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BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 5.4 24.5 292.5 4QFY11 1,717 870 598 % chg (yoy) 9.3 83.9 29.4
`203 `276
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, Union Bank of India reported strong net profit growth of 29.4% yoy, aided by considerably higher provisioning expenses, higher growth in fee income and lower employee expenses. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock due to its attractive valuations. Advances growth remains healthy; Slippages normalize: The banks advances, continuing the trend witnessed in the past few quarters, grew at a healthy pace of 17.8% yoy during 4QFY2012 as well. Deposits growth was relatively moderate, though at 10.1% yoy. Even on the CASA deposits front, growth remained sluggish at 8.4% on a yoy basis. CASA ratio decreased by 49bp yoy to 31.3% (126bp sequentially). Expansion in CD ratio coupled with relatively low growth in CASA led to an increase of 11bp qoq in cost of funds, which offset the 9bp qoq increase in yield on funds, resulting in sequentially flat reported NIM at 3.3% in 4QFY2012. On the asset-quality front, the banks slippages normalized to `607cr (annualized slippage ratio of 1.6%) from an average quarterly run rate of `890cr over the past four quarters. Gross and net NPA ratios improved by 32bp and 18bp qoq, respectively. Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) dipped by 92bp qoq to 62.2%. The bank restructured advances worth `3,236cr during the quarter, taking the outstanding restructured book to `11,879cr (6.7% of loan book in 4QFY2012 as against 5.5% in 3QFY2012). Out of the total restructured book, the bank has till date witnessed slippages of 10.3%. In terms of restructuring pipeline, the bank expects one discom to be restructured in 1QFY2013 (exposure of ~`1,100cr). Outlook and valuation: Going ahead, we expect the bank to report reasonable earnings in FY2013, considering the asset quality improvement, as evident from normalization of slippages at 1.5-1.6%, much lower than the average quarterly run rate, minimal profitability impact of a sharp rise in restructuring and further cushion expected from pick-up in recoveries from technically slipped accounts. In our view, Union Bank of India, though structurally among the better large PSU banks, is trading at attractive valuations of 0.7x FY2014E P/ABV, much lower than peers. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `276.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 54.4 18.9 9.6 17.1
3m (7.5) (19.0)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2011 6,216 48.3 2,082 0.3 3.0 39.6 5.1 1.0 1.0 20.9
FY2012 6,909 11.1 1,787 (14.2) 2.8 32.3 6.3 0.9 0.7 14.8
FY2013E 8,141 17.8 2,363 32.2 2.9 42.7 4.8 0.8 0.8 17.0
FY2014E 9,452 16.1 2,777 17.5 2.8 50.2 4.0 0.7 0.8 17.5
