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[table_report]

2012

2012.03.23

S1220210100006
[table_research]
TEL010-68584812
E-mail zhangzh@foundersc.com

[table_main]

TEL010-68584833
Emailshiming xuan@foundersc.com

[table_industryTrend]

4% 8% 2500
1000 1.5

1 :
2
3
4 C4

[table_page]

2012 3 15,16

2012
21

iHS
.

OPEC OPEC
100
100 120 78

.
49% 12600
61%
1.2%
87%
2014 90%
06 11 2700

25800
40% 25% 90%
05 130 06 11

2012 1200 300

1200

CPI
MTO 6700 5000

[table_page]

1
2011 2.68
2011 11.28
31.5% 13.2%
8234 19% 1.43
23.4% 6071.46 16.7%
2
2006
38 319 357

25

189 189 2010


2.0 8022 25
35.4%

3
200826
2010

2011 9 2011 9 15

1. MTO

/UOP

180 20

[table_page]

3
60 160~175 /

2. MTP

167 40

3.

UOP Oleflex Lummus Catofin


Snamprogetti Uhde
PDH Oleflex Catofin
50 26

320 /

4. CPP

50
29

5. C4/C5 Superflex
C4/C5
FCC

[table_page]

KBR
50 15
45 /12 /

C4
C5 /
6.
LPG

UOP/BP Cyclar / Z-Forming

43 LPG 1.06 2006


10 /

7.

UOP
Litol

K.K
12 /2.6
30 / UHDE

200

1 200
800
2
4 22
EVA27 46 1 7.8
PC30 100 3 1
40 1 4
C4 16500
PBT 10 2015 50 25000 S

PTT 2015 15

[table_page]

.
2010
14179 / 12328 87% 12290

2015 14530 3.4%


9.7%8.5%
4.8% PEEO 74.3%
EDCHDPE
EDC
2010 9847.6 / 7700.1
78.2% 7696.4
2015
9832.5 5.0%
12.7%10.3%5.5%
PP 65%PO
PPPO

2011 24 29 1512.5
/ 52 2011 1527.1
105 1632.1 8.8%
3220 9% 47.4%
2015 2700
/ 3800
69.7% 2015 1100
2020 3500 /
4700 1200
2010-2015 12.3%2015-2020 5.3%

/
/ 2015
EO/EG 4

ACOSuperflex
2011 2.5 55.6%

[table_page]

.
1
98%
CPP

(OCT)
OCT OCPACOSuperflex

MTO/MTP
PDH
2 CPP
80
DCCMGG MIL
DCC
(CPP) 50 /
CPP
20% 18%
45%

CPP
CPP

CPP 620-640 0.10-0.15MPa


, 2 CPP

CPP
78%
2 (OCT)
(OCT)

Sibina

(OCT)/ 0.6
1.0

[table_page]

3.OCP
Atofina/UOP OCP
500-8000.1-0.5MPaG C4C8
OCP 30%
/ 0.8 OCP MTO MTO
C4+ 80% 90%
30-50% 60%OCP
Antwerp UOP
MTO+OCP
4. SUPERFLEX
SUPERFLEX Lyondell Basell KBR
Secunda
C4 C8

/ 2/1
/ 2/13/1
5. Lurgi Propylur
Lurgi C4
Propylur ZSM-5

Propylur ZSM-5
500 0.10.2MPaG
1000h
15

80%85% C4 75%,
60% : 60% 15% 10%
15%
6. Exxon-Mobil MOI
MOI C4

ZSM-5
FCC
MOI C4
/
MOI MT BE

7. ACO

[table_page]

ACO KBR SK
SUPERFLEX SK
600700

/ 0.7/11.1/1
2/3
SUPERFLEX
SK ACO 1 ACO
4 / 2010 10 KBR
ACO

1.
DMTOCPPOCTSuperflex
DMTO MTO+OCPACO

DMTO
CPPSuperflex
DMTO-
735000 34519
53711 823229

797209 673405 123804


40574 83230
15.15% 12.01%

150 /+ 67
602600
28301 69025 699925

1. MTO

MTO 180
MTO

MTO

2. CPP
CPP

CPP
CPP

[table_page]

3. Superflex
Superflex

Superflex

C4C5

Superflex 5060
/
ACO Superflex
ACO
4.

