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Indrani Shakya (Rajbhandari) [4002166718] USQ Sydney Education Centre L-1 29-35 Bellevue Street Surry Hills Sydney NSW 2010

CMA feedback
Processed: Fri May 22 14:55:14 EST 2009

STUDENT: COURSE: ASSESSMENT:

0050091119 FIN5003 86167-2290-1

Indrani Shakya (Rajbhandari) [4002166718] Decision Support Tools CMA ASSIGNMENT

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CMA test summary Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Response (1) (2) (1) (1) (2) (1) (2) (2) (4) (1) (3) (1) (1) (1) (4) 5.5 0.61 -1.7019 (1) 3223.81 59.69 16 0.3446 [12.1155, 12.1645] 1.9216 27.4254 190.7649 -0.3731 1 (1) (4) Judged Mark 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
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32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

0.10 0.3913 (1) 0.464 68.683 (4) 0.425 0.366 0.603

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Correct = 36 Incorrect = 4 Not answered = 0 Your mark = 36.0 out of a possible 40.0, which is 90%. This test's contribution to your total percentage for this unit is 36% out of a possible 40%.

Question 1

True or False: Whether the university is private or public is an example of a nominal scaled variable. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

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Question 2

TABLE 2-5 The following are the durations in minutes of a sample of long-distance phone calls made within the continental United States reported by one long-distance carrier. Time (in minutes) 0 but less than 5 5 but less than 10 0.37 0.22 Relative Frequency

10 but less than 15 0.15 15 but less than 20 0.10 20 but less than 25 0.07 25 but less than 30 0.07 30 or more 0.02

Referring to Table 2-5, if 100 calls were sampled, __________ of them would have lasted less than 15 minutes. (1) 26 (2) 74 (3) 10 (4) None of the above. Correct.

Question 3

According to the empirical rule, if the data form a bell-shaped normal distribution, __________ percent of the observations will be contained within 1 standard deviation around the arithmetic mean. (1) 68.26 (2) 75.00 (3) 88.89 (4) 93.75

Correct.

Question 4

True or False: As a general rule, an observation is considered an extreme value if its Z score is less than 3. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

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Question 5

The owner of a fish market determined that the average weight for a catfish is 3.2 pounds with a standard deviation of 0.8 pound. A citation catfish should be one of the top 2% in weight. Assuming the weights of catfish are normally distributed, at what weight (in pounds) should the citation designation be established? (1) 1.56 pounds (2) 4.84 pounds (3) 5.20 pounds (4) 7.36 pounds

Correct.

Question 6

True or False: The probability that a standard normal random variable, Z, is between 1.50 and 2.10 is the same as the probability Z is between 2.10 and 1.50. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

Question 7

Why is the Central Limit Theorem so important to the study of sampling distributions? (1) It allows us to disregard the size of the sample selected when the population is not normal. (2) It allows us to disregard the shape of the sampling distribution when the size of the population is large. (3) It allows us to disregard the size of the population we are sampling from. (4) It allows us to disregard the shape of the population when n is large.

The correct answer is:

It allows us to disregard the shape of the population when n is large.

Question 8

True or False: As the sample size increases, the standard error of the mean increases. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

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Question 9

It is desired to estimate the average total compensation of CEOs in the Service industry. Data were randomly collected from 18 CEOs and the 97% confidence interval was calculated to be ($2,181,260, $5,836,180). Based on the interval above, do you believe the average total compensation of CEOs in the Service industry is more than $3,000,000? (1) Yes, and I am 97% confident of it. (2) Yes, and I am 78% confident of it. (3) I am 97% confident that the average compensation is $3,000,000. (4) I cannot conclude that the average exceeds $3,000,000 at the 97% confidence level.

Correct.

Question 10

True or False: The t distribution is used to construct confidence intervals for the population mean when the population standard deviation is unknown. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

Question 11

A manager of the credit department for an oil company would like to determine whether the average monthly balance of credit card holders is equal to $75. An auditor selects a random sample of 100 accounts and finds that the average owed is $83.40 with a sample standard deviation of $23.65. If you wanted to test whether the auditor should conclude that there is evidence that the average balance is different from $75, which test would you use? (1) Z-test of a population mean (2) Z-test of a population proportion (3) t-test of a population mean (4) t-test of a population proportion

Correct.

