Finance - Notes - Topic 7

Topic
Topic
7
7
-
-
Fixed
Fixed
Income
Income
Securities
Securities
David Moreno (Spanish version)
Beatriz Mariano (English version)
Universidad Carlos III
Financial Economics
Teacher: Beatriz Mariano
2
Topic
Topic
7
7
-
-
Fixed
Fixed
Income
Income
Securities
Securities
Outline
Outline
PART I
PART I
1. 1. VALUATION OF FIXED VALUATION OF FIXED
INCOME SECURITIES INCOME SECURITIES
Valuation of fixed income
securities with periodical coupon
payments
Valuation of strips
Computation of accrued interest
2. 2. THE TERM STRUCTURE OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF
INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES
Spot interest rates
The yield curve
PART II
PART II
1. 1. FORWARD INTEREST RATES FORWARD INTEREST RATES
AND THEORIES THAT AND THEORIES THAT
EXPLAIN THE TERM EXPLAIN THE TERM
STRUCTURE STRUCTURE
Forward interest rates
The expectations hypothesis theory
The liquidity-preference theory
The inflation premium theory
2. 2. RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT
Default risk
Interest rate risk: Duration and
Immunization
3
Topic
Topic
7
7
-
-
Fixed
Fixed
Income
Income
Securities
Securities
Objectives
Objectives
Compute the price of different fixed income securities and
understand how it varies with different variables.
Understand how the interest rate varies with maturity and how
this is translated in the term structure of interest rates.
Distinguish between spot and forward rates and learn how to
compute them.
Learn the different theories that explain the term structure of
interest rates.
Learn the types of risk that affect fixed income securities: interest
rate risk and default risk. Learn how to measure interest rate risk
using duration and how to eliminate it (immunization).
Topic
Topic
7
7
-
-
Fixed
Fixed
Income
Income
Securities
Securities
Part
Part
I
I
5
1 1- - VALUATION OF FIXED INCOME SECURITIES VALUATION OF FIXED INCOME SECURITIES
Fixed income securities are securities that promise their
holders the future payment of predetermined cashflows up
to their maturity date.
Fixed income securities represent a loan that the firm that
issues them receives from the investors that buy them.
Most important elements of fixed income securities:
Face value : Principal amount of the loan ( or security) used to calculate the
future regular payments (coupons).
Coupon: the interests payments paid at regular intervals (month, quarter, year,
etc.) which are set at the time of the issue.
Maturity date: Time in the future at which the loan (or security) ceases to exist
and the principal repayment takes place.
Principal repayment or amortization: Repayment of the principal at the
maturity date.
6
Other variables that characterize bonds:
Based on the issue price:
Par Bond
Discount bond (below par)
Premium bond (above par)
Based on repayment value:
At par
Below par
Above par
Types of fixed income securities:
Bonds
Inflation-indexed bonds (tips)
Pure discount or zero-coupon bonds (strips)
Pay a stated coupon at
regular intervals
7
BOND VALUATION:
BOND VALUATION:
A. A. NON NON- -CONSTANT COUPON AMOUNT CONSTANT COUPON AMOUNT
Assume that a fixed income security pays regularly at each
period ( at t=1, 2, 3.n) predetermined cash-flows that can be
represented as follows:
The value of the bond is equal to the sum of the discounted
cash-flows which are promised at time 0:
N
N
N
r
CF
r
CF
r
CF
PV P
) 1 (
...
) 1 ( ) 1 (
2
2
2
1
1
0
+
+ +
+
+
+
= =
t
n
Maturity date
t
n-1
t
2
t
1
Today (t
0
)
CF
1
CF
2
CF
n-1
CF
n
r
1
, r
2
, ..r
N
are the
appropriate spot
interest rate for each
period
8
B. B. CONSTANT COUPON AMOUNT (C) CONSTANT COUPON AMOUNT (C)
Assume that a fixed income security pays regularly at each period
(at t=1, 2, 3.n) a coupon that is equal to C and the bond is repaid
at par. The cash-flows are represented as follows
The value of the bond is calculated as follows:
N
N
N
t
t
t
N
N
r
FV
r
C
r
N C
r
C
r
C
P
) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
...
) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
2
2 1
0
+
+
+
=
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
=

