euro Fuzzy Modelling of Basic Oxygen Furnace and its comparison with eural etwork and GR Models

M.V.V.N. Sriram1, N. K. Singh1, G.Rajaraman 2

1

Department of Mechanical Engg. & Mining Machinery Engg, Indian School of Mines. Dhanbad, India 2 Quality Assurance and Technology Development, Visakhapatnam Steel Plant, Visakhapatnam,India (malladisriram@ismu.ac.in) BOF process. As a result of the application of the proposed modeling, acceptable levels of compatibility were achieved compared to the empirical BOF data in an integrated steel plant at Turkey. Bigeev and Baitman [2] adopted different intelligent method to describe the BOF steelmaking process. Although artificial intelligence model give a better result than conventional methods, it limits the model precision due to high dimensionality. Szekely [3] discussed the necessity to simplify the input variables to reduce the complexity and improve the generalization capability of the model. At present, adaptive neuro fuzzy modeling technique has been used in BOF steelmaking process to establish model to predict end point carbon content of metal from important process variables. Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) yield superior and faster results, without the use of accurate mathematical model of the plant and work well for complex non-linear multi-dimensional system. FLC are based on the fuzzy set and fuzzy logic theory originally advocated by Lotfi A. Zadeh [4]. The fuzzy control is adaptive in nature and gives robust performance. The main design problem lies in the determination of the consistent and complete rule set and the shape of the membership functions. A lot of modifications, trial and error have to be carried out to obtain the desired response, which is time consuming. Neuro-Fuzzy software tools work as an intelligent assistant to the design. It helps to generate and optimise membership functions as well as the rule base from the simple data provided. Combining the learning power of neural network with knowledge representation of fuzzy logic gives advantage to Neuro-Fuzzy system. This paper presents the design and simulation of FLC using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB [5]. The tuning of fuzzy inference system is carried out by back propagation algorithm based on collection of input-output data of BOF process at Vishakhapatnam steel plant, Vishakhapatnam, A.P, India. ANFIS has provided a new method for solving the problem of prediction and control of end point carbon content of complex BOF process. II. BASIC OXYGEN STEELMAKING PROCESS Basic oxygen furnace steel making process is one of the key processes in steel industry. Basic oxygen furnace is widely preferred and effective steel making method due to its higher productivity and low production cost. The basic oxygen furnace is a steel shell lined with refractory materials. The body is slightly cylindrical, open at the top to receive raw materials and the oxygen lance which is

Abstract - The primary objective of steelmaking through Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) process is to achieve desired end point carbon content, temperature and percentage composition at the lowest cost and in the shortest possible time. As of now, most widely used models for prediction of parameters of converter steelmaking are mechanistic model, statistical model and neural network model for the prediction of the end point carbon content and temperature from BOF process parameters with reasonable accuracy. The (BOF) process is a widely preferred and effective steelmaking process due to its higher productivity and low production cost. The process of converter steel making is complicated and not completely understood as it involves multiphase physical chemical reaction at high temperature. Obtaining molten steel of desired chemical composition is the objective of the process. Obviously, in the converter steel making , the end point carbon content and temperature of the molten steel are important controlling parameters to ascertain whether the molten steel of desired quality is achieved or not. In the present paper, the authors have made an attempt to develop model for end point carbon and temperature with the latest methodology i.e., Adaptive eural Fuzzy Inference System (A FIS) and then have brought out the comparison of the results achieved in eural etwork and GR models. Results from A FIS model predict more accurately in contrast to those from BP model vis--vis the measured carbon content and temperature. Keywords - BOF, End point temperature, End point carbon, predictive model, A FIS, GR , BP .

I.