Question 12

True of False: A sample is used to obtain a 95% confidence interval for the mean of a population. The confidence interval goes from 15 to 19. If the same sample had been used to test the null hypothesis that the mean of the population is equal to 18 versus the alternative hypothesis that the mean of the population differs from 18, the null hypothesis could be rejected at a level of significance of 0.05. (1) True (2) False

The correct answer is:

False

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Question 13

The Y-intercept (b0) represents the (1) predicted value of Y when X = 0. (2) change in estimated average Y per unit change in X. (3) predicted value of Y. (4) variation around the sample regression line.

Correct.

Question 14

True of False: If a time series does not exhibit a long-term trend, the method of exponential smoothing may be used to obtain short-term predictions about the future. (1) True (2) False

Correct.

Question 15

Blossoms Flowers purchases roses for sale for Valentines Day. The roses are purchased for $10 a dozen and are sold for $20 a dozen. Any roses not sold on Valentines Day can be sold for $5 per dozen. The owner will purchase 1 of 3 amounts of roses for Valentines Day: 100, 200, or 400 dozen roses. Given 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4 are the probabilities for the sale of 100, 200, or 400 dozen roses, respectively, then the optimal EMV for buying roses is (1) $700 (2) $900 (3) $1,700 (4) $1,900

Correct.

Question 16

What is the interquartile range (midspread) for this data __________? Answer should be between one or two decimal places e.g. 10.1, 10.2 etc. Please do not include units (grams) in your answer.

Correct. Placing the data in ascending order (or descending) as follows: 10 18 18 19 19 20 20 22 22 24 24 25 30

We can derive Q1 = 18.5 (average of 3rd and 4th observations) and Q3 = 24 (average of 10th and 11th observation). Therefore IQR = 24 18.5 = 5.5. Note that we cannot round this value to 6.0 as that is incorrect and gives the impression that the spread is larger than it actually is. The actual interquartile range is 5.5 and should be reported as such.

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Question 17

Given that a randomly selected cellular call is one that has interference, what is the probability it came from company A? Answer should be between two and four decimal places e.g. 0.12, 0.123, 0.1234 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 0.61. Refer to following table which follows the format listed in Appendix 1 of Module 4 in your study book with P(A1) representing company As cellular market share and P(A2) representing company Bs share. The Conditional probabilities are listed for cellular calls that have interference. Event A1 A2 Totals 0.70 0.30 Prior Conditional 0.02 0.03 0.0140 0.0090 0.0230 Joint 0.39 Posterior 0.61*

The posterior probability of 0.61 represents given that the call has interference, the probability it came from company A.

Question 18

The value of the test statistic in this problem is approximately equal to __________? Answer should be between two and four decimal places e.g. 1.23, 1.234, 1.2345 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. t value = 1.70193 Mean = 1.6 Sample std deviation = 0.91025899 Hence t = (1.6 2) (0.9103 divided by square root of 15) = 1.702

Question 19

What would be your decision if a hypothesis test was conducted on this problem with the null hypothesis given as H0 : 2 and the alternate hypothesis given as H1 < 2? (1) Reject H0 at the 10%, 5% and 1% level of significance. (2) Reject H0 at the 10% and 5% level of significance but do not reject H0 at the 1% level of significance. (3) Reject H0 at the 10% level of significance but do not reject H0 at the 5% or 1% level of significance. (4) Do not reject H0 at either the 10%, 5% or 1% level of significance.

Incorrect. Critical values (using your t tables) for a one tailed text to the left with n 1 or 15 1 = 14 degrees of freedom are 1.3450 at 10% level of significance, 1.7613 at 5% level of significance and 2.6245 at 1% level of significance. Thus, we would reject H0 if our t value is less than these corresponding critical values. Since 1.702 is less than the critical value for 10% but not the 5% or 1% level, our answer is (3).

