Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open in green tracking positive cues from
global markets. Germanys finance minister said the nation will focus on measures
to boost Europes economic growth, while hopes for an economic stimulus plan for
China brightened sentiment as the country pledged its proactive fiscal policy and
prudent monetary policy yesterday to shore up the worlds second-largest
economy.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.2
30.5 16,183
Nifty
0.3
14.6
4,906
MID CAP
0.4
23.9
5,889
SMALL CAP
1.0
62.0
6,317
BSE HC
0.3
18.8
6,636
US markets rebounded as traders picked up stocks at reduced levels following the

recent downward trend, which pulled the major averages down to four-month
closing lows on Friday. However, trading activity was somewhat subdued, as
lingering concerns about Europe and a lack of major US economic data kept some
traders on the sidelines. Trading today could be impacted by the release of the
National Association of Realtor's monthly report on existing home sales.
BSE PSU
0.6
42.5
6,684
BANKEX
1.1
AUTO
0.5
44.8
METAL
0.4
40.6 10,119
OIL & GAS
0.5
38.8
7,504
(1.2)
(65.7)
5,446
Indian shares erased most of their early gains on Monday, as a weakening rupee,
which was moving towards its record low of 55.04 against the dollar, and the
slashing of India's 2012 economic growth forecast to 6.3% from the earlier 6.9%
by Morgan Stanley gave way to some late-session profit taking.
Global Indices
(Pts)
(Close)
Markets Today
BSE IT
Chg (%)
116.2 10,843
9,276
Dow Jones
1.1
NASDAQ
2.5
68.4
2,847
FTSE
0.7
36.9
5,304
Nikkei
0.3
22.6
8,634
Hang Seng
(0.2)
135.1 12,504
(29.5) 18,922
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,210 / 4,911 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,271 16,359 / 4,933 4,960 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,210 / 4,911 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,122 16,062 / 4,884 4,862 levels.
Straits Times
0.4
11.1
2,790
Shanghai Com
0.2
3.8
2,348
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
0.2
0.1
$43.0
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
WIT
0.0
0.0
$8.7
SENSEX
16,062
16,122
16,210
16,271
16,359
IBN
3.0
0.9
$29.5
NIFTY
4,862
4,884
4,911
4,933
4,960
HDB
2.3
0.7
$29.7
News Analysis
Indian ADRs
Advances / Declines
L&T bags orders worth `7,44cr

4QFY2012 Result Reviews Nalco
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,643
922
Declines
1,027
492
130
78
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (May 18, 2012)

Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,660
1,866
(206)
(331)
43,130
BSE
1,579
484
407
77
(65)
(6,166)
NSE
7,813
MFs
FII Derivatives (May 21, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,048
1,595
(547)
12,101
Stock Futures
1,384
1,304
79
21,998
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Price (`)
Losers
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Reliance Cap
314
7.9
NMDC
169
(4.1)
Suzlon Energy
21
6.5
Sun TV Network
258
(3.1)
246
4.6
Max India
189
(2.9)
96
4.5
Tata Comm
203
(2.9)
214
4.0
India Cements
75
(2.7)
Godrej Inds
Tata Power
Indraprastha Gas
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
L&T bags orders worth `7,44cr

Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) construction arm has bagged new orders worth over
`7,44cr under various divisions so far in 1QFY2013. The power transmission and
distribution segment secured new orders worth `479cr from key customers,
including orders for electrical, instrumentation and automation works from
National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), Jindal Power Limited and
NTPC. An order has been secured from Power Grid Corp. for the construction of
overhead transmission lines from Barh in Bihar to Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh.
In the water and solar business, L&T construction has secured orders worth `265cr
from various customers for the construction of a solar thermal plant in Rajasthan
and an EPC contract for the construction of a pumping station and allied works at
Botad Branch Canal from Paliyad to Goma in Bhavnagar District, Gujarat.
At the CMP of `1,189, the stock is trading at PE of 15.6x FY2014E earnings, which
is below the historical trading multiple for L&T. We have used the SOTP
methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and
investments/stakes in different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent
business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap
basis, our target price works out to `1,553. Hence, we maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock.
Result Reviews
Nalco (CMP: `61 / TP: Under Review)
Nalco reported disappointing 4QFY2012 results. The companys net sales
declined by 2.0% yoy to `1,785cr (below our estimate of `2,524cr). Raw-material
cost as a percentage of net sales stood at 13.9% in 4QFY2012 compared to
12.2% in 4QFY2011. Further, power cost as a percentage of net sales stood at
28.5% in 4QFY2012 compared to 25.7% in 4QFY2011. Hence, EBITDA
decreased significantly by 32.2% yoy to `306cr and EBITDA margin contracted by
760bp yoy to 17.15%. Other income, however, grew by 63.9% yoy to `159cr in
4QFY2012. Consequently, net profit decreased by 7.5% yoy to `282cr
(significantly above our estimate of `115cr). We recommend Reduce on the stock;
our target price is under review.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
8,474
12.7
657
2.6
5.6
23.0
1.3
10.5
1.3
FY2014E
9,024
16.3
922
3.6
7.6
16.4
1.2
7.9
1.3
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (22/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
785
607
29
1,108
(29)
Tata Power Ltd. - Consolidated (22/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
6,153
4,986
23
6,646
(7)
EBITDA
1,515
1,287
18
1,003
51
EBITDA margin (%)
24.6
25.8
Net profit
605
627
15.1
(4)
263
130
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Tata Global Beverage Ltd. - Consolidated (23/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
1,687
1,567
1,793
(6)
EBITDA
180
158
14
181
(1)
EBITDA margin (%)
10.7
10.1
70
85
Net profit
10.1
(17)
64
10
Rural Electrification Ltd. (23/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
759
700
770
(1)
Reliance Power - Consolidated (24/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
545
495
10
457
19
EBITDA
179
156
15
140
28
EBITDA margin (%)
32.8
31.5
Net profit
188
187
30.6
1
204
(8)
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Economic and Political News
RBI imposes restrictions on forex dealers as rupee breaches 55-mark

Government to provide `38,500cr subsidy to oil companies for 4QFY2012
Lokayukta court orders probe against Yeddyurappa, Nirani
White paper on black money a damp squib, states the obvious
Corporate News
COT panel sets 2G price 17% above TRAIs

BHEL bags contract for 1,320MW Solapur power project
JSW Steel output up 35% in April at 715,000 tonnes
Dr. Reddy's launches much-delayed acidity drug in the U.S.
Government fixes turnover target of `68,000cr for MMTC
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 22, 2012
Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Godawari Ispat
May 23, 2012
Rural Elec.Corp., Tech Mahindra, Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories
May 24, 2012
Reliance Power, GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi
May 25, 2012
ITC, NHPC, BPCL, Reliance Infra., Sun TV Network, Crompton Greaves, Suzlon Energy, MOIL, Jyoti Structures
May 26, 2012
Rcom, Jagran Prakashan, Sarda Energy, TVS Srichakra
May 27, 2012
May 31, 2012
NMDC, IOC, Motherson Sumi, Bharat Forge, Britannia, Bajaj Electrical, Amara Raja Batteries, Indoco Remedies,
Subros
ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, United Spirits, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma,
Ipca labs, Nagarjuna Const., Prakash Industries, PVR
GAIL, M&M, Colgate, Tata Chemicals, HDIL, Page Industries, BGR Energy , PTC India, Anant Raj, GIPCL, Simplex
Infra, Greenply
-
June 01, 2012
Mphasis
June 02, 2012
May 28, 2012

