5 20.0 0.7 3.8 21.5 0.7 1.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 82.0 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.1 48.4 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2 70.8 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 73.9 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 71.4 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.1 71.0 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.2 69.2 24.1 69.0 16.6 13.8 12.1 23.8 65.5 15.4 14.8 13.2 23.1 68.8 16.7 15.4 12.4 21.5 68.9 18.4 14.0 11.3 19.7 74.7 19.7 13.0 10.1 18.7 74.1 20.4 12.5 9.7 17.6 74.1 21.3 12.0 9.3 2.6 46.2 1.0 16.4 2.9 47.8 1.0 16.0 2.5 47.1 1.0 17.0 2.8 46.8 1.0 18.5 2.9 48.6 1.1 21.6 2.6 49.9 0.9 18.7 2.5 49.4 0.8 17.5 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
May 9, 2012
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
May 9, 2012
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