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Question 20

Using a three period moving average (i.e. MA(3)) as a forecasting method, what is the MSE for this forecasting model? Answer should be between two and four decimal places e.g. 1.23, 1.234, 1.2345 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 3223.81 Refer following table with MSE = 22566.67 7 = 3223.81
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales 440 480 590 400 500 550 470 500 600 520 Smoothed Forecasts value 503.33 490.00 496.67 483.33 506.67 506.67 523.33 540.00 Errors Errors^2 Absolute error MAPD

503.33 490.00 496.67 483.33 506.67 506.67 523.33 540.00

-103.33 10.00 53.33 -13.33 -6.67 93.33 -3.33

10677.78 100.00 2844.44 177.78 44.44 8711.11 11.11

103.33 10.00 53.33 13.33 6.67 93.33 3.33

0.258333 0.020000 0.096970 0.028369 0.013333 0.155556 0.006410

Sum MAPE MAD MSE

30.00 0.082710 40.48 3223.81

22566.67

283.33

0.578971

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Question 21

Using simple exponential smoothing (with a smoothing constant of 0.2) as a forecasting method, what is the MAD for this forecast model? Answer should be between two and four decimal places e.g. 1.23, 1.234, 1.2345 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 59.69 Refer following table with MAD = 537.19 9 = 59.69
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales 440 480 590 400 500 550 470 500 600 520 Smoothed Forecasts value 440.00 448.00 440.00 476.40 448.00 461.12 476.40 468.90 461.12 485.12 468.90 482.09 485.12 485.67 482.09 508.54 485.67 510.83 508.54 510.83 Errors 40.00 142.00 -76.40 38.88 81.10 -15.12 17.91 114.33 11.46 Errors^2 1600.00 20164.00 5836.96 1511.65 6577.86 228.52 320.64 13070.26 131.34 Absolute error 40.00 142.00 76.40 38.88 81.10 15.12 17.91 114.33 11.46 MAPD 0.083333 0.240678 0.191000 0.077760 0.147462 0.032163 0.035813 0.190542 0.022039

Sum MAPE MAD MSE

354.16 0.113421 59.69 5493.47

49441.23

537.19

1.020791

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Question 22

If a frequency distribution for the defects data is constructed, using 0 but less than 5 as the first class, what would be the relative frequency of the 10 but less than 15 class __________%? Answer should be a percentage value to whole numbers e.g. 12, 23, 34 etc. Please do NOT include units (%) in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is any one of the following:


16 0.16

Refer the following table with answer listed by asterisk. Note that the question asked for RELATIVE frequency not frequency, hence the answer 4 is not what the question asked (nor is this value a percentage) Class 0 but less than 5 5 but less than 10 10 but less than 15 15 but less than 20 20 but less than 25 25 but less than 30 4 5 4 1 5 6 Frequency Relative frequency 0.16 0.20 0.16 * 0.04 0.20 0.24 Cumulative relative frequency 0.16 0.36 0.52 0.56 0.76 1.00

Question 23

What is the probability that the sample mean will be more than 48 minutes __________? Answer should be to four decimal places which is consistent with the number of decimal places listed in your appendix tables e.g. 0.1234 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Incorrect. The correct answer is 0.6554 Note that this problem has a sample size of 64 which must be incorporated into our Z calculations (refer equation 7.4 of Levine et al. 5th edn on p. 266). Thus Z = 48 50 40 64 = 0.40. Therefore P(Z > 0.40) = 1 0.3446 = 0.6554. If you ignored the sample size, you would have derived a Z value of 0.05 leading to an area of 0.5199 for this question.

Question 24

What are the two limits of the confidence interval __________ and __________? Answer should be to four decimal places e.g. 1.2345 and 2.3456. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The confidence interval ranges from 12.14 1.96 0.15 144 i.e. the range is from a minimum of 12.1155 to a maximum of 12.1645.