May 29, 2012
May 30, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
UK
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
CPI (YoY)
US
Existing home sales
May 23, 2012
US
New home sales
Thousands
Mar-12
328.00
338.00
May 24, 2012
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
12-May-12
370.00
370.00
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
1.70
1.70
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Apr-12
52.20
52.00
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
46.20
47.00
UK
GDP (YoY)
Mar-12
--
--
May 29, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
Apr-12
69.20
70.00
May 31, 2012
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
% Change
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands
Apr-12
19.00
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
Mar-12
2.20
1.80
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
6.10
--
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Apr-12
115.00
155.00
US
Unnemployment rate
Apr-12
8.10
8.10
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
53.30
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
24.28
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
(5.71)
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
50.50
--
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
May 22, 2012
June 01, 2012
June 06, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
June 07, 2012
UK
BOE Announces rates
June 09, 2012
China
China
Value
Apr-12
(19.90)
(20.50)
% Change
Mar-12
3.50
3.10
Millions
Mar-12
4.48
4.61
May-12
1.00
--
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
--
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
--
Market Strategy
May 22, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
6.0
3.7
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
5.3
6.0
7.0
4.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
1.1
2.0
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Mar-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
48.0
Oct-11
0.0
Sep-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Feb-12
(5.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Jan-12
(3.5)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Jun-11
Apr-11
6.0
9.5
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
123
2,391
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
17.6
15.4
3.7
3.2
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.4
United Phosphorus
Buy
117
183
5,386
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.8
6.4
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
275
345
2,349
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
9.4
8.4
2.2
1.8
26.5
23.6
0.8
0.7
Apollo Tyres
Buy
85
100
4,302
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
7.1
6.4
1.3
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,638
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.3
8.4
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
476
514
719
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.5
8.3
2.4
1.9
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,522
1,835
44,052
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.2
12.0
5.3
4.2
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
309
372
7,186
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.8
11.6
2.7
2.3
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,947
9,429
28,092
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.3
19.0
5.0
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
94
164
322
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
118
146
10,064
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
16.7
13.2
2.9
2.5
18.6
20.3
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings
Neutral
1,540
2,559
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
13.1
11.6
2.8
2.3
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,870
2,280
37,339
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.3
12.6
6.3
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
77
113
318
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
647
793
39,752
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
14.4
12.5
2.6
2.2
18.9
19.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,208
1,510
34,886
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
13.9
12.0
2.0
1.7
15.3
15.5
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
165
216
6,395
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.6
11.5
3.2
2.6
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
29
176
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.0
5.9
0.7
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
262
312
70,451 191,183 210,301
12.8
12.8
39.4
43.6
6.6
6.0
2.4
1.8
40.4
34.3
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
34
55
1,596
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
6.7
6.1
1.2
1.0
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
710
498
15,049
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
39.0
34.2
5.2
4.7
14.4
14.6
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Reduce
290
274
2,094
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
10.7
9.6
1.8
1.6
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
206
50,531
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
8.8
8.6
1.7
1.5
21.3
18.9
1.0
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
167
221
1,497
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
13.4
10.6
2.7
2.3
21.2
23.8
0.6
0.4
Crompton Greaves
Buy
119
164
7,608
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
10.9
10.1
1.9
1.6
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
38
67
313
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.5
2.8
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
51
73
1,316
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.9
4.2
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,526
2,609
1,719
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.3
7.0
1.6
1.4
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
428
5,104
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
14.4
15.1
2.7
2.4
20.2
16.9
0.8
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,145
21,495
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.2
14.1
2.8
2.6
18.0
19.0
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
143
21,968
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.1
13.6
2.8
2.5
18.5
19.4
1.8
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
75
2,296
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.6
5.9
0.6
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
64
79
781
1,880
2,201
19.0
22.6
12.2
16.4
5.3
3.9
0.6
0.5
11.9
14.3
0.6
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
139
3,303
3,434
3,777
25.5
26.1
14.1
18.1
9.8
7.7
1.4
1.2
15.2
16.9
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,557
8,908
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
16.9
11.5
4.1
3.5
21.6
25.8
1.3
1.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,409
38,623
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.2
14.5
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.8
204
302
1,073
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
7.2
6.6
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
265
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.8
5.1
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,131
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.4)
(23.9)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
117
166
3,904
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.8
6.9
1.2
1.0
16.1
15.8
2.6
2.4
ITNL
Buy
165
265
3,203
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.5
6.2
1.1
0.9
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
45
79
1,198
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
9.6
7.4
0.6
0.5
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
63
104
13,460
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
15.1
12.6
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.7
2.2
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,189
1,553
72,814
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
16.8
15.6
2.5
2.2
16.1
15.3
1.4
1.2
Madhucon Proj
Buy
46
70
341
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
10.0
9.9
0.5
0.5
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
32
76
829
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
9.3
6.0
0.3
0.3
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
86
600
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.1
5.9
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
46
1,529
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
15.9
10.1
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
132
199
1,977
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
13.0
11.6
2.1
1.8
17.6
16.3
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
211
316
1,042
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.7
6.0
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
146
166
7,323
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.8
3.5
0.7
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
107
5,962
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.8
4.2
0.7
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
963
1,476
39,848
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.3
6.9
1.5
1.3
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
666
925
26,057
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
318
411
18,246
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.2
4.5
0.9
0.7
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
48
53
2,845
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.2
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
393
522
17,390
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.7
4.2
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
76
5,569
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.5
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
406
486
6,015
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Buy
86
111
3,009
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
3.7
3.3
0.6
0.5
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
411
7,028
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.3
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
641
94,721
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.2
16.9
4.0
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
497
567
116,810
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
17.6
14.0
3.4
2.9
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
811
1,174
93,185
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
11.9
10.0
1.4
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
Buy
J & K Bank
90
117
11,442
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
183
197
7,843
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.4
4.2
0.8
0.7
18.2
16.9
80
96
6,396
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
4.9
3.7
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
Accumulate
896
952
4,345
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.1
4.9
0.9
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
242
286
12,225
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.9
7.9
1.8
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
219
274
6,401
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
723
1,015
24,512
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.7
4.1
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
2,514
1,399
1,596
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.8
6.3
5.9
1.1
1.0
18.7
17.5
St Bk of India
Buy
2,007
2,486
134,706
68,925
80,565
3.7
3.7
236.6
282.7
8.5
7.1
1.4
1.2
18.6
19.3
Syndicate Bank
Buy
89
131
5,363
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.4
3.0
0.5
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
68
4,520
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.0
