QUESTION: Energy short falls in Pakistan and its impacts on industrial input and employment?

Energy short fall and its impact on industrial input and employment The economic engine, industry agriculture and all the lifelines of nation depends upon energy. Pakistan has been facing energy shortfall from the past many years. On the social aspect, energy consumption per capita is a key indicator of the quality of life of the citizens and community. Unfortunately in Pakistan, inspire of tall claims and motivation by all governments, real solutions to meet the energy requirements of the nation have never been formulated or achieved. As consequences, Pakistans economic, industrial and social growth has been greatly constrained. Due to an increasing gap in energy demand versus capacity, while successive governments put power generation and availability of gas as a priority on their agenda, unfortunately, all plans of providing adequate and affordable energy to the citizens have failed to materialize. The inability to implement energy projects has been attributed to fiscal constraints, but in reality it is due to paucity of a vision, absence of robust planning and of a commitment to national development. Further there continues to be a basic lack of understanding of the dynamics of the energy sector and market forces. The disastrous results are for all to see, while those in the corridors of power and authority in various ministries, and heads of public sector utilities have moved on, without any remorse or sense of responsibility or accountability. On the current energy crisis, much has been claimed by the past and present governments, discussed and debated in recent months, and numerous articles have appeared in the press and various magazines. The majority of articles have been written by amateurs, or those who clearly do not have an adequate understanding of the energy sector, and the related issues. There is no clear concept of viable solutions or the finances required and time lines for project implementation. Large numbers of users have to be disconnected from the energy supply system to prevent overloading the generating stations (load shedding). On occasions the urban dwellers had to suffer load shedding of 8-10 hours every day. During the same time rural consumers suffered it for up to 20 hours at a stretch. Failure of Government: Almost two years ago the Chairman Water and Power Authority (WAPDA) admitted that his organization could not meet the current demand for electricity. It is surprising such a senior person took so long to discover this problem. The government talked about Pakistans supposedly booming economy but failed to understand the need for meeting the energy needs of the boom. General Musharraf (R) (ex-President) after becoming Chief Executive used to talk about building dams especially Kalabagh Dam very few power plants have been set up since then. The present energy crisis is totally due to Lack of forecasting and plannings: A general block diagram of power system

Any power system has 3 major parts: 1. Generation system 2. Transmission system 3. Distribution system Generally speaking the major technical causes of the shortfall in the availability of Electrical energy in Pakistan is: 1. Insufficient installed generating capacity. 2. Transmission system unable to transmit the greater load now imposed upon it. 3. Grid Stations and related equipment unable to carry the load imposed. 4. Distribution System was built to carry a smaller power and hence unable to cater to Existing demands [Gelling at el 1988].

Impact of energy shortfall in industrial input and employment: 1.Industrial input Industry is facing great decline in its growth rate. The major reasons for this decline can be the global recession, internal security concerns, the high cost of production due to increase in the energy costs etc. Depreciation of Pakistani rupee that significantly raised the cost of imported inputs, rise in inflation rate, and high cost of financing has also effected seriously the growth in the industry. As a result neither the buyers are able to visit frequently Pakistan nor are the exporters able to travel abroad for effectively marketing their products. With an in-depth investigation it was found that the Pakistans textile industry can once again be brought back on winning track if government takes serious actions in removing or normalizing the above mentioned hurdles. Purchasing new machinery or enhancing the quality of the existing machinery and introducing new technology can also be very useful in increasing the research &development (R & D) related activities that in the modern era are very important for increasing the industrial growth of a country. 2.Employment Unemployment is one of the biggest problems of Pakistan. That person is unemployed who has ability to do work and is willing to do work but is unable to get job opportunity. In the current situation more than 30 lakh people are unemployed in Pakistan and unemployment ratio is more than 12%. And due to energy shortfall every sector is disturbed. This has created a situation of chaos among the people who have no way to go to find proper jobs for themselves.

Suggestions: 1. Short term solution Line losses control The methodology that will provide immediate relief is the conservation and judicious use of whatever little energy is being produced in the country. The current losses in the system are 24% of the total power generated. These include losses incurred during transmission and distribution as well as due to theft. Wasteful consumption such as businesses remaining open till late at night and unnecessarily brightly lit also contribute to losses. By reducing these to 10 % we can save up to 300 MW of energy. The government should enforce shutting down businesses and forbidding excessive and unnecessary lighting during late hours. Improving Power generating capacity It is an unfortunate fact that WAPDA and IPPs thermal power plants are running at an average plant factor of about 50 percent. This means they are producing only 50% of their installed capacity. They are not being used to deliver their full power. Internationally it is quite usual to have thermal power plants operating at 75 to 80 percent plant factor. Operating the power stations at higher plant factors demand better maintenance procedures there. It is felt that operating the plants at a higher plant factor will cause them to deliver 20 to 30 %more energy to the system. This will alleviate the present shortage to a significant extent. Improving the power plant factor of the existing plant is far more economical then setting up new power plants. 2. Long term solution Coal Potential in Pakistan Pakistan has the 5th largest coal reserve in the World, amounting to approximately 185.175 billion Tones. Thar has largest reserve in the country that is approximately 75.5 billion Tones. Pakistan can generate more than 100,000 MW of electricity for next 30 years if it uses all coal available to it. At present Pakistan generates only 0.79% of Its total electricity from coal [WAPDA Annual report 2007-08]. Coal contributes Approximately 39% of the total global primary energy demand. Share of coal in total Electricity produced in different countries is PAKISTAN USA UK China 0.79% 56% 58% 81%

Hydro-electric power potential Pakistan has a huge potential to produce electric power from hydro-electric power plants. In table presents a view of electric power generation with power plants whose feasibility study has been completed or is under process. Construction of all these plants gives almost 55,000 MW. This easily meets the electrical energy requirement of Pakistan for next 20-25 years.These plants can give low cost electricity. As they are run of river plants, they can be easily installed with minimum cost and in short time.

References: 1. Demand side management Concept and Methods, C.W. Gelling and J.H Chamberlain, Fairmont presses Lilburn, Georgia 1988. 2. FBS, 1998, 50 years of Pakistan in statistics: Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), Government of Pakistan. Vol.1, p.124-137 3. WAPDA Annual Report 2007-08, Water and Power Development Authority Pakistan. P. 78-85 4. Economy of Pakistan Wikipedia 5.Challenges for Pakistan. Asian Development Review Pakistan Textile Journal (2009). 6. The nation. 7. Google 8. Living with energy shortfall, Jon van till