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 5,743 4,384 1,223 58 79 3,867 1,877 755 628 403 127 162 63 2,632 1,033 595 438 1,599 517 226 291 1,082 308 773 28.5 5,375 4,030 1,143 112 90 3,594 1,781 592 491 323 101 90 78 2,373 1,089 701 388 1,284 973 425 548 311 114 197 36.7 6.9 8.8 7.0 (48.0) (13.1) 7.6 5.4 27.6 28.0 24.8 25.7 80.0 (19.3) 10.9 (5.1) (15.2) 13.1 24.5 (46.8) (46.8) (46.8) 247.3 169.6 292.5 (823)bp 4,615 3,458 1,034 60 64 2,899 1,717 601 489 332 112 98 59 2,317 1,448 1,053 395 870 153 98 55 716 119 598 16.6 24.4 26.8 18.3 (3.3) 22.4 33.4 9.3 25.8 28.6 21.7 13.4 65.3 6.8 13.6 (28.6) (43.5) 11.0 83.9 237.4 130.6 426.9 51.0 159.8 29.4 1194bp
Actual 1,877 755 2,632 1,033 1,599 517 1,082 308 773
Estimates 1,857 597 2,454 1,105 1,349 591 758 158 600
Var. (%) 1.1 26.5 7.3 (6.5) 18.5 (12.5) 42.7 95.2 28.8
4QFY12
3QFY12
% chg (qoq)
4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 17.8 10.1 524bp 8.4 (49)bp (110)bp (32)bp 89bp 100bp (18)bp (2322)bp 50.4 64bp 67.7 51bp (536)bp 25bp 19bp
177,882 156,202 222,869 205,317 79.8 69,705 31.3 11.9 8.4 9.7 6.5 3.3 39.3 5,450 3.0 3,025 1.7 62.2 1.6 0.4 76.1 66,810 32.5 11.7 8.0 9.6 6.4 3.3 45.9 5,209 3.3 2,879 1.9 63.1 1.5 0.7
13.9 150,986 8.5 202,461 374bp 4.3 (126)bp 13bp 39bp 9bp 11bp (5)bp (663)bp 4.6 (32)bp 5.1 (18)bp (92)bp 11bp (36)bp 74.6 64,307 31.8 13.0 8.7 8.8 5.5 3.4 62.5 3,623 2.4 1,803 1.2 67.6 1.4 0.2
74.6
20.0
26.5 19.1
16.7 16.1
18.6 10.0
16.8 10.0
17.8 10.1
31.8
31.5
32.1
32.5
31.3
30.0
Expansion in CD ratio coupled with relatively low growth in CASA led to an increase of 11bp qoq in cost of funds to 6.5%. Yield on funds also went up by 9bp sequentially to 9.7%. Consequently, reported NIM remained flat to 3.3% in 4QFY2012. Management has guided for reported NIM to be above 3.0% for FY2013 as compared to 3.3% witnessed in FY2012.
6.54
4QFY12 3QFY12 403 127 162 63 755 628 323 101 90 78 592 491
% chg (qoq) 4QFY11 24.8 25.7 80.0 (19.2) 27.6 28.0 332 112 98 59 601 489
The bank restructured advances worth `3,236cr during the quarter, taking the outstanding restructured book to `11,879cr (6.7% of loan book in 4QFY2012 as against 5.5% in 3QFY2012). Out of the total restructured book, the bank has till date witnessed slippages of 10.3%. In terms of restructuring pipeline, the bank expects one discom to be restructured in 1QFY2013 (exposure of ~`1,100cr). Management sounded confident that the bank would take no NPV loss on any SEB restructuring. On the back of moderating asset-quality pressures evident from the stabilization in slippages from the high average run rate over the past four quarters, we have reduced our provisioning estimates for the bank by 7.7% for FY2013.
0.7
1.4
2.0
4.8
1.5
1.6
2.4 1.2
2.6 1.3
3.5 2.0
3.3 1.9
0.1
3.0 1.7
50.0
2,634
2,673
2,757
3,016
3,038
3,051
3,177
3,201
62.5
43.8
44.3
45.9
39.3
15.0 -
0.6 -
Investment argument
Asset-quality improves
Union Bank of India has managed to improve its asset quality in the past two quarters, as evident from gross annualized slippage rate of 1.6% as of 4QFY2012, much lower from the spate of high slippages witnessed a few quarters earlier. In fact, slippages went as high as 4.8% as of 2QFY2012.