=
t
n
Maturity date
t
n-1
t
2
t
1
Today (t
0
)
C C C C + FV
9
Example Example: : Suppose that today is 2-2-2009, and you are asked to
determine the price of a (Spanish) Treasury bond 3.25, 2-2-2014, whose
principal is repaid with a premium of 10%. The interest rates at 1, 2, 3, 4
and 5 years are equal to 3%, 3.5%, 4%, 4.5% and 5.25% respectively.
Note: The face value of a (Spanish)Treasury bond is 1000.
Solution Solution: :
10
C. C. ZERO COUPON BONDS ZERO COUPON BONDS
Fixed income securities that do not pay any coupon over their lifetime,
the only cash-flow that their holders receive is the principal amount at the
maturity date (it has no explicit return).
If the repayment amount exceeds the amount at which it was issued its
holder has an implicit return.
This are very important securities, which are going to be used to obtain
the spot interest rates and the Yield Curve.
The value of such bond is calculated as follows:
t
N
C
N
Today
(t
0
)
t
1
t
N-1
.
11
Example Example: : Compute the value of a zero-coupon bond with a
face value of 10.000$ issued at 1-1-2004 that matures at 1-1-
2009 if the bonds amortization is at 120%. Suppose that the
spot interest rate at 5 years is equal to 4.5%.
12
COUPON RATE: COUPON RATE:
The interests payments paid at regular intervals.
Example Example: : Suppose that a bond issued by Telefnica pays
an annual coupon of 3.5% and has a face value of 6.000
CURRENT YIELD OR INTEREST YIELD: CURRENT YIELD OR INTEREST YIELD:
Annual coupon payment divided by the bonds market price.
Example Example: : Suppose the market price of the Telefnica
bond is 5650.
13
YIELD TO MATURITY (IRR YIELD TO MATURITY (IRR or or YTM): YTM):
Measures the return obtained by someone that buys the bond today
and holds it up to maturity.
COMPUTATION: It is the single interest rate that equates the
present value of the bonds cash-flows to its price: it is the IRR or
the yield to maturity
Interpretation:
It is the compounded interest rate that would have been
obtained over the lifetime of the bond under the assumption
that the COUPON PAYMENTS ARE REINVESTED at the
same interest rate and the bond is held until maturity.
n
IRR
Coupon
IRR IRR ) 1 (
Ppal
. . .
) 1 (
Coupon
) 1 (
Coupon
today Price
2 1
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
=
14
The Yield to Maturity is a very complex and complete measure of the
return of an individual security. It is affected by:
1. Issue price of the security: at par, below par or above par.
2. Principal Repayment: at par, below par or above par.
3. Coupons: coupon amount, payment frequency monthly, semi-
annually or annually.
Example Example: : Compute the yield to maturity of a two year bond with face
value of 1.000 and coupon rate of 4%, whose market price is equal to
963.69. Principal repayment at par.
15
We are looking for the discount rate or the average interest rate
that equates the price to the PV of the CF:
The IRR can be obtained by trial and error. In the previous case it can
be solved using the formula for the solution of a quadratic equation.
16
Example
Example
using
using
Excel
Excel
The function TIR in Excel
computes the Internal Rate of
Return for the cash-flows paid
out at regular intervals
(monthly, semi-annually,
annually)
This function gives the IRR
expressed in terms of this time
interval.
When the cash-flows are not
paid out at regular intervals use
TIR.NO.PER
17
FLAT PRICE: FLAT PRICE: It is the quoted price of a bond which does not
include the part of the next coupon that is due at a particular
point in time (accrued interest).
The buyer of a bond pays to the seller of the bond
Flat price + accrued interest.
This is know as the full price
ACCRUED INTEREST ACCRUED INTEREST
It is calculated as follows:
Coupon() *
payments coupon e consecutiv o between tw Time
bond the held seller the time of Amount
= AI
18
Example Example: : Today 1-9-2004 you want to buy a (Spanish) Treasury
bond which matures at 31-12-2009. The bond pays an annual
coupon of 7%. Moreover, the quoted price of the bond is 946.88
euros. How much do you pay the seller?
a. 946.88
b. More than 946.88
19
2 2- - THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
Next we are going to see the definition and how to construct the term
structure of interest rates.
Before doing so we need to define the following concept:
SPOT SPOT interest interest rate rate for for the the time time period period [0,t]: [0,t]: The internal rate of
return of a bond of the highest credit quality whose repayment
takes place at t.
It is denominated as
0
R
t
Therefore,
0
R
t
can be obtained using the market prices of strips
(stripped bonds).
Example Example: : The spot interest rate
0
R
t
is obtained using the price
of a strip issued at t
0
that matures at t
t
.
1
) 1 (
/ 1
0
0
0
0

