Currency Daily Report 14thMay 2012

MCX 11 - 05 - 12 USDINR May12 EURINR - May12 GBPINR - May12 JPYINR May12 Open 53.62 69.30 86.25 66.92 High 53.89 69.61 86.75 67.49 Low 53.57 69.20 86.25 66.92 Close 53.79 69.54 86.56 67.23 Volume 2233263 36712 9583 8234

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Commentary

Global Indices*
Equities BSE SENSEX NSE NIFTY DOW NASDAQ FTSE NIKKEI * Close/Last 16292 4928 12820 2933 5575 8952 Change -127 -37 -34 +1 +31 -1

Rising capital outflows due falling equity markets over weak

IIP numbers and weak global sentiments weighed on INR which is hovering around its historical lows. The oil importers demand kept the strengths in check as and when the INR strengthened due to pull backs in equities.

There has been exporter hedging around the 54.00 levels

over fears of RBI intervention but the global weakness is pressurizing the prices lower. With the active intervention of RBI in last fortnight there can be some pause in future interventions in near term

Forex Crosses
Spot at 5 pm 53.62 1.2934 1.6108 79.95 1.0040 0.9284 80.25 Spot at 8 am 1.2885 1.6064 80.02 1.0012 0.9321 80.45

The Political uncertainties from Euro with Germany being the

latest to join in, dampened the prospects of the single currency leading to fresh round of Global risk aversion pushing Euro below 1.2900 levels. With China going in for a rate cut of 0.50bps in CRR to boost its ailing economy which has been witnessing a slew of weak economic numbers could be the first step towards over coming back of liquidity in market. A rising dollar has pushed crude oil prices towards the $95 mark and a successive move below the same shall test $93 levels on weak global sentiments and rising inventories. Gold prices has been hovering at $1575 levels and a successive breach of the $1560 levels is further negative for the yellow metal which has moving lower on global risk aversion. The Asian markets have been trading on a mixed note after the Fridays modest recovery but the overnight trades have eased the gains forming dark clouds for Indian equities too.

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Crosses USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCHF DXY

Commodities *
Commodities Oil Gold Silver Last Trade $ 95.45 $ 1582 $ 28.78

* Quotes mentioned are as on 8.30 IST.

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Currency Daily Report 14thMay 2012

Pivot Table
Pivot USD/INR May 12 EUR/INR May 12 GBP/INR May 12 JPY/INR May 12
53.75 69.45 86.52 67.21

1st Support
53.61 69.29 86.29 66.94

S2
53.43 69.04 86.02 66.64

S3
53.29 68.88 85.79 66.37

1st Resistance
53.93 69.70 86.79 67.51

R2
54.07 69.86 87.02 67.78

R3
54.25 70.11 87.29 68.08

Strategy
USD/INR May 12 EUR/INR May 12 GBP/INR May 12 JPY/INR May 12
Buy at 53.60 stop 53.40 Target 53.90 54.00 Buy at 69.20 stop 68.80 Target 69.80 70.00 Buy at 86.20 stop 85.90 Target 86.80 87.00 Buy at 66.90 stop 66.60 Target 67.50 67.70

Economic Data Releases

Data Releases For Today
EUR Italian 10-y Bond
Auction

Forecast
5.84/1.5

Previous
-

Implications
No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications

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CHF SNB Chairman Jordan

Speaks

More hawkish than expected = Good for currency

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Registered Office: Office No. 13, 2nd floor,Siddharth Complex, Opp. Silvassa Police Station, Silvassa, Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 396 230 Alpari (India) is a member of the NSE, MCX-SX and USE