INTRODUCTION

BOF steelmaking is a very important during steel production process. The process is very complex due to harsh environment and high temperature during the steel making process. The endpoint carbon content and temperature of the molten steel are the parameters to be checked up whether the molten steel is of desirable quality or not. The carbon content and temperature are the main controls in steel melting process. The widely used modelling approaches for BOF process include mechanistic models, statistical models while neural network models to a certain extent. The existing control models based on oxygen balance and thermal equilibrium theory are achieved on the condition of certain hypotheses, so it can not reflect the relationship between the components produced and endpoint carbon content and temperature for steel making. With these methods, more than 50% of the heats have to be re-blown to achieve the desired end conditions. This involves loss of production and extra raw material cost. Kubat et al. [1] proposed a fuzzy modelling approach for the control of

978-1-4244-5967-4/10/$26.00 2010 IEEE

then hooded to collect and guide the waste gases into extensive air-treatment facilities. The entire converter/furnace is supported on horizontal trunnions, for tilting to either side. The BOF steel making is a complex physico chemical process. The principal raw material used in the converter is molten pig iron from a blast furnace. Besides Hot metal, steel scrap, fluxes such as the calcined lime or Dolomite form the part of the charge to the converter. 99.5% pure Oxygen at 15-16 kg/cm2 pressure is blown into the converter through an oxygen lance having convergent divergent copper nozzles at the blowing end. Oxygen oxidizes the impurities such as carbon, phosphorus, manganese etc. present in the hot metal which are fixed as slag with basic fluxes such as lime. During the process heat is generated by exothermic reaction of the oxidation of the metalloids viz silicon, manganese, phosphorus and carbon and temperature to 1700C enabling refining and slag formation. The three most important reactions in the process are: [C]+ O2 CO [C] + [O] CO CO + O2 CO2 (a) (b) (c)

III. NEURAL NETWORKS Data based modeling like regular regression and non linear regression, polynomial type models, neural networks, radial basis networks, wavelet networks and fuzzy models is suitable for development of models for process control and design of soft sensors where the correlation between inputs and outputs is important. Neural network approach is an alternate and well suited for highly complex non-linear process modeling that are difficult to be described by the mechanistic approach. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are renowned for their utility as universal approximators of complex non-linear relationships between process variables and product quality properties (Tsaptsinos, 1995 [6]). The success of the network depends on the selection of process variables, the quality of the data and the type of network used. This work is confined to two types of neural networks - a multi layered feed forward neural network with a sigmoid transfer function and generalized regression neural networks (GRNN). Fig. 2 shows the typical structure of an artificial neural network. The neurons are represented by a circle. Each neuron in the hidden layer (upper layer) receives weighted inputs plus bias from each neuron in the input layer or layer below it as given below
(1)

Post-combustion of CO into CO2 is only partial, i.e. only a part of the present CO will oxidize into CO2. These gaseous reaction products (CO and CO2) are evacuated through the exhaust hood. Other important reactions include: [Si] + O2 = SiO2 2[P] + 2/5 O2 = P2O5 [Mn] + O2 = MnO [Fe]+ O2 = FeO 2[Fe] + 3O2 = Fe2O3 (d) (e) (f) (g) (h)

i = number of data patterns Where p is the input matrix, iw is initial weight matrix and b is bias, S is number of variables in input matrix. The output of the layer, a1i, which is input to the next layer, is calculated by transfer function as (2)

These oxides combine with previously charged oxides to form a liquid which floats on the surface of the metal bath. It is not possible to measure steel bath temperature and composition continuously online and operation conditions vary frequently which makes it difficult to control the BOF end point precisely.

The transfer function f can be linear, sigmoid, and radial basis type transfer function. Each neuron in the output layer receives output from hidden layer as given below
(3)

Where lwik is layer weight matrix, bk is bias, N is number of neurons in the hidden layer, k is number of targets in the output layer and the output of the output layer a2 is by linear transfer function which is
(4)

Figure 1: Neural Network Architecture

The values of weights and bias are set during network training process. Initially the weights are set randomly. The neural networks are trained by input and target data sets. The data set is divided randomly in to training set and testing sets. The training set is used to train the network to adjust the weights. The training of network involves adjusting the values of weights and bias so that

the error between target values and the predicted values is minimum. Levenberg-Marquardt (Levenberg, 1944 [7]; Marquardt, 1963[8]; Hagan and Menhaj, 1994[9]) back propagation minimization BPNN algorithm was used to adjust the weights. The mean square error is calculated by (5) Where i is number of data points and k is number of targets. IV. GENERALIZED REGRESSION NEURAL NETWORKS (GRNN) GRNN are often used for the approximation of function. GRNNs training times are faster; can model non-linear functions, and have been shown to perform well in noisy environments if given enough data. These are known as kernel regression and originally reported in the statistics literature. GRNN was re-discovered by Donald Specht in 1991 (Specht, D.F., 1991, [10]). GRNNs are comprised of two layers. The first layer consists of radial basis neurons, whose transfer function is a Gaussian function with a bias or spreading factor bi. First layer weights are simply the transpose of input vectors from the training set. A Euclidean distance is calculated between an input vector and these weights, which are then scaled by the spreading factor (bi). The radial basis output, ai, is then calculated as the exponential of the negatively weighted distance: Euclidean distance between a vector, p and initial weight matrix, iw is (6)