|
|
\
|
=
+
=
t
t
t
t
t
t
P
C
R
R
C
P
20
HOW TO INTERPRET THE SPOT INTEREST RATE: HOW TO INTERPRET THE SPOT INTEREST RATE:
if one period=one year
The spot interest rate is like an average annual
interest
interest
rate
rate
that
that
is
is
obtained
obtained
between
between
[0,t]
[0,t]
.
.
As an
average ANNUAL
average ANNUAL
return
return
corresponding
corresponding
to
to
the
the
period
period
[0,t]
[0,t] given that it is an IRR.
21
Example Example: : Suppose that the
following zero coupon bonds
of the (Spanish) Treasury have
current quoted prices as
follows (face value of the bond
1.000)
Compute the 1-year, 2-year, 3-
year, 4-year and 5-year spot
interest rates.
Bond 1
Payment
Schedule
(years)
Repayment Quoted Price
1 100% 97,561%
2 105% 98,018%
3 110% 97,790%
4 120% 101,013%
5 125% 99,115%
22
Bond 2:
Bond 3:
Bond 4:
Bond 5:
23
If we plot in a graph the spot interest rates computed before for the
corresponding maturities (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years), we obtain the yield curve for
this market.
In the following section we will see why this happens and its
implications but before we need to define forward interest rates.
2,5%
3,5%
4,0%
4,4%
4,75%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
5,0%
1 2 3 4 5
S
p
o
t

i
n
t
e
r
e
s
t

r
a
t
e
s
Maturity (years))
Yield curve of spot rates
24
2
2
-
- THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
CONCLUSION CONCLUSION: This relationship between spot interest rates and maturity
dates is called yield curve.
The shape of the yield curve as of a particular point in time can be very
diverse and it changes over time.
i
Matur.
i
Matur.
i
Matur.
i
Matur.
Topic
Topic
7
7
-
-
Fixed
Fixed
Income
Income
Securities
Securities
Part
Part
II
II
26
2
2
-
FORWARD INTEREST RATE
FORWARD INTEREST RATE
The forward forward interest interest rate rate at at time t time t
0 0
for for the the period period [t [t
1 1
,t ,t
2 2
] ] needs to
satisfy the following equation:
Example Example: : For the simple case with two periods the expression used
to compute the forward interest rate is the following:
Interpretation of the interest rate
0
F
1,2
:
0
F
1,2
is the interest rate that should take place between periods 1 and 2,
such that the return from investing in long-term bonds (buying a bond
that matures in 2 years) is equal to the return of buying a short-term
bond (buying a bond that matures in 1 year) and then reinvesting the
money (buying another 1-year bond).
) (
,
) ( ) (
1 2
2 1 0
0 1
1
0
0 2
2 0
) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (
t t
t t t
t t
t
t
t t
t t
F R R

+ + = +
27
2
2
-
This can be analyzed graphically.
The forward interest rate equates the returns of both
investment strategies:
We will see later that the forward interest rates are very important to
explain the term structure of interest rates and the shape of the yield
curve.
(1+
0
R
2
)
2
(1+
0
R
1
) (1+
0
F
1,2
)
(1+
0
R
1
)(1+
0
F
1,2
)
Buy 2-year bond
Buy 1-year bond
Reinvest in another 1-
year bond
28
2
2
-
REMEMBER THAT : REMEMBER THAT :
In In an an ENVIRONMENT WITH CERTAINTY: ENVIRONMENT WITH CERTAINTY: The
forward interests rate are going to coincide with interest rates
in the future, in order to eliminate arbitrage opportunities.
For example
0
F
1,2
=
1
R
1
In In an an ENVIRONMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY : ENVIRONMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY : This
does not have to be the case
Then, the future spot interest rates (
1
R
1
,
2
R
1
,) are not
known.
However, the forward interest rates for the same time
intervals (
0
F
1,2
;
0
F
2,3
; ) are known today as they are
calculated using the term structure of interest rates.
29
2
2
-
Example Example: : Suppose that you read in todays newspaper that the
1-year and the 2-year spot interest rates are equal to 3% and
4% respectively. Compute the forward interest rate for the
time interval [1,2].
30
Example Example: : Suppose that you read in todays newspaper that the
1-year, 2-year and 3-year spot interest rates are equal to 3%, 4%
and 4.5% respectively. Compute the current forward interest rate
for the period between years 2 and 3?
31
3 3- -THEORIES THAT EXPLAIN THE TERM THEORIES THAT EXPLAIN THE TERM
STRUCTURE STRUCTURE
The definition of forward interest rate is going to be used
to explain the shape of the yield curve.
Each theory assumes that the forward interest rate depends
on some variables.
To simplify, assume there are only two periods.
Remember that:
(1+
0
R
2
)
2
=(1+
0
R
1
)(1+
0
F
1,2
)
32
STRUCTURE STRUCTURE
A. A.
THE EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS THEORY
THE EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS THEORY
Forward interest rates are a function of the expected
future interest rates by all the agents in the market
Therefore, according to this theory:
i. If the agents expect interest rates to increase in the
future, then the yield curve is positively sloped.
ii. If the agents expect interest rates to decrease in the
future, then the yield curve is negatively sloped.
0
F
1,2
= E
0
[
1
R
1
]
33
STRUCTURE STRUCTURE
B. B.
THE LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE THEORY
THE LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE THEORY
Assumes that there is a risk premium (L) for bonds with longer
maturity therefore, the forward interest rates depend on the
expected interest rates for the future and of this liquidity premium.
C. C.
THE INFLATION PREMIUM THEORY
THE INFLATION PREMIUM THEORY
There is a premium associated to inflation risk (), and the bonds
issuers have to compensate bondholders for this risk.
0
F
1,2
= E
0
[
1
R
1
]+L
1
0
F
1,2
= E
0
[
1
R
1
]+
1
34
STRUCTURE STRUCTURE
These theories help us to derive the short term rates expected
by the market for future dates (E
0
(
1
R
1
); E
0
(
2
R
1
);)
Example Example: : Suppose that current 1-year, 2-year and 3-year
spot rates are equal to 4.5%, 4% and 3.8% respectively. There
is a liquidity premium of 1.2% and an inflation premium of
0.5%. Compute the one-year interest rate expected for next
year.
Answer Answer: :
35
4
4
-
-
INTEREST RATE RISK MANAGEMENT
There is a general impression that there is no risk associated with fixed
income securities. We are going to see that this is not true. Fixed
income securities are affected by: Default Risk and Interest Rate
Risk.
DEFAULT RISK: DEFAULT RISK:
It refers to the possibility that the issuer fails to make the payments on
the bond/loan.
In other words, that the issuer fails to pay the coupon or fails to repay
the principal at maturity.
It is obvious that this risk is higher the lower the credit quality of the
issuer. For this reason, investors demand a higher return for investing
in securities issued by entities with a lower credit quality (as can be
observed from the following picture).
36
4 4- -
The credit quality of bonds
can be measured by a credit
rating that is issued by a
rating agency, for example:
Moodys
Standard and Poors.
Moodys gives a triple A rating to
the highest quality bonds.
The bonds with a Baa or more
rating are known as investment
grade bonds and many institutional
investors (banks) can only invest in
bonds which have been rated.
The bonds with a rating lower than
Baa are known as junk bonds.
There is a close relationshp
between the rating and the return
of the bond.
37
The bonds issued with maturities longer than one year receive a rating between Aaa and C: from the highest quality rating
to the lowest quality rating. Intermediate ratings above Baa are known as "investment grade." Those below Ba are known as
"speculative grade."
These are the possible ratings:
Aaa
Highest quality and lowest risk bonds. Are known as gilt edged. The
coupon payments, as well as the principal payment, are guaranteed by
a wide and stable margin.
Aa High quality bonds. Together with the Aaa bonds are known as high-
grade bonds. They are not as safe as the Aaa-rating bonds.
A Bonds of medium to high quality. The factors that guarantee the
coupon paymenst and the principal are good enough, but there are
elements that could increase risk.
Baa Bonds known as medium-grade. The coupon and principal payment are
adequatly guaranteed at present but there is some uncertainty in the
long run. Have speculative characteristics.
Ba Protection of coupon and principal payments is moderate. Have
speculative elements and are not safe in the future.
B Bonds which lack investment appeal. The guarantee of coupon and
principal payment, as well as of not violating other terms of the debt
contract, are small in the long run.
Caa Poor quality and high risk bonds. Issuers are in danger of defaulting.
Ca Highly speculative bonds Issuers are usually in default.
C Bonds of insolvent issuers unlikely not to fail with their future debt
obligations.
M
o
o
d
y
s
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d