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Question 25

What is the least squares estimate of the slope? Answer should be to four decimal places e.g. 1.2345. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 1.9216 (i.e. 1921.60). The Excel printout for this problem is presented below with Amount of Life Insurance being the dependant variable (Y) and Income the independent variable (X). For those who undertook this problem by hand, the following will allow you to check your results: X = 820, Y = 1850, XY = 162000, X2 = 72600, Y2 = 364500, n = 10, Mean of X = 82, Mean of Y = 185. Coefficients Intercept Income 27.42537313 1.921641791 Standard error t Stat 20.3963011 0.239377377 1.344624841 8.027666662 P-value 0.215623014 4.2596E-05

Question 26

What is the least squares estimate of the Y intercept? Answer should be to four decimal places e.g. 1.2345. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 27.4254 (i.e. 27,425.40). The Excel printout for this problem is presented below with Amount of Life Insurance being the dependant variable (Y) and Income the independent variable (X). For those who undertook this problem by hand, the following will allow you to check your results: X = 820, Y = 1850, XY = 162000, X2 = 72600, Y2 = 364500, n = 10, Mean of X = 82, Mean of Y = 185. Coefficients Intercept Income 27.42537313 1.921641791 Standard error t Stat 20.3963011 0.239377377 1.344624841 8.027666662 P-value 0.215623014 4.2596E-05

Question 27

What is the prediction for the amount of life insurance for a family whose income is $85,000? Answer should be to four decimal places and be consistent with your original data set, e.g. if your answer was $75,410.90, you would enter 75.4109 as your answer. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. To predict when X = 85, Y = 27.4254 + 1.9216 ( 85 ) 190.7614 This is $190,761.40.

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Question 28

What would be the residual (error) term for a family income of $90,000? Answer should be to four decimal places and be consistent with your original data set e.g. if your answer was $940.90, you would enter 0.9409. If your answer was $9,400.90, you would enter 9.4009 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 0.3694 or 0.3694, i.e. 369.40 or 369.40. To calculate the error term, we need to know the actual value and predicted value of Y when X = 90. Looking at your original table, when X = 90 the actual Y was 200. The predicted Y becomes Y = 27.4254 + 1.9216 (90) = 200.3694. Hence the error term becomes 200 200.3694 = 0.3694 (0.37). Some students may have noticed that we can derive a listing of all error terms by selecting the residuals check box from the regression dialog box in Excel (the answer is the same at 2 decimal places).

Question 29

What is the opportunity loss for a General Distribution for a Modest level of success? Answer should be to whole numbers only. You do not need to put any units in your answer.

Correct. The opportunity loss for a general distribution release for a modest level of success is 1 as the alternative action yields a higher return (9 compared to 8) resulting in an opportunity loss of 1.

Question 30

What would the optimal action be for International before running the sneak preview? (1) Run a limited release with an expected payoff of $7.20m (2) Run a limited release with an expected payoff of $6.20m (3) Run a general distribution with an expected payoff of $7.20m (4) Run a general distribution with an expected payoff of $6.20m

Correct. E(Limited release) = 22 0.3 + 9 0.4 10 0.3 = $7.20m E(General distribution) = 12 0.3 + 8 0.4 2 0.3 = $6.20m Thus, optimal action under uncertainty is Limited release with expected payoff of $7.20m

Question 31

What is the maximum amount of money that International would be prepared to pay for an absolutely reliable forecast of the movies level of success? (1) $9.6m (2) $7.2m (3) $6.2m (4) $2.4m

Correct. EVPI = [ 22 0.3 + 9 0.4 2 0.3 ] [ 7.20 ] = $2.40m Hence, we would be prepared to pay $2.4m for perfect information or for an absolutely reliable forecast.

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Question 32

What would be the joint probability for a modest success and good preview given that in the past, it was found that 25% of all modest successes were rated good? Answer should be to two decimal places e.g. 0.12, 0.23, etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The joint probability table is shown below with I1 = sneak preview is good and I2 = sneak preview is excellent: (the required answer is shown with an asterisk) S1 0.3 I1 I2 Total 0.3 0.1 = 0.03 0.3 0.9 = 0.27 0.3 S2 0.4 0.4 0.25 = 0.1* 0.4 0.75 = 0.3 0.4 S3 0.3 0.3 0.6 = 0.18 0.3 0.4 = 0.12 0.3 0.69 1.00 0.31 Total

Question 33

What is the posterior probability of a smash success given the sneak preview indicates excellent? Answer should be to four decimal places e.g. 0.1234, 0.2345 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. The correct answer is 0.3913. The following posterior probabilities are derived from the joint probability table (the required answer is shown with an asterisk): P( Smash success / sneak preview indicates good ) = 0.03 0.31 = 0.0968 P( Modest success / sneak preview indicates good ) = 0.1 0.31 = 0.3226 P( Bomb / sneak preview indicates good ) = 0.18 0.31 = 0.5806 P( Smash success / sneak preview indicates excellent ) = 0.27 /0.69 = 0.3913* P( Modest success / sneak preview indicates excellent ) = 0.3 0.69 = 0.4348 P( Bomb / sneak preview indicates excellent ) = 0.12 0.69 = 0.1739 The total probability of a good preview is P(I1) = 0.31 and the total probability of an excellent preview is 0.69.

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Question 34

What is the maximum amount that should be paid for the sneak preview (i.e. what would be the expected value of sample information (EVSI))? Select the closest correct answer. Use four decimal places in your calculations but you can round off the final answer to 2 decimal places.) (1) $1.04 million (2) $2.58 million (3) $7.2 million (4) $8.24 million

Correct. The correct answer is $1.04 million. Refer to the EVSI diagram below.
EVSI tree diagram Limited .0968 .3226 .5806 .0968 .3226 .5806 .3913 .4348 Limited 22 9 -10 12 8 -2 22 9 -10 12 8 -2 .3 .4 Limited 22 9 -10 12 8 -2

-0.773 2.5812

Preview good 0.31

General

2.5812

8.24
Sneak Preview Preview excellent 0.69

10.7828

.1739 .3913

10.7828
General

7.8262

.4348 .1739

No Sneak Preview

7.2

.3 .3 .4

7.2
General EVSI = 8.24- 7.2 = 1.04

6.2

.3

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Question 35

What is the centred moving average that would correspond to Quarter 1 in 2006? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and be to three decimal places e.g. 0.123, 0.456 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. Excel printout shown below with answer shown next to Q1 2006. Year 2004 1 2 3 4 2005 5 6 7 8 2006 9 10 11 12 2007 13 14 15 16 2008 17 18 19 20 Time 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Quarter Occupancy MA(24) rate 0.261 0.302 0.502 0.568 0.295 0.324 0.568 0.615 0.312 0.345 0.598 0.698 0.362 0.388 0.696 0.738 0.396 0.418 0.782 0.802 0.413 0.420 0.431 0.445 0.453 0.457 0.464 * 0.478 0.495 0.506 0.524 0.541 0.550 0.558 0.573 0.592

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Question 36

What is the adjusted seasonal index for Quarter 1 __________%? Answer should be listed to three decimal places in the form 0.123 i.e. 0.123 represents 12.3%, 1.234 represents 123.4% etc. Please do NOT include the units (%) in your answer.

Correct. Table of unadjusted and adjusted seasonal indices presented below in excel format (answer listed under Quarter 1 column as adjusted seasonal index). Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Average Adjusted 0.685 0.673 0.691 0.691 2.741 0.685 0.687* 0.729 0.722 0.717 0.707 2.875 0.719 0.720 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 1.217 1.255 1.209 1.265 0.000 4.946 1.237 1.240 Quarter 4 1.354 1.345 1.379 1.322 0.000 5.400 1.350 1.353 15.961 3.990 4.000 Totals

Correction factor 4 3.990 = 1.0025

Sum of Corrected = 4.00 Our seasonal indices clearly show that Quarters 3 and 4 have a relative weighting more than the average whereas the remaining quarters indicate a weighting less than the average. This would indicate that occupancy rate is obviously much higher in the tourist season which comprises the third and fourth quarters. The specific meaning of each index can be illustrated as follows: The corrected index for quarter 1 represents an occupancy rate which is approx 31.3% below the yearly average whereas the corrected index for Quarter 3 is approx 24% above the yearly average.

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Question 37

The trend line for this decomposition model was calculated to be Y = 0.36806 + 0.01195 T (where T represents time). What would be the coefficient of determination (R2) for this trend line? (Select the closest correct answer.) (1) 0.2973 (i.e. 29.73%) (2) 0.5452 (i.e. 54.52%) (3) 0.7165 (i.e. 71.65%) (4) 0.9886 (i.e. 98.86%)

Correct. Our trend equation is estimated to be Y = 0.36806 + 0.01195 T. Complete regression printout is presented below: Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0.994286339 0.988605323 0.987791418 0.006323483 16 Coefficients Intercept X Variable 1 0.368058456 0.011952022 Standard error t Stat 0.0039326 0.000342939 93.59163236 34.85174154 P-value 5.52273E-21 5.2507E-15

Note that our trend equation is based on 16 observations as our dependent variable was our centred moving averages and our time variable was from t = 3 to t = 18. This trend equation has performed exceptionally well with an R2 of 98.86%. If we examine the plot of the original data over time (presented below), the reason is clear. There is a very clear noticeable trend and our equation is reflecting this fact.
Occupancy rate 0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

NOTE* If we used the original data to generate our trend line (i.e. using our original data as our dependent variable and time from t = 1 to t = 20 as our independent variable), we would be using a series that seasonal influences mixed up in them and, as such, our trend line would worse. This trend line will be Y = 0.32442 + 0.01658 T (with a R2 of 29.73%). In this case our coefficient of T is biased by seasonal influences.

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Question 38

What would be the forecast in Quarter 1, 2009 using the trend line given previously (recall that to three decimal places it was Y = 0.368 + 0.012 T) and the relevant adjusted seasonal index? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and be to three decimal places e.g. 0.123, 0.456 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. Our forecasts for the next 12 months are listed below. Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 (0.368 + 0.012 21) 0.687 (0.368 + 0.012 22) 0.720 (0.368 + 0.012 23) 1.240 (0.368 + 0.012 24) 1.353 = 0.426* = 0.455 = 0.798 = 0.888

Note on all forecasts derived. While we should calculate some of the measures of forecasting accuracy to see how well our model has performed (measures such as MSE, MAE, MAPE ) these are of limited value since, by themselves, these measures convey little information. What we require is an alternative forecasting model to compare the resulting MSE, MAE, MAPE with our decomposition model to see which model has performed the best in terms of forecasting accuracy. Notwithstanding the above points, the high R2 associated with our trend equation would lead us to have some confidence in the final performance of our multiplicative decomposition model.

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Question 39

If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the smoothed value for Quarter 4 in 2004 would be? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and be to three decimal places e.g. 0.123, 0.456 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. Refer to the following Excel table: Year 2004 1 2 3 4 2005 5 6 7 8 2006 9 10 11 12 2007 13 14 15 16 2008 17 18 19 20 Time 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Quarter Occupancy rate 0.261 0.302 0.502 0.568 0.295 0.324 0.568 0.615 0.312 0.345 0.598 0.698 0.362 0.388 0.696 0.738 0.396 0.418 0.782 0.802 W = 0.2 0.261 0.269 0.316 0.366 * 0.352 0.346 0.391 0.436 0.411 0.398 0.438 0.490 0.464 0.449 0.498 0.546 0.516 0.497 0.554 0.603

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Question 40

If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the forecast for Quarter 1 2009 would be? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and be to three decimal places e.g. 0.123, 0.456 etc. Please do NOT include any units in your answer.

Correct. For the exponential smoothing answers please refer to following Excel original table. The forecast for Q1, 2009 is the last smoothed value available (i.e. the smoothed value for Q4, 2008). Year 2004 1 2 3 4 2005 5 6 7 8 2006 9 10 11 12 2007 13 14 15 16 2008 17 18 19 20 Time 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Quarter Occupancy rate 0.261 0.302 0.502 0.568 0.295 0.324 0.568 0.615 0.312 0.345 0.598 0.698 0.362 0.388 0.696 0.738 0.396 0.418 0.782 0.802 W = 0.2 0.261 0.269 0.316 0.366 0.352 0.346 0.391 0.436 0.411 0.398 0.438 0.490 0.464 0.449 0.498 0.546 0.516 0.497 0.554 0.603 *

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