(7) Where p is input vector, iw = initial weight matrix, b = spreading factor, i= number of data patterns Therefore, if a neuron weight is equal to the input vector, distance between the two is 0 giving an output of 1. This type of neuron gives an output characterizing the closeness between input vectors and weight vectors. The weight matrix size is defined by the size of the training dataset (m parameters x n data points), while the number of neurons is the number of input vectors (n). The second layer consists of neurons with a linear transfer function. Hidden layer weights, lwi, are set to target values. The output of second layer tp (output corresponding to input vector, p) is: (8) As the spreading factor b increases, the radial basis function decreases in width. The network will respond

with the target vector associated with the nearest design input vector. As the spreading factor b becomes smaller, the radial basis function increases in width. Several neurons may then respond to an input vector. This is because the network computes a weighted average of corresponding target vectors. As radial basis function gets wider and wider, more neurons contribute to the average resulting in a smoother model function. For this study, the spreading factor was held constant for all neurons and is optimized through calibration of the network. The first training step consists of setting weights of both layers of the network respectively to inputs and outputs of the training dataset. The remaining step then is to optimize the spreading factor b by use of a test data set, which is different from training set. The test set is selected randomly from the input data set. An optimal value for b is then determined and used for training. The spread value is maintained constant by the network subsequent to training. When presented with a new set of data, the distance between the new data and each neuron in the hidden layer (i.e., training set) is computed and passed through a radial basis transfer function. The advantage of GRNN is fast training times and adjustment of one parameter b alone is sufficient for determining the network. The network can handle both linear and non-linear data. The disadvantage of GRNN is that it requires many training samples to adequately span the variation in the data and hence the size of the network is very large. The solution of the network is not in compact form. Unlike other networks, the weight matrix for GRNN is equal to input matrix and hence all the input vectors used for training the network are to be stored which increases the computational load compared to other networks where the weight matrix is much smaller than input matrix. However, the difference is very insignificant on high-speed computers. V. ADAPTIVE NEURO FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM (ANFIS) A FIS is an architecture which is functionally equivalent to a Sugeno type fuzzy rule base (Jang, Sun & Mizutani, [10]; Jang & Sun, [11]). Under certain minor constraints the ANFIS architecture is also equivalent to a radial basis function network. Loosely speaking ANFIS is a method for tuning an existing rule base with a learning algorithm based on a collection of training data. This allows the rule base to adapt. The structure of ANFIS network is shown at Fig 12. The network may be extended by assigning a linear function to the output weight of each neuron, (9) is a parameter vector and bk is a scalar Where parameter. The network is then equivalent to a first order Sugeno type fuzzy rule base (Takagi and Sugeno, [12]). The requirements for the radial basis function network to be equivalent to a fuzzy rule base are summarized in the following.

 Both must use the same aggregation method (weighted average or weighted sum) to derive their overall outputs. The number of activation functions must be equal to the number of fuzzy if-then rules. When there are several inputs in the rule base, each activation function must be equal to a composite input membership function. One way to achieve this is to employ Gaussian membership functions with the same variance in the rule base, and apply product for the end operation. The multiplication of the Gaussian membership functions becomes a multi-dimensional Gaussian radial basis function. Corresponding activation functions and fuzzy rules should have the same functions on the output side of the neurons and rules respectively. If the training data are contained in a small region of the input space, the centers of the neurons in the hidden layer can be concentrated within the region and sparsely cover the remaining area. Thus only a local model will be formed and if the test data lie outside the region, the performance of the network will be poor. On the other hand, if one distributes the basis function centers evenly throughout the input space, the number of neurons depends exponentially on the dimension of the input space. For two inputs, u1 and u2, and one output, y, a first order Sugeno type of rule base with the following two rule If u1 is A1 and u2 is B1 then y1=c11u1+ c12u2+ c13u3 (10) If u1 is A2 and u2 is B1 then y2=c21u1+ c22u2+ c23u3 (11) If the firing strengths of the rules are 1 and 2 respectively, for two particular values of the inputs u1 and u2, then the output is computed as a weighted average (12) A description of the layers in the network follows. 1). each neuron i in layer 1 is adaptive with a parametric activation function. Its output is the grade of membership to which the given input satisfies the membership function, i.e., A1 (u1), B1 (u2), A2 (u1), or B2 (u2). An example of a membership function is the generalized bell shaped function where {a, b, c} is the parameter set.

