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STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
The two former partners fight for control of territory once united under Arturo Beltran Leyva has spread from the former BLO headquarters in Morelos state to neighboring regions of Guerrero, Mexico, Puebla and Hidalgo states.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
gaining leverage over drug trafficking along the South Texas-Mexico border, turf which Sinaloa had for many years viciously fought over with the Gulf Cartel and their former enforcement arm, Los Zetas. According to local and regional press accounts, the New Federation has wrested the strategic area of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, from the Zetas. STRATFOR sources and some open sources also report that the New Federation tended to be on the winning side in most battles along the South Texas-Mexico border. The Zetas reportedly have had to retreat to Nuevo Laredo and then westward toward Nuevo Leon state capital Monterrey, Mexicos third-largest city. Monterrey has since experienced a noticeable uptick in violence and cartel activity, including everything from kidnappings to targeted executions. In one instance, between 30 and 50 armed men traveling in up to 10 vehicles kidnapped a total of six people early April 21 from the Holiday Inn at the corner of Padre Mier and Garibaldi streets. The previous day, the body of transit police officer Gustavo Escamilla Gonzalez, who had gone missing April 15, was thrown from a moving vehicle into Lazaro Cardenas Avenue in the Monterrey suburb of San Pedro Garza Garcia. Four flowers and a banner signed by the New Federation reading This is what happens to those that support the [expletive] Los Zetas were attached to his corpse, along with a list of 20 other names of law enforcement officials who allegedly support the Zetas. The Monterrey area has long been a Zeta stronghold, meaning the New Federation can be expected to continue to direct its efforts against the Zeta support structure in the Monterrey region as it continues its offensive. Whether the New Federation can destroy Los Zetas completely remains to be seen. Los Zetas are ruthless, formidable opponents who very much remain a force to be reckoned with. STRATFOR sources report that Los Zetas could be preparing to launch a large-scale counterassault in the Tamaulipas border region in the near future, which naturally would amplify the violence. Should the New Federation eliminate Los Zetas from the drug-trafficking scene, it is unclear whether the alliance would stay intact, especially given the past animosity between the Sinaloa Federation and the Gulf Cartel. Rival organized crime groups throughout the world frequently form alliances based on newly shared interests, but once their respective goals have been attained, these alliances typically fall by the wayside, leaving each organized crime group free to pursue its own selfish interests. Should the New Federation survive the destruction of Los Zetas, it could become the dominant criminal entity in the region, something that would restore balance and stability to Mexicos security environment.
Juarez
Juarez, Chihuahua state, remains the most violent city in Mexico. The conflict between the Juarez cartel and the Sinaloa Federation has raged for nearly two and a half years. The struggle has taken many forms, from cartel-backed street gangs battling each other block by block, to the military and federal police battling for control of the city from the cartels. Dramatic changes in the operating environment in Juarez have emerged thus far in 2010. In one important change that has greatly affected Juarez, security responsibility nationwide has been transferred from the Mexican military to the federal police. Mexican President Felipe Calderon sees the cartel wars as falling within the jurisdiction of law enforcement, but the extent of the corruption in the countrys federal police upon his 2006 arrival in office forced him to rely on the military for the brunt of security operations against the cartels until January. After extensive reforms in the federal police, newly trained and vetted federal police agents took over all aspects of security operations within Juarez city limits, including the citys emergency call center (similar to the 911 centers in the United States). The military now operates in rural, open areas outside the city, where their training and equipment is better suited. The effectiveness of this new strategy remains to be seen. The Mexican government will re-evaluate aspects of the federal police strategy in December. As it stands right now, no significant arrests have been made and the violence in the greater Juarez area is on pace with the levels seen in 2009.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department announced Feb. 24 that Washington plans to embed intelligence agents and operatives in the Juarez Intelligence and Operations Fusion Center. About a month later, on March 22, Mexican war college head Gen. Benito Medina said that he believed Mexico needed international aid in the fight against the cartels. Having U.S. personnel operate openly in Mexico would touch on strong political and cultural sensitivities, something that has stood in the way of increased U.S. operational aid to Mexico. Medinas statement shows, however, that sentiment in Mexico could be changing. At the very least, it suggests there may be room for maneuver around the issue. Shortly after Medinas comments, a U.S. intelligence report leaked April 8 that the Sinaloa Federation had taken over primary control of drug trafficking in the Juarez area from the Juarez cartel. The information was later confirmed by the FBI. The intelligence report cited information from confidential informants involved in the drug trade and the noticeable shift in the proportion of Sinaloa drugs being seized on the U.S. side of the border. This does not mean the Juarez cartel is out of commission, but rather that it has lost control of its core turf. The Juarez cartels core geography is centered around the Juarez Valley, which stretches from Ciudad Juarez along the Texas border down to El Porvenir. It maintains some degree of influence throughout the rest of Chihuahua. The loss of the Juarez cartels home turf leaves the organization without a place to retreat to, and the cartel has made it very clear that it will stand and fight to the death. Indeed, violence has spiked yet again in the region in recent weeks since the announcement of the Sinaloa takeover, with 20 executions on April 28 alone, and an April 24 ambush attack on a federal police patrol that killed six federal agents and a teenage bystander. The Juarez area has already seen more than 870 drug-related murders in 2010 (there were about 2,700 deaths there in 2009).
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
It has become clear that the Sinaloa Federation is the dominant organization in the area, as it appears to have superior funding and manpower. This leaves little hope that the Juarez cartel can reclaim its plaza. The only hope the Juarez cartel has of remaining relevant on the Mexican drug-trafficking scene is to come to some sort of agreement with the Sinaloa Federation. Despite the extreme violence witnessed in recent years between the two organizations, such an agreement is not out of the question. Before this recent conflict, the Juarez cartel was part of the Sinaloa Federation for some five years. That said, an agreement does not appear likely in the near future, meaning violence in the Juarez area will likely persist as the Juarez cartel struggles to hold on to what little territory and market share it still has.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
prompted the U.S. State Department to authorize the departure of family members of U.S. government personnel working in consulates along the U.S.-Mexican border from Tijuana to Matamoros and in Monterrey. Whatever motivated the attacks, a continued campaign against U.S. government facilities and personnel will undoubtedly force Washington to dedicate more resources to dealing with the violence and securing U.S. assets in Mexico.
Outlook
In the coming months, violence associated with the fluid nature of the cartel landscape should steadily increase. With the impending Zeta offensive, already high levels of violence could spike yet again, particularly in the Tamaulipas region. Despite a change in strategy in places like Juarez, Mexican security forces have yet to demonstrate the ability to clamp down on these warring criminal groups enough to reduce violence by any meaningful amount.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
As mentioned, STRATFOR expects the Mexican military to continue to play an integral role in the war against the cartels. Mexicos three main political parties will be closely watching the outcome of Calderons strategies in the coming weeks and months, and will try to leverage these outcomes for political gain in the upcoming 2012 Mexican presidential elections. With Calderons legacy riding on the outcome of the Mexican governments offensive against the cartels, Mexico City might explore other options, including seeking additional foreign help, especially as the resistance to foreign involvement seems to be starting to fade.
2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com
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2010 STRATFOR
Austin, TX 78701
Tel: 1-512-744-4300
www.stratfor.com