a
n
d
P
o
o
r
s
4 4- -
38
4
4
-
-
INTEREST RATE RISK: INTEREST RATE RISK:
The risk that arises from the possibility that the value of a portfolio of
fixed income securities (or of a single security) decreases due to the
increase of interest rates.
BOND PRICE-INTEREST RATE RELATIONSHIP.
Its is an inverse relationship.
The bond price is a decreasing function of the corresponding
interest rate.
P
i
39
4
4
-
-
These changes in the price of a portfolio of bonds (or
individual bond) are known as its volatility. We are going to
analyse the factors that affect it.
We should not forget that interest risk only affects
positively or negatively the holder of a bond that has to
sell it prior to the maturity date.
40
4
4
-
-
Which Which factors factors affect affect the the sensitivity sensitivity of of the the price price of of a a bond bond to to
changes changes in in the the interest interest rate rate? ?
Until the 60s
It was believed that it was a function of the lifetime of the bond.
More sensitive, the farther from maturity.
However, people realized that bonds with similar maturity dates
could have different sensitivities to changes in interest rates, for
example, if coupons were different.
Since the 70s
It is known that the sensitivity of the price of a bond to changes in
interest rates depends on the DURATION of the bond.
41
4
4
-
-
Hopewell and Kaufmann (1973) ---- They compute the semi-
elasticity of the value of a fixed income security with respect
to its yield to maturity (y)
Where Duration is defined as:
Duration
y P di
dP
) 1 (
1 1
+
=
(
+
=

=
T
s
t t
s
s
o s
y
C
t t
P
D
1
) (
0
) 1 (
) (
1
MACAULAY MACAULAY
Duration Duration
P is the price of the security, the
Cs are the expected cash-flows
42
4
4
-
-
DURATION:
DURATION:
It is the average maturity of a security (expressed in years)
It is the weighted average of the maturities of the cash-flows
generated by the security, where the weights are the relative weight of
each cash-flow in the total value of the security.
Bond with constant coupon payments
Zero coupon bond
The duration coincides with the maturity.
Example Example: : Compute the duration of a strip issued 4 years ago which
has 9 years and 6 months left to maturity.
(
+
+
+
=

=
T
s
T s
y
FV
T
y
C
s
P
D
1
) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
D= t
s
-t
0
43
4
4
-
-
FACTORS THAT AFFECT DURATION: FACTORS THAT AFFECT DURATION:
Time to maturity (T)
If the time to matutity increases, duration increases
Coupon amount (C)
If the coupon amounts paid out increase, duration decreases.
Interest rates (y)
If the interest rate or the IRR increases, duration decreases.
VOLATILITY : VOLATILITY :
It is the slope of the curve that relates P
bond
and the interest rate.
It is the same as the Modified Duration (D
M
)
Therefore, the bonds price sensitivity is equal to:
y
D
D
M
+
=
1
y D
P
P
M
=
) (
44
4
4
-
-
Example Example: :
1. Compute the Duration and the Modified Duration of a Spanish
Treasury (face value 1,000) with a 5% coupon rate which matures
in 5 years. Assume an yield to maturity of 4%.
2. Determine the change in the bonds price if interest rates increase by
25 basis points.
First, compute the bonds price which is the denominator in the
duration formula:
45
4
4
-
-
Second, compute duration:
Knowing that
Now, compute the Modified Duration:
Finally, compute the price change due to an increase in interest rates of 25
basis points:
(
+
+
+
=