Earlier estimates FY2013 13.0 13.0 32.7 2.8 4.3 (3.0) 10.0 3.5 63.0 FY2014 15.0 17.0 32.4 2.9 3.3 15.0 15.0 3.0 65.0
Revised estimates FY2013 16.0 20.0 29.8 2.9 (11.1) 15.0 15.0 2.0 70.0 FY2014 17.0 20.0 28.9 2.8 15.8 15.0 15.0 2.0 75.0
2,074 (6.8) 10,215 (1.3) 4,586 (0.7) 5,630 (1.8) 2,132 (7.7) 3,498 1,135 2,363 2.1 2.1 2.1
2,402 (5.7) 11,854 (1.1) 5,273 (0.7) 6,581 (1.5) 2,470 (1.9) 4,111 (1.2) 1,334 (1.2) 2,777 (1.2)
0.7x
1x
1.3x
1.6x
1.9x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY09 3,814 23.6 1,483 20.3 5,296 22.6 2,214 39.0 3,082 13.1 725 (16.2) 2,357 26.7 630 26.7 1,727 24.5 FY10 4,192 9.9 1,975 33.2 6,167 16.4 2,508 13.3 3,659 18.7 826 13.9 2,833 20.2 758 26.8 2,075 20.2 FY11 6,216 48.3 2,039 3.2 8,255 33.9 3,950 57.5 4,305 17.6 1,350 63.3 2,955 4.3 873 29.6 2,082 0.3 FY12 6,909 11.1 2,332 14.4 9,241 11.9 3,988 1.0 5,254 22.0 2,541 88.3 2,713 (8.2) 926 34.1 1,787 (14.2) FY13E 8,141 17.8 2,074 (11.1) 10,215 10.5 4,586 15.0 5,630 7.2 2,132 (16.1) 3,498 28.9 1,135 32.4 2,363 32.2 FY14E 9,452 16.1 2,402 15.8 11,854 16.0 5,273 15.0 6,581 16.9 2,470 15.9 4,111 17.5 1,334 32.4 2,777 17.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY09 505 8,235 138,703 33.5 3,885 4,890 4,757 160,976 8,992 6,993 42,997 96,534 29.8 2,335 3,124 160,976 29.7 FY10 505 9,919 170,040 22.6 3,125 6,090 5,483 195,162 12,468 3,308 54,404 119,315 23.6 2,305 3,361 195,162 21.2 FY11 635 12,129 202,461 19.1 7,126 6,190 7,443 235,984 17,610 2,488 58,399 150,986 26.5 2,293 4,208 235,984 20.9 FY12 662 13,971 222,869 10.1 7,918 9,992 6,800 262,211 11,634 4,042 62,364 177,882 17.8 2,336 3,955 262,211 11.1 FY13E 662 15,780 267,443 20.0 9,451 11,590 8,071 312,997 10,698 4,824 83,706 206,343 16.0 2,705 4,721 312,997 19.4 FY14E 662 17,906 320,931 20.0 11,296 13,561 9,709 374,064 12,837 5,766 105,262 241,422 17.0 3,135 5,642 374,064 19.5
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA before pref. div. Pref. div. RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.8 3.2 1.6 1.7 0.4 1.2 1.2 22.5 27.2 2.4 0.5 1.9 0.3 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 1.2 1.2 22.5 26.2 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.2 2.5 0.7 3.2 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.0 21.7 20.9 2.8 1.0 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 20.7 14.8 2.8 0.7 2.1 0.1 2.2 0.7 2.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.8 20.8 17.0 2.8 0.7 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.6 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.8 21.7 17.5 5.9 1.5 2.5 4.9 1.2 2.7 5.1 1.0 3.9 6.3 0.9 3.9 4.8 0.8 4.2 4.0 0.7 4.9 34.2 139.7 5.0 41.1 173.6 5.5 39.6 202.6 8.0 32.3 216.6 8.0 42.7 259.1 8.5 50.2 306.7 10.0 2.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 83.1 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.4 74.0 2.4 1.2 2.4 0.6 66.8 3.0 1.7 2.5 0.6 62.2 3.6 1.4 2.0 0.7 70.0 4.1 1.3 2.0 0.6 75.0 30.1 69.6 12.0 7.4 31.7 70.2 12.5 7.9 31.8 74.6 13.0 8.7 31.3 79.8 15.4 8.9 29.8 77.2 13.7 7.8 28.9 75.2 13.2 7.4 2.8 41.8 1.2 27.2 2.4 40.7 1.2 26.2 3.0 47.8 1.0 20.9 2.8 43.1 0.7 14.8 2.9 44.9 0.8 17.0 2.8 44.5 0.8 17.5 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
11