5.

6. DMTOCPP

7.

2015 3800
5.1% 2800 5.4%
1214 520
550 144 824
130 370
110 114 100

2010 5000
2011 56%

20%
.
2015 2700 /
8100 /

10

[table_page]

LPG
LPG
60 /
--
-

LPG
LPG
1/5
0.75-1.50 /
2010
UOP

30% 80%
UOP Oleflex
ABB Lummus Catofin
2010 178.7 2010
LPG 5190 2015 7260
LPG
2011

5% 2%
2009
LPG 6600 2015 8000
2015 500

CMAI
24% 3%2007

3
DMTO
DMTO DMTO II
SMTO 20 /
FMTP

11

[table_page]

.A

1 :
LPG 60%
40%

2010 LPG 220

0.6 /
0.45 / 90-800 /

2008-2010 LPG20-30
2012-2014 3500
37003900 2012 15
9-10 150 40 *150
/*0.75=4500 3500 8000
2012 20
80 /
/ 5 10
70 5600
75% 3500
40 120
56% 60 15-18
150 75

12

[table_page]

56 m3 5 5
120 LPG 30

(CP) 2004 250 2008 900


2004-2010 () 581
932.5 / 200 /
1.236 11000 /
60 723 /
0.80 2013 238
105 150-200
1.575-2.1 45% 7088-9450
2013-2015 75% PEG
13.45
2

2010 60 138
2012-1-5 138
UOP
Oleflex ABB Lummus Catofin 16
11 UOP 4 Lumrnus l

13.35
3

5 12% 2010
62%

SAP

11/12/13 EPS 3.19/2.38/4.11


4 C4
14
11 14 2 C4

10 5
6

13

[table_page]

1962 1983

2008 300 2009 250


67.5 1998
13% 8.8
2015 2600
16%
2009 56% 2015 65%-70%
50%

5 UOP OleflexTM
UOP
1.

2.

FCCMTO/MTP (/
2020
20%

FCCMTO/MTP (
2020
21%
3. C3 LPG

1/3

PDH
12 1990 (UOP OleflexTM)
6 4 / 3 1
PDH 50 /
4 MTBEET BE
UOP
9 C3/C4 10 (9 PDH
and 1 Mixed)2011 10 1
UOP Oleflex Oleflex

14

[table_page]

1990 UOP Oleflex 7


21
Oleflex
1(4 )
75

3
CO2

1 MTBE/ET BE,
2) Oleflex
,,,
CCR

2 7
60 8
12

30
5


1
2
3 /

4
LPG

2010 LPG 1092 1


10 LPG 235
5

15

[table_page]

.
1
: 2005 2010 2005 2.2
2.4 20052010 2.1%
1.18 1.25

: 5
LPG 2013
LPG 2015
2.7 51%20102015
2.5%
2
:
2005 2005
2.3 2008 2009 2.5 2010
2.5 20052010 1.6%

1//
LPG
LPG

/ LPG
LPG 2005
1.246 2010 1.273
20052010 0.4%
2LPG

2005 5307
2010 6241 20052010 3.3%
3 LPG
LPG
CO NOx
LPG/CNG
LPG/CNG LPG/CNG LPG
LPG
2005 1615 2010
2247 20052010 6.8%
4 LPG LPG
LPG
LPG 2005 2077 2010
1498 6%20052010 -6.3%

16

[table_page]

5 LPG
2010 LPG 2247
/ LPG LPG
LPG
LPG 5 LPG
2.5% 2015 2.8
3.
12010
31.2%2010 2000
1700
2 3 LPG
LPG 7000
40%45%

LPG LPG
LPG
3 1995
0.3%
40% LPG
LPG
-0.3%2010 2914
4 MTBE LPG
1995 310 2010 1912
LPG LPG
5 1995 2.6%

2000 2800 2010 1949


62%
LPG
6
72010 1108
40% LPG 1/3
1/4
82010 218

65%

2015
LPG

LPG
LPG

17

[table_page]

LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG LPG

.
1
1965 60 /
LPG 172 LPG 1988
LPG LPG --
LPG
LPG LPG
1992
LPG LPG
LPGLPG LPG
1997
LPG 6.2
LPG
LPG 95%
-- LPG
2008
2005 1611 2007 1934 2008
1860 2009 1929 2010
2110 20052010 LPG 3.9%
5 1 / LPG 3%4%
LPG 300 400 / 80%
2015 LPG 2430 20102015
2.9%
2
/
2005 LPG 2222 2010 2337.5 2005
2010 1.0% 20102015 LPG
2.7% 2015 2670.6
1/LPG LPG
60%

LPG 2005
1640.0 73.8%2010 1683.0 72%
20052010 0.5% LPG
LPG LPG
LPG LPG

18

[table_page]

2 LPG
LPG

MTO MTP LPG


2005 4.1
0.2% LPG
2010 66.8 2.9%20052010
74.6% 2010 165 /
10 12.5 /6
490 /5
340 /14 C4 195 /5
28 /1 13
/2 24 /1
3
LPG

LPG
2005 440.3 19.8%
2010 447.4 19.1%
20052010
0.3% -- 5
GDP 7% LPG

4
LPG CO NOxLPG

LPG
10 1999 LPG
12 LPG 2002 45
LPG
LPG LPG
-- LPG 2005 44.4
2.0% 2010 93.5 4.0%20052010
16.0%
2005 LPG 5
LPG
/ LPG LPG
LPG LPG



LPG
LPG LPG 2010 90.2%

19

[table_page]

LPG
40007000
LPG / 70%
LPG
LPG LPG

2006-2010

2004 10
2005 468 1300 1.8
6.7% 13.8% 18.1%1990
DME
2007 70%
2005
24% 2010 47% 61%
45%
1.3

20%
17 2-3% 300
2009 6
276

20

[table_page]

4% 8%
2500 1000
1.5

:
1.
2.
50
4.2%

100
4.
2013 2013

6.6% 10 4.5% 4%

2011 150~200 2012

1000 /

21

[table_page]

LPG
MTBE

() LPG
ppm
ppb

LPG LPG
MTO
LPG LPG

210

MTBE

-2
MTO

MTO 600
/MTO
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG LPG
LNG LPG
LNG LPG
LPG
LPG

LPG

LPG
MTO LPG

22

[table_page]

LPG 50-95%

LPG
LPG MTO
LPG LPG

1
2-3
LPG

.
1.

2.


3.

23

[table_page]

1.

2.

3.

:
1.

LPG LPG
MTBE
20 20 30
30 1 100

30000 10 28000
20
5 3-5

5
10 2

24

[table_page]

320-340 4

1 4 400

9 NF

NF
NF
(1) :
(2)
NF
Nano-forming

2009
4.8 ( 3.8 0.81 )
6.3% 2000-3000 13
3.2
LPG 2000 5%
LPG 3200 /
LPG 1/3 1/3
1/3

10C4

MTBE

C4
1(FCC)

25

[table_page]

3
MTBE
1.-----MTBE
2.-----MTBE

MTBE 450
(1)
,
MTBE

C3/C4 + 12
C3/C4
---MTBE.
PDH
----+===MT BE

(2)
C4
C4
1-ABSSBSK
MTBEMMA1,4-
MTBE
(3) MTBE
MTBE C4
C4 35%-50%

MTBE

MTBE
1. MTBE
2.
(1): 2011 2. 6697
5.9% 4.1 8141.1
1.66761 6.1% 5.4%
(2)

7738.0 1838.2 16717.0 8.1%


5.1% 7.6%
(3)MTBE
2.7m% MTBE

MTBE

26

[table_page]

3.
2010 9.5 3 /
,
4. MMA
PMMA
2008
40 25 2015 65

.
5.
MTBE C4 MT BE

MTBE
MTBE

6. MTBE-
MTBE MT BE

MTBE450

27

[table_page1]

6
6
6
6

300
300
300
300

20%
10%20%
-10%10%
10%

6 300 10%
6 300 -10%10%
6 300 10%

348
100037
(8610) 68584820

20024
410015
(8673185832351

(8610) 68584803
http://www.foundersc.com

(8673185832380
http://www.foundersc.com

E-mail

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yjzx@foundersc.com

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