=
T
s
T s
y
N
T
y
C
s
P
D
1
) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
46
4
4
-
-
IMMUNIZATION STRATEGY
IMMUNIZATION STRATEGY:
THE PROBLEM OF AN INVESTOR WITH A
LIMITED INVESTMENT HORIZON
An investor who does not want to be affected by interest rate risk
can immunize his portfolio of fixed income securities. In other
words, if an investor has a limited investment horizon, and does
not wish that the value of his portfolio changes with interest rates
during this time, he should immunize his portfolio.
The easiest immunization technique is to form a portfolio of
fixed income securities whose duration equals the investors
investment horizon.
Portfolio Duration =Investment Horizon
Portfolio Duration =Investment Horizon
47
4
4
-
-
versus
PRICE RISK
- If interest rates
increase, bond price
decreases.
REINVESTMENT REINVESTMENT
RISK RISK
- - If If interest interest rates rates
increase increase, , you you have have better better
options options to to reinvest reinvest the the
coupon coupon already already received received. .
These go in opposite
directions and therefore
allow for
IMMUNIZATION IMMUNIZATION
4
4
-
-
EXAMPLE:
EXAMPLE: Suppose that a family wishes their son to
enroll in a prestigious masters programme in 10 years time.
The cost of such programme is 35,000.
In order to make sure that they will have enough money to
cover for this cost they decide to invest in bonds today such
that the returns of those bonds during 10 years achieve a
future value (V
T
) of 35,000.
Lets show that in this case immunization happens when
the bonds Duration=10.
If the familiy invests in bonds that mature in 14 years
(Duration=13.5)
If during this period interest rates go up
The family gains (V
T
) because the coupons that are received over time can
be reinvested at an higher interest rate.
The family losses (V
T
) at time T (in 10 years) when they sell the bonds in
order to obtain the money to pay for the masters, as when the interest rates
in the market go up the bond prices go down.
4
4
-
-
If Duration=10 years, both movements (reinvestment of
coupon payments and bond price at T) would be identical.
In this case, even if interest rates change FV=35,000.
A very easy example of bonds with duration of 10 years is to
buy zero coupon bonds that mature in 10 years. In this
case, there is no risk related to reinvestment of coupon
payments, and with the sale of the bond before maturity
given that the bond matures exactly when the money for
the masters is needed.
But this can also be done with coupon bonds with duration
equal to 10.
50
USEFUL WEBSITES
MOODYS:
http http:// ://www.moodys.com www.moodys.com
DIRECICIN GENERAL DEL TESORO:
http http:// ://www.tesoro.es www.tesoro.es
AIAF MARKET:
http http:// ://www.aiaf.es www.aiaf.es
MADRID STOCK EXCHANGE
http http:// ://www.bolsamadrid.es www.bolsamadrid.es
ANALISTAS FINANCIEROS INTERNACIONALES
http http:// ://www.afi.es www.afi.es
51
READINGS
Basic or general:
Bodie, Z., Kane, A. and Marcus, A. J. (1999). Investments. McGraw Hill
(Fouth Edition)
Chapters 9 and 10.
Brealey, R.A. and Myers, S.C. (2006). Principles of Corporate Finance. McGraw
Hill
Parts of chapters 23 and 24
Mascareas Prez-Iigo, J. (2002). Gestin de activos financieros de renta fija.
Pirmide.
Chapters 4, 5 and 6.
Specialized:
Navarro, E. and Nave, J. (2001). Fundamentos de Matemticas Financieras. Antoni Bosch
Editor, SA.
Chapters 5 y 6.

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