3.8
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
203
276
11,198
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
57
78
2,063
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.1
2.5
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
54
2,668
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.1
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
321
450
11,366
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.5
7.7
2.0
1.6
23.1
23.3
3,745
35,920
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
29.9
25.2
10.2
8.0
38.0
35.4
3.1
2.6
528
650
6,305
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
23.6
18.7
9.7
7.2
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,218
16,563
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
32.3
28.6
38.5
31.1
129.4
120.1
5.4
4.7
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
105
18,283
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.3
21.4
9.2
7.5
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,672
11,239
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
26.0
21.7
8.0
6.4
34.0
32.9
3.3
2.7
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
553
18,815
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.2
20.4
6.7
5.4
31.3
38.4
3.4
2.8
HUL
Neutral
427
92,243
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
30.2
26.0
22.6
17.7
82.7
76.2
3.5
3.0
ITC
Accumulate
235
252
183,928
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
25.7
22.4
8.2
6.8
34.8
33.1
6.1
5.2
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
171
10,512
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
25.7
21.0
6.9
5.4
30.0
28.8
2.3
1.9
Nestle*
Neutral
4,668
45,007
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
39.1
31.6
24.0
16.3
73.0
61.6
5.2
4.2
Tata Global
Buy
107
136
6,605
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
18.0
15.0
1.6
1.6
8.9
10.2
0.8
0.8
HCL Tech
Buy
480
560
33,249
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
12.7
11.2
2.8
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.4
1.2
Hexaware
Accumulate
118
128
3,498
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.0
11.0
2.8
2.4
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Buy
2,345
2,792
134,628
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
14.8
13.4
3.3
2.8
22.5
20.8
2.9
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
167
177
1,860
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.9
9.0
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
123
114
2,189
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.7
10.8
2.5
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.1
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
70
89
8,238
7,142
8,042
15.4
15.0
7.7
8.3
9.2
8.5
1.3
1.1
13.8
13.0
0.8
0.6
Mindtree
Neutral
608
2,468
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.3
10.4
2.1
1.8
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.8
Mphasis
Accumulate
381
433
8,001
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.8
9.2
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.8
NIIT
Buy
40
52
655
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.6
4.5
0.9
0.8
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
TCS
Accumulate
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
IT
350
1,398
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.4
8.7
1.4
1.3
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.8
1,209
1,276
236,608
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.1
17.1
5.8
4.7
30.5
27.7
3.9
3.3
Buy
611
750
7,790
6,030
6,511
16.3
15.7
81.1
87.0
7.5
7.0
1.5
1.3
20.1
18.0
1.3
1.0
Accumulate
382
430
93,976
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
15.2
13.3
2.8
2.5
18.6
18.3
1.9
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
200
269
3,666
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.8
12.4
3.3
2.8
24.1
24.4
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
113
170
2,666
2,255
2,555
17.8
18.3
10.0
12.0
11.4
9.4
1.6
1.4
14.7
15.4
0.9
0.8
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
83
137
2,628
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
10.9
9.2
3.7
3.3
34.6
37.7
1.7
1.6
PVR
Neutral
147
381
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
11.8
9.3
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.6
Sun TV Network
Neutral
258
10,185
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
12.4
10.8
2.9
2.4
26.0
25.1
3.8
3.0
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
436
9,250
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.1
7.4
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.1
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
310
351
196,092
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
12.9
11.8
3.5
2.9
30.4
27.0
2.0
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
19
27
656
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.0
5.8
0.3
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
116
139
49,077
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
7.8
7.0
1.5
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.1
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
110
21,117
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.5
5.9
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
611
663
13,624
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.2
6.9
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Neutral
257
4,313
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
10.5
9.7
1.6
1.5
16.1
15.8
2.3
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
415
593
2,670
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
7.0
6.2
1.0
0.9
15.6
15.3
1.6
1.2
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Sell
NMDC
Accumulate
61
51
15,670
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
24.0
17.4
1.3
1.3
5.6
7.5
1.5
1.4
169
185
66,905
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.1
8.2
2.2
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.5
3.0
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
91
102
37,588
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
6.9
6.3
0.8
0.7
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
194
206
16,843
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.4
4.4
0.9
0.8
23.5
19.5
0.5
0.2
Sterlite Inds
Buy
100
123
33,522
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
6.0
5.2
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.4
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
402
503
39,062 141,358 142,265
11.1
13.7
45.8
58.9
8.8
6.8
0.8
0.8
10.0
11.7
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
324
372
61,783
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.3
6.7
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.9
2.1
GAIL
Buy
320
392
40,629
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.0
8.7
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
247
319
211,235 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.0
7.3
1.4
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
0.9
Reliance Industries
Buy
696
872
227,745 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.6
9.9
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
49
91
916
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.4
5.3
1.8
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
108
175
3,147
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.8
7.4
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.9
0.8
Aventis*
Neutral
2,107
4,851
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.2
20.3
3.9
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
771
953
15,777
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.8
15.2
4.6
3.7
25.4
24.8
2.6
2.0
Cipla
Buy
313
379
25,115
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
19.0
16.6
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.8
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,651
27,979
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.7
17.8
4.1
3.4
22.4
21.0
2.7
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
47
92
375
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.1
4.1
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,039
17,269
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.8
24.7
7.7
6.7
30.8
29.0
5.6
4.9
Indoco Remedies
Buy
59
665
543
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
1.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
16.4
16.9
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
342
443
4,296
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.4
40.6
10.5
8.4
2.6
2.1
27.8
27.7
1.6
1.3
Lupin
Buy
544
646
24,305
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
18.3
16.8
4.8
3.8
27.0
25.2
2.8
2.2
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
128
178
900
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.7
5.8
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
490
20,694
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.7
16.5
5.1
4.2
43.1
28.1
1.8
1.7
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
593
634
61,079
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
22.2
20.6
4.5
3.8
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
269
342
3,365
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.0
5.6
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
61
98
920
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
5.9
6.0
0.6
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.0
0.9
NTPC
Buy
144
201
118,611
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
11.6
10.2
1.5
1.3
13.0
13.5
2.3
2.1
52
78
1,536
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.2
4.1
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.6
2.7
189
32,176
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.8
14.1
1.3
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.8
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
63
115
2,646
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.0
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
2.9
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
295
112,065
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.5
13.4
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
82
27,203
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
25.5
17.3
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.7
1.5
Rcom
Neutral
66
13,612
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
15.6
9.9
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.0
1.7
224
245
2,235
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
12.2
10.1
2.7
2.2
23.9
24.3
0.6
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Accumulate
CRISIL
Neutral
1,050
7,368
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
30.6
26.3
13.8
11.1
50.9
46.9
7.1
5.9
Finolex Cables
Buy
37
61
570
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
4.9
3.7
0.6
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
91
124
1,769
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.3
6.5
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
219
298
528
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.4
4.4
1.2
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.6
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,019
3,367
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.3
24.7
17.5
14.0
64.2
63.1
3.7
2.9
Sintex
Buy
52
129
1,421
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
3.8
3.3
0.5
0.4
13.1
13.4
0.7
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
266
439
249
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.0
3.4
0.8
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
31
1,499
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(9.1)
13.0
(12.5)
26.4
0.5
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
58
108
366
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.4
6.4
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 21, 2012
Market Outlook
May 22, 2012