3). Every node in layer 3 is a fixed node which calculates the ratio of the ith rules firing strength relative to the sum of all rules firing strengths, (14) The result is a normalized firing strength. 4). every node in layer 4 is an adaptive node with a node output. (15) Where is the normalized firing strength from layer 3 and {ci1, ci2, ci0} is the parameter set of this node. Parameters in this layer are called consequent parameters. 5). every node in layer 5 is a fixed node which sums all incoming signals.

Figure 2: ANFIS Architecture

VI. NEURO FUZZY MODELLING At present, artificial neural network technique has been used in BOF steelmaking control process to establish static, dynamic and hybrid models based on artificial neural network, which can overcome the lack of common models, improve the control precision, and improve control performance. As a new technique, neural network has provided a new method for solving the problem of prediction and control for multidimensional nonlinear system and unknown model system .Using neural network, complex system can be predicted and controlled without mathematical model. BP neural network which has a very strongly approximate ability is widely used. It can improve the accuracy of prediction when BP neural network is used in the prediction of endpoint carbon content. But the common BP neural network has some disadvantages such as long training time, bad convergence rate, being easy to reach local extreme point, poor numerical stability, and being difficult to adjust parameters for initial weights, learning rate and momentum coefficient, which shows that it is unfit for online study. The model established by using Levenberg Marquardt neural network algorithm can shorten training time, diminish tracking error, therefore it has a high precision and is better than common BP neural network algorithm model In order to reduce the influence on carbon content caused by the change of boundary conditions such as burnt oxygen gun, thin lining or raw materials, the self-learning for the control model and predictive model is necessary according to the

(13) As the values of the parameters change, the shape of the bell-shaped function varies. Parameters in that layer are called premise parameters. 2). every node in layer 2 is a fixed node, whose output is the product of all incoming signals. In general, any other fuzzy and operation can be used. Each node output represents the firing strength i of the ith rule.

steelmaking information. As a result the steelmaking selflearning control and the measurement of carbon content are implemented, which provides the basis for BOF steelmaking endpoint. Fuzzy inference is the process of formulating the mapping from a given input to an output using fuzzy logic. The mapping then provides a basis from which decisions can be made, or patterns discerned. The process of fuzzy inference involves: membership functions, fuzzy logic operators, and if-then rules. Fuzzy inference systems have been successfully applied in fields such as automatic control, data classification, decision analysis and expert systems. In the past few years, there has been an increasing interest in fuzzy systems and its applications. The main idea of fuzzy systems is to extend the classical two-valued modeling of concepts and attributes in a sense of gradual truth. Classical models usually try to avoid ambiguous, imprecise and uncertain information because it is considered as having a negative influence in an inference process. Fuzzy systems, the other hand, utilize such information since it leads to simpler, more suitable models which are easier to handle and more similar to human thinking. An expert describes his knowledge about the process by a set of rules. This set of rules should cover all relevant states of the system and the resulting control activities. The main advantage of the rule-based design method is that it avoids a long-lasting and perhaps unsuccessful learning process. Fuzzy systems may use neural techniques. The neural fuzzy system is one form of integration of fuzzy system and neural networks. It uses learning algorithm derived from neural network theory to determine it parameters such as membership functions and fuzzy rule base by processing data. The neural fuzzy system aims at providing fuzzy system with automatic tuning methods of neural networks. The neural network helps the fuzzy system to elicit the membership functions, map fuzzy sets to fuzzy rules and implement defuzzification. Several references are available in literature such as Fuzzy inference networks [11], Fuzzy aggregation networks [12], neural network driven fuzzy reasoning [13], fuzzy modeling networks and ANFIS [14]. VII. DATA COLLECTIO Data was collected from the Visakhapatnam steel plant, Visakhapatnam, A.P, India historical database. There were thousands of records stored in the database covering several years of production. Total relevant process parameters identified initially are 56. Through domain knowledge of the process and after lot of discussions with experts in the process six process parameters were chosen for carbon prediction and seven output for temperature prediction. Some of the records contained missing data and due to the large amount of data available these cases were discarded. Also, any record containing spurious data was filtered out. There are some blanks in the data which were discarded. The

data set was then split randomly into two sets, one for training and the other for testing. VIII. DATA PRE PROCESSING SCALING

Since the different parameters have different units, the data are to be normalized to avoid numerical overflow and underflow. All the data must lie between 0 and 1 because the range of the membership function is between 0 and 1. Therefore, data in each group of variables are scaled according to the corresponding data range. A scaled value is equal to: (16) A total about 2347 and 2958 sets of data were collected in respect of carbon and temperature variables respectively. The collected data were randomly divided into two groups: one i.e., training data set which contains 1280 points and 1932 points and the other i.e., testing data set contains 1067 data points and 1026 data points respectively in case of ANFIS. Various networks with different architectures are trained to find out the optimized model that gives minimum RMSE. The additives include calcined dolomite, iron oxide, dolomite, iron silicate and manganese silicate. TABLE I
INPUTS PARAMETERS FOR CARBON AND TEMPERATURE

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)

Inputs for Carbon Qnt. of Hot Metal Qnt. of Scrap Steel Qnt. of Coke Carbon content in HM Oxygen blown Temp. of HM

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)

Inputs for Temperature Carbon content in HM Qnt. of Oxygen blown Temp. of HM Qnt. of Limestone Qnt. of HM and Scrap Steel Qnt. of Additives Qnt. of Aluminium

IX. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Fuzzy logic tool box in MATLAB 7.6 has been used to map input-output data of BOF process. The model uses Sugeno-type Fuzzy Inference System structure using subtractive clustering. It requires separate sets of input and output data as input arguments. The data are steady and consistent. Function genfis2 in MATLAB accomplishes this by extracting a set of rules that models the data behavior. The rule extraction method first uses the subclust function to determine the number of rules and antecedent membership functions and then uses linear least squares estimation to determine each rules consequent equations. This function returns a FIS structure that contains a set of fuzzy rules to cover the feature space. The arguments for genfis2 are input and output matrices. The input membership function type used is 'gaussmf', and the output membership function type used is 'linear'. The number of membership functions for the final structure is 132 for carbon and 128 for temperature.

TABLE 2
ANFIS MODEL PARAMETERS FOR CARBON AND TEMPERATURE

ANFIS Carbon model Total No. of points 2347 Training points 1280 Checking points 1067 Final Range [0, 1] Radius of cluster 0.2385 Type of MF Gauss MF No. of MFs 132

ANFIS Temperature model Total No. of points 2958 Training points 1932 Checking points 1026 Final Range [0, 1] Radius of cluster 0.205 Type of MF Gauss MF No. of MFs 128

X. ANFIS TRAINING The two ANFIS parameter optimization method options available for FIS training in MATLAB are hybrid (the default, mixed least squares and back propagation) and backpropa (back propagation). In the present work hybrid method was used for optimization. Error tolerance is used to create a training stopping criterion, which is related to the error size. The training will stop after the training data error remains within this tolerance. The value was set to zero in the present work. The training error is the difference between the training data output value, and the output of the fuzzy inference system corresponding to the same training data input value. The training error records the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the training data set at each epoch. The correlation coefficient, R value for the training set is 0.96 in care of Carbon model and 0.94 for Temperature Model. The percentage error is calculated from division of difference between measured and predicted divided by measured value multiplied by 100. The training error is within 8% for carbon prediction and 3% for temperature. XI. MODEL CHECKING The checking data is used for testing the generalization capability of the fuzzy inference system at each epoch. The checking data has the same format as that of the training data, and its elements are generally distinct from those of the training data. A fuzzy inference system needs to track a given input/output data set well. Because the model structure used for ANFIS is fixed, there is a tendency for the model to over fit the data on which is it trained, especially for a large number of training epochs. If over fitting does occur, the fuzzy inference system may not respond well to other independent data sets, especially if they are corrupted by noise. A validation or checking data set can be useful for these situations. This data set is used to cross-validate the fuzzy inference model. This cross-validation requires applying the checking data to the model and then seeing how well the model responds to this data. The checking data is applied to the model at each training epoch. The model parameters that correspond to the minimum checking error are returned via the output argument. The FIS membership function parameters computed using the ANFIS when both training and checking data are loaded is associated with the training epoch that has a minimum checking error. The use of the minimum checking data error epoch to set the

membership function parameters assumes that (i) the checking data is similar enough to the training data that the checking data error decreases as the training begins (ii) the checking data error increases at some point in the training after the data over fitting occurs. The corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.98 and 0.92. Fig 3, Fig5 show the comparison of predicted and plant values and percentage error vs. sample number respectively for checking data. The maximum percentage error for checking data is within 4% and 2% which shows the generalization capability of trained network. Out of the various models developed for carbon content, the best RMSE % values obtained are 2.2114 and 1.4585 respectively for training and checking and the corresponding R values are 0.96399 and 0.98255 respectively. Correspondingly, the best RMSE % values obtained are 0.62 and 1.15 respectively for training and checking and the corresponding R values are 0.94 and 0.92 respectively among the various models developed for temperature variable. (Fig 4, Fig6)

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL For ANN modeling, broadly 3 models were considered for carbon as per the configurations given below: Model C1) 55-20-25 (training, validation, testing % out of total points under consideration) Model C2) 70-15-15 Model C3) 90-05-05 These further consist of 8 sub-models on the basis of no of neurons chosen viz., 6, 12,20,30,60,100,150 and 200. Similarly two models were considered for temperature as per the configurations given below: Model T1) 65-15-20 (training, validation and testing % out of total points under consideration) Model T2) 80-10-10 These further consist of 4 sub models on the basis of no. Of neurons chosen viz., 6,15,25,40 The methodology followed in respect of ANN modeling is not detailed as it is generally understood. Out of the various models developed for carbon, the best RMSE % values obtained are 6.4402% and 8.0675% respectively for training and checking and the corresponding R values are 0.6150 and 0.2633 respectively. The root mean square percentage error for training and checking data in respect of temperature is found to be 1.64% and 1.79% (the respective R values are0.43 and 0.29) respectively. The results have been tabulated in tables 3.

XII.

Table 4
RESULTS of ANN

MODEL Training R Training RMSE % Validation R Validation RMSE % Testing R Testing RMSE % Number of neurons

C1 0.673 6.037 0.256 8.536 0.189 9.018 100

C2 0.728 5.527 0.286 8.696 0.357 8.277 200

C3 0.615 6.440 0.470 6.965 0.263 8.0675 150

T1 0.36 1.70 0.20 1.72 0.18 1.76 25

T2 0.43 1.64 0.14 1.78 0.29 1.79 40

XIII.

GRNN TRAINING AND CHECKING

For GRNN modeling, 4 models with the combinations of the training and checking points were considered for prediction of the end point carbon. The results obtained for all the 4 models are also shown in table 4. Similarly two models were considered for the prediction of end point temperature. XIV. CONCLUSIONS

Adaptive Neuro fuzzy model has been developed to predict the end point carbon content of BOF steel from six process variables that include hot metal temperature, carbon content in hot metal, weight of hot metal, weight of scrap steel, weight of coke, oxygen blow rate and from seven process variables that include hot metal temperature, weights of hot metal plus scrap steel, aluminum, lime stone, dolomite, additives, oxygen blow rate to predict the end point temperature. The optimized ANFIS carbon model structure has 132 membership functions for each input. Around 1280 input-output data are used to train the network. The average error of training data is within 8%. The final model with the optimized structure predicted the checking data very satisfactorily. The average checking error with around 1067 data point is within 2%. The optimized ANFIS model structure for temperature has 128 membership functions for each input. Around 1932 input-output data are used to train the network. The average error of training data is within 3%. The final model with the optimized structure predicted the checking data is matching the plant valve satisfactorily. The average checking error with around 1026 data point is within 2%. The model can be used to predict end point temperature using the model with the given input and act accordingly in case of off specification. The results show, this model has good performance on prediction and control for carbon content as well as temperature in BOF process. The R-value of model output and actual in experiment reaches 0.96 for training and 0.98 for checking for carbon. The corresponding values for temperature are 0.94 and 0.92. The root mean square percentage error for training and checking data for

carbon is found to be 2.2114 and 1.4585. The corresponding values for temperature are 0.62 and 1.5The above results show conclusively that ANFIS model predicts very well vis a vis the measured carbon content as well as temperature. As the % of training points is increased in respect of carbon from 55% to 70% to 90% from model 1 to 2 to 3 the predictions have generally improved. Further in model 3 as the no. of hidden neurons is increased in the modeling in the sub-models of model-3 from 6 to 150, the predictions have improved and reached optimum. On further increase of hidden neurons to 200, %RMSE increased for both training and validation. Similarly in respect of temperature variable as the training data increase from 65% to 80% the error is decreased. Compared to the carbon ANN model the temperature ANN model is showing better and consistent results. But ANFIS temperature model is giving a better co relation coefficient and better prediction than ANN model. From the results of GRNN, it is observed training error is less than that in ANFIS and ANN but checking error is higher than both the ANN and ANFIS models. This shows that GRNN is over fitting the data and is unable to generalize the model for new data. Hence, even though the training error is greater than GRNN, ANFIS model predicts more consistently and gives better checking results. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors are very thankful to the management of the Vishakapatnam Steel Plant,Vishakapatnam, Andhra pradesh, India under Rastriya Ispat Nigam Ltd, India for permission to work on the project and for supply of data from their records. TABLE 3
RESULTS OF GRNN

CARBON Training Points Checking Points Training RMSE % Checking RMSE % Training R Checking R 2291 1056 0.5039 11.9142 0.99999 0.2855 1643 704 0.4787 12.1604 0.9999 0.2247 2113 234 0.7082 11.282 0.9999 0.0597 2250 93 0.786 9.409 0.999

Temperature 1922 936 0.0028 1 36.154 2366 492 0.002 1 34.79 0.022

0 0.0158

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[3]. Szekely. N, (2003), Simplifying the model of the complex industrial process using input variable selection, Periodica Polytechnica Electrical Engineering, Vol 47, No 1-2, pp.141-147. [4]. Zadeh, L.A., Jan. 1973, Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybemetics, Vo1.3, No.1 pp.28-44,. [5]. Matlab version 7.6.0.324, Fuzzy Logic Toolbox, The MathWorks .Inc. [6]. Keller, J.M., Krishnapuram, R., and Rhee, R.C.H., 1992a.Evidence aggregation networks for fuzzy logic interface, IEEE Trans. eural etworks, 3(5), pp. 761-769. [7]. Keller,J.M., Yager,R,, and Tahani, H. ,1992b.,Neural network implementation of fuzzy logic rules with neural networks. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning, 6, pp.221-240. [8]. Takagi. H and Hayashi I., 1991, "NN-driven Fuzzy Reasoning," Int'l Journal of Approximate Reasoning (Special Issue of IIZUKA'88), Vol.5, No.3, pp.191-213. [9]. Horikawa. S.,1992,A Fuzzy Modeling of BOF Using a Fuzzy Neural Network Nonlinear Phenomena in Electromagnetic Fields .Proceedings of the 4th International ISEM Symposium on onlinear Phenomena in Electromagnetic Fields ISEM-Nagoya, pp.61-64. [10]. J.-S. R. Jang, C.-T. Sun, and E. Mizutani, NeuroFuzzy and Soft Computing. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1997. [11]. J.-S. Roger Jang and C.-T. Sun (1995), "NeuroFuzzy Modelling and Control", the Proceedings of the IEEE, No. 3, Vol. 83, PP. 378-406. [12]. Takagi, T. and M. Sugeno,(1985). Fuzzy identification of systems and its applications to modelling and control. IEEE Trans. Syst, Man Cybermetics, , 15: 116-132.

Figure 4: Regression plot of predicted vs. measured for temperature training data

Figure 5: Regression plot of predicted vs.measured for end point carbon checking data

Figure 3: Regression plot of predicted vs. measured for carbon training data

Figure 6: Regression plot of predicted vs.measured for end point temperature checking data