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

May 22, 2012

US markets rebounded as traders picked up stocks at reduced levels following the

OIL & GAS

L&T bags orders worth `7,44cr

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 18, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 21, 2012)

L&T bags orders worth `7,44cr

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Tata Power Ltd. - Consolidated (22/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Global Beverage Ltd. - Consolidated (23/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Rural Electrification Ltd. (23/05/2012)

Reliance Power - Consolidated (24/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

RBI imposes restrictions on forex dealers as rupee breaches 55-mark

COT panel sets 2G price 17% above TRAIs

May 22, 2012

Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Godawari Ispat

May 23, 2012

Rural Elec.Corp., Tech Mahindra, Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories

May 24, 2012

Reliance Power, GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi

May 25, 2012

May 26, 2012

Rcom, Jagran Prakashan, Sarda Energy, TVS Srichakra

May 27, 2012

May 31, 2012

June 01, 2012

June 02, 2012

May 28, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Existing home sales

May 23, 2012

New home sales

May 24, 2012

Initial Jobless claims

GDP nsa (YoY)

May 29, 2012

May 31, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Qtrly GDP YoY%

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

May 22, 2012

June 01, 2012

June 06, 2012

ECB announces interest rates

June 07, 2012

BOE Announces rates

June 09, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Industrial Production (YoY)

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI